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1 COPING WITH NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA:

I SCIENTIFIC, GOVERNMENT AND INSURANCE I INDUSTRY PERSPECTIVES

A study written for the Round Table on Environmental Risk, I Natural Hazards and the Insurance Industry I I by Environmental Adaptation Research Group, Environment Canada and I Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto Sraren E. Brun I David Etkin Dionne Gesink Law Lindsay Wallace I Rodney White 1 ^`¢ $ifr^V Of June, 1997 &1I • I m aa o^G Lo a^ do I University of Toronto sSUran^Q I I ,&I Environment Canada Insurers' Advisory Organization Inc.

I qen y rrcp^rcdness Canada 'IC The Reinsurance Research Council I r i i e CO-^ era' t®ÎS S OREM A Insurance/Financia.^ , Services . 1,.1BRAB'â1' I QIBt lOD4^OL1E ^,--Is"F:P- K,;Is PF'CC 0620ü7 1 ^^^;NN Acknowledgements Cjrfiup,frY+3 Kim; MW ,,t' , n[3 er This project is supported by: I Environment Canada Emergency Preparedness Canada I Co-operators General Insurance Company Insurance Bureau of Canada Insurers' Advisory Organization Inc. I The Reinsurance Research Council SOREMA I University of Toronto The Steering Committee thanks everyone who shared their time and experience with the project I staff including: Elizabeth Bush, Atmospheric Environment Service; Mike Ellis, Agriculture Canada; Keith Filmore, BEP International; Sam Gilbert, Risk Management Solutions; Egon Gutzeit, Munich Re; David Gronbeck-Jones, BC Ministry of Attorney General; Robert Healy, I EQE International; Grant Kelly, Insurance Bureau of Canada; Vicky Lau, University of Toronto; Wayne Marr, Saskatchewan Municipal Government; R. Glenn McGillivray, Swiss Re Canada; Bill Meighen, Co-operators General Insurance Company; Guy Morrow, Risk Management Solutions; I Alan Pang, BEP Reinsurance; Ernst Rauch, Munich Re; Janice Reiner, Co-operators General Insurance Company; Garry Rogers, Geological Survey of Canada; Elaine Simpson, Ontario Ministry of the Solicitor General and Correctional Services; Mani Subramani, EQE International; I Brian Stratton, Office of the Superintendant of Financial Institutions; Chris Tucker, Emergency . Preparedness Canada; William Weeks, BEP International; Robert Zalan, Queen's University. 1 Membership of the Steering Committee on Insurance Industry and the Environment: Leonard Brooks, Faculty of Management, University of Toronto I Ian Burton, Environmental Adaptation Research Group, Environment Canada Elaine Collier, Vice-President, Underwriting Management Services, Insurers'Advisory Organization Inc. David Etkin, Environmental Adaptation Research Group, Environment Canada I Janice L. Reiner, Vice President, Reinsurance & Risk Management, Co-operators General Insurance Company Angus Ross, President, SOREMA Management Inc. I Roger Street, Director, Environmental Adaptation Research Group, Environment Canada Chris Tucker, Senior Scientrfic Advisor, Emergency Preparedness Canada Rodney R. White, Director, Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto I Judith Wilson, Manager, Environmental Database and Networking Initiative, Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto

I The Round Table on the Insurance Industry, Natural Hazards and Environmental Risks (see Appendix A for participants) was organised, and this report was produced by: I Mona El-Haddad, Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto. I List of Acronyms

ACA All-Channel-Alert INAC Indian and Northern Affairs Canada IRC I AGAFC Agriculture and Agrifoods Canada Institute for Research in ALS Advanced Life Support Construction ATC Applied Technology Council report ISO Insurance Services Office BLS Basic Life Support JEPP Joint Emergency Preparedness 1 CC Cloud-to-Cloud lightning Program CCC Canadian Climate Centre LIRMA London Insurance and Reinsurance CEPC Canadian Emergency Preparedness Market Association I College M Guttenberg-Richter scale CERPs Claims Emergency Response Plans MMI Modified Mercalli Index CF Canadian Forces MOTH Ministry of Transportation and I CG Cloud-to-Ground lightning Highways CMHC Canadian Mortgage and Housing NBCC National Building Code of Canada Corporation NERT Neighborhood Emergency Response DART Disaster Assistance Response Team Team 1 DFAA Disaster Financial Assistance NETC National Emergency Arrangement Telecommunications Committee DFAIT Department of Foreign Affairs and NHEMATIS Natural Hazards Electronic Map and I International Trade Assessment Tools Information DFO Department of Fisheries and Oceans NISA Net Income Stabilization Account DND Department of National Defense NRC National Research Council I EAL Expected Annual Losses NRCan Natural Resources Canada EBS Emergency Broadcast System OGS Ontario Geological Survey EIS Emergency Information System OSFI Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions I EMO Emergency Measures Organization EMS Emergency Medical Services PACIC Property and Casualty Insurance EPC Emergency Preparedness Canada Compensation Corporation EPEDAT Early Post-Earthquake Damage PED Probable Expected Damage I Assessment Tool PEL Probable Expected Loss EPICC Emergency Preparedness for PEP Provincial Emergency Program Industry and Commerce Council PGA Peak Ground Acceleration 1 ERCC Emergency Response PMD Probable Maximum Damage Communications Centre PML Principal insured Maximum Loss FDRP Flood Damage Reduction Program PWGSC Public Works and Government I FEMA Federal Emergency Management Services Canada Agency RCMP Royal Canadian Mounted Police FICO Financial Institutions Commission RECC Regional Emergency-operations and Communications Centre I FMR Fire Medical Responder GCM Global Climate Model RETCs Regional Emergency GDP Gross Domestic Product Telecommunications Committees GRIP Gross Revenue Insurance Plan RMS Risk Management Solutions I GSC Geological Survey of Canada SCIC Saskatchewan Crop Insurance HRDC Human Resources Development Corporation Canada SEP Saskatchewan Emergency Planning I IBC Insurance Bureau of Canada SONRA Society of Newfoundland Radio IIPLR Insurance Institute for Property Loss Amateurs Reduction SST Sea Surface Temperature -1 L'. I TABLE OF CONTENTS I TABLE OF CONTENTS I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY by Rodney White ...... 1

U PART I: SCOPE OF THIS REPORT I 1.0 The Impact of Natural Hazards by Lindsay Wallace and Rodney White 1.1 Introduction ...... 5 I 1.2 The Impact of Natural Hazards ...... 7 References ...... 14 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA 2.0 Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards I by Soren E. Brun 2.1 Introduction ...... 15 I 2.2 Atmospheric Hazards ...... 17 2.3 Hydrologic Hazards ...... 50 2.4 Geophysical Hazards ...... 57 I 2.5 Summary ...... 63 References ...... 63

I 3.0 Climate Change and Atmospheric Hazards by David Etkin and Soren E. Brun 3.1 Introduction ...... 66 I 3.2 Tropical Cyclones ...... :...... 67 3.3 Extra-Tropical Storms (Mid-latitude cYclones) ...... 67 I 3.4 Thunderstorms ...... , ...... 68 3.5 Extreme Temperature Events ...... 68 3.6 'Floods ...... 70 I 3.6 Drought ...... 70 3.8 Other Hazards ...... 70 3.9 Summary ...... 71 I References ...... 71 4.0 The Social and Economic Impact of Hydrometeorological I Hazards and Disasters: a Preliminary Inventory by David Etkin I 4.1 Introduction ...... 74 4.2 What Are Natural Disasters? ...... 76 I 4.3 Natural Hazards in Context ...... 76 I i TABLE OF CONTENTS

4.4 Social Costs in Canada 76 4.5 Economic Costs 87 4.6 Summary 109 4.7 Caveats 109 Reference 110

PART 3: AN APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM OF OCCURRENCE DEFINITION 5.0 Occurrence Definition by Soren E. Brun and David Etkin 5.1 Introduction 111 5.2 Ramifications of the Present Occurrence Definition 111 5.3 Concerns About Current Occurrence Definition 114 5.4 Defining Atmospheric Occurrences: A Proposal 115 5.5 Summary and Recommendations 119 Reference 119

PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS 6.0 Seismic Risk Models by Dionne Gesink Law 6.1 Introduction 121 6.2 Generic Seismic Risk Model 123 6.3 Insurance Inputs 126 6.4 Seismic Hazard Module 127 6.5 Vulnerability Module 145 6.6 Financial Module 148 6.7 Review of Seismic Risk Models 148 6.8 Summary and Recommendations 156 References 163 PART 5:RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS by Lindsay Wallace Introduction 165

7.0 Mitigating Natural Hazards and Their Effects 7.1 Introduction 167 7.2 Physical Mitigation 167 7.3 Financial Mitigation 171 7.4 Summary 173 References 173 TABLE OF CONTENTS 8.0 Preparing for an Emergency 8.1 Introduction 174 8.2 Emergency Planning 174 8.3 Warnings and Monitoring 183 8.4 Summary 185 References 185

9.0 Disaster Response and Relief 9.1 Introduction 187 9.2 Federal Government 187 9.3 Provincial Governments 191 9.4 Municipalities 195 9.5 Voluntary Agencies 196 9.6 Business and the Insurance Industry 196 9.7 Individuals 196 9.8 Co-ordination 197 9.9 Summary 197 References 197 10.0 Recovery 10.1 Introduction 199 10.2 Federal Government 199 10.3 Federal-Provincial Programs 201 10.4 Provincial Governments 201 10.5 Municipalities 202 10.6 Business and the Insurance Industry 202 10.7 Crop Insurance 202 10.8 Summary 206 References 206

PART 6: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 11.0 Summary and Conclusions 11.1 Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Canada 209 11.2 Scientific Support for Managing Natural Hazard Exposure 210 11.3 Validation of Computer Models of "Probable Maximum Loss" 210 11.4 The Changing Patchwork of Responsibility for Natural Hazards in Canada 211

APPENDIX A: Participants of the Round Table on the Insurance Industry, Natural Hazards and Environmental Risks 213 I EXECUTNE SUMMARY t EXECUTIVE SUMMARY by Rodney White

I The Process Rationale Behind Problem Selection j This report is the outcome of a meeting that Occurrence definition has long been a point was held at the University of Toronto in of contention due to the arbitrariness of such January 1996, titled "A Round Table on the conventional definitions as the "72 hour I Insurance Industry, Natural Hazards and rule". The committee wanted to know if Environmental Risks". (A list of the scientific definitions of hazardous participants is given in Appendix A.) The occurrences might provide something less I purpose of the meeting was to assess the arbitrary. This issue is likely to become potential for further co-operation between increasingly important since climate change the insurance industry (Property & Casualty) may produce a greater number of extreme I and scientists from the government and from atmospheric events, such as hail, storms and the university with regard to catastrophic tornadoes, and hence potentially more losses and environmental liability. A frequent disagreements on the nature of the I Steering Committee, established to pursue phenomenon. the matter, decided to concentrate on catastrophic losses from natural hazards as a Similarly, the validation of computer i test case for a co-operative enterprise. models of probable maximum loss from Within this focus, the committee identified natural hazards has become a matter of I three topics: increasing concern, especially due to the • the definition of an occurrence unexpectedly high losses that were incurred • the validation of computer models of by the Northridge earthquake and the I estimates of probable maximum loss possibility of an earthquake of similar • an analysis of the patchwork of magnitude striking the Vancouver area - an responsibility for losses from natural event for which the insurance industry is not I • hazards. prepared. One underlying cause of concern in using these models is that most are based These were problems that were of on the U.S. experience transferred to the I current interest to the industry and which Canadian context. With the software could be managed within the timeframe set companies being responsible for the model for the exercise, namely the summer and fall and the insurance companies responsible for I on 1996. the financial data, it is important that each party has a complete understanding of the This task turned out to be far more vast than validity of the data and the assumptions I implicit in the models. Recognition of the originally anticipated, and as a result parts of this report became very selective in terms of importance of risk models was highlighted by I the breadth of analysis. The unanticipated a survey conducted by the Office of the complexity of the problem was partly due to Superintendent of Financial Institutions to the unprecedented size of losses suffered assess the current use of these models by from natural hazards in Canada while the insurance companies in Canada. I report was written. I 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Concern over the evolving danger of becoming unmanageable due to patchwork of responsibility for losses from the variety of hazards and the even greater natural hazards was also topical due to the variety of legislative responses. In order to variety of practices across Canada, resulting keep this presentation coherent discussion from the preponderance of provincial was limited to those government bodies most legislation and the lack of harmonisation of concerned with the major risks. these regulations. This concern has been deepened by the reduction of federal support for emergency preparedness, coupled with Conclusions and Recommendations reductions in provincial spending across the country at a time when the frequency and the The conclusions are tentative and the severity of these events appear to be recommendations are developed for increasing. discussion purposes. Clearly the resolution of the problems and the improved management of risks from natural hazards in Organisation and Focus Canada will require a great deal of further effort and consultation. The exercise of This report opens with a review of producing the report met its first objective, the many factors which contribute towards which was to demonstrate the value of closer natural hazard risk in Canada and world- co-op. eration between the insurance industry, wide. Chapter two assesses current and scientists from the government and the exposure in Canada to various atmospheric, university. hydrologic and geophysical hazards. This is followed by a chapter on the implications of Historically, for Canada, the four climate change for atmospheric hazards. The most devastating natural hazards are floods, final chàpter of the introductory section droughts, hail, and tornadoes, to which draws together data on the social and should be added significant potential damage econornic impact of natural hazards in from future earthquakes, severe winter Canada. The remainder of the report storms and windstorms. In each case there is covered the three selected problems areas. a need for a more thorough analysis of our exposure to these risks, especially as losses Within each of these problem areas are mounting dramatically. It is quite clear the focus was further refined to fit the time that traditional reliance on the historic record constraint set for the task. Specifically, the for estimates of exposure has been overtaken work on occurrence definition was confined by events. The increase in exposure is partly to atmospheric events and took the Barrie- due to well-understood phenomena such as Leamington tornado(es) as its principal case population concentration in regions of high study. The assessment of the use of risk, the increase in value of household and computer models was limited to seismic risks commercial property and so on. More because of the salience of the California - disturbing is the possibility that extreme British Columbia comparison and the weather events may become more frequent unanswered questions that surround the under the climate change scenario. implications of a major earthquake in the Vancouver area. The analysis of the The scientific evidence is most patchwork on responsibility was in the most consistent for the prediction of more heat

