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Mozambique: A Political Economy Analysis Aslak Orre & Helge Rønning Report commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs Publisher: Norwegian Institute of International Affairs Copyright: © Norwegian Institute of International Affairs 2017 ISSN: 1894-650X The report has been commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Any views expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They should not be interpreted as reflecting the views, official policy or position of the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs or the Norwegian Institute of International Affairs. The text may not be printed in part or in full without the permission of the authors. Visiting address: C.J. Hambros plass 2d Address: P.O. Box 8159 Dep. NO-0033 Oslo, Norway Internet: www.nupi.no E-mail: [email protected] Tel: [+ 47] 22 99 40 00 Mozambique: A Political Economy Analysis Aslak Orre & Helge Rønning Chr. Michelsen Institute Report commissioned by the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs October 2017 Contents Map of Mozambique ............................................................................................................ V About the report .................................................................................................................. VI List of acronyms ................................................................................................................... VII Executive summary .............................................................................................................. IX 1. Introduction ................................................................................................................. 1 1.1. Background to this study ................................................................................... 1 1.2. The riddles of development in Mozambique .................................................... 1 1.3. Recent Norwegian relations with the country .................................................. 6 2. The stage: actors and structures of political economy ............................................ 8 2.1. People, poverty and demography ..................................................................... 8 2.2. Economy .............................................................................................................. 10 2.3. International actors ............................................................................................ 18 2.4. Politics and the state institutions ..................................................................... 20 3. Formal and informal mechanisms of the political economy .................................... 26 3.1. The role of external support and financing ....................................................... 26 3.2. The political economy of the Frelimo party-state ............................................. 28 3.3. Political violence and the armed conflict .......................................................... 33 4. Summing up and looking ahead ................................................................................ 38 4.1. Separating party and state: unlocking a reform agenda ................................. 39 4.2. Peace – or ceasefire? .......................................................................................... 40 4.3. The economy: Development versus resource curse ......................................... 40 4.4. Political economy, changes ............................................................................... 42 4.5. Implications for Norwegian activity in Mozambique ....................................... 44 Bibliography ........................................................................................................................ 48 Map of Mozambique L a k UNITED REPUBLIC OF e UNITED REPUBLIC OF MOZAMBIQUE M Cabo Delgado M uma a TANZANIA v Palma Ru Lake l A a Bangweulu w Mocimboa da Praia i L a Mueda lo Lake Rovum ssa Chifungwe Licoma Is. e (MALAWI) Mecula M A L a da CABO ZAMBIA k en Quissanga e g W Metangula u L DELGADO DEMOCRATIC N y Chiconono Ancuabe REPUBLIC OF a Pemba I s Marrupa THE CONGO a Lichinga Montepuez a w ng a Namuno u NIASSA L Lilongwe Namapa Maúa rio Vila Gamito Lú Memba Mandimba Vila Coutinho Mecubúri Nacala Cuamba po Furancungo Lake N A MPULA ona Malombe M Fíngoè Ribáuè Mossuril TETE Meconta Moçambique Lago de Lake Nampula Cahora Bassa Cahora Bassa Dam Lusaka Zumbo Chilwa Vila Junqueiro Murrupula L Mogincual i Nametil ezi Magué Namarrói g mb Moatize Erego o Za Gile n Milange h Angoche Tete Za a m Li Lugela Ilha Angoche bez cu e ng Changara o ZAMBÉZIA Moma Lake Kariba Chemba Morrumbala Pebane e l Guro Namacurra Vila da Maganja n n a Harare Vila Fontes Quelimane h Mopeia Velha C Marromeu Inhaminga Chinde SOFALA e Manica