20.03.2018-26.03.2018 • No: 156 7

MARCH 2018 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN RUSSIA

During recent presidential election in Russia while influential state mass media networks number of votes in favor of Putin exceeding held on March 18, 2018, incumbent President were widely used to build a patriotic enthusi- 90%, namely, Crimea (92.15%), Tyva Vladimir Putin secured a vote of confidence by asm over the vote. It is worth noting that even (91.98%), and Sevastopol (90.19%). winning a landslide re-election victory. As a the election date was moved in advance from Putin’s nearest competitor, Communist Party result, 65-year-old Vladimir Putin will extend March 11 to March 18, the day when Russia candidate Pavel Grudinin, got 11.77% of votes, his rule as a head of Russia for another six celebrates its reunification with Crimea, which marking the worst ever result for Russia’s left- years until 2024. In fact, Putin has been presi- is widely recognized among Russian citizens wing party, while leader of the far-right Liberal dent since 2000, stepping aside for one term as as Putin’s greatest achievement. Finally, Democratic Party of Russia Vladimir prime minister in order to comply with the Putin’s annual state of the nation address to the Zhirinovsky got 5.65% of votes. The only can- Russian legislation, according to which presi- Federal Assembly held on March 1, 2018, the didate to openly and strongly criticize Putin dents in Russia can’t serve more than two con- format of which underwent a number of during the campaign, well-known media per- secutive terms. changes in connection with the presidential sonality and liberal political activist Ksenia Despite the fact that Putin’s re-election was election, was aimed at generating a deep sense Sobchak nominated by the Civil Initiative never in question, almost 109 million of national pride and patriotism that was sup- Party garnered 1.68% finishing in the fourth who were eligible to vote at more than 97,000 posed to find its expression through the ballot place. She was followed by head of the Ya- polling stations nationwide had a choice of box. eight candidates. In fact, the recent election set Moreover, there was an additional external fac- bloko Party Grigory Yavlinsky (1.05%), Chair- the record for both the number of registered tor that helped to mobilize the turnout. Recent man of the Party of Growth Boris Titov candidates running for the presidency and the confrontation between Russia and the United (0.76%), Maxim Suraikin nominated by the number of applications submitted. The Central Kingdom over the poisoning of former double Communists of Russia Party (0.68%), and head Election Commission (CEC) of Russia has re- agent Sergei Skripal triggered a patriotic re- of the Russian People’s Union Party Sergei Ba- ceived 34 applications to run for the presi- sponse by Russian citizens. Being pressured by burin (0.65%). Despite a number of irregulari- dency, 16 of which were from the political par- London’s accusations that Russia was behind ties recorded at some polling stations across ties, while the remaining 18 were filed by self- the attack on Skripal, Moscow took advantage Russia, the CEC recognized the election as nominated candidates. However, the majority of the hype redirecting public attention to the valid. In a change from his position in the past, of applicants were denied registration, includ- voting process. As a result, the voter turnout at the president-elect met with his seven defeated ing opposition leader Alexei Navalny, who had the March presidential election reached presidential challengers in the Kremlin in order already been barred from running in the March 67.54%, close to the 70% ambition of the to map out his main priorities for the forthcom- elections de jure due to a criminal conviction Kremlin. Opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s ing presidential term, which would be focused in February 2017 for embezzlement, which appeal to boycott the election did not signifi- on improving the living standards of the Rus- many consider to be politically motivated. As cantly affect the situation. sian population by ensuring innovation devel- for Putin, he was registered as a self-nominated According to the CEC, Vladimir Putin has opment and economic growth. As a result, the candidate, and it was his third time running in- gained 76.69% of votes, showing his best elec- Kremlin has finally dotted the i’s and crossed dividually, while the ruling party United Rus- tion result compared to 53% of votes in the the t’s in regard to Russia’s internal and exter- sia, on behalf of which Putin was nominated in 2000 presidential election, 71% in 2004 and nal policies for the next six-year period. the 2012 election, extended its support to his 64% in 2012. 56.43 million voters out of 73.62 It could be concluded that despite Russia’s re-election. million people voted supported Putin’s candi- two-year recession amid lower oil prices and Unlike other candidates, Putin’s team did not dacy, which is about 10 million more than in the country’s deteriorating relations with the engage in traditional political campaigning 2012, when Putin faced a serious opposition during the pre-election period. The refusal to movement and massive protest marches that West Putin’s dominance over the domestic po- debate his opponents coupled with the lack of took place in Moscow and other large cities af- litical landscape has grown. The victory that clarity over the key message of his election ter a massive voter fraud at the December par- was widely predicted completes the concentra- platform clearly demonstrated that the major liamentary elections in 2011. Unlike the 2012 tion of power in his hands providing a neces- goal of Putin’s re-election campaign was not to election, where Putin won just 47% of votes in sary room for geopolitical and economic ma- hold an aggressive agitation, but to boost the Moscow, which is considered to be the main neuvers. Unless Putin decides otherwise and turnout in Russia, especially in the large cities. stronghold of the opposition, the 2018 election opts for constitutional changes, in 2024 Russia The incumbent president’s reportedly high rat- results show that the president-elect received will face the need to choose another leader that ing served as a factor supporting the shift in the the higher number of votes, gaining 70% of highlights the problem of the forthcoming focus of Putin’s campaign to ensuring a high votes in the capital city. Moreover, the regions power transit in the country. According to level of the voter turnout. In fact, even though of the so-called “red belt”, which comprise the some political analysts, during his fourth and, Putin did not release an official electoral pro- predominantly agricultural areas of central presumably, last term Vladimir Putin will most gram, the latest opinion surveys before the Russia, a number of the southern regions of Si- likely prepare his successor, with a person to election date showed that his support reached beria and the Far East, where the Communist be appointed as the prime minister as the most 69%, which particularly fit the Kremlin’s Party is traditionally strong, shifted their sup- probable candidate. In fact, it is already known “70/70” scheme, where the election turnout port to Putin. Similar to the previous elections, that the president-elect will announce the com- should reach 70% with 70% of all votes going the highest figures were recorded in the North position of the future government after his in- to Putin. Caucasus. Over 93.38% of voters supported auguration. On the other hand, there is still a In order to prevent the recurrence of the 2016 Putin in Kabardino-Balkaria, while the per- chance that Putin could decide to extend his parliamentary election situation, when the centage of Putin’s supporters in Chechnya and rule beyond 2024 by abolishing term limits or turnout dropped below 50%, the Kremlin pur- Dagestan amounted to 91.44% and 90.76%, re- by shifting into another position of power. sued a proactive policy. For instance, the CEC spectively. In addition to the North Caucasian hired consultants to help promote the election, republics, three more regions registered the Written by Lidiya Parkhomchik, Eurasian Research Institute,

