Environmental Change and Security Project Report Issue 10 2004

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SECURITY PROJECT REPORT ISSUE 10 2004

From Planting Trees to Making Peace: The Next Steps for Environment, Population, and Security

The United Nations and Environmental Security

Population, Development, and Environment in Ethiopia

Reviews of New Publications

Editor Geoffrey D. Dabelko Contributing Editors Nelia Forest Advisory Committee Managing Editor Timothy Hildebrandt Research Staff Co-Chairs Meaghan E. Parker Jennifer Wisnewski Ira Athale Thomas E. Lovejoy, The Heinz Kaczor Bidisha Biswas Center for Science, Production Editors Robert Lalasz Amy Brisson Economics and the Lianne Hepler Ariel Méndez Benjamin Goldstein Environment Derek Lawlor Jennifer L. Turner Shannon Green P.J. Simmons, Rockefeller Richard E. Thomas Charlotte Youngblood Alyssa Edwards Brothers Fund ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SECURITY PROJECT REPORT ISSUE 10 2004

Environmental Change and Security Project The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars One Woodrow Wilson Plaza • 1300 Pennsylvania Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20004-3027 Tel: (202) 691-4130 • Fax: (202) 691-4184 [email protected] www.wilsoncenter.org/ecsp ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SECURITY PROJECT

ince 1994, the Environmental Change and Security Project (ECSP) has explored the relationships among environment, population, disease, economic development, migration, political sta- Sbility, and violent conflict. ECSP brings international policymakers, practitioners, and scholars to Washington, D.C., to address the public and fellow experts on environmental and human security. The project distributes two annual journals, the Environmental Change and Security Project Report and the China Environment Series, along with a biannual newsletter and original research, to over 7,000 people around the world. ECSP News, a monthly e-mail newsletter, links 3,000 subscribers to news, meeting summaries, and event announcements on the project’s comprehensive website, http://www.wilsoncenter.org/ecsp. ECSP is directed by Geoffrey D. Dabelko and is housed in the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Division of International Studies, headed by Robert S. Litwak. ECSP’s core activities are made possible by the generous support of the U.S. Agency for International Development’s Office of Population and Reproductive Health through a cooperative agreement with the University of Michigan’s Population Fellows Programs. ECSP and its China Environment Forum also receive support from the Carnegie Corporation of New York, Japan Foundation’s Center for Global Partnership, Shell (China) Limited, Tamaki Foundation, the United Nations Environment Programme, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, and the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars is the living, national memorial to President Wilson established by Congress in 1968 and headquartered in Washington, D.C. It is a nonpartisan institution, supported by public and private funds, engaged in the study of national and world affairs. The Wilson Center establishes and maintains a neutral forum for free, open, and informed dialogue. The Center commemorates the ideals and concerns of Woodrow Wilson by: providing a link between the world of ideas and the world of policy; and fostering research, study, discussion, and collaboration among a full spectrum of individuals concerned with policy and scholarship in national and world affairs. The Center is directed by the Honorable Lee H. Hamilton, and its Board of Directors is chaired by the Honorable Joseph B. Gildenhorn.

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ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE AND SECURITY PROJECT CONTENTS

Foreword

1 ECSP at 10 Geoffrey D. Dabelko

From Planting Trees to Making Peace: The Next Steps for Environment, Population, and Security

3 Introduction Geoffrey D. Dabelko 8 Environment, Population, and Health: Strategies for a More Secure World Jared Diamond 12 Environmental Security: A View From Europe Margaret Brusasco-Mackenzie 19 From Environmental Peacemaking to Environmental Peacekeeping Erika Weinthal 24 Demographic Security Comes of Age Richard P. Cincotta 30 An Agenda for Population, Health, and Environment Roger-Mark De Souza 36 Networks of Threat and Vulnerability: Lessons From Environmental Security Research Richard Matthew and Bryan McDonald

Special Report

43 Population, Development, and Environment in Ethiopia Sahlu Haile

The United Nations and Environmental Security: Recommendations for the Secretary-General’s High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change

52 Introduction 54 Linkages Between Environment, Population, and Development iv Michael Renner and Hilary French

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004 60 Water, Conflict, and Cooperation Alexander Carius, Geoffrey D. Dabelko, and Aaron T. Wolf 67 The Security Implications of Climate Change for the UN System Nigel Purvis and Joshua Busby

New Publications

74 The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict After the Cold War by Richard P. Cincotta, Robert Engelman, and Daniele Anastasion (Reviewed by Jack A. Goldstone) 77 Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World by Panel on Urban Population Dynamics et al. (Reviewed by Barbara Seligman) 79 Ecological Security: An Evolutionary Perspective on Globalization by Dennis Pirages and Theresa Manley DeGeest (Reviewed by Jon Barnett) 82 One With Nineveh: Politics, Consumption, and the Human Future by Paul Ehrlich and Anne Ehrlich (Reviewed by Dennis Pirages) 85 Red Sky at Morning: America and the Crisis of the Global Environment by James Gustave Speth (Reviewed by Frederick A.B. Meyerson) 88 Environment, Development and Human Security: Perspectives From South Asia by Adil Najam (Ed.) (Reviewed by Navroz K. Dubash) 90 Security and Environment in the Mediterranean by Brauch et al. (Eds.) (Reviewed by Evan Vlachos) 93 The Global Threat of New and Reemerging Infectious Diseases: Reconciling U.S. National Security and Public Health Policy by Jennifer Brower and Peter Chalk (Reviewed by Andrew Price-Smith) 95 Sparing Nature: The Conflict Between Human Population Growth and Earth’s Biodiversity by Jeffrey McKee (Reviewed by Eckhard Kleinau) 97 Human Security Now: Protecting and Empowering People by the Commission on Human Security (Reviewed by William H. Mansfield) 99 Water Security and Peace: A Synthesis of Studies Prepared Under the PCCP-Water for Peace Process by William J. Cosgrove (Reviewed by Annika Kramer) dotPOP

104 Jennifer Wisnewski Kaczor

CONTENTS FOREWORD

nvironmental security is the disar- tions to the field by outlining their visions for mament policy of the future.” the next 10 years. “E Klaus Toepfer, the executive direc- Like the Woodrow Wilson Center’s name- tor of the UN Environment Programme, chose sake, ECSP bridges the chasm between academic theorizing and practical policymaking. Beltway the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Environmental GEOFFREY D. insiders turn out to quiz big thinkers, and profes- Change and Security Project (ECSP) to deliver DABELKO this message. Why? Because he believes it is the sors and practitioners meet political players on “leading institute for environmental security in neutral ground. ECSP was among the first to Editor the United States.” Since its founding in 1994, systematically shine a light on nascent U.S. poli- ECSP has explored the relationships among cy efforts in environmental security by publish- environment, population, disease, economic ing reports from former Vice President Albert development, migration, political stability, and Gore’s State Failure Task Force and the CIA’s violent conflict. Over the last 10 years, more National Intelligence Council. Continuing this than 250 ECSP meetings have drawn academ- long tradition, ECSP Report 10 includes three ics, policymakers, and practitioners to the papers—on water, climate change, and natural Woodrow Wilson Center to welcome luminar- resources—commissioned by the United ies such as Gro Harlem Brundtland, Warren Nations Foundation for the Secretary-General’s Christopher, Jane Goodall, Mikhail Gorbachev, High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Jeffrey Sachs, and General Anthony Zinni. The Change, which Kofi Annan charged with recom- ECSP Report’s nine issues, distributed to 7,000 mending effective collective responses to the people around the world annually, have shat- world’s security problems. tered the disciplinary boundaries separating As described by the Secretary-General, the environment, population, and security. This universe of threats to peace includes a multi- 10th anniversary issue celebrates ECSP’s legacy tude of interdependent variables. Large youth and looks forward to the new challenges facing populations, water pollution, HIV/AIDS, cli- this exciting field. mate change: all of these factors, and more, The ECSP Report, the only forum dedicated could reduce human security and potentially to showcasing environmental security, has transformed concepts of conflict and peace. In its pages, leading scholars have debated theoretical underpinnings, honed methodological approaches, and evaluated empirical evidence. In this issue’s special commentary section, “From Planting Trees to Making Peace: The This 10th anniversary issue celebrates ECSP’s Next Steps for Environment, Population, and legacy and looks forward to new challenges. Security,” Jared Diamond, Margaret Brusasco- Mackenzie, Erika Weinthal, Richard Cincotta, Roger-Mark De Souza, and Richard Matthew and Bryan McDonald honor ECSP’s contribu- 1

FOREWORD

Past ECSP Reports (Credit: ©David Hawxhurst, Woodrow Wilson Center)

destabilize nations. But it is essential to look at abroad. Our monthly e-newsletter, ECSP News, the links between population growth and envi- delivers meeting summaries, project news, and ronmental change to understand the roots of— event announcements straight to the inboxes of and the solutions to—these “soft” threats. In a 3,000 subscribers, allowing us to reduce the size special report, Sahlu Haile of the Packard of our publications. Our ever-expanding web- Foundation describes how decades of popula- site’s new topical organization will make find- tion growth in Ethiopia have contributed to ing news, research, and links as easy as a click of overfarming and deforestation, which have the mouse. As part of this expansion, ECSP degraded the environment and undermined Report 10 introduces a new column— development. ECSP Report 10’s book reviews “dotPop”—that illustrates the wealth of popula- also reflect the project’s interdisciplinary focus, tion data available online. covering a broad spectrum of new publications A decade after ECSP began, the Nobel that address the connections among popula- Committee recognized environmental connection, health, environment, and security. tions to security by awarding Wangari Maathai The year 2004 brought a number of changes the Nobel Peace Prize for her work linking sus- to ECSP. More meetings—a 25-percent tainable development and human rights. ECSP increase from the year before—and more off- pledges to honor work like hers by continuing site conferences reflect the growing interest in to map the path to a sustainable peace for the this crucial nexus in the United States and next 10 years—and beyond.

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004

COMMENTARY

The Next Steps for Environment, Population, and Security

n 1994, interest in environment and secu- Geoffrey D. Dabelko is director of the rity issues exploded. Civil unrest in Environmental Change and Security ILiberia, Rwanda, Somalia, and Haiti Project at the Woodrow Wilson offered graphic illustrations of “state failure.” International Center for Scholars. Senior politicians, like U.S. Vice President Albert Gore, began to ask how these conflagra- tions might be related to natural resources. In Homer-Dixon or the nascent field). GEOFFREY D. academia, Canadian political scientist Thomas Environmental security was not all-encom- DABELKO Homer-Dixon (1994) published the results of passing enough to provide a new template for his investigations into environmental scarcity international affairs, as some hoped. That and acute conflict in the widely respected jour- same year, the United Nations threw its hat nal International Security. His Swiss counter- into the ring with “human security,” which part Günther Baechler undertook the first focused attention on the individual person, round of the Environmental Conflicts Project who is usually neglected under state-centered (ENCOP) case studies. Critics in the global definitions of security (United Nations North and South took aim at these claims, Development Programme, 1994). But these spurring a lively debate (Conca, 1994; Dalby, concepts only supplemented, not replaced, 1994; Käkönen, 1994; Levy, 1995a, 1995b). traditional frameworks of development and Robert Kaplan’s influential 1994 piece in security. The Atlantic Monthly, “The Coming Anarchy,” Founded by P.J. Simmons in 1994, the brought this research to a wider audience. Woodrow Wilson Center’s Environmental Kaplan’s breathless claim, based on his travels in Change and Security Project (ECSP) waded West Africa, that environment would become through post-Cold War struggles to redefine the national security issue of the 21st century security in order to understand the environ- grabbed newspaper headlines and shot to the ment’s role in conflict. ECSP offered top of policymakers’ agendas. Citing Kaplan’s Washington policymakers a neutral, nonparti- piece and political instability in West and East san forum where odd bedfellows—army gener- Africa, Gore created the State Failure Task Force als and conservation biologists, demographers to investigate these collapses, mandating that and CIA analysts—could learn from one anoth- the analyses fully integrate environmental and er. Heads of state and directors of UN agencies, demographic variables.1 untenured post-docs and field workers: ECSP Kaplan’s hyperbolic comparison of Homer- brought together everyone trying to trace the Dixon’s ideas to George Kennan’s influential complex links among environment, population, “X article”2 on Soviet containment raised the and security, and devise effective policies and ire of many old hands (and did few favors for programs for the field. 3

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY The Next Steps for Environment, PHE, programs will not receive the support of Population, and Security policymakers and donors in both the developing and developed worlds. Finally, Richard After 10 years of multisectoral, multidiscipli- Matthew and Bryan McDonald of the Center nary cross-pollination, where are we now? What for Unconventional Security Affairs at the are the key questions and themes for the next University of California, Irvine, apply lessons decade? For this 10th issue of the ECSP Report, from environmental security research to devel- we asked six scholars, practitioners, and policy- op their concept of a broader network of threats makers to offer their recommendations for the and vulnerabilities that they believe constitutes future of environmental security. a new 21st century security agenda. Eminent scientist and Pulitzer Prize-winning author Jared Diamond connects environmental Environment, Development, and degradation to societal failure, and offers steps Sustainable Peace that any of us—scholar, policymaker, or consumer—can take to promote sustainable devel- To these worthy ideas, I would add a few prior- opment and reduce the threat of political col- ities. As scholars, we must identify the pieces lapse. Former European Commission environ- missing from the environment, conflict, and ECSP offered ment official Margaret Brusasco-Mackenzie cooperation puzzle and examine the gaps that Washington policy- laments the loss of momentum that pushed inhibit political responses. We must move environmental security and sustainable devel- beyond the false dichotomy between scarcity makers a neutral, opment forward in the heady rush of the early and abundance. We must push forward with nonpartisan forum nineties. She highlights some of the European the growing effort to invert the conflict thesis Union’s efforts to reinvigorate these policies in a and look at environmental pathways to confi- where odd bedfel- world dominated by “hard” security headlines. dence building and peacemaking. In lows—army gener- Erika Weinthal of Tel Aviv University tackles Environmental Peacemaking, Ken Conca and I the evolving concept of environmental peace- (2002) presented case studies, including one by als and conserva- making, utilizing examples from the Middle commentary contributor Erika Weinthal, to tion biologists, East and Central Asia to promote the potential spur the conversation and spark interest in of environmental paths for reaching peace— these mechanisms; however, the research com- demographers and and keeping it. Richard Cincotta builds on munity has yet to trace the pathways, examine CIA analysts—could Population Action International’s influential a significant set of cases, and evaluate relative report The Security Demographic to outline con- success. In many ways, academia is just catch- learn from one crete steps for research and policy to untangle ing up to the policy world, where organizations another. the significant correlations between demogra- as diverse as local NGOs, the World Bank, and phy and security. Both a scholar and an advo- the U.S. military have engaged in environmen- cate, Cincotta presents a compelling case for tal peacemaking.3 why the foreign and security policy community But policymakers must act fast to avoid must seriously consider demographic dynamics missing opportunities to build peace. Instead of such as demographic transition theory, youth merely reacting to the symptoms of environ- bulges, and migration. ment-conflict linkages, they should proactively Roger-Mark De Souza of the Population extinguish hotspots by bolstering confidence Reference Bureau points out that while popula- and building cooperation. As Alexander Carius tion-health-environment (PHE) programs have and I outlined in Understanding Environment, enjoyed some success in the field, they are Conflict, and Cooperation, published by the endangering that success by not effectively United Nations Environment Programme communicating the advantages of these (UNEP) in 2004, institutions need to bridge approaches. Without systematically document- disciplinary borders between academia and pol- 4 ing and advertising the benefits of integrating icy, reduce compartmentalization among their

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004 departments, balance participation by elite- level and broad-based stakeholders, and improve the ways in which policies are commu- nicated, perceived, and justified. Population is often on the other side of the disciplinary boundary, even though it is an inte- gral variable. ECSP has sought to draw popula- But policymakers must act fast to avoid missing tion out of its political and theoretical isolation opportunities to build peace. Instead of merely and into the mainstream of environmental security research and policy. Population and envi- reacting to the symptoms of environment-con- ronment organizations, offices, and researchers do not spend enough time engaging each anoth- flict linkages, they should proactively extinguish er, partly due to fears that population is a politi- hotspots by bolstering confidence and building cal scarlet letter and environment is a marginal issue. Some may find focusing on population cooperation. growth in the developing world exploitative, xenophobic, or hypocritical, given the impact of Northern consumption on resources. Yet, pre- tending demography is disconnected from envi- Planting Trees, Making Peace ronment and security misrepresents reality and excises an effective avenue for understanding When I learned that environmental activist environment, conflict, and cooperation. Wangari Maathai of Kenya had been awarded Just as we cannot ignore demography, it is the Nobel Peace Prize in recognition of her equally shortsighted not to investigate how decades-long fight to protect Kenya’s forests livelihoods, poverty, and resource use are related from corruption and degradation, I was over- to conflict. As UNEP Executive Director Klaus joyed—it was the best 10th anniversary present Toepfer told ECSP (2004), “Sustainable devel- ECSP could receive. Maathai’s Green Belt opment is a security imperative. Improving Movement planted 30 million trees across the degraded environments and achieving sustain- country, and in the process, employed thou- able development enhances human security, sands of women and offered them empower- prevents conflict, and builds peace.” ment, education, and even family planning.4 Environmental security has come late to these Maathai firmly believes that environmental issues, but our Southern colleagues’ ever-louder protection is inextricably linked to improving calls for placing the issues within a development human living conditions. As she told Norway’s context will help address this shortcoming. TV2, “If we improve the management of our Just as the field of environmental security natural resources, we help promote peace.” must better take account of the development Awarding the peace prize to an environmen- imperative that drives policy in the global tal activist certainly raised eyebrows. Some South, so too must it tackle consumption and accused the Nobel Committee of straying too the role of the global economy. Local conflicts far from the traditional concept of peace. in the developing world are often related to According to these naysayers, the committee global patterns of resource use, and therefore we should not expand its view of war and peace to must factor them into our equations more include local livelihood conflicts that emerge explicitly. Examining how Northern consump- from natural resource exploitation, corruption, tion exacerbates climate change, for example, constrained public participation, maldevelop- could add nuance to a discussion dominated by ment, and inequity. doomsday scenarios that drown out practical But the struggle over natural resources fuels ideas for action. conflicts across the world. “Maathai stands at 5

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY

Wangari Maathai, 2004 Nobel Peace Prize Winner (credit: Goldman Environmental Prize)

the front of the fight to promote ecologically http://www.cnn.com/SPECIALS/cold.war/episodes/ viable social, economic, and cultural develop- 04/documents/x.html. ment in Kenya and in Africa,” said the 3. See Friends of the Earth Middle East’s “Good Water Makes Good Neighbors Project” at Norwegian Nobel Committee (2004). “She rep- http://www.foeme.org/water.htm; the work by the resents an example and a source of inspiration World Bank and UNDP to facilitate the Nile Basin for everyone in Africa fighting for sustainable Initiative, at http://www.nilebasin.org/; and the Arctic development, democracy, and peace.” The aca- Military Environment Cooperation Programme, demic world should stop arguing over two sides through which the United States, Norway, and Russia of the same coin, and instead explore how liveli- cooperatively address radioactive contamination in northwestern Russia, at hood security could encourage cooperation and https://www.denix.osd.mil/denix/Public/Intl/AMEC/ prevent conflict. Policymakers and practitioners declar.html. must rise above interagency squabbles and inef- 4. See Dabelko (2004) for more information on fective Band-Aid approaches, and instead pur- Maathai’s Nobel Peace Prize. sue integrated and sustained efforts to redress the roots of conflict and promote environmental References pathways to peace. As the Nobel Committee Carius, Alexander & Geoffrey D. Dabelko. (2004). proclaimed, “Peace on earth depends on our “Institutionalizing responses to environment, con- ability to secure our living environment.” flict, and cooperation.” In Understanding environment, conflict, and cooperation (pages 21-33). Notes Nairobi: United Nations Environment Programme. Conca, Ken. (1994). “In the name of sustainability: 1. The State Failure Task Force is now known as the Peace studies and environmental discourse.” Peace Political Instability Task Force. Its Phase III results are and Change 19, 91-113. available on the website of the University of Maryland’s Conca, Ken & Geoffrey D. Dabelko (Eds.). (2002). Center for International Development and Conflict Environmental peacemaking. Washington and Management at http://www.cidcm.umd.edu/inscr/stfail/. Baltimore: The Woodrow Wilson Center Press and 2. The “X article,” originally a telegram sent by the Johns Hopkins University Press. George Kennan to the U.S. Department of State in Dabelko, Geoffrey D. (2004, October 8). “Nobel of 1946, was published in Foreign Affairs in 1947 as “The the ball.” Grist Magazine. Retrieved November 8, 6 Sources of Soviet Conduct”; see 2004, from http://www.grist.org/news/maindish/

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004

2004/10/08/dabelko-maathai/ Publishing Company. Dalby, Simon. (1994). “The politics of environmental Kaplan, Robert. (1994, February). “The coming anar- security.” In Jyrki Käkönen (Ed.), Green security or chy.” The Atlantic Monthly, 45-76. militarized environment (pages 25-54). Brookfield: Levy, Marc A. (1995a, Fall). “Is the environment a Dartmouth Publishing Co. national security issue?” International Security Environmental Change and Security Project (ECSP). 20(2), 35-62. (2004, September 30). UNEP’s Klaus Toepfer Levy, Marc A. (1995b, Spring). “Time for a third wave launches “Understanding environment, conflict, and of environment and security scholarship?” cooperation” [Press release]. Retrieved November 8, Environmental Change and Security Project Report 1, 2004, from http://www.wilsoncenter.org/ 44-46. index.cfm?topic_id=1413&fuseaction=topics.item Norwegian Nobel Committee (2004, October 8). The &news_id=95228 Nobel Peace Prize for 2004. Retrieved November 8, Homer-Dixon, Thomas F. (1994, Summer). 2004, from “Environmental scarcities and violent conflict: http://www.nobel.no/eng_lau_announce2004.html Evidence from cases.” International Security 19, 5-40. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Käkönen, Jyrki (Ed.). (1994). Green security or milita- (1994). Human Development Report 1994. New rized environment? Brookfield: Darmouth York: Oxford University Press and UNDP.

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY COMMENTARY • The Next Steps for Environment, Population, and Security

Environment, Population, and Health: Strategies for a More Secure World

lobalization—the increasing intercon- Easter Island collapsed in an epidemic of canni- nectedness of the modern world—has balism. The population crashed, war broke out Gmany consequences: cultural homoge- between the clans, and people began throwing nization, such as the expansion of the English down other clans’ statues. By 1840, all of the language; the spread of certain consumer prod- statues that the islanders had erected at great ucts, like Coca-Cola, cars, and popular music; effort had been thrown down, the government and economic interconnectedness, including had been overthrown, their religion had col- the much-discussed overseas transfer of jobs. lapsed, and 90 percent of the people were dead. These consequences arouse strong feelings and By the 1870s, the island, which had originally emotional reactions, and sometimes, violent supported 15,000 people, had only 111 inhabi- protests. The fundamental causes of globaliza- tants. Because Easter Island is isolated, it is the tion—more efficient communications and purest case in history of an ecological collapse transport—are not going to change, but we can uninfluenced by neighboring societies. There try to anticipate and control its consequences. were no friends to offer help or enemies to These facets of globalization seem new and march in. All 11 clans—all sharing resources in unprecedented, and at first, we might think we a mini-globalized world—fell together. have nothing to learn from history. In fact, his- Easter Island is a metaphor for the modern tory is full of examples of slower and spatially world. When the Easter Islanders got into limited globalizations. A past society that trouble, there was no place to which they appears to be the polar opposite of our global- could flee and no one whom they could sum- ized world, isolated Easter Island in the Pacific mon to help because Easter Island was isolated Ocean, encountered nearly fatal problems of in the middle of the Pacific Ocean. Similarly, population, environment, and health. if our modern society gets into trouble, there is Easter Island’s 11 clans depended on each no other planet from which we can seek help, other for food and other supplies, and to erect and there is no other planet to which we are JARED the island’s famous statues. But after rampant going to be able to flee. We are like Easter Island in the Pacific Ocean. DIAMOND population growth led to total deforestation, Our world is interconnected and interdependent, like Easter Island’s 11 clans. Today, we face the same problems—loss of forests, Jared Diamond is a professor of geogra- fisheries, biodiversity, fresh water, and top- phy and physiology at the University of soil—that dragged down past societies. But California, Los Angeles, and the Pulitzer for the first time in world history, we are pro- Prize-winning author of the widely ducing or transporting toxic materials, green- acclaimed Guns, Germs, and Steel: The house gases, and alien species. All these envi- Fates of Human Societies. His next book, ronmental problems are time bombs. The world is now on an unsustainable course, and Collapse: How Societies Choose to Fail these problems will be resolved one way or or Succeed, will be published by another, pleasantly or unpleasantly, within the 8 Penguin in January 2005. next 50 years.

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004 Countries that are overwhelmed by environ- manage our shared resources and governmental mental problems tend to develop political and actions to prevent degradation. economic problems. Ask a politically naïve ecol- Second, economics is on our side. A public ogist to name the countries with the worst envi- heath campaign to throttle the spread of tuber- ronmental and overpopulation problems. The culosis and malaria would cost about $25 bil- environmentalist would say they include lion. That seems like a lot of money until you Afghanistan, Burundi, Haiti, Indonesia, Iraq, consider that the interventions in Afghanistan Madagascar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, and Iraq cost $80 billion to $100 billion (and Rwanda, and the Solomon Islands. And then that does not include the tens or hundreds of ask a First World politician who does not care billions for nation building and the subsequent about the environment to name the world’s military actions). It would be relatively cheap to trouble spots, and the politician would say they solve the world’s public health problems, which include Afghanistan, Burundi, Haiti, Indonesia, if left untreated, may ultimately lead to the Iraq, Madagascar, Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, explosions that cause us to send in our troops. Rwanda, and the Solomon Islands. The two lists For $25 billion, we could start solving the are identical because of cause and effect: people world’s ultimate problems; instead, we have in countries with severe population, environ- chosen to solve just the proximate problems in a ment, and health problems get desperate. If they few places. The Band-Aids cost much more have no hope, they turn to drastic things like than the antibiotic. Today, no society civil war and terrorism and make trouble not Third, an especially effective strategy for can collapse with- only for themselves but also for other countries. dealing with population problems is to empow- In short, globalization is more than the First er women to plan the size of their families. I out affecting other World sending the Third World good things, often hear the argument that we Americans societies. And so like Coca-Cola and the Internet. Globalization have no business telling others how many can go in two directions: “They” can send “us” babies they should have and therefore we now, out of self- bad things, such as terrorism, illegal immi- should not “force” family planning on anyone. interest, we are grants, and diseases like SARS, malaria, and But this is ignorant: people in the Third World Ebola. It also means us sending them bad know much better than any American the con- involved with every things in return. When Easter Island collapsed sequences of large families—they do not have other society in the around 1680, its collapse did not affect any- enough money to feed their children, buy them body else in the world and nobody knew about clothes and books, or send them to school. world. it. Today, no society can collapse without They want the means to control their family affecting other societies. And so now, out of size. Our government does not even have to self-interest, we are involved with every other actively provide the means; all it has to do is society in the world. step back and stop interfering with private organizations that want to provide it. What Can We Do? Finally, individuals and groups of individuals can address these major problems relatively Our current economic and political problems cheaply if we choose to do so: can be depressing. But I see hope for several rea- We can vote. In a democracy, the govern- sons: first, all the problems that I have ticked ment’s top-down actions result from the voters’ off are problems that we caused. Every one of bottom-up expressions of will. And some elec- our problems—deforestation, overfishing, tions (as we have recently seen in the United water scarcity, and toxic waste—is of our own States) are settled by small numbers of voters. making. Therefore, we can choose to stop caus- We can join groups that pool their ing them. Our success depends on a mix of resources effectively. We can give modest sums small-scale, bottom-up solutions and large- of money to highly leveraged organizations. For scale, top-down solutions: individual steps to example, World Wildlife Fund (WWF) has an 9

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY ing in Chevron Texaco’s oil fields in Papua New Guinea, in collaboration with WWF, because Chevron Texaco decided, after the 1969 Santa Barbara oil spill, that it would be cheaper to avoid oil spills than to clean them People in countries with severe population, up. Another example: in 1993, a number of major logging companies got together with environment, and health problems get des- WWF to set standards for sustainable forestry perate. If they have no hope, they turn to and establish the Forest Stewardship Council to label consumer products. Similarly, six years drastic things like civil war and terrorism and ago, Unilever—the world’s largest wholesaler of seafood products—became concerned that make trouble not only for themselves but also they were going to run out of seafood. Unilever for other countries. collaborated with WWF to establish the Marine Stewardship Council, which sets standards for sustainable fishing. annual budget of $80 million to $120 million, We can exercise consumer choice. We can which seems like a lot of money until you con- punish companies that damage the environ- sider that it is supposed to address all of the ment and patronize those that adhere to envi- world’s environmental problems. However, ronmental standards like sustainability pledges. WWF is highly leveraged; if you give $150, gov- For example, consumers can choose seafood ernments will chip in $1000. Therefore, your from well-managed fisheries, such as Alaska’s modest contribution to highly effective, highly wild salmon. Or, consumers can vent their leveraged organizations can make a big impact. wrath over the Valdez spill by not buying Exxon We can speak out on public policy matters. gas. Knowing where to express your views is The great majority of academics are not only much trickier in the mining industry, because uninterested in speaking to the public, but also there is a series of steps between the mines and have reservations about it. They feel that if they the consumer. Gold mining, for example, can speak to the public, it shows they are self-inter- be frightfully destructive, spilling cyanide into ested and no longer unbiased. It is also impor- streams. Like most consumers, I do not have tant to find people who are charismatic and the faintest idea where the gold for my wedding well-known, such as Hollywood celebrities, and ring was mined. But we can identify the part of engage them. They are known by billions of the business chain that is susceptible to pressure people around the world and they could be and knows where the gold is mined. About two effective messengers. years ago, Tiffany’s Jewelers—one of the 10 We can encourage and support collabora- major gold retailers in the United States—real- tions between big businesses and environ- ized that its stores were going to be picketed, so mental organizations. Some of the most pow- it switched its business to a clean mining com- erful forces in the world today are big businesses, pany, BHP in Australia. In industries like min- and unfortunately, some use that power in envi- ing and logging, we can trace the supply chain ronmentally destructive ways. However, quite a to figure out where consumers can most prof- few realize that it is much cheaper to solve envi- itably use their limited clout. ronmental problems at the outset rather than wait for a billion-dollar disaster like the Exxon Conclusion Valdez spill, the Bhopal chemical plant, the Buffalo Creek coal mine in West Virginia, and We are the first society in human history that the Panguna copper mine in Papua New can learn from distant countries and the remote 10 Guinea. For the last six years, I have been work- past. When we turn on our television sets, we

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004 can see the consequences of ecological messes in Afghanistan and Baghdad and Somalia. We know what happened to Easter Island in 1680, the Anasazi in the southwestern United States in 1118, and the classic lower Mayan civilization in 810. We know about environmental disasters in the past and around the world, and we can choose to learn from these mistakes. The Easter Islanders, when their society was collapsing, did not know that Anasazi society had collapsed for the same reason 550 years before. We have the opportunity to learn; the Easter Islanders did not. We are in the middle of an exponentially accelerating horse race. On one hand, the destructive forces in the world are increasing exponentially. On the other, the environmental movement is increasing exponentially. This horse Jared Diamond (Credit: ©David Hawxhurst, race will be settled within the next 50 years, and Woodrow Wilson Center) it is up to you to influence which horse will win.

Editor’s Note: This commentary is an edited transcript of an address Dr. Diamond gave at the Woodrow Wilson Center on January 30, 2004.

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY COMMENTARY • The Next Steps for Environment, Population, and Security

Environmental Security: A View From Europe

ince the 1992 Conference on Homeland Security, n.d.) and more than ten Environment and Development in Rio times that for the military (Center for Defense Sde Janeiro—and the founding of the Information, n.d.). Billions more have been Environmental Change and Security Project spent by the rest of the “coalition of the willing” in 1994—much has changed, but unfortu- on the Iraq war. Contrast that with the $11.3 nately, not much for the better. At Rio, the billion the United States spends on foreign aid world community signed up for a new eco- each year (USAID, 2003) and the $54 billion nomic model based on justice for all—includ- to $62 billion needed annually to cut poverty in ing the world’s poor—that would ensure sus- half by 2015 (Devarajan, Miller, & Swanson, tainable development of both industrialized 2002). Clearly, the new model of develop- and less-industrialized nations. As Cold War ment—one that could ensure environmental tensions faded, a new field emerged that security—has been put on the back burner by stretched the traditional definition of insecu- the hostilities in Iraq and the war on terrorism. rity to encompass “soft” or “human” security Certain civil liberties in coalition countries have issues like environmental degradation and also been shoved aside by these wars, via the scarcity of vital natural resources. While this United States’ Patriot Act and the United redefinition gained credence in the 1990s Kingdom’s Anti-terrorism, Crime, and Security within the foreign policy, development, and Act 2001. How can we go to war in the name of even defense communities, it is not widely democracy and simultaneously encroach on our recognized or precisely delineated. And since own (and foreigners’) democratic rights? September 11, the overwhelming focus on Despite these “wars,” we have not achieved even homeland defense and the war on terrorism limited security in the Middle East. has almost completely eclipsed broader defini- How do we get back on track? We must rein- MARGARET tions of security. vigorate the comprehensive—and reject the BRUSASCO- In 2004, the United States allotted $36 bil- exclusively militaristic—definition of security. MACKENZIE lion for homeland security (Department of Ten years after Rio, the 2002 World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg aug- mented several positive efforts towards sustain- Margaret Brusasco-Mackenzie, LLM, is able development. The developed countries agreed to give more aid to developing countries, currently a member of the Green Globe especially the least developed countries in Africa Network, a group of U.K. experts on sus- (via the Monterrey Commitments).1 The mem- tainable development. Most of her pro- bers of the Organisation for Economic Co- fessional life was spent in the European operation and Development (OECD) agreed to Commission, notably as head of help poor countries meet the UN’s Millennium International Affairs, Environment Development Goals (MDGs; OECD, 2001). The Doha trade round is inching towards more Directorate General. She has taught in equity in the global trading system.2 All of these universities in the United Kingdom, steps will provide more aid and assistance to 12 Lesotho, and Belgium. those countries suffering from extreme poverty

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and deprivation. But what about the environ- violent conflict.3 So can migration, as in Chad, ment? If we take stock of the last dozen years, where incoming refugees competed with locals has the health of the planet improved, and what for scarce land resources (United Nations High steps can we take to ensure that this develop- Commissioner for Refugees, 2004). ment assistance is sustainable for the economy Deforestation exacerbates the competition for and the Earth? livelihoods; forest cover has declined by 2.4 percent since 1990, despite our pledges at Rio to The Diagnosis reverse this trend (WRI, 2000). Water stress is even more life-threatening than The world’s population more than doubled degraded land resources. By the mid-1990s, 80 from 1950 to 1998, and in the last 10 years it countries, representing 40 percent of the world’s has increased by about 14 percent to reach a population, suffered serious water shortages staggering 6.4 billion (United Nations (United Nations Environment Programme Population Division, 2003). Optimistic projec- [UNEP], 2002). By 2025, two-thirds of the tions peak in 2050 at 9 billion, an increase of entire world could experience moderate to severe 50 percent despite notable strides in family water stress (United Nations Department of planning and the uncertain effects of Economic and Social Affairs, 2002). Eighteen HIV/AIDS (Population Reference Bureau, percent, or 1.1 billion people, currently lack 2004). This unprecedented population growth access to safe drinking water, and 2.4 billion do has directly pressured land resources by increas- not have adequate sanitation, mostly in Africa ing and intensifying agricultural use of margin- and Asia. Unsafe drinking water and inadequate al land, subjecting it to damaging overuse, such sanitation transmit deadly waterborne diseases as excessive irrigation. Although 20th century like malaria (1.2 million deaths/year) and diar- inventions revolutionized agricultural produc- rhea (1.8 million deaths/year); 90 percent of the tivity, 831 million people across the world victims are children under five (World Health remain hungry and malnourished (United Organization, 2004). Nations Development Programme, 2004). The news is not all bad, however: in the past During the first half of the 21st century, many decade, people with access to improved water areas of the globe are expected to suffer heavy supplies increased from 4.1 billion (79 percent) losses of cropland due to degradation, soil ero- in 1990 to 4.9 billion (82 percent) in 2000, sion, and climate change. About two billion largely due to better national water policies, hectares of soil—equal to 15 percent of the river basin cooperation, and more coordinated Earth’s land cover—is already degraded (World donor policies (UNEP, 2002). River basin Resources Institute [WRI], 2000). Between cooperation may have also prevented conflict; 1984 and 1998, the world’s grain harvest fell scarce water resources can be a source of ten- behind population growth, with output drop- sion, but, as demonstrated by the Nile Basin ping by 9 percent, or 0.7 percent yearly Initiative, agreements to manage basins can (Brown, Gardner, & Halweil, 1999). The prog- improve relations.4 nosis is disheartening; there are so many more Unfortunately, the oceans are not improv- mouths to feed, but less to feed them. ing. Pressure on the coastal zones constantly The Food and Agriculture Organization increases: more than 40 percent of the world’s (2003) predicts that developing countries will be population now lives within 100 kilometers of forced to steadily increase their food imports. the coast (WRI, 2000). Twenty-eight percent of Unable to meet rising demands for food, coun- the world’s most important fisheries are deplet- tries will suffer greater poverty, declining health, ed or overexploited, putting at risk the one bil- higher infant mortality, and increased migra- lion people who rely on fish as their primary tion. As agriculturalists encroach on pastoralists protein source. Overfishing by locals and by in Africa, land use disputes can contribute to worldwide fleets “vacuuming the seas” can lead 13

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY to conflicts; the UN recorded more than 100 structive political processes designed to assist disputes over fish in 1997 (Brown, Gardner, & developing countries achieve a better quality of Halweil, 1999). life, like the Monterrey Commitments, MDGs, In addition, global climate change could Johannesburg, and the Doha round. So what exacerbate the negative effects of all of these positive action is being taken? problems, increasing desertification, land degradation, coral reef dieback, and flooding United Nations and other extreme weather events (UNEP, 2002). And despite the naysayers, climate In 2001, Kofi Annan defined four burning change becomes more and more likely; in 2004, issues that must be confronted in order to scientists at Hawaii’s Mauna Loa Observatory achieve a world in which terrorism cannot announced that carbon dioxide had reached flourish: poverty, HIV/AIDS, conflict preven- Clearly, the new record-high levels after growing at an accelerat- tion, and sustainability (United Nations, 2001). model of developed pace during the previous year (Associated To further this work, he charged a High-Level Press, 2004). Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change with ment—one that In all, despite some scattered improvements, examining not only the traditional “high” for- could ensure envi- the environment has grown more fragile almost eign policy concerns (war and peace and the everywhere, as the world’s population continues UN’s role), but also addressing these “soft” ronmental securi- to increase and the AIDS pandemic devastates security issues.5 Although the highest levels of ty—has been put the most economically active age group in the UN have validated environmental security many African countries. and are prepared to address it, these admirable on the back burner The stage is set for increased poverty and efforts are hampered by the persistence of insti- by the hostilities in misery. If we continue with business as usual, tutional barriers to cross-agency cooperation conflicts over resources can only become more and anemic exercise of political will by member Iraq and the war severe. Even before we factor in the ethnic and governments, not to mention the usual chronic on terrorism. social conflicts, youth unemployment, and lack of funds.6 social disintegration that make parts of Asia, South America, and the Middle East rich breed- European Union ing grounds for terrorism, we can diagnose the patient with a dangerous case of environmental The European Union continues to take some insecurity. The ethnic cleansing in Darfur is a progressive steps towards curing the human- perfect example. Militias have killed thousands induced stresses plaguing our planet. What is it of people, chasing 1.65 million from their doing to protect us from the long-term threats homes to risk death from starvation and dirty posed by environmental degradation and water (United Nations, 2004). Why? Can it be unsustainable development, and where should partly because the region may have oil deposits it focus during the next 10 years? that the central government wishes to exploit? “With the introduction of the euro, the biggest enlargement in the history of European The Cure integration, and the adoption of a Constitution for Europe, we have united a continent once The promise of the mid-1990s, when many gov- riven by conflicts, both military and ideological,” ernments, NGOs, and some enlightened busi- announced President Romano Prodi (European nesses supported the goals of environmental Commission, 2004a). “What we have achieved is security and sustainable development, has faded a Union that promises opportunities and security in the face of more proximate, pressing security for its people and a strong voice worldwide. Our concerns after September 11. The war on terror- proposals are concrete, cost-effective, and timely: ism has preempted the international agenda and now the EU has to live up to its promises.” That, 14 diverted attention and funds away from con- of course, is the difficult bit.