2 I EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

I waves, more frequent and severe convective The computer models of seismic risk, storms (which are responsible for most widely in use in Canada, share a similar thunderstorms, tornadoes and hailstorms), structure although they differ in their I and more frequent floods. purposes, applications, attenuation and vulnerability functions, sensitivities and Our work uncovered serious data assumptions. The differences between the I gaps when trying to assess social and models tend to occur in how unknowns are economic costs from natural hazards, both treated, and the assumptions made about the from the direct impact of the events sensitivities of the seismic parameters. A I themselves and from the longer term costs of series of questions is presented which should adaptation and recovery. There is a need allow a prospective model-user to assess the and an opportunity for interested parties to suitability of a particular model for an I work more closely on this issue. Improved insurance company's needs. The questions data collection might encourage more relate to the reasons for the insurance I determined efforts towards loss prevention, company's use of the model, the cost which is an area where improved co- calculations it requires, and the factors it operation among the players will bring wishes to include. It is recommended that a I mutual benefits. In some cases this points to similar exercise be undertaken for models of the need for changes in legislation (to ensure atmospheric events, especially windstorms. adequate coverage and to encourage a pro- I active response from policy-holders); in The third task was to assess Canada's other cases existing legislation, such as that patchwork of responsibility for natural relating to building codes, needs to be better hazards from the point of view of mitigation I enforced. (both physical and financial), emergency preparedness, disaster response and relief, For the definition of atmospheric and recovery. This patchwork has grown in 1 occurrences, an alternative to the current response to local needs and capacities and in time-delimited definition is offered, based on many cases would benefit from review, the physical processes that form them. The especially in circumstances where some I proposal offers definitions of occurrences partners in the patchwork have taken classified by a space-time scale which unilateral decisions which could negatively demonstrates the linkages between affect the others. At a time of federal and I occurrences that lie close together. For provincial government reductions in instance, a cold front - a synoptic scale expenditures, it is important that any occurrence - can produce tornado families. proposed changes are examined for their 1 A synoptic scale specification in a contract potential impact on citizens and businesses. would provide the temporal and spatial This is something than cannot be ignored at a I dimensions of the catastrophe and implicitly time of increasing losses due to natural attribute the tornadoes to a common cause. hazards in Canada. It should be possible to develop a set of I sample contracts to test the implications of Finally, the reports encourages all the this proposal for past and hypothetical parties - the government, the insurance occurrences. industry, and the university to critically I examine the assumptions they bring to their I analysis of natural hazards in Canada. 1 3 H i! I PART I: THE SCOPE OF THIS REPORT 1.0 The Impact of Natural Hazards I by Lindsay Wallace and Rodney White 1.1 Introduction ...... 5 t 1.2 The Impact of Natural Hazards ...... 7 1.2.1 Demographic Factors ...... 7 1.2.2 Economic Growth ...... 7 1 1.2.3 Constitutional Responsibility ...... 7 1.2.4 Construction ...... 9 1.2.5 Insurance ...... 10 1 1.2.6 Perception of Risk ...... 13 I References ...... 14 t I I I I I LI I I PART I: THE SCOPE OF THIS REPORT Chapter I: The Impact of Natural Hazards 1.0 The Impact of Natural Hazards by Lindsay Wallace and Rodney White

1.1 Introduction problems associated with pollution for later consideration. This document is the outcome of a process of consultation among govenunent scientists, The pilot activity selected was the university scientists, and representatives of preparation of a background paper to the insurance industry who are disturbed by synthesise what each of the three groups trends in the natural and environmental knows about certain aspects of the natural- hazards experienced in Canada and world- hazard risk in Canada. Three salient issues wide. In part, these events are the outcome for this exercise were selected — the of increasing population, continuing definition of an "occurrence", the validation urbanisation and industrialisation, and the of computer models of "maximum possible resultant concentration of the human loss", and the emerging patchwork of population in places exposed to hazards. responsibility for natural hazards in Canada. Three principal authors — Soren E. Brun, A Round Table convened at the Dionne Gesink Law, and Lindsay Wallace — University of Toronto in January 1996 funded by Environment Canada, prepared a explored the potential for co-operation draft of the document during the summer of among governments, universities, and the 1996, under the direction of two members of insurance industry in seeking to understand the steering committee — David Etkin and the implications of these trends for the Rodney White. They then presented the management of risks, of both the report to the steering committee, for catastrophic and the environmental kind. comment and modification. They formed a steering committee to suggest ways of exploring the potential for co- Part 2 of this study offers current operation, such as development of a joint scientific explanations of the natural hazards research project, the results of which could — atmospheric, hydrologic, and geophysical — then be brought back to the Round Table that Canada has faced (chapter 2) and is and distributed to a wider audience for likely to face (chapter 3) and analyses the comment and participation. impact of these hazards (chapter 4).

The Steering Committee on the The second focus (Part 3) of our Insurance Industry, Natural Hazards and research emerged from the realisation that Environmental Risks is composed of few outside the insurance industry ever representatives of the insurance industry, the pause to ask if two storms occurring close in University of Toronto, and government time and space constitute one event or two, scientists from Environment Canada and yet the question is of great significance Emergency Preparedness Canada. The within the industry. Primary insurance cotnmittee decided to concentrate first on companies, which sell policies directly to catastrophes, leaving the environmental households and companies, usually lay off a portion of their liability for potential

5 PART I: THE SCOPE OF THIS REPORT I Chapter 1: The Impact of Natural Hazards

catastrophes to reinsurance companies, 5 pays special attention to British Columbia, I which insure insurance companies. which is exposed to the highest risk through Reinsurance comes into play when a Greater Vancouver's vulnerability to I catastrophic storm, or other event such as an earthquakes. As the risks have become earthquake, produces settlements of claims greater in magnitude there has been growing that exceed a certain amount. Hence the realisation that most people have little I importance of defining what an event is. conception of how the responsibilities for Chapter 5 (in part 3) takes some of the different kinds of risks are shared among findings presented in part I and proposes an governments, insurers, and the insured. The I approach that may reduce ambiguity in magnitude of the occurrence itself reinsurance contracts for atmospheric determines how insurance and reinsurance occurrences, where current definitions seem companies share the risk. The magnitude I ambiguous. also affects the relative shares incurred by municipal, provincial, and federal The third issue - examined in part 4 - governments. The greater magnitude of I concerns the accuracy of estimates based on events has also blurred the distinctions computer models of the probable maximum among types of events, making traditional insured loss (PML) from catastrophic natural definitions of responsibility difficult to apply. I hazards. These computer models have come Huge rainstorms have produced flash into widespread use since Hurricane Andrew flooding and sewer back-ups simultaneously (1992) and the Northridge Earthquake in urban areas. As the public sector usually (1994). The effects of these disasters pays for the former and private insurance for shocked the industry, the public, and all the latter, determining the source of the t levels of government into a sudden water that damages household basements realisation ofjust how much a major and business premises is crucial. Also, as catastrophe could cost. Quite suddenly, these events become more common, reliance on the historical record for deductibles and the cost of coverage tend to estimating the PML for a particular rise, thus increasing the insured's share of company, or the property-and-casualty the burden. The four chapters of part II t industry as a whole, became obsolete. examine the tasks and duties of various Computer simulation models for public and private actors in the four phases earthquakes, hurricanes, and other of human response to a natural disaster - I atmospheric events were quickly developed mitigation of hazards, preparation for an by specialised software companies to fill the emergency, response to a disaster, and gap. How were risk managers in the recovery from the disaster. insurance industry to assess the reliability of the estimates produced by these models? The In each of the three areas of interest approach mapped out in chapter 6 (in part 3) the scope of the problem expanded as the I focuses on seismic risk, as that is the largest work progressed, and it became impossible catastrophic risk in Canada today. to consider all kinds of risk in all parts of Canada in such a pilot exercise. The writers I The third of the three major could not keep updating coverage as events insurance issues examined, explored in part unfolded during the summer of 1996, such as I 3, was the network of responsibilities in the hail storms in the prairies and floods in Canada for the effects of catastrophes. Part Quebec in July and the heavy rains in 1 6 I PART I: THE SCOPE OF THIS REPORT Chapter I: The Impact of Natural Hazards

Ottawa/Hull in August. The purpose of this interplay of geographical, economic, document is more modest — to explore the political, and demographic factors influence potential for mutually rewarding co- the number of people vulnerable to hazards, operation among governments, universities, the total potential effect of those hazards, and the insurance industry in the field of and how this impact is shared by the private natural hazards and risk management. The and public sectors. Furthermore, activities of exercise was exploratory, and in this respect the construction and insurance sectors can it has met the expectations of the committee. affect the influence of natural hazards on It has identified a host of issues that require different groups in society. urgent attention if Canada is to be fully prepared to manage the catastrophic risks to This introductory section explores a which it is exposed. variety of these factors — demographic factors, economic growth, constitutional responsibility, construction, the role of 1.2 The Impact of insurance, and perception of risk — and seeks Natural Hazards to explain how they can affect the impact of a disaster and its distribution among people The public and private costs of natural and groups. hazards have been increasing in Canada and around the world. For example, in July 1.2.1 Demographic Factors 1996, while this paper was being written, hail Chapter 2 will describe how the physical storms on the Canadian prairies were geography of Canada affects its vulnerability generating insurance claims worth in excess to natural hazards. Human geography — of $295 million, not including crop damage, especially population size and distribution — and flooding in the Saguenay region of also affects losses from natural hazards. Quebec is expected to cost the economy Canada's population has been growing over $1 billion (insured and uninsured). Up steadily since Confederation and now stands until 1994, the most costly year on record in at 29 million (Statistics Canada, 1996). terms of insurance costs from major multiple Eighty percent of the population lives within payouts was $450 million. In 1996 it a narrow band stretching 300 km north of amounted to $920 million, over twice the the U.S. border (EPC, 1995). Consequently, previous record. Up until fiscal year (FY) some hazards, particularly those that occur in 1994/95, disaster financial assistance (DFA) the sparsely populated north, do not payments from the federal government had jeopardise the lives and property of many never exceeded $80 million. In FY 1996/97 Canadians. However, Canada is vulnerable it was $144 million, of which $100 million to some American hazards, for example, was for the Saguenay disaster. It is volcanic ash from Mt. St Helens and estimated that the total DFA costs for the earthquakes in Puget Sound. Saguenay will be around $250 million. The recent flooding in Manitoba (April/May, Canada has become increasingly 1997) may well cost the DFA program $200 urban; 75 % of the population now live in million or more. An increase in the urban areas and their outlying suburbs (EPC, frequency and severity of disasters may 1995a). Urbanisation has increased the account partially for these costs. An potential losses arising from natural hazards because of greater concentrations of people

7 PART I: THE SCOPE OF THIS REPORT Chapter 1: The Impact of Natural Hazards and assets. For example, the potential loss devastating natural hazard — an earthquake in of life and cost of an earthquake in Greater the lower B.C. mainland — could now cost Vancouver have been rising with population $30 billion, or one-third of the province's growth. Between 1986 and 1991, British annual GDP. Such an event could cause an Columbia's population increased by 13.8 % — economic shock 10 times greater than the much faster than the national average of 7.9 most recent recession, and less than half of % (Statistics Canada, 1996). Moreover, this loss would be covered by insurance Vancouver has been the second-fastest- (IBC, 1994a). If current trends continue, the growing urban area in the country, with economic vulnerability of Canadians to an average annual growth of 2.9 % between earthquake in British Columbia will increase. 1987 and 1995 (Statistics Canada, 1996). Urbanisation has also increased potential 1.2.3 Constitutional Responsibility losses from localised atmospheric hazards The division of powers between different such as tornadoes and hail storms. levels of government can also affect the impact of natural hazards. The Constitution In the case of earthquakes, for which Act, 1867 (formerly the British North separate insurance can be purchased, America Act, 1867), delineates jurisdiction demographic factors can affect the way the for various activities between the federal and financial impact of an event is shared among provincial governments. The federal private and public sectors. Research in government has jurisdiction in such areas as California found that the propénsity to buy defence, foreign affairs, criminal law, money earthquake insurance increases with age and banking, international trade, air, marine (Palm, 1990). Age distribution in Canada, as and rail transportation, citizenship, and in most Western countries, is skewed Native affairs. Provincial governments are towards the "baby boomers" — the generation responsible for such matters as education, born after 1945. Consequently, a larger health and welfare, civil law, highways, proportion of the population is likely to own natural resources, and local government homes, buy insurance, and hence make (EPC, 1995b). Local and municipal claims in the event of an earthquake. governments provide such services as police, fire, public transportation, urban roadways, 1.2.2 Economic Growth local public works, sanitation, snow removal, Economic growth also affects the financial and health and welfare administration. impact of natural hazards. Canada has experienced a large increase in its gross Political factors can affect the domestic product (GDP) since 1945, though distribution of economic and social costs growth has been slowing since the 1970s and among levels of government. Costs and currently stands at approximately 3 % per benefits regarding natural hazards, for annum. Economic growth has varied across mitigation, preparation, relief, and response the country over the past 30 years and moves may be paid for, or received by, different in concert with population growth. governments. Consequently, the incentive Provinces such as Alberta and British for one level to minimise hazard is reduced if Columbia have experienced significant another level ultimately pays for that loss. growth, while others, including the Atlantic One such example is building codes, which provinces and some areas of Quebec, have are researched and recommended nationally, grown much more slowly. Canada's most legislated by the provinces, and enforced at

