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South London Sub Regional Economic Assessment 2010 For the South London Partnership Early Draft for Consideration by Partners Under no circumstances should any part of this document be used or quoted without permission Team: Kingston University Dr P. Garside Professor Sarah Sayce Billy Clements Kingston College Peter Phipps South London Business Alena Harvey 1/ South London Sub Regional Economic Assessment: Introduction 1.1 An Introduction to the South London Sub Region (SLSR) The sub-region is defined as the seven London Boroughs of Bromley, Croydon, Royal Borough of Kingston upon Thames, Merton, Richmond upon Thames, Sutton and Wandsworth (Figure 1.1). Figure 1.1 The SLSR within the London City Region. Source: CERI, Kingston University For many years the SLSR has been viewed as part of the Outer London belt which has been characterised as: “On most indicators, Outer London is healthier, wealthier and greener than Inner London and indeed most urban areas in the UK. Its residents overall are highly satisfied with life in their neighbourhood, but would like to see improvements on some very local environmental issues, including crime, litter and anti-social behaviour.” 1 This localised caricature has dominated the discourse defining the SLSR for several decades and has reinforced both the image and the function of the area, within the wider regional economy, as a residential dormitory provider of highly qualified senior and managerial staff. Ultimately, this perception has simultaneously reproduced the highly centralised development patterns of the broader city region (which includes the Outer Metropolitan Area – OMA2) and reemphasised the associated notion that the separate Outer London economies are concealed around localised retail and public services. 1 GLA 2007 Outer London: Issues for the London Plan http://static.london.gov.uk/mayor/strategies/sds/london_plan/outer_london_issues_lon_plan.rtf 2 GLA Economics: Economic Evidence Base to support the London Plan, the Transport Strategy and the Economic Development Strategy, Page 26. 1 This (highly dominant) stereotype has, over the last five years, been challenged through responses to the draft London Plan, the development of Sub Regional Development Plans and a more critical academic understanding of the complex nature of the Outer London economy3. This movement has lead to the production of the Mayor‟s Outer London Commission report4 which provides a more holistic understanding of the outer London economy and attempts to offer a less centralised development scenario than has previously been advocated for the city region. However, this is only a small step against decades of growth based upon unsustainable processes of development, which the report fails to fully acknowledge in terms of the possible consequences. Figure 1.2 Adapted Key Diagram for the London City Region Source: CERI, Kingston University The actual SLSR is artificial in construct and as such it is not a self-contained sub-region. It has a long and varied history of development that underpins its contemporary linkages, mostly based upon the urban sprawl of London subsuming previous county towns, producing the now metropolitan centres, spill over residential estates and linear growth patterns along radial transport routes. As part of the wider city region it is no surprise there are significant labour market, business, leisure and educational linkages with adjoining areas. South London functions within London‟s wider central area and is influenced by proximity to central 3 Gordon, I (et al - LSE) (2009) London‟s Place in the UK Economy 2009-10 published by the City of London. 4 http://www.london.gov.uk/olc/questions/final-report.jsp 2 London and the city. It is also influenced by the western corridor, London Fringe, M25 towns, Gatwick corridor, Thames Gateway, Surrey and Kent. Figure 1.2 shows the linkages and corridors that are determined to affect the area from a city region perspective and the structural make up of all the sub regions. But this is based on current wisdom that tends to reinforce the centralised flow patterns that historically have created the current unsustainable circumstances. Whilst the population of the area has increased since 1990 by 180, 000 (from 1,513,900 to 1,693,900) relative to London as a whole the area has witnessed a slight decline in terms of its population as a percentage of the wider region (from 22.3% in 1990 to 21.8% on 2009). This is primarily due to higher growth rates in central London and indicates that the area has generally maintained a growth rate broadly in line with the rest of the region. However, this simple regional comparison masks a wide variety of more complex demographic issues within the area as displayed in Figure 1.3 and which will also be illustrated later in this report. Figure 1.3 Characterisation of the Population within the SLSR Source: CERI, Kingston University 3 In terms of previous work that has been undertaken to characterise the economic structure of the SLSR5 there is a reasonable consensus on its strategic areas, but certainly not on its development capacity. “South London‟s key strategic areas are the Wandle Valley running through the centre of the sub-region, the River Thames to the north and west, Crystal Palace, the metropolitan centres of Bromley, Croydon, Kingston and Sutton and town and district centres.”6 The detail of these locations and the specific development sites within the area are shown in Figure 1.4. This is an attempt to represent the sum of the parts of the sub region by visually bringing together the respective sites and assets the area has to offer. It also represents the infrastructure within the area and is very much a characterisation of the different locations. However, this is also a very static picture of the sub region and does not reveal the full nature of the linkages and flows through the area. These are explored through the various sections within this assessment, because they are as equally important for understanding the existing economic processes at work in the area, as they are for defining the future challenges of the area and the wider region. Figure 1.4 Key Strategic Areas with the SLSR Source: CERI, Kingston University To supplement this overview of the sub region a wide range of local documents were examined to assess the key issues facing each borough council. These were collated and 5 South London Partnership: South London Sub Regional Prospectus, Sub regional Development Plan, Sub Regional Economic Development Implementation Plan (with Action Plan) and the Overview of Key Issues Facing South London (for the Outer London Comission). 6 South London Partnership: South London Economic Development Implementation Plan. 4 synthesised into a key issues matrix (Appendix 1). This level of detail is not appropriate to include in the main text, however it clearly demonstrates the commonalties and differences across the sub region, mainly in terms of the vulnerability of the area and its perceived potential. The main issues are: Economic High levels of economic activity – all LAs above GL average Public sector (Health particular) and consumer services employment important contributor to economy Diversity of occupation/economic base Importance of retail (consumer services) throughout sub region – Key met. centres of Kingston, Croydon, Bromley with network of smaller district and local centres – economies Industrial base to economy remains a key asset (Wandle belt) Importance of leisure/visitor economy sector to local economies SMEs constitute a major proportion of economy at LA level o Growth of SMEs in financial/business services sector (pre-recession) and creative industries (increasingly media) - environmental sector seen as potential growth sector due to reputation o Self-employment levels run relatively high throughout the sub-region o Use of business support networks varied Loss of large corporates to London and South East (e.g. Surrey) an issue Lack of established commercial/industrial clustering – indistinct commercial identity Healthy enterprise and entrepreneurship levels (based upon VAT reg/dereg) and high levels of self-employment o Varied longer term survival rates Employment and Skills Low workplace based earnings/higher resident earnings Outcommuting (outflow of labour) particularly higher skilled residents o Lack of high skilled positions (senior and management) to retain high skilled residents – losing to Central/West London boroughs Local variances in labour skills – large gaps between high skilled residents and identified pockets of low skills base, deprivation and unemployment 5 High proportion of lower skilled jobs within the sub-region Practical skills gaps identified by local employers in some areas (Business Surveys) Infrastructure and Linkages Need improvements in transport infrastructure to support economic prosperity of the sub- region (both into London, cross sub region and orbital) o Where strong transport infrastructure is in place (Richmond, Merton) seen as a major asset Building on links with major transport networks and facilities – Gatwick, London Underground, Biggin Hill Important potential of linkages with South East (Surrey, Kent), M25/M4 areas and the Gatwick triangle (identified high growth areas) – both physically and economically o Identification of upstream/downstream supply chain linkages with these areas Land Use and Property Loss of employment land to other development (particularly residential uses) Lack of new, quality commercial accommodation

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