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004 The EU is heading in the right direction, at responsibility for global security and in build- least according to its stated principles. The ing a better world” (2003, page 1). European Community was formed to prevent But Europe must get its own house in order conflict, build a joint economy, and improve its first. The EU Strategy for Sustainable citizens’ quality of life. The European Development, adopted in 2001 and currently Constitution, signed in October 2004, encour- being updated, requires integrating environment ages peace, security, and a sustainable economy, into its policies (e.g., trade, aid, fisheries, and agri- not only for Europe but also the world: “The culture): “[I]n the long term, economic growth, Union shall work for sustainable development social cohesion, and environmental protection of Europe based on balanced economic growth must go hand in hand” (Commission of the and price stability, a highly competitive social European Communities, 2001, page 2). In the market economy, aiming at full employment recent Doha round negotiations, the EU made and social progress, and with a high level of pro- concessions that should make the market for tection and improvement of the quality of the developing countries’ agricultural exports freer environment… It shall contribute to peace, and fairer (European Commission, 2004b). The security, [and] the sustainable development of EU must do more to eliminate damaging subsi- the Earth” (Title I, article I-3). dies, particularly in agriculture, in order to ensure In addition, the EU’s recently adopted secu- environmental security at home and abroad. And rity strategy, titled A secure Europe in a better more is being done: the fisheries policy, for exam- world (2003), recognizes that security is essen- ple, is undergoing a thorough overhaul to make it tial for development and acknowledges the roles less destructive not only within EU waters, but played by environmental factors in cycles of also worldwide (Commission of the European conflict: Communities, 2001). The EU is the world’s largest donor of offi- Security is a precondition of development. cial development assistance, contributing Conflict not only destroys infrastructure, more than half of OECD’s total aid—$29.9 including social infrastructure; it also billion out of $58.3 billion in 2002 (OECD, encourages criminality, deters investment 2003). It has made considerable efforts to and makes normal economic activity upgrade its development policy, although sev- impossible. A number of countries and eral Member States are struggling to increase regions are caught in a cycle of conflict, their contribution. The EU also brought for- insecurity and poverty. Competition for ward at Johannesburg two initiatives on water natural resources—notably water—which and energy supply that seek to ensure greater will be aggravated by global warming over security for the developing world, and I hope the next decades, is likely to create further the new commission will take them forward turbulence and migratory movements in energetically. The EU’s Water for Life initia- various regions. (pages 2-3). tive has made progress, drawing up plans for four regions and establishing a special water Besides acknowledging the problems of envi- facility with an initial grant of 500 million ronmental insecurity in Europe and worldwide, euro in summer 2004.7 the EU pledges to use its policies—and its The EU should promote environmental resources—to address the world’s crises. “As a security throughout Europe, including its direct union of 25 states with over 450 million people neighbors. While the old saw asserts that producing a quarter of the world’s Gross Europe is an economic giant but a political National Product (GNP), and with a wide pygmy, the new Member States and the new range of instruments at its disposal, the European Constitution offer the opportunity European Union is inevitably a global play- for the EU to become a much stronger force for er….Europe should be ready to share in the peace and security worldwide. 15

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY United States words ring as true today as in 1960: “Today our concern must be with that future. For the world Will the United States complement these is changing. The old era is ending. The old ways efforts? Its role is pivotal, and suffice it to say will not do.”8 that Americans have had quite enough of Europeans telling them what they should do Conclusion (and we are well aware that we cannot do it without you). Fortunately, plenty of Americans When ECSP was launched in 1994, we could continue to push the cause of environmental reasonably have predicted that we would be security (for example, see Jared Diamond’s much closer to achieving environmental securi- commentary in this issue). Yale’s John Lewis ty (and sustainable development) than we are Gaddis has characterized the current adminis- today. While the developed countries may have tration’s strategy as hegemony, preemption, and adopted some good strategies at home, they unilateralism (PBS, 2003). According to the have mostly missed the opportunity offered by distinguished 9/11 Commission, we need coop- the post-Rio consensus to promote sustainabili- eration, enlightened aid (particularly for ty and equity worldwide. We have sown the Muslim countries), and a return to multilateral- wind, and now we reap the whirlwind (and ism (National Commission on Terrorist Attacks other extreme weather events!). Terrorism can upon the United States, 2004). The United only thrive when the majority of the world’s States should deploy such strategies, as it did at population lacks the basic necessities of life: the end of World War II and during the Cold clean water, enough food, fertile land, and War. But this time, it should also ensure that forests. We have the tools to achieve the MDGs they are sustainable, taking into account all of and equity for all. Their environmental security Kofi Annan’s burning issues, to ensure a more is our security, so we must challenge all our gov- complete security at all levels: global, national, ernments to implement the aid, trade, and human, and environmental. John F. Kennedy’s domestic policies so urgently needed to create a just world.

Notes

1. For more information on the Monterrey Commitments, see http://www.worldbank.org/ prospects/gdf2003/gdf_ch06_web.pdf. Although the highest levels of the UN have 2. For the current status of the Doha round, see the International Institute for Sustainable Development’s validated environmental security and are pre- Doha Round Briefing Series at http://www.iisd.org/ trade/wto/doha_briefing.asp, and also the World Trade pared to address it, these admirable efforts Organization’s overview of current agricultural negotiations at http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/ are hampered by the persistence of institu- agric_e/negoti_e.htm. 3. See, e.g., “DRC: IRIN Focus on Hema-Lendu tional barriers to cross-agency cooperation conflict” (1999). 4. See “Water, Conflict, and Cooperation” by and anemic exercise of political will by mem- Alexander Carius, Geoffrey Dabelko, and Aaron T. ber governments, not to mention the usual Wolf in this issue for more on shared water resources. 5. For more on the High-Level Panel, see “The chronic lack of funds. United Nations and Environmental Security: Recommendations for the Secretary-General’s High- Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change” in this issue. 16 6.The United States contributed 22 percent of the

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UN’s regular budget for 2003, whereas the European pressReleasesAction.do?reference=IP/04/ Union contributed 38 percent and Japan 20 percent 910&format=HTML&aged=0&language= (European Union, 2004a). EN&guiLanguage=en 7. For more information on the Water for Life ini- European Commission. (2004b, August 1). The WTO tiative, see http://europa.eu.int/comm/research/ framework agreement for fairer farm trade. Retrieved water-initiative/index_en.html. October 12, 2004, from http://europa.eu.int/ 8. For a transcript and recording of Senator John F. comm/agriculture/external/wto/index_en.htm Kennedy accepting the Democratic Party nomination European Union. (2003, December). A secure Europe for the Presidency of the United States (July 15, 1960), in a better world: European security strategy. Brussels. see http://www.jfklibrary.org/j071560.htm Retrieved October 19, 2004, from The Council of the European Union website: http://ue.eu.int/ uedocs/cmsUpload/78367.pdf References European Union. (2004a, May 1). The EU at the UN: Overview. Retrieved October 25, 2004, from Associated Press. (2004, March 21). CO2 buildup http://europa-eu-un.org/articles/en/ accelerating in atmosphere. Retrieved October 20, article_1001_en.htm 2004, from USAToday.com: European Union. (2004b, June 9). The EU http://www.usatoday.com/weather/news/ Constitution (reader friendly edition). Retrieved 2004-03-21-co2-buildup_x.htm October 18, 2004, from Brown, Lester R., Gary Gardner, & Brian Halweil. http://www.euabc.com/upload/rfConstitution_en.pdf (1999). Beyond Malthus: Nineteen dimensions of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). (2003). The population challenge. New York & London: state of food insecurity in the world 2003. Rome: FAO. Earthscan Publications. National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the Brusasco-Mackenzie, Margaret. (2001). “Environment United States. (2004). The 9/11 Commission report. and security.” In Felix Dodds & Toby Middleton Washington, D.C.: Government Printing Office. (Eds.), Earth summit 2002 (pages 179- 201). Retrieved October 4, 2004, from London: Earthscan. http://www.9-11commission.gov/ Center for Defense Information (CDI). (n.d.). Fiscal report/911Report.pdf year 2004 budget. Retrieved October 6, 2004, from Organization for Economic Cooperation and http://www.cdi.org/budget/2004/ Development (OECD). (2001, September 19). Commission of the European Communities. (2001, OECD supports “Millennium Development Goals” as May 15). A sustainable Europe for a better world: A set out by the UN after last year’s Millennium European Union strategy for sustainable development Summit. Retrieved October 4, 2004, from (Communication from the Commission). http://www.oecd.org/document/41/0,2340,en_ Retrieved October 1, 2004, from European Union 2649_201185_1907625_1_1_1_1,00.html website: http://europa.eu.int/eur-lex/ OECD. (2003, December 18). Net official development en/com/cnc/2001/com2001_0264en01.pdf assistance in 2002. Retrieved October 12, 2004, Department of Homeland Security. (n.d.). DHS budg- from http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/ et in brief: Fiscal year 2004. Retrieved October 4, 3/2/22460411.pdf 2004, from http://www.dhs.gov/dhspublic/ PBS. (2003, January 16). “Interview: John Lewis display?theme=12&content=430 Gaddis.” Frontline. Retrieved October 20, 2004, Devarajan, Shantayanan, Margaret J. Miller, & Eric V. from http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/ Swanson. (2002, April). Goals for development: frontline/shows/iraq/interviews/gaddis.html History, prospects and costs. Retrieved October 4, Population Reference Bureau (PRB). (2004). The 2004, from World Bank website: 2004 world population data sheet. Washington, http://econ.worldbank.org/files/ D.C.: PRB. Retrieved October 4, 2004, from 13269_wps2819.pdf http://www.prb.org/pdf04/04WorldDataSheet_ “DRC: IRIN focus on Hema-Lendu conflict.” (1999, Eng.pdf November 15). IRIN News. Retrieved October 4, United Nations. (2001). Statement by the Secretary- 2004, from http://www.irinnews.org/ General H.E. Mr. Kofi Annan to the General report.asp?ReportID=20578&SelectRegion= Assembly (New York, 10 November 2001). Great_Lakes&SelectCountry=DRC Retrieved October 12, 2004, from European Commission. (2004a, July 14). Commission http://www.un.org/webcast/ga/56/ tables detailed proposals for Community spending for statements/011110sgE.htm 2007-2013 (Press release IP/04/910). Retrieved United Nations. (2004, October 5). Sudan conflict October 1, 2004, from http://europa.eu.int/rapid/ could widen into regional, even global, confrontation, 17

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY if not properly addressed, Security Council told [Press vtx/chad?page=news&id=415d63134 Release SC/8206]. Retrieved October 20, 2004, United Nations Population Division. (2003). World from http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2004/ population prospects: The 2002 revision and world sc8206.doc.htm urbanization prospects: The 2001 revision. Retrieved United Nations Department of Economic and Social October 7, 2004, from http://esa.un.org/unpp Affairs. (2002). Johannesburg Summit 2002: Facts U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). about water. Retrieved October 12, 2004, from (2003, June 7). Bush seeks $11,290 million for for- http://www.johannesburgsummit.org/html/media_ eign aid in fiscal year 04; Putting aid in forefront of info/pressreleases_factsheets/wssd4_water.pdf foreign policy, USAID’s Natsios says [Press release]. United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). Retrieved October 7, 2004, from U.S. Embassy (2004). Human development report 2004. New Islamabad website: http://usembassy.state.gov/ York: UNDP. Retrieved October 4, 2004, from posts/pk1/wwwh03060704.html http://hdr.undp.org/statistics/data/mdg.cfm World Health Organization. (2004, March). Water, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). sanitation, and hygiene links to health: Facts and fig- (2002). Global environmental outlook 3: Past, pres- ures. Retrieved October 12, 2004, from ent and future perspectives. London: Earthscan. http://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/en/ United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees. factsfigures04.pdf (2004, October 1). “Security boost for Chad’s World Resources Institute (WRI). (2000). World camps amid rising violence against refugees.” resources 2000-2001. Washington, D.C.: WRI. Retrieved October 7, 2004, from Retrieved October 7, 2004, from http://www.unhcr.ch/cgi-bin/texis/ http://pubs.wri.org/pubs_pdf.cfm?PubID=3027

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004 COMMENTARY • The Next Steps for Environment, Population, and Security

From Environmental Peacemaking to Environmental Peacekeeping

owhere is the notion that water caus- for reducing tensions, broadening cooperation, es conflict more widespread than in fostering demilitarization, and promoting peace” Nthe Middle East. Former Secretary (page 9). While it is still not clear if environmen- General of the United Nations Boutros tal cooperation can lead directly to peace, we Boutros Ghali warned in 1985, “The next war should explore the environment’s potential as a in the Middle East will be fought over water, peacemaking tool in this increasingly unstable not politics” (Vesilind, 1993, page 53). More and conflictual world. During the next decade, than any other environmental resource, water three areas deserve our attention: is used to bolster claims that environmental degradation and resource scarcity produce con- • Are water resources more likely than other flict (e.g., Homer-Dixon, 1994).1 Over the last resources to provoke conflict and/or engen- few decades, scholars have sought to identify der peace? Intentionally or not, the essays in how competition over fresh water leads to Environmental Peacemaking (Conca & interstate conflict (Gleick, 1993; Ohlsson, Dabelko, 2002) largely focus on water. Are 1995; Elhance, 1999). other environmental resources also posi- The emphasis on conflict, however, has over- tioned to foster peace? shadowed the less provocative—but no less • Most of the security threats that emerged in major—premise that water is more likely to the 1990s are intrastate threats (e.g. civil war, induce cooperation than conflict, even in arid genocide, political instability, and state col- regions with scarce or unevenly distributed lapse), suggesting that we should focus on freshwater supplies (Wolf, 1998). For example, this lower level of analysis. Could we use the contrary to predictions that water might spark environment as a peacemaking tool within interstate conflict in post-Soviet Central Asia states and along tenuous border regions? (Panarin, 1994; Smith, 1995), water motivated • Can researchers, policymakers, and practi- cooperation among the five newly independent tioners move away from conflict scenarios states of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, and environmental peacemaking towards Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan (Weinthal, environmental peacekeeping? To date, the 2002). And despite all the hype about the environment has largely been promoted as a Middle East’s incipient water wars (Gleick, mechanism to mitigate hostilities and there- 1994; Starr, 1991), Israeli and Palestinian water fore bring about peace; yet, the environment managers continued to cooperate—even as might also offer opportunities in the post- other forms of economic and security coopera- conflict resolution phase to sustain a fragile ERIKA tion collapsed—after the second intifada began peace and prevent a return to violence. in 2000 (Rinat, 2001). WEINTHAL While conflict and violence still dominate the environmental security discourse, new research focusing on environmental peacemaking has Erika Weinthal is an associate professor challenged the assumed link to conflict. Conca in the Department of Political Science at & Dabelko (2002) suggest, “Environmental Tel Aviv University in Israel. cooperation can be an effective general catalyst 19

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY along the Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border and in The Water Crisis in the Gaza Strip the Fergana Valley between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan) are still unresolved, with no real 150 movement in either direction (International Water deficit Crisis Group, 2002). 140 The locus of potential conflict and political Domestic instability shifted from the interstate to the Natural local level for a number of reasons: replenishment 100 • Early donor programs trying to instigate cooperation in the Aral Sea Basin failed to 52 Anthropogenic build local capacity; stakeholders like local and international NGOs, for example, were Agriculture initially excluded from large-scale donor

MCM/year projects; 50 • Large multilateral organizations have directed aid primarily to large-scale infrastructure 33 Lateral flow projects, such as a drainage collector in the from east Amu Darya Basin, rather than smaller-scale projects in densely populated areas and border regions;2 and 0 • The first phase of donor assistance sought to Recharge Consumption reform the water and energy sectors at the 122 145 expense of cotton farming, which consumes Source: Data from UNEP (2003) the most water in the region. Cotton cultivation is not only the backbone of Central Asian economies, but also a mechanism for Central Asia and the Aral Sea: social and political control through which Interstate Cooperation but Local governments exchange social protection for Conflict political acquiescence (Weinthal, 2002).

International donors (e.g., the World Bank, the The case of the Aral Sea Basin underscores European Union’s Tacis Programme, and U.S. the need for future research on environmental Agency for International Development) sought peacemaking at the subnational level and in to mitigate threats to regional stability in the border regions. While peacemaking may start at Aral Sea Basin following the Soviet Union’s col- the interstate level, conflicts may fester at the lapse in 1991, given the region’s small-scale, intrastate level, unless local stakeholders are violent conflicts over land and water scarcity in included in the efforts to build peace. To use 1989-1990. Due to this proactive intervention, the environment as a vehicle for building trust the newly independent states established new and cooperation, policymakers should invest in institutions to jointly manage and protect the building local capacity, by strengthening local basin’s water bodies (see Weinthal, 2002; water user associations and civil society groups, Micklin, 2000). The prospects for acute inter- for example. Moreover, if policymakers and state conflict faded, and the Central Asian states practitioners want to ensure that conflict will currently maintain a low level of formal cooper- not erupt at both the interstate and intrastate ation through the 1998 agreement on water levels, they must understand the broader social and energy use in the Syr Darya Basin. and political context. Water-sharing problems 20 Nevertheless, local water disputes (especially at both levels cannot be effectively resolved

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004 unless the Central Asian states diversify their Gaza Strip faces a mounting water crisis; water agricultural economies by turning away from used in the Gaza Strip is not replenished, and water-intensive crops like cotton. To encourage groundwater quality has severely deteriorated as this diversification, donors must push for polit- saline water rapidly replaces fresh water. ical and economic reforms that would support Resolving this crisis will require Israel’s coop- family farms at the local level. eration, since the Gaza Strip shares the southern Lastly, researchers and practitioners should Mediterranean Coastal aquifer with its upstream assess whether they could use other environ- neighbor. Although the poor water quality is mental issues, besides water, to reduce interstate caused by intrusions of natural saline groundwa- and intrastate conflicts. Water has overshad- ter, overuse in the Gaza Strip exacerbates the owed efforts to combat desertification and the problem by lowering the water table and increas- loss of biodiversity in Central Asia. Peace parks ing the flow rate of natural saline water from along the border of Turkmenistan and Israel to the Gaza Strip (Vengosh et al., forth- Uzbekistan, for example, might provide innova- coming). Even though its upstream consump- tive opportunities for local communities to tion does not contribute to the aquifer’s deterio- work together—both within states and across ration, Israel could help mitigate salinity down- borders—to promote biodiversity, regional stream by increasing pumping along the border cooperation, and economic development. region, which would reduce the flow of natural saline water, while the Palestinians simultaneous- The Middle East: Peacekeeping ly limit or reduce pumping within the Gaza Strip Israeli and (Weinthal et al., in press). The international Palestinian water Water cooperation in the Middle East—unlike community should encourage Israel and the Central Asia—has proved daunting because Palestinian Authority to develop a joint manage- managers contin- political problems dwarf the region’s environment plan to implement this solution. With ued to cooperate— mental concerns. Conventional wisdom, which international assistance, desalination plants holds that larger political issues must be along the Israeli-Gaza Strip border could treat even as other forms resolved for cooperation to emerge, exacerbates the groundwater pumped by Israel and transport of economic and pessimism about the potential for environmen- it to the Gaza Strip. tal peacemaking in the region (see Lowi, 1993). This mutually beneficial plan would fortify security coopera- Yet, once the hostile parties embark upon the relations, especially after political borders are tion collapsed— road to peace, environmental issues could be established to separate the two parties. The used to sustain the journey. The Middle East Palestinian Authority would obtain another after the second could be a striking example of moving from source of drinking water for its growing popula- intifada began in environmental peacemaking to environmental tion and remediate the Gaza Strip’s salinity 2000. peacekeeping. While the environment will not problem. For Israel, the groundwater transfer bring Israel and the Palestinian Authority to the could serve as a goodwill gesture. While the bargaining table, it might provide one of the upstream-downstream scenario and the region’s few opportunities to foster interdependence political tension would argue against coopera- and hence sustain peaceful relations once the tion, a joint water management plan to solve two parties agree to end the conflict. the Gaza Strip’s water crisis could instead help After Kuwait, the Gaza Strip is the most keep the peace after an Israeli withdrawal. “water poor” region in the world, with only 52 cubic meters available per person each year Conclusion: Local Environmental (International Atomic Energy Agency, 2003). It Peacemaking and International is also one of the most densely populated areas Peacekeeping in the world: over 1.3 million Palestinians are crowded into approximately 400 square kilo- Environmental peacemaking promises to trans- meters (U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2004). The form our understanding of the link between the 21

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY

Elhance, Arun. (1999). Hydropolitics in the Third World: Conflict and cooperation in international river basins. Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace. Gleick, Peter. (1993). “Water and conflict: Fresh water resources and international security.” International While peacemaking may start at the interstate Security 18, 79-112. Gleick, Peter. (1994). “Water, war, and peace in the level, conflicts may fester at the intrastate Middle East.” Environment 36(3), 6-15, 35-41. Homer-Dixon, Thomas. (1994). “Environmental level, unless local stakeholders are included in scarcities and violent conflict: Evidence from cases.” International Security 19, 5-40. the efforts to build peace. International Crisis Group (ICG). (2002). Central Asia: Water and conflict (ICG Asia Report No. 34). Osh/Brussels: ICG. environment and conflict. However, two major International Atomic Energy Agency. (2003). “Fast arenas remain relatively unexplored: using the facts.” World water needs getting more critical (Staff Report). Retrieved September 7, 2004, from environment to prevent local conflicts and to http://www.iaea.org/NewsCenter/Features/Water/ maintain peace. Researchers and policymakers fastfacts_new.shtml seeking to expand environmental peacemaking Lowi, Miriam. (1993). Water and power: The politics of over the next decade should pursue the follow- a scarce resource in the Jordan River basin. ing agenda: Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. Micklin, Philip. (2000). Managing water in Central Asia. London: The Royal Institute of International Affairs. • Explore using other environmental re- Ohlsson, Leif (Ed.). (1995). Hydropolitics: Conflicts sources—not just water—as a source of coop- over water as a development constraint. London: Zed eration (e.g., peace parks); Books. • Focus more on intrastate—not just inter- Panarin, Sergei A. (1994). “Political dynamics of the state—conflicts; ‘New East’ (1985-1993).” In Vitaly V. Naumkin • Donor programs should pay attention to the (Ed.), Central Asia and Transcaucasia: Ethnicity and conflict (pages 69-107). Westport, Connecticut: social and political context and encourage Greenwood Press. local capacity building instead of simply Peluso, Nancy Lee & Michael Watts (Eds). (2001). emphasizing technical cooperation; and Violent environments. Ithaca: Cornell University • Recognize that conflict resolution also requires Press. maintaining peace. Therefore, environmental Rinat, Zafrir. (2001, May). “Palestinian water depend- peacemakers should conceptualize a new ence upon Israel will increase.” Ha’aretz. Smith, David R. (1995). “Environmental security and approach—environmental peacekeeping. shared water resources in post-Soviet Central Asia.” Post-Soviet Geography 36, 351-370. Notes Starr, Joyce R. (1991, Spring). “Water wars.” Foreign Policy 82, 17-36. 1. For a critique of the environmental security litera- United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). ture focusing on conflict, see Peluso and Watts (2001). (2003). Desk study on the environment in the 2. After activists criticized this approach, the inter- Occupied Palestinian Territories. Nairobi, Kenya: national community invested in some local projects, UNEP. such as supporting water user associations and retro- U.S. Bureau of the Census. (2004). IDB summary fitting local canals. demographic data for Gaza Strip. Retrieved September 12, 2004, from References http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/ipc/idbsum?cty=GZ Vengosh, Avner, Amer Marei, Wolfram Kloppmann, Conca, Ken & Geoffrey D. Dabelko. (2002). Yakov Livshitz, Alexis Gutierrez, Mazen Banna, Environmental peacemaking. Washington, D.C. and Catherine Guerrot, & Irena Pankratov. Baltimore: Woodrow Wilson Center Press and The (Forthcoming). “Sources of salinity and boron in 22 Johns Hopkins University Press. the Gaza Strip: Natural contaminant flow in the

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004 Mediterranean Coastal Aquifer.” Water Resources Press. Research. Weinthal, Erika, Avner Vengosh, Amer Marei, Alexis Vesilind, Priit J. (1993, May). “Water: The Middle Gutierrez, & Wolfram Kloppmann. (in press). East’s critical resource.” National Geographic “The water crisis in the Gaza Strip: Prospects for 183(5), 38-70. resolution.” Groundwater. Weinthal, Erika. (2002). State making and environmen- Wolf, Aaron T. (1998). “Conflict and cooperation tal cooperation: Linking domestic and international along international waterways.” Water Policy 1, politics in Central Asia. Cambridge, MA: MIT 251-265.

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COMMENTARY • The Next Steps for Environment, Population, and Security

Demographic Security Comes of Age

n the day I began to write this essay, Demographic security issues are on many The New York Times reported that multilateral agendas, as demonstrated by the OPakistan planned to bulldoze all Afghan European Union’s concern with its aging refugee camps within three miles of its northwest native population and its growing Muslim border. U.S. intelligence satellites had tracked communities (Savage, 2004), and the UN’s cross-border movements to and from these settle- focus on poverty, trade in light weapons, and ments, and Pakistani Army units repeatedly HIV transmission in new cities along the truck engaged insurgents in the area (Gall, 2004). routes winding through Africa (Hope, 1998; Another article discussed international opposi- UN-Habitat, 2003). These seemingly hodge- tion to the wall Israel is constructing on the West podge issues are connected by a common the- Bank—ostensibly to eliminate terrorist incur- oretical thread: the “demographic transition,” sions, but in practice to exclude and isolate the or the process by which a population charac- rapidly growing Palestinian population (Hoge, terized by relatively short lives and large fami- 2004). Two other accounts attracted my atten- lies is transformed into a population com- tion: a report on U.S. foreign aid for Haiti, which posed principally of people living longer lives has the youngest and fasting growing population and having small families (Figure 1). In our in the Western Hemisphere, and an analysis of 2003 monograph The Security Demographic: factional political violence in the Gaza Strip—a Population and Civil Conflict after the Cold tiny enclave that hosts one of the youngest and War, my colleagues, Robert Engelman and fastest growing populations in Asia. Daniele Anastasion, and I contend that the What do these articles have in common? demographic transition is the key to under- Each focused on an event with implications for standing demographic security issues. national or global security and had an unmis- takable demographic component, and there- Civil Strife and Soft Landings fore, lies within the domain of “demographic security.” Demographic security addresses the To test this notion, we compared demographic security aspects of: data from the United Nations Population Division (UNPD, 2003) and the Uppsala • A population’s size, age structure, geographic Conflict Data Project’s global database.1 We distribution, or ethnic composition; and focused only on civil conflicts—revolutions, eth- • Changes in these demographic conditions nic and religious insurgencies, state-sponsored and interactions among them, including violence, and domestic terrorism. This broad migration, population growth, shifts in the class of intrastate conflicts nearly tripled in RICHARD P. age structure, and changing location and annual prevalence between 1950 and 1992, and CINCOTTA proportion of ethnic and religious groups. their average duration has grown since the 1980s (Collier, Hoeffler, & Söderbom, 2001). After filtering out persistent and recurring Richard P. Cincotta is senior research conflicts, we found countries in the early and middle stages of the demographic transition— associate at Population Action with high birth and death rates—much more International, a policy research organiza- likely to experience an outbreak of new civil 24 tion in Washington, D.C. conflict than those farther along in the transi-

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004

tion (i.e., with lower birth and death rates). The Demographic Risk Factors trend held up through the 1970s and 1980s, as well as the post-Cold War 1990s, suggesting Researchers have found at least eight demo- that superpower funding, training, and military graphic topics associated with political instabil- hardware may have influenced the nature and ity or conflict. These are: intensity of Cold War-era civil conflicts more High proportion of young adults ages 15 than developing states’ vulnerability to them to 29 years—a “youth bulge”—among the (see Figure 2). working-age population. In the 1990s, states Our research also shows that the statistical with a large youth bulge were nearly 2.5 times likelihood of civil conflict decreased consistent- as likely to experience an outbreak of civil con- ly as countries’ birth rates declined, suggesting flict as other states (Cincotta, Engelman, & that for most states, the demographic transition Anastasion, 2003).2 York University researchers promotes a “soft landing.” Significantly, a soft Christian Mesquida and Neil Weiner (1996, landing is not an inherent property of the dem- 1999) have also demonstrated that the intensi- ocratic transition, which features instabilities ty of recent conflict in war-torn regions is posi- midway along its path. Partial democracies— tively correlated to the proportion of young states offering an institutional admixture of adults in the adult population. civil freedoms and authoritarian constraints— Rapid urban population growth. During the U.S. foreign policy are more statistically vulnerable to state failure 1990s, countries with a high rate of urban popu- should improve than either fully democratic or wholly authori- lation growth were about twice as likely as other tarian regimes (Esty et al., 1999). states to experience an outbreak of civil conflict. girls’ access to Some developing countries appear to risk On the ground, researchers and policymakers schooling and similar instabilities midway through their may find it difficult to separate urban growth and transition to an open free-market economy. In the youth bulge. In countries where agriculture is women’s access to a series of analytical case studies, Amy Chua no longer promising, young adults typically family planning, (2002) has demonstrated that IMF-leveraged migrate to urban centers in search of education, maternal health liberalization policies unwittingly provide employment, and opportunities for immigration. market-savvy ethnic minorities with opportu- Thus, urban centers, where political protest is care, and income- nities to gain further control over capital. more easily organized, tend to have unusually generating oppor- Coupled with fast-paced democratic reforms, high proportions of young adults in their work- increased inequalities fuel ethnic animosities, ing-age population (Fuller & Pitts, 1990). tunities. boost popular support for nationalist political Low levels of per capita cropland and/or movements and, in some cases, act as a spring- fresh water. Cross-country statistical evidence board for demagogues to attain political office does not demonstrate that low per capita sup- (Chua, 2002). plies of either fresh water or cropland increase The security dynamics of these transitions the risk of full-fledged civil conflict on their lend credence to the hypothesis that early-phase own. Nonetheless, the added risks to states states—including Iraq, Pakistan, and Nigeria— under stress could be underrated. For example, might lower their risk of civil conflict during in the 1990s, about half of all countries with their transitions to democracy and free markets high proportions of young adults and low levels if they advanced through the demographic of one or both of these critical resources experi- transition. This thesis explains the substantial enced an outbreak of civil conflict (Cincotta et democratic, social, and economic progress of al, 2003). Leif Ohlsson (2000) has argued that certain East Asian states (particularly South scarcities of critical natural resources undermine Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Singapore, and the ability of agricultural economies to absorb Malaysia), where significant declines in fertility labor, promoting landless poverty and thus preceded substantial and successful democratic accelerating the growth of urban slums and pro- and free-market reforms. viding potential recruits for insurgencies. 25

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY

Pre- Post- Transition Early Middle Late Transition groups in the population) are perceived as threats to the political character, traditions, or 45 cultural practices of another group. Tensions can also arise when groups are denied political Birth access commensurate with their perceived share Rate of the population. Such tensions are likely to 35 increase in the 21st century, as ethnic populations within countries progress through the Death demographic transition. Unfortunately, many Rate Population Size 25 countries lack accurate data on ethnic composition and differential ethnic fertility and mortality rates, limiting opportunities for country (per thousand people) Birth and Death Rate 15 analyses and cross-national comparisons. Migration. Refugees and other cross-border migrants often evoke fears and provoke anti- immigrant tensions in host countries. While 5 the vast majority of migrants seek only to eke out a living or assimilate, some aid insurgents or actively participate in insurgencies. Trends and policies that influence migration, ethnic rela- Years tions, separatism, and assimilation warrant closer study and more accurate data. Aging and population decline. Some econ- Figure 1. The demographic transition (an idealized version of which is pic- omists and demographers are alarmed by the tured) is comprised of two components: birth rate and death rate transitions. purportedly deleterious effects of aging popula- Historically, the death rates have dropped before birth rates. Rapid population tions on social cohesion and economic prosper- growth occurs when a gap opens up between birth and death rates. Individually, ity. This is uncertain terrain; industrial coun- birth rate and death rate transitions have taken from 50 to 150 years to com- Figure 1. he demographic transition (an idealied ersionv of whichtries ar iseed) just pictur beginning is to grapple with the chal- plete. Some developing countries are passing through these transitions rapidly, comprised ofo tw components birth rate and death rate transitions. istorlengesically, of shrinking the workforces and growing much faster than European or North American populations did during the 19th death rates have dropped before birth rate s. apid population growth proportionsoccurs whenof the elderly.a So far, none of the and early 20th centuries. gap opens up between birth and death arte s. ndividually, birth rate andaging death countries rate has experienced unusual eco- Source: Cincotta, Engelman, and Anastasion (2003) transitions ehav taken from 0 to 10 years to complete. ome developingnomic orcountries political are instability—including passing through these transitions rapidly, much faster than opeanur Russia,or orth where American the median age has risen to 38 populations did during the 19thHigh mor andtality early 20th ratesen amongturies.c working-age and population is declining by around 1 mil- adults (indicative of high rates of AIDS mortal- lion people (0.7 percent) annually (DaVanzo & ity). There is insufficient statistical evidence to Grammich, 2001). European countries with link HIV/AIDS to the outbreak of conflict. fast-growing Muslim minorities are most con- Nonetheless, we should explore the arguments cerned with the decline of the native-born pop- that point to the disease’s effects: large youth ulation; in these states, issues of national identi- bulge, the loss of key professionals, weakened ty, religion, and culture are at stake—and thus military and police units, and unprecedented tend to color the discussion of population numbers of orphans. The future demographic decline, aging, and security (Savage, 2004). impacts of HIV/AIDS are likely to exceed those High sex ratios (populations where men of the 1980s and 1990s dramatically. vastly outnumber women). In their new book, Differential growth rates among ethnic political scientists Valerie Hudson and Andrea and religious groups. Tensions can arise when den Boer (2004) use historical accounts to changes in ethnic or religious group distribu- make the case that populations with a high sex 26 tion and composition (the proportions of such ratio are more vulnerable to political unrest and

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004

civil conflict. The authors focus on contempo- momentum and thus difficult to reverse (save rary China and India, where sons are strongly some enormous catastrophe or burst of migra- preferred to daughters. As in other Asian coun- tion) because past population dynamics have tries, public access to ultrasound technology already established the size of the reproductive- and amniocentesis has facilitated sex-selective age population for the next 15 to 20 years. abortion, resulting in highly skewed sex ratios. Separating the security-related effects of skewed Next Steps for Policymakers sex ratios from those of the youth bulge and other demographic and social phenomena may While the plethora of unresolved controver- prove difficult, but this provocative thesis, sies and unanswered questions will no doubt although speculative, should nonetheless stimu- drive further research in demographic security, late further research. the post-9/11 price for policy inaction and disengagement is extraordinarily high and will Demography Is Not Destiny be measured in security crises, failed states, and lost human lives. Thus, we should ask: For those involved in foreign policy, demo- how can professionals in the diplomatic, mili- Early-phase states— graphic changes can be viewed most construc- tary, and intelligence communities act, in a tively as challenges and vulnerabilities to the timely fashion, upon the results of demo- including Iraq, state and its institutions—or, in some instances, graphic security research? Pakistan, and as options and opportunities. For example, If our conclusions are true, then the when jobs are scarce, a large and growing youth responses are self-evident: U.S. foreign policy Nigeria—might bulge can lead to increased discontent, crime, should improve girls’ access to schooling and lower their risk of and political unrest. States have responded in women’s access to family planning, maternal several ways to this stress: drawing young men health care, and income-generating opportuni- civil conflict during into the military and internal security forces, ties. Improving women’s status can influence their transitions to exercising repressive controls, or promoting social environments, help change cultural labor out-migration to industrial countries and norms, and ultimately speed the demographic democracy and free facilitating remittances (savings sent home by transition. Increasing women’s participation in markets if they foreign workers; Ware, 2003). However, when government, particularly in post-conflict nego- investment-driven job growth provides educat- tiations, could help shift priorities away from advanced through ed young adults with economic and social armed confrontation and towards human the demographic mobility, a youth bulge could provide a large development. The presence of high numbers of group of taxable workers for the workforce. qualified women in important and visible transition. Similarly, high rates of urbanization often pro- diplomatic and military roles at home and duce slum housing and inadequate services, abroad would also contribute to changing atti- increasing the risk of crime and civil unrest. Yet, tudes about women’s roles. where infrastructure investment accompanies To facilitate changes based on the security urban growth, cities are significant sources of demographic, the national security community economic growth. should make the demographic transition part of The demographic future is anything but cer- their global threat assessments and scenario tain; demographic trends are not immutable. exercises. Analysts should consider the security That said, some aspects of population dynamics implications of trends in age structure, urban are clearly more susceptible to interventions. In slum growth, rural landlessness, ethnic growth- the recent past, policies and programs have had rate imbalances, and other demographic fac- enormous effects on childhood mortality and tors. And, when asked to comment on the secu- fertility, particularly in East Asia and the rity implications of demography, analysts Caribbean. Population growth and decline are should remind policymakers of the programs not as malleable; these trends are imbued with already available in the “foreign aid toolbox”— 27

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY

0.60 those risks, underscore the need for donors and 1970s developing-country governments to increase 0.50 financial and political support for policies and 1980s programs that lead to positive demographic 1990s changes: those that expand girls’ educational 0.40 opportunities, give couples the ability to choose the timing and frequency of childbirth, and increase women’s participation in government 0.30 and in the workplace.

