Archive of SID J. Agr. Sci. Tech. (2020) Vol. 22(2): 333-346

Clarifying the Role of Drought Adaptation Strategies on Changing Farming Mode by Livestock Farmers: Evidence from Komijan Township,

H. Shabanali Fami1, S. Azizi1, and A. Alambeigi1*

ABSTRACT

The current empirical research was conducted to investigate the impact of drought on livestock production with the main objective of studying the role of adaptation strategies in the process of changing the farming mode from crop-oriented to livestock-oriented by farmers in Komijan Township, Iran. Komijan has been facing a long period of drought that has affected farming systems of the area. Primary data were collected through interview using a questionnaire. The statistical population of the study consisted of livestock farmers in the area (N= 1,000), out of which 200 people were selected. The participants in research were interviewed using simple random sampling and Descriptive–Correlation research method. Logistic regression was used as the main statistical technique. Logit function with an odds ratio of 70.4% showed that strategies of shifting livestock as well as production management were the main responses of the farmers to drought conditions. Those farmers with a high level of perceived vulnerability were more capable of adapting themselves to drought than the others. Hence, perceived vulnerability is associated with production or farming mode.

Keywords: Descriptive–Correlation research, Perceived vulnerability, Production Mode, Strategy.

INTRODUCTION protracted period of deficient precipitation resulting in extensive damage to crops, Various measures have been adopted by the resulting in loss of yield. (NDMC, 2008). It governments to slowdown global mean can also be defined as a temporary climatic anomaly with no rain, especially during the

Downloaded from jast.modares.ac.ir at 9:02 IRST on Tuesday March 10th 2020 surface temperature increase, but the current climate conditions and demand of social planting and growing season. It is one of the development would cause global temperatures most complex and least understood of all- to continue to rise over the next 20–30 years natural events, and affects more people than (Wang et al., 2018). Drought has been one of any other hazard (Ansari Amoli et al., 2015). the most effective factors affecting the whole According to some statistics, since 1900, more life of many resource-poor farmers across the than 11 million people have died as a world. Small farming systems are more consequence of drought and more than 2 susceptible to drought risks than market risks billion have been affected by drought, more as they have weak linkages to the market. than any other physical hazard (FAO, 2013). Drought is a condition under which levels of Global warming also affects water in rivers, lakes, and ground tables are evapotranspiration, which is expected to lead declined and there is insufficient soil moisture to increased drought in dry areas as well as the in farming areas. Drought is defined as a expansion of dry areas. Precipitation has ______1 Faculty of Agricultural Economics and Development, University of , Karaj, Islamic Republic of Iran.  Corresponding author; e-mail: [email protected]

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declined in the tropics and subtropics since Livestock production systems in developing 1970. Southern Africa, the Sahel region of countries are changing rapidly in response to a Africa, southern Asia, the Mediterranean, and variety of factors such as climate change the US. Southwest, for example, are getting (Thornton et al., 2009). Drought impacts on drier. Scientists expect the amount of land livestock differ from livestock mortality, poor- affected by drought to grow by mid-century— productivity, to health and fertility (Rathore, and water resources in affected areas to decline 2005). Various studies reported a negative as much as 30 percent. (UCS, 2011). Along impact of drought on the livestock sector. The with many countries, Iran has been affected by results of a study conducted by Udmale et al. climate change and is gradually changing into (2014) showed that decrease in yield of a dry and drought-prone country, located in the cereals, horticultural crops, livestock arid/semi-arid zone of Asia (Foghi, 2003). Iran production, and loss of employment, all of has been heavily affected by drought events. which were associated with decreased income For example, a particularly severe drought of farmers, were the immediate economic occurred during 1999-2002. This drought impacts of drought. This study indicated that inflicted $3.5 billion in damage, killed 800,000 45.7% of the respondents believed drought had head of livestock and dried up major reservoirs resulted in lack of water and fodder for and inland lakes. This resulted in a decrease in livestock. Also, drying of water resources, cultivation and yield of cereal crops (Ansari crop failure, increase in food prices, poor Amoli et al., 2015). health –and a decline in prices–of livestock According to an estimate of the were the most immediate impacts of drought Management and Planning Organization in perceived by farmers. Drought mainly affects Iran, total damages to the national economy the crop and livestock production, therefore, resulting from drought during 1998-2001 were approximately 79% of farmers preferred not to over $7.5 billion (Garshasbi, 2015). Reports of sell their crop production and, instead, they other countries reveal the severe effect of stored it to deal with anticipated droughts. drought on national economies. Kulshreshtha About 47.9% of farmers stored crop residues et al. (2003) estimated the economic costs of to meet the fodder demand during the the droughts of 2001 and 2002 to the regional anticipated drought, and 51% of farmers and national economy of Canada. According reduced their expenses and saved money. to their study, the lost Gross Domestic Product For drought management, there are (GDP) was estimated at C$3.65 billion and a alternatives, the most important of which is an

