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The Modi Visit: Canadians Express Interest in Free Trade with India, Doubts About Nuclear Deal

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The Modi Visit: Canadians Express Interest in Free Trade with India, Doubts About Nuclear Deal For Immediate Release Canadian Public Opinion Poll Page 1 of 29 The Modi Visit: Canadians express interest in free trade with India, doubts about nuclear deal Opinions of India, Indo-Canadian community are generally favourable April 14, 2015 – As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi arrives on a three-day state visit to Canada, people in Canadian Views of India this country feel positively towards his homeland in general, but their top-of- mind images of the country aren’t always 4% glowing. Very favourable 8% They see India’s economic growth as an Mostly favourable opportunity for Canada, but still say our 26% diplomatic efforts should be placed on China first. They’re comfortable pursuing Mostly a free trade agreement with India, but not 63% unfavourable a nuclear energy deal. Very unfavourable Those are among the findings of a comprehensive Angus Reid Institute public opinion poll measuring Canadian views and perceptions of India, of Canada’s relationship with the country, METHODOLOGY: and of the Indo-Canadian community. The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from April 8-10, 2015 The three-part study yields some among a representative, randomized sample of 1475 Canadian adults who revealing, and at times, remarkable are members of the Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2.6 results about what we think about India, percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The survey was self-commissioned and how we view many of the main and paid for by ARI. Detailed tables are found at the end of this release. issues Modi and Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper will be discussing, and perhaps finalizing, during the visit. Key Findings: • The maJority of Canadians (70%) have a generally favourable view of India • Most Canadians (58%) say this country should pursue a free trade agreement with India • They are reticent about a possible India-Canada nuclear energy deal: 60 per cent say no • While Canadian knowledge about India’s governance and economic situation is generally high, the poll reveals an interesting, albeit incorrect, understanding of India’s religious makeup MEDIA CONTACT: Shachi Kurl, Senior Vice President: 604.908.1693 [email protected] @shachiKurl For Immediate Release Canadian Public Opinion Poll Page 2 of 29 Part One – General Perceptions and Knowledge about India How do we feel about India? Canada and India share many common bonds: both were former colonies of the British Empire, and therefore both share a system of governance based on the Westminster model. Both are tied economically and diplomatically through the G-20 and the Commonwealth. Both countries officially embrace pluralism. Over the course of Canada’s history, and especially in recent decades, ties have focused, indeed, some may say depended on, the relationships built by immigrants from India who have made their home in this nation. With that in mind, Canadians are more than twice as likely to have a friendly view of India as an unfriendly one. Overall, seven-in-ten said they have a favourable view of the country, while the rest said they saw India unafavourably (30%). This view was consistent across demographic and regional lines. However, those generally warm feelings do not necessarily translate into certainty about the strength of Canada’s relationship with India, confidence in that country’s actions on the world stage, or how it manages some aspects of its domestic affairs. India as Canada’s ally? Indeed, just half (49%) of Canadians agreed that “India could be counted on as a dependable ally to Canada”. Still, this is twice as many as those who disagree (22%) while the rest (29%) say they don’t know. The highest amount of skepticism on this front was found in Saskatchewan and Manitoba (40%), while the most confidence was among respondents from Ontario (50%), Quebec (50%) and Atlantic Canada (54%). India on the world stage: On the question of whether “India does the right thing when it comes to world affairs”, even fewer – one- third (35%) – are in agreement. Notably, British Columbia residents are least likely to endorse this view (28%) and Quebecers most likely (43%). One-quarter (26%) disagreed, while the most respondents (39%) indicated that they weren’t sure about India’s performance on international affairs. Perceptions of India’s actions at home: Nor do Canadians take a particularly bright view of the country’s respect for the personal freedoms of its own people. Fewer than one-third (28%) agreed this was the case, while, significantly, nearly twice as many (52%) disagreed. MEDIA CONTACT: Shachi Kurl, Senior Vice President: 604.908.1693 [email protected] @shachiKurl For