u ZIMBABWE Chimoio q Sussundenga i b MANICA Dondo BeiraBeira m a uzi Chibabava Espungabera B z o MOZAMBIQUE Nova Mambone M Save Inhassôro Ilha do Bazaruto Ilha Benguérua Chicualacuala Mabote Vilanculos Ponta São Sebastião BOTSWANA INHAMBANE C h o Mapai a Ponta da Barra Falsa p L n o i p m g m p a INDIAN OCEAN i GAZA n Massinga L o p e o Morrumbene Massingir Homoine Inhambane s Panda ant lif O GuijaGuijá Inharrime National capital ChibutoChibito Quissico SOUTH AFRICA Magude Manjacaze Provincial capital Macia Xai-Xai Manhiça Town, village Moamba Airport Maputo Namaacha 0 50 100 150 200 km International boundary Pretoria Boane MAPUTO Bela Vista 0 50 100 150 mi Provincial boundary Mbabane Main road The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the Railroad SWAZILAND United Nations. Map No. 3706 Rev. 6 UNITED NATIONS Department of Field Support May 2016 V Mozambique,Geospatial Map No. Information 3706 Rev.6, Section May (formerly 2016, Cartographic UNITED NATIONS Section) About the report In June 2016, the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Comprehensive Terms of Reference (ToR) Affairs (MFA) commissioned NUPI to provide were developed to serve as a general template for political economy analyses of eleven countries all eleven country analyses. The country-specific (Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Haiti, Malawi, Mali, ToR and scope of these analyses were further Mozambique, Myanmar, Nepal, Somalia, South determined in meetings between the MFA, the Sudan and Tanzania) deemed important to Nor- Norwegian embassies, NUPI and the individual wegian development cooperation. The intention researchers responsible for the country studies. was to consolidate and enhance expertise on these NUPI has also provided administrative support countries, so as to improve the quality of the and quality assurance of the overall process. MFA’s future country-specific involvement and In some cases, NUPI has commissioned part- strategy development. Such political economy ner institutions to write the political economy analyses focus on how political and economic analyses. power is constituted, exercised and contested. VI List of acronyms AU African Union BRICS Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa CAR Central African Republic CEO Chief Executive Officer CFM Companhia Ferroviaria de Moçambique (Mozambique Railway Company) CIP Centro de Integridade Pública (Mozambican Centre for Public Integrity) CMI Christian Michelsen Institute CNPC China National Petroleum Corporation CSO Civil Society Organisation DFID Department for International Development (UK) DSA Debt sustainability analysis EDM Electricidade de Moçambique (National electricity company) EITI The Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative EMATUM Empresa Moçambicana de Atum (Mozambique Tuna Company) ENH Empresa Nacional de Hidrocarbonetos (State oil company) ENI Originally Ente Nazionale Idrocarburi (Italian Oil company) FADM Forças Armadas Moçambicanas (Mozambican Armed Forces) FORCOM Forum de Radios Communitarios. Organisation of community rádios. FRELIMO Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Mozambique Liberation Front), usually known under the party-name Frelimo. GCCC Gabinete Central de Combate à Corrupção (Central Office for the Combat against Corruption) GALP Portuguese energy company GDP Gross Domestic Product HDI Human Development Index HIPC Highly Indebted Poor Country IAF Inquérito aos Agregados Familiares (Family Aggregate Survey) ILPI International Law and Policy Institute IMF The International Monetary Fund INP Instituto Nacional de Petróleo (National Petroleum Institute) IOF Inquérito sobre Orçamento Familiar (Family Budget Survey) ISC Instituto de Communicação Social (Institute of Social Communication. Government comunity rádios institute.) KOGAS Korea Gas Corporation KTV Televisão Klint LAM Linhas Aéreas de Moçambique (National airline) VII List of acronyms | Aslak Orre & Helge Rønning LED Local Economic Development LNG Liquefied Natural Gas MAM Mozambique Asset Management mCel Moçambique Celular (State mobile phone company) MDG Millennium Development Goals MDM Movimento Democrático de Moçambique (Mozambique Democratic Movement) MEF Ministério de Economia e Finanças (Ministry of the Economy and Finance) MISA Media Institute of Southern Africa MOZAL SA Mozambique Aluminium (aluminium smelting company) MTA Mozambican tax authority NGO Non-Governmental Organisation NORFUND Norway’s Development Finance Institution (for business) NRGI Natural Resource Governance Institute ODA Overseas Development Aid OfD Oil for Development OJM Organização da Juventude Moçambicana (the Organisation of Mozambican Youth) OMM Organização da Mulher Moçambicana (the Organisation of Mozambican Women) OTM Organização dos Trabalhadores de
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