Notes 0.20 1. For discussion of the database, see Gleditsch, Likelihood of Wallensteen, Eriksson, Sollenberg, & Strand (2002) 0.10 and Wallensteen & Sollenberg (2001). To access the database, visit http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/ UCDP_toplevel.htm. 2. See also Urdal (2001), Goldstone (1991), and

0 Civil Conflict Moller (1967/68). >45 35 - 45 25 - 35 15 - 25 <15 References Birth Rate (births per thousand people) Chua, Amy L. (2002). World on fire: How exporting free market democracy breeds ethnic hatred and global Figure 2. As countries' birth rates declined during the last three decades of the instability. New York: Doubleday. 20th century, their likelihood of civil conflict also tended to decline. While this Cincotta, Richard P., Robert Engelman, & Daniele relationship was most dramatic in the 1990s, it was also evident during the 1970s Anastasion. (2003). The security demographic: Figure 2. Asountr c ies' birthate declined r during theee last decades thrPopulation of andthe civil conflict after the cold war. and 1980s, decades during which many civil conflicts were considered to be Cold Washington, D.C.: Population Action 20th centuryW,ar heir"proxyt wars" likeliho (eachod side of supported civilonflict by one c of the opposingalsoended superpowers). t to decline . WhileInternational. this relationshipSource: was Cincotta, most Engelman,ama dr ticand Anastasion in (2003)the 1990s,it was alsovident e during Collier,the Paul, Anke Hoeffler, & Måns Söderbom. (2001). On the duration of civil war (Development 1970s and 1980s, ecadesd during which many civilonflicts c ere w onsideredc Researcho Groupt Discussion Paper). Washington, be Cold War "proxy wars" (each namelysideort, voluntary edsupp by family one planning of services theosing and opp D.C.: World Bank. superpowers). girls’ education—that promote positive demo- DaVanzo, Julie & Clifford Grammich. (2001). Dire graphic and social change. demographics: Population trends in the Russian Globally, the demographic transition is Federation. Santa Monica: RAND. Esty, Daniel C., Jack A. Goldstone, Ted Robert Gurr, incomplete. One-third of all countries in the Barbara Harff, Marc Levy, Geoffrey D. Dabelko, world remain in the early stages, with four or Pamela T. Surko, & Alan N. Unger. (1999). “State more children per woman. When the northern Failure Task Force report: Phase II findings.” states of India are included, this population— Environmental Change and Security Report 5, 49-72. the most conflict-affected in the world—com- Fuller, Gary & Forrest R. Pitts. (1990). “Youth cohorts and political unrest in South Korea.” Political prises about 1.5 billion people (UNPD, 2003). Geography Quarterly 9 (1), 9-22. Unfortunately, the demographic stresses Gall, Carlotta. (2004, July 21). “Pakistan Army ousts endured by these countries are likely to receive Afghan refugees in militants’ area.” New York Times, less and less attention as the news media focuses page A8. instead on the industrial world’s demographic Gleditsch, Nils Petter, Peter Wallensteen, Mikael issues: population aging, population decline, Eriksson, Margareta Sollenberg, & Havard Strand. (2002). “Armed conflict 1946-2001: A new and immigration. The significant risks of delay- dataset.” Journal of Peace Research 39 (5), 615-637. ing progress through the demographic transi- Goldstone, Jack A. (1991). Revolution and rebellion in 28 tion, and the decades it can take to dissipate the early modern world. Berkeley: University of

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California Press. Crescent waxing, cultures clashing.” Washington Hoge, Warren. (2004, July 21). “Remove wall, Israel is Quarterly 27 (3), 25-50. told by the U.N.” New York Times, page A10. UN-Habitat. (2003). The challenge of slums: Global Hope, Kemp Robert. (1998). “Urbanization and urban report on human settlements 2003. New York: growth in Africa.” Journal of Asian and African United Nations Human Settlements Programme. Studies 33(3), 345-358. United Nations Population Division (UNPD). (2003). Hudson, Valerie & Andrea den Boer. (2004). Bare World population prospects: The 2002 revision. New branches: The security implications of Asia’s surplus York: United Nations Department of Economic male population. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press. and Social Affairs. Mesquida, Christian G. & Neil I. Wiener. (1996). Urdal, Henrik. (2001, November). Population pressure “Human collective aggression: A behavioral ecology and domestic conflict: Assessing the role of ‘youth perspective.” Ethology and Sociobiology 17, 247-262. bulges’ in the onset of conflict, 1950-2000. Paper pre- Mesquida, Christian G. & Neil I. Wiener. (1999). sented at the Fourth Pan-European International “Male age composition and the severity of con- Relations Conference, University of Kent, flicts.” Politics in the Life Sciences 18(2), 181-189. Canterbury, United Kingdom. Moller, Herbert. (1967/68). “Youth as a force in the Wallensteen, Peter & Margareta Sollenberg. (2001). modern world.” Comparative Studies in Society and “Armed conflict, 1989-2000.” Journal of Peace History 10, 237-260. Research 38(5), 629-644. Ohlsson, Leif. (2000). Livelihood conflicts: Linking Ware, Helen. (2003, November). Pacific demography, poverty and environment as causes of conflict. population pressure, migration and conflict. Paper Stockholm: SIDA Environmental Policy Unit. presented at the IUSSP Seminar on the Savage, Timothy M. (2004). “Europe and Islam: Demography of Conflict and Violence, Oslo.

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY

COMMENTARY • The Next Steps for Environment, Population, and Security

An Agenda for Population, Health, and Environment

arth’s ecosystems and its human popula- ists, and community development experts link tion are inherently connected. The fun- factors like environmental stress, fertility, damental relationships are fairly easy to migration, women’s health, women’s education- E 1 grasp: Earth provides energy and raw materials al status, and economic decisions. for human activities, which in turn affect the Local communities welcome integrated ecosystems; damage to those environmental interventions because they reflect the reality goods can adversely affect people’s health and of people’s lives. Water shortages and unclean well-being. International attention to these water affect their children’s health. Areas of high linkages peaked in the 1990s, but innovative biodiversity often attract migrants, increasing community-based initiatives continue to the impact on natural resources. Unchecked address them. This article explores population, coastal development may pollute coastal waters, health, and environment (PHE) connections, damage fisheries, and ultimately reduce eco- identifying our accomplishments, current chal- nomic opportunities, food security, human lenges, and priorities. health, and marine resources. When local communities are empowered, What have we accomplished? they can sometimes convince decision-makers to address these issues in an integrated Around the world, many programs address manner. Some institutions, such as government PHE connections by incorporating repro- committees charged with integrating PHE con- ductive health into environmental protec- cerns into national development strategies, pro- tion programs or vice versa. Local conserva- mote sustainable development and encourage tion groups, national governments, and inter- collaboration across ministries and government national organizations are using integrated departments. As a result, policies to solve broad interventions in the world’s biodiversity problems like food shortages may address a hotspots and tropical wildernesses. These new wide range of issues, such as migration, intensi- approaches integrate family planning and con- fied industrialization, and food imports. Short- ROGER- servation activities in community-based proj- term solutions for a single sector are unlikely to MARK ects, through which ecologists, health special- be effective over the long term. DE SOUZA Some donors are supporting integrated work. In the United States, PHE funding increased in the late 1990s, but this growth has Roger-Mark De Souza is the technical been fueled by only a handful of foundations, director of the population, health, and such as the David and Lucile Packard environment program at the Population Foundation and the Compton Foundation, and Reference Bureau. His responsibilities public sources like the United States Agency for International Development and the National include designing, managing, and imple- Institutes of Health. The total amount of inte- menting policy research, capacity build- grated funding, however, is only a small per- ing, technical assistance, and media centage of overall population and environmen- 30 projects in developing countries. tal funding (Gibbs, 2003).

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New models and technology address PHE What kind of interventions will have the great- linkages. Technological advances have enabled est impact? If we want to preserve old growth farmers to grow more food on less land, cities to forests, should we fight corruption that awards clean wastewater, and nations to protect areas of favorable concessions to rapacious logging com- significant biodiversity. In India, for example, panies, or should we prevent migrant workers communities have used new technologies and from moving in? These interventions are diffi- community mobilization to convert open- cult to evaluate, partly due to poor-quality data access natural resources into community-con- on the factors driving change. trolled resources, thereby increasing the resi- Collaboration is complicated by major dents’ incomes from forest products and pro- differences in paradigms, assumptions, and tecting the area’s biodiversity (McNeely & definitions. Reconciling different (and some- Scherr, 2003, pages 46-47, 234). In addition, times contradictory) conceptual approaches is research-based programs and policies have complicated by divergent methodologies and enhanced environmental protection and the conflicting interests of individuals, commu- improved human well-being. Examples include nities, organizations, and governments. Zimbabwe’s experience decentralizing wildlife Business as usual often stymies collabora- user rights in the CAMPFIRE program, which tion. Some organizations are reluctant to add a was adopted in other Southern African coun- program in another sector, like a conservation A common stum- tries, and the National Biodiversity Institute organization providing family planning services, bling block for (INBio) of Costa Rica’s bioprospecting initia- even if it would maximize their impact. They do tive, which was adapted by projects in Mexico, not have the resources, expertise, or staff capaci- researchers, pro- Indonesia, and the Philippines (World ty, and they feel that such efforts would divert gram managers, Resources Institute, 1997). them from their stated mission. Similarly, donors fund projects according to specific pro- local communities, Why have we not done more? gram areas, and when funding is tight, they fall and donors is how back on more established programs. At the Examining, designing, implementing, and community level, integrated programs may be to “do integration.” funding integrated work is a continuing constrained by cultural and religious norms, challenge. A common stumbling block for especially when addressing sensitive issues like researchers, program managers, local communi- the role of women in natural resource manage- ties, and donors is how to “do integration.” ment or voluntary modern family planning PHE scholars and practitioners have not settled methods. Traditional practices, cultural differ- on a unifying methodology. Program documen- ences, or powerful interests may block integrat- tation tends to target the funding agency and ed efforts to change the status quo. should be disseminated broadly so that other The exclusion of “influentials” impedes program managers can determine when to apply implementation. Influentials (e.g., journalists, an integrated approach. Similarly, decision- important community members, and political, makers grapple with how to apply integrated civic, and religious leaders) can shape policy policies across sectors, budgets, and regulations. and influence attitudes and behaviors. When And donors remain largely wedded to tradition- influentials are excluded from a research project al sectoral funding approaches, only occasionally or program, they may not support its recom- dabbling in cross-sectoral experiments. mendations. Journalists, for example, need sim- The complexity of these linkages clouds the ple ways to explain the demographic and health appropriate intervention points. Intuitively, dimensions of environmental stories, a news linking population, health, and environment “peg” that can sell the story to their editors, and issues makes sense. This link is less clear, how- access to information and experts. If the media ever, when other variables, such as technology, are included in projects and given opportunities culture, economics, or politics, come into play. to report, they could help bring PHE issues to 31

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY

the attention of policymakers and the public. If are refining methodologies, field practitioners included, policymakers may also better under- are testing approaches, and advocates are build- stand the applicability—as well as the legal, ing a body of evidence. However, this process budgetary, and regulatory implications—of could take many years, and this timeframe is research results. out of sync with electoral terms, funding cycles, Messages do not clearly illustrate how inte- and immediate needs. gration helps constituents. Researchers, advocates, and program staff need to develop simple, What should we do now? evidence-based, and compelling messages that convey the importance of integrated programs. Increase understanding of PHE linkages and Such messages could help, for example, a conser- their impacts. We need to reach policymakers, vation organization understand how addressing researchers, and the public by effectively dis- human migration furthers its conservation goals, seminating critical PHE information. We must: an adolescent reproductive health program justi- fy adding a community conservation program, • Determine the information needed by poli- or a policymaker recognize that food security and cymakers and communities to make deci- economic opportunities increase when commu- sions and provide it in formats suitable for nity members voluntarily choose to space their non-technical audiences; children and preserve mangrove forests. • Identify those aspects of PHE, related to PHE data are difficult to find and com- urgent development needs, that are most pare across sectors and scales. Demographic applicable for research and policy; and ecological data are not collected at compa- • Initiate and coordinate research projects that rable geographic scales. Demographic surveys test methodologies, address topics relevant are usually conducted within a political region, to current policies, and can influence policy such as a district or country, whereas environ- deliberations and decisions; and mental data cover a particular ecosystem or • Develop indicators that can measure success landscape, often crossing political boundaries. and demonstrate the value added by taking In addition, it is difficult to find data at local an integrated (instead of a single-sector) levels, such as data on migration in particular approach. communities. Wide-ranging project indicators inhibit Strengthen advocates’ abilities to focus poli- developing common thresholds and stan- cy attention on key PHE issues. To build dards. Determining how much to invest with- momentum for PHE integration, advocates out a standard method for measuring and eval- must trumpet success stories and express its uating success can be difficult. Similarly, with- advantages in terms that appeal to constituents. out a common set of approaches for imple- We need to: menting integrated programs, managers face a difficult question: should they partner with • Explain to environmental organizations why other groups to complement their skills or population is key to their work, and explain develop integrated expertise within their staff? to population organizations how environ- Should all of a program’s interventions have mental analysis furthers their objectives; population, health, and environment dimen- • Convince donors to increase and sustain fund- sions or should separate departments set parallel ing for PHE research, programs, and advocacy population, health, and environment goals? by tying PHE interventions to development Limited timeframes and uncertainties priorities, garnering political will, demonstrat- inhibit political will. Demographic and envi- ing tangible benefits to local communities, ronmental change can be slow, uncertain, and and encouraging foundations to fill funding 32 imperceptible over the short term. Researchers gaps left by government and bilateral aid;

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Table: Challenges in addressing population, health, and environment linkages

Category of Challenges

Audience Methodology Collaboration Communication Measurement Limited theoretical No incentive to End users (e.g., Data are not Researchers literature collaborate across communities and available and/or disciplines policymakers) are comparable across not included sectors and scales

Approaches are not Lack of cross- Lack of integrated Lack of monitoring Program documented sectoral program messages and evaluation managers and partnerships and and coordination indicators staff staff capacity; across departments possible “mission and programs drift” Appropriate points Cultural and Integration’s Data are not Communities of entry are not religious traditions relevance to available at identified (among others) community appropriate scale discourage change priorities is not demonstrated

Long-standing Lack of Integration is not Return on Donors traditional coordination linked to investment is not divisions within donor legislative measured agencies and priorities among donors Lack of policy Accountability is Integration is not Short political Policymakers examples spread across linked to timeframes make budgets and constituents’ integration spheres of priorities politically responsibility unpalatable and infeasible

• Conduct expert seminars for journalists, analysis into environmental decision-making increase their understanding of technical and programming; issues, and suggest investigative techniques • Help population specialists at the regional and leads for covering PHE linkages; and and country level access state-of-the-art • Give policymakers examples of approaches information and provide methodological they can use and frame policy issues in terms advice for addressing these issues in policy of constituents’ needs. work and population-development programs; Increase capacity for cross-sectoral program- • Share tools and approaches, such as project ming and funding by providing technical design and evaluation methods; assistance. We must: • Explore ways for natural and social scientists to contribute to field-based programming; • Develop materials (e.g., workshops, manu- and als, toolkits) to help key actors, such as • Improve reproductive health services by inte- wildlife conservationists, health promoters, grating population and environment pro- and coastal managers, integrate demographic gramming. 33

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY

Build expertise to contribute to policy deci- sented as a human rights issue. This was impor- sions. Field practitioners should learn to mobi- tant for some countries, such as Costa Rica and El lize and train others, advocate policy change, Salvador, as it highlighted international conven- and communicate effectively. We need to: tions to which their governments had subscribed. International actors and partners played • Conduct training sessions to help researchers an important role by focusing attention on and advocates communicate with policy- gender and environment. Donors from the makers; Netherlands, the Canadian International • Create, support, and strengthen local PHE Development Agency, and the World Bank To build momen- networks and build coalitions; and worked with civil society for over four years on tum for PHE inte- • Develop approaches and materials that use a number of collaborative projects. As a result, environmental data to advocate for popula- governments recognized the importance of gen- gration, advocates tion and reproductive health issues. der and environment integration and started must trumpet suc- working with civil society actors on these issues. Putting Lessons to Work Information and indicators helped create cess stories and awareness. By presenting results from collabo- express its advan- In 2003, with support from the Compton rative projects, civil society helped show policy- Foundation, Population Reference Bureau makers how gender differentials affect environ- tages in terms that (PRB) conducted a PHE case study, mental policies and programs. appeal to con- “Generating Political Will for Population, Influentials, particularly policymakers, Health, and Environment.” The case study were involved from the beginning. NGOs stituents. summarized an eight-year process that led to worked closely with governments from the the adoption of gender equity policies and start: IUCN, for example, is an international action plans in the environmental agencies of organization whose membership is composed every government in Mesoamerica (Central of governments and NGOs, and the Institute of America and Mexico). PRB reviewed project Mexican Women, an influential NGO coali- documents, surveyed and interviewed project tion, has worked closely with the Mexican gov- staff, and carried out field-based observations. ernment for many years. The case study documented policy successes Influential coalitions kept PHE issues on (policy changes, allocation of funds, workplans, the policy agenda long enough. IUCN had ministerial declarations); identified factors that already been working on gender and environ- influenced the policy agenda, such as donor ment issues for five years when it was interest, international agreements, and political approached by government agencies. A large events; examined the role of key groups or poli- network of agencies, champions, academic cy champions, including NGOs like IUCN- institutions, NGO coalitions, a regional policy The World Conservation Union; and observed commission, and donors kept the gender and the importance of disseminating information— environment connection on the agenda long through media reports, policy briefings, enough for policy to change. In all, it took eight research reports, presentations, ministry docu- years to convince the governments to incorpo- ments, and site visits—to garnering govern- rate gender into their environmental mandate. ment attention. The results demonstrated that These findings confirm that PHE experts the actions described in this article can mobilize can use a systematic process to influence political will on PHE issues. policy: Project partners set the policy agenda by framing the issues so that government bodies • Raise awareness through targeted informa- would be receptive. In this case, the links tion dissemination; between gender and the environment were pre- • Set the agenda by getting policymakers to 34

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recognize the importance of the issue; and References • Build coalitions by working with a variety of actors to keep the issue on the policy agenda De Souza, Roger-Mark, John S. Williams, & Frederick long enough for change to occur. A.B. Meyerson. (2003). Critical links: Population, health, and the environment (Population Bulletin 58, no. 3).Washington, D.C.: Population Reference This process may enable PHE programs to Bureau. prioritize activities, establish benchmarks and Engelman, Robert. (1998). Plan and conserve: A source indicators of success, and determine if efforts book on linking population and environment services are sustainable. in communities. Washington, D.C.: Population Action International. Conclusion Gibbs, Susan. (2003). “Population and environment: A review of funding themes and trends.” Environmental Change and Security Project 9, 41-58. When we link population policy and reproduc- McNeely, Jeffrey A. & Sara J. Scherr. (2003). tive health interventions with environmental Ecoagriculture: Strategies to feed the world and save management, we improve our health, our econo- wild biodiversity. Washington, D.C.: Island Press. my, and our children’s future. Researchers can, Pebley, Anne R. (1998). “Demography and the envi- and must, educate policymakers and the public. ronment.” Demography 35:4, 377-89. Riesenberger, Jodie. (2002). Planting seeds, meeting Informed policymakers can address these com- needs: New partnerships for community-based resource plex long-term issues by implementing policies conservation and reproductive health. Washington, that balance far-reaching benefits with short-term D.C.: Population Action International. costs. Local communities can empower them- United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). (2001). selves and effectively manage their environment, State of world population 2001. Footprints and mile- stones: Population and environmental change. while simultaneously improving education, pri- Retrieved October 5, 2004, from mary health care, livelihood opportunities, and http://www.unfpa.org/swp/2001/docs/ the status of women. Ultimately, these approach- swp2001eng.pdf es will help us match development needs with Vogel, Carolyn Gibb & Robert Engelman. (1999). policy interventions in a rapidly changing world. Forging the link: Emerging accounts of population and environment work in communities. Washington, Notes D.C.: Population Action International. World Resources Institute. (1997, August). Sound solutions: Policy research to confront the biodiversity chal- 1. Close to 50 of these projects have been docu- lenge. Draft paper distributed at the workshop on mented. See Riesenberger (2002, page 5); Engelman Policy Reform to Implement the Convention on (1998); Vogel & Engelman (1999); and United Nations Biological Diversity: Meeting the Challenge with Population Fund (2001, pages 50-51). Policy Research, Montreal, Canada.

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY

COMMENTARY • The Next Steps for Environment, Population, and Security

Networks of Threats and Vulnerability: Lessons From Environmental Security Research

ver the last 10 years, environmental on the perennial problem of war. If researchers security research has brought new reorient security studies to systematically inves- Oideas to the field of security studies; tigate these transnational dangers, policymakers broadened our understanding of global change, might be able to devise effective evidence-based conflict, and vulnerability; and explored the solutions to the growing number of threats that roles of conservation and sustainable develop- do not follow the traditional state-centered secu- ment in promoting peace, stability, and human rity model. And this emerging field offers new security. Today, another powerful new idea has lessons for environmental security research, revealing connections between processes of RICHARD emerged: national and international security global change and deepening understanding of MATTHEW agendas are focusing as much attention on “network-based threats”—terrorism, computer conflict and cooperation. and BRYAN What is a network-based threat? Take, for MCDONALD viruses, and epidemic diseases, for example—as example, climate change. People make decisions about their energy use based on their immediate social, economic, and ecological Richard Matthew is director of the surroundings. These decisions constitute an Center for Unconventional Security informal web—a dispersed, transnational net- Affairs (CUSA) and an associate profes- work1— of individual behaviors that ultimately sor at the University of California, Irvine. combine to produce climate change, which has Bryan McDonald is the assistant director become a human and national security prob- of CUSA, which considers network-based lem with uneven impacts across the world. This is demonstrated by the increasing fre- threats to both human and national quency and severity of natural disasters, such as security in five interactive areas: environ- the floods that swamped 60 percent of ment, biology, information technology, Bangladesh in summer 2004 (“Battle to get human security, and terrorism. Recent aid,” 2004; Logan, 2004). CUSA publications include Landmines Malevolent threat networks, such as global terrorism, share some structural characteristics and Human Security: International with accidental threat networks like climate Politics and War’s Hidden Legacy, by change: they are dispersed—therefore difficult Richard Matthew, Bryan McDonald, and to neutralize through negotiations or force— Ken Rutherford (SUNY Press, 2004) and and they can accommodate and be amplified by Reframing the Agenda: The Impact of diverse motivations. Although threat networks NGO and Middle Power Cooperation in like climate change and global terrorism could be extremely dangerous and costly, it is hard to International Security Policy by Stefan identify an effective mitigation policy, since no Brem, Richard Matthew, and Ken single incentive structure is likely to modify the 36 Rutherford (Praeger Press, 2003). behavior of all of a network’s nodes; the net-

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004

work’s effects vary across time and space; and decades, the international and transnational the capacity to promote change is distributed networks linking states have grown more unequally among states and non-state actors. numerous and more sophisticated, propelled by Environmental security (ES) scholarship rapid technological innovation and diffusion provides important theoretical and method- (Zacher, 1992). These networks have generated ological underpinnings for the embryonic field wealth, knowledge, power, and cooperation in examining these threat networks. ES literature ways that have improved the lives and enhanced introduced an interdisciplinary perspective into the security of millions of people. However, traditional security practice, promoted the they have also introduced threats and vulnera- incorporation of security issues into main- bilities, ranging from old-fashioned religious stream endeavors like business and engineering, extremism to modern computer viruses, by and explored the interactive dynamics of the empowering non-state actors through unprece- diverse human and natural networks that con- dented access to information, communication stitute the modern world. While the ES field systems, and transportation, resulting in a tech- does not offer a suite of all-purpose solutions to nologically accelerated political condition that transnational security challenges, it does pro- we describe as “hyper-medievalism.” vide useful analytical tools based on extensive Rather than aggregating political and eco- research and debate. In addition, bringing nomic power within a defined territory, a together these fields can also help correct flaws hyper-medieval world is highly decentralized. in ES research, such as lack of engagement with Multiple stakeholders—from warlords to busi- the broader security community. ness cartels—compete effectively with states, which may fail due to corruption or ineffective The New Security Landscape: law enforcement. Technology has reduced bar- Networks of Threat and riers to power accumulation, accelerating the Vulnerability start-up phase for new power-holders and injecting high levels of turbulence into the Most of the planet’s terrain is now divided global system (Rosenau, 1990). Speed, knowl- among 191 sovereign states,2 many of which edge, mobility, and reach are great assets for have achieved the security from internal con- legitimate businesses and scientific research flict and external military aggression envi- projects—but also for drug traffickers, timber sioned in Thomas Hobbes’ seminal 1651 mafias, human smugglers, terrorists, and iden- work, Leviathan.3 For 300 years following tity thieves. 1648’s Treaty of Westphalia, sovereign states Transnational networks are not easily dis- aspired to self-sufficiency and viewed other mantled or neutralized. Investigative reports states largely in terms of domination and bal- by PBS and ABC concluded that the war on ance. After World War II, however, these drugs has placed 1.5 million Americans in ideals were abandoned in favor of the United prison and cost hundreds of billions of tax dol- Nations system of formally sovereign states lars, and yet it has not made a dent in the pro- constrained by international law and mutual- duction, transportation, sale, or use of illegal ly beneficial trade relations.4 Michael Doyle drugs, which is valued at $300 billion to $400 (1983) and other scholars have argued persua- billion a year (Schaffer, n.d.; Frontline, 2000; sively that a “liberal zone of peace” has Stossel, 2002). As soon as one trafficker is emerged: liberal states are democratic, respect arrested, another steps in; when pressure is international law, and engage in trade. They applied to one country, production moves to fight non-democratic states but not each another; and vast sums of money breed cor- other, thus creating zones of peace. ruption in law enforcement at home and However, open democracy and trade have abroad. After 30 years of war, the enemy—the been a mixed blessing. Over the past several transnational network of drug traffickers—is 37

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY

larger, richer, and more powerful than ever Promoting interdisciplinary research before. Even perfectly respectable networks pose Contemporary security requires expertise security problems when they transmit the nega- beyond the traditional grasp of senior military tive effects of their legitimate activities across personnel and political scientists. Networks national borders. For example, currency traders often bring together entities that share a goal or in one country can trigger panic selling in oth- capability but otherwise differ in substantive ers, as demonstrated by Southeast Asia’s “finan- ways. Contemporary terrorist networks, for cial flu” in the 1990s. Today, epidemiologists example, are much more inclusive than the are concerned about diseases that could jump 20th century’s close-knit groups. Al Qaeda can from animals to people and move rapidly across accommodate anyone with a grievance against the planet to reach large populations in a matter the United States or its allies, or who sees par- of hours.5 The Internet, a valuable tool for indi- ticipation as a way to accumulate resources or viduals and groups worldwide, is also suscepti- advance a more local agenda. Osama bin Laden ble to viruses and can be used by criminals and may not be able to control all al Qaeda activi- terrorists to commit fraud, launder funds, and ties, but consequently, al Qaeda can survive share information. massive disruptions of its leadership, funding, and training grounds. Understanding the Lessons From Environmental threats posed by this type of dispersed, transna- Security Research tional terrorist network requires a range of diverse expertise: The process of understanding network-based security issues, and effectively addressing them, • Understanding motivations requires psy- is still in its infancy, but pioneering ES research chologists, theologians, sociologists, political has made significant contributions to this new scientists, and criminologists; field. The powerful criminal and terrorist net- • Understanding how capacity (e.g., recruits, works that challenge security share characteris- funds, weapons, information, and media tics with the benign transnational networks, attention) is amassed requires businesspeo- such as waterways and forests, that ES ple, scientists, and information technology researchers study. specialists, as well as social scientists, law Environmental security research brings enforcement personnel, and military experts; together experts whose work initially developed • Understanding the realm of opportunities along independent trajectories. Since the available for terrorists requires people famil- 1990s, social scientists, conservationists, and iar with the inner workings of the internet, defense personnel have collaborated to under- international business, and epidemiology; stand the security implications of resource and scarcity and abundance, environmental impacts • Attacking the root causes of terrorism and of military activities, conservation practices’ developing effective countermeasures effect on conflict, and new asymmetrical con- requires interdisciplinary research on a scale flicts at the human security level involving mili- unfamiliar to the security community. tary or paramilitary assets.6 Although unfin- ished, this work has generated practices and Moving beyond the traditional security insights—like promoting interdisciplinary community research and moving beyond the traditional security community—that can be applied to Contemporary security studies should be help understand and address other network- included in business, medical, engineering, based security problems. criminology, and computer science education 38

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programs, so that specialists in these areas can that may be expanding its transnational links examine the security implications of their prac- to left-wing groups in India, the Tamil Tigers tices. For example, every doctor should under- in Sri Lanka, and other extremist groups in stand how the country is likely to respond to a South Asia (South Asia Terrorism Portal, n.d.). lethal epidemic or chemical release, and engi- Understanding the Maoists requires under- neers should learn how to design buildings that standing the relationships among the world are less vulnerable to attack. Network-based economy, which influences the Nepalese gov- threat analysis could provide valuable input for ernment’s decisions, such as the lease to India; financial risk assessments and investment deci- environmental stressors, like the migration sions,7 and it could delineate the interdepend- from Kathmandu Valley and resource scarcity ence of internal and external national security in the Terai; and regional strategic considera- problems for law enforcement and intelligence tions, such as Nepal’s vulnerability vis-à-vis personnel. India and, to some extent, China. Only this approach, common to ES literature, can ade- Studying the dynamics of global net- quately reveal the relationships that create, sus- works: Examples tain, and strengthen a transnational threat network, and identify the pressure points for The interactive dynamics of networks—such as reducing the threat. In this case, improving the environment, the market, and global terror- settlers’ livelihoods and legal protections, National and inter- ism—need to be analyzed via both quantitative while preserving the conservation benefits national security and comparative case study methods, as in the through a sustainable use plan, might be a following examples drawn from ES research in low-cost way to undermine support for the agendas are focus- Nepal and Pakistan.8 Maoists and a far more productive approach ing as much atten- In 1976 the Government of Nepal estab- than the protected reserve. lished the Koshi Tappu Wildlife Reserve in the The situation in the Dir-Kohistan region of tion on “network- eastern part of the country. This protected wet- Pakistan’s North West Frontier Province pro- based threats”— land, which became a Ramsar Wetland of vides another example of how ES research can International Importance9 in 1987, lies along a be expanded to other transnational threat terrorism, computer 24-kilometer section of the Koshi River in an domains or used as a model for such analysis. viruses, and epi- area known as the Terai. A portion of the area Over 36 percent of Dir-Kohistan’s 4,645 square downstream from the reserve was leased to miles is coniferous or oak scrub forest. It is one demic diseases, for India so it could develop a dam. Settlers moved of the country’s least developed areas, with an example—as on the to this region to relieve pressure on the agrarian-subsistence economy, extremely low Kathmandu Valley and create a Nepalese pres- literacy rates (less than one percent for women), perennial problem ence along the border with India. The settlers, and little infrastructure. Traditionally, forest of war. who relied largely on fishing and gathering, resources, which provide fuel wood, building were displaced by the reserve and the lease. materials, and other commodities, were allocat- Now, they must eke out an existence in a ed by the nawabs, or leaders, through a system remote, resource-poor region, vulnerable to any of customary rights and principles that clearly sort of shortage. favored the Kohistani over the region’s other For the past decade, Nepal has suffered a two ethnic groups, the Pathan and Gujar. violent conflict between Maoist insurgents and Disputes were settled through ad hoc commu- the government. The Maoists are very active in nity councils known as the jirga. the eastern part of the country, where they In 1927 the British passed the Colonial have promised to return the reserve’s land to Forest Act, which largely excluded local com- the local residents. This rhetoric has mobilized munities from the forests while granting some sympathy and support for the rebels. Some concessions to the Kohistani; Pakistan retained analysts consider the Maoists a terrorist group this legislation after independence in 1947. As 39

