DOCSLIB.ORG

Morning Research Focus Table of Contents 目录

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Morning Research Focus Table of Contents 目录 Research Department Morning Research Focus 23 November 2015 Table of Contents 目录 Weekly Overview and Trading Focus 上周回顾和本周交易提示 Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点 Youku Tudou (YOKU US): 3Q15 Results in line 优酷土豆 (YOKU US): 3Q15 业绩基本符合预期 Latest Reports 最新报告摘要 EPS Est. Company Name Code Title TP Chg Rating Chg Change? 公司名称 代码 标题 目标价 变动 评级 变动 盈利预测 是否改变 Eyes on Overseas Opportunities, CMHI 00144 HK HK$35.00 ↓ Buy -- Y Maintain ‘Buy’ 招商局国际 00144 HK 关注海外机会，维持 “买入 ” HK$35.00 ↓ 买入 -- 是 JD.com Inc JD US 3Q15 Results in line, ‘Neutral’ US$30.00 -- Neutral -- Y 京东 JD US 3Q15 业绩符合预期，“中性” US$30.00 -- 中性 -- 是 Increasing Investment in Powerlong Real 01238 HK Commercial Properties, Upgrade HK$2.30 ↑ Buy ↑ Y Estate to “Buy” 逐步加大商业地产的投资，调高评级 宝龙地产 01238 HK HK$2.30 ↑ 买入 ↑ 是 至“买入” Appendices：Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附：行业和公司焦点，最新报告摘要中文版。 HSI Performance HSCEI Performance 29,000 16,000 27,000 14,000 25,000 23,000 12,000 21,000 10,000 19,000 17,000 8,000 Nov/14 Feb/15 May/15 Aug/15 Nov/15 Nov/14 Feb/15 May/15 Aug /15 Nov/15 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 8 Weekly Overview and Trading Focus (Jason Song) 上周回顾和本周交易提示（宋然） Overview of last week 上周回顾 HK market rebounded last week, with HSI up 1.6% wow to 22,754 and HSCEI up 1.2% wow to 10,302. For the first ten months of the year, the year-on-year decrease of SOE’s profits expanded to 9.8%. President Xi Jinping said to accelerate the development of Asia-Pacific free trade zone, and expected Asian Infrastructural Investment Bank to be established by the end of the year. Total social power consumption declined 0.2% yoy in October. The NDRC approved railway investment of RMB33.4 billion. According to the Vice President of the CSRC, the commission will promote the mutual recognition of funds between China and Hong Kong and continue to promote Shenzhen-HK Stock Connect. PBoC injected RMB10 billion liquidity into the financial system via open market last week. Short-term Shibor slightly increased. Spot exchange rate of Renminbi against U.S. dollar decreased 105 bps last week. According to the FOMC meeting minutes, most Fed officials were open to December interest-rate hike. The dollar index increased 0.2% wow to 99.231. U.S. market rebounded with S&P 500 up 3.3% wow to 2,089 and Dow Jones Industrial up 3.4% wow to 17,824. 港股上周反弹，恒指全周累计升 1.6%至 22,754 点，国指累计升 1.2%至 10,302 点。前 10 月国企利润同比降幅扩大至 9.8%。 习近平表示要加快亚太自由贸易区建设，预计亚投行将于年底前正式成立。10 月份，全社会用电量同比下降 0.2%。发改委批 复铁路投资项目 334 亿元。中国证监会副主席表示，未来将推动内地与香港基金互认，继续推动深港通。银行上周公开市场 净投放人民币 100 亿元流动性，短期 Shibor 轻微回升。人民币对美元即期汇率上周下降 105 个基点。美联储会议纪要表明， 几乎所有重要央行成员都对 12 月加息持开放态度。美元指数周环比上升 0.2%至 99.231。美股反弹，标准普尔 500 指数全周 累计升 3.3%至 2,089 点，道琼斯指数全周累计升 3.4%至 17,824 点。 Trading focus of this week 本周交易提示 Key economic data and events Date Country Data / events Market Consensus Previous Value Change November-23 U.S. October Existing Home Sales 5.40 5.60 (3.6%) (mn) November-24 U.S. 3Q2015 GDP QoQ Second 2.0% 1.5% 0.5 ppts Estimate November-24 U.S. October New Home Sales 500 468 6.8% ('000) November-25 U.S. October Durable Goods Orders 1.5% (1.2%) 2.7 ppts MoM November-25 U.S. September S&P 20 City Home 0.6% 0.1% 0.5 ppts Price YoY Note: All the forecasts in the above table are based on market consensus from Bloomberg. 