Downloaded from jast.modares.ac.ir at 9:02 IRST on Tuesday March 10th 2020 loss of 23,777 jobs. Horridge et al. (2005) in adaptation to climate change (Smit and their study indicated that the 2002-2003 Wandel, 2006; Wise et al., 2014; Hertel and droughts caused an overall reduction of Lobell, 2014). Adaptation is essential for Australian GDP by 1.6%, of which 1% was changing conditions, stress, hazards, risk, and directly related to the agricultural sector, and opportunities in the future. Adaptation refers to the remaining 0.6% was due to multiplier a process, an action, or an outcome in a system effects. Several studies show significant short- such as household, community, group, sector, run economic losses from the 2011 or 2012 region or country, to better cope with the drought including an annual national study by facing problems (Wang et al., 2018). It should Anderson et al. (2012) in Texas and regional be noted that adaptation is a dynamic process analyses made by Bauman et al. (2013), formed by institutional, cultural, and socio- Guidry and Pruitt (2012), Watkins (2012), economic systems (Amaru and Chhetri, 2013). Wallander et al. (2013), and Dhoubhadel et al. Also, the ability to adapt to diversity and (2015) in different parts of the USA. Diersen climate change is closely related to et al. (2002) also examined the economic vulnerability. In the developing countries, impacts of drought in South Dakota. Their there is a high level of vulnerability and low original estimate of total impacts amounted to adaptability to factors such as reliance on $1.8 billion. natural resources (World Bank, 2000), the

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limited financial and institutional capacity to smallholder farmers in the district planted adapt (Beg et al., 2002, Deressa et al., 2009), early maturing crop varieties to counteract any and low per capita income and the lack of natural vagaries (Mpandeli et al., 2015). safety networks (Desanker et al., 2001). Speranza (2010), Opyio et al. (2015), and Drought usually causes long-term impacts Wetende et al. (2018) indicated that frequent on perennial crops and livestock productions. droughts are associated with the deterioration The negative impacts in these cases might of livestock condition, increased incidences of linger for multiple years (Ding et al., 2011). In certain diseases and livestock deaths, altered many parts of the world, the livestock sector herd structure, and a collapse of livestock has been affected by drought. Results show markets. The survey results show that 22% of that short-term drought effects, including livestock mortalities were associated with increases in crop and forage prices, are in starvation from drought events. Studies by tandem with decreased live cattle prices Huho and Mugalavi (2010) and Nkedianye et resulting from drought-induced beef cattle al. (2011) reported a positive correlation herd liquidation in the US (Leister et al., between drought severity and the magnitude of 2015). Anderson et al. (2012) reported that, in livestock losses in northern Kenya. In drought Texas State in the USA, livestock losses due to incident in 1999, the Management and the 2011 drought were estimated to be $3.23 Planning Organization in Iran estimated the billion. Losses include the increased cost of costs of such impacts to be about $1.25 Billion feeding livestock due to the lack of pastures of which more than 80 percent constituted and ranges, and market losses. Diersen and damages of crop, ranges, and livestock Taylor (2003) estimated that the drought of (Garshasbi, 2015). 2002 in Missouri caused a total direct loss of Punsalmaa (2006), in a study in Mongolia, $251 million in the agricultural sector (the found that 53% of the respondents had lost combined crop and livestock losses). more than half of their animals, 17% of which According to Mpandeli and Maponya had lost all animals due to drought disasters. (2014), low rainfall resulted in decreases in Drought in Mongolia was not regarded as a agricultural activities including a shortage of natural disaster, unlike many African and drinking water, loss of both livestock and South Asian countries. However, drought crops, and lack of grazing capacity in South results in the decrease of pasture plants, the Africa. As reported by Mpandeli (2014), decrease of palatable species in pasture plant, droughts across the Limpopo Province of reduced water availability, and absence of

