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Dynamics and Implications of Canada's Increasing Reliance On Dynamics and implications of Canada’s increasing reliance on emerging, expanding and established flatfish fisheries Jonathan A. D. Fisher, Arnault Le Bris, Devin Flawd, Brynn Devine, Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research, Fisheries and Marine Institute of Memorial University of Newfoundland. PO Box 4920, St. John’s, Newfoundland and Labrador, Canada [email protected] Dominique Robert, Institut des sciences de la mer, Université du Québec à Rimouski, CP 3300, Rimouski, Québec G5L 3A1, Canada Some recent flatfish dynamics (Canadian halibut landings) 80 Greenland halibut (Atlantic) 60 Atlantic halibut Pacific halibut Greenland halibut (Arctic) 60 50 40 40 30 20 20 Landings value (millions) Landings value (millions) Landed values from DFO, Nunavut 10 Fisheries Management Board Landed values from DFO 0 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 North too… ECNASAP (1995) data via R. Pettipas, Dominant flatfishes in Atlantic Canada DFO Mean number per tow (1970-1994) Canadian Atlantic groundfish dynamics 1960-2016 Canadian groundfishgroundfish landingslandings (non-flatfish) Canadian flatfish landings 101066 Avg. 66% 99.8% Atlantic cod per year (1960-1991) 95.9% 85.4% 101055 Avg. 55% American 96.4% plaice per year Canadian landings (mt) landings Canadian (1960-1991) 95.8% (mt) landings Canadian 4 % population declines 10104 (1960s-1990s) 19601960 19701970 1980 19901990 20002000 20102010 Data from NAFO Groundfish collapses were followed by lucrative opportunities • In Newfoundland and Labrador, shrimp, snow crab, turbot currently dominate landings value (80% of total) – cold water preferences and strong contributions to food webs as predators and prey = potentially impacted first/strongest by changing ocean conditions? Snow crab (L. Wheeland, CFER) Northern shrimp Greenland halibut (V. Howse, CFER) Past economic transition from finfish to shellfish Early 2000s • Social and cultural Early 1990s importance too • Landings and values Early 1990s are used to Early 2000s Early document changes 1990s Early 2000s in fisheries, not stock sizes Newfoundland and Labrador landed values from DFO Atlantic regional warming observations DFO. 2017. Oceanographic conditions in the Atlantic zone in 2016. DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Advis. Rep. 2017/031. “Bottom water temperatures off the East Coast of Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) have been increasing since the mid-1990s and are expected to remain high or continue to increase (more gradually) for more than a decade to about 2030…” “Since the mid to late 2000s signals of a change in community structure started to emerge. Shellfish started to decline, and traditional groundfishes began to increase…Recent trends suggest that the system may be reverting back to a groundfish-dominated fish community, but the future structure of that ecosystem will not necessarily be similar to that of the previous groundfish-dominated ecosystem.” Northeast coast of Newfoundland (NAFO 2J3KL) DFO. (2014) Short-Term Stock Prospects for Cod, Crab and Shrimp in the Newfoundland and Labrador Region (Divisions 2J3KL). DFO Can. Sci. Advis. Sec. Sci. Resp. 2014/049. Towards additional fisheries/economic transitions? Why consider flatfish fishery dynamics now? • Consistent increases in flatfish volume (1% per 0.7 Landings volume Landing value year) and flatfish value (2% 0.6 per year) within total groundfish landings since 0.5 1990 (DFO data) 0.4 • Atlantic halibut, Greenland halibut, ‘flounders (ns)’ 0.3 ranked 1,2,3 price per kg since 2013 (DFO data) 0.2 • Prop. flatfish in groundfish 0.1 landings vol. now highest (NAFO data) 0.0 Proportion flatfish of total groundfish total of flatfish Proportion 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Why consider flatfish dynamics now? • History of increased effort on flatfish when other options are limited – 1990s Greenland halibut NAFO (2017) Greenland halibut stock assessment & management strategy evaluation. SCS Doc. 17-15 Why consider flatfish dynamics now? • History of increased effort on flatfish when other options are limited – 1990s Greenland halibut NAFO (2017) Greenland halibut stock assessment & management strategy evaluation. SCS Doc. 17-15 Return towards past landings composition? • 1960-2016 Canadian flatfish landings data from NAFO (9 species/groups) • Bray-Curtis similarity through time • Continued divergence from landings composition • Similar temporal patterns within regional scale (e.g., GSL, NE NL, Grand Banks, Scotian Shelf What drove changes in landings composition? 