重要经济数据和事件 日期 国家 数据 / 事件 市场一致预期 前值 变化 11 月 23 日 美国 10 月年化成屋销售量（百万套） 5.40 5.60 (3.6%) 11 月 24 日 美国 2015 年 3 季度 GDP 第二次预测 2.0% 1.5% 0.5 ppts （环比） 11 月 24 日 美国 10 月年化新建住宅销售量（千套） 500 468 6.8% 11 月 25 日 美国 10 月耐用品订单（环比） 1.5% (1.2%) 2.7 ppts 11 月 25 日 美国 9 月标普 20 大城市房价指数（同 0.6% 0.1% 0.5 ppts 比） 注：上表中所有预测都基于彭博的市场一致预期。 Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 8 Industry and Company Focus Youku Tudou (YOKU US): 3Q15 Results in line Analyst: Ray Zhao What happened: The Company posted 3Q15 results. Key Fundamentals are as following: 3Q15 (RMB) yoy% 1-3Q15 yoy% Revenue 1,854.8mn +62.3% 4,604.0mn 56.5% Non GAAP Loss 316.5mn +184.5% 1,295.0mn 151.0% Non GAAP Loss per 1.62 +201.5% 5.24 178.8% ADR Source: the Company. Comments and views: Youku posted 3Q15 results basically in line. Non GAAP net profit was below market consensus but revenue slightly beat market consensus. Ad revenue reached RMB1349.7mn, up 37% yoy, slightly below expectations. Consumer revenue reached RMB256.2mn, up 514% yoy, mainly due to membership and interactive videos. Content cost accounted for 56.8% of total revenue, up 1.9ppt yoy. In the short run, content cost pressure was still huge and the only way to maintain high revenue growth and mobile traffic is to increase content cost. We believe Alibaba Group need to integrate Youku and Weibo to create more synergy in next 1~2 years. Youku’s short video stream will rely on Weibo’s social media traffic very much in the long run. Investment suggestion: The 3Q15 results were basically in line expectations. Youku might delist soon to become a key part of Ailbaba Group media segment. Latest Reports CMHI (00144 HK): Eyes on Overseas Opportunities, Maintain ‘Buy’ Rating: Buy 6-18m TP: HK$35.00 Analyst: Ivan Zhou Report Date: 2015-11-20 Summary For the first ten months of2015, total throughput of CMHI ports was 69.4million TEUs, up 3.3% yoy.Due to the weak import and export data of China, throughput growth of the Company’s ports in mainland China has been lower. On the other hand, throughput of Company’s overseas terminals grew by 14.8% yoy to 12.7 million TEUs for the first ten months in 2015. CMHI together with COSCO Pacific (1199 HK) and CIC Capital Corporation have acquired 65% of equity of Kumport.Total consideration was US$940 million and CMHI’s portion (40%) was US$376 million. Kumport is located inIstanbuland is the third largest container terminal in Turkey.Contribution of the acquisition to CMHI’s net profit is expected to be less than 1% in FY15 and approx. 