Downloaded from jast.modares.ac.ir at 9:02 IRST on Tuesday March 10th 2020 South Africa impacted crop and livestock grass on pasture. Also, drought prevents production on top of impact on water supplies herders from preparing hay and other for irrigation activities, mining, and domestic supplementary feed for animals and dairy use. Maponya (2013) further highlighted that products for themselves. Most importantly, due to this severe drought impacts across animals are unable to build up the necessary districts in Limpopo Province of South Africa, strength (i.e., calories/fat) during the drought grazing and water for livestock and irrigation period in summer to enable them to cope with activities were negatively affected. It was also the harsh winter and spring windstorms and, highlighted by several experts that the drought therefore, they die in large numbers. impacts in the Sekhukhune district of South Livestock farmers in different areas have Africa not only affected the crop and the attempted to adapt themselves to drought livestock smallholders, it also affected the condition. Their ability to adapt consists of a vegetation status in the district. The quality number of fundamental attributes that are and status of vegetation can be severely relevant across a range of threats. In fact, affected by drought periods. Livestock drought shocks or livestock disease evolve and smallholder farmers in some of the areas in the require proper accounting of the dynamic district were also using the destocking, adjustment process (Dorfman and Lastrapes, especially during uncertainty periods. Other 1996; Gramig and Horan, 2011). Some

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smallholder farmers in Zimbabwe, for keeping is itself an adaptation to risk. In some example, have been known to sell their of Africa’s drier areas, pastoral communities livestock to compensate for lack of income are following the tried-and-tested adaptation because of insufficient harvest (Phillips et al., strategy of shifting from less resilient (but 2002; Adger et al., 2002; Patt and Gwata, more marketable) cattle and sheep into the 2002). more resilient camels and goats. Meanwhile Udmale et al. (2014) found that farmers seek many non-livestock farmers are investing in various options such as migration for livestock as an adaptation strategy, usually employment, selling of livestock, and non- starting with small stock and often feeding agricultural income sources to lessen the them with crop residues or household waste drought impacts. To mitigate the drought (IUCN, 2011). impacts, farmers used various drought Training is important to develop the preparedness and adaptation measures. With adaptation capabilities of farmers, as is access anticipated drought, farmers stored crop to financial services and markets. According to harvest (grains), stored crop residues for the Standardized Precipitation Index derived livestock, saved money, migrated for from long-term rainfall data obtained from the employment, sold livestock for income Kenya Meteorological Service, extreme generation (and also because they were unable drought events were increasingly frequent and to provide food and water for the livestock), had negative impact on pastoral livelihoods. In and sought alternative source of income order to adapt to or cope with climatic through employment under NREGA anomalies, households are using a variety of [National Rural Employment Guarantee Act strategies. In addition to the traditional short- 2005 (or, NREGA No 42, later renamed as term coping mechanisms, the long-term the "Mahatma Gandhi National Rural adaptation strategies used include Employment Guarantee Act", MGNREGA), diversification of livelihood sources, livestock is an Indian labour law and social security mobility to track forage and water resources, measure that aims to guarantee the 'right to diversification of herd composition to benefit work], labor for local construction work, and from the varied drought and disease tolerance, mining, etc. A study in Kenya showed that as well as fecundity of diverse livestock agro-pastoralists’ responses to drought were species, and sending children to school for reactive and mainly involved intensifying the formal education as a long term investment exploitation of resources and the commons. expected to pay back through income from

