Research Department Morning Research Focus

23 November 2015 Table of Contents 目录

 Weekly Overview and Trading Focus 上周回顾和本周交易提示  Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点

Tudou (YOKU US): 3Q15 Results in line

优酷土豆 (YOKU US): 3Q15 业绩基本符合预期

Latest Reports 最新报告摘要

EPS Est. Company Name Code Title TP Chg Rating Chg Change?

公司名称 代码 标题 目标价 变动 评级 变动 盈利预测 是否改变 Eyes on Overseas Opportunities,  CMHI 00144 HK HK$35.00 ↓ Buy -- Y Maintain ‘Buy’

招商局国际 00144 HK 关注海外机会，维持 “买入 ” HK$35.00 ↓ 买入 -- 是

 JD.com Inc JD US 3Q15 Results in line, ‘Neutral’ US$30.00 -- Neutral -- Y

京东 JD US 3Q15 业绩符合预期，“中性” US$30.00 -- 中性 -- 是

Increasing Investment in Powerlong Real  01238 HK Commercial Properties, Upgrade HK$2.30 ↑ Buy ↑ Y Estate to “Buy” 逐步加大商业地产的投资，调高评级 宝龙地产 01238 HK HK$2.30 ↑ 买入 ↑ 是 至“买入”

Appendices：Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附：行业和公司焦点，最新报告摘要中文版。

HSI Performance HSCEI Performance

29,000 16,000

27,000 14,000 25,000

23,000 12,000

21,000 10,000 19,000

17,000 8,000 Nov/14 Feb/15 May/15 Aug/15 Nov/15 Nov/14 Feb/15 May/15 Aug /15 Nov/15 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

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Weekly Overview and Trading Focus (Jason Song) 上周回顾和本周交易提示（宋然）

 Overview of last week 上周回顾

HK market rebounded last week, with HSI up 1.6% wow to 22,754 and HSCEI up 1.2% wow to 10,302. For the first ten months of the year, the year-on-year decrease of SOE’s profits expanded to 9.8%. President Xi Jinping said to accelerate the development of Asia-Pacific free trade zone, and expected Asian Infrastructural Investment Bank to be established by the end of the year. Total social power consumption declined 0.2% yoy in October. The NDRC approved railway investment of RMB33.4 billion. According to the Vice President of the CSRC, the commission will promote the mutual recognition of funds between and Hong Kong and continue to promote Shenzhen-HK Stock Connect. PBoC injected RMB10 billion liquidity into the financial system via open market last week. Short-term Shibor slightly increased. Spot exchange rate of Renminbi against U.S. dollar decreased 105 bps last week. According to the FOMC meeting minutes, most Fed officials were open to December interest-rate hike. The dollar index increased 0.2% wow to 99.231. U.S. market rebounded with S&P 500 up 3.3% wow to 2,089 and Dow Jones Industrial up 3.4% wow to 17,824.

港股上周反弹，恒指全周累计升 1.6%至 22,754 点，国指累计升 1.2%至 10,302 点。前 10 月国企利润同比降幅扩大至 9.8%。 习近平表示要加快亚太自由贸易区建设，预计亚投行将于年底前正式成立。10 月份，全社会用电量同比下降 0.2%。发改委批 复铁路投资项目 334 亿元。中国证监会副主席表示，未来将推动内地与香港基金互认，继续推动深港通。银行上周公开市场 净投放人民币 100 亿元流动性，短期 Shibor 轻微回升。人民币对美元即期汇率上周下降 105 个基点。美联储会议纪要表明， 几乎所有重要央行成员都对 12 月加息持开放态度。美元指数周环比上升 0.2%至 99.231。美股反弹，标准普尔 500 指数全周 累计升 3.3%至 2,089 点，道琼斯指数全周累计升 3.4%至 17,824 点。

 Trading focus of this week 本周交易提示

Key economic data and events

Date Country Data / events Market Consensus Previous Value Change November-23 U.S. October Existing Home Sales 5.40 5.60 (3.6%) (mn) November-24 U.S. 3Q2015 GDP QoQ Second 2.0% 1.5% 0.5 ppts Estimate November-24 U.S. October New Home Sales 500 468 6.8% ('000) November-25 U.S. October Durable Goods Orders 1.5% (1.2%) 2.7 ppts MoM November-25 U.S. September S&P 20 City Home 0.6% 0.1% 0.5 ppts Price YoY Note: All the forecasts in the above table are based on market consensus from Bloomberg.

