HOW NRENS ARE BEING DISRUPTED
and why “that’s too technical” is a warning sign 1 2
3 4 Hard disks 2
3 4 Hard disks The Innovator’s Dilemma
Clayton Christensen 8” drive
minicomputers
Quality Capacity 5.25” drive personal computers
Time WORSE THAN WHAT CAME BEFORE
FLEEING UPMARKET Hard disks 2
3 4 Hard disks Mobile phones
3 4 Mobile phones 2007 honhai intel wistron askey arris liteon murata arcadyan azurewave asustek huawei other mac ipad iphone samsung nokia htc sony rim
30000
22500 nokia Mobile
samsung
15000
Apple
7500
other
Laptop
intel hon hai 0 April 2009 October 2009 April 2010 October 2010 April 2011 October 2011 April 2012 October 2012 April 2013 October 2013 Source: MAC addresses seen in eduroam requests at HEAnet 600000
450000
iPhone
300000 86%
150000 iPad
Mac
0 2008 Q4 2009 Q2 2009 Q4 2010 Q2 2010 Q4 2011 Q2 2011 Q4 2012 Q2 2012 Q4 2013 Q2 2013 Q4
Source: Apple reports of unit shipments 6.5:1 86% honhai intel wistron askey arris liteon murata arcadyan azurewave asustek huawei other mac ipad iphone samsung nokia htc sony rim
30000
22500 nokia Mobile
samsung
15000
Apple
7500
other
Laptop
intel hon hai 0 April 2009 October 2009 April 2010 October 2010 April 2011 October 2011 April 2012 October 2012 April 2013 October 2013 Source: MAC addresses seen in eduroam requests at HEAnet honhai intel wistron askey arris liteon murata arcadyan azurewave asustek huawei other mac ipad iphone samsung nokia htc sony rim
30000
22500 nokia Mobile
samsung
15000 iphone
ipad
7500 mac
other
Laptop
intel hon hai 0 April 2009 October 2009 April 2010 October 2010 April 2011 October 2011 April 2012 October 2012 April 2013 October 2013 Source: MAC addresses seen in eduroam requests at HEAnet 1
0.75 Mobile
0.5
0.25 Laptops
0 April 2009 October 2009 April 2010 October 2010 April 2011 October 2011 April 2012 October 2012 April 2013 October 2013 1 y = -0.0042x + 0.5555 R² = 0.6526
0.75 Mobile
0.5
0.25 Laptops
0 April 2009 October 2009 April 2010 October 2010 April 2011 October 2011 April 2012 October 2012 April 2013 October 2013 COMPETING WITH NON-CONSUMPTION
MARK ZUCKERBERG RUINED MY PRESENTATION Hard disks Mobile phones
3 4 Hard disks Mobile phones
Paper Towels 4 Paper Towels “IT HAS ONE JOB” JOBS TO BE DONE 201013187 YEARS AGO
1994 1999 2004 2009 2014 "What's the business case?"
"That's too technical."
"What do they do that's new?" Mobile
Number of users
A B C
Bandwidth used
Graph: Cees de Laat Mobile
Number of users
A B C
Bandwidth used
Graph: Cees de Laat Mobile
Number of users
A B C
Bandwidth used
Graph: Cees de Laat STAFF
STUDENTS RESEARCHERS Hard disks Mobile phones
Paper Towels 4 Hard disks Mobile phones
Paper Towels NRENs NRENs HORACE DEDIU @asymco
BENEDICT EVANS @BenedictEvans
BEN BAJARIN @BenBajarin
BEN THOMPSON @monkbent HORACE DEDIU asymco.com
BENEDICT EVANS ben-evans.com
BEN BAJARIN atbenbajarin.com
BEN THOMPSON stratechery.com HORACE DEDIU 5by5.tv/criticalpath
BENEDICT EVANS
cubed.fm
BEN BAJARIN
BEN THOMPSON stratechery.fm Get there first Thank you