WEEKLY MARKET WATCH SIC-FSL INVESTMENT RESEARCH| MARKET REVIEWS|

5th December, 2013

SIC LIMITED|ADVISORY|FUND MANAGEMENT|STOCK BROKERAGE|INVESTMENT RESEARCH

STOCK MARKET INVESTORS REMAIN CAUTIOUS ON THE

INDICATORS WEEK OPEN WEEK END CHANGE Market participants brought some level of passion on the Ghana Stock Exchange last week, regardless of the Market Capitalization (GH¢ 'million) 27,973.20 27,857.40 -0.41% numerical strength of losers over gainers. Appreciations in Market Capitalization (US$' million) 834,492.00 1,433,447.00 71.77% Ghana Commercial Bank (GCB) and Limited (GOIL) were more than sufficient to reverse the Volume traded (shares) 1,008,926.73 2,819,506.79 179.46% previous sluggish performance by listed companies. Value Traded (GH¢) 484,641.53 1,348,207.71 178.19% Nonetheless, some anxious shareholders succumbed to Value Traded (US$) 27,973.20 27,857.40 -0.41% market demands as they reluctantly reduced offers to Table 1: Market Summary match with the available bids on the market. This accounted for the greater number of depreciations INDEX ANALYSIS witnessed among stocks like CAL Bank, PZ Cussons, Standard Chartered Bank, and Total Ghana limited. INDICATORS Closing Week YTD Level Change CHANGE In effect the GSE Composite Index and the SIC-FSL Top 15 Indices went up by 0.20% and 0.23% each to settle GSE Composite Index 2,129.69 0.20% 77.52% at annual yields of 77.52% and 67.54% respectively. Although the Financial Stocks Index rose marginally, it SIC-FSL Top 15 Index 3,403.89 0.23% 67.54% maintained it year-to-date rate of 70.63%. GSE Financial Stocks Index 1,774.36 0.00% 70.63% Table 2: Key Stock Market Indices Total market capitalization appreciated by 0.04% to GH¢58.26 billion over the period due to gains in GCB and GOIL.

LIQUIDITY 90.00% 80.00% Increased activity last week, accounted for the improvement in 70.00%

volume and value traded. CAL Bank contributed 35.86% of total 60.00% volume traded on the Bourse, to close as the best performed 50.00% stock traded, whereas Ghana Commercial Bank made a little over GH¢688,956 to emerge the most valuable stock within the 40.00% period. 30.00% 20.00% In the end, a total of 1.43 million shares exchanged hands in the 10.00% period under review. This represented nearly 72% improvement

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Total value traded also went up by 179% within the week. -10.00% -

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Fig 1: Year-to-date returns

MARKET MOVERS STOCK Wk Open Wk End Change % TICKER change

GOIL records the biggest gains over the week GCB 4.77 4.80 0.03 0.63%

GOIL 0.78 0.89 0.11 14.10% The Oil marketing stock; GOIL, ended the week as the top gainer, advancing by 14.10% to close last Thursday’s session Table 3: Gainers for the week at GH¢0.89 per share.

Investors took advantage of the company’s recent bonus share offer to further strengthen their positions in the Oil Company. GOIL’s bonus share issue reflected on the market last week, as STOCK Wk Open Wk End Change % beneficiaries were credited in the ratio of 0.2 new shares for TICKER change every one existing share held. This dilution, gave the company CAL 0.99 0.98 -0.01 -1.01% a new value of GH¢0.78 per share on the market. However, investors sharply pushed the stock to GH¢0.89 per share, PZC 0.82 0.80 -0.02 -2.44% which was just GH¢0.04 below its price before the bonus share offer. SCB 14.98 14.96 -0.02 -0.13% TOTAL 5.04 5.02 -0.02 -0.40% The company, as a result increased its issued shares to 252.22 million from the previous 210.19 million shares. Table 4: Laggards for the week

PZC tops losers’ list PZ Cussons Limited (PZC) ended last week’s trading as the worst stock, following a 2.44% depreciation in the company’s market value. SIC, 15.47% At a price of GH¢0.80 per share, the consumer good dealer was trading 71% above its book value (GH¢0.23 per share) CAL, 35.86% and at a trailing P/E of 21x. ETI, 10.05%

GCB, 10.02%

FML, 4.46% Others, 24.15%

CORPORATE NEWS Fig 2: Top 5 most liquid equities with respect to volume traded

Ecobank secures a loan agreement with PROPARCO: The Pan African Bank, Transnational Incorporated (ETI) has signed a ten- year loan agreement worth $50 million with the French Agency, PROPARCO, to strengthen its long-term resources and will support the development of its local banking network. PROPARCO is a French development institution jointly owned by the Agence Française de Développement (AFD) and private shareholders from developed and developing nations. Their aim is to promote private investment in developing countries to reach the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs).