重要经济数据和事件

日期 国家 数据 / 事件 市场一致预期 前值 变化 11 月 23 日 美国 10 月年化成屋销售量（百万套） 5.40 5.60 (3.6%)

11 月 24 日 美国 2015 年 3 季度 GDP 第二次预测 2.0% 1.5% 0.5 ppts （环比） 11 月 24 日 美国 10 月年化新建住宅销售量（千套） 500 468 6.8%

11 月 25 日 美国 10 月耐用品订单（环比） 1.5% (1.2%) 2.7 ppts

11 月 25 日 美国 9 月标普 20 大城市房价指数（同 0.6% 0.1% 0.5 ppts 比） 注：上表中所有预测都基于彭博的市场一致预期。

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Industry and Company Focus

Youku Tudou (YOKU US): 3Q15 Results in line

Analyst: Ray Zhao  What happened: The Company posted 3Q15 results. Key Fundamentals are as following:

3Q15 (RMB) yoy% 1-3Q15 yoy%

Revenue 1,854.8mn +62.3% 4,604.0mn 56.5%

Non GAAP Loss 316.5mn +184.5% 1,295.0mn 151.0% Non GAAP Loss per 1.62 +201.5% 5.24 178.8% ADR

Source: the Company.

 Comments and views: Youku posted 3Q15 results basically in line. Non GAAP net profit was below market consensus but revenue slightly beat market consensus. Ad revenue reached RMB1349.7mn, up 37% yoy, slightly below expectations. Consumer revenue reached RMB256.2mn, up 514% yoy, mainly due to membership and interactive videos. Content cost accounted for 56.8% of total revenue, up 1.9ppt yoy. In the short run, content cost pressure was still huge and the only way to maintain high revenue growth and mobile traffic is to increase content cost. We believe Alibaba Group need to integrate Youku and Weibo to create more synergy in next 1~2 years. Youku’s short video stream will rely on Weibo’s social media traffic very much in the long run.

 Investment suggestion: The 3Q15 results were basically in line expectations. Youku might delist soon to become a key part of Ailbaba Group media segment.

Latest Reports

CMHI (00144 HK): Eyes on Overseas Opportunities, Maintain ‘Buy’

Rating: Buy 6-18m TP: HK$35.00 Analyst: Ivan Zhou Report Date: 2015-11-20

Summary  For the first ten months of2015, total throughput of CMHI ports was 69.4million TEUs, up 3.3% yoy.Due to the weak import and export data of China, throughput growth of the Company’s ports in mainland China has been lower. On the other hand, throughput of Company’s overseas terminals grew by 14.8% yoy to 12.7 million TEUs for the first ten months in 2015.  CMHI together with COSCO Pacific (1199 HK) and CIC Capital Corporation have acquired 65% of equity of Kumport.Total consideration was US$940 million and CMHI’s portion (40%) was US$376 million. Kumport is located inIstanbuland is the third largest container terminal in Turkey.Contribution of the acquisition to CMHI’s net profit is expected to be less than 1% in FY15 and approx. 3% in FY16.  We expect the contribution from the Company’s overseas terminals will substantially grow. However, China’s exports growth is expected to be weak and so as the terminal throughput in China. Overall, we slightly revise down net profit estimates by 2.8%, 4.4% and 5.2% in FY15-FY17, respectively.  “One Belt, One Road” strategy will benefit the Company in the long term and will be in favor of the valuation of port companies. Considering the positive outlook of the fundamentals and leading position of the Company among its peers, current valuation of the Company is attractive. We maintain investment rating of ‘Buy’ but revise down TP to HK$35.00 to reflect the slightly downward revising of earnings estimates. Our TP represents 20.5x, 18.3x

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and 16.6x FY15-FY17 PER, or 1.3x FY15 P/B ratio.

