Arms Control and Disarmament
Total Page：16
File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb
Arms Control and Disarmament 50 Years of Experience in Nuclear Education Edited by Paolo Foradori, Giampiero Giacomello and Alessandro Pascolini Arms Control and Disarmament Paolo Foradori • Giampiero Giacomello Alessandro Pascolini Editors Arms Control and Disarmament 50 Years of Experience in Nuclear Education Editors Paolo Foradori Giampiero Giacomello School of International Studies Department of Political and Social University of Trento Sciences Trento, Italy University of Bologna Bologna, Italy Alessandro Pascolini Department of Physics and Astronomy “Galileo Galilei” University of Padua Padua, Italy ISBN 978-3-319-62258-3 ISBN 978-3-319-62259-0 (eBook) https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-62259-0 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017955412 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2018 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the pub- lisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institu- tional affiliations. Cover illustration: Enzo Brandi / EyeEm - Getty Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland To all the friends of ISODARCO CONTENTS Part I Early Attempts to Arms Control 1 1 Technological Aspects of World Security 5 Bernard T. Feld 2 Anti-ballistic Missiles 13 Francesco Calogero 3 International Relations and Game Theory 39 Anatol Rapoport 4 The Origins of MIRV 51 Herbert F. York 5 The Importance of Agreements 65 Thomas Schelling 6 The Fallacy of Thinking Conventionally about Nuclear Weapons 79 Hans J. Morgenthau vii viii COntents 7 Strategic Arms Limitation and Military-Strategic Concepts 91 Michail A. Milstein Part II The Hard Times, 1978–1989 105 8 Radiation Hazards in Fission Fuel Cycles 109 Joseph Rotblat 9 The Dilemma of European Theatre Nuclear Arms Control 125 Lawrence Freedman 10 Nuclear Arms Control: Obstacles to Agreement 143 George Bunn 11 International Systemic Features Inhibiting Disarmament and Arms Control 153 David Carlton 12 The Problem of the Nuclear First-Use Option 161 Cui Liru 13 The Problem of Extended Deterrence in NATO 169 Jane M.O. Sharp 14 Minimum Deterrence and International Security 183 Richard H. Ullman COntents ix Part III After the Cold War 211 15 Weapons on Earth and in Space: Global Security in the New International Situation 215 Richard L. Garwin 16 The Non-proliferation Treaty and the German Choice Not to Proliferate 239 Harald Müller 17 US-Russian Cooperation on Fissile Material Security and Disposition 255 Frank von Hippel and Oleg Bukharin 18 The New Verification Game and Technologies at Our Disposal 273 Patricia Lewis 19 Nuclear Deterrence, Disarmament and Non-proliferation 291 Alexei G. Arbatov 20 Nuclear Abolition or Nuclear Umbrella? Choices and Contradictions in US Proposals 305 Matthew Evangelista Conclusion: ISODARCO as an Epistemic Community 329 Afterword: Historical Notes on ISODARCO 341 Selected Bibliography 351 Index 363 LIST OF AcRONYMS ABM Anti-ballistic Missile ACDA Arms Control and Disarmament Agency AEC Atomic Energy Commission ARPA Advanced Research Project Agency ASAT Anti-Satellite Weapon ASW Anti-Submarine Warfare BAMBI Ballistic Anti-Missile Boost Interceptor BMD Ballistic Missile Defence BWC Biological Weapons Convention CD Conference on Disarmament CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research CFE Conventional Forces in Europe CIA Central Intelligence Agency CIS Commonwealth of Independent States ComSat Communication Satellite CPSU Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union CSCE Conference on Security and Cooperation in Europe CTBT Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty CWC Chemical Weapons Convention DNPE Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Education DPRK Democratic People’s Republic of Korea DSAT Defence Against ASAT DSP Defense Support Program EC European Community xi xii LIST OF ACRONYMS EFTA European Free Trade Area eif Entry Into Force EMP Electromagnetic Pulse ESA European Space Agency EURATOM European Atomic Energy Community FBS Forward-based System FMCT Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty FOBS Fractional Orbital Ballistic System FRP Fire-resistant Pit FSU