3% in FY16. We expect the contribution from the Company’s overseas terminals will substantially grow. However, China’s exports growth is expected to be weak and so as the terminal throughput in China. Overall, we slightly revise down net profit estimates by 2.8%, 4.4% and 5.2% in FY15-FY17, respectively. “One Belt, One Road” strategy will benefit the Company in the long term and will be in favor of the valuation of port companies. Considering the positive outlook of the fundamentals and leading position of the Company among its peers, current valuation of the Company is attractive. We maintain investment rating of ‘Buy’ but revise down TP to HK$35.00 to reflect the slightly downward revising of earnings estimates. Our TP represents 20.5x, 18.3x Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 8 and 16.6x FY15-FY17 PER, or 1.3x FY15 P/B ratio. JD.com Inc (JD US): 3Q15 Results in line, ‘Neutral’ Rating: Neutral 6-18m TP: US$30.00 Analyst: Ray Zhao Report Date: 2015-11-20 Summary Jingdong (JD)'s 3Q15 results were basically in line. In 3Q15, JD’s GMV reached RMB115.0bn, up 70.9% YoY, in which direct sales GMV reached RMB61.3bn, up 51.4% YoY, or down 5.3% qoq; marketplace GMV reached RMB53.7bn, up 100.4% YoY, or up 7.8% qoq. Orders reached 330mn, up 7.8% YoY, in which mobile orders accounted for 52% of total orders, up 5 ppt qoq. Revenue reached RMB44.1 bn, up 52.0% yoy. Non GAAP net profit reached RMB23mn. Key points: 1) Strong GMV but slightly lost market share.Gross margin reached 13.8%, up 0.8 ppt qoq. GMV market share reached 12.2%, down 0.7 ppt qoq. 2) Tencent’s strong mobile traffic brought JD lots of new buyers. Annual active buyers reached 132mn, up 68.2% YoY. 3) Cultivate new business. Currently, JD Home and JD Finance might increase expenses ratio. Loan receivables reached RMB1.6bn. Maintain Target Price at USD30.00 and investment rating is ‘Neutral’. As China's E-commerce growth is slowing down and market competition might become more intensified, JD might stay at breakeven for at least 2~3 years. Our FY15-17 non GAAP net loss forecasts are RMB342mn, RMB277mn, and RMB274mn. Our TP is set at USD30.00, representing 1.0x 2016E PS and 0.7x 2017E PS. Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK): Increasing Investment in Commercial Properties, Upgrade to “Buy” Rating: Buy 6-18m TP: HK$2.30 Analyst: Van Liu / Gary wong Report Date: 2015-11-20 Summary According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China (“NBS”), from Jan. to Oct. 2015, the cumulative GFA sold of commodity houses amounted to 949.0 million sq.m, up 7.2% YoY, which decreased by 0.3 ppts compared with that of Jan. to Sept. 2015.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Comments on SZ-HK Connect: Another Milestone for MMA 深港通评论：互联互通的又一里程碑事件
    Research Department 17 August, 2016 Shirley Gu 古乔艺 Gary Ching 程嘉伟 Grace Liu 刘谷 (86755) 2397 6718 (852) 2509 2665 (852) 2509 7516 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Comments on SZ-HK Connect: Another Milestone for MMA 深港通评论：互联互通的又一里程碑事件 Regulators announced Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect (SZ-HK Connect) Scheme. Chinese Premier Li Keqiang announced that the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect plan had been approved by the Chinese government on 16 August 2016. On the same day, China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) and Hong Kong’s Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) made a joint statement regarding the establishment of mutual market access (MMA) between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. The existing aggregate quota under the SH-HK Connect has been removed with immediate effect. According to the joint statement, the official launch of SZ-HK Connect is expected to be in 4 months time. Further details are as follows: 监管部门宣布深港通。