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Proceedings of the XVII International Amaldi Conference of Academies of Sciences and National Scientific Societies on Scientific Questions of Global Security

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Proceedings of the XVII International Amaldi Conference of Academies of Sciences and National Scientific Societies on Scientific Questions of Global Security International Amaldi Conferences of Academies of Sciences and National Scientific Societies on Scientific Questions of Global Security ___________________________________________________________________________ XVII International Amaldi Conference of Academies of Sciences and National Scientific Societies on Scientific Questions of Global Security 14-16 March 2008, DESY, Hamburg ___________________________________________________________________________ Proceedings Union of the German Academies of Sciences and Humanities represented by the Academy of Sciences and Humanities in Hamburg Editors: Klaus Gottstein, Götz Neuneck ZNF ___________________________________________________________________________ Impressum Proceedings of the XVII International Amaldi Conference of Academies of Sciences and National Scientific Societies on Scientific Questions of Global Security March 14-16, 2008, Hamburg, Germany Conference homepage http://amaldi2008.desy.de Online proceedings at http://amaldi2008.desy.de/proceedings.html The copyright is governed by the Creative Commons agreement which allows for free use and distribution of the articles for non-commercial activity, as long as the title, the authors’ names and the origin are quoted. Editors: Klaus Gottstein (Max Planck Institute for Physics, Werner Heisenberg Institute, Munich, Germany) Götz Neuneck (Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg – IFSH, Hamburg, Germany) Photo of Participants: Marcel Dickow Photo Selection: Marcel Dickow and Markus Kohler June 2009 DESY-PROC-2009-04 ISBN 978-3-935702-34-8 ISSN 1435-8077 Published by Verlag Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron Notkestraße 85 22607 Hamburg Germany XVII International Amaldi Conference of Academies of Sciences and National Scientific Societies on Scientific Questions of Global Security (DESY, Hamburg, Germany, 14-16 March 2008) Summary The XVII International Amaldi Conference took place on the campus of the German Electron Synchrotron (DESY) in Hamburg under the auspices of the Hamburg Academy of Sciences and at the joint invitation of the president of the Union of German Academies of Sciences and of the Chair of the Amaldi Conferences at the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei in Rome, Prof. Edoardo Vesentini. Organisational support was given by the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, the Center for Science and Peace Research of the University of Hamburg, and by DESY. Sponsors were the Stifterverband für die Deutsche Wissenschaft, the Stiftung Friedensforschung and the Alfred Toepfer Stiftung. Sixty scientists and scholars from 15 countries (Canada, China, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Iran, Israel, Italy, Japan, Korea (South), Norway, Poland, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) attended the three-day conference. In honour of Prof. Wolfgang K. H. Panofsky, co-founder of the Amaldi Conferences who passed away on September 24, 2007, the conference was opened by a newly established “Panofsky Lecture” delivered by his old friend and long-standing associate in arms control and government advising activities, Richard L. Garwin. The topics on the agenda were: 1. Nuclear Policies of the Nuclear Weapon States, 2. Safe Fuel Supply for Civilian Nuclear Power Stations and the Risk of Nuclear Proliferation, 3. The Future of Non-Proliferation, 4. The Risk of Nuclear Terrorism, 5. New Military Technologies such as Directed Energy Weapons. Also discussed were problems of offering independent scientific advice in questions of security policy, the role of the nuclear option in regional conflicts, methods of detection of clandestine nuclear activities, options for the future of nuclear energy and nuclear weapons. i Apart from the presentation of papers there was a panel discussion on these topics. A special feature of the conference was the participation of young scientists who served as rapporteurs on the results of the individual sessions, thereby having the opportunity to give an assessment of the problems and the suggested solutions from the point of view of the younger generation. This novelty was widely acclaimed, was recommended for perpetuation in future Amaldi Conferences and is hoped to contribute to a permanent regeneration of the Amaldi Conferences. ii Table of Contents Summary i Preface ix Programme xiii Photo of Participants xvi List of Participants xvii Contributions to the Discussion xxiii Opening Session Opening Remarks by Albrecht Wagner, Director of DESY 1 Welcome Address by Cord Jakobeit, Vice President of the Hamburg Academy of Sciences 