Politics, Foreign Affairs and Security  According to the state-owned company foreign currency exceeded $14.715 bil- Belarusian Railways, rail freight traffic lion, which is a 0.41% decrease. The

 According to the Central Election Com- between Belarus and went up volume of monetary gold in the gold mission of Turkmenistan, the voter by 15% to 33.4 million tons in 2017. and foreign exchange reserves of Uz- turnout in the parliamentary and local Meanwhile, the number of people trans- bekistan decreased from $13.988 billion elections reached 91.69%. It was noted ported by international passenger trains to $13.621 billion. that over 3.2 million registered voters reached 285,900, which is a 4.7% de-  According to the Oil Ministry of Iran, were able to vote at around 2,604 poll- crease compared to 2016. the country, on average, exported 2.6 ing stations that operated in the country  During the fourth meeting of the Bela- million barrels of oil per day to Asian and 39 polling stations that were estab- rusian-South African committee on and European countries during the cur- lished at the diplomatic missions of trade and economic cooperation held in rent fiscal year. The daily exports in- cluded 2.115 million barrels of crude oil Turkmenistan abroad. Pretoria, Deputy Minister of Foreign and 428,000 barrels of condensates.  According to the National People’s Affairs of Belarus Andrei Dapkiunas Congress of China, Chinese Premier Li met with Deputy Minister of Trade and Society and Culture