Downloaded from jast.modares.ac.ir at 9:02 IRST on Tuesday March 10th 2020 Proactive responses, such as improving employment (Opiyo et al., 2015). production resources, are few. To improve In East Africa, the communal land tenure adaptive capacity, interventions should expose system is pivotal to livelihood security because agro-pastoralists to other forms of savings, it allows livestock mobility to take advantage incorporate agro-pastoralists as agents of of pasture and water resources that are only change by building their capacity to provide seasonally accessible (Kameri-Mbote, 2013). extension services and maintain infrastructure. Turkana herders own a wide range of Securing livestock mobility, pasture indigenous livestock species, which are production and access is crucial under the selected based on survival and productivity variable social-ecological conditions and are well adapted to the prevailing climatic (Speranza, 2010) conditions (Notenbaert et al., 2007). To cope Moreover, many livestock keepers have with the negative effect of drought and climate traditionally been capable of adapting to change, some pastoralists diversify their threats to their livelihood. Indeed, one of the economic strategies to include agriculture, most widespread livestock systems in Africa, wage labor, and beekeeping, among others pastoralism, has often been defined by its (Swift, 2001; Watson and van Binsbergen, capacity to adapt to climatic uncertainty and 2006). Pastoralists may take the strategy of other hazards. For other farmers, livestock keeping herds containing a mixture of different

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livestock species with variable levels of (Rowlinson, 2008). The objectives of the resilience to drought as insurance against total Emergency Drought Recovery Project in Iran loss of livestock in case of drought (Opiyo et are to alleviate the impact of current drought al., 2015). Also, they indicated that the through measures to regenerate crops and majority of the respondents (59.2%) viewed livestock productivity, improve rural roads and mobility as an adaptation strategy to reduce potable water supplies to generate current risk, and also to access livestock, markets, or income for affected populations (Ansari Amoli urban centers. Discussion with key informants et al., 2015). Drought vulnerability is related to confirms that herd mobility enables the degree of natural and social adaptation to opportunistic use of resources and helps drought in terms of resistance and resilience minimize the effects of droughts, disease (Ansari Amoli et al., 2015). Iran is one of the outbreaks, and livestock losses through raids. countries located in the arid belt of the earth in Movement of livestock to areas with secure which drought occurs frequently. Livestock water and pasture resources is an effective production is increasing in Iran, driven by strategy against droughts (Niamir-Fuller, urbanization, more demand for animal protein, 2000) and has remained important for herders human population growth, and enhancing in northwestern Turkana County of Kenya. living standards. Meanwhile, the desired adaptation strategies is a region in the country proposed by the majority of respondents that has experienced 13 successive years of include establishing strategic livestock feed drought. Komijan County in the Markazi reserves, irrigation farming, development of Province is one of the locations that have been water sources and insurance for livestock, and highly affected by drought and face saving schemes. Many respondents also groundwater scarcity as a consequence. About expressed interest in establishing grain and 50 percent of rural households are involved in fodder storage facilities, improving livestock livestock production in Komijan. Livestock breeds, making livestock products such as provides money and food security for them ghee for sale during the dry season, and and is a source of socio-economic security for increasing their herd size (Opyio et al., 2015). rural households. They consider livestock as a Amamou et al. (2018), in empirical research, source of savings, which is readily released at showed that the attitudes of the farmers the time of economic crisis. towards adaptation to climate change are Livestock sector of this area has been associated with farm typology. They focused affected by frequent drought conditions during

