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AN UNEVEN RECOVERY INTEGRATED OPERATORS FOUND THEIR FOOTING in 2017, WHILE GAS PRODUCERS STUMBLED Trusted Advisers to Canada’S Energy Industry

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AN UNEVEN RECOVERY INTEGRATED OPERATORS FOUND THEIR FOOTING in 2017, WHILE GAS PRODUCERS STUMBLED Trusted Advisers to Canada’S Energy Industry CONNECTING CANADIANS TO THEIR ENERGY / JUNE 2018 AN UNEVEN RECOVERY INTEGRATED OPERATORS FOUND THEIR FOOTING IN 2017, WHILE GAS PRODUCERS STUMBLED Trusted advisers to Canada’s energy industry Being a trusted steward of natural resources requires a business advisory firm that not only understands the energy industry, but leads it. Our energy audit practice brings experience from helping 39%* of Oilweek Top 100 companies achieve the highest levels of quality in assurance, a greater understanding of risk, and leverage of digital technology to make more informed decisions faster. This experience connects us first hand to the challenges and opportunities you face as you create the future. Contact us to discuss how KPMG can help. Michael McKerracher National Energy Leader T: 403-691-8056 E: [email protected] *Source: The Oilweek Top 100 Companies Canadian Production – June 2018 kpmg.ca © 2018 KPMG LLP, a Canadian limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG network of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Cooperative (“KPMG International”), a Swiss entity. All rights reserved. 20781 BROUGHT TO YOU BY KPMG CONTENTS 04 Canadian Public Company Financial Scorecard 05 2017 in Review 07 The Top 100: An uneven recovery 09 Top 100 Canadian companies by production 11 Oilsands operators have a good 2017, but major challenges remain 13 Top 80 Canadian companies by reserves 15 Top 80 Canadian companies by financial performance 17 Comeback in the Cardium 19 Top 25 oil producers 19 Top 25 producers with the highest field netbacks 20 Gas weighted operators struggle with over-supply 21 Top 25 Gas Producers 22 Another tough year for oilfield services 23 Top 40 publicly traded Canadian service and supply companies by revenues 24 Top 25 Canadian producers operating internationally 25 Top 20 international producers in Canada 3 POWERED BY BROUGHT TO YOU BY KPMG Revenues, Net Income and Cash from Big Five Integrated Operators Capture 2017 PUBLIC Operations Climbed in 2017 ($ billions) Most of Gains ($ billions) Revenues Revenues COMPANY 106.1 140.76 84.8 111.83 FINANCIAL SCORECARD 2016 2017 2016 2017 Net Income Net Income -1.8 12.39 2.77 11.5 2016 2017 2016 2017 Cash from Operations Cash from Operations 22.75 38.61 13.98 25.75 2016 2017 2016 2017 Other Senior Producers with Over 100,000 Companies with Between 25,000-100,000 Companies with Less than 25,000 boe/d boe/d of Production Also Saw Gains boe/d of Production Remained in the Red Struggled ($ billions) ($ billions) ($ billions) Revenues Revenues Revenues 10.2 13.46 7.05 9.87 3.96 5.6 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 Net Income Net Income Net Income -1.92 2.42 -1.86 -0.37 -0.79 -1.92 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 Cash from Operations Cash from Operations Cash from Operations 4.83 6.62 2.35 3.67 1.59 2.57 2016 2017 2016 2017 2016 2017 NOTE: BASED ON PERFORMANCE OF 80 PUBLIC COMPANIES 4 POWERED BY BROUGHT TO YOU BY KPMG 2017 IN REVIEW Prices rise Investors remain cautious Oil up, but heavy differential widens Alberta dominates spending ($billions CDN) 2015 2016 2017 2015 $17 $62.35 $57.75 $5 $53.85 $50.90 $4.40 $48.80 $44.80 $49.70 $0.50 $43.30 $39.00 WTI Crude $US/bbl Edmonton Light $C/bbl Western Canadian Select $C/bbl 2016 SOURCE: MCDANIEL & ASSOCIATES $11.20 $2.50 $2.80 $0.20 Rising Condensate and NGLs make rich gas profitable 2015 2016 2017 2017 $66.55 $60.30 $56.20 $35.55 $44.65 $19.10 $34.35 $28.90 $6.65 $13.15 $4.80 $4.30 $0.40 Condensate $/bbl Propane $/bbl Butanes $/bbl SOURCE: MCDANIEL & ASSOCIATES AB BC SK MB SOURCE: CANADIAN ASSOCIATION OF PETROLEUM PRODUCERS A natural gas price rollercoaster 2015 2016 2017 Oil wells drive licence rush $2.80 $2.40 $2.10 $2.10 2016 2017 $1.68 $1.88 3,782 1,440 6,398 1,737 AECO Spot Price $C/MMBtu British Columbia Station 2 $C/MMBtu SOURCE: MCDANIEL & ASSOCIATES Supply costs decline % change 69% 21% Gas and Oil weighted operators Oil Gas 2014 2015 2016 $28-$48 $58-$82 $19-$40 $45-$53 $19-$28 $32-$45 per boe per bbl per boe per bbl per boe per bbl Horizontal wells continue to dominate horizontal wells 7,945 were drilled in 2017 Gas Oil 86% of total wells SOURCE: TD SECURITIES 5 POWERED BY BROUGHT TO YOU BY KPMG Number of financial deals A jump in drilling activity in 2017 (excluding experimental wells) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2016 Totals 1,990 348 1,623 81 4,042 262 187 193 154 81 59 41 51 Debt Equity 2017 3,708 