JD.com Inc (JD US): 3Q15 Results in line, ‘Neutral’

Rating: Neutral 6-18m TP: US$30.00 Analyst: Ray Zhao Report Date: 2015-11-20

Summary  Jingdong (JD)'s 3Q15 results were basically in line. In 3Q15, JD’s GMV reached RMB115.0bn, up 70.9% YoY, in which direct sales GMV reached RMB61.3bn, up 51.4% YoY, or down 5.3% qoq; marketplace GMV reached RMB53.7bn, up 100.4% YoY, or up 7.8% qoq. Orders reached 330mn, up 7.8% YoY, in which mobile orders accounted for 52% of total orders, up 5 ppt qoq. Revenue reached RMB44.1 bn, up 52.0% yoy. Non GAAP net profit reached RMB23mn.  Key points: 1) Strong GMV but slightly lost market share.Gross margin reached 13.8%, up 0.8 ppt qoq. GMV market share reached 12.2%, down 0.7 ppt qoq. 2) ’s strong mobile traffic brought JD lots of new buyers. Annual active buyers reached 132mn, up 68.2% YoY. 3) Cultivate new business. Currently, JD Home and JD Finance might increase expenses ratio. Loan receivables reached RMB1.6bn.  Maintain Target Price at USD30.00 and investment rating is ‘Neutral’. As China's E-commerce growth is slowing down and market competition might become more intensified, JD might stay at breakeven for at least 2~3 years. Our FY15-17 non GAAP net loss forecasts are RMB342mn, RMB277mn, and RMB274mn. Our TP is set at USD30.00, representing 1.0x 2016E PS and 0.7x 2017E PS.

Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK): Increasing Investment in Commercial Properties, Upgrade to “Buy” Rating: Buy 6-18m TP: HK$2.30 Analyst: Van Liu / Gary wong Report Date: 2015-11-20

Summary  According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China (“NBS”), from Jan. to Oct. 2015, the cumulative GFA sold of commodity houses amounted to 949.0 million sq.m, up 7.2% YoY, which decreased by 0.3 ppts compared with that of Jan. to Sept. 2015. The cumulative sales amount of commodity houses amounted to RMB6,479.0 bn, up 14.9% YoY, which decreased by 0.4 ppts compared to that of Jan. to Sept. 2015. We have seen a robust growth in property sales since April 2015.  Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK)’s total contracted sales value and total contracted sales area for the first ten months amounted to RMB11,002 million and 1,191,450 sq.m, respectively, representing a contracted sales value increase of 55.6% YoY and a contracted sales area increase of 41.3% YoY. This showed that the contracted sales remained strong through October. In addition, the Company continued to add quality land bank in 1st tier cities by acquiring a piece of land for RMB1,222 million in on 17 November.  The Company shifted its focus to Shanghai and 2nd tier cities should be a proper strategy. In addition, the Company’s commercial properties portfolio was sizable and was still expanding. Current market price does not reflect the Company’s potential in increasing contracted sales ASP and fast increase in rental incomes due to operating area increasing. We raise the TP to HKD2.30, representing 70% discount to its 2015 NAV. Upgrade to “Buy”.

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Chinese Translation 中文翻译

行业和公司焦点

优酷土豆 (YOKU US): 3Q15 业绩基本符合预期

分析员：赵 睿

 事件描述：公司公布 3Q15 业绩，主要指标表现如下：

3Q15 (百万) 变动% 1-3Q15 变动%

收入 1,854.8 百万 +62.3% 4,604.0 百万 56.5%

Non GAAP 股东亏损 316.5 百万 +184.5% 1,295.0 百万 151.0%

Non GAAP 每股损失 1.62 +201.5% 5.24 178.8%

数据源：公司。

 观点评论：公司公布了 3Q15，略好于预期。Non GAAP 利润低于预期但是收入超过市场预期。广告收入 达到 1349.7 百万，同比增长 37%。消费者收入大达到 256.2 百万，同比增长 514%，主要包括会员付费 和直播互动。内容成本占收入 56.8%，季环比上升 1.9ppt。短期内容成本压力依然非常大，加大内容投 入是维持移动流量高增长的唯一方式。我们相信阿里巴巴集团会在未来 1~2 年整合优酷和微博创造更多 协同效应。优酷的短视频流未来将会非常依赖微博的社交流量。

 投资建议：公司 3Q15 业绩基本符合预期。优酷很快会退市成为阿里巴巴集团媒体板块的重要一部分。

最新报告

招商局国际 (00144 HK): 关注海外机会 ，维持 “买入 ” 评级： 买 入 6-18m 目标价: HK$35.00 分析员： 周一帆 报告日期: 2015-11-20