COMMENTARY • THE NEXT STEPS FOR ENVIRONMENT, POPULATION, AND SECURITY

Pakistan sought to gain control over its north- Lessons for Environmental Security ern regions, the forests were largely ignored, but as their commercial value increased in the Since the mid-17th century, and especially since 1960s, they were leased to private contractors in World War II, the field of security studies has return for generous royalty payments. When been constructed to investigate and help resolve local people protested these terms, the govern- the problem of interstate war. Today, transna- ment agreed to raise the community’s share tional threat networks present as great a chal- from 12 percent to 60 percent of the royalties. lenge to national and human security as war, as Unfortunately, due to widespread official cor- ES researchers argued in the 1960s, 1970s, and ruption and the timber mafia’s strong-arm tac- 1980s.10 After a dramatic growth spurt in the tics, local communities received very little as the 1990s, ES has produced a body of theoretical forests were rapidly cleared in the 1970s. and methodological insights into the study of In recent years, Islamic law has gained other network threats, as discussed above.11 influence in Dir-Kohistan, especially among The study of network-based threats also the Pathan and Gujar communities, which offers lessons for environmental security. For have adopted it in areas where they constitute example, a full analysis of a threat system like a majority. Residents of Dir-Kohistan believe global terrorism will probably reveal connec- Islamic law is less biased than customary or tions between the network and global environ- statutory law and less prone to corruption. It mental processes, which may lead to ideas for is also more generous towards women, and viable interventions. In addition, the ES litera- thus appeals to the half of the population ture could close some of its internal gaps by denied legal standing for centuries. From the engaging the broader security community on perspective of many outsiders, the rise of concepts such as threat, vulnerability, conflict, Sharia law indicates a capitulation to Islamic and cooperation.12 ES researchers often resist extremism and creates a safe haven for Taliban responding to the extensive literature on con- and al Qaeda supporters. There is no doubt flict and cooperation, and reduce this complex that this conflict-prone region includes some world to a meta-variable (e.g., undifferentiated supporters of these transnational threat “social factors”) that affects the relationship groups, but it is equally true that a combina- between the environment and conflict. Thus, tion of environmental scarcity, failed legal sys- network-based threat analysis could provide ES tems, and government corruption created researchers with a way to deepen their under- conditions under which Islamic law became standing of security theories. the only support system for many local resi- Over the next 10 years, as the United States dents. To successfully address threat and secu- and many other countries struggle to come to rity issues in Dir-Kohistan, as much—if not terms with new threats and vulnerabilities, ES more—attention should be given to improv- research could support the development of an ing sustainable livelihoods, education, and law emerging field that may transform our under- enforcement, as to rounding up drug traffick- standing of human and national security, while ers, offering bounties, and imposing sanc- reaping its own beneficial insights into new net- tions. The security policymakers’ knowledge works of conflict and cooperation. of this region is not often based on the fine- grained field research undertaken by ES schol- Notes ars. Following this trajectory might lead to more effective and less costly policies that 1. There is no consensus on the definition of “net- undermine transnational terrorism by provid- work” or how to distinguish it (if necessary) from “system.” Here, we use the term network in its most ele- ing viable opportunities for sustainable mental sense: “an interconnected system of things or employment and justice. 40 people” (retrieved on August 17, 2004, from Word

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Net: http://www.cogsci.princeton.edu/cgi-bin/ References webwn?stage=1&word=network). 2. The United Nations (2004) has 191 members. “Battle to get aid to Bangladesh.” (2004, August 3). The United States recognizes 192 states: UN members CNN.com. Retrieved October 1, 2004, from plus Taiwan (U.S. Department of State, 2004). http://www.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/ 3. Partially inspired by England’s violent civil wars, asiapcf/08/03/bangladesh.floods.aid/index.html Leviathan envisioned the sovereign, territorially delim- Benini, Aldo A. & Lawrence H. Moulton. (2004). ited state as the optimal arrangement for maximizing “Civilian victims in an asymmetrical conflict: human security. Europe could escape the strangling Operation Enduring Freedom, Afghanistan.” grip of its royal families and the Catholic Church, Journal of Peace Research 41(4), 403-422. Hobbes argued, only by centralizing political power Brown, Lester. (1977). Redefining national security and demarcating the precise territorial limits of its (Worldwatch Paper 14). Washington, D.C.: jurisdiction. Worldwatch Institute. 4. As of April 2004, 147 states belong to the World Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2004, Trade Organization. January 13). Basic information about SARS. 5. This possibility was demonstrated by the rapid Retrieved August 8, 2004 from emergence and spread of Severe Acute Respiratory http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/sars/factsheet.htm Syndrome (SARS) in 2003 (Centers for Disease Connor, Steve. (2004, January 9). “US climate policy Control and Prevention, 2004). bigger threat to world than terrorism.” lndependent. 6. On resource scarcity and security, see Thomas Retrieved October 13, 2004, from Homer-Dixon (1999); on resource abundance and http://news.independent.co.uk/low_res/story.jsp?st security, see Gleditsch and de Soysa (1999); on the ory=479418&host=3&dir=70 environmental impacts of the military, see Hawley Doyle, Michael. (1983). “Kant, liberal legacies, and (1992); on the security implications of conservation foreign affairs.” Philosophy and Public Affairs 12, practices, see Matthew, Halle, and Switzer (2002); and 205-235, 323-353. on the human security implications of asymmetrical Frontline. (2000, October). Drug wars: Inside the $400 war, see Benini and Moulton (2004). billion global business. Retrieved August 16, 2004, 7. For example, businesses are wary of investing from http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/ heavily in climate change mitigation. Training designed frontline/shows/drugs/business/ to accurately measure the costs of such security risks Gleditsch, Nils Petter & Indra de Soysa. (1999). “To might overcome this reluctance; see “Most U.S. cultivate peace: Agriculture in a world of conflict.” Industry Giants Ignoring Global Warming” (2003). Environmental Change and Security Project Report 5, 8. These examples are based on a study of liveli- 15-25. hoods, resources rights, and conflict in Nepal, Hawley, T.M. (1992). Against the fires of hell: The envi- Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka, led by IUCN ronmental disaster of the Gulf War. New York: South Asia. Co-author Richard Matthew is a senior Harcourt Brace Jovanovich. consultant for this study. Information about the proj- Homer-Dixon, Thomas. (1999). Environment, scarcity, ect is available on the IUCN website and violence. Princeton: Princeton University Press. (http://www.iucn.org/places/asia/livelihood/ Logan, Tracy. (2004, 27 July). “Why Bangladesh floods index.html) and findings will be published in an edited are so bad.” BBC News World Edition. Retrieved volume in 2005. October 1, 2004, from http://news.bbc.co.uk/ 9. The Convention on Wetlands, signed in Ramsar, 2/hi/south_asia/3929217.stm Iran, in 1971, is an intergovernmental treaty that pro- Mathews, Jessica. (1989). “Redefining security.” motes international awareness and cooperation for the Foreign Affairs 68, 162-77. conservation and wise use of wetlands and their Matthew, Richard, Michael Brklacich, & Bryan resources; see http://www.ramsar.org/ for more infor- McDonald. (2004). “Analyzing environment, con- mation. flict, and cooperation.” In Understanding environ- 10. See, for example, Ophuls (1976), Brown ment, conflict, and cooperation (pages 5-15). (1977), Ullman (1983), World Commission on Nairobi, Kenya: United Nations Environment Environment and Development (1987), and Mathews Programme. (1989). Matthew, Richard, Mark Halle, & Jason Switzer 11. See, for example, Connor (2004) and (Eds.). (2002). Conserving the peace: Resources, Physicians for Social Responsibility (2004). livelihoods and security. Geneva: IISD. 12. For more discussion of the gaps in ES research, Matthew, Richard & George Shambaugh. (1998). see Matthew, Brklacich, and McDonald (2004). “Sex, drugs, and heavy metal: Transnational threats and national vulnerabilities.” Security Dialogue 29, 41

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163-175. groups: Communist Party of Nepal-Maoist. Retrieved “Most U.S. industry giants ignoring global warming.” October 13, 2004, from http://www.satp.org/ (2003, July 9). Environment News Service. Retrieved satporgtp/countries/nepal/terroristoutfits/ October 13, 2004, from index.html http://www.commondreams.org/headlines03/0709- Ullman, Richard. (1983). “Redefining security.” 10.htm International Security 8, 129-53. Ophuls, W. (1976). Ecology and the politics of scarcity. United Nations. (2004, August). Growth in United San Francisco: Freeman. Nations membership, 1945-2004. Retrieved Physicians for Social Responsibility. (2004, February October 1, 2004, from http://www.un.org/ 24). Pentagon on climate change: threat to national Overview/growth.htm#2000 security “should be considered immediately”’; New U.S. Department of State. (2004, February 27). report outlines effects of climate change on national, Independent states in the world. Retrieved October global security [Press release]. Retrieved October 13, 1, 2004, from http://www.state.gov/ 2004, from http://www.psr.org/documents/ s/inr/rls/4250.htm psr_doc_0/program_3/Pentagon_Climate_Change World Commission on Environment and _PR_02_24_2004.pdf Development. (1987). Our common future Oxford: Rosenau, James. (1990). Turbulence in world politics: A Oxford University Press. theory of change and continuity. Princeton, NJ: World Trade Organization. (2004). “Members and Princeton University Press. observers.” In Understanding the WTO: The organi- Schaffer, Clifford A. (n.d.) Basic facts about the war on zation. Retrieved October 1, 2004, from drugs. Retrieved August 16, 2004, from http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/ http://www.druglibrary.org/schaffer/library/ tif_e/org6_e.htm basicfax.htm Zacher, Mark. (1992). “The decaying pillars of the Stossel, John. (2002, July 30). “Just say no: Westphalian temple: Implications for international Government’s war on drugs fails.” Retrieved on order and governance.” In James Rosenau and August 16, 2004, from http://abcnews.go.com/ Ernst-Otto Cziempl (Eds.), Governance without gov- onair/2020/stossel_drugs_020730.html ernment: Order and change in world politics (pages South Asia Terrorism Portal. (n.d.) Nepal terrorist 58-101). Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

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SPECIAL REPORT

Population, Development, and Environment in Ethiopia

thiopia has been synonymous with dis- Sahlu Haile is the senior program advisor astrous famine since the 1980s. In the and Ethiopia country representative for E years since, drought and famine have the David and Lucile Packard continued to plague the country, and scholars Foundation. He has been active in repro- and practitioners have sought to analyze the causes and mitigate the consequences. Pop- ductive health throughout Africa for the ulation growth is one of the most critical drivers last 25 years, working for Family shaping the country’s future, as its social infra- Planning International Assistance, the structure and agricultural land are unable to Association for Voluntary Surgical support its growing numbers, and thus many Contraception (now known as Ethiopians remain trapped in a vicious cycle of EngenderHealth), John Snow poverty, disease, and hunger. The key to achieving sustainable growth lies in reducing the rate Incorporated, and UNFPA. of population growth, managing the environment, and building the platform for develop- According to the United Nations Conference on SAHLU HAILE ment. Educating and empowering young girls, Trade and Development (2002), “In a techno- changing traditional practices that encourage logically dynamic developing economy, where early marriage and early childbearing, and rapid processes of capital accumulation and increasing access to family planning are all steps structural change lead to rapid rates of employ- that could contribute to reducing the country’s ment generation…population growth need not rapid population growth. While Ethiopia’s gov- necessarily have detrimental environmental and ernment has developed a population policy to poverty implications” (page 95). Unfortunately, encourage such efforts, it has so far struggled to Ethiopia—the third most populated country in implement it due to inaction, disinterest, and Africa, with 72 million people—gains almost 2 ambivalence by senior officials. million people a year in a highly unfavorable economic and environmental context (UN Population, Development, and Population Division [UNPD], 2003). At Health1 UNPD’s current estimate of 2.46 percent, the country will reach 100 million in the next 15 The impact of population growth on develop- years.2 Even if drastic measures slow the rate of ment is not inherently negative or positive. growth, the population will continue to increase When accompanied by rapid economic and as the country’s 47 million youths under the age technological advances, population growth can of 24 raise their own families. actually contribute to national development Ethiopia’s economic and social indicators are (see Birdsall, Kelley, & Sinding, 2001). declining as the population grows. Its industrial 43

SPECIAL REPORT • POPULATION, DEVELOPMENT, AND ENVIRONMENT IN ETHIOPIA

Elevation and Population Density in Ethiopia only half of the working-age population is employed full time.3 Therefore, a small working population must provide for a large number of unemployed young people, creating a dispro- portionately high dependency level that inhibits investment in the future. The agricultural sector—the mainstay of the national economy—is less productive per capita today than it was 20 years ago (Ethiopian Economic Association, 2002). Arable land is overcrowded, overcultivated, and under-main- tained. Eighty percent of the population lives in the highlands, which cover only 45 percent of the country and suffer from widespread erosion, deforestation, and loss of nutrients, further reducing the per capita share of arable land (Teketay, Fetene, & Abate, 2003, page 9). Suffering from prolonged cultivation, lacking modern production techniques (e.g., fertiliz- ers), and overly dependent on rainfall (less than two percent is irrigated), over four percent of the country’s arable land has completely lost its ability to produce food (Teketay, Fetene, & Abate, 2003). In addition, the government’s questionable land tenure system, under which Elevation (meters a.s.l.) Population Density (persons per the government owns and frequently redistrib- sq km) Below sea level utes farmland, creates a climate of uncertainty 0-500 Less than 25 that discourages personal investment and thus 4 500-1000 25-50 reduces productivity. Ethiopia depends on foreign aid, which has 1000-2000 50-100 grown from less than 1 percent of GDP in 1970 Greater than 2000 100-200 to almost 15 percent in 2000, for its basic needs Greater than 200 (Ethiopian Economic Association, 2002). In Sources: 2001, 39 percent of its central government Population: Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia expenditures were funded by foreign aid (World University; International Food Policy Research Institute (IPFRI); the World Bank; and Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT); 2004. Global Rural-Urban Mapping Project Bank, 2003). The 2003 drought—the worst in (GRUMP): Urban/Rural Population grids. Palisades, NY: CIESIN, Columbia University. the country’s history—forced 13 million peo- Available at http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu/gpw/ ple, or almost a fifth of the population, to rely Elevation: ISciences (2003), SRTM30 Enhanced Global Map - Elevation/Slope/Aspect (release on food aid (International Monetary Fund, 1.0), Ann Arbor: ISciences, LLC 2004). While these disasters occurred every 10 and agricultural output is low, export income is to 15 years in the past, they are now almost per- minimal, and the country is heavily dependent manent features; as a consequence, Ethiopia has on foreign assistance. Per capita income is only become synonymous with famine and natural $100 and over 44 percent of the population catastrophe. lives below the poverty line. (Ethiopian Population growth and economic malaise Economic Association, 2002). The majority of combine to create a dangerous situation for the Ethiopia’s population is economically inactive; health of Ethiopia’s residents. Life expectancy is 44 over half are too young or too old to work, and 42 years at birth, infant mortality is 114 per

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1000 live births, and the mortality rate for chil- degradation, especially in the densely populated dren under age five is 171 per 1000 live births highlands. These sloping lands, occupied since (World Bank, 2004). Malnutrition is a chronic time immemorial, are severely deforested, over- problem: more than half of children under five cultivated, eroded, and nutrient-poor. Dr. Assefa years are stunted, while 47 percent are under- Hailemariam (2003), a demographer and devel- weight (UNICEF, 2004). According to the opment specialist, cites a 1978 study by K. J. World Food Program (2004), the average daily Virgo and R. N. Munro to illustrate the prob- calorie intake of the population (2,037 per day) lem’s roots: “Reconnaissance soil surveys covering lags behind the minimum recommended intake 6000 km2 in the Central Plateau region, at eleva- of 2,300 calories. tions of 2000-2800 meters above sea level, have Ethiopia’s health infrastructure is not keep- found that all the land that is physically cultivable ing pace with population growth. A recent is now cultivated. The only lands not cultivated report from the World Bank and Ethiopia’s are in depressions and on steep rocky slopes.” Ministry of Health (2004) affirms that at the As the population grows and people overcul- current pace, achieving the child survival objec- tivate scarce land, its nutrient value is reduced tive of the Millennium Development Goals will and erosion takes it toll. An expert panel be challenging. (Teketay, Fetene, & Abate, 2003) recently • Only about 40 percent of the population reported that erosion has seriously degraded lives within five kilometers (one hour’s walk) over 50 percent of Ethiopia’s arable land and of a health facility; projected a grim future: • The ratio of health professionals is extremely low: the three largest regions have only one While the soils in the Ethiopian highlands doctor per 55,000 people, one nurse per have a high inherent fertility, the continu- 10,000 people, and one midwife per ous removal of nutrients without replace- 100,000 people; and ment as well as the steep and dissected • Vector-borne diseases (usually relatively easy to terrain with extensive areas of slopes of control) affect more than 10 percent of the over 15 percent, coupled with the high population. intensity of rainfall, have led to accelerated soil erosion reaching up to 400 And the HIV/AIDS pandemic is now a tons/hectares/annum.….About 20,000- major public health problem: although 30,000 hectares of cropland in the high- Ethiopia represents 1 percent of the world’s lands are being abandoned annually since population, the estimated 1.5 million living cropping can no longer be supported by with the virus equals 4 percent of the world’s the soil. It is projected that land degrada- HIV/AIDS sufferers in 2003 (UNAIDS, tion at the present rates could destroy the 2004). HIV/AIDS is damaging the country’s farmlands of some 10 million highland socio-economic fiber: more than 90 percent of farmers by 2010. (page 12). those infected are between the ages of 15 and 49—the most productive segment of society— Population, deforestation, and erosion are and 720,000 children have been orphaned part of a vicious cycle: Hailemariam (2003) notes (UNAIDS, 2004).5 that less than three percent of the country is currently forested and points out, “As population Population, Development, and the pressure increases, particularly in the highlands, Environment farmers intensively exercise deforestation. This will leave farmlands and grazing lands exposed to Ethiopia’s unsustainable population growth con- erosion, followed by massive land degradation” tributes not only to its dire economic and social (page 9). At the current rate of deforestation of situation, but also to the country’s environmental over 150,000-200,000 hectares per year, it will 45

SPECIAL REPORT • POPULATION, DEVELOPMENT, AND ENVIRONMENT IN ETHIOPIA

be completely deforested in less than 20 years tlement was to reduce the population unless drastic measures are taken to reverse the pressure of the highlands and thereby to trend (Teketay, Fetene, & Abate, 2003, page 11). control natural resource degradation. In Why such a high rate? Inhabitants are totally the end, resettlement had no or limited dependent on forest wood for construction and impact on population pressure or land fuel, and overcultivate and overgraze the land. degradation. (pages 13-14). Deforestation is most pronounced in the highlands due to the highly concentrated population, The current resettlement effort may solve but even in the more favorable lowlands, clearing the immediate problem of drought and famine. forests and pastures for new migrants, coupled In the long run, however, it will only distribute with archaic farming techniques, is rapidly the problem geographically. While the govern- destroying the ecosystem. ment is trying to resettle about two million highlanders in the next three years, the region’s Internal Migration population will increase by approximately five million people over the same period due to nat- To cope with the problems of land degradation, ural population growth. Also, as the population the government has initiated a program to reset- of the more fertile lowlands of the south and tle people from the agriculturally poor highlands southwest grows, it will not be long before these to more fertile lowlands.6 While it is too early to areas also suffer a shortage of arable land and judge the current program, it is hoped that the increased social tensions. government will not repeat past mistakes. Previous resettlement programs were not volun- Urbanization tary. Neither were they based on serious economic, social, and environmental studies. Urbanization is not yet a major problem in According to social scientist Dessalegn Rahmato Ethiopia. However, the rate of population (2003), in response to the famines of the mid- growth in urban areas is much higher than in 1980s, the government resettled 600,000 people rural areas: while the national population growth from the northern highlands to the lowlands of rate is 2.46 percent, the urban centers grow at a western Ethiopia, with terrible results: rate of 4.1 percent as drought and famine in the rural areas force people to seek alternative liveli- In this same period, some 33,000 settlers hoods in the cities (UNPD, 2003). As often is lost their lives due to disease, hunger, and the case, urban expansion occurs at the expense exhaustion and thousands of families were of productive agricultural land, which increases broken up….The program involved con- the pressure on available agricultural land. The siderable environmental damage. Large cities of Debre Zeit and Nazret (45 and 100 kilo- areas were cleared of their vegetation to meters southeast of Addis Ababa) illustrate the build homesteads, to acquire farmland desolation created by urban expansion: on each and to construct access roads. side of the main highway, rows of ugly and disor- Resettlement in particular failed to recog- ganized buildings are rising up to replace hectare nize the rights of local people or the car- after hectare of fertile agricultural land. If the rying capacity of the areas of settlement. current pace of industrialization continues, the It created conflict between the host popu- environmental damage and impact on agricul- lation and settlers. It also failed to adapt tural production will be severe. farming practices to the agro-ecological conditions of the lowlands, and as a con- The Way Forward sequence, the environmental damage involved was quite considerable. Ethiopia’s developmental and environmental 46 Moreover, one of the objectives of reset- challenges are multifaceted and require multi-

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sectoral approaches, such as investing in health, education, gender issues, and employment. As demonstrated above, the root of Ethiopia’s challenges is its runaway population growth. Addressing the population issue will not solve all the problems, but without initiatives to con- Ethiopia’s leaders must make a strong commit- trol it, the country will not develop in a sustainable way. The current government has initiated ment to family planning and reproductive some bold measures that, if successful, would change the lives of the poor, such as an agricul- health at all levels. Without such commitments, tural policy, a poverty reduction strategy, and local programs may make progress, but will not the millennium development project. However, none of these policies focus on population, make a dent in the overall population situation. despite its causal role, and the government has failed to commit to and implement its 1993 population policy.7 There are many ways to reduce rapid popu- Association [NEWA] & Ethiopian Women lation growth, including educating young Lawyers Association [EWLA], 2003). By 2020, women, reducing harmful traditional practices the number of school-age children (7 to 12) will like early marriage and early childbearing, and grow to 22 million, more than double the num- expanding family planning services. Girls’ edu- ber in 1990, requiring a threefold investment in cation is probably the most effective tool for the education sector just to maintain the current reducing the rate of population growth and dismal level of quality (Ethiopian Economic altering the country’s developmental paradigm. Association, 2002). Educated women are economically active, Traditional practices encourage early mar- marry late, and make independent reproductive riage and immediate childbearing. The average health decisions. For example, contraception is age of girls at marriage is 17 years; over 40 per- used by less than 5 percent of illiterate women cent of girls are mothers by the time they reach in Ethiopia, while 16 percent of women with age 19 (NEWA & EWLA, 2003). Each some primary education and 45 percent of Ethiopian woman will bear an average of 5.9 women with secondary education use family children (2 of which are unwanted and/or planning methods (Central Statistical Authority unplanned)—and this number is significantly [CSA] and ORC Macro, 2001). higher in rural areas (CSA & ORC Macro, However, it is unlikely that Ethiopia will 2001). Delaying girls’ marriage by at least three achieve a critical mass of educated women years will significantly impact the rate of popu- before the population reaches an alarming level. lation growth (Zlidar et al., 2003). Many Lacking qualified teachers, adequate educational NGOs are conducting education campaigns materials, and infrastructure, education in most against harmful traditional practices.8 of the country is very poor. According to the Combined with rapid urban development, Ethiopian Economic Association (2002), only active community involvement, and mass two-thirds of children attend primary school; media attention, these campaigns have pro- the rate for girls is a little more than 50 percent, duced important gains in girls’ rights. For versus 72 percent for boys. High school atten- example, recent court cases have thwarted dance is limited to less than 10 percent (12 per- parental attempts to force early marriage or cent boys, 8.5 percent girls) while only 2 percent genital mutilation, and the government has go on to higher education. Less than 20 percent promulgated new laws that make some tradi- of women—compared to 40 percent of men— tional practices criminal offenses punishable by are literate (Network of Ethiopian Women’s imprisonment. 47

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Delaying marriage and childbearing also in less than five years.9 In Western Oromiya, the improves maternal and child health; early same approach enabled the Oromo childbearing, short birth intervals, and having Development Association to achieve 23 percent more than four children are major causes of prevalence. Similar results were obtained in maternal mortality and morbidity. High-risk South Wollo, Jimma, and parts of the southern births can be avoided by spacing births two or region. However, these successes are few and far three years apart, delaying first births until at between; in most of the country, services are least the age of 18, and reducing the total num- unavailable or inaccessible to the majority of ber of births per woman (Upadhyay & Robey, the population. 1999). Ethiopia’s maternal mortality rates are among the highest in the world: according to Government Policy the World Health Organization (2000), 850 mothers die per 100,000 live births, and one Ethiopia’s National Population Policy, devel- out of every 14 Ethiopian women is likely to oped in 1993, identifies major obstacles to the die from pregnancy-related complications; in country’s development effort and proposes Europe and the United States, it is only about measures to address these obstacles. The transi- one out of 5,000. Save the Children’s (2004) tional government, with support from the recent assessment of maternal health around United Nations Population Fund, developed it the world ranks Ethiopia among the worst prior to—and probably in preparation for—the countries in the world for mothers. However, 1994 International Conference on Population access to basic reproductive health services— and Development in Cairo. At the time, few especially family planning—could decrease countries in Africa had population policies. maternal mortality significantly. The National Population Policy seeks the The easiest and most cost-effective response “harmonization of the rate of population to population pressure is making family plan- growth and the capacity of the country for the ning services as widely available as possible. development and rational utilization of natu- Concerted efforts to provide contraceptives to ral resources to the end that the level of welfare those women who want and demand them will of the population is maximized over time” contribute significantly towards stabilizing the (section 4). Specifically, the policy seeks to population growth. In 2000, less than eight increase contraceptive usage from 4 percent in percent of reproductive-age women were using 1993 to 44 percent and to reduce fertility modern family planning methods (CSA & from 7.7 children per woman to 4 by 2015 ORC Macro, 2001). (Recent reports from the (section 4). Other objectives include reducing Ministry of Health put this figure a bit higher, maternal and infant morbidity and mortality, but this needs to be confirmed.) Had services increasing female participation in all levels of been available, more than 45 percent of women the educational system, ensuring spatially bal- would use them to space or limit their child anced distribution of the population, and bearing (CSA & ORC Macro, 2001). improving agricultural productivity. Some recent NGO programs show that sig- Had the policy been implemented as intend- nificant progress can be achieved when family ed, Ethiopia would have made significant planning services are offered in a culturally and progress in reducing the rate of its population socially appropriate manner. According to growth. But implementation has been a major internal Packard grantee reports, a community- problem. Senior government officials often take based reproductive health program in Amhara, actions that are contrary to the policy, or take no the country’s second-largest region, combined action at all. A recent evaluation of the health family planning with other development initia- development program identifies lack of commit- tives to achieve a contraceptive prevalence rate ment by government officials as the major 48 of 39 percent (up from a baseline of 5 percent) impediment to the population policy’s proper

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implementation (Federal Ministry of Health, its donors. Since this functional loss of sovereign- 2003).10 Ethiopia’s leaders often compare its ty arises from the asymmetry between popula- population problem to China’s or India’s, and tion growth and production capacity, population conclude that population growth will not nega- becomes a question of national security. tively impact the country’s development, as Finally, the most important reason for China and India are enjoying strong economic expanding family planning: deciding the num- growth. However, Ethiopia is not like either of ber and spacing of children is the basic right of these countries: its level of education is far less, every man and woman. It is ironic that those and it is not nearly as technologically advanced. who oppose family planning programs are soci- Unfortunately, nothing indicates that Ethiopia’s ety’s wealthy, who earn wages far higher than economy will reach that level before the popula- the national average, have access to adequate tion becomes unmanageable. health and education facilities, and choose to Ethiopia’s leaders must make a strong com- have two or three children. Shouldn’t the rest of mitment to family planning and reproductive the population have the same choice? health at all levels. Without such commitments, local programs may make progress, but Notes will not make a dent in the overall population situation. No population program has succeed- 1. This article is an expanded and updated version ed without strong and proactive support from of “Population and Development in Ethiopia” (Haile, national governments. 2003), which is available online at International and local level support can http://www.waltainfo.com/Profile/SpecialReports/ 2003/June/report1.htm. complement but not replace government com- 2. UNPD (2003) estimates the current population mitment, which is the driving force for popula- growth rate at 2.46 percent, while the 2000 tion or other development programs. Demographic and Health Survey (CSA & ORC Ethiopia’s leaders should support expanded Macro, 2001) estimates a 2.7 percent growth rate. family planning because, in addition to address- While Ethiopia’s population growth rate increased ing the population growth problem, it con- from 1.5 percent in the 1940s to 3.1 percent in the 1980s, the current growth rate has declined due to a tributes to national development. The dramatic decrease in fertility in urban centers (3.1 chil- Millennium Development Goals adopted by the dren per family), even as the rural population main- government identify several targets to be achieved tains a high fertility rate of 6.5 children per family by the year 2015, including reducing child mor- (CSA & ORC Macro, 2001). tality and combating HIV/AIDS (Ministry of 3. According to the Ministry of Youth, Sports, and Finance and Economic Development [Ethiopia] Culture, 38.2 percent of urban residents aged 15-29 and over a third of high school graduates are unem- & UN Country Team, 2004). However, the goals ployed; the rate is much higher for young women do not mention family planning or reproductive (Toga, 2003). For every unemployed man, two women health services, even though family planning serv- are looking for a job (NEWA & EWLA, 2003). ices will contribute greatly to the achievement of 4. For more information on Ethiopia’s land tenure every one of the development goals. system and agricultural development, see the research Family planning helps fight AIDS, for exam- report by Ethiopian Economic Association & Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute (2002). ple; both programs not only distribute condoms 5. A recent study by the Ethiopian Economic to their clients, but also share the same health Association (2002) found that in two textile factories professionals, health facilities, and educational outside Addis Ababa, 17 percent of the deaths from materials. Large families contribute to child mal- 1995 to 2000 were due to AIDS. During the period nutrition, while children that are born at reason- 1996-2000, 37.8 percent of deaths at two government departments were from AIDS, and in three communi- able intervals are usually better fed and in better ty-based organizations (edirs), 26.5 percent of the total health. In addition, as noted earlier, Ethiopia number of deaths were reportedly from AIDS. depends on outside assistance to feed its people, 6. In general, the lowlands are less populated and therefore can not claim independence from because they are drier, hotter, and infected with malar- 49

SPECIAL REPORT • POPULATION, DEVELOPMENT, AND ENVIRONMENT IN ETHIOPIA

ia and tse tse fly. environment and agriculture in Ethiopia. Paper pre- 7. For the text of Ethiopia’s National Population sented at the National Symposium on the Occasion Policy of April 1993, see http://cyber.law.harvard.edu/ of the 10th Anniversary of the Launching of the population/policies/ETHIOPIA.htm. National Population Policy of Ethiopia, Addis 8. See, for example, Pathfinder International’s Ababa, Ethiopia. Retrieved November 5, 2004, efforts to raise awareness about harmful traditional from http://www.waltainfo.com/Profile/ practices in Ethiopia’s House of Representatives at SpecialReports/2003/June/report8.pdf http://www.pathfind.org/site/PageServer?pagename= International Monetary Fund (IMF). (2004, April). Priorities_Advocacy_Field_Advocacy_Ethiopia_HTP. The Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia— 9. For more information on the Packard-funded Enhanced Initiative for Indebted Poor Countries— programs in Ethiopia, please contact the author at Completion point document (IMF Country Report [email protected]. No. 04/116). Washington, D.C.: IMF. Retrieved 10. The lack of commitment by government offi- November 15, 2004, from http://www.imf.org/ cials might be tied to women’s low level of participa- external/pubs/ft/scr/2004/cr04116.pdf tion in the public sector: only one of its 18 cabinet Ministry of Finance and Economic Development ministers is female, and only eight percent of the (MOFED) & UN Country Team. (2004, March). national parliamentarians are women (and even less at Millennium Development Goals report: Challenges the lower level). Women constitute about 25 percent of and prospects for Ethiopia. Addis Ababa: MOFED the public service workforce, and 75 percent of them and United Nations. Retrieved November 15, are support staff (NEWA & EWLA, 2003). 2004, from http://www.et.undp.org/ Documents/MDG-in-Ethiopia.PDF References National population policy of April 1993. (1993, April). Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Office of the Prime Birdsall, Nancy, Allen C. Kelley, & Steven W. Sinding Minister. Retrieved November 15, 2004, from (Eds.). (2001). Population matters: Demographic http://cyber.law.harvard.edu/population/policies/ change, economic growth, and poverty in the develop- ETHIOPIA.htm ing world. New York: Oxford University Press. Network of Ethiopian Women’s Association (NEWA) Central Statistical Authority & ORC Macro. (2001). & Ethiopian Women Lawyers Association Ethiopia demographic and health survey 2000. Addis (EWLA). (2003). Shadow report Ethiopia 2003: Ababa, Ethiopia, and Calverton, MD: Central Convention on the elimination of all forms of discrim- Statistical Authority and ORC Macro. ination against women (CEDAW). Addis Ababa, Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA). (2002). Ethiopia: NEWA and EWLA. Second annual report on the Ethiopian economy (Vol Rahmato, Ato Dessalegn. (2003, July). Access to II 2000/2001). Addis Ababa: EEA. resources and livelihood insecurity. Paper presented at EEA & Ethiopian Economic Policy Research Institute conference on “Breaking the Cycle of Recurrent (EEPRI). (2002, October). A research report on Famine in Ethiopia,”Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. land tenure and agricultural development in Ethiopia. Retrieved November 15, 2004, from Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: EEA and EEPRI. Retrieved http://www.crdaethiopia.org/Emergency/ executive summary from Oxfam’s website on Conference/Ato%20Dessalegn.pdf November 15, 2004: http://www.oxfam.org.uk/ Save the Children. (2004). State of the world’s mothers what_we_do/issues/livelihoods/landrights/ 2003. Washington, D.C.: Save the Children. downloads/ethltad.rtf Teketay, Demel, Masresha Fetene, & Asferachew Federal Ministry of Health. (2003, March). Ethiopia Abate. (2003, March). “The state of the environ- Health Sector Development Programme 1997/98- ment in Ethiopia: Past, present, and future 2001/02: Report on the final evaluation of HSDP I prospects.” In Gedion Asfaw (Ed.), Environment (Volume I). Addis Ababa, Ethiopia: Health and environmental change in Ethiopia (consultation Education Center. papers on environment No. 1). Addis Ababa: Haile, Sahlu. (2003, June). Population and development Forum for Social Studies. in Ethiopia. Paper presented at the National Toga, Teshome. (2003, April). Population, youth, and Symposium on the Occasion of the 10th unemployment in Ethiopia [speech]. National Anniversary of the Launching of the National Conference on Population and Development, Population Policy of Ethiopia, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Ethiopia. Retrieved November 5, 2004, from UNAIDS (2004). Epidemiological fact sheets on http://www.waltainfo.com/Profile/SpecialReports/ HIV/AIDS and sexually transmitted infections. 2003/June/report1.htm Geneva, Switzerland: World Health Organization. 50 Hailemariam, Assefa. (2003, June). Population growth, Retrieved November 5, 2004, from

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http://www.who.int/GlobalAtlas/PDFFactory/ pia&PTYPE=CP HIV/EFS_PDFs/EFS2004_ET.pdf World Bank & Ministry of Health Ethiopia (2004, UNICEF. (2004). “Statistics.” At a glance: Ethiopia. June). Ethiopia: A country status report on health and Retrieved November 5, 2004, from poverty (Draft Report No.28963-ET). World Bank. http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/ Retrieved November 15, 2004, from ethiopia_statistics.html http://www.crdaethiopia.org/PolicyDocuments/ United Nations Conference on Trade and CSR%20on%20Health%20and%20Poverty.pdf Development (UNCTAD). (2002). The least devel- World Food Program. (2004). World hunger–Ethiopia. oped countries report: Escaping the poverty trap. New Retrieved November 15, 2004, from York and Geneva: United Nations. http://www.wfp.org United Nations Population Division of the World Health Organization (WHO). (2000). Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Maternal mortality in 2000: Estimates developed by (2003). World population prospects: The 2002 revi- WHO, UNICEF and UNFPA, annex table G. sion and world urbanization prospects: The 2001 Geneva, Switzerland: Department of Reproductive revision. Retrieved November 15, 2004, from Health and Research (RHR), World Health http://esa.un.org/unpp Organization. Retrieved November 5, 2004, from Upadhyay, U.D. & B. Robey. (1999, July). Why family http://www.who.int/reproductive-health/ planning matters (Population Reports, Series J, No. publications/maternal_mortality_2000/tables.html 49). Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University School #Annex%20Table%20G of Public Health, Population Information Program. Zlidar, V.M., R. Gardner, S.O. Rutstein, L. Morris, H. World Bank. (2003). World development report 2004. Goldberg, & K. Johnson. (2003, Spring). New sur- Washington, D.C: The World Bank and Oxford vey findings: The reproductive revolution continues. University Press. (Population Reports, Series M, No. 17). Baltimore: World Bank. (2004, August). Ethiopia data profile. Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Retrieved on November 5, 2004, from http://dev- Health, the INFO Project. Retrieved November data.worldbank.org/external/CPProfile.asp?Selected 15, 2004, from http://www.infoforhealth.org/ Country=ETH&CCODE=ETH&CNAME=Ethio pr/m17/