Former Soviet Union GCD General and Complete Disarmament GEO Geostationary Orbit GLCM Ground-launched Cruise Missiles GPS Global Positioning System HEU Highly-enriched Uranium IAEA International Atomic Energy Agency ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile IDCSP Initial Defense Communication Satellite Program IGO Inter-governmental Organization IMS International Monitoring System IMU Inertial Measurement Unit INF Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces INS Inertial Navigation System IO International Organization IPP Industrial Partnering Program IRBM Intermediate-Range Ballistic Missiles ISODARCO International School on Disarmament and Research on Conflicts ISTC International Science and Technology Centre LEO Low Earth Orbit LEU Low-Enrichment Uranium LOW Launch-on-Warning LRTNF Long-Range Theatre Nuclear Forces LUA Launch-under-Attack MAD Mutually Assured Destruction MAR Multi-Function Array Radar MBFR Mutual and Balanced Force Reductions MDA Missile Defense Act MinAtom Russia’s Ministry of Atomic Energy LIST OF ACRONYMS xiii MIRV Multiple Independently Targetable Re-entry Vehicles MLF Multilateral Force MOX Mixed-Oxide MRBM Medium-Range Ballistic Missiles MRV Multiple Re-entry Vehicle MSR Missile Site Radar NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NGO Non-governmental Organization NPT Non-Proliferation Treaty NSA Non-State Actors NTM National Technical Means OSCE Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe P5 The Five Permanent Members of the United Nations Security Council PAL Permissive Action Link PAR Perimeter Acquisition Radar PBCS Post Boost Control System PLO Palestine Liberation Organisation PTBT Partial Test Ban Treaty RAND Research and Development Corporation RECM Radio-electronic Countermeasure RV Re-entry Vehicles R&D Research and Development SACEUR Supreme Allied Commander Europe SALT Strategic Arms Limitation Talks SAR Synthetic Aperture Radar SBI Space-based Interceptors SBL Space-based Laser SDI Strategic Defense Initiative SLBM Submarine-launched-ballistic Missile SORT Strategic Offensive Reductions Treaty SPD Sequential Payload Delivery System SRAM Short-Range Attack Missile SSAC State Systems of Accounting and Control START Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty SWU Separative Work Unit TACMAR Tactical Multi-Function Array Radar TBM Theatre Ballistic Missile xiv LIST OF ACRONYMS TBT Test Ban Treaty TEL Transporter–Erector–Launcher TNF Theatre Nuclear Force TNW Tactical Nuclear System UAV Unmanned Air Vehicle UN United Nations UNGA United Nations General Assembly UNSCEAR United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation UNSCOM United Nations Special Commission on Iraq USAF United States Air Force US DoD United States Department of Defense US DoE United States Department of Energy USEC United States Enrichment Corporation WMD Weapons of Mass Destruction LIST OF TaBlES Table 2.1 Cost-exchange ratios 20 Table 2.2 Costs of United States ABM systems 25 Table 8.1 Annual per capita doses from normal exposure to natural sources of radiation (in mrad) 112 Table 8.2 Radiation hazards from the nuclear fuel cycle 121 xv AcKNOWlEDGMENTS Like all books, this volume too is the product of the work of many people and, as editors, we think it is fundamental to express our appreciation for all who have contributed. First and foremost, we would like to thank all the authors and editors of the previous volumes from which chapters included here have been drawn. In this volume, we have kept all the contributions the way they were when first published, adding just a few notes where necessary and re-editing the texts for a homogeneous presentation. Our gratitude also goes to publishers of the original volumes who have graciously granted us permission to re-publish those chapters here. The very idea of celebrating the 50th anniversary of the International School on Disarmament and Research on Conflicts (ISODARCO) with this book maturated in discussions with Carlo Schaerf, ISODARCO’s President, David Carlton, Catherine McArdle Kelleher and Judith Reppy, and we are deeply grateful for their assistance and suggestions. xvii INTRODUcTION Paolo Foradori, Giampiero Giacomello and Alessandro Pascolini Seventy years after the bombing