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Biodiversity and Business Risk a Global Risks Network Briefing World Economic Forum January 2010 Biodiversity and business risk A Global Risks Network briefing World Economic Forum January 2010 A briefing paper for participants engaged in biodiversity related discussions at the World Economic Forum Davos-Klosters Annual Meeting Prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers for the World Economic Forum 2 Biodiversity and business risk This report was prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) for the specific use of the World Economic Forum and is not to be used, distributed or relied upon by any third party without PwC’s prior written consent. The analysis and opinions contained in this presentation are based on publicly available sources and PwC has not independently verified this information and makes no representation or warranty, express or implied, that such information is accurate or complete. All recipients of this report must make their own independent assessment of the report, and neither PwC nor any of its affiliates, partners, officers, employees, agents or advisers shall be liable for any direct, indirect or consequential loss or damage suffered by any person as a result of relying on any statement in, or alleged omission from, this report. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect those of the World Economic Forum, PricewaterhouseCoopers or the contributing companies or organizations. World Economic Forum 91-93 route de la Capite CH-1223 Cologny/Geneva Switzerland Tel.: +41 (0)22 869 1212 Fax: +41 (0)22 786 2744 E-mail: [email protected] www.weforum.org © 2010 World Economic Forum. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying and recording,World Economic or by anyForum information – January storage 2010 and retrieval system. Biodiversity and business risk 1 Contents Overview 2 Biodiversity loss at the nexus of many risks 3 Biodiversity loss and economic value 5 Current perceptions of biodiversity loss 6 A typology of biodiversity risks 8 A case study of biodiversity loss and agricultural supply chains 10 Biodiversity and business over the next decade 12 Managing biodiversity risk 14 Acronyms 16 Acknowledgements 16 References 16 “ Biodiversity underpins ecosystem services. Bees can’t pollinate, nor can trees store carbon, if they have all died. … Diverse systems are better at capturing carbon, storing water and preserving fisheries. Just how diverse an ecosystem has to be in order to supply the goods and services needed by man is a matter of debate - a debate made harder by the fact that many species may have uses that man has not yet found.” The Economist, 2008 World Economic Forum – January 2010 2 Biodiversity and business risk Overview While this paper focuses on risk, it should be remembered “ Global warming may dominate headlines today. that where there are risks there are also opportunities; with Ecosystem degradation will do so tomorrow.” new trading mechanisms and markets, new technologies Corporate Ecosystem Services Review, World Resources Institute and design approaches, and improved land-use models, et al., 2008 a new green economy presents a myriad of new areas for businesses to create value. In the summer of 2010, the international study The Economics of Ecosystems and To understand why this conclusion was reached consider Biodiversity (TEEB) will release a report aimed specifically the figures. Using the implied social cost of carbon from the at the business sector to help them understand and take Stern report ($85 per tonne CO2), the long run economic cost advantage of this change. of 2008 net greenhouse gas emissions could be in the region of $1.7trillion*. For the same year, the economic cost of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation was estimated to be between US$2 and US$4.5 trillion† (3.3 – 7.5% of global Some key definitions GDP). While these numbers are not directly comparable, the Biodiversity: the variability among living organisms fact that they are in the same order of magnitude should give within species, between species, and between pause for thought. ecosystems. Biodiversity underpins the proper functioning of ecosystems and ensures the delivery of To date discussions on biodiversity loss have focused on ecosystem services. specifics such as coral reef degradation, deforestation or declining fish stocks. All of these are of concern to particular Ecosystem: a dynamic complex of plant, animal and industries or regions. Recently, the broad systemic implications micro-organism communities and their non-living of biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation linking to environment interacting as a functional unit. Examples resource management, climate change and population growth of ecosystems include deserts, coral reefs, wetlands, have