Immediate Release Canadian Public Opinion Poll Page 3 of 29 Opinions about India 52% 49% 39% 35% 29% 28% 26% 22% 20% Agree Disagree Don't know Agree Disagree Don't know Agree Disagree Don't know India can be counted on as a India does the right thing when it comes India respects the personal freedoms of dependable ally to Canada. to world affairs. its people. Opinions depend on overall view of India: Those who view the country favourably to begin with are much more likely to have faith in its actions on all three fronts: • They are three times as likely to say Canada can count on India’s support (60% versus 23% of those who view the country unfavourably) • They are more than three times as likely to say that India does the right thing in international affairs (44% versus 14% unfavourable) • And they are nearly four times as likely to view India’s respect for the freedoms of her own people as those who don’t see the country in a positive light (36% favourable versus 10% unfavourable) What do we Know about India? Canada doesn’t Know Modi: Presented with a photo of Modi, and asked if they could identify him, just over one-in-five respondents (22%) were successful, while the vast maJority (71%) said they didn’t know who he was, and the rest MEDIA CONTACT: Shachi Kurl, Senior Vice President: 604.908.1693 [email protected] @shachiKurl For Immediate Release Canadian Public Opinion Poll Page 4 of 29 identified him incorrectly (see detailed tables at the end of this release). Those living in Ontario, and those with university educations were slightly more likely to correctly identify him. Those born outside Canada were significantly more likely to correctly identify Modi, by a ratio of more than two-to-one. Among respondents born in Canada 21 per cent knew the Indian Prime Minister. This increased to nearly half (49%) among those born outside the country. Those results are consistent with our July 2014 survey canvassing Canadian opinions of G7, Russian and BRIC leaders. At that time three-quarters (74%) indicated they didn’t know Modi well enough to choose attributes they might associate with him. It should be noted, however, that notwithstanding US President Barack Obama, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Russian President Vladimir Putin and British Prime Minister David Cameron, most Canadians didn’t have enough familiarity with the other leaders mentioned in last year’s survey to offer opinions, either. But we do Know the country (sort of): Democracy Respondents are, however, familiar with India’s system of government. Three-quarters (72%) correctly identified the country as a democracy, while just over one-in-ten said it was a military state (12%) and about as many chose “dictatorship” (16%). People living in British Columbia were most likely to know how India is governed (80%). Those with favourable views of India were more likely to know it is a democratic country than those with a negative view (79% versus 56% respectively). Conversely, those who have an unfavourable view of India were twice as likely to identify it as a military state than those more warmly predisposed (19% versus 9%) or as a dictatorship (25% versus 12%). Economy Canadians also correctly see India’s economy as one that is growing briskly, a subject to be visited in more detail later in this report. • Three-quarters (75%) saw India’s economy as growing, either rapidly (37%) or moderately (38%) • Practically no one (3%) thought the country’s economy is shrinking • The rest (22%) thought the Indian economy is stagnant Religion The Angus Reid Institute poll did find some interesting Canadian perceptions of religion in one of the world’s most populous and arguably spiritually diverse nations. Asked to identify which two religions they thought had the most followers in India: MEDIA CONTACT: Shachi Kurl, Senior Vice President: 604.908.1693 [email protected] @shachiKurl For Immediate Release Canadian Public Opinion Poll Page 5 of 29 • Respondents accurately chose Hinduism (88% thought this was one of the biggest two faith groups). Indeed, Hindus comprise the largest religious group in India, with more than 800 million followers. • But two-in-five (38%) incorrectly view Sikhism as one of India’s largest faith groups (rising to a whopping 67% in BC). While Sikhs do comprise a significant swath of the Indian community in Canada, they are in fact, not more than two per cent of the actual Indian population, with roughly 19 million adherents there. • Buddhism was similarly overestimated as a maJor faith group with one-third (33%) choosing this as one of India’s two largest faith groups (with this perception highest in Quebec at 54%). This perception may perhaps be understandable considering that internationally known Buddhist Tibetan spiritual leader the Dalai Lama has been living in exile in India since 1959. However, actual adherents to Buddhism in India total less than one per cent of the population.
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