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HEARING ON CHINA'S MILITARY POWER PROJECTION AND U.S. NATIONAL INTERESTS HEARING BEFORE THE U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ONE HUNDRED SIXTEENTH CONGRESS SECOND SESSION THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2020 Printed for use of the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission Available via the World Wide Web: www.uscc.gov UNITED STATES-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION WASHINGTON: 2020 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION ROBIN CLEVELAND, CHAIRMAN CAROLYN BARTHOLOMEW, VICE CHAIRMAN Commissioners: ANDREAS A. BORGEAS THEA MEI LEE BOB BOROCHOFF KENNETH LEWIS JEFFREY L. FIEDLER HON. JAMES M. TALENT HON. CARTE P. GOODWIN MICHAEL R. WESSEL ROY D. KAMPHAUSEN LARRY M. WORTZEL The Commission was created on October 30, 2000 by the Floyd D. Spence National Defense Authorization Act for 2001 § 1238, Public Law No. 106-398, 114 STAT. 1654A-334 (2000) (codified at 22 U.S.C. § 7002 (2001), as amended by the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act for 2002 § 645 (regarding employment status of staff) & § 648 (regarding changing annual report due date from March to June), Public Law No. 107-67, 115 STAT. 514 (Nov. 12, 2001); as amended by Division P of the “Consolidated Appropriations Resolution, 2003,” Pub L. No. 108-7 (Feb. 20, 2003) (regarding Commission name change, terms of Commissioners, and responsibilities of the Commission); as amended by Public Law No. 109- 108 (H.R. 2862) (Nov. 22, 2005) (regarding responsibilities of Commission and applicability of FACA); as amended by Division J of the “Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2008,” Public Law Nol. 110-161 (December 26, 2007) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission, and changing the Annual Report due date from June to December); as amended by the Carl Levin and Howard P. “Buck” McKeon National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2015, P.L. 113-291 (December 19, 2014) (regarding responsibilities of the Commission). The Commission’s full charter is available at www.uscc.gov. Back to Table of Contents CONTENTS THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2020 CHINA’S MILITARY POWER PROJECTION AND U.S. NATIONAL INTERESTS Opening Statement of Commissioner Larry Wortzel (Hearing Co-Chair) .........................................................................................................5 Prepared Statement ...........................................................................................................7 Opening Statement of Commissioner Jeffrey Fiedler (Hearing Co-Chair) .........................................................................................................8 Prepared Statement ...........................................................................................................9 Administration Perspective Administration Panel Introduction by Commissioner Larry Wortzel (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................10 Statement of Chad Sbragia Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, U.S. Department of Defense .........11 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................14 Panel I: Question and Answer............................................................................................21 Panel I: Rationales for China’s Power Projection Panel I Introduction by Commissioner Jeffrey Fiedler (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................35 Statement of Admiral Dennis Blair Distinguished Senior Fellow (Non-Resident), Sasakawa Peace Foundation USA ........36 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................38 Statement of Kristen Gunness Chief Executive Officer, Vantage Point Asia, LLC; Adjunct Senior International Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation ..........................................................................................49 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................51 Panel I: Question and Answer............................................................................................62 Panel II: Building an Expeditionary Force: Hardware, Logistics, and Bases Panel II Introduction by Commissioner Larry Wortzel (Hearing Co-Chair) .......................................................................................................80 Statement of Chad Peltier Senior Analyst, Consulting, Jane’s ................................................................................81 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................84 Statement of Kevin McCauley Independent Analyst .......................................................................................................97 Prepared Statement .........................................................................................................99 Statement of Isaac Kardon, Ph.D. Back to Table of Contents Assistant Professor, Strategic and Operational Research Department, U.S. Naval War College .........................................................................................................................132 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................136 Panel II: Question and Answer ........................................................................................152 Panel III: China’s Power Projection in Asia, Africa, and Latin America Panel III Introduction by Commissioner Jeffrey Fiedler (Hearing Co-Chair) .....................................................................................................166 Statement of Greg Poling Director, Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative, Center for Strategic and International Studies ..........................................................................................................................167 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................170 Statement of Paul Nantulya Research Associate, Africa Center for Strategic Studies, National Defense University ......................................................................................................................................181 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................183 Statement of Cynthia Watson, Ph.D. Dean of Faculty and Academic Affairs, National War College, National Defense University .....................................................................................................................193 Prepared Statement .......................................................................................................195 Panel III: Question and Answer ......................................................................................202 ANSWERS TO QUESTIONS SUBMITTED FOR THE RECORD Statement of Chad Sbragia Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for China, U.S. Department of Defense .......215 Statement of Isaac Kardon, Ph.D. Assistant Professor, Strategic and Operational Research Department, U.S. Naval War College .........................................................................................................................216 Back to Table of Contents CHINA’S MILITARY POWER PROJECTION AND U.S. NATIONAL INTERESTS THURSDAY, FEBRUARY 20, 2020 U.S.-CHINA ECONOMIC AND SECURITY REVIEW COMMISSION Washington, DC The Commission met in Room 2172 of Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC at 9:00 a.m., Commissioner Jeffrey Fiedler and Commissioner Larry Wortzel (Hearing Co-Chairs) presiding. OPENING STATEMENT OF COMMISSIONER LARRY WORTZEL HEARING CO-CHAIR CO-CHAIR WORTZEL: Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to the second hearing of the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission's 2020 annual report cycle. And thank you for joining us, especially to our witnesses for the time and effort that they put into the testimonies. You're going to be treated to some really, really good thinking here today. We'd also like to thank the House Foreign Affairs Committee for securing this room for our use today. Today's hearing examines China's ability to project military power and influence beyond its shores. And the implications of these growing capabilities for U.S. interests. In January 2016, after Chinese Communist Party General Secretary and Central Military Commission Chairman Xi Jinping reorganized the People's Liberation Army (PLA), this Commission explored the push toward making the PLA a force more capable of conducting global operations. And I think Commissioner Fiedler was the Co-Chair for that one too. Four years later, we're examining what progress the PLA has made in fulfilling Chairman Xi's admonition to the military, to be able to protect China's international interests. Now, as part of the Commission's contracted research, Jane's is preparing a report on China's logistics capabilities for expeditionary operations. And that should be published in about a month, we hope. This afternoon you're going to hear from Chad Peltier, who is the lead author of the Jane's report. And he's going to discuss some of its main findings. That's Panel Two this afternoon, I think at one o'clock. But, let me just stop a minute and say, first of all, the sky is not falling. This is not
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