Research Department Morning Research Focus 23 November 2015 Table of Contents 目录 Weekly Overview and Trading Focus 上周回顾和本周交易提示 Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点 Youku Tudou (YOKU US): 3Q15 Results in line 优酷土豆 (YOKU US): 3Q15 业绩基本符合预期 Latest Reports 最新报告摘要 EPS Est. Company Name Code Title TP Chg Rating Chg Change? 公司名称 代码 标题 目标价 变动 评级 变动 盈利预测 是否改变 Eyes on Overseas Opportunities, CMHI 00144 HK HK$35.00 ↓ Buy -- Y Maintain ‘Buy’ 招商局国际 00144 HK 关注海外机会，维持 “买入 ” HK$35.00 ↓ 买入 -- 是 JD.com Inc JD US 3Q15 Results in line, ‘Neutral’ US$30.00 -- Neutral -- Y 京东 JD US 3Q15 业绩符合预期，“中性” US$30.00 -- 中性 -- 是 Increasing Investment in Powerlong Real 01238 HK Commercial Properties, Upgrade HK$2.30 ↑ Buy ↑ Y Estate to “Buy” 逐步加大商业地产的投资，调高评级 宝龙地产 01238 HK HK$2.30 ↑ 买入 ↑ 是 至“买入” Appendices：Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports. 后附：行业和公司焦点，最新报告摘要中文版。 HSI Performance HSCEI Performance 29,000 16,000 27,000 14,000 25,000 23,000 12,000 21,000 10,000 19,000 17,000 8,000 Nov/14 Feb/15 May/15 Aug/15 Nov/15 Nov/14 Feb/15 May/15 Aug /15 Nov/15 Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer Page 1 of 8 Weekly Overview and Trading Focus (Jason Song) 上周回顾和本周交易提示（宋然） Overview of last week 上周回顾 HK market rebounded last week, with HSI up 1.6% wow to 22,754 and HSCEI up 1.2% wow to 10,302. For the first ten months of the year, the year-on-year decrease of SOE’s profits expanded to 9.8%. President Xi Jinping said to accelerate the development of Asia-Pacific free trade zone, and expected Asian Infrastructural Investment Bank to be established by the end of the year. Total social power consumption declined 0.2% yoy in October. The NDRC approved railway investment of RMB33.4 billion. According to the Vice President of the CSRC, the commission will promote the mutual recognition of funds between China and Hong Kong and continue to promote Shenzhen-HK Stock Connect. PBoC injected RMB10 billion liquidity into the financial system via open market last week. Short-term Shibor slightly increased. Spot exchange rate of Renminbi against U.S. dollar decreased 105 bps last week. According to the FOMC meeting minutes, most Fed officials were open to December interest-rate hike. The dollar index increased 0.2% wow to 99.231. U.S. market rebounded with S&P 500 up 3.3% wow to 2,089 and Dow Jones Industrial up 3.4% wow to 17,824. 港股上周反弹，恒指全周累计升 1.6%至 22,754 点，国指累计升 1.2%至 10,302 点。前 10 月国企利润同比降幅扩大至 9.8%。 习近平表示要加快亚太自由贸易区建设，预计亚投行将于年底前正式成立。10 月份，全社会用电量同比下降 0.2%。发改委批 复铁路投资项目 334 亿元。中国证监会副主席表示，未来将推动内地与香港基金互认，继续推动深港通。银行上周公开市场 净投放人民币 100 亿元流动性，短期 Shibor 轻微回升。人民币对美元即期汇率上周下降 105 个基点。美联储会议纪要表明， 几乎所有重要央行成员都对 12 月加息持开放态度。美元指数周环比上升 0.2%至 99.231。美股反弹，标准普尔 500 指数全周 累计升 3.3%至 2,089 点，道琼斯指数全周累计升 3.4%至 17,824 点。 Trading focus of this week 本周交易提示 Key economic data and events Date Country Data / events Market Consensus Previous Value Change November-23 U.S. October Existing Home Sales 5.40 5.60 (3.6%) (mn) November-24 U.S. 3Q2015 GDP QoQ Second 2.0% 1.5% 0.5 ppts Estimate November-24 U.S. October New Home Sales 500 468 6.8% ('000) November-25 U.S. October Durable Goods Orders 1.5% (1.2%) 2.7 ppts MoM November-25 U.S. September S&P 20 City Home 0.6% 0.1% 0.5 ppts Price YoY Note: All the forecasts in the above table are based on market consensus from Bloomberg. 重要经济数据和事件 日期 国家 数据 / 事件 市场一致预期 前值 变化 11 月 23 日 美国 10 月年化成屋销售量（百万套） 5.40 5.60 (3.6%) 11 月 24 日 美国 2015 年 3 季度 GDP 第二次预测 2.0% 1.5% 0.5 ppts （环比） 11 月 24 日 美国 10 月年化新建住宅销售量（千套） 500 468 6.8% 11 月 25 日 美国 10 月耐用品订单（环比） 1.5% (1.2%) 2.7 ppts 11 月 25 日 美国 9 月标普 20 大城市房价指数（同 0.6% 0.1% 0.5 ppts 比） 注：上表中所有预测都基于彭博的市场一致预期。 Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer Page 2 of 8 Industry and Company Focus Youku Tudou (YOKU US): 3Q15 Results in line Analyst: Ray Zhao What happened: The Company posted 3Q15 results. Key Fundamentals are as following: 3Q15 (RMB) yoy% 1-3Q15 yoy% Revenue 1,854.8mn +62.3% 4,604.0mn 56.5% Non GAAP Loss 316.5mn +184.5% 1,295.0mn 151.0% Non GAAP Loss per 1.62 +201.5% 5.24 178.8% ADR Source: the Company. Comments and views: Youku posted 3Q15 results basically in line. Non GAAP net profit was below market consensus but revenue slightly beat market consensus. Ad revenue reached RMB1349.7mn, up 37% yoy, slightly below