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Universidade De São Paulo Faculdade De Economia, Administração E Contabilidade Departmento De Administração Programa De Pós-Graduação Em Administração UNIVERSIDADE DE SÃO PAULO FACULDADE DE ECONOMIA, ADMINISTRAÇÃO E CONTABILIDADE DEPARTMENTO DE ADMINISTRAÇÃO PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM ADMINISTRAÇÃO TESE DE DOUTORADO GESTÃO DE PROBLEMAS SOCIAIS COMPLEXOS E DESENVOLVIMENTO HUMANO MANAGEMENT OF COMPLEX SOCIAL PROBLEMS AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT Hamilton Coimbra Carvalho Advisor: Dr. José Afonso Mazzon SÃO PAULO 2018 Prof. Dr. Vahan Agopyan Rector of University of São Paulo Prof. Dr. Adalberto Américo Fischmann Director of School of Economics, Business and Accounting Prof. Dr. Moacir de Miranda Oliveira Júnior Chief of Business Administration Department Prof. Dr. Moacir de Miranda Oliveira Júnior Coordinator of the Post-Graduation Program in Business Administration HAMILTON COIMBRA CARVALHO GESTÃO DE PROBLEMAS SOCIAIS COMPLEXOS E DESENVOLVIMENTO HUMANO MANAGEMENT OF COMPLEX SOCIAL PROBLEMS AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT Dissertation presented to the Business Administration Post-Graduate Program of the Business Administration Department of the School of Economics, Administration and Accounting, University of São Paulo, as a partial requirement for obtaining the title of Doctor of Science. Advisor: Dr. José Afonso Mazzon Versão original SÃO PAULO 2018 Autorizo a reprodução e divulgação total ou parcial deste trabalho, por qualquer meio convencional ou eletrônico, para fins de estudo e pesquisa, desde que citada a fonte. FICHA CATALOGRÁFICA Elaborada por Rafael Mielli Rodrigues – CRB-8/7286 Seção de Processamento Técnico do SBD/FEA/USP Carvalho, Hamilton Coimbra Management of complex social problems and human development / Hamilton Coimbra Carvalho. – São Paulo, 2018. 336 p. Tese (Doutorado) – Universidade de São Paulo, 2018. Orientador: José Affonso Mazzon. 1. Marketing social 2. Dinâmica de sistemas 3. Ciências da complexi- dade 4. Desenvolvimento humano 5. Pobreza I. Universidade de São Paulo. Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade. II. Título. CDD – 658.8 Mindware survives and spreads because of self-perpetuating properties of the mindware itself. (Keith Stanovich) I dedicate this dissertation to my children, Eduardo and Cecilia; my wife, Amanda; my niece, Juliana; my nephew, Pedro; my brother, Christiano; my mother, Maria Aparecida; my father, Hamilton (in memoriam); and my grandfather, Navantino (in memoriam). ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Words cannot express how grateful I am and always will be to Professor José Afonso Mazzon. From our first meeting, he has been the kindest human being and scholar one could hope to encounter in academic life. Everybody who has the privilege of knowing him and his work can easily understand what I am saying. He is characterized by rigor, high standards, thirst for knowledge, openness to new academic endeavors, honesty and an exceptional friendliness. Everybody knows that those traits, even in isolation, are rare in academia. Thus, it is clear how privileged I have been to be advised by Professor Mazzon. He has become my main role model in academia. I share with him a taste for integrative models that weave together different fields of knowledge to address relevant problems. Knowledge is too exciting and complex to be bounded by the artificial constraints of traditional academic disciplines. I still remember the day when I approached him to show him a chapter written by John Sterman, one of the giants in the field of system dynamics. I told him: “This is it! This kind of approach is what is missing in social marketing, and I would love to study it.” Without any sign of doubt, and probably affected by my enthusiasm, he immediately gave me the green light to pursue that path. I also remember the enthusiasm in his voice every time I reported academic progress, no matter how slight (the first time I was invited to review a paper for a social marketing journal, the invitation to join the board of the International Social Marketing Association and many other events). I will never forget the support he gave me during very difficult times in my personal life. Only the sensation of accomplishment in finishing this work is stronger than the nostalgia and gratitude I feel while I write these words. I was one among many that have had the privilege of having their mindware shaped by Professor Mazzon’s worldview and outstanding academic work. Now I am very happy to join the extensive but exclusive club that consists of his former advisees. For everything and a little more, thank you so much, Professor Mazzon! I must also acknowledge all the support and friendship I have received from the great people who are integral to Professor Mazzon’s professional and personal network: Jane Marques, Giuliana Isabella, Fabio