2 Introductory Remarks by Edoardo Vesentini, Chair of the Amaldi Conferences 4 First Session: The First Panofsky Lecture Chair: Albrecht Wagner Albrecht Wagner (Germany) Introduction to the Panofsky Lecture: Pief’s Contributions To Physics, a Brief Survey, Introducing the Panofsky Lecturer, Richard Garwin 5 Richard Garwin (USA) The First Panofsky Lecture: Pief’s Contributions to Arms Control and Nuclear Disarmament 7 Discussion of Richard Garwin’s Lecture 22 Second Session: The Relationship between Scientists and Policy- Makers in the Field of Arms Control Chair: Edoardo Vesentini Spurgeon Keeny (USA) The Relationship between Scientists and Policy-Makers in the Field of Arms Control 23 John Boright (USA) Academy Influence on the G8 Agenda 29 Discussion of Spurgeon Keeny’s and John Boright’s Lecture 32 iii Third Session: Regional Conflicts and the Nuclear Question Chair: Constanze Eisenbart Rudolf Avenhaus (Germany) On the Conflict about Iran’s Nuclear Program: A Game-Theoretical Analysis 35 Discussion of Rudolf Avenhaus’ Lecture 41 Yair Evron (Israel) Regional Nuclear Deterrence Relationships: Stable or Unstable? 43 Saideh Lotfian (Iran) Regional Security from the Perspective of Iran (with an Emphasis on the Nuclear Issue) 53 Discussion of Yair Evron’s and Saideh Lotfian’s Lecture 58 Aharon Zohar (Israel) Iran; the Oil and the Bomb 63 Discussion of Aharon Zohar’s Lecture 64 Mark Suh (South Korea) Prospect of the Six-Party-Talks and Peaceful Resolution of the North Korean Nuclear Issue 67 Discussion of Mark Suh’s Lecture 77 Fourth Session: Safe Fuel Supply for Civilian Nuclear Power Stations and the Risk of Nuclear Proliferation I Chair: Spurgeon Keeny John Simpson (UK) Strategy Options for the UK’s Separated Plutonium 79 Discussion of John Simpson’s Lecture 83 Tatsujiro Suzuki (Japan) Nuclear Renaissance: Its Expectation, Realities and Security Implications 85 Discussion of Tatsujiro Suzuki’s Lecture 90 Thomas Krieger, Rudolf Avenhaus (Germany) A Quantitative View on Verification of Arms Control and Disarmament Treaties 93 Discussion of Thomas Krieger`s Lecture 101 iv Fifth Session: Safe Fuel Supply for Civilian Nuclear Power Stations and the Risk of Nuclear Proliferation II Chair: Henri Korn Boris Myasoedov, Yuri K. Shiyan, Ivan G. Tananaev (Russia) Proliferation Concerns Connected with Nuclear Fuel Cycle Developments 103 Discussion of Boris Myasoedov’s Lecture 111 Adele Buckley (Canada) Nuclear Renaissance – Verification of Performance 113 Discussion of Adele Buckley’s Lecture 123 John F. Ahearne (USA) Internationalization of the Nuclear Fuel Cycle 127 Discussion of John F. Ahearne’s Lecture 133 Ole Reistad, Styrkaar Hustveit (Norway) Eliminating HEU as Reactor Fuel – Addressing the Need for Acceleration by Measuring HEU Inventories and Progress on Minimization 135 Sixth Session: Detection of Clandestine Nuclear Activities Chair: Alexander Keynan Jerzy Mietelski (Poland) Monitoring of Plutonium in the Air 159 Discussion of Jerzy Mietelski’s Lecture 167 Martin Kalinowski (Germany) Detection of Clandestine Nuclear Weapons Production and Testing by Analyzing Air Samples 169 Discussion of Martin Kalinowski’s Lecture 180 Christopher Watson (UK) Detecting Nuclear and Radiological Material 185 Discussion of Christopher Watson’s Lecture 190 Seventh Session: The Risk of Nuclear Terrorism Chair: John Simpson Wu Jun Zhang Songbai (China) Analysis on the Risk of Nuclear Terrorism 193 v Francesco Calogero (Italy) The Risk of a Nuclear Catastrophe 199 Discussion of Wu Jun Zhang Songbai’s and F. Calogero’s Lecture 213 Eighth Session: New Military Technologies Chair: Richard Garwin Götz Neuneck, Jan Stupl (Germany) High Energy Lasers: A Sensible Choice for Future Weapon Systems? 219 Discussion of Götz Neuneck’s Lecture 236 Ninth Session: Thoughts on the Nuclear Future Chair: Vladimir Nekvasil Harald Müller (Germany) Regime Crisis: the Precarious State of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty at the End of the Bush Administration 243 Discussion of Harald Müller’s Lecture 250 Andrew Mack (Canada) Nuclear 'Breakout': What are the real risks? 253 Discussion of Andrew Mack’s Lecture 267 Tenth Session: Reports Chair: Götz Neuneck Elvira Rosert (Germany) Report on the Second Session – The Relationship between Scientists and Policy-Makers in the Field of Arms Control 269 Andreas Henneka, Miloš Jovanovi (Germany) Report on the Third Session – Regional Conflicts and the Nuclear Question 273 Christoph Pistner, Matthias Englert (Germany) Report on the Fourth Session – Safe Fuel Supply for Civilian Nuclear Power Stations and the Risk of Nuclear Proliferation I 275 Giorgio Franceschini, Simon Hebel (Germany) Report on the Fifth Session – Safe Fuel Supply for Civilian Nuclear Power Stations and the Risk of Nuclear Proliferation II 279 vi Ole Ross (Germany) Report on the Sixth Session – Detection of Clandestine Nuclear Activities 283 Markus Kohler (Germany) Report on the Seventh Session – The Risk of Nuclear Terrorism 285
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