中国国务院总理李克强在 8 月 16 日宣布，《深港通实施方案》已或得国务院批准。同日，中国 证监会及香港证监会联合发表关于建立深圳和香港互联互通的公告。即日起沪港通总额度取消，根据联合公告，深港 通正式推出时间预期由即日起计约 4 个月。其他细节如下： Details Shenzhen Southbound - All Hang Seng Composite LargeCap Index and Hang Seng Composite MidCap Index constituents. Connect - Any Hang Seng Composite SmallCap Index constituents with a market capitalisation of HK$5 billion or above - All SEHK-listed A+H shares - Daily Northbound quota: RMB10.5 billion - The investment quota may be adjusted by the parties in light of actual operational performance Shenzhen Northbound - All SZSE Component Index and SZSE Small/MidCap
    [Show full text]
  • Novinky Asijského Filmu
    Přehled asijské kinematografie, sezóna 2016/17 v j. a v. Asii, Filmy a TV seriály Skryté perly roku 2016 If Cats Disappeared from World Cold War 2 Super Express I Belonged to You Crosscurrent Mirzya The New Year‘s Eve of Old Lee If Cats Disappeared from World Režie: Akira Nagai Minutáž: 103 minut Žánr: drama, fantasy, indie Hrají: Takeru Sató, Aoi Mijazaki, Gaku Hamada, Eidži Okuda, Mieko Harada, Eita Okuno a další http://asianwiki.com/If_Cats_Disappeared_From_the_World Film určitě není pro naprosté začátečníky s japonskou, nebo asijskou kinematografií, představte si, že Vám zbývá strašlivě málo života a ďábel Vám nabídne nějaký čas navíc. Jenže musíte obětovat věci, nebo lidi. Jak by vypadal svět bez koček, filmů? Meditativní film plný odkazů na japonské indie filmy a klasiky let 90.tých, nefalšovaný doják, který určitě není pro každého. Nad mnoha svými žánrovými souptníky má však film výhodu v tom, že působí autenticky a doslova dýchá svojí atmosférou a životem. Cold War II Režie: Sunny Luk, Longman Leung Minutáž: 110 minut Žánr: krimi, akční Hrají: Aaron Kwok, Tony Leung Ka-fai, Yun fat Chow, Aarif Rahman, Eddie Peng, Charlie Yeung, Janice Man a další https://www.csfd.cz/film/79116-hon-zin-2/komentare/ Kasovní trhák Cold War se dočkal Jediné co může zamrzet, je nevyužití postavy svého pokračování, Hong Kong dodal Charlie Yeung, která je zde spíše na okrasu a opět kvalitní kriminálku, která má nemá žádný prostor něco ukázat. Uvidíte velmi solidní herecké výkony hong kongské oproti prvnímu dílu solidnější scénář. elity a tchaj-wanské star Eddie Penga. Tvůrci Téma boje o moc v policejním vedení rozpumpovali peněženky diváků opět Pokračuje, tentokrát nečekaně ve solidně, takže v roce 2019 můžeme očekávat filmu urve velký prostor nová třetí díl.
    [Show full text]
  • From the Past
    G reater B ay A rea Blast from the Past Snapshots of a China Gone Past Follow 城市漫步 Us on WeChat 粤港澳大 Now 湾区英文 版 9 月份 : 国内统一刊号CN 11-5234/GO China Intercontinental Press Advertising Hotline 400 633 8308 that's guangzhou SEPTEMBER 2020 that's shenzhen AD AD AD WWW.THATSMAGS.COM | SEPTEMBER 2020 | 1 《城市漫步》 粤港澳大湾区 英文月刊 主管单位 : 中华人民共和国国务院新闻办公室 Supervised by the State Council Information Office of the People’s Republic of China 主办单位 : 五洲传播出版社 地址 : 北京西城月坛北街 26 号恒华国际商务中心南楼 11 层文化交流中心 11th Floor South Building, Henghua lnternational Business