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American Housing Survey Components of Inventory Change

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American Housing Survey Components of Inventory Change American Housing Survey Components of Inventory Change: 2015–2017 DISCLAIMER The contents of this report are the views of the contractor and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development or the U.S. Government. American Housing Survey Components of Inventory Change: 2015–2017 Prepared By: Frederick J. Eggers, Econometrica Inc. Fouad Moumen, SP Group LLC June 2020 Foreword The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development is pleased to present the 2015–2017 Components of Inventory Change (CINCH) report. This report, the 16th in a series that stretches back to 1985–1987, documents the changes in the Nation’s housing stock during a 2-year period. It is based on the American Housing Survey (AHS), the most comprehensive data collection on housing conditions in the United States. The AHS uses a longitudinal sample design, which means that housing units remain in the sample and are revisited every 2 years. Thus, the survey is uniquely able to track additions, losses, and changes to housing units. The total housing stock increased by 2.6 million units during 2015–2017. In addition to documenting this overall positive net change, the report provides greater detail on the units and building types that both entered or were lost to the overall housing stock. In addition, many units that stayed in the stock changed their characteristics. For example, 20 percent changed tenure, from owner-occupied to rental or rental to owner-occupied. Although inadequate-quality units left the stock at a higher rate than adequate, three-fourths of those that remained were restored to adequate quality. Only the AHS can track these kinds of changes. The tables in this report take a bi-directional approach, that is they include both “forward-looking” and “backward-looking” tables. The “forward-looking” tables begin with the 2015 housing stock and document what their status was in 2017. These tables include losses from the stock, either permanently or (potentially) temporarily. The “backward-looking” tables track the sources of the stock as it existed in 2017. Most of these units already existed in 2015, but some were additions— from new construction, the return of temporary losses, and other sources. Both sets of tables divide the stock into 96 overlapping categories so that one can examine the characteristics of units that left, joined, or changed at higher or lower rates. The CINCH reports reflect the core function of the Department’s Office of Policy Development and Research to “collect and analyze national housing market data.” HUD’s PD&R contributes to the Nation’s statistical infrastructure by producing high-quality, comprehensive, and unbiased data for use by all analysts of housing in the United States. Seth D. Appleton Assistant Secretary for Policy Development and Research U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development i Table of Contents LIST OF EXHIBITS .......................................................................................................................... IV EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ....................................................................................................................1 LOSSES TO THE 2015 STOCK AND ADDITIONS TO THE 2017 STOCK ..........................1 PUTTING 2015–2017 GROWTH INTO HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ...............................2 MARKET SEGMENTS WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH OR LOW LOSSES AND ADDITIONS .....2 MARKET SEGMENTS WHERE UNIT OR HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS CHANGED BETWEEN 2015 AND 2017 .............................................................................3 SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION ...........................................................................................................4 SECTION 2: FLOWS OUT OF AND INTO THE HOUSING STOCK .......................................................6 LOSSES ......................................................................................................................6 ADDITIONS ................................................................................................................8 UNITS IN BOTH HOUSING STOCKS ..........................................................................11 TRACKING THE HOUSING STOCK FROM 2015 TO 2017 ............................................12 SECTION 3: CHANGES TO THE HOUSING STOCK BETWEEN 2001 AND 2017 ...............................13 SECTION 4: WHERE LOSSES AND ADDITIONS WERE LARGE ......................................................16 OCCUPANCY, LOCATION, STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS, AND SIZE ...................16 UNIT QUALITY ........................................................................................................18 HOUSEHOLDER AND HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS .............................................20 