Downloaded from jast.modares.ac.ir at 9:02 IRST on Tuesday March 10th 2020 their attempts mainly on increasing water the past years. The successive drought has put capacity for livestock and crop production and the livestock farmers into many constraints improving livestock and housing conditions. such as water scarcity, increased temperature, In Iran, apart from farmers, the government and reduction of fodder and feed production at took some measures to mitigate the negative farms. Some external factors such as overuse impact of drought. For example, due to of groundwater by digging illegal wells, lack repeated drought, the Iranian government of receiving their customary water from implemented the Aid and Rescue Program, in Gharechy River has deteriorated the situation 2003. This Program was approved as part of for mixed farming systems. It seems that the Third Five Year Development Plan. The sustainable development of the livestock government provided facilities to adopt water sector is an effective adaptive strategy that management technologies and supplied food represents opportunities for mitigating drought and forage. Also, long term loan and subsidies consequences in the area. Out of different to farmers were provided for increasing livestock production system, extensive mode adaptation and control of drought risks grazing animals in the pastures and farms, (Garshasbi, 2015). Heat distress suffered by which is expanding in the area, has a animals will reduce the rate of animal feed negligible share to the output of greenhouse intake, resulting in poor growth performance gases and, if well managed, can contribute to

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conserving the biodiversity of rangelands and Agricultural Economics and Development, environmental health. Meanwhile it is University of Tehran. The reliability of the noticeable that insecure tenure in rangeland main scale of the questionnaire was approved areas, the condition of the vegetation, conflicts by the Cronbach Alpha coefficient, which was between new pastoral groups shifted to 0.764. This amount is acceptable and shows mountainous locations and weakening or that the instrument of measurement is reliable. breakdown of customary governance This research was designed with the main institutions are basic threats to the strategy of objective of investigating the effect of shifting from intensive to the extensive mode applying adaptation strategies to cope with the of livestock production. Many of the basic drought consequences on production mode of capabilities of livestock farmers are weak, livestock farming in the area of study. leading to their vulnerability to drought. Hence, new and innovative measures are RESULTS required to strengthen the capacity of the livestock sector for adapting their business to the threat of drought. Taking the above issues Personal Characteristics of the into account, this study aimed to investigate Respondents the drought-adaptive strategies applied by farmers in the area of study. The findings showed that the mean of the respondent’s age was about 54 years with a MATERIALS AND METHODS standard deviation of 13.07. The youngest farmer was 27 years old and the oldest one was about 85 years old. Majority of the The applied research is non-experimental respondents had a family size of three persons and is a descriptive correlation research that with the median equal to four persons at the the research data were collected by survey time of the study. Frequency distribution of the method. The statistical population of the study respondents with regards to education level consisted of about 1,000 livestock farmers of indicated that 46.5 percent of them were Komijan Township. Daniel formula (Daniel, illiterate and 37 percent had basic literacy 1999) was applied to determine sample size: skills, 13.5 percent gained guidance school level degree, 2.5 percent had a high school diploma, and .05 percent had a higher degree. Downloaded from jast.modares.ac.ir at 9:02 IRST on Tuesday March 10th 2020 Where, n= Sample size with finite The data revealed that the main job of 49.5 population correction, N= Population size, is percent of the respondents was crop farming equal to 1,000, Z= Z statistic for a level of followed by 25 percent livestock farmers and confidence, is equal to 1.96, P= Expected eight percent were involved in service-related proportion (in the proportion of one), is equal jobs. All the respondents were engaged in to 0.2, d= Precision (in the proportion of one) animal husbandry affairs as either their main is equal to 0.05. jobs or their second jobs. Also, about 17.5 According to the Daniel formula, 200 percent of the respondents shifted their jobs livestock farmers were selected as a sample from crop farming into animal husbandry due and interviewed. Given the relative to the ever-increasing prevalence of drought. homogeneity of the respondents in terms of Livestock possession of the respondents was farming mode, simple random sampling was converted into the animal unit where one used to reach the actual samples. A animal unit was considered as equal to the questionnaire was developed by the value of an average-weighted sheep (equal to researchers for collecting the needed data. 50 kg) in the area of study. According to the Content validity of the main scales of the data, each respondent possessed about 87 questionnaire was approved by a panel of animal units with a standard deviation of experts’ judgment from the Faculty of 117.62. Meanwhile, 85 percent of the

