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BAUER Buy EUR 29.10 BAUER RESEARCH (CDAX, Construction & Materials) Value Indicators : EUR Share data : Description : Buy (Hold) DCF: 29.06 Bloomberg: B5A GR Supplier of specialist foundation SotP: 28.49 Reuters: B5AG.DE engineering services and EUR 29.10 (EUR 28.00) ISIN: DE0005168108 construction equipment Market Snapshot : EUR m Shareholders : Risk Profile (WRe): 2018e Market cap: 313 Freefloat 51.8 % Beta: 1.6 EUR Price 18.30 No. of shares (m): 17 Bauer Family 48.2 % Price / Book: 0.7 x Upside 59.0 % EV: 1,053 Equity Ratio: 27 % Freefloat MC: 162 Net Fin. Debt / EBITDA: 3.3 x Ø Trad. Vol. (30d) : 934.75 th Net Debt / EBITDA: 4.0 x Sales miss priced in but valuation & rising profitability make this a Buy BAUER is a globally active provider of construction engineering equipment and services, specialising in large-scale foundation and excavation work. With a global market share of approx. 20%, it is the world market leader for specialist foundation engineering equipment (Equipment segment: 40% of group sales in FY 2017) and a services provider in the field of specialist foundation engineering worldwide (Construction segment 47% of group sales in FY 2017). The company offers environmental technology for water treatment, and provides services such as deep drilling and well construction for the mining sector and raw materials exploration (Resources segment 13% of group sales in FY 2017). With a company history going back more than 200 years and a vast portfolio of successfully completed projects, many of which are world- famous landmarks such as the Burj Khalifa in Dubai, BAUER boasts an impressive track record and benefits from an established reputation, which is an important asset in gaining new business. ° By no means a defensive play - So far, BAUER’s share price has been volatile in 2018. The reasons are clear: an unfavourable arbitration procedure in Hong Kong, a stated flat guidance for the FY 2018, and a mixed H1 in which higher yoy profitability was offset by weaker sales development. This caused investors to shy away from ownership of the stock, in our view. Further, the project-based nature of BAUER’s business leads to an inherent lack of visibility in sales and earnings development. ° - but underlying market development and valuation speak for themselves. We believe that the favourable market situation, especially the ongoing construction boom and the normalisation of the equipment market, should put BAUER in an excellent position as the market leader in the equipment segment and should strengthen its profitability. BAUER’s geographical diversification and its hub strategy allow the company to reallocate staff and equipment from less active (e.g. Russia, Qatar) to more promising markets (e.g. Far East, Europe). For H1, BAUER reported a significant decline in sales while profitability increased yoy. Considering the company’s strong FY 2017 basis, the typically weak H1 results, and its flat sales and moderate EBIT guidance for FY 2018, we are confident in the company’s operative ability to meet its stated profitability guidance despite a potential sales miss. The improving business conditions and increasing profitability do not seem to be fully reflected in the market valuation. ° Valuation: In the course of a change of analysts covering BAUER, we revised our valuation model and recommendation for the stock. Our new DCF-based price target indicates a fair value per share of EUR 29.10. This takes into consideration the high indebtedness of BAUER and the cyclical nature of its business. The increased price target results from the sole consideration of the DCF valuation which is a more suitable method to assess BAUER’s unique financial position and increased profitability outlook. Nevertheless, a peer-group based Sum-of- the-Parts valuation utilising P/E and EV/sales multiples, shows fair value indications which support our determined fundamental value. Given the significant upside potential to our price target, we resume coverage with Buy . FY End: 31.12. CAGR in EUR m (17 -20e) 201. 