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05AM Monday.P65 15 1/18/2005, 10:17 AM and the Main Measurements to Be Taken Are Also Put Forward in the Future Chinese Alumina Production TECHNICAL PROGRAM Moscone West Convention Center; San Francisco, California USA; February 13-17, 2005 MONDAY After a long period without greenfield projects, the Aluminium Alumina and Bauxite: Industry Trends and industry is currently considering several greenfield Bauxite/Alumina Developments opportunities worldwide. Many of these potential projects however Sponsored by: Light Metals Division, LMD-Aluminum Committee have difficulty to meet threshold criteria used by the industry for their Program Organizers: Dag Olsen, Hydro Aluminium AS, Porsgrunn economic evaluation. This paper provides an insight in aspects of this 3907 Norway; Travis Galloway, Century Aluminum, Hawesville, KY issue, and it compares the economics of brownfield with greenfield AM MONDAY 42348 USA; Halvor Kvande, Norsk Hydro ASA, Oslo N-0240 Bauxite/Alumina projects. It concludes with suggested directions that Norway could be explored to improve greenfield project economics. 9:45 AM Monday AM Room: 2005 Complex System of Long-Term Forecasting of World Markets February 14, 2005 Location: Moscone West Convention Center of Primary Aluminium and Alumina: B. Arlyuk1; 1Alumconsult Ltd., 2, Shkiperski protok, St. Petersburg 199106 Russia Session Chair: Victorio Siqueira, CVRD, Alumina Business, Rio de The complex system of the long-term forecast of the markets of Janeiro, RJ 20030 900 Brazil primary aluminium and metallurgical alumina, taking into account their mutual connections and influence is developed. The system is based on the analytical description of the market connections deter- 8:30 AM mining a sales volume and the prices of aluminium and alumina. It has Bauxite Mining Sustainably: Patrick Riley Atkins1; 1Alcoa, Inc., allowed to limit the amount of empirical factors in comparison to 390 Park Ave., New York, NY 10022 USA usually used econometric approach and has provided the comprehen- Beginning in 1990, The international Aluminum Institute began a sible significance of model. For an estimation the consumption of program to report on the bauxite mineing and rehabilitation activities primary aluminium at the West the forecasts of development the of the worldwide industry. A survey process was initiated and reports economics in the Western countries is used, which is characterized by were published in 1992, 1998 and 2004. The recently published 2004 cyclic change of indexes of industrial production. The degree of capac- report includes extensive data on mines that represent over 70% of ity utilizations of smelters and refineries or the volume of supply of the world’s output of bauxite. This paper describe the latest report and the market in turn depends on a level of the world prices for aluminium will focus on the mine rehabilitation technologies,progress and perfor- and spot prices for alumina. Thus, the system of the forecast takes mance, on company/community interactions and the sustainability into account presence of a plenty feedback as inside subsystems of the goals of the industry. forecast of the market of aluminium, and also alumina, and between 8:55 AM these markets. The developed complex system allows to forecast a Bauxite Supply to the Aluminum Industry - An Update and degree of capacity utilization of aluminium smelters and alumina re- New Perspective: William Boyd Morrison1; 1William B. Morrison & fineries in Western countries, balance of supply/consumption of met- Associates, 3115 Bayo Vista, Alameda, CA 94501 USA allurgical alumina and aluminium, alumina spot and contract prices and Decisions on bauxite feed sources affect and direct the very founda- prices of primary aluminium at LME. Thus as the initial information tion of the alumina refinery siteing process. The chemical and min- the forecast of input of new capacities and change of the Western eralogical composition of the bauxite feed determine process configu- world industrial production are used. Identification of the developed ration and facility design as well as overall project economics. This system on the actual quarter data for the period since 1990 till 2004 is drive for an assured source of “quality” bauxite is an ongoing one that executed and the empirical factors of model providing forecasting of never ceases. Existing refineries are continually confronted with baux- the world markets of aluminium and alumina with comprehensible ite supply issues. These issues dictate the needs to a refinery for: accuracy are determined. The developed system is used for a long term Utilization of the geologically best possible sources located at the best forecasts of the world markets of primary aluminium and metallurgical geographic position. Delivery at a reasonable cost. Consistency in alumina up to 