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respondents possessed less than 150 animal into five factors determining about 57.939 units. The respondents had an average of 5.16 percent of the variance of the data, as shown in and 4.35 hectares of irrigated and rainfed Table 1. lands, respectively. During the past decades, The logistic test was used to determine the some of the irrigated lands have changed from effect of strategy’s dimensions on the irrigated mode into rainfed- type due to adaptability of livestock farmers to drought. drought exposure. According to the Chi-square statistic, which In order to determine the main adaptation was equal to 23.065 with eight degrees of strategies to cope with drought conditions by freedom and being significant at one percent livestock farmer, 27 items were identified and level, function performance is better when included in exploratory factor analysis. Kaiser- using predictor variables than using Meyer-Olkin measure was equal to 0.67 and constants alone. The results of the Logit Bartlett's test was significant at 1% level with likelihood regression model indicated that the statistic equal to 561.380, showing that the the overall predictive power of the model data was appropriate for factor analysis. With (67.5%) was quite high, while the significant the Varimax Rotation in the principal Chi-square (χ= 23.065, P< 0.01) was component analysis, the items were classified indicative of the strength of the joint effect

Table 1. Factors determining the main adaptation strategies to cope with drought conditions. Percent of Factor No Factor name Item Eigenvalue variance loadings determined Livestock mobility in long distances for 0.828 Livestock getting water transfer to 1 Moving animal to mountainous pastureland 2.259 14.12 another with enough water 0.814 place carrying water tank along with a flock 0.729 Paying more attention to housing health 0.699 A long-term and comprehensive program for 0.656 water provision Production Selling sick and old-aged livestock management 0.652 2 constantly 1.857 12.70 and Applying extension worker’s and

Downloaded from jast.modares.ac.ir at 9:02 IRST on Tuesday March 10th 2020 adaptation 0.598 veterinarian’s advice Expanding lands under fodder cultivation by 0.700 better water management Pay more attention to animal disease and 0.608 Defensive preventive healthcare measures strategy and Livestock insurance 0.603 3 1.857 11.60 future Using credit for improving livestock 0.565 visioning production units Water spraying to animal stands 0.788 Improving animal feeds with nutrient Improving 0.607 supplements physical An increasing number of fattening livestock 4 condition of 0.549 1.658 10.36 in the flock keeping Using indigenous medicines for livestock animals 0.754 treatment Return to Changing flock composition into drought- 5 traditional resistant animals 0728 1.464 9.15 methods

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of the covariates on the probability of who adopted this strategy to cope with adaptability of changing production mode drought were ready to shift from crop among farmers in the area of study. farming to livestock production 1.16 times Also, -2 log likelihood was equal to more than the other farmers. The results 190.18 and significant, showing independent showed that the variable of ―strategy of variable predicts dependent variable production management and adaptation‖ had efficiently. The classification power of the a β value of -0.021 with a significant Wald model was equal to 70.4 , indicating that out statistic at one percent level. In addition, of 182 samples, 133 people were correctly EXP (B) was equal to 0.98, indicating that classified. According to Table 2, logit those farmers who had higher perceived function is expressed as following: vulnerability of drought were ready to shift Ln (p/(1-p) -1.85+0.193 (X )+0.149 (X )- from crop farming to livestock production 1 2 0.98 times less than the other farmers . 0.021 (X3) Where, P stands for an odds ratio of shifting to animal husbandry as a response to DISCUSSION drought, X1 refers to the strategy of livestock transfer to another place, X2 stands for the Climate change is one of the recent strategy of production management and challenges faced by different countries and adaptation, and X3 refers to the extent of communities. Consequences of climate vulnerability. The results revealed that the change such as emission of greenhouse variable of ―strategy of livestock transfer to gases and livelihood transformation have another place‖ had a β value of 0.193 with a affected many aspects of life in various significant Wald statistic at one percent communities throughout the country. In the level. In addition, EXP (B) was equal to study area, at the first step, the farmers 1.213, indicating that those farmers who decided to adopt the strategy of transferring adopted this strategy to cope with drought their flocks from the village to areas less were ready to shift from crop farming to affected by drought so that they can better livestock production 1.213 times more than adapt to climate change. As the second the other farmers. The results indicated that strategy, the farmers decided to change their the variable of ―strategy of production production mode and shift from highly management and adaptation‖ had a β value irrigated cropping system to rainfed farming of 0.149 with a significant Wald statistic at system as well as from crop farming to Downloaded from jast.modares.ac.ir at 9:02 IRST on Tuesday March 10th 2020 one percent level. In addition, EXP (B) was livestock production, and from mixed equal to 1.16, indicating that those farmers farming to a grazing system. They have also