8 I PART I: THE SCOPE OF THIS REPORT I Chapter 1: The Impact of Natural Hazards the municipal level. If building codes are not Another construction-related enforced, funds for repairing avoidable problem is lack of knowledge concerning the t damage come from private insurance vulnerability of various locations. In the companies or the federal and provincial earthquake of 1995 in Kobe, Japan, house governments. construction contributed to the high death I toll. Japan's Ministry of Construction had 1.2.4 Construction thought that tropical storms and hurricanes, The ability of a building to withstand a not earthquakes, were the primary threat to I natural disaster is influenced by age, type of Kobe. Consequently, houses were built with construction, materials used, and type of heavy roofs and light walls to withstand high hazard. winds. However, because of heavy motion I during the Kobe quake, most houses lost The National Research Council their footings, causing roofs to collapse. (NRC) conducts research on buildings and This was how 90 % of Kobe's 5,470 deaths I makes recommendations about the National occurred (Valery, 1995). Building Code of Canada (NBCC) and the National Fire Safety Code. Construction In earthquake-prone regions in I Canada, the threat from ensuing fires is often standards rest with the provinces. Saskatchewan, Quebec, New Brunswick, overlooked in building codes. Construction I and Nova Scotia have adopted the 1990 materials can affect the size and development National Building Code unamended, with the of fires that may follow a quake. The remaining provinces adapting it before doing National Fire Safety Code, however, does I so (IBC, 1994a). not contain special provisions for earthquake-prone regions susceptible to Municipal enforcement, however, is large fires afterward (IBC, 1994a). I uneven. Unanchored mobile homes have been shown to be hazardous in the event of a Age of building stock also affects the tornado. To mitigate this hazard, the NBBC impact of natural hazards. Many buildings I recommends that mobile homes be anchored were erected when knowledge of natural to their foundations. Eight of the people hazards, earthquakes in particular, was in its killed in the tornadoes that occurred in infancy. Consequently, much of Canada's I western Quebec and eastern Ontario between private building stock, as well as public 1970 and 1984 were inside light mobile infrastructure, fails to meet current standards i homes or frame cottages that became for structural integrity during an earthquake airborne (Allen, 1984). In the Barrie- (IBC, 1994a). In British Columbia, buildings Orangeville tornadoes of 1985, all but constructed since 1985 have been designed possibly one of the deaths and very serious to withstand shaking resulting from an I earthquake. It is estimated that only half of injuries inside residential buildings occurred in houses not properly anchored to the British Columbia's buildings constructed I foundation (Allen, 1986). Similarly, in between 1960 and 1985 can withstand Florida, insurers estimate that $4 billion shaking, and those erected before 1941 have (U.S.), or 25 % of total insured losses from little or no earthquake tolerance (1BC, t Hurricane Andrew could have been averted 1994a). Furthermore, while the NRC if building codes had been properly enforced provides guidelines for evaluating buildings I (IBC, 1994a). 1 9 PART I: THE SCOPE OF THIS REPORT I Chapter 1: The Impact of Natural Hazards for seismic resistance, there are no similar total sales of more than $17.6 billion in 1995 1 codes for retrofitting (IBC, 1994a). and controlled assets were more than $41 billion (IBC, 1996). Over the years, the I While research in construction has industry has paid more than $1 billion to helped reduce the potential for deaths from 400,000 home, business, and vehicle owners natural hazards, this improvement may be to compensate for losses caused by natural I costly. If buildings are designed to collapse hazards (EPC, 1996). It is estimated that the slowly and incrementally, rather than insured loss from a major earthquake in the suddenly and massively, during an Vancouver area could range from $9 billion t earthquake, so as to protect human life, non- to $12 billion (EPC, 1996) and three structural damage, particularly to interiors, regulatory and economic multipliers could increases. The value of damage done to drive up the costs. First, inflation in the I non-structural components can exceed that price of building materials can occur in areas done to the building structure. Thus, hit by the disaster as a result of high demand, technology-dependent firms may be low supply, and/or price gouging. After I particularly vulnerable to earthquakes Hurricane Andrew, for example, costs for (Murphy, 1992). building material increased 300% and inflation also followed the Calgary hailstorm 1.2.5 Insurance of 1991 (Ross, personal communication). When an individual faces a risk such as loss Second, older buildings would have to be I from a natural hazard, he or she can usually rebuilt and/or repaired to meet current by- manage that risk by purchasing insurance. laws, which are generally much stricter than Insurance works on the principle of pooling old ones. Finally, modern buildings are I risks and charging customers a premium designed to reduce the losses of life during based on the average risk of the pool with an earthquake, and so many that would some variation based on individual risk remain standing would probably be declared characteristics. It allows the individual to unsafe. substitute a small, defined expenditure (the premium) for a large but uncertain future The coverage of homeowners' I loss. Policy holders who escape losses help insurance policies varies with price and to compensate those who are directly and company, but is also guided by provincial adversely affected by loss (IBC, 1995a). If a legislation. For example, Co-operators I large number of individuals in a hazard zone Insurance covers a number of natural hazards purchase insurance, then a greater including fire, lightning, wind storm, and hail proportion of the costs resulting from natural damage. Homeowners can also purchase I hazards will be borne by the insurance earthquake coverage for an additional industry. This section discusses aspects of premium. Natural hazards not covered I insurance that can affect the division of costs include damage caused by snowslides, of natural hazards between the public and landslides, and other earth movement, in private sectors: coverage, pricing, addition to damage caused by sewer back-up I reinsurance, and the solvency of the industry. (although coverage for the latter is available for an extra premium). As well, there is no The property-and-casualty sector of coverage for damage caused by waves, I the insurance market insures natural-hazard flooding, and the weight or pressure of losses to property. In Canada, it registered melting ice or snow (Co-operators, 1994). I 10 I PART I: THE SCOPE OF THIS REPORT Chapter 1: The Impact of Natural Hazards

Localised risks such as flooding and have made proper pricing of certain waves do not satisfy basic underwriting insurance risks extremely difficult. requirements (IBC, 1994b) and so are not covered by standard insurance policies. For A frequency of major catastrophes insurance to be actuarially sound, a large internationally tends both to reduce the population must be exposed to a risk, with amount of reinsurance available and to only a small proportion likely to sustain a increase the cost of reinsurance, and this loss at any given time (IBC, 1994b). affects Canadian insurers who also have to Furthermore, losses must be random, so that pay higher reinsurance premiums. During the risk is spread among the larger the 1995/1996 renewal season, many population. With flood and landslide losses, reinsurers imposed an event or occurrence adverse selection occurs - individuals who limit on contracts where no such limit had have the greatest incentive to buy insurance previously existed and which limit the are those who pose the worst risk. Insuring reinsurers loss from natural perils or individuals who live in a floodplain or below catastrophes (F'redette, 1995). These a landslide-prone slope means an inevitability developments have an impact on the of a claim and offering coverage at capability of the insurance industry in Canada affordable prices would no longer be to withstand a major disaster, and also on the actuarially sound. To avoid adverse public and private distribution of natural selection and inevitability of loss, insurers do hazard costs. not cover certain perils. While the pricing of insurance is Earthquakes, however, are not somewhat controlled by external forces, affected by adverse selection because they pricing and underwriting mechanisms can place a relatively large population at risk (for affect losses as seen in the following areas. example, Vancouver). Furthermore, damage to individual homes within this risk area is Premiums and deductibles can randomly distributed and consequently encourage mitigation. For property and satisfies a key criterion for underwriting casualty insurance, companies could use acceptability (IBC, 1994a). An individual's deductibles or premiums to encourage decision on whether or not to purchase home individuals to adopt mitigation measures in insurance can be affected by price, and this their homes and businesses. Levying a choice then can change the division of public smaller premium or deductible on those who and private costs of natural hazards. When took mitigative action - such as securing more people are insured against natural larger objects in their homes - would hazards, a greater proportion of the total increase the incentive for individuals to cost of that hazard is borne by the insurance perform such activities. Moreover, losses industry. Premiums for property-and- from the hazards would decrease. However, casualty insurance are determined by the the Insurance Bureau of Canada feels that interplay of market forces, risk, government the current insurance market fails to regulations, taxes, and availability and costs encourage efforts to reduce losses (IBC, of reinsurance (IBC, 1995a). In recent 1994a). years, the cost of reinsurance increased substantially, although it is now dropping Also, easing of legal requirements again, and some government regulations might affect losses and encourage better

11 PART I: THE SCOPE OF THIS REPORT Chapter 1: The Impact of Natural Hazards coverage. The common-law provinces (all Consequently, two households facing similar except Quebec) require insurers to include dollar amounts of damage from the same coverage for fire, regardless of its cause, in catastrophic event may face significantly their standard homeowner's policies. The different levels of support from their industry argues that this requirement makes insurance company (IBC, 1994a). This it unable to price effectively homeowner's inequality creates a moral hazard for the policies in British Columbia. For insurance industry, as those who have earthquake to be actuarially sound, premiums must be coverage could commit arson in order to based on the average risk of a pool of benefit from a lower fire deductible and this individuals. In the event of an earthquake, it could greatly compound damage resulting is often the fire that follows which causes the from fire following a quake. A second moral most damage. Open flames, electrical hazard is that an insured with no earthquake malfunctions, chemical spills, and ruptured shake damage coverage, but whose building fuel tanks and natural-gas lines are often was damaged by the shaking ,could also be catalysts of such post-quake fires, and they tempted to commit arson as the fire damage are usually fuelled by flammable building would be covered and it could be very materials and modern building furnishings difficult at time of a major quake to (Munich Re, 1992). In the most devastating determine which damage was fire and which earthquakes, these small fires can coalesce arose from the shake. into larger fires, posing a threat to human life and property. The Munich Re study of the The combination of limited economic impact of an earthquake in the availability of reinsurance, moral hazard, lower B.C. mainland estimated that fire failure to reward efforts at mitigation, and would cost approximately #3.39 billion to the legislative requirement to cover fire $6.20 billion. following an earthquake, has hindered efficient pricing of insurance. Some Requiring that fire following a quake observers are concerned about the solvency be covered poses three problems for the of the property-and-casualty insurance insurance industry. First, it makes the risk industry. In the event of a major B.C. difficult to price, as the risk of fire must earthquake, the industry would face a include the potential loss from earthquakes. probable maximum loss of $9.7 billion to $12 Second, as the Insurance Bureau of Canada billion. The industry's capacity in the has argued, distribution of quake-related fire province was estimated in 1994 to be $2.3 protection may be inciting insurance firms, billion - far short of possible needs (IBC, under competitive market conditions, to 1994c). The Canadian insurance industry is underestimate further, or ignore, earthquake- at risk, should there be such an event (IBC, related fire losses in computing prices for 1994c). basic coverage (IBC, 1994a). This situation places at a disadvantage firms that attempt to The IBC has estimated that roughly price fire damage properly. Third, the fire one-quarter of companies writing property coverage provided by homeowners' policies insurance in British Columbia would become is more generous and less costly than insolvent following an earthquake in earthquake coverage. In general, deductibles Vancouver (IBC, 1994d). Furthermore, for earthquake-shake damage are much these insolvencies would be felt throughout greater than those for fire damage. the Canadian insurance market, which might

12 I PART I: THE SCOPE OF THIS REPORT I Chapter 1: The Impact of Natural Hazards not be able to meet claims from other areas have already experienced one "act of God," of the country. A contagion effect could such as an earthquake, may feel that another t occur if policy holders cancelled policies is not likely to affect them. Second, because with companies that they felt might become of the psychological process of editing, some insolvent, making insolvency a self-fulfilling people assume that improbable events, such I prophecy for many firms. Chapter 6 looks at as "acts of God," are impossible. If they do regulation of the industry and efforts to not feel at risk, they will not purchase mitigate the potential financial effects of a insurance or attempt other efforts at I B.C. quake. reducing their vulnerability. For example, 60% of homeowners in Vancouver buy 1.2. 6 Perception of Risk earthquake insurance, while less than 5% of I Finally, how individuals perceive their people in Montreal do so, even though the vulnerability to natural hazards shapes risks are similar. responses to them and hence their cost. If U they see themselves as vulnerable to certain Given that individuals generally have risks, they try to manage that risk. Natural skewed perceptions about the extent to I hazards are typically viewed as involuntary which they are at risk, it is not surprising that risks, but preparing the household for an Canadians are confused about their insurance emergency and purchasing insurance are coverage for quake damage. An IBC survey I voluntary responses to this unchosen risk. found that in the event of an earthquake, Standard household insurance does not 70% of Canadians would turn to insurance cover earthquakes, but homeowners can companies for financial support, and 17%, to I purchase coverage for an additional government (IBC, 1995b). Surprisingly, premium. Consequently, if many people feel 60% of Canadians who have no home or vulnerable to such a risk, sales of earthquake tenant insurance at all would look to I insurance rise. In turn, insurance claims may insurance companies for support, and 23%, increase after a quake and perhaps further to government (IBC, 1995b). These results challenge the industry's solvency. Recent point to the need for increased public I studies have shown, however, that Canadians education about risks related to natural and Americans underestimate their hazards and ways of reducing vulnerability, vulnerability to earthquakes and the such as insurance coverage. I likelihood that any resulting loss is covered by insurance (IBC, 1995b; Palm, 1990). Perceptions of risk related to hydrometerological hazards can have a I In a longitudinal study of Californian significant impact. For example, homeowners, Palm (1990) found that development in flood plains, even if they are perceived vulnerability to quake damage protected by dams, dykes and levees can I occasionally lead to costly disasters, when substantially affects whether or not people purchase earthquake insurance. While nature provides a hazardous event beyond I everyone in quake-prone regions is the design period of our protections (e.g. potentially susceptible, not all see themselves Saguenay). Homes, especially trailer homes, as being such. First, many believe in the can be made much more wind and tornado I gambler's fallacy - after one hazard occurs, resistant by anchoring their roofs and walls. there will not be another (Petak and These mitigative actions will only occur, I Anderson, 1982). Consequently, those who 13 1 PART I: THE SCOPE OF THIS REPORT I Chapter 1: The Impact of Natural Hazards I though if the owners perceive the risk as Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC). (1994b). great enough. Insurance Bureau of Canada Position Paper: A Statement of Principles Regarding Insurance and Natural Hazards. IBC, Toronto. November. I In sum, geographical, political, economic, demographic, insurance, Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC). (1994c). construction, and psychological factors all Canadian Earthquake Exposure and the I affect both the absolute cost of natural General Insurance Industry: Part 1-- Probable hazards to Canadians and the division of cost Maximum Loss Analysis. IBC, Toronto. February. between and within public and private entities. Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC). (1994d). Canadian Earthquake Exposure and the General Insurance Industry: Part II -- References Financial Impact Analysis. IBC, Toronto. February.

Allen, D. E. (1986). Tornado damage in the Munich Insurance Company of Canada (Munich Barrie/Orangeville Area, Ontario. National Re). (1992). A Study of the Economic Impact of Research Council, Ottawa. May, 1985. a Severe Earthquake in Lower Mainland B.C. Munich Re, Toronto. Allen, D. E. (1984). Tornado damage at Blue Sea Lake and Nicabong, Quebec. National Research Murphy, R. (1992). Storm clouds ahead for buyers. Council, Ottawa. July, 1984. Best's Review (January): 31-91. I Co-operators General Insurance Company. (1994). Palm, R. (1990). Natural Hazards: An Integrative Homeowners Insurance Policy. Framework for Research and Planning. John I Hopkins University Press, Baltimore. Fredette, A. (1995). Kobe: A lesson for Canada. Canadian Insurance (March): 8-10. Petak, W. J. and Atkinson, A. A. (1982). Natural Hazard Risk Assessment and Public Policy: I Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC). (1996). Anticipating the Unexpected. Springer-Verlag, Natural Hazards. National Atlas of Canada. New York.

Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC). (1995a). A I Ross, A. (personal communication). SOREMA. Summary of Federal Emergency Preparedness 1996. in Canada. EPC, Ottawa. Statistics Canada. (1996). CANSIM Database. I Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC). (1995b). Various matrices. Departmental Planning Responsibilities for Emergency Preparedness. EPC, Ottawa. June. Valery, N. (1995). Survey of earthquake I engineering. Economist, 22, April. Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC). (1995a). Facts About Property and Casualty Industry. IBC, Zeckhauser, R. (1988). Insurance and Catastrophes. Toronto. I The Geneva Convention Annual Lecture, Harvard University, May. -Insurance Bure au of Canada (IBC). (1995b). Public Opinion Environment. IBC, Toronto. February. I

Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC). (1994a). Canadian Earthquake Exposure and the General Insurance Industry: A Proposal for Action. IBC, Toronto. October. I 14 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA

2.0 Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards by Soren E. Brun 2.1 Introduction 15 2.2 Atmospheric Hazards 17 2.2.1 Thunderstorms 17 Thunderstorm Development .17 2.2.2 Tornadoes 21 The Mechanics of Tornadic Thunderstorms 21 2.2.3 Hail 26 Hailstone Formation 27 2.2.4 Lightning 30 Electrification of Clouds 30 2.2.5 Tropical Cyclones and Hurricanes 32 Hurricane Movement and Developmental Stages 32 Conditions Necessaty for Hurricane Development and Longevity 35 2.2.6 Mid-latitude Cyclones (Extra-Tropical Storms) 35 2.2.7 Severe Winter Storms 37 Coastal Storms 37 Blizzards 39 Freezing Rain 39 Physical Processes of Sleet and Freezing Rain 45 Severe Cold Snaps 45 Lake-Effect Snows 45 2.2.8 Geomagnetic Storms 47 Influence of Geomagnetic Storms on Human Infrastructure .48 2.2.9 Windstorrns 48 Processes of Windstorm Damage 50 2.3 Hydrologic Hazards 50 2.3.1 Drought 50 2.3.2 Floods 54 Rainstorm Floods 56 kejam Floods 56 Snowmelt Floods 56 2.4 Geophysical Hazards 56 2.4.1 Earthquakes and Tsunamis 57 Tectonics and Earthquakes 57 Mechanics of Earthquakes 59 Seismic Waves 59 2.4.2 Tsunamis 60 2.4.3 Mass Movements 60 2.3.4 Volcanic Eruptions 61 2.5 Summary 63 References 63 I 3.0 Climate Change and The Future of Atmospheric Hazards by David Etkin and Saren E. Brun I 3.1 Introduction ...... 66 3.2 Tropical Cyclones ...... 67 3.3 Extra-Tropical Storms (Mid-latitude cyclones) ...... 67 I 3.4 Thunderstorms .-----...--...... 68 3.5 Extreme Temperature Events ...... 68 3.6 Floods ...... 69 I 3.7 Drought ...... 70 3.8 Other Hazards ...... 70 3.9 Summary ...... 71 I References ...... 71 I 4.0 The Social and Economic Impact of Hydrometeorological Hazards and Disasters: a Preliminary Inventory I by David Etkin 4.1 Introduction ...... 74 4.2 What Are Natural Disasters? ...... 76 I 4.3 Natural Hazards in Context ...... 76 4.4 Social Costs in Canada ...... 76 4.4.1 Transportation ...... 76 I Aircraft Accidents ...... 76 Railway Accidents ...... 81 81 I Marine Accidents ...... Ontario Road Accidents ...... 81 4.4.2 Number of Time Loss Injuries ...... 81 I 4.4.3 Time Lost at Work...... 81 4.4.4. Extreme Heat ...... 81 4.4.4 Deaths ...... 87 t 4.5 Economic Costs ...... 87 4.5.1 Adaptation Costs ...... 87 4.5.2 Costs due to Impacts ...... 87 I Other Countries and World-wide ...... 87 4.5.3 Economic Costs to Canada from Natural Hazards ...... 90 Forest Fires ...... 90 I Hydro Companies ...... 90 4.5.4 Federal Payments by Emergency Preparedness Canada to the Provinces ...... 90 4.5.5 Provincial Costs ...... 99 Crop Inszrrance ...... ---..--.--...... 99 Disaster Financial Assistance ...... 99 Insured Costs ...... 99 I 4.5.6 Municipalities ...... 99 Regional Municipality of Ottawa-Carleton ...... 99 City of St. Catherines ...... 109 I City of Calgary ...... 109 4.6 Summary ...... 109 I 4.7 Caveats ...... 109 References...... -...... 110 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS 1N CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards 2.0 Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards by Soren E. Brun

2.1 Introduction Natural Hazards are costly, and becoming more so. In this section, various hazards to which Canadians are exposed are overviewed, in terms of their impacts, their physical causes and their frequency of occurrence.

There has recently been increasing concern Three recent examples of Canadian about the occurrence of natural hazards disasters occurred in July 1996, when throughout the world. The number of damaging hailstorms hit Calgary, Alberta and disasters and their impacts resulting from Winnipeg, Manitoba, and severe flooding these hazards have steadily increased during devastated the Saguenay region of Quebec. the past twenty years (Canadian National The costliest single Canadian event was the Report - IDNDR, 1994). To what extent Calgary hailstorm of 1991 which totalled they are due to increased human exposure $450 million in economic losses with $360 or to an actual increase in the frequency million sustained by the insurance industry. and magnitude of the hazards, or both, is The drought of 1988 cost Canada about $1.4 not clear. Regardless of the reason, these billion in insurance and government disasters have had an impact on millions of subsidies. The costs of the Saguenay flood people around the world, and mitigation have been estimated between $1-1.5 billion. measures and reconstruction have been very costly. Though historical costs for atmospheric and hydrologic hazards are From 1984-1994, the Canadian substantial, future geophysical events (e.g. insurance industry has paid more than $1 earthquakes) could be staggeringly billion to compensate for the losses sustained expensive. For instance, if a single high by major natural disasters for damage to magnitude earthquake occurred in homes, businesses and vehicles. This total Vancouver or lower Quebec, the economic represents an average outlay of $100 million losses could range from $14 to $32 billion per year for daims arising from events such (Canadian National Report - IDNDR, 1994). as thunderstorms, tornadoes, hail, windstorms and flooding. The total costs to Therefore it seems imperative for Canada, including the uninsured costs and scientists, government, and the insurance damage to public property, is estimated at industry to gain an understanding of the more than double the insurance costs potential threats, as well as their effects on (Canadian National Report - lDNDR, 1994). Canadian society. Accordingly, this section Figure 2.1 shows costs incurred by the is devoted to documenting the occurrence of insurance industry for major multiple payouts Canadian atmospheric, hydrologic and resulting from atmospheric hazards. The geophysical hazards. most expensive events are hail, tornadoes, flood, storm and windstorm. This figure does not include the costs of smaller events, and therefore the true costs are much higher.

15 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards I I I Wind I

Storm I

Flooding I I Tornadoes I Hail I

$100 $200 $300 $400 $500 I Costs (thousands $) I Figure 2.1 Weather Related Insurance Costs (1984-1994) from Major Multiple Payouts (1995$). Source: Insurance Bureau of Canada I I III I I 16 'I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS I CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards

2.2 Atmospheric Hazards unstable air masses that migrate northward into Canada. Figure 2.2 shows the spatial Of all the natural hazards which threaten distribution of the mean number of human society, those caused or facilitated thunderstorm days across Canada for the by weather extremes are the most years 1951 to 1980. The eastern maximum common (Smith, 1996). On a world-wide of more than thirty per year occurs in south- basis, relatively few people are directly western Ontario. The western Canadian exposed to geologic hazards (e.g. maximum, of between twenty-five and thirty, earthquakes or mass movement of the earth's occurs on the prairies encompassing much of surface); everyone, however, is exposed to Alberta. the variability of weather and climate. Canada, like many countries, is exposed to a Thunderstorm Development wide variety of weather extremes (Etkin and There are three stages to thunderstorm cloud Maarouf, 1995). These include cold waves development: cumulus, mature and and blizzards, thunderstorms, tornadoes, dissipation (see Figure 2.3). These three hail, windstorm, lightning and even tropical stages can take as little as thirty minutes and cyclones and geomagnetic storms. as long as a couple of hours (even longer for more intense supercell thunderstorms). The section provides an overview of the major atmospheric hazards that threaten Thunderstorms are initiated in Canadian society. For each hazard, a unstable atmospheric environments when summary of both the temporal and spatial warm, moist air rises. As it ascends, it cools distribution of each hazard and the physical and reaches its condensation level where the processes that lead to its development will be moisture in the air condenses to form given. cumulus clouds which have a billowing, white appearance (see Figure 2.3). As more 2.2.1 Thunderstorms incoming moisture-laden air rises from Thunderstorms are a significant natural below, eventually an extensive vertically hazard, producing a variety of potentially developed cumulus cloud will form. The dangerous situations: damaging hail, updraft formed in this stage is strong enough tornadoes, high winds, intense rainfall to keep the water droplets suspended within and lightning. Furthermore, a single, well the cloud, and no precipitation occurs. developed thunderhead can produce all of these hazards. A thunderstorm is loosely The mature stage is marked by a well defined as any storm which contains defined updraft on the leading edge of the lightning and thunder. storm, with a downdraft immediately aft (see Figure 2.3). Two processes produce the On any given day, there are about downdraft: 40,000 thunderstorrns of various intensities 1. As warm, moist air rises and cools, it occurring around the globe (Ahrens, 1994). condenses to form rain drops. When In Canada, they occur typically in the warm these drops grow too large to be season, between early spring and early fall. supported by the updraft, they begin to Heavy thunderstorm activity in summer fall. As they do, they drag air down results from the presence of warm, moist, with them, initiating the downdraft. This will form a precipitation shaft in the

17 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards I I I I I I I

I I I

20 25 I 25 -ZU Figure 2.2 Number of days with thunderstorms (1951-1980) 25 I Source: Environment Canada (1987). 30 I I

18 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards i I I I I I Cumulus Mature Dissipation

I Figure 2.3 Stages in thunderstorm development. I I Anvil I I I I I I I Figure 2.4 Potential sites for severe weather of an ordinary thunderstorm I 19 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards

aft portion of the storm, which is now daytime solar heating of the earth's surface, called a towering cumulonimbus cloud. which warms the surface air and causes it to 2. The downdraft is initiated by the rise on its own. In convergence, air streams evaporative cooling of the air within the narrow, forcing air to move vertically, which cloud. Because cooler air is more dense happens with low-pressure areas. Frontal and less buoyant than warm air, some of lifting takes place where warm and cold air the air inside the cloud will begin to sink masses meet. As the air masses collide, back down to the earth's surface, warm air is forced up and over the cold air. thereby forming the downdraft. In general, cold fronts have a steeper frontal surface than warm fronts and therefore, cold When the downdraft becomes fronts force surface air up more rapidly than dominant, because of its cooling effect and do warm fronts. Cold fronts more precipitation drag, it will interfere with the commonly form major thunderstorms and updraft. This cuts off the storm moisture severe weather. In general, thunderstorms and energy supply, and the storm will begin initiated by convection or convergence are to dissipate. weaker than those produced by cold fronts.

In its mature stage, a thunderstorm The majority of thunderstorms do helps to maintain the balance of moisture, not become severe. In most instances, heat and electricity between the earth's when the updraft can no longer support the surface and the atmosphere. This stage can larger water drops within the cloud, they be thought of as analogous to a large begin to fall back to earth through the vacuum cleaner. Warm moist air is injected updraft itself, weakening it in the process. into the leading edge of the storm. This air For a thunderstorm to become severe — with then rises, cools, condenses and releases the 3/4 inch hail and/or surface wind gusts of 50 energy (called latent heat) previously stored lcnots (Ahrens, 1994) — a strong vertical in the moisture. The energy released from wind shear must be present. Such a shear is condensation is used as fuel for the storm. produced when wind speeds aloft are greater The waste product is water which exits in the than and/or from a different direction than rear portion of the cloud (see Figure 2.3). those near the surface, causing the updraft to tilt during the mature stage. Any falling For thunderheads to form, the precipitation will then fall away from the unstable atmosphere must possess two updraft into the downdraft below. This helps characteristics — an abundance of low level to build the strengths of both the updraft and moisture to serve as fuel for the growing downdraft allowing more air to be circulated storm, and a lifting mechanism to induce through the system. Figure 2.4 depicts an upward motion (the `trigger'). In general, ordinary thunderstorm in the mature stage, there are four kinds of lifting mechanisms: showing the potential sites for severe orographic, convection, convergence and weather. frontal. Orographie refers to lifting due to a barrier to the flow (e.g. a mountain). Though this mechanism does not usually form thunderstorms, it can produce heavy rainfall in mountainous regions and lead to flooding. Convection is often caused by the

20 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards

I 2.2.2 Tornadoes 155 were injured, and total damage was Tornadic thunderstorms are the most estimated at $100 million. Table 2.1 lists the t violent and damaging type of weather 10 worst Canadian tornadoes, by the number extreme (Klemp, 1987). In comparison to of fatalities. average thunderstorms, which normally only I produce heavy rainfall and decay within 40 Tornado intensities are classified by minutes, tornadic thunderstorms can last for the Fujita Scale (Fujita, 1973) (see Table several hours (Klemp, 1987; Ahrens, 1994). 2.2). FO and F1 tornadoes are weak, causing I Although tornadic events in Canada are little damage; while F4 and F5's can cause relatively rare and have limited damage paths major devastation. Canada, unlike the in comparison to other natural hazards, they United States, does not receive many of the I still represent a significant hazard because of more damaging tornadoes. From 1918 to their rapid speed of onset and violent wind 1992, Canada recorded no F5's and only 8 speeds. They can reach devastating levels F4's (Etkin and Brun, unpublished). Most I within minutes. The structure, dynamics, Canadian tornadoes range from FO to F2 prediction and hazards of tornadoes is (see Table 2.3). Table 2.4 lists the mean reviewed by Church et al. (1993). areal extent of damage caused by each F- 1 scale type. Tornadoes are rapidly spinning columns of air which extend down from the Figure 2.5 gives the tornado I frequency for Canada, adjusted to include base of thunderheads. Their diameter at the earth's surface is usually from 100 to 600 m. tornadoes that likely occur, but which are t Occasionally, however, especially with the not observed (Etkin and Brun, unpublished) more violent ones, the tornado's diameter - surpassed only by the United States (Etkin has exceeded 1.6 km (Ahrens, 1994). and Maarouf, 1995). Extreme south-western I Tornadoes usually remain in contact with the Ontario has the highest tornado frequency in ground for only short distances - rarely more Canada, with approximately 10 events per than 25 km. Their forward motion averages year per 10,000 km2. A maximum of J 65 kph, but they have been known to travel approximately five events per year per as fast as 100 kph (Ahrens, 1994). 10,000 km2 occurs in western Canada. The annual and diurnal patterns of tornadic I To make tornadoes even more events are shown in Figures 2.6 and 2.7, hazardous, they commonly occur in families; respectively (Etkin and Brun, unpublished). a single line of thunderstorms can spawn The peak number of events occurs during the 1 numerous tornadoes. In the most extreme month of July, between 2 and 4 p.m. case, on April 3-4, 1974, 148 tornadoes cut through 13 U.S. states, killing 307 people, The Mechanics of Tornadic Thunderstorms I injuring more than 6000, and causing an There are two basic atmospheric conditions estimated $600 million in damages (Ahrens, required for the development of tornadic 1994). In Canada, a family of seven thunderstorms: very unstable air and cloud I rotation resulting from wind shear. Where tornadoes travelled through South-western Ontario on May 31, 1985 (Newark, 1988), very unstable air is present, severe I extensively damaging Barrie, Orangeville and thunderstorms are produced. These Grand Valley. Twelve people were killed, thunderstorms are often associated with I frontal lifting mechanisms, where air is 21 1

PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS LN CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards

Table 2.1 Ten most deadly Canadian to rnado occurrences. Rank Location Date No. of No. of Damage ($) fatalities injured

1 Regina 30 June, 28 hundreds 4 million 1912

2 Edmonton 31 July, 1987 27 253 250 million 3 Windsor 17 June, 17 hundreds 1.5 million 1946 4 St. Zotique 16 August, 9 14 extensive to Valleyfield 1888 damage Quebec 5 Windsor 3 April, 1974 9 30 1.5 million 6 Barrie, 31 May, 8 155 100 million Ontario 1985 7 Buchtouche, 6 August, 7 10 100 thousand New 1879 Brunswick 8 Sudbury, 20 August, 6 200 5 million Ontario 1970 9 Montreal 14 June, 6 26 unknown 1982

10 Portage la 22 June, 5 unlcnown extensive Prairie, 1922 damage Manitoba

Source: Phillips (1990).

22 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hrydrologic and Geophysical Hazards I Table 2.2 F-scale classification according to wind speed and damage. F number Maximum gust Type of damage 1 speed (kph) FO 64-115 Light: broken tree branches and signs

I Fl 116-179 Moderate: trees snapped, windows broken

F2 180-251 Considerable: large trees uprooted, weak structures 1 destroyed

1 F3 252-329 Severe: trees levelled, cars overturned, walls removed from buildings I F4 330-416 Devastating: wooden frame houses destroyed F5 417-508 Incredible: severe damage to steel-reinforced I structures. I Source: Fujita (1973); Ahrens (1994). I Table 2.3 F-scale intensities for eastern and western Canada ( 1918 - 1992). I Total no. of Percentage Total no. of Percentage Total no . of Percentage each type Western each type Eastern each type All All of F scale Western Canada Eastern Canada of Canada Canada I Canada Canada 0 209 40.6 459 47.6 668 45.1

I 1 139 26.9 290 30.1 429 29.0 I 2 138 26.7 177 18.4 315 21.3 3 29 5.6 31 3.2 60 4.1 I 4 1 0.2 7 0.7 8 0.5 Total 516 100 964 100 1480 100 I Source: Etkin and Brun (unpublished). I 23 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards I Table 2.4 National Severe Storms Forecasting Centre mean path dimensions. F scale Length (km) Width (km) Area (km2) I 0 1.77 0.04 0.08 I 1 4.18 0.10 0.36 2 9.14 0.15 1.40 I 3 19.49 0.27 5.17 4 36.16 0.40 14.29 I Source: Grazulis et al. (1993). I

I

I I I I I

Figure 2.5: The spatial distribution of tornadoes 2.5 5.0 I in Canada (Etkin and Brun, unpubl.) Ontario Axis - C zs IU S.U ^ 7.5 I 24 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards

800

600 -

':■-à 400 -

1.)

.jà

200 H

0 1 2 3 4 .5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month Figure 2.6 IMonthly patterns of Source: Eticin and Brun (unpublished) Canadian tomadoes (1918 - 1992)

500

400 H

(r) 300 o -

200 -

100 -

0 MI__M__11111111 N. 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 2200 2400 Hour II ii Figure 2.7 Diurnal patterns of Canadian tornadoes (1918 - 1992) Source: Eticin and Brun (unpublished).

25 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards

rapidly forced upward. They are more 2.2.3 Hail I frequent where cold polar air comes in Hailstorms pose a significant threat to contact with warm moist air from the Gulf of Canada. Severe hailstorms can cause I Mexico. This is the main reason why eastern extensive losses to property and crops in Canada receives more thunderstorms and minutes. Though there have only been two tornadoes than western Canada. recorded fatalities in North America caused I by hail this century (Ahrens, 1994), these Normally, colliding air masses simply storms have caused widespread and heavy generate numerous thunderheads on the economic losses to crops, cars, homes and I leading edge of the cold front, with the livestock. For instance, the worst Canadian atmospheric energy dispersed among them. hailstorm - Calgary, Alberta on Sept. 7, Formation of thunderheads severe enough 1991 - caused $450 million in damages to spawn tornadoes is enhanced by the (Canadian National Report - IDNDR, 1994; presence of an inversion layer, which limits IBC, 1996). The most costly hailstorm in the number of thunderheads formed and thus the U.S., and possibly the world - in May I provides more energy to individual 1995 in Texas - caused an estimated $1.125 thunderstorms. This layer is usually located billion (US dollars) in damage. Charlton et t around 5000 ft. It acts initially to cap al. (1995), in a detailed study of urban hail convection. However, with daytime solar incidences, found that they were among heating, the air under the inversion layer Canada's most costly natural disasters. becomes warmer and thus more unstable. I Once it reaches a critical state, the warm air Damage swaths are typically between will punch through the inversion layer in 3-20 km wide and 50-150 km long (Paul, I isolated locations. This air, laden with 1991). Paul (1991) showed that a high moisture and extremely unstable, rises proportion of damage caused by hail was through the inversion layer and produces done by long-lived storms (at least 3h) with I very severe thunderstorms. long, narrow tracks. On average roughly three per cent of the prairie crops are wiped For a thunderhead to spawn a out by hail each year, mostly by severe I tornado, it must begin to rotate. Under storms on a relatively few number of days. normal atmospheric conditions, wind Like tornadoes, hailstorms have a relatively directions and magnitudes change with rapid speed of onset; however, since the I increasing height (vertical wind shear), and conditions under which they occur and their this process can, under certain life-cycle are relatively well understood circumstances, initiate thunderhead rotation. (Paul, 1991), unlike those for tornadoes, I Once this occurs, the conditions necessary to strategies (such as cloud seeding) have been spawn tornadoes exist. However, it must be developed to help reduce the hazards noted that even though these conditions involved. Various hail suppression I exist, it does not necessarily imply a tornado programs have been attempted in the past. will form. There are many other factors A Russian program claimed success, while I involved regarding the formation of other programs in the U.S., Switzerland, tornadoes which are, as of yet, unknown. Canada and South Africa were inconclusive (Cotton and Pielke, 1995), though some I recent research reported in a conference on

26 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards

'Hail Damage Mitigation and Science' level, there exists supercooled liquid water reported some significant hail reduction due which cannot readily freeze unless an object to cloud seeding (North Dakota Atmospheric (such as dust) is present to allow for Resource Board, 1996). As a result of condensation or deposition. These rising studies such as the one in North Dakota, the embryos allow the supercooled liquid to Canadian insurance industry began, in 1996, freeze. a hail suppression program in Alberta in order to reduce losses due to hailstorms. Therefore, as the embryo travels Press releases from the industry have upward, a ring of ice will freeze onto it. As indicated that the program is believed to be it continues upward, it passes into a region successful. where the updraft is weaker. The updraft can no longer support its weight and the Average hailstones range in size from hailstone falls back to the lower portions of small peas to golfballs. The largest hailstone the cloud. From there, it can take two paths. on record for Canada was 290 grams (0.6 Those that fall toward the aft end of the lbs), falling on Cedoux, Saskatchewan, in thunderhead usually fall into the downdraft August, 1973. In comparison, the largest and exit the cloud. Those that fall forward hailstone in the U.S. weighed in at 757 will return to the updraft in the base of the grams (1.67 lbs) (Ahrens, 1994). Hailstorms cloud. They then recirculate back to the generally occur in warm months, from late upper portions of the cloud via the stronger spring to early fall. Figure 2.8 gives the updraft. As they do, more liquid water average annual number of days with hail for freezes onto them, forming another layer of Canada for the period 1951-1980. The peak ice. occurs in western Canada, with more than five days per year — the reverse of the The size of hailstones depends on the situation for thunderstorms (see Figure 2.2). speed of the updraft, the height of the zero- Thirteen significant hailstorm events are degree isotherm, and the number of hailstone listed in Table 2.5. embryos. First, as the updraft provides the circulation mechanism, the stronger the Hailstone Formation updraft, the larger the hailstones. Second, Hailstones are generated only within the zero-degree isotherm's altitude cumulonimbus clouds. They form when determines the amount of freezing time. If it supercooled liquid from within the clouds is occurs at a lower altitude, then there is more repeatedly accreted onto precipitation time for water to freeze onto the surface of embryos, creating concentric rings of ice. the hailstones. Furthermore, since the The embryos can be large frozen raindrops, strength of the updraft decreases with height, dust or even insects. As they travel if the zero degree isotherm is too high, then upwards, they pass through layers of the there is less time for freezing to occur, and cloud with varying liquid water contents and the updraft is too weak to support the temperatures. Normally, the lower portions formation of large hailstones. Third, if there of cumulonimbus clouds are above freezing, are too many hailstones, they compete for and the higher portions, below freezing. As the existing supercooled liquid water. This the embryo travels upward, it passes through reduces the potential size of the hailstones, the zero-degree isotherm, usually located regardless of the strength of the updraft. midway throughout the cloud. Above this Accordingly, hail-suppression techniques

27 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards

I I

3 t

Figure 2.8 Number of days with hail (1951-1980) Source: Environment Canada (1987). I I I I I 28 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards I Table 2.5 Major Canadian hailstorms. I Location Date Damages ($) I Calgary 7 Sept., 1991 450 million Calgary 16 July, 1996 150 million I Winnipeg 16 July, 1996 105 million Calgary 28 July, 1981 100 million I Montreal 29 May, 1986 65 million Calgary 24 July, 1996 40 million i Windsor-Leamington, 30 May, 1985 30-40 million Ontario I Western prairies 23 July, 1971 20 million I Edmonton 4 Aug., 1969 17 million Cedoux, Sask. 27 Aug., 1973 10 million I Okanagan Valley 29 July, 1946 2 million Edmonton 10 July, 1901 extensive damage I Lambeth, Ont. 19 Aug., 1968 extensive crop and property damage Montreal 5 June, 1979 extensive property damage I Central Alberta 14 July, 1953 unknown I Source: Phillips, (1990). I I I I 29 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards seed clouds with hail embryos (e.g. Silver strikes on many types of physical Iodide) to induce production of more, hence infrastructure. smaller hailstones. Electrification of Clouds Hailstones are produced more Lightning, or any electrical discharge, frequently by convective thunderstorms than requires the existence of a charge separation by those associated with cold fronts (Smith, — a usual condition in cumulonimbus clouds. 1996). Cold fronts push warm air aloft, The base of the cloud is negatively charged; often producing a zero-degree isotherm at a the upper portions, positively. The most very high altitude. In convective storms, popular theory explains the separation as a however, which result from strong surface direct result of collisions between hailstones heating, the zero-d'egree isotherm is more and ice crystals within the clouds (Ahrens, often at an optimal altitude within the cloud. 1994). As hailstones collide with liquid water, the water freezes onto the hailstone. 2.2.4 Lightning This freezing releases energy and keeps the The major threat posed by lightning is its outer portion of the hailstone slightly warmer ability to initiate forest fires. It can also than the inner. Then, when a hailstone damage buildings, trees, physical comes in contact with a colder ice crystal, infrastructure, and power supplies. positive ions are transferred to the colder ice Approximately seven deaths per year in crystal, as energy is transferred from warmer Canada are caused by lightning strikes (Etkin objects to cooler ones. Thus, over time, the and Maarouf, 1995). Even though only 35 hailstones become negatively charged and % of Canada's wildfires are the result of the ice crystals become positively charged. lightning strikes, they account for 85 % of Similarly, larger liquid water drops will also the total area burned (Stocks, 1991). tend to develop negative charges. Lightning starts approximately 10,000 forest fires per year in the U.S. (Ahrens, 1994) Larger, heavier hailstones and water destroying thousands of acres of valuable droplets, with the negative charge, will sink resources and ecological habitats. In the towards the lower portions of the clouds; the worst documented major disaster caused by lighter ice crystals, with the positive charge, lightning, on the St. Lawrence River, a migrate to the upper portion of the cloud. freighter exploded, killing 30 crewmen The resulting charge separation explains (Canadian National Report - IDNDR, 1994). cloud-to-cloud (CC) lightning. Since the base of the cloud and the ground are both Lightning is an atmospheric electrical negatively charged, cloud-to-ground phenomena associated exclusively with lightning (CG lightning) requires a charge thunderstorms. The temporal and spatial separation, which emerges naturally as the distribution of lightning in Canada are given negative base of the cloud moves over the in Figure 2.9. A lightning flash climatology surface. The negative charges in the base of for the southern Great Lakes region the cloud repel those of the surface and force (Clodman and Chrisholm, 1994) shows the the positive surface charges to concentrate in greatest density along Ontario's tornado the highest surface objects (e.g. trees, utility axis. LaDochy and Annett (1983) produced poles,...,etc.). Charge separation results, a lightning climatology that reports effects of with lightning always striking the highest objects in an area.

