Ribbon Seal Spotted Seal Bearded Seal Ringed Seal
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Spotted Seal Ribbon Seal Bearded Seal Ringed Seal Quantitative Assessment of Species Identification in Aerial Transect * National Marine Mammal Laboratory, Alaska Fisheries Science Brett T. McClintock , Erin E. Moreland, Joshua M. London, Shawn P. Dahle, Center, NOAA-NMFS, 7600 Sand Point Way NE, Seattle, WA 98115 USA Surveys for Ice-Associated Seals Gavin M. Brady, Erin L. Richmond, Kymberly M. Yano, and Peter L. Boveng *[email protected] Abstract Methods Results Discussion Technological advances have facilitated Image collection Analysis Examples of the top predictive characteristics for each species We generally found species and age class misidentification • Aerial transect surveys of ice-associated seal species We are able to estimate misidentification probabilities to occur across all species and observers. While species collection of vast quantities of photographic misidentification rates appear to be low for ribbon, bearded, • April and May in 2012 and 2013 by repeated sampling of multiple observers and treating data from aerial surveys of marine mammals. observations with positive confidence levels as truth. and ringed seals, we found spotted seals were frequently However, when it is difficult to distinguish • Eastern Bering Sea We performed our analysis in R using the rjags package, mistaken for other species, and ribbon seals in particular. species from a distance, reliable identification • Target altitude of 300 m, Canon 1Ds Mark III (21 MP) compared observer effects, and performed an additional We attribute this to observers generally being less confident about spotted seal observations and a tendency for spotted from aerial images can often be challenging. and Nikon D3X (24 MP) fitted with a 100 mm Zeiss lens. analysis assuming no observer effects. Target ground resolution for species identification (2 seals to resemble ribbon seals when their distinctive pelage For each observed species and age class, we performed This is the case for ice-associated seals, cm per pixel). Images were collected continuously at patterns are obscured or absent. Age class misidentification logistic regressions to identify the traits that best predicted Spotted seals: Ribbon seals: Bearded seals: Ringed seals: species for which global climate change a rate of approximately one frame per second with rates were similarly low across species, although we found the observed species and species confidence levels. minimal or no overlap. • Triad (two adults • One distinct • Within one body • Close to breathing evidence that pups may be slightly more likely to be has motivated intensive monitoring efforts with one pup) length of the ice edge hole To identify the traits that best explained the observed ribbon mistaken for non-pups. in recent years. We assess species and age Species ID data species, we first ignored observer confidence levels and • Dog-like snout • Red face • Football shaped treated the response as binary (e.g., SDP or not SDP; Fig. 1). • Two faint ribbons body Variation in both misidentification rates and confidence class identification from aerial images of four We randomly selected 716 images containing seals from • Long slender • Small head 10 flights during a one week period from 20-27 April 2012 To identify the traits that best predicted positive species levels among our observers suggest it may be important ice seal species (bearded seals, Erignathus foreflippers • Serpentine body • Neckband* that provided representative spatial coverage of the study identifications, we performed logistic regressions using • Tubular body to include observer effects in species distribution and • Offwhite and white position barbatus; ribbon seals, Histriophoca fasciata; area. These 716 images included 759 distinct seals for only the observations in which each particular species • Pup: 2/3 length of *effect only seen in aerial imagery abundance models that account for these sources of lanugo ringed seals, Pusa hispida; spotted seals, Phoca species and age class identification. and age class was identified (i.e., only those observations associated adult uncertainty. with guess, likely, or positive confidence levels for both largha) in the Bering Sea. We also investigate Four seal biologists assigned species to 600 photographed Our observers had differing levels of field and photo- the particular species and age class). For this second set Correct Species Identification Probabilities (95% CI) the specific phenomenological and behavioral individuals, and only one of two observers assigned species identification experience, and while experience is expected of analyses, we ignored age class confidence levels and to affect observer performance, we did not attempt to to the remaining 159 individuals. Species Probability of being identified correctly Most often misidentified as: traits commonly associated with species again treated the response as binary (e.g., positive SDP incorporate