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IRG38 W8 MB Politics Detailed

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IRG38 W8 MB Politics Detailed Manitoba Politics Public Opinion Research in the Time of COVID-19: Release Date: June 12, 2020 Field Dates: May 29, 2020 to June 03, 2020 June 2020 Update STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL 2 Spotlight on Manitoba Politics The COVID-19 outbreak has set off a series of changes in the Canadian political landscape. In Manitoba, a plurality rated Brian Pallister as the best Premier compared to other party leaders. Pallister's favourability is reflected in the vote intention of respondents with the Progressive Conservatives leading in combined vote by 10 points over both the Liberals and the NDP. Today, INNOVATIVE is releasing a spotlight on Manitoba from wave 8 of our COVID-19 Tracking survey. This online survey was in field from May 29th to June 3rd with a weighted sample size of 200 Manitoba residents. Detailed methodology is provided in the appendix. This report covers key results on how those from Manitoba are rating their government’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak, their vote choice, and satisfaction with government handling of several issues related to the outbreak. 3 Government Approval The Manitoba government continues to receive strong support on their response to the COVID-19 outbreak; with an increase in intensity of approval compared to May. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL COVID-19 Handling Tracking: Shift in intensity of approval as ‘strongly 4 approve’ is up 10 pts from May 2020 while net approval is stable Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Manitoba Government has handled the outbreak of COVID-19? [asked of all respondents; n=200] y Net Approve June '20 28% 33% 15% 12% 8% 4% +41% x May '20 18% 41% 20% 15% 4% 2% +39% Strongly approve Somewhat approve Neither approve nor disapprove Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know Current data: June 2020 5 Leadership Pallister remains the top choice for Premier. However, Dougald Lamont has the highest net favourability compared to other party leaders in Manitoba though many do not recognize him or know whether they are favourable or not. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Leader Favourables: Brian Pallister has the strongest favourability ; 6 though Dougald Lamont of the Liberal Party leads in net favourable Below are the names of several individuals who have been mentioned in the news recently. For each one, please indicate whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a very favourable, somewhat favourable, neither favourable or unfavourable, somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate. [asked of all respondents; n=200] y Net Favourable Dougald Lamont 7% 19% 30% 11% 7% 15% 12% +8% x Brian Pallister 15% 20% 24% 14% 19% 2% 6% +2% Wab Kinew 9% 22% 19% 17% 20% 4% 9% -6% Very favourable Somewhat favourable Neutral/Neither favourable nor unfavourable Somewhat unfavourable Very unfavourable Do not recognize Don't Know Current data: May 2020 Dougald Lamont Favourability: Net favourable is up 5-points 7 compared to previous month for Lamont, moving from +3% to +8% Below are the names of several individuals who have been mentioned in the news recently. For each one, please indicate whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a very favourable, somewhat favourable, neither favourable or unfavourable, somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate. [asked of all respondents; n=200] y Net Favourable June '20 7% 19% 30% 11% 7% 15% 12% +8% x May '20 5% 15% 35% 11% 6% 15% 13% +3% Very favourable Somewhat favourable Neutral/Neither favourable nor unfavourable Somewhat unfavourable Very unfavourable Do not recognize Don't Know Current data: June 2020 Brian Pallister Favourability: As respondents shift from a favourable 8 impression to neutral, net favourability falls 6-points since May Below are the names of several individuals who have been mentioned in the news recently. For each one, please indicate whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a very favourable, somewhat favourable, neither favourable or unfavourable, somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate. [asked of all respondents; n=200] y Net Favourable June '20 15% 20% 24% 14% 19% 2% 6% +2% x May '20 17% 26% 17% 16% 19% 1% 3% +8% Very favourable Somewhat favourable Neutral/Neither favourable nor unfavourable Somewhat unfavourable Very unfavourable Do not recognize Don't Know Current data: June 2020 Wab Kinew Favourability: As both favourable and unfavorable 9 impression increases compared to May, net favourable remains stable Below are the names of several individuals who have been mentioned in the news recently. For each one, please indicate whether you have heard of