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POLICY BRIEFS

The United Nations and Environmental Security: Recommendations for the Secretary-General’s High-Level Panel on Threats, Challenges, and Change

alling this post-Iraq moment “no less Environmental Change and Security Project decisive than 1945 itself,” in 2003 UN (ECSP) invited international experts to provide C Secretary-General Kofi Annan con- the panel with fresh intellectual insights into vened a High-Level Panel on Threats, environmental security. Leading thinkers in the Challenges, and Change to improve how the fields of water, climate change, and natural United Nations prevents and removes threats to resources prepared three short policy briefs peace. Eminent world citizens like Brent (included here with permission of the UN Scowcroft, Gro Harlem Brundtland, Sadako Foundation) that seek to answer three questions Ogata, and Nafis Sadik were asked to recom- posed by the panel: mend clear and practical measures for ensuring effective collective responses to the world’s secu- • What is the link between environment and rity problems, ranging from terrorism and security? weapons of mass destruction to “soft threats” • What can be done about it? like extreme poverty and disease. • What contributions can be made by collec- Environmental issues are firmly on the UN tive action mechanisms such as the United agenda, but they tend to remain discrete topics Nations? that lack sufficient coordination across agencies. The secretary-general has repeatedly main- A select group of scholars, policymakers, tained that environmental issues must be inte- and practitioners discussed these papers at the grated into the UN’s larger development and Woodrow Wilson Center on June 2, 2004. A security agenda, as outlined in his 2003 interim report summarizing the group’s recommenda- report on the prevention of armed conflict. In tions to the High-Level Panel can be down- preparation for its December 2004 report, the loaded from ECSP (http://www.wilson High-Level Panel sought recommendations center.org/ecsp). For more information on the that, if adopted, would inject environmental UN Foundation’s United Nations and Global issues into the security dialogue and transform Security Initiative and a complete listing of speech into results. input papers to the High-Level Panel, please As part of the UN Foundation’s United visit http://www.un-globalsecurity.org. 52 Nations and Global Security Initiative, the

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U.N. flag (Credit: Corbis)

References

Annan, Kofi. (2003, September 23). “The Secretary- General: Address to the General Assembly” [Transcript of speech]. United Nations. Retrieved November 2, 2004, from http://www.un.org/ webcast/ga/58/statements/sg2eng030923.htm United Nations. (2003, September 12). Interim report of the Secretary-General on the prevention of armed conflict (Report of the Secretary-General on the work of the Organization, A/58/365–S/2003/888). New York: United Nations. United Nations. (2003, November 4). Secretary- General names high-level panel to study global security threats, and recommends necessary changes [Press release]. Retrieved November 2, 2004, from http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2003/ sga857.doc.htm

POLICY BRIEF • THE UNITED NATIONS AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

POLICY BRIEF • The United Nations and Environmental Security

Linkages Between Environment, Population, and Development

What Is the Problem? ous roots, but common underlying causes typically include overconsumption in the world’s Environmental problems—the overuse of natu- richer nations and communities, demographic ral resources and the degradation of ecosys- pressures in poorer societies, and distributive tems—are increasingly understood to play an inequities in both the global North and South. important role in increasing human vulnerabil- Although environmental change threatens ity, undermining livelihoods and human well- all of humanity, people living in the developing being, creating instability, and potentially gen- world are often the most vulnerable to its erating or exacerbating violent conflict. The effects, as large portions of these populations depletion of water resources, overfishing, degra- are directly dependent on activities such as agri- dation of arable land, decimation of forests, and culture, forestry, and fishing for their well-being MICHAEL alteration of natural cycles and ecosystems are and survival. These activities depend on healthy RENNER and among the principal concerns. Climate change ecological systems, and there are few buffers to HILARY is likely to augment these challenges. Different protect the poor from the repercussions of envi- FRENCH environmental problems can be traced to vari- ronmental decline. In at least some cases, environmental change can be a factor in generating or exacerbating vio- Hilary French is the director of the lent conflicts. But scholarly research shows that Globalization and Governance Project at environmental change is never a single cause of the Worldwatch Institute, a Washington, conflict. Environmental issues are part of a com- D.C.-based nonprofit research organiza- plex mix of factors and pressures that vary in composition and dynamics from country to tion that focuses on international envi- country. Persistent poverty, growing income ronment and development issues. She is inequality, population growth, job shortages, also currently working as a consultant and disease burdens are key additional concerns. and special advisor to the United This potent combination is placing severe stress Nations Environment Programme. on the social fabric of many communities, leading to political strife in a number of countries, Michael Renner is a senior researcher at and even to devastating violence in some. the Worldwatch Institute. Hilary and Environmental challenges do not respect Michael are currently co-directing the human-drawn boundaries, and indeed some— Institute’s Global Security Project, includ- air pollution, climate change-related repercus- ing the Institute’s forthcoming State of sions, and water scarcity among them—are the World 2005 report. Both of them international or even global in nature. Many analysts have cited rising water demand and have contributed to numerous State of conflicting claims to this increasingly scarce the World reports and authored many resource as a possible cause of future interstate other publications related to global armed conflicts over shared rivers. But it is by 54 security and governance issues. no means a foregone conclusion that violence,

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rather than negotiated solutions (e.g., working been a factor in the sequence of wars that have out water-sharing agreements and joint water- afflicted Iraq and its neighbors since the late shed management), will result. On the whole, 1970s. Access to oil will likely continue to be a environmentally induced conflict is more likely contentious issue as industrialized and industri- to occur within, rather than between, countries. alizing nations grow increasingly dependent on Growing water scarcity, for instance, has caused imports. Oil, along with other commodities internal disputes and, in a few cases, even vio- such as timber, diamonds, and various metals lent confrontations in several countries, includ- and minerals, has fueled armed conflict in ing China, India, the Central Asian states, Colombia, Angola, Sierra Leone, Sudan, the Mexico, the United States, and Spain. Democratic Republic of the Congo, and There are a number of pathways through Burma, by providing governments, rebels, and which environmental degradation can trans- warlords with the funds necessary to buy arms late into greater vulnerability, instability, and and maintain fighting forces. conflict: Natural resources play a role in violence in Security Conflicts: Scarcity-related disputes other ways as well. Large-scale mining and log- may arise over access to renewable natural ging projects are often characterized by a highly resources such as water, arable land, forests, and unequal distribution of benefits and burdens. fisheries. This may be the result of tight supplies Typically, a small group of domestic elite and (depletion or degradation of natural resources), foreign investors capture the bulk of the rev- an unsustainable increase in demand owing to enues, whereas local communities (often population pressures or increased per capita indigenous groups) bear the potential burdens, consumption, distributive inequities, or a com- including expropriation of land, disruption of bination of these factors. Disputes may arise traditional ways of life, destruction of arable among different communities and regions, and land, forest clear cutting, and disruption of fish- among contending groups that depend directly, ing and hunting grounds. Typically, local com- though in different ways, on the health and munities are neither consulted during the plan- productivity of the natural resource base. ning of such projects nor compensated for their Farmers, nomadic pastoralists, ranchers, and losses, and their grievances often go unheard. resource extractors may find themselves in com- Frustration over this situation has led to a num- petition with one another, as happened in a ber of skirmishes in recent years, such as those number of recent cases, including conflicts in in Nigeria and Indonesia. Rwanda, Sudan, the Chiapas state of Mexico, Food Insecurity: A substantial portion of the and elsewhere. world’s farmland, estimated at 10 percent to 20 Different social groups and communities percent worldwide, is degraded to varying experience the effects of environmental degra- degrees. In developing countries, cropland dation unevenly. These divergences can rein- degradation has accelerated in the past 50 years force social and economic inequities or deepen and now affects about one-quarter of total arable ethnic fault lines, thereby exacerbating existing land. In many areas of the world, groundwater is polarization. It is not a given that the repercus- pumped at unsustainable rates and groundwater sions of environmental degradation will lead to quality is deteriorating. Portions of sub-Saharan armed conflict. But they do sharpen hardships Africa, Asia, and the Middle East are already suf- and burdens, heighten the desperation of those fering from water scarcity. Climate change is affected, and reinforce the perception that expected to intensify these problems by shifting many disputes are of a “zero-sum” nature. vegetation zones and increasing the frequency Resource Wealth Conflicts: At the other and intensity of droughts. end of the spectrum from environmental scarci- These pressures translate into reduced agri- ty, resource wealth is also a potential source of cultural productivity and greater food insecuri- conflict. Control over petroleum deposits has ty, and thus to increased malnutrition in the 55

POLICY BRIEF • THE UNITED NATIONS AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

teria that cause diarrheal diseases and are helping to extend the geographic reach of mosquitoes that transmit malaria and dengue fever. Environmental factors are not at work alone. The spread of pathogens is also facilitated by Although environmental change threatens all growing international travel and trade, migrant populations, and the social upheaval inherent of humanity, people living in the developing in refugee movements. And drug-resistant strains of certain diseases are developing in part world are often the most vulnerable to its because of the overuse of antibiotics in human effects, as large portions of these populations medicine and animal husbandry. In many developing countries, infectious diseases such as are directly dependent on activities such as malaria, tuberculosis, and HIV/AIDS, along agriculture, forestry, and fishing for their well- with respiratory diseases, are overburdening fragile health systems and weakening families being and survival. and communities. Disasters, Inhabitability, and “Environ- mental Refugees”: Population movements— poorest countries. These effects are particularly induced in part by environmental change—can pronounced where population growth is strong contribute to instability and conflict. The influx and land distribution is highly unequal. In of people into another region or state often such situations, small-scale and landless farm- imposes a considerable burden on the receiving ers are often compelled to cultivate steep area through increased pressures on land, water, slopes, areas cleared from rainforest, or other jobs, communal facilities, and social services. unsuitable patches of land. The soil productiv- This is especially true if the influx is sudden and ity of these areas tends to be exhausted relative- massive, and if political leaders or challengers are ly swiftly, forcing people to seek opportunity eager to capitalize on the situation by stirring up elsewhere, sometimes in distant cities or even xenophobic resentments. in other countries. The decay of ecosystems has set the stage for Disease: Illness and death from disease can more frequent and more devastating “unnatu- in some cases be sufficiently severe to under- ral” disasters: natural disturbances made worse mine economies and threaten social stability. by human actions. The poor, especially, have Environmental factors play an important role inadequate protection against extreme weather in the transmission of and human susceptibility events. The past 50 years have seen a dramatic to a range of lethal diseases. It is estimated that increase in major disasters. More than two bil- more than three million people currently die lion people worldwide were affected in the each year from water-borne diseases. Societies 1990s, and the economic toll during that across the planet are confronting a resurgence of decade was more than that of the previous four infectious diseases. Exposure to previously decades combined. The experiences of the last unknown diseases is growing as human few years suggests that the pace is likely to encroachment on tropical forests brings people accelerate, especially as climate change trans- closer to disease vectors. Logging, road build- lates into more intense storms, flooding, heat ing, dam construction, and climate change also waves, and droughts. enable known diseases to spread to previously The effects of disasters and environmental unaffected areas. The building of large-scale degradation may in some cases be sufficiently dams encourages the spread of schistosomiasis. extreme to undermine the habitability of a Warmer temperatures and increased precipita- given area, triggering an exodus of “environ- 56 tion related to climate change facilitate the bac- mental refugees.” Environmental calamities are

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already contributing to the displacement of tribution, and reforming agricultural practices large numbers of people, though reliable to lower water inputs. numerical estimates do not exist. In addition, Reduce population growth rates by pro- huge numbers of people are being uprooted by viding widespread access to family planning, large-scale infrastructure projects. During the encouraging girls’ education, and empower- 1990s alone, tens of millions of people world- ing women. Slowing population growth rates wide lost their homes to make way for dams, can help reduce local pressures on natural roads, logging operations, and other projects. resources, and thereby reduce scarcity-induced The World Commission on Dams estimates tensions. Countries that go through a demo- that 40 million to 80 million people have been graphic transition—from high birth and death displaced by dams. rates to lower birth and death rates—are marked by higher life expectancies and smaller family What Can Be Done? sizes. They have a lower likelihood of civil conflict and tend to fare better economically. This Countries, communities, private enterprises, transition can be encouraged by expanding girls’ and civil society actors can employ many strate- educational opportunities, improving maternal gies to address the complex linkages between and child health, and providing the resources environment, population, development, and necessary to allow women to choose the timing security. A multifaceted strategy is needed, and frequency of pregnancy. including the following elements: Safeguard ecosystems on which the poor Promote renewable energy and energy depend, such as forests, watersheds, arable efficiency. More aggressively promoting land, and fisheries. The poor are extremely Working together to renewable energy and energy efficiency could dependent on local resources for their well-being protect shared substantially reduce reliance on oil and other and survival, as they cannot afford to purchase exhaustible energy resources that contribute to adequate shelter, food, and fuel. Safeguarding resources could global climate change and fan geopolitical ten- ecosystems ensures that vital ecosystem services build a spirit of sions and civil wars. Renewable energy tech- such as air and water purification, pollination, nologies are developing rapidly, with global climate stabilization, and erosion control are cooperation rather wind power capacity tripling since 1998 and protected, thereby minimizing the potential for than competition climbing more than tenfold over the last conflict over resource scarcity. decade. And people living in developing coun- Develop certification systems for natural and conflict even tries could save up to 75 percent of their ener- resources that use consumer power to dis- among traditional gy by incorporating more energy efficient courage illegal trade and promote sustain- cooking and heating technologies. able harvesting. Recent years have brought a adversaries, possibly Combat land degradation and improve heightened sensibility on the part of individual advancing regional water productivity through sustainable agri- consumers to the ties that bind them, through cooperation. cultural practices and other techniques. A global product chains, to people and communi- range of sustainable agriculture practices can be ties in distant lands, along with the develop- employed to combat land degradation, includ- ment of new tools that aid them in acting on ing improving fertilization practices, planting this awareness, such as international labeling tree crops, and shifting to “no-till” farming and certification systems. One example is the practices. With agriculture using about 70 per- impact of the Forest Stewardship Council cent of all the water taken from rivers, lakes, (FSC), established in 1993 to set standards for and underground aquifers, less water-intensive sustainable forest production. A decade later, farming methods could greatly improve water the FSC had certified over 39 million hectares productivity. In general, water scarcity can be of commercial forest in 58 countries, more than reduced by increasing the efficiency of private 6 times as much area as in 1998, although this water use, decreasing leakage during water dis- still only amounts to 2 percent of the world’s 57

POLICY BRIEF • THE UNITED NATIONS AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

forests. A Marine Stewardship Council that cer- Accelerate efforts to achieve the tifies fish products was established a few years Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) later, and similar efforts are underway for other and the sustainable development targets con- resources and economic sectors, such as the tained in action plans from the World Kimberley Process certification program that Summit on Sustainable Development seeks to ensure that diamond revenues do not (WSSD) and other major UN conferences. finance armed conflicts. In the years ahead, Recent years have seen governments adopt a greater efforts will be required to integrate con- number of important goals and targets related flict prevention and sustainability goals in to poverty reduction, environmental sustain- Natural Resource Certification Initiatives. ability, population stabilization, and women’s empowerment that would help promote greater What Is the Appropriate Role for human and environmental security. The the UN and Other International MDGs, for instance, call for eliminating gender Organizations? disparity in primary and secondary education and halving by 2015 the share of the world’s The UN and other international institutions people living in extreme poverty and lacking have critical roles to play in spearheading these access to clean drinking water. The WSSD Plan strategies and initiatives at the international of Implementation reiterated the importance of level, including through the following activities: the MDGs and contributed a number of new Facilitate the negotiation and implemen- international targets, including halving the pro- tation of international environmental portion of people without access to basic sanita- treaties and promote regional environmental tion by 2015, restoring fisheries to their maxi- The decay of cooperation. Existing international environ- mum sustainable yields by 2015, and reducing mental treaties cover a broad range of issues rel- the loss of biological diversity by 2010. The UN ecosystems has set evant to environmental security, including cli- has an important role to play in working in the stage for more mate change, cooperative water management, concert with civil society and other actors to land degradation and desertification, and bio- galvanize action to achieve these goals. frequent and more logical diversity. But most environmental Fund environmental and social initiatives devastating treaties contain few specific targets and timeta- in the developing world. Translating existing bles, and provisions for monitoring and environmental treaties and sustainable develop- “unnatural” disas- enforcement are generally weak to nonexistent. ment action plans into greater on-the-ground ters: natural distur- And several important environmental treaties action will require funding for international have not yet been ratified by enough countries environmental institutions and initiatives such bances made to enter into legal force, including the 1997 as the Global Environment Facility (GEF) and worse by human Kyoto Protocol to the UN Convention on UNEP. The GEF commits an average of $300 Climate Change.1 The UN Environment million per year to grants for global environ- actions. Programme (UNEP) and other UN agencies mental protection initiatives in the developing can continue to assist countries with negotiat- world and UNEP has an annual budget of ing and implementing relevant international roughly $100 million. But raising even these agreements and actions plans, and encourage relatively small sums from donor governments them to move forward with ratification. The has proven to be a continuing challenge. Other UN can also promote greater regional environ- relevant international institutions and initia- mental cooperation to protect shared river tives have also suffered from scarce funding, basins and other ecosystems. Working together including efforts to provide universal access to to protect shared resources could build a spirit basic reproductive health services for all by of cooperation rather than competition and 2015, as called for at the 1994 International conflict even among traditional adversaries, Conference on Population and Development in 58 possibly advancing regional cooperation. Cairo. Meanwhile, global military expenditures

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currently add up to more than $800 billion voice in decision-making. Toward this end, annually. Principle 10 of the Rio Declaration on Build environmental initiatives into post- Environment and Development that emerged conflict reconstruction efforts. Environmental from the June 1992 Earth Summit stipulates damage incurred during armed conflicts slows that individuals are entitled to access informa- the delivery of humanitarian aid and can also tion and judicial proceedings, as well as to be hinder redevelopment efforts. UNEP has docu- involved in decision-making. Six years later, this mented the environmental damage in post-con- concept was enshrined in the legally binding flict Serbia and Montenegro, Afghanistan, and June 1998 Aarhus Convention on Access to Iraq. Using such information, environmental Information, Public Participation in Decision- protection should be integrated into the post- making, and Access to Justice; other regional conflict reconstruction process. Methods for initiatives on public participation are under way encouraging environmental protection include in Latin America and in East Africa. The UN conducting environmental impact assessments, could encourage countries to abide by Principle using environmentally friendly technologies, 10 and take steps to ensure that UN processes and maximizing information exchange between and institutions themselves operate in a trans- key stakeholders to avoid further risks to parent and participatory manner. human health and the environment. Promote open and transparent gover- Notes nance. Protecting environmental security 1. Editor’s note: Russian President Vladimir Putin requires open and transparent governance sys- signed the Kyoto Protocol on November 5, 2004, tems that discourage corruption and allow peo- clearing the way for the international treaty to take ple affected by environmental damage to have a effect in February 2005.

POLICY BRIEF • THE UNITED NATIONS AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

POLICY BRIEF • The United Nations and Environmental Security

Water, Conflict, and Cooperation

Fierce competition for fresh water may ing livelihoods, leading to destabilizing migra- well become a source of conflict and tion flows. Conflict prevention, conflict resolu- wars in the future. tion, and post-conflict reconstruction efforts Kofi Annan, March 2001 ignore water at their peril in key regions of the world (e.g., Southern and East Africa, including But the water problems of our world the Great Lakes region; the Middle East; and need not be only a cause of tension; Central, Southeast, and South Asia). they can also be a catalyst for coopera- Water has also proven to be a productive tion....If we work together, a secure and pathway for confidence building, cooperation, sustainable water future can be ours. and arguably, conflict prevention. Cooperative Kofi Annan, February 2002 incidents outnumbered conflicts by more than two to one from 1945-1999 (Wolf, Yoffe, & ater poses both a threat and an Giordano, 2003). The key variable is not opportunity for the UN system. absolute water scarcity, but the resilience of the W Increasing scarcity of clean fresh institutions that manage water and its associat- water impedes development, undercuts human ed tensions. In some cases, water provides one health, and plays critical roles along the conflict of the few paths for dialogue in otherwise heat- continuum between and within states. While ed bilateral conflicts. In politically unsettled rarely (if ever) starting a war between states, regions, water is often essential to regional ALEXANDER water allocation is often a key sticking point in development negotiations that serve as de facto CARIUS, ending conflict and undertaking national and conflict-prevention strategies. The UN system GEOFFREY regional reconstruction and development. and its partners have ripe opportunities to capi- D. DABELKO, Within states, water scarcity can assume an talize on water’s cooperation promise while and increasingly contentious and violent role when, undercutting its conflict potential. AARON T. for example, water-dependent sectors such as WOLF irrigated agriculture can no longer sustain farm- Water-Related Violence: What, Where, and How?

Alexander Carius is the director of Water-related violence often occurs on the local Adelphi Research in Berlin, Germany, a rather than international level, and the intensity public policy research institute on envi- of conflict is generally inversely related to geographic scale (Wolf, 1999). Even if internation- ronment, development, and foreign poli- al disputes over water-related issues do not typ- cy. Geoffrey D. Dabelko is the director of ically cause violent conflict, they have led to the Wilson Center’s Environmental interstate tensions and significantly hampered Change and Security Project. Aaron T. development, such as along the Nile, Mekong, Wolf is associate professor of geography Euphrates, Amu Darya, Syr Darya, and Ganges in the Department of Geosciences at rivers. And while conflicts often remain local, they can also impact stability at the national Oregon State University and the director and regional levels. of the Transboundary Freshwater The Basins at Risk project’s analytical tool 60 Dispute Database. helps identify areas where hydrological and

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political conditions suggest a higher likelihood ing. Migration—induced by lack of water, of conflict over water (Wolf et al., 2003). Based sudden droughts and floods, infrastructure on extensive analysis of the world’s 263 interna- construction (e.g., dams), pollution disas- tional river basins, the project hypothesizes that ters, or livelihood loss—can produce ten- “the likelihood of conflict rises as the rate of sions between local and incoming communi- change within the basin exceeds the institution- ties, especially when it increases pressure on al capacity to absorb that change.” Sudden phys- already scarce resources. And poverty due to ical changes or reduced institutional capacity are livelihood loss has been identified as a com- more conducive to disputes. Key examples mon denominator of the causes of conflict in include uncoordinated development of major most of the civil wars that emerged in Africa, projects that affect flow (e.g., dams) in the South Asia, and Latin America during the absence of a treaty or commission; basins that last decade (Ohlsson, 2000). suddenly become “internationalized,” as occurred in post-Soviet Central Asia; and gener- 3) Water management and conflict: In most al animosity among parties. This approach pro- cases, it is not the lack of water that leads to vides a set of indicators for monitoring potential conflict, but the inadequate way the resource hot spots, thus allowing us to get ahead of the is governed and managed. There are many “crisis curve” and promote institutional capacity reasons why water management fails, includ- in advance of intractable conflict. ing lack of adequate water institutions, inade- There are three major linkages between con- quate administrative capacity, lack of trans- flict and water: parency, ambiguous jurisdictions, overlapping functions, fragmented institutional struc- 1) Access to adequate water supplies: Conflict tures, and lack of necessary infrastructure. is most likely to occur over water when disputes involve access to water of adequate Water management is highly complex and quantity and quality. Even when water sup- extremely political. Balancing competing inter- plies are not severely limited, allocation of ests over water allocation and managing water water among different users and uses (urban scarcity require strong institutions. A reliable residents and agriculture, for example) can database, including meteorological, hydrologi- be highly contested. Degraded water quality, cal, and socio-economic data, is a fundamental which can pose serious threats to health and tool for deliberate and farsighted management aggravate scarcity, is also a source of poten- of water resources. Yet, reliable information is tially violent disputes. Finally, when water often difficult to obtain, especially in develop- supplies for broadly irrigated regions decline ing countries. Further, disparities among ripari- either in terms of quantity or quality, those ans’ capacity to generate, interpret, and legit- declines can spur migrations that could imize data can lead to mistrust and thus hinder politically destabilize the receiving cities or cooperative action. neighboring countries. Water management in many countries is also characterized by overlapping and competing 2) Water, livelihood loss, and civil conflict: responsibilities among government bodies. Water’s importance in sustaining human Disaggregated decision-making often produces livelihoods can indirectly link it to conflict. divergent management approaches that serve Water is a basic resource for agriculture, contradictory objectives and lead to competing which is traditionally the largest source of claims from different sectors. And such claims livelihoods. If this livelihood is no longer are even more likely to contribute to disputes in available, people are often forced to search countries where there is no formal system of for job opportunities in the cities or turn to water-use permits, or where enforcement and other, sometimes illicit, ways to make a liv- monitoring are inadequate. Controversy also 61

POLICY BRIEF • THE UNITED NATIONS AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

often arises when management decisions are expert-to-expert (Track II) linkages along the formulated without sufficient participation by Jordan or Indus rivers. local communities and water users, thus failing Finally, a water peacemaking strategy can to take into account local rights and practices. create shared regional identities and institution- Protests are especially likely when the public alize cooperation on a broader range of issues. suspects that water allocations are diverting Examples of this dynamic include the institu- public resources for private gain or when water tionalized environmental cooperation around use rights are assigned in a secretive and possi- the Baltic Sea during the Cold War (Helsinki bly corrupt manner, as demonstrated by the Commission) and the current cooperation in violent confrontations in 2000 following the post-apartheid Southern Africa through the privatization of the water utility in Southern African Development Community Cochabamba, Bolivia. (Conca & Dabelko, 2002).

Water as a Pathway to Peace The United Nations and Water, Conflict, and Cooperation Transboundary cooperation around water issues, which stems from a drive for sustain- Gaps able development in the face of shared stress, has a long and successful history. This devel- Water is a powerfully unifying resource, but opment imperative—not the fear of conflict because of its centrality to human life and our per se—motivates countries to pursue tough, ecosystem, its management is generally diffused protracted negotiations such as the Nile Basin among the world’s agencies and institutions. The Initiative (NBI). UN is no exception: water-related expertise is Aggressively pursuing a water peacemaking spread throughout the system, including such strategy can provide dividends beyond water for bodies as UN Development Programme stakeholders. It can build trust and serve as an (UNDP), UN Environment Programme avenue for dialogue when parties are stalemated (UNEP), United Nations Educational, on other issues. Transboundary water institu- Scientific, and Cultural Organization tions have proven resilient, even as conflict is (UNESCO), United Nations Children’s Fund waged over other issues (e.g., the “Picnic Table (UNICEF), Food and Agriculture Organization Talks” between Jordan and Israel, Mekong (FAO), and the UN Economic Commissions, Committee, and Indus River Commission). along with partners like the World Bank and the This strategy can also establish habits of cooper- Global Environment Facility.2 The fragmenta- ation among states, some with little experience, tion of this impressive expertise has historically such as the states in the Kura-Araks basin in the prevented the UN from taking the lead in water- Caucasus, or the Central Asian states of the for- related conflict mitigation. To redress this prob- mer Soviet Union. lem, the UN system must integrate policy and Water can also be a key point in negotiating coordinate its extensive but diffuse expertise on the end of a conflict, even if water did not pre- water, conflict, and cooperation across its bodies. cipitate it. While water did not cause the wars International waters: The UN should between India and Pakistan, for example, an develop an integrated, systematic program of updated agreement on the Indus River has preventive water diplomacy based on modified played a central role in recent bilateral negotia- versions of the World Bank and Global tions to end the conflict. In addition, peace- Environment Facility frameworks. This pro- making through water issues can forge people- gram would (1) bolster early warning for to-people links, as demonstrated by the Good regions with potential for water conflicts (con- Water Makes Good Neighbors programs of the ducted by, for example, UNEP’s Division of 62 NGO Friends of the Earth Middle East or Early Warning and Assessment); (2) develop a

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systematic program for enhancing institutional capacity between nations, including reconciling national legal frameworks (perhaps led by FAO’s Development Law Service); and (3) craft, by unifying existing expertise, a “one-stop shop” for developing programs to enhance cooperation (such as UNESCO’s recently launched Water Cooperation Facility). All these efforts should integrate traditional conflict-prevention bodies, such UNDP’s Bureau for Crisis Prevention and Recovery, in both the design and use of these products and capacities. The UN must address a number of gaps that impede the implementation of this systematic, integrated program. First, only a small number of experienced water-dispute facilitators are viewed as truly neutral. The World Bank has a few, but they are in short supply at Headwaters of the Nile River, Uganda (Credit: Inger Andersen) other UN bodies. The UN system should rebuild its ability by recruiting and training facilitators in hydrology, international law, flict, as can strengthening their capacity to gen- regional history, and conflict prevention (the erate and authorize relevant data (Turton, Universities Partnership for Transboundary 2003). A hydrological database that is accepted Waters offers a model for developing and exe- by all stakeholders is essential for any joint man- cuting this training). agement efforts, as it builds trust and enables Second, UN conveners and facilitators, and water-sharing parties to make decisions based on their bilateral funders, must be willing to sup- the same understanding of the situation. port long processes without requiring instant or While pursuing this integrated program, the easily measurable results. The World Bank’s 20- UN must avoid falling back on media-friendly year commitment to the NBI is an exemplary but historically inaccurate scare tactics like model, which the bank is reproducing in other warning of impending “water wars” between African basins. The UN should extend this states. This is not the appropriate frame for these model beyond Africa and encourage disparate issues because (1) most organized violence from UN bodies to cooperate as equal partners. water conflict occurs not between states, but at Third, to achieve sustainable implementation, the subnational and local levels or between sec- the UN must find ways to include all stake- tors; (2) the “water wars” angle discourages the holders throughout the process, in order to off- engagement of key developmental and environ- set the secrecy that traditionally surrounds mental partners in favor of security actors; (3) it high-level negotiations. Unlike the NBI, this does not easily lead to a program of action for should not wait until state-to-state agreements conflict prevention and human development; have been reached. and (4) we do not need to use violent conflict to Finally, the UN should seek to strengthen the prove that water is a matter of life and death. capacity of parties to negotiate contested water Indeed, by directly or indirectly contributing to issues. Disparities in capacity and knowledge two million to three million deaths annually, have often led to mistrust between riparian unsafe drinking water poses a primary challenge countries, hindering cooperative action. to human security, as recognized by both the Strengthening the negotiating skills of less pow- Millennium Development Goals and the erful riparians can therefore help prevent con- Johannesburg Plan of Implementation. 63

POLICY BRIEF • THE UNITED NATIONS AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

1,700 State -to -State Water In te ra c tio ns in Transboundary B asins, 1946-1999

State-to-State Water Interactions in Transboundary Basins, 1946-1999

International 157 Water Treaty

Support 1071

Neutral Act 96

Hostility 507

Formal War 0

Source: Adapted from Wolf, Yoffe, & Giordano (2003)

Intranational level: Many countries need tion, helps mitigate conflicts and prevent dis- stronger internal policies to regulate water use putes from emerging during decision-making. and to enable equal and sustainable management of their water resources. The UN should Options help strengthen the institutional and legal frameworks for managing water resources at the What form would a systematic, integrated pro- national level. To ensure that these national gram of preventive diplomacy and water take? frameworks are implemented, the local level— Since most initiatives dealing with water, con- at which water is actually used—requires more flict, and cooperation are substantially under- assistance (e.g., developing management insti- funded and rarely reach beyond the project tutions on the catchment level and institution- level, the challenge for the international com- alizing community-based cooperative manage- munity is to create an obvious earmark for ment mechanisms). international water conflict and cooperation Regardless of the level of analysis, building funds, as the Global Fund is for HIV/AIDS, capacity for integrated water management and tuberculosis, and malaria. Such a fund could conflict prevention is a critical role for the UN. utilize water to build confidence and prevent Developing the human, technical, and adminis- conflict, assess water facilitation skills to match trative capacity to generate and analyze data, to capacity and opportunities, and reduce the develop sustainable management plans, and to number of overlapping and duplicative bilateral implement these plans is necessary to enable approaches. water institutions to fulfill their management As part of its program, the UN should cre- tasks and to prevent water-related disputes over ate a forum to identify and articulate the needs the long term. Building capacity in conflict- of Southern stakeholders for transboundary management techniques, such as mediation and water management, dispute resolution, and 64 facilitation, as well as in stakeholder participa- conflict transformation. Such forums as the

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World Commission on Water, Peace, and Conflict Management and Mitigation in the Bureau Security or the Water Cooperation Facility for Democracy, Conflict, and Humanitarian Assistance have already been proposed. The UN should of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID); see Kramer (2004). For more also seek to integrate existing networks and information on USAID’s Office of Conflict platforms that address water and security link- Management and Mitigation, visit ages in the South. http://www.usaid.gov/our_work/ In addition, water venues such as the 13th cross-cutting_programs/conflict/. Commission on Sustainable Development in 2. UN programs on water include the following: 2005, UN-Water, and the World Water • The Global Environment Facility (a partnership between the World Bank, UNDP, and UNEP) has an Assessment Programme must move beyond extensive program on international waters; see technical management questions and situate http://www.gefweb.org/. water and development issues in a larger peace • UNDP, through its program in Sustainable Water and security context, integrating lessons from Management, developed an extensive toolkit for effi- ongoing efforts like UNESCO’s Potential cient water use and shepherded the Global Water Partnership; see http://www.undp.org/water/ Conflict to Cooperation Potential (PCCP) pro- resource.html for more information. Since 1999, it has gram and UNEP’s Post-Conflict Assessment worked with the World Bank in an International Unit.3 By collaborating with these water Waters Partnership to “seek complimentarity in sup- forums, UN bodies focused on conflict could port of management of transboundary fresh water support the environmental priorities outlined resources” (http://www.undp.org/seed/water/ in the Secretary-General’s 2003 interim report region/partner.htm). UNDP’s Transboundary River Basin Initiative (TRIB) aims to foster inter-riparian on prevention of armed conflict (United dialogue to strengthen emerging basin institutions, and Nations, 2003). is currently providing focused support in the Mekong, Niger, Rio Frio, and Senegal basins. Conclusion • UNESCO’s International Hydrologic Programme (http://www.unesco.org/water/ihp/index.shtml) is now By establishing a program of preventive diplo- beginning its seventh cycle. More recently, UNESCO coordinated the World Water Assessment Programme, macy focused on water, the UN could coordi- designed to assess the state of the world’s water nate its extensive but diffuse expertise. Such a resources (http://www.unesco.org/water/wwap). For program would assess basins at risk and bolster international waters, UNESCO launched its Potential the early-warning process for regions with con- Conflict to Cooperation Potential (PCCP) program, flict potential. The program would also designed specifically to collect, assess, and disseminate enhance institutional capacity between nations the world’s experience in sharing international waters (http://www.unesco.org/water/wwap/pccp/index.shtml). (by reconciling national legal frameworks over It is investigating the possibility of a Water water issues, for example) and craft a “one-stop Cooperation Facility to help stakeholders manage shop” with tools to develop programs that international water disputes. encourage transboundary cooperation. • UNEP’s Division of Early Warning and Through a Global Fund for Water—with spe- Assessment (http://www.unep.org/dewa) provides early warning of environmental change; its mandate is to cial emphasis on understanding the Southern “help increase the capacity of governments to use envi- perspective and integrating conflict prevention ronmental information for decision-making and action units—the UN could improve water manage- planning for sustainable human development.” ment and facilitation skills, reduce duplicate • The World Bank is the lead agency in water efforts, and use water to build confidence and resources development for poverty alleviation in the prevent conflict. developing world; see http://lnweb18.worldbank.org/ ESSD/ardext.nsf/18ByDocName/ WaterResourcesManagement for more information. Notes Through its regional desks and its International Waters Window, it has developed a comprehensive program 1. This background paper builds on a policy brief for the management of international basins, including on water and conflict commissioned by the Office of legal and political frameworks. 65

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• The FAO Development Law Service and various sgsm8139.doc.htm UN Economic Commissions—notably the Economic Conca, Ken & Geoffrey D. Dabelko (Eds.). (2002). Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean Environmental peacemaking. Washington, D.C. and (http://www.eclac.cl) and the Economic and Social Baltimore: The Woodrow Wilson Center Press and Commission for Asia and the Pacific Johns Hopkins University Press. (http://www.unescap.org)—have taken the lead in Kramer, Annika. (2004). Water and conflict (Policy building legal capacity for water-related issues, both briefing for USAID). Berlin, Bogor, Washington, within nations and internationally. In addition, the D.C.: Adelphi Research, Center for International International Court of Justice has decided on one case Forestry Research, and Woodrow Wilson regarding international waterways, and the Permanent International Center for Scholars. Court of Arbitration has recently broadened its expert- Ohlsson, Leif. (2000). Livelihood conflicts: Linking ise to include the arbitration of environmental disputes. poverty and environment as causes of conflict. 3. For a summary of PCCP’s actions and recom- Stockholm: Swedish International Development mendations to the Ministerial Conference of the Third Agency, Department of Natural Resources and the World Water Forum in May 2003, see PCCP’s From Environment. Potential Conflict to Co-operation Potential: Water for Turton, Anthony R. (2003). “A Southern African per- Peace brochure at http://www.unesco.org/water/wwap/ spective on transboundary water resources manage- pccp/pdf/brochure_2.pdf ment: Challenging conventional wisdom.” Environmental Change and Security Project Report 9, References 75-87. United Nations. (2003, September 12). Interim report Annan, Kofi. (2001, March 1). “United Nations of the Secretary-General on the prevention of armed Secretary General Kofi Annan addresses the 97th conflict (Report of the Secretary-General on the Annual Meeting of the Association of American work of the Organization, A/58/365–S/2003/888). Geographers” [Transcript of speech]. Association of New York: United Nations. American Geographers. Retrieved November 2, Wolf, Aaron T. (1999, June). Water and human security 2004, from http://www.aag.org/News/kofi.html (AVISO 3). Victoria, Canada: The Global Annan, Kofi. (2002, February 26). World’s water prob- Environmental Change and Human Security lems can be ‘catalyst for cooperation’ says Secretary- Project. General in message on World Water Day [Press Wolf, Aaron T., Shira B. Yoffe, & Marc Giordano. release]. Retrieved November 4, 2004, from (2003). “International waters: Identifying basins at http://www.un.org/News/Press/docs/2002/ risk.” Water Policy 5, 29-60.