2015. processability. Stability in supply. Minimization of environmental risk. More and more the emphasis today for existing alumina refineries is 10:10 AM Break on the word “assured.” As the industry’s alumina refineries age, so do 10:20 AM their bauxite sources. What was once good, cheap, and abundant may Fundamental Research on Alumina Production of the Future not be so now. It should be noted that no new “world class” sources on in China: Qingjie Zhao1; Qiaofang Yang1; 1Zhengzhou Research bauxite have been developed recently. This paper revisits a previous Institute Aluminium Corporation of China, Ltd, R&D Dept., 82,Jiyuan study performed five years ago by again focusing upon the bauxite Rd., Shangjie Dist., Zhengzhou, Henan 450041 China supply situation as it exists in the industry today. The review covers Analyzed is the present research situation on production technol- both existing bauxite sources as well as potential new ones. In doing so ogy and fundamental theory in the alumina industry, and discussed is it addresses bauxite requirements from the refinery perspective and the future research situation on it. It is proposed that the developing bauxite production from the source perspective. Differing from the trends of alumina production technology depends on the two factors, previous paper additional emphasis is placed upon the needs and re- one is that the great achievements obtained should be popularized to quirements associated with the initial efforts to identify and confirm intensify the process and reduce energy consumption and cost, the potential sources of bauxite through more comprehensive, reliable and other is that new process and technology should be developed rapidly. target oriented geological analysis. The following will focus upon the The core of the fundamental theory is to provide theoretical and bauxite supply situation. Identify where supply problems will emerge if technological support for simplifying the process flow, improving they have not already arisen. Revisit the potential for developing new efficiency, reducing the enery consumption and optimizing the pro- sources. Evaluate these sources much more extensively from a geo- duction target. logical perspective. Look at the economic and political issues of sup- ply and finally update the former cost comparison between existing 10:45 AM and potential bauxite sources. The Comprehensive Energy Saving in China Alumina Indus- try: Lijuan Qi1; Songqing Gu1; 1Zhengzhou Research Institute Alumi- 9:20 AM num Corporation of China, Ltd., R&D Dept., 82,Jiyuan Rd., Shangjie Greenfield Dilemma - Innovation Challenges: Peter-Hans ter Dist., Zhengzhou, Henan 450041 China Weer1; 1TWS Services and Advise, Imkerweg 5, Huizen 1272 EB The In this paper, analysed are both the present energy consumption of Netherlands chinese alumina production and the factors affecting energy consump- tion. The trends of energy consumption in the Chinese alumina pro- duction are also proposed, and the key technologies to be developed TMS 2005 Annual Meeting: Technical Program 15 05AM Monday.p65 15 1/18/2005, 10:17 AM and the main measurements to be taken are also put forward in the future Chinese alumina production. Aluminum Alloys For Packaging MONDAY AM MONDAY Sponsored by: Light Metals Division, LMD-Aluminum Committee Program Organizers: Subodh K. Das, Secat, Inc., Coldstream Alumina and Bauxite: Bayer Process Chemistry: Research Campus, Lexington, KY 40511 USA; Gyan Jha, ARCO Part I Aluminum Inc, Louisville, KY 40223-4032 USA Sponsored by: Light Metals Division, LMD-Aluminum Committee Program Organizers: Dag Olsen, Hydro Aluminium AS, Porsgrunn Monday AM Room: 2002 3907 Norway; Travis Galloway, Century Aluminum, Hawesville, KY February 14, 2005 Location: Moscone West Convention Center 42348 USA; Halvor Kvande, Norsk Hydro ASA, Oslo N-0240 Norway Session Chairs: Subodh K. Das, Secat Inc., Lexington, KY 40511 USA; Gyan Jha, ARCO Aluminum Inc., Louisville, KY 40223-4032 Monday AM Room: 2005 USA February 14, 2005 Location: Moscone West Convention Center 8:30 AM Session Chair: Robert Bitsch, Alcan, Bauxite & Alumina, Cedex, Aluminium Short Term Price Forecast. Speculations on For- Gardanne, 13541 France wards, Hedging the Sales: B. Arlyuk1; 1Alumconsult Ltd., St. Pe- tersburg 199106 Russia 11:10 AM The system has been developed for quantitative and qualitative Layered Double Hydroxides in the Bayer Process: Past, Present forecasting of primary aluminium prices at LME up to 3 months ahead and Future: Steven Philip Rosenberg1; Lyndon Armstrong2; 1BHP using LME daily parameters, as well as monthly statistic data on indus- Billiton, Bauxite & Alumina Tech. Ctr., PO Box 344, Collie, Western trial production indices in Western countries, IP and Dow Jones in- Australia 6225 Australia; 2Alcan, Queensland R&D Ctr., PO Box 883, dexes at USA. The prices
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