Table 2. Coefficients of logit function of shifting to livestock production as a response to drought condition. The confidence level for Exp (B) Independent variable B SE Wald Sig Exp (B) at 95 % Lower Upper Livestock transfer to another place 0.193 0.056 12.060 0.001 1.213 1.088 1.353 Production management and adaptation 0.149 0.067 5.019 0.025 1.161 1.019 1.322 Defensive strategy and future sighting -0.038 0.053 0.522 0.47 0.962 0.867 1.068 Improving physical condition of keeping 0.013 0.092 0.019 0.891 1.013 0.846 1.213 animals Return to traditional methods -0.122 0.110 1.219 0.269 0.885 0.713 1.099 Vulnerability level -0.021 0.008 6.656 0.010 0.980 0.964 0.995 constant -1.856 1.25 2.203 0.138 0.156 - -

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changed their flock composition from large due to the availability of fodder in new ruminants to small ruminants, which are virgin places, it is predicted that pursuing of more mobile and can be easily moved to livestock grazing in the mountainous mountainous areas with rich pasture. The pastures will not be a sustainable adaptive study conducted by Seo and Mendelsohn strategy and may degrade vegetation (2008) had similar findings. In addition to resources in the long term. Hence, they need the above strategies, livestock farmers to consider more proactive strategies such as decided to improve their infrastructure for improving their capacities in fodder animal raising and reconsider using their production and stewardship skills when it indigenous knowledge and experiences as comes to pasture exploitation. These the main sources for coping with drought measures need full support and intervention side effects. These findings are in line with of government to help livestock farmers by the results of Alary et al. (2014), Nordone et providing extension and advisory services, al. (2010), and Thornton et al. (2009). maintaining infrastructure, securing their The empirical model of the study revealed access to essential inputs and use of that those farmers who were capable of common resources. Accordingly, the area adopting strategies of livestock transfer, as needs a comprehensive livestock well as changing farming practices and development plan in which grazing of mode of their production, were ready to animals in pasture becomes more sustainable develop their animal husbandry units and in the long term and farmers receive reduce crop farming activities as a response educational, technical, advisory and to drought condition and lessen the infrastructure services. perceived socio-economic vulnerabilities of their livelihood. This is in line with the CONCLUSIONS findings of Thomas et al. (2007). These results indicate that adopting a strategy depends on the perception of farmers about Climate change directs experts to look its effectiveness in reducing burdens of their forward and redesign farming systems so lives. Given the status of animal husbandry that they become more adaptive to drought to reduce farmers’ vulnerability under condition. This process engages farmers into drought conditions, government intervention a radical transformation of their practices, in the process is recommended by their way of reasoning and decision-making, and their participation in local knowledge

Downloaded from jast.modares.ac.ir at 9:02 IRST on Tuesday March 10th 2020 subsidizing economic and business consultancy services to improve or revise production. In this way, the current research business models of the farming households was designed to study variables that affect in order to strengthen both livestock farming farmers’ decision on changing their sector and non-farming activities livelihoods. The findings revealed that simultaneously. In fact, the farmers need to farmers could not adopt a full grazing adopt new business models that are more system because in some parts of the year sustainable and effective in reducing their they shift their animals to the villages due to vulnerability to climate change. insufficient fodder in the pasture or for other The strategy of transferring livestock from reasons such as security, access to fodder, plain areas to the mountainous ranglands etc. This implies that changing cropping changes the mode of production from mixed pattern of the farms to enhance their farming to the grazing system. In fact, the capacities of fodder production will help the responses of livestock farmers to drought livestock farmers to produce the needed has been reactive because they have shifted fodder and become less dependent on the livestock raising from the home-stead and market for the times they go for hand farms to the grazing lands and mountainous feeding animals. Wetende et al. (2018), in areas. Although they are presently satisfied empirical research, showed that adaptation