individual covariates as predictors in our model. For each trial, observers assigned a species, species or non-positive SDP; Fig. 2). For both sets of analyses, identification and observer confidence. Spotted 0.83 (0.80-0.86) Ribbon 0.11 (0.09-0.14) We instead included generic effects for each observer and We generally found species and age class identification confidence level (guess: < 50%, likely: 51-99%, the predictors were binary indicators for the presence or found strong evidence of differences among our observers. or positive: 100%), age class (pup, non-pup, unknown), and absence of each trait (below). misidentification occurred at relatively low Ribbon 0.97 (0.93-0.99) Ringed 0.01 (0.00-0.03) These differences could be attributable to many factors, age class confidence for pup or non-pup classifications Characteristics used to identify four species of ice-associated seal including (but not limited to) experience, personality, age, levels, but only 83% of spotted seals tended (guess, likely, positive). from aerial survey images. Bearded 0.96 (0.93-0.98) Spotted 0.03 (0.02-0.04) vision, and health. This remains an interesting avenue for to be correctly identified (with 11% mistaken Behavior future research. Characteristics Within 1 body length of edge on non-small ice floe Ringed 0.94 (0.92-0.96) Spotted 0.03 (0.02-0.04) as ribbon seals). We also found certain traits Prior to commencing the trials, a comprehensive list of On small ice floe (<2 body lengths) Our methodology can be used to assess the identifica- potential characteristics was compiled from extensive Close proximity to a maintained hole in ice floe tion process for a wide variety of species from aerial or were strong predictors for observed species, All species had a 1-2% chance of being assigned to the unknown species category. age class, or observer confidence. Our findings discussions with ice seal biologists. This included traits 3 or more associated non-pups satellite imagery and provides a mechanism for account- as seen specifically in aerial imagery, which were not Two non-pups associated with one pup ing for misidentification in models of species distribution add to the growing body of evidence that “Associated” with another seal within 6 body lengths Figure 1. Species and Age Class Identification Probabilities Figure 2. Species, Age Class, and Confidence Level Probabilities necessarily consistent with traits seen on the ground (e.g. >1 body length from edge on non-small ice floe and abundance. species misidentification is pervasive in white band around neck and serpentine body position). On non-small ice floe (>3 body lengths) No Observer Effects No Observer Effects passive sampling of animal populations. Even Assumptions Body shape or position low levels of misidentification have been • Any positive species or age observation is the true Short broad square fore flippers True species/age Tubular or “cigar-like” body shape SDP spotted seal pup demonstrated to induce substantial biases species or age class. SDN spotted seal non-pup Approximately 2/3 the length of an associated seal in estimators of species distribution and “American football” or “comma” shape RNP ribbon seal pup • Non-pups cannot be positively misclassified as pups. RNN ribbon seal non-pup Long, slender neck abundance, and it is important that statistical Long hindflippers BDP bearded seal pup • Positive species or age class confidence levels are correct, BDN bearded seal non-pup models account for such errors. and conflicting positive classifications are therefore not Long slender fore flippers Serpentine body position RDP ringed seal pup permitted. RDN ringed seal non-pup Slender posterior “Torpedo-like” or “elongated teardrop” shape Other fore flipper characteristics (not lsff or sbsff) Other body shape Observed species/age spotted seal Head ribbon seal bearded seal Beard-like vibrissae Observer Effects for Four Different Observers Observer Effects for Four Different Observers ringed seal Reddish coloration on face unknown seal Small blunt head relative to body size pup “T”-shaped pattern on forehead non-pup “Cat-like” face; compact features, short muzzle Other face type (not catlike or doglike) “Dog-like” face; wide skull, long muzzle Observer confidence Hash Pelage Color Density Confidence Light, uniform coat Low Guess White band around neck 1 or more distinct ribbons Medium Likely Dark coat with no spots High Positive 1 faint ribbon 2-3 faint ribbons White lanugo Off-white lanugo Mottled coat; spots or rings Track Alternating flipper pattern in tracks Serpentine track pattern Paired flipper pattern in tracks Straight track pattern The findings and conclusions in the paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA. Any use of trade, product, or firm names does not imply an endorsement by the U.S. Government. Funding for this study was provided by the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and by the U.S. Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (Interagency Agreement M12PG00017)..