30 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards I I I I I t I i t I

I I i I Figure 2.9 Lightning ground flash density (# flashes / sq. km'/ year). I Source: Janischewskyj and Chisholm, 1992. I t I 31 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards

2.2.5 Tropical Cyclones the amount of expected damage from each and Hurricanes category. Tropical cyclones are storms that originate in the world's tropical oceans Since Canada is in the mid-latitudes, (Smith, 1996). The most significant are far from sites where tropical cyclones initiate those that reach hurricane status, and (usually between 5 and 10 degrees north or they are probably one of the greatest south of the equator), its exposure to natural threats to humanity — they possess hurricanes is minimal. However, many awesome power, strike densely populated downgraded hurricanes (i.e. tropical storms and vulnerable coastal regions (e.g. or depressions) have struck the eastern Bangladesh), and are relatively frequent. seaboard causing damage to the Maritime The risk associated with them is steadily provinces. In rare instances (e.g. Hurricane increasing as large coastal cities continue to Hazel - 1954), hurricanes can reintensify develop (e.g. Miami). over land due to the influence of the jet stream, inundating inland regions with Though high wind speeds are hurricane-force storms. Figure 2.10 depicts associated with tropical cyclones, most of the vulnerable regions and common the damage results from coastal flooding hurricane paths of North and Central caused by intense rainfall and high storm America. surges (Ahrens, 1994). Even though hurricanes decay rapidly over land, they can Hurricane Movement and Developmental still trigger severe thunderstorms, which Stages often produce high winds, tornadoes and Atlantic hurricanes usually begin as a simple flash floods. Tropical cyclones, however, tropical disturbance, sometimes called develop relatively slowly and can be detected easterly waves, off the coast of western by satellite technology, and so there is Africa in the equatorial Atlantic (between 5 usually adequate warning for areas at risk. and 10 degrees north and south of the equator). At this stage, it does not have a The severity of tropical cyclones and well defined low pressure cell or hurricanes is classified on the Saffir—Simpson characteristic circulating pattern. It is in scale (see Table 2.6), which assess wind effect a mass of thunderstorms moving speed, height of the storm surge, and westward in the tropical oceans under the barometric pressure. A storm can be, in influence of the trade winds. Continuing ascending order of severity, a tropical westward, it may develop into a well defined disturbance (an unorganised mass of low pressure cell. As it does, under the thunderstorms); a tropical depression (a influence of the Coriolis force, it will begin large intense low pressure cell with to rotate counterclockwise in the northern thunderstorms); or a tropical storm (slightly hemisphere (opposite in the southern more organised than the simple depression). hemisphere). This rotation may cause the It becomes a hurricane once the wind speeds low pressure cell to intensify, creating a reach 64 lcnots (-120 kph), the storm surge steeper pressure gradient, which increases height reaches 1.5m and the central low the wind speeds. When the wind speeds pressure cell falls below 980 mb. There are reach 20 to 34 knots, it is called a tropical five classes of hurricanes. Table 2.6 gives depression.

32 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards I 1 Table 2.6 The Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane classification. I Pressure Wind Storm Stage (mb) (knots) surge (m) Type of damage

1 Tropical >20 disturbance I Tropical 20-34 depression i Tropical 3 5-64 storm

I Hurricane 1 >980 65-82 - 1.5 Damage to trees and unanchored mobile homes

I Hurricane 2 965-979 83-95 -2-2.5 Damage to roofs, some uprooted t trees Hurricane 3 945-964 96-113 -2.5-4 Large trees blown down, some I structural damage to small buildings Hurricane 4 220-944 114-135 -4-5.5 Extensive damage to roofs, windows, and doors; inland flooding as far as I 10 km Hurricane 5 <920 >135 >5.5 Extensive damage to buildings, small I buildings overturned and blown away; major damage to lower floors of all structures less than 4.5 m I less than 500 m from shore I Source: Ahrens (1994). I I I 33 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards t I 1

I I I I

------a- I Average Storm Tracks 0.1 to 0.9 per year I 1.0 to 2.9 per year 3.0 or more per year I Figure 2.10: Western hemisphere hurricane frequencies (Smith, 1996). I I I I I 34 1 t PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA t Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards As the storm moves westward, it moisture supply and hence its energy source. slowly comes under the influence of the If it moves into regions with cooler water I southern edges of the subtropical high- temperatures (e.g. the North Atlantic), there pressure belt. Since the pressure cells in this is no longer sufficient energy to sustain itself. region rotate clockwise (i.e. the opposite of In either case, the storm will begin to decay I low-pressure cells) in the northern rapidly into a mass of unorganised hemisphere, they will pull the storm out of thunderstorms. the tropics and into the lower mid-latitudes I (-300N). The storm begins to move 2.2.6 Mid-latitude Cyclones northward into the Caribbean. If the low- (Extra-Tropical Storms) pressure cell further intensifies and the wind Mid-latitude cyclones can be present over I speeds increase to between 35 and 64 knots, Canada at any time of the year, but they are it becomes a tropical storm. Further more severe in winter. These large-scale I reduction in pressure and increases in wind storms are responsible for a variety of severe speed result in hurricane status (see Table summer and winter weather. In winter, they 2.6). are the major cause of blizzards, freezing rain (i.e. glitter storms), and heavy snowfall. I Pushed northward by the subtropical During summer, they cause intense rainfall high-pressure cells, the storm enters the mid- activity over widespread areas, spawn I latitudes (between 30 and 60°N). There, the tornado families and produce numerous mid-latitude westerly winds move the storm hailstorms. back, eastward, into the Atlantic, resulting in I the characteristic U-shaped path of Atlantic The life-cycle of an extra-tropical hurricanes (see Figure 2.10). cyclone is shown in Figure 2.11. Initially, two air masses form a stationary front 1 Conditions Necessaryfor Hurricane between them (see Figure 2.1 la). If a Development and Longevity disturbance forms along the stationary front, Tropical storms derive their energy from the the warm air east of the disturbance begins I tropical oceans. As water evaporates from to advance northward, and the cold air west the ocean surface and is pulled into the of it, southward. This counterclockwise storms, it rises, cools, and condenses to form motion produces a low pressure cell along I clouds. Condensation releases energy and the frontal boundary (see Figure 2.1 lb). The fuels the storms. For tropical cyclones to northward-advancing, warm air on the east emerge, which requires extraordinary side of the low forms a warm front; the I amounts of energy, temperatures at the southward-heading, cold air on the west side ocean's surface must exceed 26°C (Ahrens, forms a cold front (see Figure 2.11c). This is I 1994) - one of the reasons why they only the mature stage of development. Since cold form near the equator. Unlike tornadoes and fronts move faster than warm fronts, the cold severe thunderstorms, hurricanes cannot front on the west side swings around and t form in the presence of strong vertical wind catches up to the eastward, warm front (see shears as this will shear off the top of the Figure 2.11 d& e). An occluded front forms storm. when the cold front overtakes the warm t front and lifts the warm air aloft. Eventually, Moisture is crucial for hurricanes. the entire system occludes, and the low I When a hurricane reaches land, it loses its t 35

se

A) Stationary front B) Low-pressure cell C) Mid-latitude cyclone *.e

Cold, >■. cP cP (dry(d p olar ai r) t , i ■ Precipitation '»Z1 - , . Cold , , , Cold Warm ---•çr-1*----- \ ./ .h V-'-.4.L.-7p,.-./aL_v v 111--77---"'" . • GO ( ill Warm 4, , , ••1 / mT / mT / (moist tropical air) ' et* Warm sector

D) Mature stage E) Occluded front F) Dissipation _ __ _ , - , Cold ,- - - - . / le . I I , 4 ■ ■ , -. \ ‘, 1 .r 11 ■ ■ y 4 1 4

l " Cold 1 I % 4 1 \ I 1 I I 4 4 1 % Warm % I › I 4 I 1 4 / • ■ \ I . Warm

Figure 2.11 Development of a mid-latitude cyclone.

UM SIM 1111111 Rill MI OM 11111111 BOO MIR NM MI Ma • UM I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards pressure cell breaks away from the front (see major threat is posed by thunderstorm Figure 2.l lf). At this stage, the low is called activity. If these thunderstorms are severe I a cold low. enough, they can produce multiple hailstorms and families of tornadoes Storms that affect Canada usually dispersed over large areas. I follow one of five patterns of genesis and movement: they may originate 2.2. 7 Severe Winter Storms 1. off the Pacific coast and move eastward Severe winter storms may involve a number through the lower Canadian prairies of potentially threatening events, including towards the Great Lakes; snow squalls and blizzards, freezing rain, 2. east of the Colorado Rockies and move severe cold snaps and heavy snowfall I north-eastward through Ontario, (Stewart et al., 1995). Canada's northern Quebec and Newfoundland; location greatly increases exposure to these 3. to the east of the Canadian Rockies and cold-weather events. I then pass eastward through the prairies to the Great Lakes; The most common cause of severe I 4. over the Arctic regions and move south- winter weather in Canada is the extra- east, through the Northwest Territories, tropical cyclone (see Section 2.2.6), which Manitoba, Ontario and Quebec; or can produce t 5. off the southern U.S. Atlantic coast and 1. heavy snowfall and blowing snow (i.e. move north-eastward along the coast to blizzards); the maritime provinces. 2. freezing rain; I 3. severe cold snaps; and The various types of severe summer 4. severe Atlantic and Pacific coastal or winter weather are a direct result of storms (Stewart et al., 1995). I conditions associated with each portion of a Furthermore, the extra-tropical cyclone and mature, mid-latitude cyclone (see Figure its associated weather conditions usually 2.12). In winter, the strong winds and cold affect large areas, occur relatively frequently, I air behind a cold front can produce severe and can cause considerable property damage wind-chill. Blowing snow and high wind- and large death tolls. For instance, in March chill factors are the main ingredients for of 1993, a mid-latitude cyclone migrated up I blizzard conditions. Heavy precipitation the east coast of the U.S. and Canada, over widespread areas, in the form of snow, producing a severe blizzard and killing more sleet and/or freezing rain, is found along and than 240 people - three times as many I north of the warm front to the east of the victims as hurricane Hugo and Andrew low-pressure cell. These storms usually combined. At one point during the storm move relatively slowly, often depositing over 3 million people were left without I large amounts of precipitation in their wake. electricity because of high wind speeds and falling trees (Smith, 1996). I In summer, flooding is a major threat. These storms produce both widespread, Coastal Storms heavy precipitation ahead of the warm front Intense weather systems (e.g. extra-tropical t and intense, localised rainfall (from cyclones) frequently affect the Great Lakes thunderstorm activity) in front of and on the and the Atlantic and Pacific coasts of I leading edge of the cold front. Another Canada. Though these storms are associated 37 1 Ch It

a › pt xi er )-i

2: h)

At z

mos › 1-3 ph , , - , , 1 , 1 \ / , eric e Heat,. / , \ ri SI.lowfau • 1 . % Heavy continuous ` \ , ■ H \ , % rainfall . yd Ne

rol ›

o g gi cA c

I and 1 i n Geo z›

ph › tr.) e 00 ysi › c al H a zard s

Winter Summer

Figure 2.12 Winter and summer severe weather associated with mid-latitude cyclones.

MI 11111•11 MI MI Mall MI MN Mal MIIII MI MI MIIIII MI • BIM Ma Mil 1111111 OM I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards with heavy rainfall, most of the damage duration in excess of 4 hours, and results when high waves impact shorelines or temperatures under -12°C (Etkin and I come in contact with marine infrastructure Maarouf, 1995; Stewart et al., 1995). At (oil rigs, sea vessels,...,etc.). On a global least one or two people and much livestock scale, coastal waves and storm surges are the perishes from exposure to blizzards each I most severe marine hazard. They have year (Stewart et al., 1995). Table 2.7 is a list caused extensive damage to property and of the 16 most severe Canadian blizzards loss of life. For example, on March 15, between 1904 and 1986. To achieve an I 1993, a powerful extra-tropical cyclone understanding of the frequency of these produced waves in excess of 30 m and sank events, blizzards can be characterised by the the Gold Bond Conveyor off the coast of number of days with blowing snow and the I Nova Scotia, killing 33 crew (Canadian annual depth of snowfall. Figure 2.13 shows National Report - IDNDR, 1994). the average annual number of days in Canada with blowing snow. The Arctic has the most I High storm waves have caused days with blowing snow. The maximum in extensive coastal erosion, leading to the western Canada occurs in the southern collapse of numerous buildings and Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The eastern I structures. The height of the waves depends shore of Lake Huron receives the highest on the strength of the wind, the incidence in eastern Canada, mainly because I configuration of the shoreline, coastal of lake effect snow from the Great Lakes topography, tidal activities and the fetch (see below). The maximum average annual length of the coastal sea. For instance, high snowfall (Figure 2.14) occurs in the Rocky I winds from a severe coastal storm system and Coastal Mountain ranges. Peaks in can cause a build-up of waves. The length of eastern Canada occur along an axis open water (i.e. the fetch length) over which extending from north of the Great Lakes to I the sustained winds act helps determine the the coast of Newfoundland. initial wave heights (i. e. the greater the length, the higher the waves). When these Freezing Rain I waves hit land, the coastal configuration and One of the most ominous winter weather topography (e.g. mountain ranges on the types is freezing rain, which affects nearly all west coast or coastal inlets with steep cliffs of Canada (Etkin and Maarouf, 1995). In I on the east coast) can increase wind speeds extreme cases it is quite capable of causing and wave heights by channelling wind and severe damage, especially to power waves inland. A significant hazard is transmission lines, telecommunications I produced if coastal waves and storm surges infrastructure, buildings, and trees, as well as occur in conjunction with high tides. massive traffic disruptions. These events can wreak havoc over large areas and last for I Blizzards several days. As an example, Table 2.8 lists Blizzards occur across all of Canada, but five major freezing rain events in Canada. I they are more common in the prairie regions Figure 2.15 presents the spatial distribution (Stewart et al., 1995). Blizzards are defined of the average number of days with freezing as any winter storm systems with wind precipitation. The largest incidences occur I speeds in excess of 40 kph, a wind-chill east of the Great Lakes and in the Maritimes. greater than 1600 Wm 2, visibility of less I than 1 km in snow or blowing snow, 39 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards

Table 2.7 Major Canadian blizzards. Location Date Duration Conditions Regina 30 Jan 1947 10 days 8 m high snow drifts Regina 6 Feb., 1978 4 days Winnipeg 4 Mar 1966 2 days 35 cm of snow and 120 kph winds Montreal 4 Mar., 1971 2-7 days 47 cm snow and 110 kph winds Prince Edward Island 22 Feb., 1982 5 days 60 cm of snow, and 80 kph winds London, Ont. 9 Dec., 1977 3 days 100 cm of snow

Southern prairies 15 Dec', 1964 -34°C, 90 kph winds, and 3 fatalities. Called the "The Great Blizzard" Newfoundland 16 Feb., 1959 5 m drifts and 70,000 people without power Toronto 11 Dec., 1944 2 days 57 cm of snow Southern prairies 24 mar., 1904 3 days 30 cm of snow and 100 kph winds Southwestern BC 4 Dec., 1980 20-30 cm of snow. Record low temps. Iqaluit, NWT 8 Feb., 1979 10 days 100 kph winds and -40°C temperatures Southern Alberta 14 May, 1986 2 days Knee-deep snow and 80 kph winds Montreal 7 Nov., 1969 60 hours 70 cm of snow and 15 fatalities Manitoba 7 Nov., 1986 30 cm of snow and 90 kph winds Ottawa 7 Dec., 1983 30 cm of snow and 48 kph winds Source: Phillips (1990).

