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Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Teff Production In ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON TEFF PRODUCTION IN LUME AND GIMBICHU DISTRICTS OF CENTRAL ETHIOPIA DEGEFU KEBEDE BAYECHA A DISSERTATION SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE IN AGRICULTURAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS OF SOKOINE UNIVERSITY OF AGRICULTURE. MOROGORO, TANZANIA. 2013 i ABSTRACT This study was carried out with the main objective of analyzing the economic impacts of climate change on teff production in central Ethiopia. Specific objectives of the study were: i) To analyze the relationship of income from teff (Eragrostis tef) production with biophysical and socioeconomic variables, ii) To determine the marginal impact of temperature and rainfall on income from teff production, iii) To predict a range of potential future impacts on teff production under a mid-range emission scenario. The study used data collected from a randomly selected sample of 150 smallholder teff producers in Lume and Gimbichu districts from March 2013 to May 2013. The study assessed descriptively farmers‟ perceptions on climate change in terms of long-term change in climate variables including temperature and rainfall, and adaptations undertaken in teff production. The study used a cross sectional Ricardian approach to analyse the impact of climate change on net revenue from teff production. Net revenue per hectare per year for teff crop was regressed against climate predictor, biophysical and socioeconomic control variables. The results indicate that predictor variables had a significant influence on net farm returns from production. The marginal impact analysis revealed that temperature will have a significant (p < 0.01) negative impact on annual net revenue from teff. Rainfall will have a positive impact on net revenue from teff production. Based on a mid-range IPCC‟s emission A1B scenario for the country, the predicted future climate change will adversely impact on net revenue from teff for all time periods of near, mid and far century. Investment in research on teff improved technologies, and transfer of such adaptation technologies to teff smallholder farmers through improved extension services are recommended from this study as to increase farmers‟ adaptive capacity to reduce the impact of climate change on teff production. ii DECLARATION I, Degefu Kebede Bayecha, do hereby declare to the Senate of Sokoine University of Agriculture that this dissertation is my own original work done within a period of registration and that it has neither been submitted nor being concurrently submitted in any other institution. …………………………………… …………………………. Degefu Kebede Bayecha Date (M.Sc. Candidate) The above declaration is confirmed by: …………………………………… ……………………………, Dr. Khamaldin Mutabazi Date (Supervisor) iii COPYRIGHT No part of this dissertation may be reproduced, stored in any retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written permission of the author or Sokoine University of Agriculture in that behalf. iv ACKNOWLEDGEMENT First and foremost, I would like to thank my God for allowing me to start and finish my study. My greatest thanks and appreciation goes to my supervisor Dr. Khamaldin Mutabazi for his professional support and due concerns from the designing of research proposal up to thesis write-up. It is my pleasure to thanks Dr. Damas Philip, Head of department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness, for his constructive professional comments on my research proposal and thesis, and Dr. Nhemachena Charles, University of Pretoria, South Africa for his valuable professional comments on my research proposal. I also thank and heartfelt appreciation to African Economic Research Consortium (AERC) for the full scholarship grant, without which joining the M.Sc. program would not have been possible. It is difficult to mention here all people who assisted me and contributions of organizations in various ways toward the successful completion of this research. In this regard, I would like to express my sincere appreciation to all of them, and to mention few; Dr Frew Mekbib, Fresenbet Zeleke, Habib Abu, Tolera Goshu, Abadi Teferi, Kedir Ahmed, Denu Lemma, Beatrice Daniel, Daniel Jaleta, Nano Alemu, Wondu Balcha, Sime Biratu, Aster Leggese, Habtamu Admasu , staff members of both Lume and Gimbichu districts office of Agricultural and Rural Development, Ethiopian NMA for access and use of climate data and Debrezeit Agricultural Research center for access to teff research publications. At last, but more importantly I would like to thank my family, for their unconditional support, valuable encouragement, inspiration and love. v DEDICATION I dedicate this work to my beloved mother Zenebu Damesa for nursing me with affection and love, and for her dedicated partnership in both success of my life and career. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT .......................................................................................................................... i DECLARATION ................................................................................................................ ii COPYRIGHT ..................................................................................................................... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT ................................................................................................. iv DEDICATION .................................................................................................................... v LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................. x LIST OF FIGURES ........................................................................................................... xi LIST OF APPENDICES .................................................................................................. xii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS ......................................................................................... xiii CHAPTER ONE ................................................................................................................. 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background Information ................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Problem Statement and Justification ............................................................................... 4 1.3 The Objectives of the Study ............................................................................................ 5 1.3.1 The overall objective.............................................................................................. 5 1.3.2 Specific objectives ................................................................................................. 5 1.4. Hypothesis ..................................................................................................................... 6 1.5 Significance of the Study ................................................................................................ 6 1.6 Scope and Limitation of the Study ................................................................................. 7 1. 7 Organization of the Study .............................................................................................. 8 CHAPTER TWO ................................................................................................................ 9 2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW ............................................................................................ 9 2.1 Definitions of Terms and Concepts ................................................................................ 9 vii 2.1.1 Climate variability and changes in crop production .............................................. 9 2.1.2 Adaptation concepts ............................................................................................... 9 2.2 Projected Climate over Ethiopia ................................................................................... 10 2.3 Policy Reviews of Climate change Impacts in Ethiopia ............................................... 12 2.4 Emission Scenarios in Climate Change ........................................................................ 13 2.5 Approaches Used to Assess Impact of Climate Changes on Agriculture ..................... 14 2.5.1 Agro-Economic models (Crop simulation models) ............................................. 15 2.5.2 Agro-Ecological Zone Models ............................................................................. 17 2.5.2.1 Ricardian cross-sectional approach ........................................................... 18 2.6 Empirical Studies Assessing Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture .................... 22 2.6.1 Empirical studies on Climate Change Impacts else where .................................. 22 2.6.2 Empirical studies on Climate Change Impacts in Ethiopia ................................. 24 2.7 Empirical Studies Assessing Perceptions and Adaptations to Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture .............................................................................. 27 2.7.1 Empirical Studies on Perception and Adaptations to Climate Change Impacts else where .............................................................................................................. 27 2.7.2 Empirical Studies on Perception and Adaptations to Climate Change Impacts in Ethiopia ............................................................................................................
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