报告摘要  在 2015 年前十个月，招商局国际的港口合共吞吐量为 6,940 万标准箱，同比增长 3.3%。由于中国进出口数据较弱， 公司位于中国大陆的港口吞吐量增速下降。另外，2015 年前十个月公司海外码头吞吐量同比增长 14.8%至 1,270 万标 准箱。

 招商局国际联合中远太平洋（1199 HK）以及中投海外一起收购了 Kumport 码头 65%股权。代价为 9.40 亿美元而招 商局国际的部分（40%）为 3.76 亿美元。Kumport 位于伊斯坦布尔，是土耳其第三大集装箱码头。该收购预计将贡献 招商局国际 2015 年净利润少于 1%，贡献 2016 年净利润约 3%。

 我们预计公司海外码头的贡献将会持续增长。然而，中国出口增速以及中国码头吞吐量增长预计将变慢。总的来说， 我们轻微下调 2015-2017 年净利润预测 2.8%，4.4%和 5.2%。

 “一带一路”战略将长远有利于公司并且其有利于港口公司的估值。考虑到基本面的正面预期以及公司在行业中的领 导地位，公司当前估值吸引。我们维持投资评级“买入”但下调目标价至 35.00 港元以反映轻微下调的盈利预测。我 们的目标价分别相当于 20.5 倍，18.3 倍和 16.6 倍 2015-2017 年市盈率，或 1.3 倍 2015 年市净率。

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京东 (JD US)：3Q15 业绩符合预期，“中性” 评级： 中 性 6-18m 目标价: US$30.00 分析员： 赵 睿 报告日期: 2015-11-20

报告摘要  京东 3Q15 业绩基本符合预期。3Q15，京东 GMV 达到人民币 1,150 亿元，同比增 70.9%，其中自营 GMV 达到人 民币 613 亿元，同比增 51.4%，季环比下降 5.3%；电商平台 GMV 达人民币 537 亿元，同比增长 100.4%，季环比 增 7.8%。总订单达到 330 百万单，同比增 7.8%，其中移动订单占总订单的 52%，季环比升 5 个百分点。总收入达 到人民币 441 亿元，同比增 52.0%。非 GAAP 利润达到人民币 23 百万元。  要点：1）GMV 增长强劲，但是市场份额略降。京东毛利率为 13.8%，季环比提高 0.8 个百分点。GMV 市场份额为 12.2%，季环比下降 0.7 个百分点。2）腾讯移动流量为京东带来大量用户。年度活跃买家达 132 百万，同比增 68.2%。 3）培育新业务。京东到家和京东金融短期会增加费用率。贷款余额达到人民币 16 亿元。

 目标价为 30.00 美元, 投资评级为“中性”。目前电商增长放缓，竞争加剧，京东至少在未来 2-3 年都可能处于盈亏平 衡。我们 2015-2017 年的非 GAAP 亏损预测为人民币 342 百万元、人民币 277 百万元、和人民币 274 百万元。目标 价 30.00 美元，相当于 1.0 倍的 2016 年预测市销率和 0.7 倍 2017 年预测市销率。

宝龙地产 (01238 HK): 逐步加大商业地产的投资，调高评级至“买入” 评级： 买 入 6-18m 目标价: HK$2.30 分析员： 刘斐凡/黄家玮 报告日期: 2015-11-20

报告摘要  据中国国家统计局的统计数据，2015 年 1-10 月累计商品房销售面积为 949.0 百万平方米，同比增长 7.2%，比 2015 年 1-9 月累计下降了 0.3 个百分点。累计商品房销售金额达 64,790 亿元(人民币，下同)，同比增长 14.9%，比 2015 年 1-9 月的增长率下降 0.4 个百分点。我们看到公司的房地产销售自 2015 年 4 月起增长强劲。  宝龙地产（01238 HK）的累计合同销售金额和总合约销售面积前十个月总额分别为 110.02 亿元和 1,191,450 平方 米。合同销售金额同比增长 55.6%，而合约销售面积同比增长 41.3%。这表明截至 10 月份的合同销售保持强劲。另 外，公司于 11 月 17 日以 12.22 亿元收购上海的一片土地以继续增加于一线城市的优质土储。

 我们认为公司将战略焦点放在上海和二线城市是合适的。此外，公司拥有庞大而仍在增长的商业物业组合。 现时市价 并未反映公司合约销售平均价格的上升及因商场营运面积扩张而快速增长的租金收入潜力。 我们提高公司目标价至 2.30 港元，相当于较 2015 年 NAV 有 70%的折让。评级上调至“买入”。