1.0 1.8 • Diversity of American plaice landings Greenland halibut 0.8 composition 1.6 lowest in recent 0.6 years 1.4 • Catches driven 0.4 by few species 1.2 • Increasing Diversity Shannon 0.2 importance of 1.0 Greenland volume landings of Proportion halibut 0.8 0.0 Landed values from NAFO 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Are there other ways to evaluate past and current flatfish fisheries’ performance? Fryexell 1 • Assumptions • Can bio-economic theory be applied to evaluate fisheries efficiency? • Developed a Ricker-recruitment index, linked to price flexibility, fisheries effort • Question: how does price change affect harvest and where do fisheries operate along the equilibrium curve? Can they derive targets for rebuilding? • Data needs for evaluation: normalized landings, normalized price/kg (adjusted for consumer price index) Feed cheap fish to the world Let them eat cake! • Provides targets for fisheries rebuilding • Illustrates how some stocks may be fished towards ‘extinction’ • Can be tested with widely available data… Fryxell et al. (2017) Supply and demand drive a critical transition to dysfunctional fisheries. PNAS. Empirical support for predictions? • Authors used 50 years of US Atlantic cod data, Pollock data from NOAA/NMFS Fryxell et al. (2017) Supply and demand drive a critical transition to dysfunctional fisheries. PNAS. Atlantic flatfish data to test this bio-economic model? • Canadian landings 1960- 2010 • 8 species flatfish complex • Thought experiment… Walsh et al. (2014) Atlantic flatfish fisheries. In: Flatfishes: biology and exploitation How do Atlantic flatfish landings data fit within this model? Aggregate flatfish landings, $ adjusted for consumer price index 1.0 Price 1.0 Harvest 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 Harvest 0.4 Harvest 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 Price Data derived from Walsh et al. (2014) Atlantic flatfish fisheries. In: Flatfishes: biology and exploitation Greenland halibut – changing distribution of quotas and catch 50000 40000 Southern stock 30000 20000 Northern stock 10000 0 Canadian Greenland halibut landings halibut (mt) Greenland Canadian 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Flatfish fisheries expansions – Greenland halibut beyond NAFO 0A? • Collaborative fisheries explorations near northern communities outside NAFO (2013-2015) • Waters <900 m sampled, few Greenland halibut Jones Sound Resolute OA Arctic Bay Brynn Devine, unpublished data. Flatfish fisheries expansions – Greenland halibut beyond NAFO 0A? • Cold ~shallow northern waters may explain absence of Greenland halibut near coastal communities • ~2 degrees below established fishing areas Brynn Devine, unpublished data. Flatfish fisheries expansions – Atlantic halibut benefits beyond Canadian fisheries? • 3N Canadian and international landings 800 Canada International 600 400 200 Atlantic halibut landings (mt) landings halibut Atlantic 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Flatfish fisheries expansions – Atlantic halibut benefits beyond Canadian fisheries? • 3M Canadian and international landings 1400 Canada 1200 International Equal to 2017 Gulf of 1000 St. Lawrence 800 quota! 600 400 200 Atlantic halibut landings (mt) landings halibut Atlantic 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 What future for flatfish fisheries in Atlantic Canada? 0.6 ??? 0.5 0.4 2016 0.3 0.2 Proportion of Proportion flatfish 1993 in total groundfish landings 0.1 1960 0 200000 400000 600000 800000 Groundfish total Canadian landings (mt) Summary and Implications • Changing ocean conditions in eastern Canada lead to new questions on sustainability and future fisheries • Flatfish represent a larger proportion of Groundfish landings, now most concentrated among fewest species (Atlantic halibut, Greenland halibut = long-lived flatfishes) = narrow portfolio • Flatfishes are increasingly explored as lucrative fishing opportunities • Few signs of flatfish fisheries return to former composition or dominance • Future unknown; expanding portfolio requires recoveries; interactions with other established/emerging fisheries a concern for future (yellowtail flounder > redfish > cod) Acknowledgements.
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