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POLICY BRIEF • The United Nations and Environmental Security

The Security Implications of Climate Change for the UN System

his article explores the security impli- likely to happen gradually, but scientists are cations of climate change, including a increasingly concerned about the possibility of T summary of the adverse impacts of cli- abrupt and catastrophic climate change, such as mate change, an analysis of their security impli- a sudden shift in the Gulf Stream that would cations, and policy recommendations for leave Western Europe without the warm waters strengthening the United Nations’ capacity to that keep its climate hospitable. The risk of respond to climate-related security threats. abrupt climate change was serious enough to induce the U.S. Department of Defense to Adverse Impacts of Climate commission a 2003 report on the potential con- Change sequences for U.S. and international security (Schwartz & Randall, 2003; Woods Hole While significant uncertainties remain regard- Oceanographic Institution, n.d.). ing the extent and speed of climate change, the overwhelming global scientific consensus is that Socio-economic effects the Earth’s atmosphere is warming rapidly, perhaps at an unprecedented rate, and that much Not all societal effects of climate change will of this warming is due to human activity. The be negative, but a number of adverse socio- UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate economic impacts are anticipated. These Change (IPCC), the multilateral body charged effects include: (1) shortfalls in water for with assessing the implications of climate drinking and irrigation, with concomitant change, predicts that global warming will trig- risks of thirst and famine; (2) changes and ger enormous physical and social changes. The possible declines in agricultural productivity NIGEL panel identified the following physical and stemming from altered temperature, rainfall, PURVIS and socio-economic effects. or pest patterns; (3) increased rates and geo- JOSHUA graphic scope of malaria and other diseases; BUSBY Physical effects

The likely physical effects of climate change Nigel Purvis is an environment and include: (1) higher average surface and ocean development scholar at The Brookings temperatures; (2) more rainfall globally from Institution and a former U.S. deputy increased evaporation; (3) more variability in rainfall and temperature, with more frequent assistant secretary of state for oceans, and severe floods and droughts; (4) rising sea international environmental, and scientif- levels from warming water, expanded further by ic affairs. Joshua Busby is currently a run-off from melting continental ice fields; (5) postdoctoral research fellow at Harvard increased frequency and intensity of extreme University’s Belfer Center for Science and weather events such as hurricanes and torna- does; and (6) extended ranges and seasons for International Affairs; in 2003-2004, he mosquitoes and other tropical disease carriers was a research fellow at The Brookings (IPCC, 2001a, 2001b). These changes are most Institution. 67

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outbreak of violence will unlikely be as strong as when natural resources can be exploited for quick financial reward. And because climate change happens gradually, global warming is unlikely to be the primary cause of any particular armed conflict, nor will its contribution to conflict be particularly visible. Nevertheless, regional climate changes, as with other causes of environmental degradation, could make armed conflict more likely. Natural Disasters and Humanitarian Crises: As explained above, a warmer world will generate more natural disasters and therefore more humanitarian crises. Indeed, natural dis- Credit: ©www.hawxhurst.com asters are already a major security threat: between 1990 and 1999, an estimated 188 mil- (4) associated shifts in economic output and lion people per year were affected by natural trade patterns; (5) changes and possibly large disasters, 6 times more than the 31 million shifts in human migration patterns; and (6) annually affected by armed conflict.1 Many larger economic and human losses attributable people affected by natural disasters become to extreme weather events, such as hurricanes. refugees or internally displaced persons (IDPs). Both refugees and IDPs are vulnerable not only Security Implications to the physical and socio-economic effects of disease, malnutrition, and loss of income, but The security implications of these physical and they can also become personally insecure and socio-economic changes are significant. We subject to crime, violence, and broader milita- must first consider the nature of the threats and rized conflict. Natural disasters become wider then consider where those threats are most like- security challenges when a country lacks the ly to occur. capability or willingness to help affected populations, undermining the government’s legiti- What kinds of threats? macy and increasing popular grievances. Destabilizing Forces: Conditions of Violence and Armed Conflict: Climate change drought, disease, and economic stagnation may will alter the distribution and quality of natural reach critical levels or tipping points beyond resources such as fresh water, arable land, which state failure becomes more likely. The coastal territory, and marine resources. Some global HIV/AIDS pandemic, for example, has researchers have speculated that these changes renewed international concern that widespread could cause or prolong armed conflict, death from infectious diseases could destabilize although these arguments are often overstated. vulnerable nations. In countries where one in Indeed, the general link between the environ- four people is infected with HIV, failure to pro- ment and armed conflict is well-established: vide treatment could easily destroy the ability of competition for natural resources (e.g., dia- government institutions to provide effective monds, timber, oil, water, and even narcotics) security, education, and health care. The spread has motivated violence in such disparate places of disease from climate change could have a as Kuwait, Colombia, and Afghanistan. Natural similar effect, although perhaps at a slower rate. resources have also helped finance insurgencies A recent study from the World Health in Angola, Sierra Leone, and elsewhere. The Organization (WHO) and the London School 68 connection between climate change and the of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine estimates

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there may already be upwards of 160,000 failing to protect populations at risk of drought, deaths annually from ancillary effects of global floods, and other weather-related phenomena. warming such as malaria and malnutrition. The While modern India has never suffered a study’s authors estimate those numbers could famine, tens of millions died in China under nearly double by 2020.2 Mao. North Korea is able to produce nuclear weapons but remains unable to meet its people’s Which states are most vulnerable? basic nutritional needs. Populations in undemocratic states will therefore be particularly vulner- Security risks related to climate change will not able to the more numerous and more severe be evenly distributed and will affect some kinds humanitarian crises induced by climate change. of governments more than others. While local and regional consequences of climate change Recommendations for the UN remain very difficult to predict, three types of System nations seem particularly vulnerable to the security risks of climate change: least-developed The United Nations’ strategy for addressing cli- nations, weak states, and undemocratic states. mate change is to facilitate agreements among Least-Developed Nations: Poor developing nations to: (a) mitigate those nations’ green- countries are the perhaps the most likely to suf- house gas emissions, thereby stabilizing atmos- fer the effects of climate change. These states pheric concentrations of these gases at a safe Natural disasters lack the economic, governance, or technical level; and (b) help vulnerable nations adapt to are already a major capabilities to adapt; for example, they lack the the adverse consequences of global warming. capacity to prevent or react to humanitarian While these goals are the right ones, the UN security threat: disasters such as widespread flooding. Tropical system is not acting with sufficient ambition or between 1990 and developing nations face the most severe conse- effectiveness to deal with the security risks quences of climate change, including extreme posed by climate change. Several new 1999, an estimated weather events, drought, and disease. approaches are discussed below. 188 million people Weak States: Failed and failing states— those with weak government institutions, poor Emissions mitigation per year were border control, repressed populations, or mar- affected by natural ginal economies—stand a higher risk of being Global warming will continue until concentra- destabilized by climate change. Weak states tions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere sta- disasters, 6 times have almost no capacity to respond to climate bilize, which will only occur after net global more than the 31 change or prevent it from triggering a large- annual emissions of these gases decline to zero. scale humanitarian disaster. Drought, crop fail- Given that global emissions are still rising rapid- million annually ure, and subsequent state failure led to tens of ly in the majority of nations, a major focus of affected by armed thousands of deaths in Somalia in the 1990s. the UN’s climate-change security strategy must Vulnerability to drought in the Darfur region of be to facilitate emissions abatement in both conflict. Sudan is now exacerbated by the country’s developed and developing nations. Global ongoing internal conflict. Whether these efforts to arrest climate change have been car- droughts are attributable to climate change is ried out largely in the context of the 1992 UN impossible to say, but the episodes are indicative Framework Convention on Climate Change of what one would expect with global warming. and its 1997 Kyoto Protocol. To date, those Undemocratic States: Twenty years ago, efforts have produced very modest results. economist Amartya Sen noted that democracies, Developed nations largely ignored the political in which leaders have to be responsive to people commitment they made under the convention who can vote them out of power, do not pro- to return their emissions to 1990 levels by duce famines. In contrast, the 20th century is 2000. Even if the Kyoto treaty goes into force, replete with examples of undemocratic regimes it will cover only 25 percent of global emissions 69

POLICY BRIEF • THE UNITED NATIONS AND ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY

more formal institutional mechanism would give the issue consistent attention. One option would be for the secretary-general to advocate the creation of a UN High Commissioner for the Environment. The high commissioner’s mandate The emerging early warning systems in the dis- would be to raise global awareness about environmental degradation, including climate aster reduction community must take political change, and to shine a spotlight on best and worst environmental practices. Climate would indicators of vulnerability, such as the repres- be only part of the agenda, as this official should sive nature of political regimes and other gov- also have a role in building political will to meet other international environmental goals, such as ernance factors, more fully into account. providing safe drinking water and sanitation for all. Locating the office in Geneva would help integrate environmental concerns and climate and not those of the United States and China, change into the UN system in a way that the UN the world’s two largest national emitters.3 By Environment Program in Nairobi has been 2012, Kyoto will have reduced emissions in unable to accomplish. The position would be a participating industrialized countries by only compromise between nations that have advocat- less than 3 percent below 1990 levels. Unless ed the creation of a World Environment major new efforts are made to mitigate climate Organization, such as France and Germany, and change, global warming will overwhelm most those that have opposed efforts to strengthen governments’ adaptive efforts. global environmental governance. The climate architecture associated with the Kyoto Protocol has become increasingly divi- Adaptation sive, not only among advanced industrialized countries, but also within the North-South dia- Concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse logue. Since the 1992 Earth Summit, the envi- gases are higher than they have been for tens of ronment has also lost ground politically, sub- thousands of years—and these concentrations merged under the broader sustainable develop- will climb for many decades, even if the mitiga- ment agenda. To speed mitigation efforts, the tion agenda succeeds. A two-part strategy is secretary-general must raise the visibility of cli- needed to deal with the inevitable adverse mate change and play a more active role in effects of climate change. First, the UN should overcoming obstacles to emissions mitigation. strengthen those programs that handle disaster One complication is that while developed and humanitarian crises and that are already nations should take the lead in reducing emis- beginning to take climate change into account. sions, emissions abatement in developing Second, the UN should create a new effort nations could be more cost effective. Until the focused on predicting, preventing, and han- international community develops the political dling climate change-related disasters in weak will necessary for public and private financing states and those with repressive governments. of emission reductions, climate change is likely to continue indefinitely. 1. Strengthening Ongoing Disaster Work Raising the profile of climate change is easier said than done, particularly since imminent Shift priority from relief to prevention: security challenges, such as Iraq, tend to crowd Humanitarian organizations have become out long-term security threats. While the secre- increasingly adept at emergency response to tary-general should integrate climate change emerging catastrophes. However, very little 70 more fully into his own personal diplomacy, a money is spent on disaster risk reduction. Even

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among countries with responsive decision-mak- address disasters, these systems still would not ers, there is too little awareness of the priority of be entirely adequate to address the most dan- disaster-risk reduction. One strategy that has gerous security challenges, including massive been proposed is to dedicate at least 5 percent to migration, armed conflict, and state collapse, 10 percent of humanitarian relief monies to disas- which are most likely to occur in undemocratic ter-risk reduction. While the precise target should and weak states. A new multipart strategy is be resolved by member states, the secretary-gener- needed to address these challenges. al should take the lead in proposing the establish- Improve early warning systems and vulnera- ment of such a principle. The UN’s Inter-Agency bility indices: The UN system needs better tools Task Force on Disaster Reduction (IATF/DR) for predicting which states and regions are most and the Inter-Agency Secretariat of the vulnerable to severe security threats related to cli- International Strategy for Disaster Reduction mate change. There is already a proliferation of (UN/ISDR) are existing frameworks in which early warning systems in the international com- early-warning systems and vulnerability assess- munity for dealing with different challenges. In ments are already embedded to some degree.4 In the humanitarian realm, there are numerous sys- January 2005, the Second World Conference on tems; for instance, the UN’s Humanitarian Early Disaster Reduction will take place in Kobe, Warning System is an internal UN tool to identi- Japan. The parties will review the 1994 fy countries in pre-crisis situations. Reliefweb, Yokohama Strategy on natural disasters and also overseen by the UN’s Office for the establish the disaster-reduction action plan for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), next decade. These processes provide opportuni- is an external system that focuses on natural disas- ties to focus more prominently on prevention. ters and complex emergencies. At the regional Integrate disaster and climate planning: and country levels, OCHA has an Integrated The UN system needs to integrate concerns Regional Information Network, primarily for about the consequences of climate change more sub-Saharan Africa. In agriculture, FAO has the fully into its security, natural disaster preven- Global Information and Early Warning System tion, and humanitarian response activities; for on Food and Agriculture, and USAID has its example, the UN should make climate change a Famine Early Warning System. In terms of more explicit focus of UN/ISDR. In 2003, weather-related warning systems, UN UN/ISDR launched a project to do just this, Development Programme and UN Environment and its progress seems promising.5 IATF/DR Programme/GRID have developed a Disaster created a new working group in May 2004 on Risk Index, and the World Bank and Columbia climate adaptation and disaster reduction, and University have nearly completed a Global the UN/ISDR Secretariat is coordinating an Disaster Risk Hotspots project. expert dialogue among disaster relief, climate, Much of this work is positive. But the and development communities (UN/ISDR, emerging early warning systems in the disaster 2004). As adaptation gains prominence in the reduction community must take political indi- global warming community, however, climate cators of vulnerability, such as the repressive change bodies are in danger of reinventing the nature of political regimes and other gover- wheel on disaster prevention and response. The nance factors, more fully into account (Brauch, existing network of disaster experts should be 2003). In addition, coordination among the more fully integrated into the IPCC reporting vulnerability indices mentioned above, along process to avoid this potential problem. with other early warning systems like the European Union’s Global Monitoring for 2. New Strategy Needed for Vulnerable States Environment and Security initiative, is necessary to standardize risk assessments in a format While stronger UN early warning and disaster policymakers can use (European Council & preparedness systems would help predict and European Space Agency, 2004). The climate- 71

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security nexus, moreover, should be analyzed risks to international peace and security. systematically by the IPCC. As a first step, the Managing these changes well will require well- IPCC should convene a conference that conceived actions within the UN system. While engages international security, climate, and dis- climate change could contribute to armed con- aster experts (German Federal Ministry for the flict and violence, that is not the primary risk. Environment, 2002). Preventing large-scale humanitarian catastro- Preventative diplomacy: Once the UN has phes from climate-related droughts, floods, identified high-risk countries, it should develop crop failures, mass migrations, and exceptional- contingency plans for the consequences of cli- ly severe weather remains the most significant mate change. The extent to which the UN is policy challenge. already involved in systematic forward planning The UN needs to improve substantially the is not clear. As a first step, any contingency effectiveness of international efforts to mitigate plans ought to be tailored to the individual cir- emissions. Not only should the secretary-gener- cumstances of those countries and include plans al incorporate climate change into his own per- for providing shelter, nutrition, medicines, and sonal diplomacy, he should consider advocating policing. At the same time, local UN staff (or, if the creation of a new senior-level office (the necessary, special envoys) ought to open dis- High Commissioner for the Environment) that creet channels of communication with deci- would be charged with building political sup- Weak states have sion-makers in high-risk countries to discuss port for addressing all global environmental almost no capacity and encourage risk-reduction strategies. UN challenges, including climate change, in ways officials should also share information concern- that promote sustainable development. to respond to cli- ing disaster prevention with relief agencies such Because significant climate change is already mate change or as the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, occurring and will continue for decades, the UN the International Red Cross, and the broader must place equal emphasis on helping nations prevent it from NGO relief community. adapt to global warming. In this regard, the UN triggering a large- Conflict and post-conflict engagement— system needs to work even harder to prevent and Legitimacy and force: Sometimes, however, respond to humanitarian crises, which will scale humanitarian diplomatic preparedness will not head off increasingly be fueled by climate factors. Because disaster. humanitarian catastrophe, and the world will disasters in which climate change plays a role will be faced with the prospect of using force to pre- be difficult to predict, and because little will dis- vent mass starvation or destabilizing migra- tinguish these disasters from traditional humani- tions. The security risks of climate change, tarian crises, much of what the United Nations therefore, need to be a factor in debates about a must do should not be specific to global warm- standing multilateral peacemaking or humani- ing. Many of the UN’s existing disaster efforts are tarian intervention force. The international on the right track, but these efforts need to be community needs to revisit norms and institu- strengthened by shifting emphasis from disaster tional arrangements concerning the use of force response to prevention and by integrating aware- in response to disasters just as it is doing with ness of the consequences of climate change into respect to terrorism and weapons of mass their work programs. destruction. The UN should be facilitating this Yet the UN system must also launch a new dialogue while also including potential climate- effort aimed at dealing more directly with the induced catastrophes in its programs for post- security risks associated with humanitarian dis- conflict reconstruction. asters in weak and totalitarian states, where climate change is most likely to trigger regional Conclusion insecurity. Here, the UN needs to develop powerful analytic tools, such as a fully coordinated Climate change will trigger profound global vulnerability index, that are capable of reliably 72 change, and these changes could pose genuine flagging populations at risk of suffering the

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worst consequences of climate change. The UN Nature Conservation, and Nuclear Safety. Available also needs to beef up its preventative diplomacy, online at http://www.bmu.de/files/climges.pdf possibly through the creation of a senior-level Haines, A. & J.A. Patz. (2004). “Health effects of climate change.” Journal of the American Medical disaster prevention coordinator. Finally, the Association 291(9), 99-103. security risks associated with climate change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). need to be factored into any discussions about (2001a). Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, multilateral intervention and the development and vulnerability (Contribution of Working Group of new norms and institutional arrangements II to the Third Assessment Report of the IPCC). regarding the use of force. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press and IPCC. Available online at http://www.grida.no/climate/ ipcc_tar/wg2/index.htm Notes IPCC. (2001b). Summary for policymakers. Climate change 2001: Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability 1. The report defined people affected by natural (A Report of Working Group II of the IPCC). disaster as those who for a time either lost their home, Cambridge: Cambridge University Press and IPCC. animals, crops, livelihoods, or health as a result of a Available online at natural disaster; see UN/ISDR (2003). http://www.ipcc.ch/pub/un/syreng/wg2spm.pdf 2. See Doyle (2003); Haines & Patz (2004); WHO Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre. (n.d.). The (2002); and WHO (2003). Red Cross and Red Crescent Centre on Climate 3. Editor’s note: Russian President Vladimir Putin Change and Disaster Preparedness. Available online signed the Kyoto Protocol on November 5, 2004, at http://www.climatecentre.org clearing the way for the international treaty to take Schwartz, Peter & Doug Randall. (2003). An abrupt effect in February 2005. climate change scenario and its implications for 4. The Inter-Agency Task Force is chaired by the United States national security. Emeryville, CA: Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs. See Global Business Network. Available online at UN/ISDR (n.d.). http://www.ems.org/climate/ 5. The infolink is a collaboration between the exec_pentagon_climatechange.pdf International Red Cross/Red Crescent Centre on United Nations Inter-Agency Secretariat of the Climate Change and Disaster Preparedness, UNDP, International Strategy for Disaster Reduction and ISDR. See Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate (UN/ISDR). (n.d.). Mission and objectives. Geneva: Centre (n.d.). UN/ISDR. Available online at http://www.unisdr.org/eng/about_isdr/ References isdr-mission-objectives-eng.htm UN/ISDR. (2003). Living with risk: A global review of Brauch, Hans Günter. (2003, October). disaster reduction initiatives. Geneva: UN/ISDR. Mainstreaming early warning of natural disasters and UN/ISDR. (2004). Work programme for the Inter- conflicts. Presented at the Second International Agency Task Force on Disaster Reduction (IATF/DR), Conference on Early Warning, Bonn, Germany. 2004. Geneva: UN/ISDR. Available from Available online at http://www.afes-press.de/pdf/ http://www.unisdr.org/eng/task%20force/ Natural_disaster2.pdf tf-meetigns/9th%20TF%20mtg/working- Doyle, Alistair. (2003, September 30). “160,000 die doc1-IATF-work-programme-2004.doc yearly from global warming.” Reuters News Service. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution. (n.d.). Abrupt Available online at http://www.planetark.com/ climate change. Available online at dailynewsstory.cfm/newsid/22420/story.htm http://www.whoi.edu/institutes/occi/ European Council & European Space Agency. (2004). currenttopics/ct_abruptclimate.htm Global monitoring for environment and security: World Health Organization (WHO). (2002). The Final report for the GMES Initial Period (2001- world health report 2002. Geneva: WHO. Available 2003). Brussels: European Council and European from http://www.who.int/whr/2002/chapter4/en/ Space Agency. Available online at index7.html http://www.gmes.info/action_plan/index.html WHO. (2003). Climate change and human health: German Federal Ministry for the Environment, Risks and responses. Geneva: WHO. Available online Division G II 3. (2002). Climate change and con- at http://www.who.int/globalchange/climate/en/ flict. Berlin: Federal Ministry for the Environment, ccSCREEN.pdf 73

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NEW PUBLICATIONS

The Security Demographic: Population and Civil Conflict After the Cold War Richard P. Cincotta, Robert Engelman, & Daniele Anastasion Washington, D.C.: Population Action International, 2003. 101 pages.

Reviewed by JACK A. GOLDSTONE

Jack A. Goldstone received his doctor- high. These conditions prevailed throughout ate from Harvard and has taught at most of the world before the late 20th century. Populations are also stable when birth and death Northwestern University and the rates are very low; only the most developed University of California at Davis, where nations have arrived at this stage. The path taken he was the director of the Center for by countries from a high birth/high death rate History, Society, and Culture. He is cur- equilibrium to a low birth/low death rate equi- rently Hazel Professor of Public Policy at librium is known as the demographic transition. George Mason University. Most of the countries in Europe, North America, and Australia/New Zealand completed this transition by the early 20th century, and The debate over the connection between popu- many of the countries of East Asia, and a few lation and social welfare is centuries old. others like Brazil and Thailand, reached this Analyses of population growth’s relationship to stage in the last 20 years. However, most of civil strife are much newer, but still span several Africa, the Middle East, South and Southeast decades.1 It is therefore striking that Richard Asia, and Andean Latin America are still in the Cincotta, Robert Engelman, and Daniele early or middle stages of the transition. Anastasion have developed a conceptually fresh As countries move out of the high birth/high approach—one with a surprisingly heartening death rate equilibrium, the death rate falls first, view of the future. as improvements in public health, sanitation, Where most discussions of population and and basic medicines sharply reduce child mor- conflict have focused on factors like population tality from common diseases. Birth rates tend size, growth rates, or density, Cincotta et al. to fall later and more slowly, as societies gradu- argue that a country’s vulnerability to conflict ally realize that children are more likely to sur- depends on its place in the “demographic tran- vive to adulthood. Toward the end of the transi- sition.” Countries in the early phases of this tion, families have fewer children, and invest transition, they conclude, are most prone to more in each of them; these smaller families civil violence; in contrast, countries that have generally enjoy higher levels of nutrition, edu- completed the transition are more stable. cation, and opportunity. Populations are stable when birth and death However, in the early stages of the transi- 74 rates (especially childhood death rates) are very tion—when death rates have fallen but fertili-

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ty remains high—the population grows extremely rapidly, sometimes doubling in a single generation. Population growth is concentrated among youth, since the largest component of falling death rates is reduced infant and child mortality. This creates a substantial “youth bulge”—a disproportionate share of men and women in their teens and early twen- ties compared to mature adults. This baby boom often outpaces society’s ability to establish and staff schools, leading to inadequate education. Job markets also fail to keep up, reducing employment and social mobility of these large and often ill-equipped youth cohorts. Young men and their families, facing shortages of cropland and water, flock to cities seeking employment, leading to an urban explosion. Thus, early transition societies often suffer from a surplus of unemployed youth, chaotic and overgrown cities, and shortages of renewable resources—the conditions, according to Cincotta et al., that make a developing society prone to conflict. Although this is highly plausible and seems consistent with recent civil conflicts, which have mostly occurred in early and middle-stage To their credit, Cincotta et al. have chosen a countries, it is difficult to prove that demo- simple method that addresses most of these graphic factors are really the causal determinant problems. It is not technically sophisticated— of conflict. Other scholars have argued that eco- quite the reverse—but there are virtues in its nomic growth, stable currency, and strong simplicity. The authors rank all the countries by investment can absorb labor surpluses and the size of their youth bulge, the rate of urban encourage people to invest in education and population growth, and their per capita scarcity training; thus, strong economic performance of cropland and fresh water. Countries that can trump demography. In addition, good gov- rank high, medium, and low on these factors ernance (e.g., low levels of corruption, stable are then compared to data from the Uppsala and secure property rights) can enable societies Conflict Data Program to determine the pro- to cope with rapid population growth, attract- portion that experienced an outbreak of new ing investment and directing it where needed.2 civil conflict in the 1990s.3 They find that high- More negatively, a strong authoritarian govern- risk countries tend to have 1.5 to 2.3 times as ment can contain social tensions and prevent many conflicts as low-risk countries. Rapid civil conflict, as demonstrated by the long cor- urban growth and youth bulge return the rupt reigns of Suharto in Indonesia, Mobutu in strongest correlation, while scarcity of renew- Zaire, Moi in Kenya, and many others. Since able resources is a slightly weaker factor. the number of countries in the early or middle Critics may complain that this procedure stages of the democratic transition with strong does not adjust for economic or political insti- economies or good governance is small, it is tutions or performance, and that by ignoring nearly impossible to disentangle these factors ongoing conflicts (only new outbreaks of con- through statistical analysis. flict in the 1990s count as evidence), the data 75

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This monograph is remarkably clear and easy to follow, rich in illustrative maps and graphs ideal for teaching or policy briefings. Each section concludes with a summary of key findings and policy prescriptions. It The Security Demographic brings us good news: as should be widely read and circulated among policymakers, as well as students studying the world moves toward the end of its demographic political instability. transition, the rate of civil conflict should decline. The authors’ policy prescriptions will be familiar to those who work in the health arena, as they echo prevailing wisdom: improve education, especially for women, and increase access to reproductive health services. The report’s evidence, however, gives these old recommenda- disregard a substantial portion of global civil tions new strength. The authors do not simply strife. All true, but Cincotta et al.’s principal offer prescriptions to halt population growth (as finding is too strong to ignore: among 25 coun- if growth itself were a bogeyman); rather, they tries with rapid urban growth and a large youth recommend helping countries transition to bulge in the 1990s, 40 percent developed new smaller families that can invest more resources conflicts during that decade, compared to only in each child. This state appears to offer the 14 percent of the 57 countries without those greatest stability and least conflict—the “securi- factors (page 73). This powerful association ty demographic” of the title. suggests that even if other factors play a role in The Security Demographic brings us good causing civil conflict, they must be strongly news: as the world moves toward the end of its associated with the status of the country’s demographic transition, the rate of civil conflict demographic transition. should decline. That goal seems eminently By focusing on the position of countries desirable and worthy of vigorous promotion along the demographic transition, rather than from the highest levels of government to the simply on population size, growth rate, or smallest villages. density, Cincotta et al. have made a major contribution to the debate on population and Notes conflict. Their evidence—simple, but stark and stunning—demonstrates the power of the 1. For pioneering work, see Moller (1968) and demographic transition to explain a country’s Choucri (1974, 1984). More recent and detailed analy- vulnerability to civil violence. ses were undertaken by Goldstone (1991, 1999) and As a bonus, The Security Demographic Homer-Dixon and his collaborators (1998). The connection has also been the subject of many policy papers includes a valuable chapter on the progress of and briefings cited by Cincotta et al. the HIV/AIDS pandemic and its likely effects 2. This is the “new” thinking in development eco- on population. Unfortunately, there is not nomics; see Collier et al. (2003) and Acemoglu, enough data from the 1990s to test the impact Robinson, and Johnson (2001). of AIDS on conflict (although HIV infection 3. Visit the Uppsala Conflict Data Program at http://www.pcr.uu.se/research/UCDP/ rates are high, mortality has only skyrocketed in UCDP_toplevel.htm the last few years), so this section is somewhat speculative. However, the authors conclude that References countries with the highest rates of AIDS will likely experience more conflict, due to the loss Acemoglu, Daron, James A. Robinson, & Simon of skilled professionals, workers, and military Johnson. (2001). “The colonial origins of compara- 76 men in the prime of life. tive development: An empirical investigation.”

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004 American Economic Review 91, 1369-1401. the early modern world. Berkeley: University of Choucri, Nazli. (1974). Population dynamics and inter- California Press. national violence. Lexington, MA: Lexington Press. Goldstone, Jack A. (1999). “Population and pivotal Choucri, Nazli (Ed.). (1984). Multidisciplinary perspec- states.” In Robert Chase, Emily Hill, & Paul tives on population and conflict. Syracuse, NY: Kennedy (Eds.), U.S. strategy and pivotal states Syracuse University Press. (pages 247-269). New York: W.W. Norton. Collier, Paul, Lani Elliott, Håvard Hegre, Anke Homer-Dixon, Thomas & Jessica Blitt (Eds.). (1998). Hoeffler, Marta Reynal-Querol, & Nicholas Ecoviolence: Links among environment, population, Sambanis. (2003). Breaking the conflict trap: Civil and security. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield. war and development policy. Oxford: Oxford Moller, Herbert. (1968). “Youth as a force in the mod- University Press. ern world.” Comparative Studies in Society and Goldstone, Jack A. (1991). Revolution and rebellion in History 10, 238-260.

Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World Panel on Urban Population Dynamics, Mark R. Montgomery, Richard Stren, Barney Cohen, & Holly E. Reed (Eds.) Washington, D.C.: National Academies Press, 2003. 505 pages.

Reviewed by BARBARA SELIGMAN

Prepared by the National Research Council’s Barbara Seligman is currently a senior pol- Panel on Urban Population Dynamics, Cities icy advisor with the Office of Population Transformed: Demographic Change and Its and Reproductive Health at the U.S. Implications in the Developing World1 is a wel- Agency for International Development. come contribution to a field sorely in need of such a synthesis. Published in 2003 after three and one-half years of deliberation, its princi- lar attention to reproductive issues and chil- pal observations and recommendations are dren’s health. carefully considered, empirically supported, If this volume had a dust jacket, its blurb and always compelling. might read: “Newsflash: by 2030 most Chaired by Mark R. Montgomery, who Americans will not recognize the names of the holds appointments at both the Population world’s largest cities or of the countries they are Council and the State University of New York in.” According to UN population projections at Stony Brook, and Richard Stren of the (notwithstanding their imperfect quality), University of Toronto, the panel prepared a almost all of the world’s population growth in comprehensive review of existing literature the foreseeable future will occur in urban areas and data on the significance of place (i.e., the- of less developed countries. While the develop- ories explaining why urban areas differ from ing world, including Eastern Europe, had only rural); the developing world’s urban transi- 3 cities with 5 million people or more in 1950, tion; and urban population growth, economic by 2015 it will have 49—nearly 5 times as development, and governance. They also many as the industrialized world. India will addressed the relative health advantages or have no fewer than nine of the world’s largest disadvantages of urban areas, paying particu- cities. Two will be in Bangladesh, a country 77

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exception: urban residents—rich or poor—are much more likely to receive skilled attendance when giving birth. The other reproductive health indicators fail to show a clear advantage; for example, the incidence of mistimed and Newsflash: by 2030 most Americans will not unwanted pregnancies is not appreciably lower in cities. In addition, data measuring the quali- recognize the names of the world’s largest ty of reproductive health services available to the urban poor indicate that these services are cities or of the countries they are in. just as inadequate in cities as in rural zones. Where data allow us to look at interurban dif- about the size of Wisconsin, with a per capita ferences, they can be illuminating: cities with GDP of $1,600 (Population Reference Bureau, under 100,000 residents, for example, have the 2003), which is unlikely to improve substantial- most inadequate reproductive health services. As ly over the projection period. urban populations swell in the poorest countries, By 2025, a stunning 50 percent of Africa’s we can expect that more data will challenge the population will live in cities, challenging the assumption that cities provide better health care. common wisdom that urbanization is synony- Yet, without data that differentiate urban zones mous with industrialization. While urban by size, we will not know whether such cases are growth itself should not be a cause for alarm, exceptions or part of a larger phenomenon. the high rate of growth, driven by natural Many of the panel’s recommendations con- increases in the apparent absence of economic cerning data and analysis merit the attention of growth, is both a “cause and symptom of the donors and policymakers. Some appear fairly economic and social crises that have enveloped easy to implement; the panel offers several sug- the continent” (World Bank, 2003). gestions, for example, that would allow It should not be surprising, then, that the researchers to use data from the demographic panel finds evidence—albeit slim—that the and health surveys (DHS) to examine intra- urban advantage in infant and child survival is urban differences. Mindful not to tax an already eroding in some sub-Saharan countries. overburdened survey, the panel points out only a Although the data considered by the panel do few changes that would greatly enhance the sur- not show an urban health penalty, they success- vey’s ability to monitor the effects of urban fully dispel the notion that city residents always growth on key health indicators. As the next enjoy better health. In the few cases where data generation of DHS is launched, there are permit, health indicators for the poor in small encouraging signs that the panel’s recommenda- towns, or other areas of spatially concentrated tions are being seriously considered (Jacob poverty, look as bad—if not worse—as those Adetunji, personal communication, June 2004). for their rural cousins. For example, while The panel also addresses the growing interest infant mortality rates declined in urban Kenya in unequal access and use of health services, and in the city of Nairobi in the 1990s, they including reproductive health services. Without increased in rural Kenya and Nairobi’s slums. information on household income, national The panel concludes that the “urban poor suffer measures of relative wealth employ asset indices from deprivations that can sometimes leave that almost always weight rural and urban resi- them no better off than rural residents, but gen- dents equally. This concentrates rural residents erally situate them between rural residents and in the poorest sections of these wealth indices; the urban non-poor” (page 195). such analysis obscures useful and important Similarly, living in the city does not signifi- spatial information. cantly improve the reproductive health of poor Similarly, a single asset index does not accu- 78 women in urban Africa, with one notable rately capture the relative wealth of rural popu-

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004 lations. For example, agricultural land is often Chongqing, we will have to know more than the negatively weighted in asset indices because it is names of their towns—we will need data that can associated with rural areas, which are dispropor- accurately depict their cities’ transformation. tionately represented in the poorest quintiles. However, agricultural land in rural areas is a Notes wealth-contributing asset. The negative weight- ing of agricultural land is prima facie evidence 1. Cities Transformed is available online at no cost at http://books.nap.edu/catalog/10693.html that these asset indices do not accurately rank wealth in rural areas. This poorly understood References subject warrants further attention. As the panel advises us, our tendency to create Population Reference Bureau. (2003). 2003 world pop- and rely upon data sources and analytical ulation data sheet. Washington, D.C.: Population approaches that minimize spatiality can obscure Reference Bureau. information about the health effects of the urban World Bank. (2003). World development report dynamics dramatically changing the face of our 2000/2001: Attacking poverty. Washington, D.C.: planet. To improve the health and welfare of the World Bank and Oxford University Press. new urbanites in Abidjan, Belo Horizonte, and

Ecological Security: An Evolutionary Perspective on Globalization Dennis Clark Pirages & Theresa Manley DeGeest Lanham: Rowman and Littlefield, 2004. 284 pages.

Reviewed by JON BARNETT

In the aftermath of September 11, security dis- Jon Barnett is a senior lecturer in the course downplayed the “soft” subject of the School of Anthropology, Geography, and environment in favor of harder targets. Instead Environmental Studies at the University of being a liability, environmental security’s of Melbourne. He received his doctorate reduced prominence may provide a unique opportunity for scholars to escape the limits from the Australian National University in imposed by policy imperatives. One of the first 1999. He is the author of The Meaning substantial works in this field to appear since of Environmental Security, published by the terrorist attacks, Ecological Security: An Zed Books in 2001. Evolutionary Perspective on Globalization by Dennis Pirages and Theresa DeGeest, offers a refreshing new conceptual framework that defined, but only Mische (1992) and, to a moves beyond political constraints. lesser extent, Dalby (2002) have adopted this Ecological Security analyzes both globaliza- approach. tion and environmental problems from an Pirages and DeGeest call for a “totally new “eco-evolutionary” perspective, which seeks to security paradigm” that “means moving ecolog- understand the changing relationship ical wisdom and evolutionary processes to the between people and their environment over core of strategic thinking in order to provide a time. This historical method is key to under- more relevant definition of security” (pages 20- standing environmental security, however it is 21). According to the authors, attaining ecolog- 79

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ical security depends on preserving four balances:

• Between human demands for resources and the ability of natural systems to provide these; • Between the demands of human populations and other animals; • Between medical care and pathogenic micro-organisms; and • Among the resource needs of different human populations.