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Research Department 研究部

Grace Liu 刘 谷 Head of Research, Market 主管，市场策略、 [email protected] (86755) 23976698 / Strategy, Petrochemicals 石化 (852) 25097516

Ray Zhao 赵 睿 Conglomerate, E-commerce 综合、电子商务 [email protected] (86755) 23976755

Gary Wong 黄家玮 Environmental Protection, 环保、基建 [email protected] (852) 25092616 Infrastructure

Leo Wu 吴逸超 Coal, Electricity 煤炭、电力 [email protected] (86755) 23976871

Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Gaming 消费（酒店）、博彩 [email protected] (86755) 23976684

Sunny Kwok 郭日升 Consumer (Food & Beverage, 消费（食品饮料、 [email protected] (852) 25092642 Household Products) 日用品）

Jason Song 宋 然 Market Strategy 市场策略 [email protected] (852) 25097768

Shirley Gu 古乔艺 Market Strategy 市场策略 [email protected] (86755) 23976718

Square Chui 徐惠芳 Futures 期货 [email protected] (852) 25092629

Kevin Guo 郭 勇 Raw Materials, Gas 原材料、燃气 [email protected] (86755) 23976671

Ricky Lai 黎柏坚 Telecommunications, Internet 电信、互联网 [email protected] (852) 25092603

Dayton Wang 王庆鲁 Insurance, Fixed-income 保险、债券 [email protected] (852) 25095347

Richard Cao 曹 柱 Banking 银行 [email protected] (86755) 23976870

Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 Clean Energy, Electric Equipment 清洁能源、电力设备 [email protected] (852) 25097592

Ivan Zhou 周一帆 Shipping & Logistics, Ports 航运物流、港口 [email protected] (86755) 23976685

Andrew Song 宋 涛 Consumer (Retailing), 消费（零售）、 [email protected] (852) 25095313 Home Appliances 家电

Van Liu 刘斐凡 Property 房地产 [email protected] (86755) 23976672

Sherry Li 李沁亦 Aviation, 航空、汽车 [email protected] (86755) 23976675 Automobiles & Components

Sean Xiang 向宇豪 Machinery, Construction Materials 机械、建材 [email protected] (86755) 23976725

Terry Hong 洪学宇 Consumer (Apparel) 消费（服装） [email protected] (86755) 23976722

Johnny Wong 王俊浩 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) 25095348

Toliver Ma 马守彰 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) 25095317

Spencer Fan 范明 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (86755) 23976686

Barney Wu 吴宇扬 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (86755) 23976680

Gary Ching 程嘉伟 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) 25092665

Esabella Zhao 赵舒蔓 Research Assistant, Translator 研究助理、翻译员 [email protected] (86755) 23976681

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Company Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral. Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable. Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.

Sector Rating Definition The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months Rating Definition Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable. Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral. Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.

DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS

(1) The Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for SMI Holdings Group Limited (00198), China Fire Safety Enterprise Group Limited (00445), Guangshen Railway Company Limited-H shares (00525), China All Access (Holdings) Limited (00633), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (01788) and Binhai Investment Company Limited (02886), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with Shanghai Electric- H shares (02727) / Huaneng Power- H shares (00902) / Powerlong Real Estate (01238) / Anhui Conch Cement- H shares (00914) / Huishang Bank- H shares (03698) / Redco Properties (01622) / AviChina Industry & Technology- H shares (02357) / China U-Ton (06168) / Tianyun International (06836) / Shenzhen Investment (00604) / D&G Technology (01301) / CGN Meiya Power (01811) / China Aoyuan Property (03883) / Bosideng (03998) / Binhai Investment (02886) / Wasion Group (03393) / Jiangsu Expressway- H shares (00177) / China Singyes Solar Technologies (00750) / China Dredging Environment Protection (00871) / Chanjet Information Technology- H shares (01588) / CGN Power- H shares (01816) / China All Access (00633) / Yanzhou Coal Mining- H shares (01171) / WH Group (00288) / China Wood Optimization (08099) / China Creative Home (01678) / Freetech Road Recycling Technology (06888) / China Shipping Container Lines- H shares (02866) / Huaneng Renewables- H shares (00958) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months.

DISCLAIMER This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services and etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily).

Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan.

Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision.

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