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Sergiy Korsunsky.Pdf Issue 2 (2), 2015 ARMENIA AZERBAIJAN VYSHEGRAD 4 VYSHEGRAD UKRAINE ENERGY SECURITY ENERGY EASTERN PARTNERSHIP PIPELINESREVISION POLICY NEIGHBOURHOOD DCFTA POLITICS TURKEY CHOICE TRADE ECONOMYFINANCIAL CRISIS BLACKASSOCIATION SEA FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT UNION EUROPEAN • Politics vs Economy • EnErgy Security • AssociAtion AgrEEmEnts UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (2), 2015 1 Issue 2 (2), 2015 BOARD OF ADVISERS Politics vs Economics Dr. Dimitar Bechev (Bulgaria, Research fellow, London School of Economics and Social Science) Dr. Iulian Chifu (Romania, Director of the Editors Conflict Analysis and Early Warning Center) Dr. Hanna Shelest Dr. Igor Koval (Ukraine, Rector of Odessa Dr. Mykola Kapitonenko National University by I.I. Mechnikov) Dr. Sergey Minasyan (Armenia, Deputy Publisher: Director at the Caucasus Institute) Published by NGO “Promotion of Intercultural Cooperation” (Ukraine), Stephan Meuser (Germany, Director of Centre of International Studies (Ukraine), the Representation of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Ukraine and Belarus) Representation of the Friedrich Ebert with the financial support of the Foundation in Ukraine. James Nixey (the United Kingdom, Head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs) academic/analytical journal in English UA: Ukraine Analytica is the first Ukrainian language on International Relations, Politics Dr. Róbert Ondrejcsák (Slovakia, Director of and Economics. The journal is aimed for Center for European and North Atlantic Affairs) experts, diplomats, academics, students interested in the international relations and H.E., Dr. Oleg Shamshur (Ukraine, Ambassador Ukraine in particular. Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Ukraine to France) Contacts: Dr. Stephan De Spiegeleire (The Netherlands, website: http://ukraine-analytica.org/ Director Defence Transformation at The Hague e-mail: [email protected] Center for Strategic Studies) Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/ ukraineanalytica Ivanna Klympush-Tsintsadze (Ukraine, Twitter: https://twitter.com/UA_Analytica Member of the Parliament of Ukraine) Dr. Dimitris Triantaphyllou (Greece, Director of the Center for International and European Studies, Kadir Has University (Turkey)) Dr. Asle Toje (Norway, Research Director at the Norwegian Nobel Institute) UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (2), 2015 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS TO BUILD A FOREIGN POLICY CAPABLE OF DEVELOPING . .3 Interview with Hanna Hopko, MP, Head of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of the Parliament of Ukraine for UA: Ukraine Analytica AT THE RIGHT TIME IN THE RIGHT SHAPE . .8 Amb. Andri Veselovsky EASTERN PARTNERSHIP UNDER RECONSTRUCTION: THE UKRAINIAN TEST. .18 Hennadiy Maksak FACTORS INFLUENCING THE PERCEPTION OF AZERBAIJAN IN RELATIONS WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION . 25 Rovshan Ibrahimov EASTERN EUROPEAN REGIONAL COOPERATION AFTER CRIMEA: THE ART OF THE POSSIBLE . 32 Iryna Maksymenko POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE EU’S AUTONOMOUS TRADE PREFERENCES FOR UKRAINE . 41 Anton Kuchukhidze LIVING IN SUSTAINED UNCERTAINTY. THE BLACK SEA REGION AFTER THE 2008 GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS . 48 Panayotis Gavras and Panagiota Manoli ENERGY PROJECTS AROUND THE BLACK SEA: GEOPOLITICS VS. ECONOMY . 56 Amb. Sergiy Korsunsky POLITICS VS. ECONOMY IN EUROPEAN ENERGY AFFAIRS AND THE ROLE OF UKRAINE . 63 Andrii Chubyk 2 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (2), 2015 ENERGY PROJECTS AROUND THE BLACK SEA: GEOPOLITICS VS. ECONOMY Amb., Dr. Sergiy Korsunsky, Ambassador of Ukraine to Turkey In the 21st century, it has become even whims because it has its own natural gas clearer that political considerations come sooner than economy when global goals assuming an important role of a transit and concepts are at stake. Unfortunately, stateand oil.to Weadd areeven now more witnessing visibility Turkey to its it will be an exaggeration to say that the already well-deserved position among the contemporary globalized world is ruled Organisation for Economic Co-operation by markets only. More and more often and Development (OECD), G-20 and NATO economy follows political decisions and member states as a country with a strong that brings turmoil into the well-being of industrial base. even the most developed members of the international community. Number one area of such unbalanced approach is energy, in Europe knows too well that particular oil and gas. diversification of energy «sources and routes as well as There is a number of economic factors the development of gas pipelines that determine the political weight of a infrastructure inside Europe is a key for its national security volume of GDP and amount of foreign investments,particular