Minnesota's Hot Elections: the Legislative
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Minnesota’s Hot Elections: The Legislative Elections to Watch Center for the Study of Politics and Governance Humphrey School, University of Minnesota Lawrence Jacobs Professor (612) 625-3384 Timothy Callaghan PhD. Candidate The battle for control over the state legislature may be the most competitive elections this fall in Minnesota. GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney is not actively campaigning in Minnesota and incumbent U.S. Senator Amy Klobuchar enjoys large double-digit leads in the polls. Two constitutional amendments attract strong advocates on each side; the statewide public interest in them is less clear. The GOP won their legislative majorities by narrow margins in 2010 – less than 700 votes account for the Republicans’ majority in the House, while only several thousand votes leveraged Senate Republicans into the majority. Can the GOP hold their majorities as turnout rises – as it often does – during a presidential election? The DFL will need to win a net gain of 6 seats in the House to pull even at 67 and 4 seats to reach a majority of 34 seats in the Senate. What will it take for the GOP to retain their legislative majorities? Most of the 201 legislative seats are safe or generally favor one party. The most competitive seats stand out because of the close election in 2010 and the GOP’s success in winning these close contests. A few dozen red hot seats will determine control over the Minnesota legislature. The GOP faces a daunting – but not insurmountable – challenge in retaining their majorities. The GOP’s Challenge to Hold Majority in Minnesota House Twelve of the most competitive House districts are held by Republicans; only 4 of the most contested districts are being defended by DFL. This creates an advantage for House Democrats – they can win the majority by picking up 6 of these 12 competitive GOP seats if they hold their other districts. The 16 battleground House districts to watch are presented in Table 1. The GOP’s Challenge to Hold Majority in Minnesota Senate The GOP’s challenge to hold their Senate majority is a bit less daunting than in the House but remains significant. Five of the six most competitive Senate districts are held by Republicans. The DFL’s easiest path to regaining the majority would be to grab from these vulnerable GOP seats as well as picking up the safe DFL seat left open when Sen. John Harrington resigned in September. Table 2 lists the 6 hot Senate contests to watch. Legislative Wild Cards Redistricting scrambled a number of races by changing the boundaries of districts. Both parties may find redrawn districts more competitive, introducing significant uncertainty. The close GOP wins in 2010 rested on strong turnout for Republican candidates and a dip in turnout for DFL candidates. Turnout in 2012 will be higher and broader owing to the presidential contest. The absence of a sustained Romney campaign in Minnesota, the weak performance by Kurt Bills’ U.S. Senate campaign, and the advocacy on both sides of the constitutional amendments introduce unpredictability in turnout. Even small dips or rises by either party may have enormous effects on legislative elections in Minnesota. Given the uncertainty, we are watching a group of legislative races where incumbents are paired up and the candidates are particularly compelling (see Table 3). Table 1. Most Competitive Minnesota House Races Third 2010 District Party Margin of Victory 2012 2010 DFL Candid by Party District District GOP Candidate Candidate ate GOP won by 0.12* 14B 15B King Banaian Zach Dorholt N/A Brian GOP won by 0.2*# 20B 25B Wermerskirchen David Bly N/A William GOP won by 0.38* 27A 27A Rich Murray Shannon Savick Wagner 1B 1B Deb Kiel Marc DeMers N/A GOP won by 1.01* DFL won by 1.16 24B 26B Dan Kaiser Patti Fritz N/A DFL won by 1.21 17A 20B Tim Miller Andrew Falk N/A 20A 25A Kelby Woodard Ryan Wolf N/A GOP won by 2.06 10B 3B Dale Lueck Joe Radinovich N/A GOP won by 2.45%* Laurie GOP won by 4.02* 51B 38B Doug Wardlow Halverson N/A Patrick GOP won by 4.81* 26B 30B Mike Benson Stallman N/A GOP won by 4.84* 2A 2B Dave Hancock Roger Erickson N/A GOP won by 4.91* 39B 56A Kathy Lohmer Tom DeGree N/A Zachary GOP won by 5.26* 17B 13B Bruce Vogel Mary Sawatzky Liebl GOP won by 5.38* 51A 38A Diane Anderson Sandra Masin N/A 5A 4A Larry Howes John Persell N/A DFL won by 6.40% 25B 29B Melissa Valeriano Kim Norton N/A DFL won by 6.76% Incumbent candidate is put in bold; no candidate is in bold in races lacking incumbent *Flipped GOP in 2010 #Open Seat Table 2. Most Competitive Minnesota Senate Races Third Party 2010 District Margin 2012 2010 DFL Candida of Victory by Party District District GOP Candidate Candidate te 28 31 Jeremy Miller Jack Krage N/A GOP won by 1.58%* 14 15 John Pederson Jerry McCarter N/A GOP won by 1.73%* 20 25 Michael Dudley Kevin Dahle N/A GOP won by 2.59*# 2 2 Dennis Moser Rod Skoe N/A DFL won by 5.99% 24 26 Vern Swedin Vicki Jensen N/A GOP won by 8.65% GOP won by 8.75%* 26 30 Carla Nelson Kenneth Moen N/A Incumbent candidate is put in bold; no candidate is in bold in races lacking incumbent *Flipped GOP in 2010 #Open Seat Table 3. Watch List of Important Races HOUSE DFL GOP 3rd Party (IP) 5B Tom Anzelc Carolyn McElfatrick 20A Ryan Wolf Kelby Woodard 27A Shannon Savick Rich Murray William Wagner 42A Barb Yarusso Russ Bertsch 42B Jason Isaacson Ken Rubenzer 43A Stacey Stout Peter Fischer 48A Yvonne Selcer Kirk Stensrud 49A Ron Erhardt Bill Glahn 49B Paul Rosenthal Terry Jacobson 51A Sandra Masin Diane Anderson 51B Laurie Halverson Doug Wardlow 53A JoAnn Ward Pam Cunningham SENATE 4 Ken Eken Phil Hansen 5 Tom Saxhaug John Carlson 17 Lyle Koenen Joe Gimse 36 John Hoffman Benjamin Kruse 37 Alice Johnson Pam Wolf 39 Julie Bunn Karin Housley 49 Melisa Franzen Keith Downey 51 Jim Carlson Ted Daley Incumbent is put in bold .