Risk Analysis and Naval Architecture in the Period 1950-2010 David
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INSTITUTIONEN FÖR FILOSOFI OCH TEKNIKHISTORIA AVDELNINGEN FÖR TEKNIK- OCH VETENSKAPSHISTORIA Risk analysis and naval architecture in the period 1950-2010 David Ericsson Date 14/5 - 2011 Date of opposition 15/4 – 2011 Mentor Hjalmar Fors Dag Avango Opponent Karl Bruno Risk analysis and naval architecture in the period 1950-2010 Abstract This thesis treats the historical development of the marine industry worldwide and its relation to risk analysis during the 60 year period of 1950 to 2010. The relation between the two is found through analysis of what risks connect the two and drive the development of technology and legislation during different time periods. There is little to no previous research on this particular subject particularly using a risk perspective of complex systems. To do this it became necessary to write a summary of the development of the maritime industry in technological and legislative terms, in modern time, while at the same time revealing clear insights in how this development works. The summary is based on a wide variety of different sources, and therefore gives a reasonably accurate description of the development given the period and scope looked at. Generalizing the development is found to be that risks force legislative changes, and that technological development is sometimes responsible for causing the risks. That said, many technological developments also help reduce overall risk. The major conclusion drawn is that when a risk is acknowledged there is a conscious effort made to minimize or eliminate it, which in turn is a development, a system change of sorts that might have generated new risks. Overall the evolution of the maritime industry has led to a system that is resilient towards risks, yet that still responds to risks actively and often rather efficiently once they become apparent. 1 Risk analysis and naval architecture in the period 1950-2010 Contents Introduction ............................................................................................................................................4 Purpose...............................................................................................................................................4 Research questions..............................................................................................................................4 Theory.................................................................................................................................................5 Naval nomenclature ........................................................................................................................5 A brief description of Naval Architecture .........................................................................................5 Risk analysis applied to the maritime sector.....................................................................................8 Method .............................................................................................................................................11 Previous research ..............................................................................................................................12 Sources..............................................................................................................................................12 Source criticism .................................................................................................................................12 Disposition ........................................................................................................................................14 On the author....................................................................................................................................15 A brief description of the maritime industry during the first half of the 20 th century..............................16 Background .......................................................................................................................................16 The 1950s – 1960s: Postwar advances...................................................................................................18 Technological changes.......................................................................................................................18 Notable accident ...............................................................................................................................20 Environmentalism begins to show in politics......................................................................................22 The International Maritime Consultative Organization’s first meeting................................................23 A brief summary of the period...........................................................................................................23 The 1960s – 1970s: Environmentalism takes form .................................................................................25 Important changes ............................................................................................................................25 An update to SOLAS is needed...........................................................................................................26 Torrey Canyon disaster......................................................................................................................27 The 1970s oil crisis.............................................................................................................................28 Resulting changes..............................................................................................................................28 Environmental awareness becomes a top priority..............................................................................29 Safety Of Life At Sea becomes more versatile ....................................................................................30 2 Risk analysis and naval architecture in the period 1950-2010 A brief summary and discussion of the period ...................................................................................31 The 1980s to early 1990s: A shift from West to East ..............................................................................33 Technological changes allow more work performed in an office ........................................................33 Rise of the East..................................................................................................................................34 Piracy problems in South China Sea ...................................................................................................35 Herald of Free Enterprise Disaster .....................................................................................................37 Exxon Valdez disaster ........................................................................................................................40 The Estonia Disaster ..........................................................................................................................40 Summary of the period......................................................................................................................42 The late 1990s-2010: Internationalization advances ..............................................................................44 Technology becomes more and more computerized..........................................................................44 Piracy off western Africa and in the Persian Gulf................................................................................45 Fighting piracy...................................................................................................................................46 Summary of what happened in the period.........................................................................................47 Conclusions ...........................................................................................................................................48 References ............................................................................................................................................53 In alphabetical order .........................................................................................................................53 End notes ..........................................................................................................................................57 3 Risk analysis and naval architecture in the period 1950-2010 Introduction Purpose The purpose of this thesis is to investigate how risks have affected the development within and of the marine industry. The idea is to attempt to achieve an overview of the correlation between development and the risks the marine industry has faced from roughly the 1950s until 2010 as well as how this has changed throughout the period. Research questions An attempt will be made at determining which trends can be seen in the development of the industry. Part of this will be done by attempting to discern which the governing forces that drive the development for suitable periods from the 1950s until today. Furthermore, these forces should be discussed as to whether they are characteristic to most history for the time periods they describe. Considering that the relative importance of risks is likely seen differently during the different time periods the governing forces are expected to vary between periods.