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Bandhan Bank (BANBAN) | 490 Target : | 600 Target Period : 12 Months Potential Upside : 22%

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Bandhan Bank (BANBAN) | 490 Target : | 600 Target Period : 12 Months Potential Upside : 22% Initiating Coverage June 7, 2018 Rating matrix Rating : Buy Bandhan Bank (BANBAN) | 490 Target : | 600 Target Period : 12 months Potential Upside : 22% Best yields with lower cost of funds; unique model Fundamental summary (| crore) Bandhan Bank is a unique business model of high yielding micro finance FY17 FY18E FY19E FY20E loan portfolio (94% priority sector fulfilment) and low cost deposit NII 2403 3032 4348 5790 franchise with 34.3% CASA offered in the ambit of a commercial bank. It PPP 1793 2430 3567 4656 was the only MFI to receive a universal banking licence from the RBI in PAT 1112 1346 2018 2612 2014 led by Founder, MD and CEO, Chandra Shekhar Ghosh, who has 37 years of experience in the Indian microfinance industry. Valuation summary Bandhan Bank, with 13-14% market share, operates 936 branches and (x) FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E P/E 48.3 43.4 29.0 22.4 2,764 dedicated doorstep services centres servicing ~1.3 crore Target P/E 59.1 53.2 35.5 27.4 customers in 33 states. East and northeast (West Bengal, Bihar, Assam) P/ABV 12.2 6.3 5.3 4.4 are its stronghold. FY18 AUM was at | 32340 crore a PAT at | 1346 crore. Target P/ABV 15.0 7.8 6.6 5.4 Investment Rationale P/BV 12.1 6.2 5.2 4.3 RoE (%) 28.6 19.5 19.6 21.1 Consistent track record of quality growth, banking adds positive leg RoA (%) 4.4 3.6 4.0 4.0 Bandhan MFI was one of the few institutions to sail through the AP crisis (2011), demonetisation (2016), farm loan waivers, etc. It has demonstrated Stock data stellar growth at ~90% CAGR in those 10 years. Even in the last five Particulars Values years, advances grew at 51% CAGR. In bank, AUM has grown from Market Capitalisation | 58232 crore | 15,578.4 crore as of FY16 to | 32,340 crore as of FY18 while customer Networth | 9382 crore base has increased to ~1.3 crore. Micro credit forms 86% of loan book 52 week H/L (|) 540 / 455 while retail, SME together are still small. Asset quality is strong at 1.2% Equity Capital | 1193 crore GNPA ratio. We expect 38% CAGR in loans to | 61546 crore by FY20E. Face Value (|) 10.0 DII Holding (%) 1.9 Strong deposit franchisee in short span, high CASA offers low CoF FII Holding (%) 10.1 Bandhan Bank has focused on building a strong deposit base and has grown from zero as of August 23, 2015, to | 33,869 crore in FY18. Current Comparative Return Matrix (%) and savings account deposit (CASA) was at | 11,617 crore, constituting 1M 3M 6M 12M 34.3% of deposits. CASA provides stable low-cost funding with CoF now Bandhan -8.5 NA NA NA at 6.7%. We expect deposits growth at ~31% with CASA ratio ~36%. Ujjivan -4.2 4.3 1.3 29.1 Only 6% of deposits come from MFI clients. Majority of deposits come Equitas 5.0 9.0 10.0 5.5 from bank branch customers while 80% of the same is retail. Price Movement * listed in March 2018 Strong NIMs, low cost-to-income lead to above par return ratios, BUY Net interest margin (NIM) was at 9.8% for FY18. With low cost funds, we 12,000 520 expect NIM to sustain at ~9% even as the bank starts building non-micro 10,000 500 loans. Along with higher NIM, low operating cost at ~35% C/I ratio 8,000 remains its key differentiator, high RoA driver. Its opex to AUM ratio was 480 6,000 at 4% for FY18. We expect high RoA of 3.5-4%, RoE >20% to sustain. 4,000 460 With almost double NIM, RoA vs. HDFC Bank & lower C/I ratio, with no 2,000 440 legacy corporate portfolio pains, we believe Bandhan Bank will command Jun-18 May-18 May-18 May-18 higher premium to HDFC Bank. At CMP of | 490, the stock is available at 4.4x FY20E ABV of | 111. On P/E basis, it is available at 22.4x FY20E Price (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) earnings of | 22 EPS. Valuing the bank at 5.4x FY20E ABV, we arrive at a target price of | 600. We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation. Exhibit 1: Financial Summary Research Analyst Key Financials FY17 FY18 FY19E FY20E Kajal Gandhi Net Profit (| crore) 1,112.0 1,345.6 2,018.2 2,612.2 [email protected] EPS (|) 10.2 11.3 16.9 21.9 Vasant Lohiya ABV (|) 40.0 77.2 91.6 110.8 [email protected] P/E (x)* 48.3 43.4 29.0 22.4 Vishal Narnolia P/ABV (x)* 12.2 6.3 5.3 4.4 RoE (%)* 28.6 19.5 19.6 21.1 [email protected] ROA (%)* 4.4 3.6 4.0 4.0 * Dip in multiple and return ratios is due to capital raising (IPO) in FY18 Source: RHP, Company, ICICI Direct Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Company