Chapter Vi: Results and Finding
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CHAPTER VI: RESULTS AND FINDING: VI Chapter Six: Results, Findings In this chapter, fourth, fifth and sixth oBjectives o f study are analysed, interpreted, and discussed By using DEA method with the efficiency tools. Already, methodology o f analysis has Been discussed in chapter three with detailed scope. Also variaBles that have Been used in this chapter are discussed. In this study, non-parametric Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) has Been used to examine various Bank specific technical efficiencies. There are numBer o f advantages o f this method are given By economists and Banking analysts. Firstly, the DEA does not require imposition of restrictions of specific functional forms on the production relationship Between inputs and outputs. Secondly, the DEA models simultaneously accommodate multiple inputs and outputs, thereBy serving as a useful tool of efficiency analysis where service sector industries or firms such as banks, financial institutions etc. are involved. DEA techniques have Been also proved to Be particularly suitaBle in working with limited sample sizes (Evanoff and Israilevich, 1991). Following Charnes et al. (1978) and assuming CRS, strong disposaBility o f inputs and outputs and convexity o f the set o f feasible input-output comBinations; the DEA can Be presented w ith a simpler analytical framework where firms or DM Us' are faced with their respective input-output vectors and a measure o f the ratio o f all outputs over inputs is oBtained. Among others, the DEA technique provides particular advantage where firms (e.g. banks and other service sectors firms) are known to produce multiple outputs. Also, under the variaBle returns to scale (VRS) technologies, as assumed in this study, the DEA allows decomposing technical efficiency (TE) into pure technical efficiency (PTE) and scale efficiency (SE). This provides an insight into the sources o f inefficiencies and helps determine whether Banks have Been operating at most productive scale size (MPSS). The estimates o f pure technical and scale efficiencies are also expected to provide opportunity to assess the impact o f the suBstantial changes from consolidation, diversification and rationalization o f the Banking sector, on efficiency o f Islamic Banking Operations. ^ Decision Mal<ing Units 255 In this thesis, Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is used due to its aBility to capture multiple outputs and to overcome the proBlems regarding the misspecification of the frontier. Input orientated approach o f D EA under Constant Return to Scale (CRS) and VariaBle Return to Scale (VRS) is used for the Technical Efficiency measurement o f the commercial and specialised banks. In this study, scale efficiency and Return to Scale which commercial and specialised banks operate is also estimated. The input and output oriented measures o f technical efficiency yield the same estimates when CRS technology is applied in DEA models, whereas the estimates are different under VRS technologies. However, the issue of whether to use input or output oriented measures is essentially trivial. Since ‘linear programming does not suffer from such statistical proBlems as simultaneous equation bias, the choice o f an appropriate orientation is not as crucial as it is in the case o f econometric estimation’ (Coelli, 1998: 158). In this study, we adopt an output-oriented approach, which could Be somewhat consistent with the current environment in Islamic Banking industry in Iran where many banks have been competing for providing improved services and Better incentives to their customers. 1. Period of Data and Analysis In this thesis, the period o f data is used from 1995 to 2004, because the some banks data for the year 2005 and onwards are not availaBle, therefore the Windeap 2.1 software cannot generate the efficiency indices results. The earlier plan was to take data for the year 1995 to 2005, But in this chapter as mentioned above analysis restricted till 2004. Ten Banks efficiency indices are calculated, interpreted, and discussed, which covers the Post- Revolution, after the country passed the political instaBility during Revolution( 1975-1980), eight year war with Iraq (1980-1989) and reconstruction (1989- onward) in the Islamic Banking industry in I.R.Iran. This study analysis is Based on originally collected data with detail items. The secondary data from financial statements (balance sheet and profit/loss statement) o f 10 government owned banks, including 4 specialized banks (Keshavarzi bank, San’ at o M a’adan Bank, Maskan bank, and Tosaeh Saderat Bank), and 6 commercial banks (Saderat bank, Sepah Bank, Terjarat bank, M elli Bank o f Iran, Mellat Bank, Refah Bank) which cover more than 85% o f the Banking business in country, are collected, interpreted and discussed. In DEA method, technical efficiency o f commercial banks is calculated under 256 Constant Returns to Scale (CRS) and VariaBle Return to Scale (VRS). For each year, efficiency frontier o f the commercial and specialized banks is estimated