Keqiang was re-elected for a second Industry of South Africa Bulelani Mag-  During his visit to New York, President five-year term. The National People’s wanishe to discuss prospects for of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon signed Congress delegates voted 2,964 in favor strengthening mutual trade and imple- the UN Convention on the Rights of of his re-election with two votes against. menting joint economic projects, in- Persons with Disabilities. It was noted At the same time, Wang Qishan was cluding joint ventures to produce trac- that at present, about 150,000 people elected as Vice President. tors, cargo and passenger equipment, with disabilities, including about  President of Tajikistan Emomali Rah- and process agricultural products. 26,000 children, live in Tajikistan. mon made an opening speech at the  According to the OPEC, Azerbaijan’s  According to the Russian State Corpo- high-level event to launch the Interna- oil production is expected to decline by ration , the manned space- tional Decade for Action “Water for 0.03 million barrels per day year-on- craft MS-08 carrying the crew of Sustainable Development 2018-2028” year to average 0.77 million barrels per three was placed into orbit. held in New York. On the sidelines of day in 2018. It was noted that crude oil The Soyuz MS-08 spacecraft launched the event, the Tajik leader, met with production in January 2018 increased from the Baikonur spaceport is taking Russian cosmonaut Oleg Artemyev and United Nations Secretary-General An- by 0.01 million barrels per day month- NASA astronauts Andrew Feustel and tonio Guterres to discuss current issues on-month to average 0.75 million bar- rels per day. Preliminary data on liquids Richard Arnold to the International regarding the effective use of water and Space Station. energy resources for the benefit of the production in February 2018 shows the  According to the Central Bank of Rus- peoples of Central Asia. output remained at the same level. sia, the total turnover of remittances be-  According to the Steel Producers Asso-  Ambassador of Kazakhstan to Kyrgyz- tween Uzbekistan and Russia in 2017 stan Karim Kokrekbayev met with ciation of Iran, over 20.02 million tons amounted to $2.785 billion, which is Chairman of the Kyrgyz Border Service of crude steel was produced in the coun- 41% more compared to 2016. At the Ularbek Sharsheyev to discuss prospec- try during the first 11 months of the cur- same time, $122.2 million of remit- tive cooperation on border control, as rent fiscal year (March 2017-February tances were transferred from Uzbeki- well as the development of checkpoint 2018), which is a 19% increase com- stan to Russia in 2017, which is 40.45% infrastructure on the Kyrgyz-Kazakh pared to the same period of last year. It less than in 2016. state border. was also noted that during the reporting  According to Chairman of the Central  During his official visit to the United period Iran also produced about 18.11 Election Commission of Azerbaijan Arab Emirates (UAE), President of Ka- million tons of various steel products, Mazahir Panahov, more than 300 inter- zakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev met including beam, wide sheets, hot rolled national observers will monitor the with Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and sheets, galvanized steel and tubes, indi- presidential election in Azerbaijan to be Deputy Supreme Commander of the cating a rise by 9% compared to 16.588 held in April 2018. It was noted that 280 Armed Forces of the UAE Sheikh Mo- million tons produced in the same pe- short-term observers of the OSCE Of- hammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan to dis- riod of the preceding fiscal year. fice for Democratic Institutions and Hu- man Rights, as well as the CIS short- cuss further intensification of mutual  According to the Customs Administra- term observers, are not included in the cooperation in terms of investment pro- tion of China, in January 2018 the trade list. tection, space technologies, hydropower turnover between Iran and China stood  As part of the U.S. government’s Export industry, petrochemicals, agriculture, at $3.8 billion, which is a 16.93% in- Control and Border Security (EXBS) and digitalization. As a result of the crease year-on-year. In January 2018, China’s exports to Iran amounted to program, the U.S. Embassy in Du- talks, the parties signed six agreements shanbe donated a new regional training $1.7 billion, which is a 10.3% decrease and memorandums on the cooperation center for prevention of weapons of in various fields. year-on-year, while China’s imports . mass destruction, nuclear non-prolifera- from Iran increased by 56.4% reaching tion, and export control to the Govern- Economy, Finance and Energy $2 billion. ment of Tajikistan. This regional center  The Central Bank of Russia lowered the  According to the Central Bank of Uz- will aid the Nuclear Radiation and key rate from 7.5% to 7.25% per annum, bekistan, in March 2018 the country’s Safety Agency in its ability to provide one and a half months after the previous gross gold and foreign exchange re- enhanced interdiction training to its per- cut. It was noted that the bank forecasts serves amounted to $28.336 billion de- sonnel in order to interdict illicit mate- annual inflation to be 3-4% in 2018 and creasing by 1.53% compared to Febru- rials and other forms of contraband remain close to 4% in 2019. ary 2018. In March 2018, the assets in crossing the Tajik border.

Prepared by Lidiya Parkhomchik, Dauren Aben, Daniyar Nurbayev