Meletti, Adriana Cristo and Edson Oliveira. I thank Professors Joaquim Santos and Silvia Koller for their valuable comments during the qualifying exam. I thank Professor Joaquim Santos twice over for being such a valuable mentor in the field of system dynamics. Among the lessons that I have taken to heart, I cite his advice to define clearly what problem a system dynamics model is addressing. Indeed, this is probably the most underrated skill in management. I thank Professor Mike Radzicki at Worcester Polytechnic Institute for my short but precious stay at that institution. Finally, I thank all the friends and colleagues who have contributed ideas, support and encouragement from the beginning of this project: Eduardo Franco, Kleber Oliveira, Alvaro Junqueira, Alexandro Afonso, Ângelo de Angelis, Gustavo Theodoro, Marcos Takahara, Vinicius Matsumoto and my work colleagues. ABSTRACT Complex social problems have multilevel roots and intricate webs of causation. They arise at the intersection of several of the spheres that comprise modern life: the physical, biological, cultural, political, social, economic, technological and environmental. They challenge the limited cognitive capacities of human beings, as delays, nonlinearities, policy resistance and complex interactions between the different parts of a system produce unforeseen consequences and patterns of systemic behaviors that are difficult to anticipate. Incentivized by the short-term focus of the political system, policy makers tend to act on the most visible parts of problems, which are often not causes but symptoms. They produce policies that often lead to worse conditions over time. Learning in complex systems, on the other hand, is hindered, because feedback from policies is typically opaque and amenable to distortion. This study draws on the complexity sciences, system dynamics, social marketing and related fields to address the issue of human development. We first explore the characteristics of complex social problems, showing that disciplines such as social marketing, based on individualistic mindware, are ill equipped to address them. The dissertation defends the need for a new interdisciplinary field (complex social problems management) capable of dealing with the challenging social problems of our times. In particular, we focus on the replication of low human development across generations, discussing the concepts of poverty, well-being and human development as well as the conditions that foster the development of essential psychobiological mechanisms in the first years of life. The discussion encompasses the social ecosystems that constrain opportunities for the poor and reinforce detrimental structures that produce toxic stress and low attention to human capital. A broad causal loop diagram summarizes the feedback loops that explain the persistence of this phenomenon. Based on the discussion in the first three chapters, we present three system dynamics models in the subsequent chapters, each one addressing an aspect of the problem. The first model, which we call the Caped model, focuses on parents’ and children’s essential capabilities and on the social environmental demands that deplete parents’ psychological resources. The second model broadens the scope of the first and focuses on explaining why societies (in particular, Brazil) that are dominated by rent-seeking and extractive institutions produce detrimental social ecosystems. We uncover what seems to be a central mechanism, which is narrative (mindware) control. The third model deals with social change in general, and it aims to describe the channels and conditions by which that change occurs. It complements the analysis in the preceding chapters by identifying how a deep societal change toward the promotion of human development can occur. This dissertation contributes to the study of human development by employing a method that is suitable for modeling complex social problems. By identifying critical feedback loops and essential processes at the micro and macro levels, it provides integrative frameworks that complement research already conducted on the subject. From a practical perspective, the models can orient the design of better public policies and the design of adequate mindware for the discussion of human development. Keywords: social marketing, system dynamics, complexity sciences, human development, poverty. RESUMO Problemas sociais complexos possuem causas profundas e relações intrincadas de causalidade. Eles surgem na intersecção das diversas esferas que fazem parte da vida moderna: física, biológica, cultural, política, social, econômica, tecnológica e ambiental. Além disso, desafiam as capacidades cognitivas limitadas dos seres humanos, pois atrasos, não-linearidades, resistência a políticas e complexas interações entre as diferentes partes de um sistema produzem consequências não previstas e padrões de comportamentos
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