country. GDP Itper is capita,definite export/that a import ratio and technological strength Next year will mark the 10th anniversary are among them. But in case of Eurasia, as a whole, and the Black Sea region in Ukraine. Since the harsh 2005/2006 winter, particular, this list is not complete without of the first gas war Russia opted against energy infrastructure considerations. of energy sources and routes as well as the For example, in terms of GDP or level developmentEurope knows of too gas wellpipelines that diversificationinfrastructure of technology, Russia cannot compete inside Europe is a key for its national with the vast majority of the EU member states and yet it is an important supplier the potential of the Caspian basin came of natural gas to Europe and oil to the intosecurity. fruition Slow while but definite Russia efforts started to tounlock lose world market. Ukraine is an indispensable its strategic importance because of the part of this supply chain as a transit hub, unwise pricing policy, shadow business although country’s GDP is far below schemes and most recently its aggression its potential. Iran, Turkmenistan and against Ukraine. Here Turkey came into the picture as a major emerging link between of all because of their carbohydrates the enormous potential of Azerbaijan, resources.Azerbaijan Romaniaare important is able toplayers conduct first its Turkmenistan and Iran on one side, and foreign policy independently of Russia’s European consumers on another. It is 56 UA: Ukraine Analytica · 2 (2), 2015 expected that being a candidate country for Russian energy geopolitics the EU membership and a seasoned NATO member Turkey will play its role well. The state of Russia’s gas sector is dire. Gas production has been falling for several years It is not an easy task. There is no doubt that if Russia stopped seducing Ankara with a downfall of almost 20 percent. To save its highly suspicious proposals, Turkey would facein a row the and Russian in the firstGovernment half of 2015 made it reached those follow the most logical path of becoming data secret since July 2015100. Gazprom a transit hub for all sources of natural was taken to arbitrage in Stockholm after gas coming to Europe from the Caspian several consumers demanded price cuts basin and even the Middle East. But such based on market realities. Some of them, a development will be a major geopolitical including Poland, succeeded. The most blow to Russia. The leaders in Kremlin feel striking case is the recent appeal of the threatened with democratic developments Turkish state petroleum pipeline company in Ukraine and its rapprochement with the European Union. Moscow has developed a Commerce to resolve a row over the price policy of bypassing Ukraine with politically ofBotaş Russian to thegas afterInternational two countries Chamber failed toof motivated gas pipeline projects. been saying it had obtained a 10.25 percent On January 1, 2016, the Deep and sign a deal. Since February 2015, Botaş has Comprehensive Free Trade Zone between (bcm) of gas it buys from Russia each year Ukraine and the EU will enter into full force butdiscount the two on sidesthe 28-30 have beenbillion at cubic loggerheads meters to deep and comprehensive dissatisfaction of over the deal for months101 Russia, making things worse. Being desperate also Turkey’s state pipeline operator, said to achieve its political goals with political . Botaş, which is harassment and direct bribery of corrupt Gazprom of arbitration aiming to cover politicians of Yanukovich’s government, thein its price statement of Russian that itnatural had notified gas purchased Russia’s since the beginning of the year. If Gazprom’s infrastructural projects threatening to bypass Ukraine,Moscow createddiminish a itsfictional value realityfor Europe of energy as a its disputes in court, what would one transit country and block any alternative expect“strategic from partner” Gazprom like Botaşin relation has to resolveto less valuable consumers? This Turkish-Russian controlled by Gazprom. Only after a two-year dispute is only one of many, including anti- “soaproutes opera” from Eastworth to 5 Westbillion other USD thanRussia those had monopoly investigation against Gazprom in to abandon the politically motivated South the EU, which as well has a terrible smell of widespread corruption. from the economic point of view and this exampleStream project.allowed It Europeans was initially to learnunjustified a lot Russian president Putin made a surprise about the Russian way of shaping foreign announcement about the plans to construct policy. Let us take a closer look at what is a new “Turkish Stream” pipeline that going on around the Black Sea since Russian had to replace the failed “South Stream” propaganda mastered the creation of a project during his December 1, 2014 parallel reality to perfection. visit to Turkey102. Since then the Russian
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