This new—and quite specific—way of understanding security is justifiably deemed way to slow birth rates. The shallow analysis of “ecological” due to its unique focus on other people’s reasons for having fewer children does species and on micro-organisms. not convince the reader that those who favor Pirages and DeGeest do not provide a “more broad-based poverty reduction approaches relevant definition of security,” however, nor do over targeted family planning have impeded they offer a cogent definition of ecological secu- ecological security. rity itself. It is not clear whom or what they “An Assault on the Global Commons” con- believe ecological security will secure. They sug- tinues the polemical tone by opening with an gest that the security referent is any one (or all) unsubstantiated statement about the environ- of the following: ecosystems, the animals we ment’s influence on social life: compete with for resources, the United States, developing countries, and humanity. These are Environmental conditions have played an not mutually exclusive categories, but the book important role in shaping the nature of does not fully explain the synergies among their societies. In general, environments of security interests. When the authors claim that plenty, with temperate climates, abundant “past industrialization clearly has made a sub- food supplies, and mineral wealth, have stantial contribution to social progress and has offered opportunities for civilizations to had an overall positive impact on ecological flourish. Environments of scarcity, by security” (page 190), they imply that only some contrast, have often shaped “Spartan” groups of people are secured, rather than all societies, characterized by more authori- people, other species, or ecosystems. tarian political rule and frequent conflict Chapter 2, “Demographic Change and with neighbors. (page 55). Ecological Insecurity,” identifies rapid population growth in developing countries as a prin- It would take more than one book review to cipal cause of ecological insecurity, and blames list all the counterexamples to this statement; this growth on outdated “pro-natalist norms” for one, the history of temperate Europe is (page 33). Pirages and DeGeest argue that in replete with totalitarianism and conflict. To the later stages of a country’s demographic support this utterly meaningless claim, the transition, birth rates fall because the “beliefs authors refer only to Karl Wittfogel’s Oriental and norms governing reproduction change” Despotism (originally published in 1957) and (page 34). Yet birth rates fall due to more two works by Thomas Homer-Dixon. Very few material processes, like increased wealth and social scientists would agree that social life is a opportunity, and therefore tackling the struc- function of—or can be explained by—the envi- 80 tural causes of poverty is ultimately the best ronment in this way. Luckily, this poor scholar-

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ship is completely out of character with the rest of the book. The wide-ranging discussion of energy security in Chapter 4 covers the history of oil production, contemporary energy geopolitics, and supply and demand in energy markets. Pirages “Globalization and Biosecurity” is the and DeGeest sensibly and logically promote renewable energy as the key to achieving energy strongest and most convincing chapter in the security. However, except for greenhouse gas emissions, the problems discussed in this chap- book; it explains not only the biological, but ter are not clearly ecological. The authors state, also the geographic, economic, and environ- for example, that “the long-term ecological security problem for the United States, and eventual- mental causes of disease. ly the rest of the world, is one of an imbalance between future demand for and reserves of biological, but also the geographic, economic, petroleum” (page 85). Even though this claim and environmental causes of disease. falls under the ambit of the first of the book’s Chapter 7 examines the interactions between “four balances,” it does not correspond to any technological change and security. Like Ulrich recognized definition of ecological. But this is a Beck’s 1999 work World Risk Society, Pirages and small quibble; energy scarcity is undoubtedly a DeGeest imply that it is more difficult to man- security problem—even if not ecological—and age risk when there are global dangers, such as this chapter cogently outlines its dimensions. nuclear and biological weapons, and when per- “The Political Economy of Feast and sonal and social welfare depends on complex Famine” is also only loosely related to ecological interlocking technological structures like com- security. Had Pirages and DeGeest argued that puter networks and telecommunications sys- overpopulation and environmental degradation tems. This chapter links technology’s advances cause famine and malnutrition, these problems and its ever-widening influence to increased pol- might fit the definition of ecological problems. lution and resource consumption, reflecting the Instead, they recognize that poverty, migration, book’s eco-evolutionary perspective. HIV/AIDS, armed conflict, trade, and invest- Finally, Ecological Security offers conclusions ment also play critical roles in food insecurity. and solutions. “Ecologically Secure Indeed, the section titled “Africa: A Malthusian Development” focuses not on solutions, as the Tragedy” owes little to Malthus; rather than title implies, but on the constraints limiting simply grounding Africa’s food problems in them. Even so, it provides a good overview of overpopulation, the authors acknowledge that the power of free market processes to prevent political economy processes structure food sup- sustainable development and support insecurity ply. While entirely correct, this conflicts with and inequality. The authors recommend a “fun- Chapter 1, which accepts the notion of “carry- damental change in definitions of progress and ing capacity” as a driver of “Malthusian dramas” the good life” (page 204), and boldly suggest like famine (page 22). that “some actual sacrifices by the countries of In “Globalization and Biosecurity,” Pirages the Global North” are necessary (page 201). revisits some of his earlier work on the balance The last chapter outlines governance between human populations and pathogenic changes that would facilitate this transforma- micro-organisms, and discusses the competition, arguing that “distributive justice must tion between human beings and other animal become a global public good” (page 218), and species—both novel and genuinely ecological that political globalization—“an active process problems. The strongest and most convincing of building governance beyond the state”—is chapter in the book, it explains not only the an important step towards ecological security 81

NEW PUBLICATIONS (page 219). A short epilogue distills these argu- approach offers new insights for even the most ments into 10 key steps to enhance ecological jaded student of environmental security. security, including: adopting an eco-evolutionary perspective, considering future generations References in decision-making, developing new global institutions, creating and financing new public Beck, Ulrich. (1999). World risk society. Malden, MA: goods as opposed to commodifying all goods Polity Press. Dalby, Simon. (2002). Environmental security. and services, and nurturing a cooperative and Minneapolis: University of Minnesota Press. moral approach to international issues. Mische, Patricia. (1992). “Security through defending If readers begin with the book’s fourth chap- the environment: Citizens say yes!” In E. Boulding ter, they will encounter a logically argued, well- (Ed.), New agendas for peace research: Conflict and researched, well-written, and sometimes inno- security reexamined (pages 103-119). Boulder, CO: vative series of discussions loosely based on the Lynne Rienner. Wittfogel, Karl. (1957). Oriental despotism: A compara- concept of ecological security. Despite some tive study of total power. New Haven, CT: Yale problems in its early chapters, Ecological University Press. Security’s historical perspective and creative

One With Nineveh: Politics, Consumption, and the Human Future By Paul Ehrlich and Anne Ehrlich Washington, D.C.: Island Press, 2004. 334 pages.

Reviewed by DENNIS PIRAGES

Dennis Pirages is Harrison Professor of mented book that ties together and expands International Environmental Politics at the upon many of their classic themes. University of Maryland, College Park. He The book takes its title from Rudyard Kipling’s poem “Recessional” about the fallen is author or editor of 15 books, including Assyrian capital of Nineveh, the ruins of which lie Ecological Security: An Evolutionary near the contemporary Iraqi city of Mosul. The Perspective on Globalization (Rowman & Ehrlichs observe that just as pride and arrogance Littlefield, 2004). led to the collapse of ancient Mesopotamian societies, similar hubris could lead to the downfall of Thirty-six years ago, a young biologist named today’s global civilization. Rulers of these early Paul Ehrlich issued a warning about the dire empires fought wars and built costly monuments consequences of rapid population growth in his while ignoring the environmental decay under- book, The Population Bomb (1968). Over the mining their societies. In a striking parallel, the following decades, Ehrlich (often in collabora- U.S. government refuses to ratify the Kyoto tion with his wife Anne) authored numerous Protocol, while pursuing a costly military venture prescient and authoritative works on the world’s in the Middle East and unveiling war memorials mounting demographic, environmental, and in Washington. The so-called war on terrorism resource problems. The Ehrlich’s latest effort, dominates newspaper headlines, while the steady One With Nineveh: Politics, Consumption, and deterioration of humanity’s life support systems is 82 the Human Future, is a reasoned and well-docu- given only scant space.

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One With Nineveh begins with an overview of the elements of the contemporary human predicament, including inadequate fresh water, collapsing world fisheries, loss of biodiversity, increased pollution, the specter of communica- ble disease, and, more recently, climate change. In an ideal world, people would be more envi- The authors identify the principal forces batter- ing the global environment: population growth, ronmentally aware; global population would fall overconsumption, and dangerous technologies. But then they venture into new territory, turning rapidly to the recommended two billion; power from the environmental to the political, posing and privilege would be widely shared; and philosophical questions for domestic and international environmental agendas. Since wealth technology would be harnessed to reduce pol- and power are closely connected, and both are linked to overconsumption, the Ehrlichs advo- lution and resource depletion. But the book cate opening a dialogue on limiting the accumu- leaves unanswered the most important ques- lation of personal wealth and establishing the rights and responsibilities of property owners in tion: how do we get there from here? a more densely populated world. Following its impressive and well-reasoned in population and consumption could have an overview of the links between environmental alarming impact, including a plummeting stock and socio-political problems, One With Nineveh market, a rise in corporate bankruptcies, dwin- concludes with a menu of recommended policy dling tax revenues, reduced social services, less reforms. While all are laudable—and most funding for research and development, and— make sense—many require the wealthy and much closer to home for some of us—eroding powerful to permit destruction of the hierarchy foundation and university endowments. Not a upon which their power and privilege depends. pleasant future for those caught in the transi- In an ideal world, people would be more envi- tion to a world one-third of its current size. ronmentally aware; global population would The situation in the former Soviet Union fall rapidly to the recommended two billion; may shed some light on the possible conse- power and privilege would be widely shared; quences of non-growth. Population and con- and technology would be harnessed to reduce sumption began a significant decline soon after pollution and resource depletion. But the book the fall of communism, and the Russian people leaves unanswered the most important ques- have paid a heavy price during the transition. tion: how do we get there from here? The population is now declining at 0.7 percent The book’s recommendations beg three annually; if this trend continues, today’s popu- questions. First, what are the limits to non- lation of 145 million will shrink to 119 million growth? Over the last three decades, Paul and by 2050 (Population Reference Bureau, 2003). Anne Ehrlich have performed an invaluable The years since the fall of the wall have been service by calling attention to the dangers of marked by high unemployment, a dramatic rapid population growth and surges in resource surge in disease, increased alcoholism and drug consumption. Their solution requires that glob- use, and a significant drop in life expectancy al population rapidly decline until it levels off (Feshbach, 2003). Fortunately, some of the mis- around two billion. But just as there are limits ery has been alleviated by economic aid from to population and consumption growth, rapid the United States and European Union. But if decline has its own perils. Whether we like it or this decline occurred on a global scale, there not, economic growth is tightly woven into the would be no outside sources of support and the fabric of capitalist societies. A significant drop consequences would be much harsher. Despite 83

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this, I am not arguing that a gradual reduction reversal. The number of U.S. millionaires in world population is undesirable. However, (excluding home equity) jumped from 2 million abrupt demographic change can have signifi- in 2002 to 2.27 million in 2003, while the num- cant consequences: just as rapid population ber of “ultrarich” worth over $30 million in the growth detonated a bomb, a sudden decline in United States and Canada grew to 30,000 in population could create a debilitating bust. 2003 (Frank, 2004). While the Ehrlichs hope Second, the Ehrlichs give shabby treatment that the very rich might use their money to to the power of technological innovation to establish philanthropic foundations, they are solve some of these problems. While they do more likely to spend it on multiple homes and refer to technology as a two-edged sword, they luxury cars. It is hard to imagine how to slow the cling to the Ehrlich-Holdren I = PAT formula considerable momentum of global wealth con- in which environmental impact (I) is a function centration. Just as the Titanic’s passengers par- of population (P) multiplied by affluence (A) tied into the night, confident that the ship was and then multiplied again by the impact of unsinkable, the rising tide of millionaires and technology (T). This implies that technology is near-millionaires is caught up in a frenzy of con- responsible for increasing environmental sumption, supremely confident that their wealth impact. But technology can solve environmen- and possessions will insulate them from any bad tal problems as well as create them—the choice times to come. is clearly ours. Just as technological innovation In One With Nineveh, the Ehrlichs have mas- in agriculture has averted worldwide famine (at terfully tied pressing global environmental least for the present), technological innovation problems to their socio-political and economic could solve some of the consumption and pol- origins. They also have initiated an important lution problems associated with increasing discussion examining the roots of our contem- affluence. The technology to increase automo- porary human predicament. They make a bile mileage and cut pollution is available, but strong argument for reintroducing population, political cowardice and perverted public policy consumption, and power issues into public dis- keep driving Hummers and other ugly, over- course. This book is must reading for all those weight gas-guzzlers out of automobile show- in positions of power and privilege—unfortu- rooms and onto our crowded highways. nately, an unlikely scenario. We should contin- Finally, the book’s focus on how the concen- ue to explore the critical question—how can tration of power and privilege increases con- Homo sapiens escape the consumption trap sumption and environmental deterioration rais- while public discourse focuses on a seemingly es fundamental questions. Since the endless war against terrorism?—or risk suffer- Depression, three generations of Americans ing the same fate as Nineveh. have defined the good life in terms of profligate consumption. Economists continually beat the References drums urging us to consume more to ensure a healthy economy. Politicians promise to stimu- Ehrlich, Paul. (1968). The population bomb. New York: late economic growth in order to get elected. Ballantine Books. This does not foster voluntary simplicity. Of Feschbach, Murray. (2003). Russia’s health and demo- course, there is no intrinsic reason to associate graphic crises: Policy implications and consequences. happiness with NASCAR and private trips into Washington, D.C.: The Chemical and Biological space. People could learn to appreciate litera- Arms Control Institute. ture, art, plays, hiking, and other low-impact Frank, Robert. (2004, June 15). “U.S. led a resurgence last year among millionaires world-wide.” The Wall activities. But how do we radically change the Street Journal, page A1. course of our socio-cultural evolution? Population Reference Bureau. (2003). 2003 world pop- The current social and economic situation in ulation data sheet. Washington, D.C.: Population 84 the United States does not seem conducive to a Reference Bureau.

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004 Red Sky at Morning: America and the Crisis of the Global Environment (A Citizen’s Agenda for Action) James Gustave Speth New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2004. 275 pages.

Reviewed by FREDERICK A.B. MEYERSON

“With more than two decades of dilatoriness Frederick A.B. Meyerson, Ph.D., is a vis- behind us, it is now an understatement to say iting scholar at the Population Reference we are running out of time. For such crucial Bureau and is currently writing a book issues as deforestation, climate change, and loss about U.S. population policy and its of biodiversity, we have already run out of time” (page 9). Gus Speth’s readable, carefully writ- environmental consequences, to be pub- ten, and often eloquent book, Red Sky at lished by Smithsonian Books in 2005. He Morning: America and the Crisis of the Global can be reached at [email protected]. Environment, repeats a familiar warning, first issued more than 40 years ago by Rachel Carson in Silent Spring. Both an autobiography by one of the envi- advise the Clinton administration. His creden- ronmental movement’s major players and a col- tials and opportunities to shape the world of lection of the best ideas and observations of his environmental policy could not possibly be generation, Red Sky at Morning is important more impressive. Speth was—and still is—in a reading for anyone interested in the history and position to make a difference. future of environmental policy. Speth’s first- It is therefore very significant that his book hand accounts, opinions, and ruminations are has a discouraged and wistful air, with chapter real gems. To confront global environmental titles like “A World of Wounds” and “Anatomy threats, he relates, “the international communi- of Failure.” While he tries to maintain an ty framed and implemented an inadequate, upbeat tone by concluding with an ambitious flawed response—weak medicine for a very ill agenda for action, Speth is clearly a weary war- patient” (page 100). “My generation is a gener- rior. The first and most revealing half of Red Sky ation, I fear, of great talkers, overly fond of con- at Morning focuses on the failures of the envi- ferences. On action, however, we have fallen far ronmental movement and our collective inabil- short” (page 8). Speth seeks to remedy these ity to stem global environmental deterioration: historical shortcomings with Red Sky at “The current system of international efforts to Morning’s call for a “transition to sustainability.” help the environment simply isn’t working. The design makes sure it won’t work, and the statis- Weary Warrior tics keep getting worse” (page xii).

Currently the dean of the Yale School of Treading Water Forestry and Environmental Studies, Speth co- founded the Natural Resources Defense I first met Gus Speth in the summer of 1979, Council (NRDC) in 1970, fresh from Yale Law when I was an idealistic college intern at the School and a Supreme Court clerkship. He Environmental Protection Agency and he was went on to chair President Carter’s Council on chairman of the CEQ. At that moment, both Environmental Quality (CEQ), found and institutions seemed near the center of the head the World Resources Institute, run the American political universe, following the pre- United Nations Development Programme, and ceding decade’s cavalcade of important environ- 85

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passes almost the entire human endeavor. However, although Speth spends several pages describing the environmental challenges of continuing global population growth, he curi- ously omits any mention of U.S. growth, which, at more than three million people per year, surpasses all but China and India (and trumps both of these giants in terms of environmental impact). To confront these various threats, Speth says, “The principal way to a sustainable world is to apply major resources of time and money to the promotion of eight broad, linked transitions that seek to define and redirect growth” (page 152), such as transitioning to environmentally benign technologies, environmentally honest prices, sustainable consumption, a stable or mental legislation. In 1980, Speth released smaller world population, and a world free of CEQ’s Global 2000 Report to the President, a mass poverty. seminal work that brought global warming to These utopian ideas are attractive, but the the public consciousness, part of an apparently language and suggested means may appeal more rising tide of environmental awareness and to policy wonks than revolutionaries. Freedom action. In hindsight, however, its publication from mass poverty, environmentally benign at the end of the Carter administration was the technologies, and environmentally honest high-water mark of the American environ- prices, for example, can only be actualized (if at mental era. all) by big government, large NGOs, top-down In the 1960s and 1970s, as Speth relates, new policies, and well-connected cognoscenti. These environmental laws targeted the low-hanging are the same forces that Speth criticizes for fail- fruit. Since then, there have been a few startling ing to get the job done over the last several successes, such as the Montreal Protocol, but on decades. So when he suggests that citizen most critical issues like biodiversity and climate activists contribute to hundreds of environmen- change, we have been treading water—or worse. tal organizations (listed—but frustratingly Speth reminds us that nearly all of the environ- unranked—in the book’s final section), it is mental problems now facing the world have both overwhelming and a little anticlimactic. If been known for a quarter century. He laments that approach has not worked for the last 30 that “little has been done…. If I were a young years, why will it work in the future? person being handed this problem by indulgent predecessors, I would be angry” (page 5). Grand Old Men

Drivers and Solutions The Economist (2004) called Speth “one of the grand old men of greenery.” Therein lies his In the second half of his book, Speth provides a great wisdom and genuine appeal, but also the convincing depiction of 10 drivers of environ- root of the environmental movement’s most mental destruction (population, affluence, serious problem: it has aged, growing from its technology, poverty, market failure, policy and strident, bold, and energetic youth into a more political failure, economic growth, the econom- conservative, cautious, and sometimes resigned ic system, our culture and values, and globaliza- middle age. In the 1970s, the scruffy, chaotic, 86 tion). This thorough but daunting list encom- shoestring atmosphere of the World Wildlife

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Fund, NRDC, and other enviros fostered scrap- he characterizes as a desperate downhill slide. piness, improvisation, and risk taking. Today, if In that regard, I wish Speth had subjected you stroll into the offices of many environmen- the movement to a more critical analysis. Who tal NGOs, you will encounter marble and glass are the good and bad apples? In retrospect, what lobbies, well-coiffed receptionists, and soft ele- would Speth have done differently to avoid pro- vator music—trappings barely distinguishable ducing what he calls a “toothless legacy of from those of large corporations and law firms. treaties”? What can we do differently in the Many environmental groups also suffer from future? Can his proposed solutions really work, the problems plaguing the corporate world, given what we know about human nature? such as CEOs who pay themselves too much, Some of these difficult questions are raised conflicts of interest, and insider deals for towards the end of Red Sky at Morning, but they wealthy patrons. Boards are populated by titans are largely left unanswered. This may be too of industry, wealthy investors, and professors much to ask of Speth in this middle chapter of emeriti: environmentalism has grown up and his life. The book is therefore an invaluable and grown comfortable. It is an old-growth forest, compelling history, but perhaps not an ade- ripe for a major disturbance and rebirth. quate blueprint for a troubling future. I look “The environment is becoming more central forward to a strong sequel. to business strategic planning….New partnerships between corporations and environmental Passing the Torch NGOs are being forged,” Speth writes (page The major NGOs 187). This is true, but is it the solution or part Like other “grand old men” (and women) of his are now successful of the problem? Much of the environmental extraordinary generation, Speth has devoted movement now suffers from the pragmatic con- most of his life to environmental causes. Indeed, enough that they servatism bred by financial entanglement. The he recognizes that he is on the verge of passing test the wind rather major NGOs are now successful enough that the torch: “It will soon become a new genera- they test the wind rather than throwing caution tion’s struggle. We must help them get prepared than throwing cau- to it. When the revolution goes mainstream and for this difficult assignment” (page xiv). His tion to it. When the corporate, how do you keep the revolution sixth recommendation is “knowledge and learn- going? Speth’s book doesn’t look inward enough ing”: to create what “is needed for the transition revolution goes to address this quandary. to sustainability” and to train a new era of envi- mainstream and cor- ronmental professionals. He expresses hope for Pulling Punches “the spark that can set off a period of rapid porate, how do you change…the Environmental Revolution of the keep the revolution Speth would like to rally us to action, but there twenty-first century” (page 198). If the next is a cognitive dissonance between Red Sky at generation questions authority as much as Gus going? Speth’s book Morning’s apocalyptic warnings, Speth’s frustra- Speth did at the outset of his amazing journey, doesn’t look inward tion at the movement’s failures, and his calm they might create that spark. presentation of proposed solutions. He may enough to address have pulled a few punches for political reasons. References this quandary. The book, like the man who wrote it, has a gen- tle touch. In person, you can feel the fire inside Council on Environmental Quality. (1980). The global him, but on paper, he is more measured. Speth 2000 report to the President: Entering the 21st centu- is a reasonable voice among radicals, a synthe- ry. Washington, D.C.: Council on Environmental sizer, and a coalition builder. He likely would Quality and Department of State. “Green reflections.” (2004, March 18). The Economist. not have been chosen to lead great institutions Retrieved November 8, 2004, from if he were a fire-breathing dragon, but his gen- http://www.economist.com/books/displayStory.cfm erous qualities are also limitations in a war that ?story_id=2516736 87

NEW PUBLICATIONS Environment, Development and Human Security: Perspectives From South Asia Adil Najam (Ed.) New York: University Press of America, 2003. 286 pages.

Reviewed by NAVROZ K. DUBASH

Navroz K. Dubash is a senior fellow in Environment, Development and Human governance and public policy at the Security reproaches the theoretical genuflecting National Institute of Public Finance and that has characterized recent environmental security literature. “Most of our authors,” notes Policy in New Delhi, India. His current Najam, “seem to find these ‘hot’ intellectual work examines the political economy of debates uninteresting if not irrelevant to the infrastructure reform, focusing on social problems [with which] they are grappling” (page and environmental concerns. 250). Instead, the volume asks, what is relevant to South Asia’s on-the-ground practitioners? Poverty, the authors discover, is a key ele- For the last 15 years, scholars have contested ment linking environmental degradation to the definition, key explanatory variables, and insecurity—and to a greater extent than cur- methodological approaches of environmental rently recognized. The South Asian experience security, spanning the distance from tradition- suggests that poverty may even be required for al interstate security to the broader concept of environmental degradation to lead to violent human security. These fundamental debates conflict. This finding, and the exploration that have become heated at times; for example, in informs it, is framed in the language of ECSP’s 2003 report, Thomas Homer-Dixon “human security,” which redefines security as locked horns with Nancy Peluso and Michael freedom from pervasive threats to people’s Watts over the nature of violent conflict: rights, safety, or lives. should theorists privilege environmental The book approaches the nexus of environ- scarcity as an explanatory factor, as Homer- ment, development, and human security from Dixon asserts, or should they begin with the two angles: country studies and natural political economy of resource access and con- resources. The country studies—on India, trol, as Peluso and Watts argue? Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal— Into this theoretical thicket Adil Najam and contain a store of detailed information. Four of his colleagues have injected Environment, the five (Nepal is the exception) survey the Development and Human Security: Perspectives nation’s environmental status and examine its From South Asia. Avowedly empirical, the book security implications; the Pakistan and Sri is not preoccupied with untangling theory: it Lanka chapters also include case studies. As is seeks “neither to posit a new conceptual frame- too often the case with this genre, the surveys work…nor to put any of the existing frame- are more informative than illuminating, and works to the test of empirical evidence emerg- therefore a little dry. A sharper analytical edge ing from South Asia” (page 245). Instead, it would have made them more engaging; the focuses on developing a “better policy Pakistan chapter by Shaheen Rafi Khan, for sense…of how the twin challenges of environ- example, intriguingly deviates from the stan- ment and human security are intertwined” dard template to examine Pakistan’s environ- 88 (page 245). ment through the lens of vulnerability.

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The book’s analyses of environment and by efficiency, energy dependence, and environ- security linkages are livelier. The Bangladesh mental security. The graphs illustrating the chapter by A. Atiq Rahman, Zahid H. chapter capture, at a glance, patterns across Chowdhury, and Ahsan U. Ahmed establishes South Asia. four categories of linkages: national sovereignty, Khalid Saeed’s chapter on land use projects livelihoods, health, and ecology. The Pakistan food and land-related trends for 14 countries chapter uses a model of direct effects (those using a system dynamics model. Even though based on institutional gaps and failures) and the model’s structure is presented diagram- indirect effects (those that operate through matically, it is hard to understand. Moreover, poverty). Both of these models are useful organ- even though more recent data are available, izing tools and yield greater insights than the the inputs date from 1987. It is hard to survey sections. However, given the book’s believe the author’s claim that an additional empirical mandate, these models are not fully decade of data would not affect the results. developed, and the diversity of approaches pre- Perhaps most problematically, Saeed does not vents cross-country comparisons. While Najam delve any deeper than country-level data, praises this analytical eclecticism for producing which is particularly egregious in a human a broader range of findings, the chapters’ security framework. For example, an analysis empirical material might have benefited from of different consumer classes’ access to food more theoretical cogency. under conditions of stress would have added Environment, The case studies shed the burden of compre- to his argument. Development and hensiveness in search of explanatory depth. For Ramaswamy R. Iyer’s chapter on water example, Rahman et al. recount the remarkable begins intriguingly by warning that applying a Human Security story of a misguided and mismanaged dam on security framework to environmental problems reproaches the the- Bangladesh’s Karnaphuli River that pushed an could be dangerous. Instead of improving secu- indigenous community out of their forest rity, he fears, the interaction may damage envi- oretical genuflecting refuge, leading to a quarter century of armed ronmental discourse. In his discussion of flood that has character- conflict that ultimately threatened Bangladesh’s management, water quality, and water sharing, political stability. Similarly, Sarath W. Iyer limits his use of “security” to interstate rela- ized recent environ- Kotagama’s case-rich chapter on Sri Lanka tionships. However, when he addresses cooper- mental security liter- describes a community displaced by a national ation, he adopts a wider view, issuing an impas- park, illustrating the occasionally antagonistic sioned and convincing plea to escape the intel- ature. Instead, the relationship between the environment and lectual straitjacket of supply-side thinking that volume asks, what is human security. has dominated water management in South Ajaya Dixit and Dipak Gyawali’s chapter on Asia for the past decades. relevant to South Nepal is worthy of separate comment; it By steering clear of theoretical debates, the Asia’s on-the-ground eschews the survey approach in favor of a volume loses some of its power to convince the human security argument centered on multiple reader, as illustrated by two examples drawn practitioners? “securities in conflict,” which are tied to percep- from the editor’s “five key lessons.” First, Najam tions of risk and mechanisms for coping with it. makes a strong case that these essays demon- The authors convincingly recommend using strate the value of locating environment and institutional pluralism to negotiate these dis- security within the rubric of sustainable devel- parate notions of security. opment. However, without exploring the litera- The remaining three chapters discuss natural ture on security, how can the reader understand resources—energy, land, and water—in the why we should retain the language of security, context of environment and development. In as opposed to subsuming the entire discussion their tightly structured discourse on energy and in sustainable development? Second, Najam security, Najam and Kumudu Gunasekera out- critiques the mainstream security discourse for line “energy paths” over time and organize them over-emphasizing resource abundance at the 89

NEW PUBLICATIONS expense of institutions and governance. References Engaging the substantial literature on political ecology, and its efforts to understand causal Jon Barnett. (2003). [Review of the book Environment mechanisms beyond scarcity and abundance, and security: Discourses and practices]. would have strengthened this argument. Environmental Change and Security Project Report 7, 161-163. Retrieved August 16, 2004, from This said, through its diverse disciplinary http://www.wilsoncenter.org/topics/pubs/ECSP7- perspectives, its focus on societies rather than bookreviews.pdf states, and its empirical examples, Environment, Homer-Dixon, Thomas, Nancy Peluso, & Michael Development and Human Security is a worthy Watts. (2003). “Exchange: Thomas Homer-Dixon, contribution to what Barnett (2003) calls the Nancy Peluso, and Michael Watts on Violent envi- “third wave” of environment-security scholar- ronments.” Environmental Change and Security Project Report 9, 89-96. ship. The book’s empirical focus on one of the world’s most vulnerable regions reminds academics to stay grounded instead of drifting away from practitioners’ concerns.

Security and Environment in the Mediterranean: Conceptualizing Security and Environmental Conflicts Hans Günter Brauch, P.H. Liotta, Antonio Marquina, Paul F. Rogers, & Mohammad El-Sayed Selim (Eds.) Berlin: Springer, 2003. 1136 pages.

Reviewed by EVAN VLACHOS

Evan Vlachos is a professor of sociology cal challenges, and political and economic and civil engineering at Colorado State developments in this fascinating and ever- University and associate director of the evolving region. Due to the encyclopedic compilation of topics International School for Water and its diverse authorial styles, the book is diffi- Resources. cult to evaluate. Yet, thanks to the editors’ careful attention to structure and coherence, it is not just a collection of vaguely related papers. Instead, Upon receiving this massive volume, I marveled five key themes clearly emerge from the text. at its sheer size: its 1136 pages include 321 illus- First, the book focuses on the dramatic transfor- trations, 2 forewords, 4 prefaces, 13 parts, and mation of our complex and interdependent 52 chapters, not to mention a truly expansive world. The global environment is rapidly chang- bibliography, copious footnotes, website ing, due to degradation of natural resources and addresses, and assorted appendices. Security and anthropogenic impacts, such as overpopulation, Environment in the Mediterranean boasts an hyperurbanization, and agricultural innovations. impressive roster of Mediterranean specialists At the same time, the search for peace and securi- and scholars in security, social, and environ- ty has become a central preoccupation. Second, mental studies addressing conflicts and cooper- the book addresses the “fall of paradigms” after 90 ation, theoretical approaches and methodologi- the turn of the 21st century and the pivotal

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events of September 11, 2001. Throughout the volume, earlier theoretical approaches—namely, Hobbesian/Machiavellian (pessimistic), Kantian (normative), and Grotian (pragmatic or interna- tionalist)—are juxtaposed with more interdependent conceptual models. Security and Environment in the Mediter- ranean posits a new understanding of security in the context of social-economic-political- environmental conditions; this theme is closely related to the fourth key theme, which investi- gates the overlap between development and security. Security is broadly defined to encompass survival, social well-being, and eradication of poverty and exploitation. Finally, the fifth major theme is a normative (teleological) approach that emphasizes goals and visions. I was struck by the association of such terms as “dignity” and “degradation” with the search for security (see Chapter 14, for example). Such visionary thinking is consistent with the pro- nouncements emerging from recent scientific “Prevention of Violent Conflicts” contains a conferences and United Nations programs, useful policy toolbox for conflict prevention such as the Millennium Development Goals. that addresses underlying socio-economic caus- A note of caution: when considering these es, intermediate political and institutional fac- shifting and emerging paradigms, we must tors, and a range of triggers and events (pages carefully separate ideological orientations 173-174). from visionary aspirations. This is particularly The volume’s look at NATO is mostly prag- true when discussing confrontations between matic and descriptive, although Peter Liotta’s the Middle East and circum-Mediterranean “Military and Environmental Security” in Part countries. Long-standing historical grudges III includes an insightful analysis of the new have often interfered with dispassionate emphasis on human and environmental securi- efforts to encourage negotiation, mediation, ty and the move away from the old security or conflict resolution. dilemma to a new survival dilemma. Liotta Any collection of this size contains a few competently discusses socio-political forces that uneven chapters. The first essay, however, can lead to either global fragmentation or inte- deserves close reading; its detailed introduction gration. Similarly, in “From Cooperative to the evolution and interdependence of Security to Security Partnership in the Mediterranean security makes the essential Mediterranean,” Antonio Marquina describes point that cooperative security concepts how alliances like NATO reconceptualize tradi- emerged to manage the end of the Cold War.1 tional security as human survival. Bechir The next chapter on the Mediterranean eco- Chourou’s “Conceptualizations of Security” region’s fragmentation is particularly impres- notes that national security is often confused sive; its exhaustive and well-footnoted analysis with a particular regime’s security, using exam- of definitions, schools of thought, and world ples drawn from the Maghreb region. views includes a valuable introduction to vul- By now, the metamorphosis from traditional nerability and its centrality to ongoing theoreti- security to all-encompassing human survival is cal and methodological efforts. Michael Lund’s quite familiar. Many of the book’s authors 91

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taxed by continuous summaries and summaries of summaries. Despite (or because) of its extensive footnotes, abundant diagrams, and summarizing tables, I would recommend this book as an In its desire to be all-inclusive, the volume has important addition to any library on environmental security. I am perplexed, however, that ballooned to an almost prohibitive size—I sym- such a large and conceptually demanding volume would target an undergraduate audience. pathize with the poor undergraduate who has This specialized volume is difficult reading; I to haul this hefty collection around campus! cannot envision using it in any undergraduate curriculum. On the other hand, scholars and graduate students, if they can afford its significant price ($159), will find this a great collec- introduce environmental concerns and empha- tion of conceptual clarifications, important size the multilateral efforts of the European data, methodological considerations, hard-to- Union, World Bank, and others to avoid a strict- find references, historical trends, and succinct ly “securitized” view of the environment; see, for summaries of convoluted international treaties example, “Environmental Security: Conceptual and excruciating international negotiations. Contestation and Empirical Relevance in the In all, Security and Environment in the Mediterranean” by Stacy D. VanDeveer. This Mediterranean will reward the patient reader. chapter marks the transition from the first half’s Bechir Chourou closes his careful analysis in overview of security concepts to the second Chapter 47 with a definition of security in the half’s look at environmental viability, including context of different cultures and backgrounds: the role of population, climate, desertification, water scarcity, food security, urbanization, and No nation can insure its survival alone. natural disasters. Finally, the last section The Europeans understood this back in (“Empirical and Theoretical Results and 1957 and acted upon it. The Arabs under- Conceptual Conclusions”) underlines the need stood the need for concerted action even for conceptual clarity, cooperative activities, and earlier (1948) but did little about case studies, and argues that scholars should it….[The] Euro-Mediterranean dialogue continue to search for underlying causes rather should henceforth focus on creating a new than simply discussing symptoms. mentality, which recognizes that the future In such a large collection of diverse papers— hinges not on short-term security but on with many semantic and linguistic side trips— long-term survival, and that survival can it is difficult to separate the interesting from the no longer be considered as the exclusive or important. Some chapters are repetitious, and preordained right of the fittest. (page 841). in its desire to be all-inclusive, the volume has ballooned to an almost prohibitive size—I sym- A great summary for this challenging volume. pathize with the poor undergraduate who has to haul this hefty collection around campus! By Notes the end I was tired of reading text that had appeared in earlier chapters; editing out the 1. More recently, the security community has overlapping material would have lengthened turned its attention to the rising North-South asym- the reader’s attention span, which is already metric interdependencies (page 317).

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004 The Global Threat of New and Reemerging Infectious Diseases: Reconciling U.S. National Security and Public Health Policy Jennifer Brower & Peter Chalk Santa Monica: RAND, 2003. 146 pages.