TENURE, HOUSING COSTS, AND HOUSEHOLD INCOME ............................................20 SECTION 5: CHANGES IN CHARACTERISTICS FOR UNITS IN BOTH 2015 AND 2017 HOUSING STOCKS .....................................................................................................22 OCCUPANCY, LOCATION, STRUCTURAL CHARACTERISTICS, AND SIZE ...................22 UNIT QUALITY ........................................................................................................23 HOUSEHOLDER AND HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS .............................................24 TENURE, HOUSING COSTS, AND HOUSEHOLD INCOME ............................................25 APPENDIX A: CINCH TABLES ................................................................................................... A-1 HOW TO READ CINCH TABLES ........................................................................... A-1 COLUMNS COMMON TO BOTH FORWARD-LOOKING AND BACKWARD- LOOKING TABLES .................................................................................... A-1 COLUMNS UNIQUE TO FORWARD-LOOKING TABLES ........................................... A-2 ii COLUMNS UNIQUE TO BACKWARD-LOOKING TABLES ......................................... A-2 APPENDIX B: LOSS RATES, ADDITION RATES, T-STATISTICS, AND CHANGE IN CHARACTERISTICS RATE .....................................................................................B-1 APPENDIX C: KEY CHANGES TO CINCH DUE TO 2015 AHS REDESIGN ................................ C-1 iii List of Exhibits EXHIBIT 2-1. LOSSES BETWEEN 2015 AND 2017 (ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST HUNDRED) ..............7 EXHIBIT 2-2. ADDITIONS BETWEEN 2015 AND 2017 (ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST HUNDRED) ........9 EXHIBIT 2-3. WEIGHTED COUNTS OF UNITS IN BOTH HOUSING STOCKS (ROUNDED TO NEAREST HUNDRED) ................................................................................................11 EXHIBIT 2-4. FLOWS OUT OF AND INTO THE HOUSING STOCK BETWEEN 2015 AND 2017 (ROUNDED TO THE NEAREST HUNDRED) ...................................................................12 EXHIBIT 3-1. FLOWS OUT OF AND INTO THE HOUSING STOCK (ROUNDED TO NEAREST HUNDRED) .................................................................................................14 EXHIBIT 4-1. LOSS AND ADDITIONAL RATES BY OCCUPANCY STATUS ..........................................17 EXHIBIT 4-2. LOSS AND ADDITIONAL RATES BY STRUCTURE TYPE ...............................................18 EXHIBIT 4-3. LOSS AND ADDITIONAL RATES BY SIZE OF UNIT .......................................................18 EXHIBIT 4-4. LOSS AND ADDITION RATES BY UNIT CONDITION .....................................................19 EXHIBIT 4-5. LOSS AND ADDITIONAL RATES BY HOUSEHOLDER AND HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS ................................................................................20 EXHIBIT 4-6. SELECTED LOSS AND ADDITIONAL RATES BY HOUSING COSTS AND HOUSEHOLD INCOME ................................................................................................21 EXHIBIT 5-1. CHANGES IN CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN 2015–2017: OCCUPANCY STATUS ..........23 EXHIBIT 5-2. CHANGES IN CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN 2015–2017: NUMBER OF BEDROOMS .....23 EXHIBIT 5-3. CHANGES IN CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN 2015–2017: UNIT CONDITION ................24 EXHIBIT 5-4. CHANGES IN CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN 2015–2017: SELECTED GROUPS BY HOUSEHOLDER AND HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS ..........................................24 EXHIBIT 5-5. CHANGES IN CHARACTERISTICS BETWEEN 2015–2017: TENURE OF UNIT ................25 FORWARD-LOOKING TABLE A: HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS (ROUNDED TO HUNDREDS OF HOUSING UNITS) ............................................................................................... A-3 FORWARD-LOOKING TABLE B: HOUSING CONDITION (ROUNDED TO HUNDREDS OF HOUSING UNITS) ............................................................................................... A-6 FORWARD-LOOKING TABLE C: HOUSEHOLDER AND HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS (ROUNDED TO HUNDREDS OF HOUSING UNITS) ..................................................... A-8 iv FORWARD-LOOKING TABLE D: TENURE, HOUSING COST, AND HOUSEHOLD INCOME (ROUNDED TO HUNDREDS OF HOUSING UNITS) ..................................................... A-9 BACKWARD-LOOKING TABLE A: HOUSING CHARACTERISTICS (ROUNDED TO HUNDREDS OF HOUSING UNITS) ............................................................................................. A-11 BACKWARD-LOOKING TABLE B: HOUSING CONDITIONS (ROUNDED TO HUNDREDS OF HOUSING UNITS) ............................................................................................. A-14 BACKWARD-LOOKING TABLE C: HOUSEHOLDER AND HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS (ROUNDED TO HUNDREDS OF HOUSING UNITS) ................................................... A-16
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