that person and, if so, whether you have a very favourable, somewhat favourable, neither favourable or unfavourable, somewhat unfavourable or very unfavourable impression of that person. If you do not recognize the name, just indicate. [asked of all respondents; n=200] y Net Favourable June '20 9% 22% 19% 17% 20% 4% 9% -6% x May '20 9% 18% 24% 13% 21% 7% 8% -6% Very favourable Somewhat favourable Neutral/Neither favourable nor unfavourable Somewhat unfavourable Very unfavourable Do not recognize Don't Know Current data: June 2020 Best Premier: 1-in-3 (33%) say Pallister would make best Premier, 4-pts 10 down from May 2020, but remains the top among the three leaders Which of the following leaders would make the best Premier of Manitoba? [asked of all respondents; n=200] y June '20 33% 17% 15% 1% 7% 28% x May '20 37% 17% 13% 2% 4% 26% Brian Pallister, PC Party Wab Kinew, NDP Dougald Lamont, Liberal Party Other None of the above Undecided/Don't know Current data: June 2020 11 We group individuals into segments based on key political and economic values and attitudes We use these segments throughout the remainder of the report to analyze vote leadership results. STRICTLY PRIVILEGED AND CONFIDENTIAL Core Political Values: Over 3-in-5 (63%) say governments should focus 12 on needs rather than ability to afford programs Now we would like to ask a few questions about basic values and Is the main role of government to…? society...When governments make major decisions concerning spending [asked of all respondents; n=200] on programs and services, do you think they should be basing their decisions mainly on…? To create equal opportunity so that [asked of all respondents; n=200] everyone can compete on their own to be 62% the best they can be To redistribute wealth so that the poor Their ability to afford the programs and 27% and disadvantaged have more than they 30% services would if left on their own The public's need for the programs and 63% services Don't know 7% Don't know 10% Which of the following statements comes closest to your view? When it comes to government decision making, which of the following [asked of all respondents; n=200] statements is closest to your view? [asked of all respondents; n=200] The profit system brings out the worst in 40% Too often the government listens to experts human nature. 43% instead of common sense. The profit system teaches people the Provincial issues are complicated so 45% value of hard work and success. government should listen to experts when it 45% comes to policy. Don't know 15% Don't Know 12% Current data: June 2020 Value Clusters: Most (32%) are Business Liberals followed by Thrifty 13 Moderates (18%), Left Liberals (17%) and Core Left (16%) Value clusters: Clusters are based on 4 basic values: equal opportunity versus redistribution; trust in the profit system; whether spending should be based on ability to afford or public need; and whether government should listen to experts or common sense. [asked of all respondents; n=200] Deferential Conservatives, 10% Core Left, 16% Populist Conservatives, 7% Thrifty Moderates, 18% Business Liberals, 32% Left Liberals, 17% Current data: June 2020 Defining Value Clusters: 6 value clusters are defined by 4 key political 14 values Core Political Values by Value Clusters Deferential Populist Business Thrifty Column % Left Liberals Core Left Conservatives Conservatives Liberals Moderates Governments should base Ability to afford 90% 62% 0% 0% 79% 0% decisions on... Public Need 0% 0% 99% 97% 0% 86% Is the main role of government Create equal Opportunity 75% 100% 77% 100% 33% 0% to .? Redistribute wealth 21% 0% 19% 0% 37% 97% Rely on common sense When it comes to government 0% 100% 34% 46% 52% 51% decision making... Listen to experts 92% 0% 58% 36% 23% 42% Brings out the worst in human nature 0% 0% 0% 90% 55% 91% The profit system... Teaches value of hard work and success 90% 76% 90% 0% 12% 0% Note: Current data: June 2020 Segmentation Attitudes: More than half (54%) agree that in Manitoba 15 you can be anything you want if you are willing to work for it Do you agree or disagree with the following statements? [asked of all respondents; n=200] y Here in Manitoba you can be anything you want 18% 35% 22% 13% 8% 2% if you are willing to work for it x No matter how hard I work, every year 19% 31% 24% 15% 9% 2% it seems more difficult to get by Strongly agree Somewhat agree Neither agree nor disagree Somewhat disagree Strongly disagree Don't know Current data: June 2020 Economic Gap Segmentation: Almost 3-in-10 (28%) believe in the 16 Canadian Dream and are not struggling to get by Gap segmentation: Agree with 'Here in Manitoba you can be anything you want if you are willing to work for it’ (“the Canadian Dream”) BY Agree with 'No matter how hard I work, every year it seems more difficult to get by'.
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