Reviewed by ANDREW PRICE-SMITH

The emergence, re-emergence, and prolifera- Andrew Price-Smith is assistant professor tion of infectious diseases in the modern era of environmental science and policy at have given rise to a growing body of literature the University of South Florida. Recent examining the effects of contagion upon works include The Health of Nations: nations. The earliest pioneers, historians such as William McNeil and Alfred Crosby, argued that Infectious Disease, Environmental human history has been significantly influenced Change, and Their Effects on National by biological parameters, including the effects Security and Development (MIT Press, of pathogenic micro-organisms. These bio-his- 2002) and Downward Spiral: HIV/AIDS, torians were later joined by political scientists State Capacity, and Political Conflict in like Dennis Pirages, Robert Ostergard, Stefan Elbe, David Fidler, Mark Zacher, and Yanzhong Zimbabwe (United States Institute of Huang, and by intelligence analysts such as Peace Press, 2004). David Gordon and Don Noah. Collectively, their works form the basis for the growing field of war and poverty in amplifying disease, and of health security. Microbiologist Jennifer their discussion of climate change neglects the Brower and political scientist Peter Chalk throw effects of temperature on microbial incubation their hats into the ring with The Global Threat and insect biting rates. of New and Reemerging Infectious Diseases, a Even with its analytical shortcomings, The timely look at the United States’ public health Global Threat of New and Reemerging Infectious policy and its effects on national security. Diseases is a decent health security primer, Despite the wealth of research to draw upon, which may be useful for students, policymak- Brower and Chalk strangely ignore prior litera- ers, and laymen. The authors used solid data ture in the field. They claim, rather grandiosely, and conducted some enlightening on-site inter- that theirs is the first book to comprehensively views with political figures in regions seriously link disease to national security. By failing to give affected by epidemic disease (such as sub- credit where it is due, they undermine sections of Saharan Africa). Their timely analysis of South the book that are derivative of other work— Africa’s HIV/AIDS epidemic examines how dis- notably, David Gordon’s reports on behalf of the ease demoralizes citizens and undercuts civil National Intelligence Council (Gordon, 2000). society. While their prediction that South The book is conceptually muddled. At first, Africa will become unstable by 2010 may seem the authors proclaim that they intend to adopt pessimistic, growing evidence supports the a human security focus on the individual. hypothesis that high rates of HIV/AIDS can However, the rest of the book analyzes the undermine state capacity and social cohesion, effects of disease upon national security, thus particularly when accompanied by poor gover- employing explicitly state-centric concepts. In nance. (This argument might have been addition, it suffers from some serious omis- enhanced by a breakdown of HIV/AIDS’ effect sions. For example, the authors ignore the role on the economy and foreign investment.) 93

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The authors assert that HIV-induced Notwithstanding these efforts, systemic vul- declines will reduce South Africa’s influence in nerabilities undermine the United States’ ability the region, and thereby exacerbate conflict. to respond effectively to mass contagion. However, given that Botswana, Zimbabwe, Specifically, Brower and Chalk cite inadequate Zambia, and Swaziland all have relatively high- national surveillance mechanisms, fiscal neg- er HIV prevalence rates that South Africa, the lect, lack of personnel, diminishing capacity to latter’s power may actually increase relative to produce vaccines and therapeutic agents, and a its neighbors. Regardless, South Africa’s capaci- lack of coordination. The authors also discuss ty to mount effective peacekeeping operations persistent problems in communication between will certainly decline. the federal, state, and local health bureaucracies Chapter 4 warns that the United States is that effectively hinder response, as demonstrat- increasingly vulnerable to the ravages of emerged during the 2001 anthrax attacks. ing infections, resistant strains of disease, and Further, the authors note that U.S. health bioterrorism. However, U.S. capacity for deal- care aid to developing countries across the globe While the predic- ing with these problems is higher than that of is insufficient. The developing world is the tion that South most other nations on the planet, so U.S. vul- breeding ground for many new pathogens that nerability must be put into proper context. could be quickly transported to the United Africa will become Nations with lower levels of capacity (e.g., States via tourism or trade. Therefore, investing unstable by 2010 Haiti, Rwanda, and Bangladesh) are far more in global public health should be a greater pri- vulnerable to destabilization from epidemic ority for federal legislators and bureaucracies. In may seem pes- infection. Nonetheless, the authors provide an the concluding chapter, the authors recom- simistic, growing enlightening discussion of the negative eco- mend streamlining domestic pathogen surveil- nomic and psycho-social impact of bioterror lance and response systems, creating an effective evidence supports during the 2001 anthrax attacks, and they high- public health reserve response system, establish- the hypothesis that light the inadequacies of the United States’ curing analytical capacity within U.S. intelligence rent public health care infrastructure. structures, and integrating disease into national high rates of In Chapter 5, Brower and Chalk issue anoth- security calculations. HIV/AIDS can er warning: the United States’ greatest vulnera- Despite its minor problems, The Global bility lies at the state level. Individual states are Threat of New and Reemerging Infectious Disease undermine state responsible for monitoring and responding to provides a constructive analysis of the United capacity and social disease outbreaks, coordinating their data and States’ capability to detect and respond to responses through the federal Centers for Disease pathogens during outbreaks. The chapter on cohesion, particu- Control, but states’ capacity to diagnose patterns South Africa offers a valuable illustration of the larly when accom- of illness and respond to outbreaks varies widely. impact of infectious disease on social stability in Indeed, there is no comprehensive national labo- the developing world. The book would have panied by poor ratory system for surveillance. benefited from another case study, perhaps on governance. The book’s exhaustive treatment of federal the deleterious effects of another pathogen programs and initiatives designed to respond to (e.g., malaria) on a country’s political economy. major health emergencies does turn up some All told, the book is a solid primer for students, highlights, such as the efforts of the U.S. lawmakers, and laymen, and would be useful Department of Defense to develop global supplementary reading for undergraduate pathogen surveillance systems. The U.S. gov- courses addressing health and security. ernment is developing novel capabilities to respond to bioterrorist attacks or naturally References occurring large-scale outbreaks. New legislation, such as the Model Emergency Health Gordon, David F. (2000). The global infectious disease Powers Act, gives state officials vastly expanded threat and its implications for the United States. 94 powers during a major health emergency. Washington, D.C.: National Intelligence Council.

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004 Sparing Nature: The Conflict Between Human Population Growth and Earth’s Biodiversity By Jeffrey McKee Piscataway: Rutgers University Press, 2003. 210 pages.

Reviewed by ECKHARD KLEINAU

Does population growth pose a threat to the Eckhard Kleinau has 25 years of experi- survival of the human race, or will man’s inge- ence in medicine, public health, and nuity always outsmart nature and our finite environmental health, with an extensive resources? Should we heed the warnings that we background in quality management, are exceeding earth’s carrying capacity, like those in William Catton’s 1980 book Overshoot: operations research, monitoring and The Ecological Basis for Revolutionary Change; or evaluation, most recently as the senior instead listen to those, like Donald G. McNeil technical director of the USAID-funded (2004), who say that Malthus’ dire predictions Environmental Health Project. In addition have been discredited by reality? Jeffrey McKee’s to degrees in medicine from the new book, Sparing Nature: The Conflict Between Human Population Growth and Earth’s Eberhard-Karls University in Tübingen, Biodiversity, invites the reader to follow the trail Germany, he holds master’s degrees in of evidence, from the prehistoric era to the pres- epidemiology and health policy and ent, that reveals the impact of population on management and a doctoral degree in priceless ecosystems. Based on this evidence, public health from the Harvard School of McKee finds that population growth must be Public Health. curbed by “responsible reproduction” or we risk losing nature’s ability to support human life. Is nature “sparing” or must we “spare” According to Charles Darwin, the earth has nature? Both, argues McKee, outlining his three experienced five episodes of concentrated theses: first, nature’s resources are finite, limit- extinctions since life began 540 million years ing the number of species that will not suffer ago. Sparing Nature argues that we are facing a excess mortality and social disruption. Second, sixth period with a dramatically faster rate of McKee postulates that we must “spare nature” extinction. According to fossil finds, species by slowing or halting human population extinction increased considerably with the growth. Finally, he stresses that these problems advent of Homo erectus some 1.8 million years are urgent, because the health of our planet, ago. The appearance of Homo sapiens similarly and therefore our own survival, depends on accelerated the impact on nature; for example, conserving biological diversity. Homo sapiens’ arrival in North America about Sparing Nature proves its three theses using 15,000 years ago was followed closely by the clues left in the fossil record over hundreds of rapid extinction of other continental species. thousands of years. Like a detective, McKee McKee explores other reasons for species gathers circumstantial evidence by following extinction, such as rapid climate change, but no man’s ecological footprint through the cen- other cause proves to be as convincing as popu- turies, preparing a convincing case that links lation growth. Biodiversity took a major hit the loss of wild plants and animals and the when humans transitioned from foraging to increase in unsafe water and polluted air to the agriculture between 10,000-4,000 years ago. rapidly increasing population. Archeological artifacts indicate that population 95

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sources. Sparing Nature is easy to read and largely avoids academic language. The book’s simple illustrations are helpful, such as a drawing that compares species diversity in a neigh- borhood and a nature park. McKee’s real-life examples demystify some technical subjects; for example, he explains exponential population growth using the number of Elvis Presley impersonators. National Geographic or Nature subscribers will enjoy this book as much as readers of academic journals. While Sparing Nature provides informative and pleasant reading, a few sections are repeti- tive, and could have been replaced with more information on the links among population growth, social unrest, and violent conflict. McKee’s arguments are well-made, but he does not mention the social problems that might accompany a reduction in population growth, pressure led to poor agricultural practices that such as insufficient funds to provide social secu- depleted the soil, increased monocultures, and rity to an aging society. Unfortunately, sci- reduced biodiversity. The impact of large and Finally, making a case based largely on cir- ence does not tell fast-growing populations now extends far cumstantial evidence has its drawbacks. While beyond local environments. More and more McKee’s estimates of the rate of species loss are us the “right” pop- arable land is required to satisfy human needs; plausible, they rest on many assumptions and ulation size or the for example, worldwide demand for soybeans unknowns, such as the number of existing and now threatens the Amazon. extinct species. This leaves room for many other “right” level of Despite the claims that current growth rates scenarios, a flaw that McKee acknowledges. In biodiversity. McKee have slowed enough to ease worries, population addition, estimates of a “sustainable” popula- continues to increase because of the law of tion vary greatly. There is no way to know argues convincing- exponential growth. Even if growth rates could whether a smaller population may develop less ly, however, that be slowed to a small fraction, more people important technological advances, but they are would compete for ever scarcer resources. The likely to educate more children, improve fami- we cannot afford to demographic transition may provide one lies’ livelihoods, and prevent the starvation, double the world’s answer. As societies move from high birth and misery, and death of millions. death rates to low birth and death rates, popula- Unfortunately, science does not tell us the population within tions first grow, as the decline in birth rates lags “right” population size or the “right” level of this century. behind the drop in death rates, and then stabi- biodiversity. McKee argues convincingly, how- lize, as birth rates decline to equal the death ever, that we cannot afford to double the rates. But there is no guarantee that the world’s world’s population within this century. Reliable population will stabilize on its own. The conse- models that link population density and biodi- quences of being wrong would be disastrous, versity, such as the ones cited in Sparing Nature, McKee argues, advocating proactive measures predict a high rate of species loss unless effective such as better education, especially for girls and measures are taken now. Unlike other species, women, and greater access to contraceptives. humans have a choice. We can, and must, adopt To make his point, McKee employs an effec- responsible reproduction. tive cumulative style, hammering the reader The international community should heed 96 with ever-increasing data from a wealth of these important arguments. While the

ECSP REPORT • ISSUE 10 • 2004 Declaration on Environment and Development and environment issues, rather than focusing at Rio de Janeiro in 1992 and 1994’s on one or the other. It strengthens the argu- International Conference on Population and ments of those who believe that family plan- Development in Cairo encouraged curbing ning should be a choice for everybody, and it population growth, the United Nations may provoke conversation with those who feel Millennium Declaration in 2000 did not that the threat of population growth is include demographic trends and family plan- overblown. The debate will certainly continue, ning in the Millennium Development Goals. but thanks to Jeffrey McKee, it may be con- Similarly, the 2002 World Summit on ducted with better information. Sustainable Development in Johannesburg did not focus on the relationship among popula- References tion, unsustainable consumption, and environmental degradation. Sparing Nature is the right book at the right Catton, William. (1980) Overshoot: The ecological basis time. It reminds us that there is no safety in for revolutionary change. Urbana: University of numbers. Even if international declarations do Illinois Press. McNeil, Jr., Donald G. (2004, August 29). “The world not address the issue directly, we must put it on — Subtract billions; Demographic ‘bomb’ may the agenda. The book provides ample reasons only go ‘pop!’ ” The New York Times, section 4, for programs to integrate population, health, page 1.

Human Security Now: Protecting and Empowering People New York: Commission on Human Security, 2003. 159 pages.

Reviewed by WILLIAM H. MANSFIELD III

Robert Browning argued, “Ah, but a man’s William Mansfield is currently a senior reach should exceed his grasp, / Or what’s a advisor to the United Nations heaven for?” (“Andrea del Sarto”). But will Environment Programme (UNEP) work- humanity embrace a radical vision of security, ing in UNEP’s Regional Office for North even as we face new and frightening threats? Current concepts of security—largely domi- America in Washington, D.C. He has nated by the traditional state-centered view— served as a U.S. diplomat, assistant sec- are inadequate to meet the needs of our rapidly retary general of the United Nations, changing world, according to the independent and deputy executive director of UNEP. Commission on Human Security in its creative and succinct report, Human Security Now: Protecting and Empowering People. What is that end, the commission outlines a broad array required, the commission says, is a broader of recommendations for buttressing and imple- security framework that focuses not on states menting the human security framework. but on people. Security should shield people Launched at the 2000 UN Millennium from critical and pervasive threats while Summit, the Commission on Human Security empowering them to take charge of their lives. was co-chaired by former UN High It should create genuine opportunities to live in Commissioner for Refugees Sadako Ogata and safety and to earn a livelihood with dignity. To Nobel Prize-winning economist Amartya Sen. 97

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Commissioners included Lakhdar Brahimi, the affording special protection to women, chil- UN secretary-general’s special representative to dren, the elderly, and other vulnerable Afghanistan (and later, Iraq), and former U.S. groups victimized by war and civil strife; Secretary of Health and Human Services • Protect people on the move: aid refugees and Donna Shalala. internally-displaced persons (the newest and Dramatic world changes formed the back- most common victims) by developing a nor- drop for the commission’s work. In the previous mative framework and practical measures to 50 years, the world’s population exploded from align state interests with protecting immi- 2.5 billion to 6.2 billion, mostly in developing grants; countries, and the world’s economy grew seven- • Aid people in post-conflict situations: provide fold. The turn of the millennium witnessed ter- security and public services, help people Human Security rorist attacks, ethnic violence, an economic rebuild, and find new and innovative Now calls for a downturn, virulent epidemics, weakening mul- fundraising strategies for reconstruction (a tilateralism, increasing human rights violations, suggestion that U.S. planners might have new “people-cen- eroding commitments to poverty, outdated found valuable in Iraq); tered” human educational systems, and the international com- • Relieve economic insecurity: recognize the munity’s failure to effectively address many of important role of markets and free trade, but security framework the root causes of human insecurity at the balance economic growth with efforts to to address the con- national and international levels. address chronic poverty, ensure minimal liv- ditions and threats Assessing these changes and threats, Human ing standards, and provide social safety nets, Security Now claims that state security, which land, credit, and housing; humanity faces at emphasizes the integrity and robustness of the • Provide health: commit to universal health the start of the state, is outdated and no longer meets people’s care, community-based health initiatives, needs. Urgently calling for a new consensus, the primary health services, and national disease 21st century. While commission concludes that achieving human surveillance systems; and the intent is security requires twin efforts: protecting human • Furnish knowledge, skills, and values for rights and empowering people. Protection human security: achieve universal primary admirable, the shields people from dangers of all kinds and education and focus on educating girls, pro- report’s recommen- empowerment enables them to develop their tecting women from sexual violence, equip- potential and support themselves with dignity. ping people for democratic engagement, and dations are general The commission finds ample opportunities teaching mutual respect. exhortations, rather to promote this new concept in the globalizing economy, the rising support for democratic The commission features environmental than specific principles, the increasing power of civil society, sources of insecurity in the “Special issues in actions for govern- and the adoption of the Millennium human security” section. It cites environmental Development Goals. It applies the human secu- degradation as a source of food insecurity, and ments or organiza- rity framework to six of today’s most difficult describes how increasing freshwater scarcity esca- tions to perform. problems: violent conflict, migration, post-con- lates tensions among countries, rural and urban flict reconstruction, economic insecurity, health populations, upper and lower river basin occu- threats, and poor education. For each of these, pants, and agricultural, industrial, and domestic the commission recommends policies that, users. The section calls for protecting the planet’s through wide-ranging collaborations, consulta- natural resources, effectively implementing sus- tions, and outreach, could push the concept of tainable development, and improving the man- human security to the top of the global agenda: agement and use of natural resources. But these important steps do not make the commission’s • Protect people in violent conflict: promote final list of recommended actions. stronger mechanisms to protect civilians by Human Security Now calls for a new “people- 98 providing humanitarian assistance and centered” human security framework to address

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the conditions and threats humanity faces at the Network, the Canadian Consortium of start of the 21st century. While the intent is Human Security, and other national, regional, admirable, the report’s recommendations are and global alliances. To raise funds, it encour- general exhortations, rather than specific ages broadening the donor base of the UN actions for governments or organizations to Trust Fund for Human Security and the bilat- perform. Nor do they directly address many of eral Grassroots Human Security Grants, both the principal roots of today’s human insecurity: established by the Japanese government—not continuing population growth, massive rural- a reassuring long-term international funding to-urban migration, degradation of the natural source for this ambitious program. resource base, and the increasing gap between Overall, the commission’s embrace of the the world’s rich and poor. human security concept and effort to re-char- The commission’s proposals to develop acterize it are laudable. By seeking to adapt appropriate institutions and provide financial our ideas about security to our rapidly chang- resources do not provide much assurance that ing and globalizing world, it has delineated a its recommendations will be carried out suc- worthy, more encompassing, and certainly cessfully. It does not propose that an existing more individual (albeit Western) dimension to or new international body implement its augment the traditional concept. But whether work. Rather, it recommends establishing a its vision and recommendations can be suc- vague core group of involved states, interna- cessfully implemented—whether its reach tional organizations, and civil society, includ- exceeds mankind’s grasp—is still an open ing the 13-government Human Security question.

Water Security and Peace: A Synthesis of Studies Prepared Under the PCCP-Water for Peace Process Compiled by William J. Cosgrove Paris: United Nations Educational, Scientific, and Cultural Organization (UNESCO), 2003. 108 pages.

Reviewed by ANNIKA KRAMER

I was thrilled when I received the set of more Annika Kramer is a research fellow with than 20 publications produced by UNESCO’s Adelphi Research in Berlin, Germany. “From Potential Conflict to Cooperation She is the co-author of “Managing Potential” (PCCP) project.1 Finally, everything Water Conflict and Cooperation,” in you need to know about conflict and cooperation in international river basins in one pack- Worldwatch’s State of the World 2005. age! The series includes volumes on the history of water cooperation, international water law, systems analysis, alternative dispute resolution, ing literature on water, conflict, and coopera- and indicators of water conflict, along with tion has been dispersed among a wide range of eight case studies of river basins (the Aral Sea, journals, discussion papers, and books. A com- Columbia, Incomati, Jordan, Mekong, Nile, prehensive overview of the broad range of issues Rhine, and the Upper Lempa) and a training surrounding such an intriguing topic would be manual on participation, consensus building, an extremely valuable addition to the field. and conflict management. Until now, the grow- Ultimately, however, the structure of this series 99

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is quite confusing, and instead of being a virtue, world’s accelerating water crisis” (page 11) and the breadth of the series diminishes the value of that ethics is the “ideal and only long-term its contents. solution” (page 19). While this approach would Launched by UNESCO in 2001, the PCCP certainly be desirable, generating “a national program—together with the case studies on the discourse on water for peace and prosperity” Danube, Okavango, La Plata, Volga, and Volta and teaching “our children a system of moral river basins produced by Green Cross principles…based on shared fundamental International’s “Water for Peace” project— human values of justice and equity that will examines and promotes the potential of shared build this world of Water Peace” (page 23) is water resources to catalyze regional peace and not a very practical solution. development.2 The joint program follows a While the legal principles of international three-track approach: water law are sometimes difficult to apply, they do offer a framework for negotiations. Chapter • A disciplinary track examines historical 4, “Legal Approaches: A Sound Framework,” experiences and reviews legal, negotiation, draws on PCCP papers by Vinogradov, and system analysis tools for solving water- Wouters, and Jones (2003) and Shamir (2003) related conflicts; to provide a useful introduction to internation- • A case study track draws lessons from the al water law and alternative dispute resolution roots of transboundary water conflicts and mechanisms such as negotiation, mediation, from examples of successful water coopera- arbitration, and fact-finding. According to the tion; and chapter, whether international law and multi- • An educational track develops negotiation lateral agreements support sustainable water skills and management techniques for shared management and avoid water-related conflicts water resources. depends on local and national implementation. In their persuasive contribution to the series, In Water Security and Peace, World Water “Untying the ‘Knot of Silence’: Making Water Council President William J. Cosgrove synthe- Policy and Law Responsive to Local Normative sizes the 28 volumes produced by the project. Systems,” Pieter van der Zaag and Jennifer Summarizing the broad spectrum of PCCP Mohamed-Katerere question the efficiency of studies is a difficult undertaking, so it may not using the law to change water management in be the author’s fault that the report lacks a com- defined ways. Based on their analysis of mon thread. Beginning with an overview of the Zimbabwe’s newly reformed water law and history of water management, from the first other African case studies, the authors point out hunter-gatherers to Roman cities to today’s that “the impact of law—how it is lived and industries, Water Security and Peace clearly shows experienced—is determined by its strength vis- that water has always engendered competition, à-vis other value and rule systems, including and sometimes conflict. It also demonstrates social, cultural, economic, and implementation that human civilization has developed solutions systems, as well as its relationship to other insti- to address water shortages, but the increased tutions” (van der Zaag & Mohamed-Katerere, speed at which they emerge, due to ever-rising 2003, page 3). Policymakers and legislators, water demands or pollution levels, gives people therefore, should take into account the “nexus less time to adapt to new situations. between law and practice” and thus consider Drawing on Fekri A. Hassan’s contribution customary law (“the vibrant body of rules and to the PCCP series, “Water Management and principles that are flexible and constantly grow- Early Civilizations: From Cooperation to ing in response to a changing world”) when Conflict,” Cosgrove suggests that “only a return developing effective water law (pages 2-3). to fundamental human values of justice and Water for Peace’s seventh chapter, “Obstacles 100 equity will provide a sustainable solution to the to Cooperation,” lists challenges that can

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impede sustainable solutions to water management problems, including socio-economic political disturbances; poverty and socio-economic underdevelopment; insufficient information; and inequities in water allocation, knowledge, and military force. The water sector is plagued by weak institutions, which often lack democracy, political will, trained human capacity, and sufficient financial support. Although some of these obstacles, such as poor governance and changing social values, are widely recognized, Cosgrove argues that developing adequate responses will require further thought and debate. The fifth chapter, “Trends: Emerging Issues and Opportunities for Cooperation,” includes Aaron T. Wolf’s observations that the shift to less traditional sources of water (e.g., deep fossil aquifers, wastewater reclamation, and interbasin trans- fers) and the increase in internally-driven conflicts might require developing new responses to transboundary water conflict. Cosgrove “unilateral basin development in the absence of considers increased public participation to be a cooperative transboundary institution,” one of the most important emerging trends; which produces rapid physical change without Chapter 6 collects examples drawn from adequate institutional capacity (page 11). Using Green Cross International’s experiences to these indicators, Wolf and his co-authors iden- illustrate how NGOs foster cooperation and tify 17 international basins with the potential to help reach sustainable solutions to water man- develop disputes in the next 5 to 10 years, bas- agement problems. ing their assumptions on news reports, water- When can obstacles to cooperation lead to related treaties, and literature research. While conflict? “Indicators of Potential for this approach can locate basins in trouble, a Cooperation” builds on International Waters: more detailed on-site analysis could determine Indicators for Identifying Basins at Risk (Wolf, the actual risk of conflict and the most effective Yoffe, & Giardano, 2003), which finds no evi- way to foster cooperation in a specific basin. dence that the parameters typically named as Pal Tamas’s volume Water Resources Scarcity indicators of conflict (e.g., water scarcity, high and Conflict: Review of Applicable Indicators population density, low per capita GDP) actu- and Systems of Reference (2003) stresses the ally lead to violence. Instead, Wolf et al. identi- relationship between intrastate water tensions fy a combination of factors that together estab- and interstate conflicts, and emphasizes the lish a greater chance of hostility: “The likeli- importance of developing conflict resolution hood and intensity of dispute rises as the rate of capabilities and making incremental advances change within a basin exceeds the institutional in cooperation. Reviewing existing approaches capacity to absorb that change” (page 10). They to predicting conflict, like Clingendael’s find two situations that significantly increase Conflict and Policy Assessment Framework3 the risk of a water dispute: (1) the sudden and the Forum on Early Warning and Early “internationalization” of a basin, or its division Response (FEWER),4 Tamas proposes compil- between nations, such as followed the dissolu- ing water conflict indicators. His proposal, tion of empires like the Soviet Union, and (2) although not fully described, identifies some 101

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important components of water-related peace studies—the Rhine and the Aral Sea—to draw and conflict assessments. his conclusions). Another quibble: although it The final three chapters of Water Security does include a few familiar basins like the and Peace provide a rather unorganized collec- Incomati, the series mostly covers the usual sus- tion of lessons learned and recommendations. pects, such as the often-studied Rhine, Jordan, While they include some important points— Nile, Danube, Aral Sea, and Mekong basins. for example, implementing transboundary The entire series could have offered more cooperation requires coherent national water insights into “the intricate and interdependent policies—the chapters awkwardly jump from links between water, security, and peace,” as The water sector is one issue to the next, making for a difficult stated in a PCCP brochure (UNESCO & read. They do, however, reiterate the collection’s GCI, 2003, page 15), if it were better organ- plagued by weak main point: institutions are critical. ized. A more clearly arranged table of contents, institutions, which But what do effective institutions look alike? for example, would have made it easier to The third volume in the PCCP series, Institutions understand the topics covered in each volume. often lack democ- for International Freshwater Management, system- Due to these shortcomings, I believe the PCCP racy, political will, atically describes 19 institutions managing inter- series ultimately fails to fully achieve its noble national river basins, lakes, and aquifers (Burchi objective: to provide people from different dis- trained human & Spreij, 2003). Although it provides a valuable ciplines with a concise collection of back- capacity, and suffi- overview of different institutional designs, it does ground information, lessons learned, and tools not draw any conclusions about the actual func- to understand and enhance transboundary cient financial sup- tioning of these institutions, as it is based mainly water cooperation. port. on treaties, conventions, and agreements, and therefore has very little information on whether Notes the institutions have enough funds, human resources, and technical capacity to be effective. 1. See http://www.unesco.org/water/wwap/ Recognizing these limitations, Eric Mostert’s pccp/index.shtml for more information. well-structured desk study Conflict and Co-opera- 2. See http://webworld.unesco.org/water/wwap/ tion in the Management of International pccp/cd/case_studies.html to download the PCCP and the Green Cross International case studies. Freshwater Resources: A Global Review (2003) 3. Clingendael is the Netherlands Institute of examines 23 international freshwater resources International Relations; see http://www.clingendael.nl/ and concludes that “well-designed institutions for more information. deliver positive effects” and intergovernmental 4. The FEWER network, now defunct, was an commissions can promote cooperation. His list of independent global network of organizations commit- ted to preventing conflict by providing early warning. 54 lessons includes recommendations for effective institutional design and appropriate negotiation processes. He acknowledges that some of References these lessons lack supporting case study evidence and recommends that further research examine Burchi, Stefano & Spreij, Melvin (2003). Institutions for international freshwater management (PCCP the effectiveness of individual institutions. Series No. 3). Paris: UNESCO. I hoped that the PCCP case studies would Hassan, Fekri A. (2003). “Water management and provide this empirical evidence, but unfortu- early civilizations: From cooperation to conflict.” In nately, each focuses on a different aspect of F.A. Hassan, Martin Reuss, Julie Trottier, Christoph cooperation, thus preventing cross-basin com- Bernhardt, Aaron T. Wolf, Jennifer Mohamed- parisons. The PCCP series could have con- Katerere, & Pieter van der Zaag (Eds.), History and future of shared water resources (PCCP Series No. 6). tributed greatly to the field if it had used a com- Paris: UNESCO. mon organizing principle like Mostert’s theoret- Mostert, Eric. (2003). Conflict and cooperation in the ical framework for the case studies (interesting- management of international freshwater resources: A 102 ly, Mostert uses only two of the PCCP case global review (PCCP Series No. 19). Paris:

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UNESCO. future of shared water resources (PCCP Series No. 6). Shamir, Yona. (2003). Alternative dispute resolution Paris: UNESCO. approaches and their application. (PCCP Series No. Vinogradov, Sergei, Patricia Wouters, & Patricia Jones. 7). Paris: UNESCO. (2003). Transforming potential conflict into coopera- Tamas, Pal. (2003). Water resources scarcity and conflict: tion potential: The role of international water (PCCP Review of applicable indicators and systems of refer- Series No. 2). Paris: UNESCO. ence (PCCP Series No. 21). Paris: UNESCO. Wolf, Aaron T. (2003). “Conflict and cooperation: UNESCO & GCI. (2003). From potential conflict to co- Survey of the past and reflection for the future.” In operation potential: Water for peace- Prevention and res- F.A. Hassan et al. (Eds.), History and future of olution of water related conflicts [Program Brochure]. shared water resources (PCCP Series No. 6). Paris: Paris: UNESCO and Green Cross International. UNESCO. van der Zaag, Pieter & Jennifer Mohamed-Katerere. Wolf, Aaron T., Shira B. Yoffe, & Mark Giordano. (2003). “Untying the ‘knot of silence’: Making (2003). International waters: Indicators for identify- water policy and law responsive to local normative ing Basins at Risk (PCCP Series No. 20). Paris: systems.” In F.A. Hassan, et al. (Eds.), History and UNESCO.

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dotPOP

Online resources for population data Compiled by JENNIFER WISNEWSKI KACZOR

2004 Report on the Global AIDS Epidemic UNAIDS http://www.unaids.org/bangkok2004/report.html

UNAIDS lists its most recent estimates of HIV-prevalence rates, country by country. The report also addresses the impact of AIDS globally, nationally, and locally; HIV prevention; the treatment, care, and support of people living with HIV/AIDS; financing the response to AIDS; and national efforts to fight AIDS.

Human Development Report 2004: Cultural Liberty in Today’s Diverse World UN Development Programme (UNDP) http://hdr.undp.org

UNDP provides statistical tables of country-by-country development indicators. The 2004 edition quantifies cultural exclusion through the “Minorities at Risk” dataset and examines policies affecting cultural diversity and globalization, including traditional knowledge, trade in cultural goods, and migration.

Trends in Total Migrant Stock: The 2003 Revision UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA) Population Division http://www.un.org/esa/population/unpop.htm

UNDESA offers new estimates of the number of foreign immigrants living in each country or area of the world as of July 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000; the estimates are also broken down by sex.

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World Population Policies, 2004 UNDESA Population Division http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wpp2003/Publication_index.htm

This publication illustrates the evolution of national governments’ views and policies regarding population size and growth, population age structure, fertility and family planning, health and mortality, spatial distribution, and international migration, from 1976 to 2003.

World Urbanization Prospects: the 2003 Revision UNDESA Population Division http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/wup2003/2003WUP.htm

This revision estimates and projects the urban and rural populations of the world’s 5 major areas, 21 regions, and 228 countries, from 1950-2030.

Signposts 2004 Worldwatch Institute http://www.worldwatch.org/pubs/signposts/

More than 50 years and 238 datasets of environmental, economic, and social indicators are presented in multiple formats, including PowerPoint slides, Excel files, HTML pages, and Worldwatch publications.

The State of World Population 2004 United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) http://www.unfpa.org/swp/2004/english/ch1/index.htm

UNFPA’s annual report includes socio-economic indicators and demographic data for both developed and developing countries, along with health, education, and reproductive health indicators used to monitor progress on the International Conference on Population and Development goals.

Please visit http://www.wilsoncenter.org/ecsp for more population, environment, and security links.

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dotPOP WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS Lee H. Hamilton, Director

Board of Trustees Joseph B. Gildenhorn, Chair; David A. Metzner, Vice Chair. Public Members: James H. Billington, Librarian of Congress; John W. Carlin, Archivist of the United States; Bruce Cole, Chair, National Endowment for the Humanities; Roderick R. Paige, Secretary, U.S. Department of Education; Colin L. Powell, Secretary, U.S. Department of State; Lawrence M. Small, Secretary, Smithsonian Institution; Tommy G. Thompson, Secretary, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services; Peter S. Watson, President and CEO, OPIC. Private Citizen Members: Joseph A. Cari, Jr., Carol Cartwright, Robert B. Cook, Donald E. Garcia, Bruce S. Gelb, Charles L. Glazer, Tamala L. Longaberger

Wilson Council Bruce S. Gelb, President. Elias F. Aburdene, Jennifer Acker, Charles S. Ackerman, B.B. Andersen, Russell Anmuth, Cyrus A. Ansary, Lawrence E. Bathgate II, Theresa Behrendt, John B. Beinecke, Joseph C. Bell, Esq., Steven A. Bennett, Rudy Boschwitz, A. Oakley Brooks, Donald A. Brown, Melva Bucksbaum, Richard I. Burnham, Nicola L. Caiola, Mark Chandler, Peter B. Clark, Melvin Cohen, David M. Crawford, Jr., Melvin Cohen, William T. Coleman, Jr., David M. Crawford, Jr. , Michael D. DiGiacomo, Beth Dozoretz, Elizabeth Dubin, F. Samuel Eberts III, I. Steven Edelson, Mark Epstein, Melvyn J. Estrin, Sim Farar, Susan R. Farber, A. Huda Farouki, Julie Finley, Roger Felberbaum, Joseph H. Flom, Esq., John H. Foster, Charles Fox, Barbara Hackman Franklin, Norman Freidkin, John H. French, II, Morton Funger, Gregory M. Gallo, Chris G. Gardiner, CPA, Bernard S. Gewirz, Gordon D. Giffin, Steven J. Gilbert, Alma Gildenhorn, David F. Girard-diCarlo, Esq., Michael B. Goldberg, Roy Goodman, Gretchen Meister Gorog, William E. Grayson, Ronald Greenberg, Raymond A. Guenter, Cheryl F. Halpern, Edward L. Hardin, Jr., John L. Howard, Darrell E. Issa, Benjamin Jacobs, Jerry Jasinowski, Brenda LaGrange Johnson, Shelly Kamins, James M. Kaufman, Edward W. Kelley, Jr., Anastasia D. Kelly, Christopher J. Kennan, Willem Kookyer, Steven Kotler, William H. Kremer, Raymond Learsy, Dennis A. LeVett, Francine Gordon Levinson, Harold O. Levy, Frederic V. Malek, David S. Mandel, Esq., John P. Manning, Jeffrey A. Marcus, John Mason, Jay Mazur, Robert McCarthy, Esq., Linda McCausland, Stephen G. McConahey, Donald F. McLellan, Charles McVean, J. Kenneth Menges, Jr., Kathryn Mosbacher, Jeremiah L. Murphy, Martha T. Muse, John E. Osborn, Paul Hae Park, Gerald L. Parsky, Jeanne L. Phillips, Michael J. Polenske, Rob Quartel, Jr., John L. Richardson, Esq., Margaret Milner Richardson, Larry D. Richman, Carlyn Ring, Edwin Robbins, Robert G. Rogers, Juan A. Sabater, Alan M. Schwartz, Timothy R. Scully, C.S.C., J. Michael Sheperd, George P. Shultz, Raja W. Sidawi, Kenneth Siegel, Ron Silver, William A. Slaughter, James H. Small, Shawn Smeallie, Gordon V. Smith, Thomas F. Stephenson, Norma Kline Tiefel, Mark C. Treanor, Anthony G. Viscogliosi, Christine M. Warnke, Ruth Westheimer, Pete Wilson, Deborah Wince-Smith, Herbert S. Winokur, Jr., Paul Martin Wolff, Joseph Zappala, Richard S. Ziman, Nancy M. Zirkin

About the Center The Center is the living memorial of the United States of America to the nation’s twenty-eighth president, Woodrow Wilson. Congress established the Woodrow Wilson Center in 1968 as an international institute for advanced study, “symbolizing and strengthening the fruitful relationship between the world of learning and the world of public affairs.” The Center opened in 1970 under its own board of trustees. In all its activities the Woodrow Wilson Center is a nonprofit, nonpartisan organization, supported financially by annual appropriations from Congress, and by the contributions of foundations, corporations, and individuals. Conclusions or opinions expressed in Center publications and programs are those of the authors and speakers and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Center staff, fellows, trustees, advisory groups, or any individuals or organizations that provide financial support to the Center. The University of Michigan Population Fellows Programs

This publication is made possible through support provided by the Office of Population, U.S. Agency for International Development, and the University of Michigan, under the terms of Grant No. HRN-A-00-00- 00001. The opinions expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Agency for International Development, the University of Michigan, or the Woodrow Wilson Center.

Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW Washington, DC 20004 Tel. (202) 691-4130 Fax (202) 691-4184 www.wilsoncenter.org/ecsp

ISBN: 0-9745919-1-2