By using that year’s output-input variaBles data o f particular banks throughout the research period. While collecting data, more than 90% percent o f Banking system assets in the respective period have Been covered. This period represents reforms policy period along with macroeconomic staBility, after long period of political instaBility, war, and reconstruction in the country. This period can also represent the performance o f Banking sector Based on management efficiency in the more liBeralized economic and marketization policy in economic atmosphere o f the country. When the decision was made to open the markets for national and international competitiveness with oBjective o f strengthening the banks efficiency and soundness to enter the WTO, By privatization policies and open the entry o f private as well as foreign banks to market. Therefore, respective period will cover the feedBack of reforms policy in Banking sector of country. Data Envelopment Analysis Program (DEAP 2.1 Computer Program) developed By Coelli^ (1996) and extended version to run By the windows operating system^ is used to estimate the efficiency of commercial and specialized banks under different specifications. 2. Selection of Input and Output Variables In the respective efficiency specification (Technical Efficiency), efficiency of a commercial bank is defined as its aBility to produce given set of outputs with minimum use of inputs. ‘ReliaBle’ efficiency prediction requires appropriate definitions and certain assumptions regarding the measurement of input, output. The exclusion of certain important Bank inputs and/or outputs might bias the final efficiency measures By distorting construction o f the frontier (the locus of the efficient comBination of inputs and outputs). To determine what constitutes inputs and outputs o f banks, one should first decide on the nature o f Banking technology. In literature on the theory o f Banking, there are two main approaches competing with each other in this regard: the production and the intermediation approaches (Sealey and Lindley, 1977). Like many studies on Banking efficiency (e.g., A ly et al., 1990; Zaim, 1995; ^ DEAP refers to Prof. T. Coelli's programme DEAP.EXE, his help file A Guide to DEAD Version 2.1: A Data Analysis (Computer) Program, CEPA Working Pager 96/08, Department of Econometrics, University of New England and his example files and any other material distributed in DEAP. ^ in the currently file named WINDEAP110.EXE or in the file currently named WINDEAP110.ZIP) is copyrighted by Michel Deslierres. 257 DeYoung and Nolle, 1998; Berger and Mester, 1997; Resti, 1997; DeYoung and Hasan, 1998), we adopt the intermediation approach in this paper. Accordingly, we model commercial banks as multi-product firms, producing 3 outputs and employing 4 inputs. All variaBles except for the input factor o f laBor are measured in millions Rials. In this study, the inputs and outputs have Been defined following the intermediation approach, which is appropriate for measuring the entire Bank level efficiency since it is inclusive o f the variaBle equivalent to interest expense, which often accounts for one-half to two-thirds o f total costs (Berger and Humphry, 1997). Since Islamic Banking is Based on interest-free principles, the variaBles adopted are Based on the Banking system operation whereas four input variaBles and three output variaBles which followed By review o f many studies on Banking efficiency and their variaBle selection.'* The input vector includes: (1) laBour [LABOR], the numBer of full-time employees; (2) physical capital [P H Y C A P IT ] the Book value o f premises and fixed assets; (3) total deposits [T O T A LD E P ], the sum o f demand deposits and term-investment deposits (4) numBer of Branches [BRANCHES] The output vector includes: (1) total loans [loans] including all type o f loans and mode o f financing which outstanding Based on Islamic modes (2) investment securities [IN VSECU R], including investment on government securities and central Bank securities, (3) gross profit [P R O FIT] the Bank profit Before tax reduction. While our definition of Bank inputs and outputs is not free from short-comings, we Believe that it might Be a reasonable challenge to improve the way to present Bank production in I.R.Iran. 3. Results and Discussion Results o f the study are organised for each year. The indices are compared and discussed for each table. The overall mean efficiency index o f Banking system during the respective period are reviewed. In respective specification, technical efficiency o f commercial and specialized banks is estimated under constant returns to scale (CRS). Under constant returns to scale (CRS) specification of DEA, estimated technical efficiency scores of commercial and * The table of input/output variables of bank efficiency studies has been derived and designed in chapter three as methodology of research 258 specialized puBlic Banks for year 1996 on input-orientated DEA model are Briefly reported in taBles 6-1, and 6-2 while the correspondent efficiency score on output-orientated DEA model reported in taBle 6-3.