Stock Ticker Year Opening Closing Price @ YTD Gain/Loss (%) Price(GH¢) 5/12/2013 (GH¢) African Champion Industries Ltd. ACI 0.07 0.06 -14.29% AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. AGA 37.00 37.00 0.00% Aluworks Limited ALW 0.05 0.05 0.00% Ayrton Drug Manufacturing Ltd. AYRTN 0.18 0.18 0.00% Benso Oil Palm Plantation BOPP 1.40 3.20 128.57% Cal Bank Ltd CAL 0.38 0.98 157.89% Clydestone (Ghana) Ltd. CLYD 0.04 0.04 0.00% Ltd. CMLT 0.14 0.16 14.29% Cocoa Processing Co. Ltd. CPC 0.02 0.02 0.00% Ltd. EBG 3.00 5.60 86.67% Limited EGL 0.48 1.90 295.83% Ecobank Transnational Inc. ETI 0.12 0.18 50.00% Ltd. FML 3.55 6.60 85.92% Ghana Commercial Bank Ltd. GCB 2.10 4.80 128.57% Ltd. GGBL 2.62 6.10 132.82% Ghana Oil Company Limited GOIL 0.62 0.89 50.00% Golden Star Resources Ltd. GSR 2.75 2.75 0.00% Ltd. GWEB 0.04 0.04 0.00% HFC Bank (Ghana) Ltd. HFC 0.45 0.96 113.33% Co. Ltd. MLC 0.15 0.38 153.33% Ltd. PKL 0.06 0.06 0.00% Ltd. PBC 0.18 0.17 -5.56% PZ Cussons Ghana Ltd. PZ 0.18 0.80 344.44% Standard Chartered Bank (GH) Ltd.* SCB 11.50 14.96 30.09% SIC Company Ltd. SIC 0.34 0.39 14.71% Ltd. SPL 0.05 0.04 -20.00% Limited SOGEGH 0.48 0.75 56.25% Sam Woode Ltd. SWL 0.02 0.03 50.00% Trust Bank Ltd. (The Gambia) TBL 0.40 0.35 -12.50% Ltd. TOTAL 23.49 5.02 -78.63% Transaction Solutions (Ghana) Ltd. TRANSOL 0.04 0.03 -25.00% Tullow Oil Plc TLW 38.05 32.00 -15.90% Ghana Ltd. UNIL 8.52 18.29 114.67% UT Bank UTB 0.38 0.44 15.79% AngloGold Ashanti Depository Shares AADS 0.52 0.52 0.00% Standard Chartered Bank Preference shares SCB PREF 0.52 0.52 0.00% NewGold Exchange Traded Fund GLD 32.18 26.13 -18.80%

CURRENCY MARKET GHANA CEDI WEAKENS FURTHER

The local currency fell for the seventh consecutive time last EXCHANGE RATES BUYING SELLING YTD week, as an attempt to recover from the recent tepid CHANGE performance proved futile again. This, many analyst have attributed to the approaching festive season as traders USDGHS 2.0900 2.0925 10.97%▼ increased demand for foreign currencies to import goods for the yuletide celebration. GBPGHS 3.4176 3.4219 12.46%▼

As a result, the shrunk by 0.50% against the EURGHS 2.8345 2.8369 11.87%▼ Pound, the Dollar and the Euro as its year-to-date loss on the interbank market extended to 11.70% from 11.14% a fortnight ago. Table 6: Inter-bank indicative rates

▲ year-to-date appreciation 15.00% ▼ year-to-date depreciation

10.00% Pound soars on the local currency market 5.00% The Pound failed to impress investors on the international front following the release of a lower than expected growth in the country’s Purchasing Manager Index (PMI). The PMI for the 0.00% month of November fell short of the 62.5 recorded in October 2 17 1 18 5 21 9 24 10 28 12 27 15 30 15 30 16 2 18 4 19 4 as it settled at 60.0, waning investors confidence in the currency on the global market. -5.00% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct NovDec

However, investors on the Ghanaian market appeared -10.00% unperturbed as they held tight to the British Pound with the view EURGHS USDGHS GBPGHS that the situation will change after the Bank of England (BoE) announces its monetary policy decision. This gave the Pound a Fig 3: YTD performance of Pound, Dollar & Euro versus the Cedi better stand against the Cedi, resulting in the 0.97% appreciation in value versus the local currency on the interbank market last week. Euro remains strong despite mixed-data

The euro saw little net movement against its major trading partners internationally, due to the release of mixed data Cedi maintains downward trajectory against Dollar across the region. Retail figures for the 17-nation bloc went down on expectations as it revealed a decrease in consumer The Cedi traded within a relatively narrow range last week as spending. poor economic data like inflation and the increase in dollar demand continue to weigh down on the Ghanaian economy. Italian Services data recorded a contraction, whereas Spanish Services PMI provided positive news for the Eurozone, The local currency in effect extended it loss versus the revealing more growth than expected. The overall Purchasing Greenback into another week as it suffered a 0.46% decline in Manager Index (PMI) in the eurozone, declined from 51.6 in value against the Dollar. October to 51.2 last month. This, however, could not halt the Single currency from appreciating by 0.34% in value against the Ghanaian Cedi on the inter-bank market. At the end of the trading week, the Euro was trading at GH¢2.8345 and selling at GH¢2.8369.

Alice Osei Okrah (Head) Isaac Kwasi Mensah (Analyst) Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected] Email: [email protected]

NB: The data in this report is Thursday on Thursday (w-o-w)