40 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA t Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards I I 30

I 90 I 30 I I I I t I

1 5 I 30 20 5

I Figure 2.13 Number of days with blowing snow from 1951-1980 t (Environment Canada, 1987). 10

I I 41 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards I I I I I I I I I t

600--ij^U^^ ^^ \\\\\ ( \ I V / / \ / / 300 n I J .°°JA200 200 t t

Figure 2.14: Average annual snowfall (cm) t from 1951-1980 (Environment Canada, 1987). 100, I t I I 42 I I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards I I I I Table 2.8 Significant freezing rain events. Date Location Conditions

Mar. 1953 St. Johns, Nova 43 hours of continuous freezing rain I Scotia 25 Feb., 1961 Montreal Ice storm heavily loaded utility wires, causing them to I snap. Some areas were without electricity for a week. Jan. 1968 Southern Ontario 3 days of on-and-off freezing rain and wet snow I caused widespread power failures, closed schools, cancelled food deliveries, disrupted mail and fire services, collapsed buildings and antennae, isolated I hospitals, and blocked highways 11 April, 1984 St. Johns, Nova 200,000 residents were left without power after an ice I Scotia storm blanketed transmission lines with 15 cm of ice, causing them to snap

24 Dec., 1986 Ottawa 14 hours of freezing rain left one in four homes I without electricity I Source: Phillips (1990). I I I I I 43 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards

Figure 2.15 Hypothetical curve for wind damage. Source: Davenport (1994).

44 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards Physical Processes of Sleet and Freezing temperatures reached depend specifically on Rain the nature of the cold air mass and where it I The formation of sleet and freezing rain is a originated. In general, those from the Arctic result of frozen precipitation falling through regions are the coldest. Though cold an irregular vertical temperature profile. temperatures are dangerous in their own I Normally, the air through which snow falls in right, they become more so in conjunction winter is warmer - though still below with strong winds (Etkin and Maarouf, freezing - closer to the ground, and hence 1995). The combination produces a wind- I snowflakes remain frozen. Occasionally, chill factor - heat loss measured in Watts instead of this characteristic temperature per metre squared (Wm 2). A wind-chill profile, a layer of warm temperatures hovers, factor of 1400 Wm'2 is equivalent to a I on the order of 100's of metres, above the temperature of-180C. At 2700 Wm"2, surface (i.e. an inversion layer). In winter, exposed flesh freezes within a half minute. inversion layers are common just ahead of I warm fronts and over large cities, though the Exposure to extreme cold claims main cause of freezing rain is due to more lives, directly, in Canada than any other inversion layers associated with warm fronts. atmospheric extreme (Etkin and Maarouf, I Cold air trapped in valleys as warmer air 1995) though indirect deaths, for example, advances into a region can also contribute to due to weather related car accidents and air I this phenomenon. In cases where this pollution are much larger. Prolonged inversion layer is present, as snow falls exposure causes numerous injuries to people towards the surface, it will pass through a and animals, including hypothermia and I layer of warmer air. Depending on the frostbite. Sub-zero temperatures lead to thickness of this layer, snowflakes falling many other problems, including frozen water through it will melt either partially or pipes and the disruption of transportation t completely. When they pass into the lower, and businesses. Table 2.9 lists some colder layer, they may completely refreeze or significant extreme cold events for Canada. remain as supercooled liquid drops. If they I refreeze, the original snow flakes are Lake-Effect Snows transformed into solid pellets of ice, normally Lake-effect snows are frequent events in any called ice pellets in Canada or sleet in the part of Canada situated near large bodies of I US. If they become supercooled liquid water such as the Great Lakes, the Gulf of drops, they produce freezing rain. The drops St. Lawrence, the Arctic Ocean, and the freeze instantaneously onto surface objects, Manitoba lakes. These local weather I forming a thin coating of ice. In extreme systems can account for much of the annual events, tonnes of ice may form on a single snowfall in these regions (Stewart et al., tree or power transmission lines, causing 1995). I extensive damage. Lake-effect snows are produced as I Severe Cold Snaps cold air passes over relatively warmer water. Extreme cold temperatures are associated The temperature difference between the air with continental Arctic air masses. All and the water, which can be as great as I regions in Canada have experienced 25°C, profoundly affects the severity of the temperatures below -40°C, except for Prince storm. Lake-effect snows are most common I Edward Island (Phillips, 1990). The actual in late autumn and early winter, when the 45 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards I I

j I

Table 2.9 Significant Canadian extreme cold events. I Location Date Conditions Snag, Yukon 3 Feb., 1947 Lowest recorded Canadian temperature, -63°C I Winnipeg 24 Jan. 1966 Longest skin-freezing windchill (170 hours)

Edmonton 7 Jan. - 2 Feb., Temperatures below -18°C for 26 days I 1969

Pelly Bay, 13 Jan., 1975 Coldest recorded windchill (equivalent to -97°C) t NWT Saskatoon 28 Dec., 1978 Longest windchill event (215 hours) I Most of Canada Jan. 1982 Coldest winter month on record, most provinces below - 40°C

British 30 Jan., 1989 Freezing caused $2.5 million in damage Columbia I Source: Etkin and Maarouf (1995). I I I t t I 46 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards temperature difference is greatest. Extensive reach the Earth's atmosphere. Within the cumulus clouds form as cold air passes over Sun, extremely high temperatures cause warmer water, and the warm, moist air violent collisions between gases, stripping overlying the water rises through the cold them of electrons. The ionised gases and air. electrons then rapidly make their way to the surface of the Sun. The Sun's magnetic To form cumulus clouds large energy is capable of containing most of them, enough to produce heavy snowfall, the cold allowing only relatively few to fly out into air must pass over at least 80 km of open space. This stream of high energy protons water, which requires a large body of water. and electrons, called plasma or solar wind, When these clouds move onshore, they travels through space and may come in produce heavy snowfall over localised contact with the Earth (Bone, 1991; Ahrens, regions (usually less than 50 km inland) to 1994). the lee of the lakes. These storms are so localised that one portion of a city may be A magnetic shield, called the inundated by 20-30 centimetres of snow per magnetosphere, protects the Earth's surface day, while other parts may receive none at all and its inhabitants from this constant (Ahrens, 1994). bombardment. The magnetosphere, hypothesised to be the result of the Earth's 2.2.8 Geomagnetic Storms iron core, deflects the solar wind around the Geomagnetic storms are probably one of Earth, forming the equivalent of an electrical the least-known atmospheric hazards. generator. It deflects solar protons to the They have wreaked considerable havoc in dawn side of the Earth, and solar electrons, the high northern mid-latitudes. For to the dusk side (Lerner, 1995). Some of instance, on the morning of March 13 1989, these particles are, however, caught in the a powerful geomagnetic storm occurred magnetosphere and funnelled into the upper causing a major power failure from no rthern atmosphere at the magnetic north and south The storm tripped a Quebec to Montreal. poles. There, gases in the atmosphere voltage regulator and shut down one of the provide a ring circuit for the solar wind. The main lines stemming from the La Grande solar particles flow into the upper hydroelectric complex in northern Quebec. atmosphere and westward around the planet During the next 60 seconds, voltage levels to the opposite side, where they are flung became increasingly erratic within the grid. back into outer space. As these high energy Within 90 seconds, the entire 9,500 particles flow around the upper atmosphere, Megawatt power complex was isolated from however, they collide with and transfer the rest of the system. In all, this storm cost energy to the gases there. This causes the Hydro Quebec $10 million and its customers gases to glow, producing the aurora borealis between $10 and $100 million (Lerner, and aurora australis (Bone, 1991). 1995). This same storm was responsible for the failure of three 'fault-tolerant' disc drives Under normal circumstances, these at the Toronto Stock Exchange, halting interactions are minor and can only be seen trading for three hours (Dayton, 1989). in the high latitudes, near the magnetic poles. However, dramatic solar flares, which occur Geomagnetic storms result as high during intense sunspot activity, cause energy particles emanating from the Sun massive pulses of high-energy plasma to be

47 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards ejected into space. When these strike the In 1994, a $250 million Canadian Earth, far more electrons and protons are communications satellite went off line for funnelled into the magnetic poles than can be nearly six-months (Lerner, 1995). handled by the gaseous circuit. A surge of energy builds up in the atmosphere and 2.2.9 Windstorms pushes the aurora towards the mid-latitudes. Cumulatively, strong wind events cause I During sunspot episodes, which have an the most insurance losses in Canada eleven-year cycle, the aurora borealis has (Davenport, 1994) and can be caused by been sighted as far south as the U.S. state of tornadoes, tropical cyclones, extra-tropical 1 Georgia (Bone, 1991). cyclones, downburst and microbursts, gust fronts of thunderstorms, and general Geomagnetic storms take place atmospheric turbulence. Wind itself occurs 1 during times of intense solar flare activity. on a variety of scales and is a function of The high-energy particles racing around the numerous factors, including atmospheric upper atmosphere, trying to complete the t stability, topography and surface roughness circuit and return to outer space, are too (Etkin and Maarouf, 1995). Wind can numerous for the natural atmospheric circuit directly exert powerful pressures on I to handle. Excess particles move down into structures in its path and can produce many the lower atmosphere, towards the Earth's other hazardous events such as storm surges surface, in order to build a circuit. In areas and waves, flying debris during tornadic I where the ground is not a good conductor events, falling trees, wind-driven rain, sleet (e.g. the Canadian Shield), they seek out and hail, ice jams along coasts, and drifting other possibilities. Prime targets are north- icebergs (Davenport, 1988). Wheaton I south-oriented power transmission lines. (1992) described dust storms, which are Even high-tension power lines cannot handle wind related, as a significant hazard common this amount of energy - -500,000 during summer and winter drought periods. Megawatts (Lerner, 1995) - hence, power surges and eventual power failure can ensue. Prevention of damage from wind- related events requires proper building t Influence of Geomagnetic Storms on Human design and thorough enforcement of building Infrastructure codes (Yip et al., 1995). The majority of the Geomagnetic storms can also produce insurance losses stem from structural damage I satellite drag, disruption of ground and caused, either directly or indirectly, by the satellite communication, ship navigation force of the wind (Davenport, 1994). Figure systems, and failure of orbiting satellites 2.16 shows a hypothetical curve between I (Bone, 1991). Satellite drag results from the wind speed and the loss or damage quotient thickening of the Earth's atmosphere (Davenport, 1994); as wind speed increases I following the heating caused by increased linearly, resulting damage increases at a numbers of high energy particles. Artificial faster rate until - at a maximum, structure satellites may decay out of orbit earlier than specific, wind speed - total destruction I expected (e.g. SkyLab, July 1979). The follows. electrical signature of the high energy plasma can also cause orbiting satellites to execute The National Building Code of I phantom commands, causing major Canada (NBCC) for 1990 uses the 10-year, malfunctions of on-board computer systems. 30-year and 100-year return-period wind I 48 1 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards I I I I

I Figure 2.16 The 50-year return period wind speeds Source: Enviromnent Canada (1988). I 100 I I I I 49 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards pressures. The highest 50-year return period all environmental hazards, claiming over winds (140 kph) are located along the coast 20,000 lives and affecting 75 million people of British Columbia and in the eastern annually. Long-term droughts, on the order provinces and result from low surface of years, can significantly degrade the roughness (low friction) associated with environment, and lead to malnutrition and water surfaces (Etldn and Maarouf, 1995). starvation on a large scale. Each year, Furthermore, the high eastern maximum also famine kills an average of roughly 200,000 results from higher incidences of tropical and people and affects 1 billion world-wide. extra-tropical cyclones (Eticin and Maarouf, Furthermore, no country in the world is 1995). The peak speeds for the Great Lakes immune to either of these hazards (Smith, region are between 90-100 kph. 1996).

Processes of Windstorm Damage 2.3.1 Drought It is the pressure exerted by wind which Droughts are a major Canadian hazard; causes the damage, not the wind speed itself they can affect areas in excess of 1 million (Insurance Institute, 1994). There are three km2 and last weeks, months, or years types of wind pressure: positive, negative (Newark, 1982). Around the world they and internal. As Figure 2.17a shows, cause many deaths, but their impact on positive pressure sets up a dynamic force Canada is mainly economic by comparison. that acts to push over an object. However, Droughts principally affect agriculture, as air rushes past the object, it produces where losses to crops and livestock have negative pressure on the leeward side. This reached billions of dollars (see Table 2.10). negative pressure then acts on the leeward The drought of 1988 caused an estimated side to pull over an object. The two $1.8 billion in damage (1981 dollars). pressures work in tandem. If a structure Droughts have also caused extensive loses a door or window, the interior pressure environmental problems through increased is dramatically altered (see Figure 2.17b,c,d). degradation and erosion of soil, destruction Figure 2.17b shows how an opening on the of ecological habitats, and deterioration of windward side can increase the internal lakes (Maybank, et al., 1995). In the past pressure and the chance of roof lift-off. 200 years, 40 severe droughts have occurred Figure 2.17e illustrates how suction forces in western Canada; the 1930's and 1980's are generated by an opening on the leeward were especially bad (Koshida, 1992). The side. If two or more windows are open on worst recorded drought in Canada was the opposite sides, then the windward and drought of 1988 which caused extensive leeward pressure are equalised and the damage to agriculture, wildlife, water internal pressure is not altered (see Figure resources, forestry and other economic 2.17d). sectors of western Canada (Wheaton, 1992; Lawford, 1992; Wheaton et al., 1992; Wheaton and Arthur, 1992; Maybank et al., 2.3 Hydrologic Hazards 1995).