Center, 26 Yuetan North Street, Xicheng District, Beijing http://www.cicc.org.cn 社长 President: 董青 Dong Qing 期刊部负责人 Supervisor of Magazine Department: 付平 Fu Ping 编辑 Editor: 朱莉莉 Zhu Lili 发行 Circulation: 李若琳 Li Ruolin Editor-in-Chief Ryan Gandolfo 甘德发 Arts and Lifestyle Editor Phoebe Kut 吉蓁蓁 Contributors Rakini Bergundy, Matthew Bossons, Joshua Cawthorpe, Bruce Connolly, Larold Davidson, Dale Dolson, Tom Glover, Lindsey Fine, Doris Kee, Dr. Stephen Misch JY INTERNATIONAL CULTURAL COMMUNICATION Guangzhou 广州均盈国际文化传播有限公司 广州市麓苑路 42 号大院 2 号楼 610 室 邮政编码 : 510095 Rm 610, No. 2 Building, Area 42, Luyuan Lu, Guangzhou. Post Code: 510095 电话 : 020-8358 6125 传真 : 020-8357 3859 - 816 Shanghai 上海广告代理 电话 ：021-6541 6111 Shenzhen 深圳广告代理 电话 : 0755-3665 4903 Beijing 北京广告代理 电话 : 010-8639 4209 General Manager Henry Zeng 曾庆庆 National Editorial Director Ned Kelly Operations Manager Rachel Tong 童日红 Finance Assistant Sunnie Lü 吕敏瑜 Senior Designer Felix Chen 陈引全 Sales Managers Tina Zhou 周杨， Emma Cao 曹艺凡 National Sales Projects Supervisor Wesley Zhang 张炜 Sales and Advertising Linda Chen 陈璟琳 , Celia Chen 陈琳 , Betty Wang 王斌然 , Rason Wu 伍瑞鑫， Kathy Chen 陈燕筠，Alice Zeng 曾爱淳，Vince Jiao 焦东东，Anita Wang 王靓安 Marketing Supervisor Peggy Ni 倪佩琪 Marketing Executive Wyle Yuan 袁咏妍 General enquiries and switchboard (020) 8358 6125 / [email protected] Editorial (020) 8358 9847 ext 808 / [email protected] Sales (Guangzhou) (020) 8358 9847 ext 802 / [email protected] Distribution/Subscription (020) 8358 7749 ext 828 Listings & Events (Guangzhou) (020) 8358 9847 ext 808.
    [Show full text]
  • GTJA INTERNATIONAL Universe-20150529
    GUOTAI JUNAN INTERNATIONAL Universe Weekly Update 国泰君安国际研究股票每周更新 29 May 2015 Code Company name Changes in the past week Earnings Est. chg? YOKU US YOUKU TUDOU Rating is downgraded from accumulate to neutral; 6 to 18 months target price is revised upwards from USD22.00 to USD26.00 Y 01109 HK CR LAND - R 6 to 18 months target price is revised upwards from 28.70 to 29.40 Y QIHU US QIHOO 360 6 to 18 months target price is revised downwards from USD96.00 to USD75.00 Y HMIN US HOME INNS & HOTEL Rating is downgraded from accumulate to neutral; 6 to 18 months target price is revised downwards from USD29.00 to USD28.50 Y 01186 HK CHINA RAIL CONS - H 6 to 18 months target price is revised upwards from 11.50 to 16.50 Y 00992 HK LENOVO GROUP - R 6 to 18 months target price is revised upwards from 13.80 to 14.70 Y 00005 HK HSBC HOLDINGS Rating is neutral; 6 to 18 months target price is 77.89 Y 00322 HK TINGYI Rating is downgraded from neutral to reduce; 6 to 18 months target price is revised downwards from 17.00 to 15.50 Y 02357 HK AVICHINA - H Initial coverage; Rating is accumulate; 6 to 18 months target price is 13.50 N 03800 HK GCL-POLY ENERGY Rating is downgraded from buy to reduce; 6 to 18 months target price is revised downwards from 2.80 to 1.80 Y 01138 HK CHINA SHIP DEV - H 6 to 18 months target price is revised upwards from 6.50 to 7.60 Y 00688 HK CHINA OVERSEAS - R Rating is upgraded from accumulate to buy; 6 to 18 months target price is revised upwards from 24.26 to 36.43 Y 01117 HK CHINA MODERN DAIRY Rating is downgraded from buy to neutral;
    [Show full text]