NREN Disruption

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HOW NRENS ARE BEING DISRUPTED and why “that’s too technical” is a warning sign 1 2 3 4 Hard disks 2 3 4 Hard disks The Innovator’s Dilemma Clayton Christensen CapacityQuality 8” drive minicomputers 5.25” drive Time personal computers WORSE THAN WHAT CAME BEFORE FLEEING UPMARKET Hard disks 2 3 4 Hard disks Mobile phones 3 4 Mobile phones 2007 honhai intel wistron askey arris liteon murata arcadyan azurewave asustek huawei other mac ipad iphone samsung nokia htc sony rim 30000 22500 nokia Mobile samsung 15000 Apple 7500 other Laptop intel hon hai 0 April 2009 October 2009 April 2010 October 2010 April 2011 October 2011 April 2012 October 2012 April 2013 October 2013 Source: MAC addresses seen in eduroam requests at HEAnet 600000 450000 iPhone 300000 86% 150000 iPad Mac 0 2008 Q4 2009 Q2 2009 Q4 2010 Q2 2010 Q4 2011 Q2 2011 Q4 2012 Q2 2012 Q4 2013 Q2 2013 Q4 Source: Apple reports of unit shipments 6.5:1 86% honhai intel wistron askey arris liteon murata arcadyan azurewave asustek huawei other mac ipad iphone samsung nokia htc sony rim 30000 22500 nokia Mobile samsung 15000 Apple 7500 other Laptop intel hon hai 0 April 2009 October 2009 April 2010 October 2010 April 2011 October 2011 April 2012 October 2012 April 2013 October 2013 Source: MAC addresses seen in eduroam requests at HEAnet honhai intel wistron askey arris liteon murata arcadyan azurewave asustek huawei other mac ipad iphone samsung nokia htc sony rim 30000 22500 nokia Mobile samsung 15000 iphone ipad 7500 mac other Laptop intel hon hai 0 April 2009 October 2009 April 2010 October 2010 April 2011 October 2011 April 2012 October 2012 April 2013 October 2013 Source: MAC addresses seen in eduroam requests at HEAnet 1 0.75 Mobile 0.5 0.25 Laptops 0 April 2009 October 2009 April 2010 October 2010 April 2011 October 2011 April 2012 October 2012 April 2013 October 2013 1 y = -0.0042x + 0.5555 R² = 0.6526 0.75 Mobile 0.5 0.25 Laptops 0 April 2009 October 2009 April 2010 October 2010 April 2011 October 2011 April 2012 October 2012 April 2013 October 2013 COMPETING WITH NON-CONSUMPTION MARK ZUCKERBERG RUINED MY PRESENTATION Hard disks Mobile phones 3 4 Hard disks Mobile phones Paper Towels 4 Paper Towels “IT HAS ONE JOB” JOBS TO BE DONE 201013187 YEARS AGO 1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 "What's the business case?" "That's too technical." "What do they do that's new?" Mobile Number of users A B C Bandwidth used Graph: Cees de Laat Mobile Number of users A B C Bandwidth used Graph: Cees de Laat Mobile Number of users A B C Bandwidth used Graph: Cees de Laat STAFF STUDENTS RESEARCHERS Hard disks Mobile phones Paper Towels 4 Hard disks Mobile phones Paper Towels NRENs NRENs HORACE DEDIU @asymco BENEDICT EVANS @BenedictEvans BEN BAJARIN @BenBajarin BEN THOMPSON @monkbent HORACE DEDIU asymco.com BENEDICT EVANS ben-evans.com BEN BAJARIN atbenbajarin.com BEN THOMPSON stratechery.com HORACE DEDIU 5by5.tv/criticalpath BENEDICT EVANS cubed.fm BEN BAJARIN BEN THOMPSON stratechery.fm Get there ﬁrst Thank you.

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