Background Shareholding pattern (FY18) Shareholder Holding (%) Bandhan started as Bandhan Konnagar in 2001 as a non-governmental Promoter 82.3 organisation (NGO) providing microfinance services to socially and Institutional Investors 11.4 economically disadvantaged women in rural West Bengal. Bandhan Others 6.3 Financial Services (BFSL) started its microfinance business in 2006. The Source: BSE NGO transferred its microfinance business to BFSL in 2009. Thus, the entire microfinance business was undertaken by BFSL from 2009. Top Shareholders (%) Exhibit 2: Bandhan's performance as NBFC until FY15 BFHL (Parent company) 82.30 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 CALADIUM INVESTMENT PTE LTD 4.58 NII (| crore) 402 358 535 750 IFC 2.94 PAT (| crore) 226 218 294 430 IFC FIG 1.59 Loans (| crore) 3103 4097 5801 8309 AXIS ASSET MANAGEMENT CO LTD 0.99 GNPA % 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.6 SBI FUNDS MANAGEMENT 0.43 RoE % 34.9 27.3 28.3 31.1 SIDBIADITYA BIRLA SUN LIFE ASSET 0.29 RoA % 5.4 4.5 4.8 5.0 MGMT 0.29 KOTAK MAHINDRA 0.13 Source: Company, ICICI Direct Research GHOSH CHANDRA SHEKHA 0.12 Source: Bloomberg On April 9, 2014, RBI granted an in-principle approval to BFSL to set up a scheduled commercial bank in the private sector. Upon receipt of the in- principle approval, BFSL and Bandhan Bank entered into a business transfer agreement to transfer all of BFSL’s existing microfinance business, including all assets, liabilities, accumulated profits and entire infrastructure, along with a wide consumer base to the bank. By the time BFSL transferred its microfinance business to the bank, it was India’s largest microfinance company with AUM of ~| 8309 crore and ~70 lakh customers. With historical strength in the microfinance segment, Bandhan Bank, which began operations on August 23, 2015, is now a commercial bank focused on serving underbanked and underpenetrated markets in India. As can be seen in the above exhibit, Bandhan’s performance before becoming a bank has been superior on all fronts. Loans have increased at 39% CAGR while earnings have risen at 24% CAGR to | 430 crore in FY12-15. Asset quality remained stable while return ratios were one of the best in the industry. However, post becoming a bank, the superior performance has continued. It started operations with 501 branches in 24 states across India as of August 23, 2015. As of FY18, the number of ATMs and dedicated doorstep services centres (DSCs) was at 430 and 2764 vs. 50 and 2022 as of August 23, 2015, respectively. The bank’s branches have expanded to 936 servicing ~1.3 crore (1.06 crore micro and 25 lakh general banking customers) customers in 33 states. The advances book as on FY18 was at | 29713 crore. The bulk of the book i.e. ~84% is related to micro loans while the balance is towards SME and other retail loans segment. Bandhan Bank has the highest MFI portfolio within banks. It is 3x its closest competitor SBI’s MFI portfolio at ~| 6130 crore. The management has indicated that, going ahead, the major focus will continue to be on micro finance. We expect total AUM to witness a CAGR of 38% in FY18-20E to | 61546 crore. ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Exhibit 3: Break up (segment wise) of advances (net) (|crore) FY16 FY17 FY18 Gross advances (AUM) 15,578 23,543 32,340 Net advances (O/s Loan Book) 12,438 16,839 29,713 Micro loans 12,278 14,684 25,024 Small enterprise loans - 1,050 1,639 SME loans 100 710 1,641 Other retail loans 60 390 1,409 Source: RHP, ICICI Direct Research In terms of area of operations of the bank, east and northeast India (especially West Bengal, Bihar, Assam) are strongholds for the bank with a substantial presence in terms of branches, DSCs, proportion of deposits and advances. As of December 2017, ~65% of branches are in eastern and north-eastern India. In terms of advances, ~80.8% of loans comprises the east and north-eastern regions. However, the bank is focusing on developing a pan-India network to achieve geographical diversification. Accordingly, the bank has increased its footprint to 33 states and union territories from 24 states and union territories at the commencement of banking operations. Exhibit 4: Geographical break up of gross advances (Q3FY18) (|crore) Region Loan Portfolio Central 2,123 Eastern 14,186 Northern 880 Northeastern 5,522 Southern 351 Western 1,302 Gross Advances 24,364 Source: RHP, ICICI Direct Research On the deposit front, the book has grown from zero as of August 23, 2015 to | 33869 crore as on FY18, with CASA ratio at ~34.3% and retail-to- deposit ratio at 85.07%.
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