2015 2016 2010 2011e 2019e 2020e Sales 1.1 % 1,376 1,379 1,397 1,668 1,631 1,675 1,725 Change Sales yoy -1.9 % 0.2 % 1.3 % 19.4 % -2.2 % 2.7 % 3.0 % Gross profit margin 48.5 % 49.2 % 50.7 % 44.7 % 45.4 % 45.9 % 46.1 % EBI2 A 3.2 % 171 185 158 183 183 195 200 Margin 12.4 % 13.4 % 11.3 % 10.9 % 11.2 % 11.7 % 11.6 % EBI2 4.8 % 76 91 68 90 90 99 103 Margin 5.6 % 6.6 % 4.9 % 5.4 % 5.5 % 5.9 % 6.0 % Net income 141.0 % 14 30 11 3 23 32 38 EPS 141.0 % 0.85 1.73 0.66 0.16 1.33 1.89 2.24 PS 26.0 % 0.00 0.15 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.15 0.20 Dividend Yield n.a. 0.9 % 0.8 % 0.5 % 0.5 % 0.8 % 1.1 % Rel. Performance vs C A: : 5C5PS 2.08 -1.78 1.54 5.26 -1.95 0.77 0.81 1 month: 2.2 % EV 7 Sales 0.7 x 0.8 x 0.7 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 x 0.6 x EV 7 EBI2 A 5.9 x 5.7 x 6.4 x 5.9 x 5.8 x 5.3 x 5.1 x 6 months: -16.0 % EV 7 EBI2 13.3 x 11.6 x 14.8 x 12.0 x 11.8 x 10.5 x 10.0 x Year to date: -34.2 % P 7 E 19.6 x 9.8 x 19.9 x 134.5 x 13.8 x 9.7 x 8.2 x Trailing 12 months: -27.4 % Net ebt 728 763 782 702 737 725 714 R8E 3.6 % 7.1 % 2.6 % 0.6 % 5.3 % 7.2 % 7.9 % Company events : R8CE (N8PA2) 2.8 % 4.0 % 3.4 % 0.8 % 4.7 % 5.2 % 5.5 % 24.10.18 RS ZRH 9uidance: Total Group revenues EUR 1.8bn. (flat yoy); EBIT EUR 90m; sign. higher Net Inc. 13.11.18 Q3 A n a l y s t Jonas Blum F ULL N O T E Published 14.08.2018 08:15 1 [email protected] +49 40 309537-240 BAUER RESEARCH Sales development Sales by regions EBI2 development in EUR m 2017; in % in EUR m Source: Warburg Research Source: Warburg Research Source: Warburg Research Company Background ° BAUER is a provider of specialist foundation engineering services and construction equipment. It is also active in the areas of environmental technology, water treatment and natural resources ° Construction: specialist foundation engineering services for major infrastructure and building projects, installation of cut-off walls, ground improvement works and related project development services ° Equipment: specialist foundation engineerin g equipment and equipment for related underground drilling operations (mining, oil and gas extraction) ° Resources: bundles the group's activities in the area of water, mineral resources and environmental technology Competitive ;uality ° BAUER is one of the g lobal market leaders for special foundation engineering equipment, specialist foundation engineering services and has a significant footprint across the globe ° BAUER is a best-in-class provider of specialist foundation engineering services with strong reputation in the industry ° A global approach combined with a hub strategy allows staff and equipment to be relocated as required, which lowers the clust er and concentration risks related to project-driven business ° Availability of services and spare parts worldwide and around the clock gives customers crucial planning security. EB2 development Sales by segments Net income development in EUR m 2017; in % in EUR m Source: Warburg Research Source: Warburg Research Source: Warburg Research F ULL N O T E Published 14.08.2018 2 BAUER RESEARCH Summary of Investment Case 4 Company Overview 5 Competitive Quality 6 Reputation and project management are key 6 Worldwide network with more than 110 subsidiaries in 70 countries 6 9lobal leader for specialist foundation engineering equipment 0 Earnings volatility continues but is guidance back on track? 1 Waiting for earnings to catch up with positive sales development 1 Analysis of return on capital 10 Liabilities 10 Capital employed 10 Working capital requirements are significant 11 Cash flows are subject to significant fluctuation 13 Financial situation set to normalise 13 8perating profitability 1. Return on capital employed 16 Growth / Financials 18 Aistorical sales development 11 Geographic diversification helps to alleviate regional slowdowns 18 Long-term drivers: global population growth and urbanisation 19 Population growth and urbanisation 19 Sales development 20 A1 results reveal a miCed picture 23 Change in estimates 24 Valuation 25 C5 model indicates significant upside 25 SotP valuation supports C5 indication 21 Company & Products 30 Company overview 30 Construction 30 Equipment 31 Resources 32 Management board 33 Supervisory board 3. Upcoming personnel changes 3. Shareholder structure 3. Company history and development 3. F ULL N O T E Published 14.08.2018 3 BAUER RESEARCH Summary of Investment Case Investment triggers ° Repeated shortfalls to the guidance combined with covenant breaches are among the main reasons for the share price decline. Weak H1 sales figures have given rise to fresh fears of another guidance miss in FY 2018. We believe the current lack of investor confidence will persist for the foreseeable future. However, if management successfully restores investor confidence, we see potential for share price appreciation simply from an improvement in sentiment towards the stock. ° The current positive outlook for the global construction market (Source: IHS Markit) combined with a normalisation of the market for construction equipment, due to a reduction in competitors and overcapacities, puts BAUER in a comfortable position as the market leader in this segment.
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