609 2,519 240 7,076 Gross proceeds ($billions CDN) 2014 2015 2016 2017 % change 86% 75% 55% 196% 75% 15.5 15.8 AB BC SK MB 11.5 9.2 12.0 6.3 3.3 5.3 Metres also climbed in 2017 (millions of metres) Debt Equity (excluding experimental wells) 2016 Totals 6.11 1.42 3.26 0.144 11.00 Where the industry spent its money 2015 2016 2017 $28.70 $27 $16.80 $23 $15 2017 $14 11.12 2.63 4.94 0.449 19.21 Oilsands WCSB Conventional (CDN $Billions) (CDN $Billions) % change 82% 85% 51% 200% 75% AB BC SK MB Development drilling Oil or bitumen was the climbed from 3,812 dominate target for wells wells in 2016 in 2017, accounting for Well licences show confidence going into 2018 to 74% 2016 Totals wells in 2017 6,791 3,523 394 2,395 126 6,448 of wells drilled The exploration 2017 well count The average depth/ 5,338 923 3,586 253 10,117 climbed from length of wells reached 2,700 257 metres wells in up from 2016 to 2,694 % change 306 metres in 2017 last year 52% 134% 50% 101% 57% SOURCE FOR ALL DATA NOT CITED: DAILY OIL BULLETIN AB BC SK MB 6 POWERED BY BROUGHT TO YOU BY KPMG AN UNEVEN RECOVERY INTEGRATED OPERATORS FOUND THEIR FOOTING IN 2017, WHILE GAS PRODUCERS STUMBLED BY DARRELL STONEHOUSE Canada’s publicly traded oil and gas producers saw a major turnaround in their fortunes in 2017 as higher prices and lower costs resulted in a combined $12.4 billion in net income, compared to a combined loss of around $1.8 billion in 2016. Revenues were up 33 per cent in 2017 from the previous year, reaching $140.1 billion. Cash from operations climbed to $38.6 billion, up 70 per cent from 2016. But the recovery was uneven, with the top five largest and integrated operators capturing 92 per cent of total net income, and almost 80 per cent of total revenues. “At current oil prices many companies can make money—not a lot of money—but they can make money,” says Michael McKerracher, National Industry Leader, Energy, KPMG in Canada. “But the truly integrated companies can be quite profitable. They have a better system of pipelines in place so market access issues are somewhat minimized and they have the benefit of downstream revenue.” Natural gas is a different story, says McKerracher. While operators with strong condensate or liquids production had a profitable 2017, those with mostly dry gas production faced difficulties, with prices turning negative for brief periods last summer. “Gas producers are just holding on,” he notes, adding that those with no choice but to market through the AECO system are facing the greatest challenges. McKerracher says market volatility is a new reality facing the industry as pricing swings become more extreme and price cycles become shorter as operators bring on new supplies more quickly. With prices uncertain, operators focused on lowering costs per barrel of oil equivalent produced in 2017, like in 2016. “Operators have driven lots of costs out of the system,” McKerracher says, adding this focus will continue through 2018, as “costs are controllable even if price isn’t.” The industry has seen a period of rapid change in the last two years as the widespread 7 POWERED BY BROUGHT TO YOU BY KPMG Michael McKerracher, National Industry Leader, Energy KPMG “MANY COMPANIES ARE SAYING THEY KNOW THEIR RESERVES AND NOW THEY NEED TO FIND THE MOST EFFICIENT WAY TO GET THEM OUT OF THE GROUND.” — Michael McKerracher, National Industry Leader, Energy KPMG application of technologies has opened “Technology has a huge role to play,” he money. They like the companies, they up an abundance of resources to says, pointing to the automation of drilling like the assets, but they don’t like the development, he notes. This is changing rigs to reduce manpower costs as one jurisdiction,” he explains. the focus from finding oil and gas to potential opportunity. Another example The federal government’s recent developing resources as effectively as is using automation and data analytics in takeover of the Trans Mountain pipeline possible. head offices. to ensure its construction is good news for “The industry will be moving to a “But you need cash flow to invest in the industry, says McKerracher, although manufacturing process over the next 10 technology,” he adds. he believes the fact the government had to years,” he explains. “Many companies are A second opportunity is through take over the pipeline to move it forward saying they know their reserves and now collaborative contracting. McKerracher doesn’t send a positive signal to investors. they need to find the most efficient way to says a number of operators are moving The upcoming final investment decision get them out of the ground.” away from the “three quotes” method of (FID) on the Shell-led LNG Canada project will While many operators saw improved contracting to longer-term relationships.
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