expectations. Consumer revenue reached RMB256.2mn, up 514% yoy, mainly due to membership and interactive videos. Content cost accounted for 56.8% of total revenue, up 1.9ppt yoy. In the short run, content cost pressure was still huge and the only way to maintain high revenue growth and mobile traffic is to increase content cost. We believe Alibaba Group need to integrate Youku and Weibo to create more synergy in next 1~2 years. Youku’s short video stream will rely on Weibo’s social media traffic very much in the long run. Investment suggestion: The 3Q15 results were basically in line expectations. Youku might delist soon to become a key part of Ailbaba Group media segment. Latest Reports CMHI (00144 HK): Eyes on Overseas Opportunities, Maintain ‘Buy’ Rating: Buy 6-18m TP: HK$35.00 Analyst: Ivan Zhou Report Date: 2015-11-20 Summary For the first ten months of2015, total throughput of CMHI ports was 69.4million TEUs, up 3.3% yoy.Due to the weak import and export data of China, throughput growth of the Company’s ports in mainland China has been lower. On the other hand, throughput of Company’s overseas terminals grew by 14.8% yoy to 12.7 million TEUs for the first ten months in 2015. CMHI together with COSCO Pacific (1199 HK) and CIC Capital Corporation have acquired 65% of equity of Kumport.Total consideration was US$940 million and CMHI’s portion (40%) was US$376 million. Kumport is located inIstanbuland is the third largest container terminal in Turkey.Contribution of the acquisition to CMHI’s net profit is expected to be less than 1% in FY15 and approx. 3% in FY16. We expect the contribution from the Company’s overseas terminals will substantially grow. However, China’s exports growth is expected to be weak and so as the terminal throughput in China. Overall, we slightly revise down net profit estimates by 2.8%, 4.4% and 5.2% in FY15-FY17, respectively. “One Belt, One Road” strategy will benefit the Company in the long term and will be in favor of the valuation of port companies. Considering the positive outlook of the fundamentals and leading position of the Company among its peers, current valuation of the Company is attractive. We maintain investment rating of ‘Buy’ but revise down TP to HK$35.00 to reflect the slightly downward revising of earnings estimates. Our TP represents 20.5x, 18.3x Research Focus See the last page for disclaimer Page 3 of 8 and 16.6x FY15-FY17 PER, or 1.3x FY15 P/B ratio. JD.com Inc (JD US): 3Q15 Results in line, ‘Neutral’ Rating: Neutral 6-18m TP: US$30.00 Analyst: Ray Zhao Report Date: 2015-11-20 Summary Jingdong (JD)'s 3Q15 results were basically in line. In 3Q15, JD’s GMV reached RMB115.0bn, up 70.9% YoY, in which direct sales GMV reached RMB61.3bn, up 51.4% YoY, or down 5.3% qoq; marketplace GMV reached RMB53.7bn, up 100.4% YoY, or up 7.8% qoq. Orders reached 330mn, up 7.8% YoY, in which mobile orders accounted for 52% of total orders, up 5 ppt qoq. Revenue reached RMB44.1 bn, up 52.0% yoy. Non GAAP net profit reached RMB23mn. Key points: 1) Strong GMV but slightly lost market share.Gross margin reached 13.8%, up 0.8 ppt qoq. GMV market share reached 12.2%, down 0.7 ppt qoq. 2) Tencent’s strong mobile traffic brought JD lots of new buyers. Annual active buyers reached 132mn, up 68.2% YoY. 3) Cultivate new business. Currently, JD Home and JD Finance might increase expenses ratio. Loan receivables reached RMB1.6bn. Maintain Target Price at USD30.00 and investment rating is ‘Neutral’. As China's E-commerce growth is slowing down and market competition might become more intensified, JD might stay at breakeven for at least 2~3 years. Our FY15-17 non GAAP net loss forecasts are RMB342mn, RMB277mn, and RMB274mn. Our TP is set at USD30.00, representing 1.0x 2016E PS and 0.7x 2017E PS. Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK): Increasing Investment in Commercial Properties, Upgrade to “Buy” Rating: Buy 6-18m TP: HK$2.30 Analyst: Van Liu / Gary wong Report Date: 2015-11-20 Summary According to the National Bureau of Statistics of China (“NBS”), from Jan. to Oct. 2015, the cumulative GFA sold of commodity houses amounted to 949.0 million sq.m, up 7.2% YoY, which decreased by 0.3 ppts compared with that of Jan. to Sept. 2015.