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options might become weak when they view source, and a low level of agricultural the drought phenomenon through a narrow insurance, which are partially a result of lens of disease control by regular spraying drought in the region. Therefore, farmers and maize stovers as supplementary need to learn how to adapt themselves to livestock feed during fodder insufficiency drought condition. This study recommends periods. In addition, Bedeke et al. (2018) that the government need to get involved in suggested that promoting household developing a model of climate-smart memberships in local organizations through livestock production system in the area of facilitating mutual cooperation and study, through which livestock farmers can communication among farming communities have access to the essential inputs, for adoption of climate change by changing information, and technology to become production method is an effective strategy to more resilient to climate change. The improve their adaptive capacities. In line knowledge obtained from these findings with the research findings of Opyio et al. could be used for decision-makers and (2015), the livestock farmers of Komijan stakeholders to promote them to develop keep dairy cattle to produce milk, which is policies for livestock management practices partially consumed by the households or that address climate change and make them sold to the local market. They also sell small more adapted to diverse farmers’ decisions animals like sheep and goats when cash is toward livelihood change. However, the required to meet other domestic results show that adaptation to climate requirements such as purchase of food or change is happening in the complex socio- school payments. ecological system of livestock production in The research findings revealed that the study area. production management and adaptation play a central role in changing livelihood of ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS villagers to livestock production. Therefore, there is a need to an innovative farming systems management and functioning The authors acknowledge financial (Sautier et al., 2017), which reinforces support granted by Faculty of Agricultural production management skills. In this way, Economics and Development, University of Lacombe et al. (2018) suggested co- Tehran. innovation, which supports practice-led

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واکاوی نقش راهبرد های سازگاری با خشکسالی در تغییر شیوه کشاورزی توسط دامداران: مطالعه موردی شهرستان کمیجان، ایران

ح. شعبانعلی فمی، س. عسیسی، و ا. علم بیگی

چکیده

ایه تحقیق تٍ تزرسی تاثیز خطکسالی تز تًلیذات دامی پزداختٍ ي تا َذف اساسی مطالعٍ وقص راَثزد َای ساسگاری تا فزآیىذ تغییز ضیًٌ تًلیذ کطايرسی اس سراعت تٍ دامذاری تًسط تُزٌ تزداران ضُزستان کمیجان در استان مزکشی تٍ اجزا در آمذ. کمیجان یک ديرٌ طًالوی خطکسالی کٍ وظام َای تُزٌ تزداری مىطقٍ را تحت تاثیز قزار دادٌ تجزتٍ کزدٌ است. دادٌ َای ايلیٍ تا استفادٌ اس یک پزسطىامٍ ي ريش مصاحثٍ تٍ دست آمذٌ است. جامعٍ آماری تحقیق ضامل 1000 وفز اس دامذاران مىطقٍ تًد کٍ اس تیه آوُا 200 وفز تٍ عىًان ومًوٍ تزای مصاحثٍ اوتخاب ضذوذ. پاسخگًیان تا استفادٌ اس ريش ومًوٍ گیزی سادٌ تصادفی ي ريش پیمایطی مًرد مصاحثٍ قزار گزفتىذ. رگزسیًن لجستیک تٍ عىًان ريش آماری تزای تحلیل دادٌ َا مًرد استفادٌ قزار گزفت. تاتع لً جیت تا تزتزی وسثی 4/00 درصذ وطان داد کٍ راَثزد َای جاتجایی دام ي مذیزیت تًلیذ مُمتزیه پاسخ دامذاران مًرد مطالعٍ تٍ ضزایط خطکسالی تًد. آن دستٍ اس کطايرسان تا سطح تاالی آسیة پذیزی درک ضذٌ تًاومىذی تیطتزی تزای ساس گاری Downloaded from jast.modares.ac.ir at 9:02 IRST on Tuesday March 10th 2020 خًد تا ضزایط خطکسالی داضتىذ. تىا تایه آسیة پذیزی درک ضذٌ تا ضیًٌ تًلیذ مزتثط است.

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