been more explicitly articulated. This briefing paper will rain forests, boreal forests, grasslands, urban parks and explore both specific and broader systemic effects and the cultivated farmlands. Ecosystems can be relatively associated business risks. undisturbed by people, such as virgin rain forests, or can be modified by human activity, such as farms. This paper includes: • A summary of the systemic nature of biodiversity loss and Ecosystem services: sometimes called ‘environmental ecosystem degradation; services’ or ‘ecological services’ - are the benefits that people and economies obtain from ecosystems. • Examples of biodiversity loss, ecosystem degradation and Examples include fresh water, timber and fisheries, the associated value at risk; genetic resources, climate regulation, protection from natural hazards, erosion control and recreation. • Current perceptions of biodiversity loss amongst business leaders and other decision makers; Biodiversity risk: In this paper we use the term ‘biodiversity risk’ to refer to business risks related to • A typology of business risks related to biodiversity loss and biodiversity in the broadest sense. This includes risks ecosystem degradation including current examples and a as a result of direct impacts or dependencies on case study looking at agricultural supply chains; and biodiversity and ecosystem services, as well as regulatory, financing, reputational and supply chain • A high level guide for CEOs seeking to protect their risks that arise due to business’s relationships with businesses from the risks identified, pointing to a number biodiversity and ecosystems (page 8 includes a of initiatives and resources that can help. number of illustrative examples). * Source: STERN REVIEW: The Economics of Climate Change and PwC analysis. $1.7 trillion is the lifetime cost of net CO2 emissions from 2008 (20.09 Giga tonnes CO2) using Stern’s implied social cost of carbon ($85) which amongst other things assumes a business as usual emissions scenario and a discount rate of between 2 and 3%. † Source: The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB), Cost of Policy Inaction Report, 2008. $2 - $4.5 trillion is the present value of net ecosystem service losses from land based ecosystems (e.g. forests, tundra, cultivated land) caused in 2008 and continuing for 50 years, based on discount rates ranging from 1 – 4%. World Economic Forum – January 2010 Biodiversity and business risk 3 Biodiversity loss at the nexus of many risks Figure 1 Figure 1 sets out some of the interconnections between biodiversity loss and other global risks as identified by the Biodiversity loss at the nexus of many risks Global Risk Network of the World Economic Forum1. As the figure shows biodiversity loss is connected to a number of other risks with estimated severities in dollar terms ranging Infectious disease Liability from tens of billions for inland flooding and infectious disease, regimes to many hundreds of billions for food price volatility and Chronic disease chronic disease. Global Air governance pollution gaps Migration It is widely accepted that major social and economic trends CII contribute to biodiversity loss, but equally, as the examples breakdown below demonstrate, biodiversity loss and ecosystem NatCat: degradation exacerbate and amplify other observed risks. Inland flooding Retrenchment Biodiversity from loss globalisation (developed) Coastal flooding NatCat: Coastal Slowing flooding Chinese The removal of key costal ecosystems often increases the economy (<6%) severity of coastal flooding. Coastal features such as coral Water scarcity reefs, inter-tidal mudflats, vegetated coastal dunes and Retrenchment mangrove forests create effective buffers against natural from Extreme globalisation Food price disasters, storms, and coastal erosion. weather (emerging) volatility Droughts and desertification For example, a 28% reduction in mangrove cover between NatCat: 2 Cyclone 1980 and 2000 in South East Asia to make way for commercial shrimp farming has contributed to a loss of natural protection against tsunamis and cyclones. This was Economics Geopolitics Environment Society Technology tragically demonstrated during the 2004 South Asian Tsunami, Severity (billion US$) Likelihood (%) when coastal areas still covered by mangroves were relatively less affected, with mangroves acting as a natural defence3. 10 50 250 1000 1 5 10 20 In addition to their vital role in coastal protection, these costal features are critical for many marine food chains, comprising Source: World Economic Forum, Global Risks 2010 report vital nursery areas and habitats for commercially valuable fish and shellfish species. As we look to the future, with the prevalence of denser populations in coastal areas, the human and economic costs of damage
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