Hydrologic hazards are severe events Droughts are caused by anomalous caused by an excess or a lack of water: weather patterns (Koshida, 1992) when flooding and drought, respectively. On a shifts in the jet stream block storm systems global scale, flooding is the most common of

50 Me NM Mill MI MI 1111. 1111111 11111111 MI MI Sal MN MU NM IBM MN

- ? 1 - i - t t -t ± .... -->

---> -÷ ..

± Ch a -÷. pt er

A) Sealed building B) Windward opening 2: At mos (.11 ph

1 _t — i — i eri c — — ---t. ---. , H — — yd

+ + rol o __> ---. gi + — c __.>. 0 ■ and ■ ... Geo + ...

> physi ci)

C) Leeward opening D) Two or more openings cal H a zard

Figure 2.17 Differences in internal building pressure as a result of blowing wind. s PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards I I

1,

'I

I . Table 2.10 Recent Canadian droughts.

Date Location I 1973 Ontario I 1977 Southern Alberta and western Saskatchewan 1978 Ontario t 1979-80 Prairies, $2.5 billion in losses 1983 Southern Ontario and Quebec 1984-85 Southern prairies and Nova Scotia I 1985 British Columbia, one of the worst fire seasons 1987 British Columbia, winter drought in Atlantic provinces 1988 Extensive drought across the prairies, Ontario, and Quebec, I worst drought in interior Bristish Columbia

Source: Phillips (1990); Koshida (1992); Etkin and Maarouf (1995). t I I I I I I 52 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards

I from reaching an area. As a result, large, replenishment. If the soil moisture levels fall stationary high-pressure cells may dominate below the wilting point, which is plant I a region for prolonged periods, reducing specific, the vegetation cover begins to die. precipitation and increasing temperatures. Cereal drought can kill annual agricultural Higher temperatures cause evaporation rates crops, such as wheat; forage drought affects I to increase and moisture to be drawn out of livestock pastures and rangelands (Koshida, soil, lakes and rivers. During prolonged 1992). These two types of agricultural droughts, moisture in the soil and levels of drought need not be simultaneous. I lakes, ground water, and rivers decline - sometimes sufficiently to harm crop and Droughts are more frequent in the livestock production, forestry, ecological prairies (Koshida, 1992) and are caused by I habitats, and water resources, with spin-off variable or highly seasonal precipitation effects on other parts of the economy and the (Maybank et al., 1995). Annual precipitation environment. in these semi-arid and sub-humid regions is I naturally limited (usually between 290 mm to There are three different definitions 470 mm), and, therefore, even short periods of droughts - meteorologic, hydrologic, and of below-normal precipitation can initiate a i agriculture - all fundamentally controlled by drought. The most drought prone region in lack of precipitation. The meteorological Canada, the Palliser Triangle - the southern drought - lack of precipitation over portions of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and I prolonged periods - is the most common and Manitoba - has had major multi-year occurs when precipitation amounts are 50 droughts in the 1890's, 1930's, and 1980's. per cent or more below normal for at least In contrast, though all areas in Canada can I 30 days. This lack of precipitation ultimately experience drought, most other parts of the determines the degree of moisture shortage country receive more than 600 mm of annual I for the other two types of drought (Koshida, rainfall (Canadian National Report - IDNDR, 1992). 1994). Therefore, droughts that may occur outside of the prairies are usually brief, I Hydrologic droughts occur when the spatially limited and less frequent (Koshida, hydrological cycle of a region is disrupted, 1992). because of a prolonged lack of precipitation I or excess water mining. The usual cause is a The end of a drought is not easily combination of high temperatures and defined (Koshida, 1992). A few days with prolonged, below-normal precipitation. precipitation is not sufficient to terminate a When evaporation exceeds precipitation, severe drought. To bring the levels of soil levels of ground water and lakes and river moisture, ground water, lakes and rivers discharges eventually decline (Koshida, back to normal, prolonged, above-average 1992). precipitation is necessary. Environmental and socio-economic sectors hurt by the Agricultural droughts occur when drought may take longer to recover. there is not enough soil moisture for crop and livestock production. During lengthy periods of below-normal precipitation and high temperatures, evaporation draws more moisture out of the soil, with little

53 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards I 2.3.2 Floods surrounding areas. The characteristics of the Floods are one of the most significant drainage basin also contributes to the hazard natural hazards for Canada; they are (Lawford et al., 1995). Flooding is usually I frequent, have relatively rapid speeds of caused by intense localised rainfall, onset, can affect large areas, and can prolonged rainfall on saturated surfaces, ice cause extensive losses to property and life. jams, snowmelt, or any combination of these. I The worst flood disaster in world history occurred in August, 1931 along the Huang A drainage basin's size, shape, He River in China and killed an estimated 3.7 topography, vegetation cover and degree of I million people. The world's death toll from development may determine whether a basin floods between 1966 and 1990 was 117,000 will flood or not. For instance, heavy rain - an average of 4,680 persons per year may not cause flooding in a natural area as I (Lawford, et al., 1995). infiltration, vegetation or gentle slope gradients may reduce the amount of runoff The worst Canadian flood occurred and keep it from reaching the drainage in the summer of 1996 (see Table 2.11). The channel. However, this same event may Saguenay River valley in Quebec received cause extensive flooding in urban areas I roughly 290 mm of rainfall in approximately because of the large areas of impenetrable 36 hours. Though few people died, more surfaces (e.g. pavement, roofs and heavily than $1 billion in damages resulted. In compacted soils). Impermeable surfaces I October, 1954, hurricane Hazel struck the render urban areas highly vulnerable to Toronto region, causing extensive flooding, flooding (Lawford et al., 1995), by 79 deaths, and $133.3 million in damages promoting rapid rates of runoff that result in i (Andrews, 1993). large quantities of water inundating urban drainage networks (e.g. sewer and canals). Although the economic and social Many cities, whether they are located in river I impacts of floods can be quite staggering, far valleys or not, are thus prone to flooding more money is spent on flood prevention. (e.g. by sewer back-up or runoff), especially For instance, roughly $600 million per year is if their drainage systems are inadequate. I expended on construction of drainage systems in the Toronto area. Extrapolating It is difficult to provide a spatial this figure across Canada, this suggests representation of flood-prone areas in I nearly-$3-5 billion per year is spent on storm Canada due to the numerous causes of sewers and other drainage networks flooding. The most susceptible regions (Canadian National Report - IDNDR, 1994; include all of southern Ontario and Quebec, I Hogg, 1994; Etkin and Maarouf, 1995). the southern half of British Columbia, Because of the economic losses caused by isolated regions of southern Saskatchewan I flooding and the cost of prevention, flooding and Manitoba and most of the Maritimes. is considered a significant hazard in Canada (Lawford et al., 1995). The main causes of flooding in I Canada are spring ice jams and snowmelt, Floods result when natural drainage and heavy summer rainfall (Lawford et al., channels, or human-made facsimiles, cannot 1995; Etkin and Maarouf, 1995; Hogg, I convey all the water supplied to them; excess 1994; Phillips, 1990). Flooding in Canada water spills over the banks and inundates the peaks in April and is at a minimum in I 54 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA 1 Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards

Table 2.11: Significant Canadian floods. Date Location Conditions

1798 Montreal and Trois-Rivieres, Described as "worst in living memory" Quebec

1826 Red River, Manitoba Flood waters crested to 12 m above normal

1865 Sorel and Trois Rivieres, St. Lawrence rose 3-4 m, 45 fatalities Quebec

1883 London, Ontario Wall of water on the Thames River, 18 fatalities

1928 Rideau, Chaudiere and Quyon Several fatalities Rivers, Que

1937 London, Ontario 4000 people left homeless

1948 Fraser River, BC Worst flood on record, 9000 people left homeless

1950 Red River, Manitoba Flood waters crested to 10 m above normal, 100,000 people evacuated

1954 Etobicoke Creek and Toronto, Hurricane Hazel caused extensive flooding, 79 fatalities, and Ontario $133.3 million in damage

1973 Saint John River, New $12 million in damage Brunswick

1974 Grand River and Cambridge, $7 million in damage Ontario

1974 Prairies Extensive flooding

1979 Red River, Manitoba Flood waters rose higher than 12 m above normal

1979 Dawson, Yukon 80% of town flooded by Yukon River

1980 Squamish River, BC $13 million in damage

1986 North Saskatchewan River, Flood waters crested to 7.6 m above normal, 900 people Edmonton evacuated

1987 Montreal Flash flood: >100 mm of rain in one hour, $40 million in damage

1989 Essex County, Ontario 450 mm of rain fell in 30 hours in Harrow, Ontario

1993 Parts of US and Canadian Extensive damage; $175 million in Winnipeg Midwest

1996 Saguenay River, Quebec 290 mm of rain fell in two days, $1 billion in damage Sources: Phillips (1990); Andrews (1993); Lawford et al. (1995); Etkin and Maarouf (1995).

55 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards

September. During winter and early spring, melting or insufficient winter freezing. If I winter precipitation causes floods on the enough water is supplied to the river (e.g. west coast. In May, delayed snowmelt and from snowmelt or rainfall), pressure exerted I ice jams lead to flooding in the north. from underneath may be sufficient to break Between May and September, the major the ice cover. If so, the ice pack then flows cause of frequent flooding is heavy, downstream - a common event along many t convective rainfall (Lawford et al., 1995). In Canadian waterways. June, flooding can occur in mountainous regions as a result of high mountain snow These chunks of ice may then I and glacier melt. Other minor forms of become lodged where the flow is constricted, flooding are due to wind driven waves and obstructed or slowed. They may converge at storm surges along the coastal regions of channel bends and bridge piers, where rivers I Canada, especially the Maritimes (Phillips, bifurcate around islands, or become more 1990). shallow and have gentle gradients. When significant amounts of ice build-up, they may I Rainstorm Floods block the flow of water. As water collects in Rainstorm floods are controlled by the the newly formed reservoir behind the jam, nature of the rain event and the areas upstream may begin to flood. If the I characteristics of the land on which it falls. icejam breaks under the pressure of the Intense, localised thunderstorms can produce upstream water, large volumes of water may major flooding in small catchments and inundate downstream locations (Lawford et LI minor flooding in urban areas. Rainstorm al., 1995). floods can be caused by larger, mesoscale thunderstorm complexes, which can inundate Snowmelt Floods medium-sized areas, small to medium sized Though snowmelt causes most spring waterways and most urban environments flooding in Canada, its very gradualness I with vast quantities of water. The most means that it results in few large floods. damaging events come form the large-scale However, in northern and mountainous frontal cyclones, or mid-latitude cyclones, regions with heavy winter snowfall, snow i which can easily cause flooding in Canada's melt combined with abnormally high major waterways. temperatures, or when snow melt is combined with major rainfall, serious hazards I Icejam Floods can develop. Snow melt also supplies much The magnitude of ice jam floods are partly a of the water that produces many ice-jam function of the discharge flowing through a floods (Lawford et al., 1995). I river and the size of the ice jam obstruction. The location of these floods is controlled by the morphology of the waterway; the shape 2.4 Geophysical Hazards I of the river controls the location of the build- up of ice pack. Ice jams occur during freeze- Geophysical hazards include up of rivers in winter or the break-up of earthquakes, tsunamis, mass movements and I winter ice cover in early spring. During the volcanic eruptions. Though mass cold months, a layer of ice develops on river movements are frequent, they do not pose as I surfaces, leaving water to flow beneath. This significant a threat as other geophysical ice cover can be thin, because of spring I 56 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards hazards. Although no major earthquakes, Though seismic activity occurs all tsunamis and volcanic eruptions have over Canada, Vancouver and Montreal have occurred recently in Canada, their the highest risk. Low- to moderate- potential threat is quite significant. magnitude earthquakes have occurred in these regions, and a high-magnitude one is 2.4.1 Earthquakes and Tsunamis expected. These regions are also heavily Globally, significant earthquake activity is populated urban centres. Vancouver Island Icnown to occur in 35 countries and is has had more than 100 magnitude-5 or responsible for staggering losses of life and greater earthquakes in the past 70 years property. The worst earthquake in history (Basham et al., 1995). East of the Canadian killed 800,000 people in Shensi, China in Cordillera, the risk of seismic activity is 1556 (Smith, 1996). Earthquakes in urban substantially lower. However, there are a areas can be even more lethal, often because few "hot spots", such as the St. Lawrence of fires caused by ruptured gas (and water) rift valley system, the Grand Banks and the mains. Perhaps 80 % of the damage in the Arctic Islands (Basham et al., 1995). 1906 San Francisco earthquake resulted from fires caused by the quake (Smith, Tectonics and Earthquakes 1996). Tectonic plates form as the earth's mantle is extruded at spreading centres such as mid- Most earthquakes that cause oceanic ridges. These areas are called zones extensive loss of life and property occur of divergence. As the plates move apart and along the boundaries between major over the earth's surface they encounter tectonic plates (Smith, 1996). The entire resistance from other plates, and one of two west coast of Canada lies on a major types of response follows. At zones of boundary between the Pacific and North transcursion, the two plates slide past each American plates. Other major areas at risk other along a series of slip faults — for from earthquakes are those that lie near example, the San Andreas fault in California. tectonic rift systems (e.g. the St. Lawrence At zones of convergence, they collide, Rift), where tectonic plates split apart. Table resulting in one of three scenarios. If both 2.12 lists significant Canadian earthquakes are continental plates, orogeny, or mountain- from 1870 to 1988. building, often follows. If both are oceanic, the lighter plate subducts the denser. If one The primary earthquake hazard is is continental and the other oceanic, the caused by ground movement following thicker and less dense continental plate floats abrupt shifting of the tectonic plates. This over the oceanic, which is subducted and leads to structural damage and the possible reabsorbed into the mantle. As the oceanic collapse of buildings. Secondary hazards are plate is thrust downward to pass beneath the fires following the event, landslides, rock and continental plate, there develops a dipping, snow avalanches, soil liquefaction and planar region (20-55) of seismic activity, tsunamis. These events, especially fire called the Wadati-Benioff zone (Briggs, following, can be just as devastating as the 1989; Summerfield, 1991; Rogers, 1994; earthquake itself. Smith, 1996).

Earthquakes are concentrated in narrow bands along the margins of the

57 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards I Table 2.12 Siginificant Canadian earthquakes. I Date: Location Magnitude (Richter scale) I 20 Oct., 1870 Charlevoix-Kamouraska region 6.5 I 15 Dec., 1872 Washington-BC border 7.4 4 Sept., 1899 Yukon-Alaska border 7.9 I 6 Dec., 1918 Vancouver Island 6.9 I 1 Mar., 1925 Charlevoix-Kamouraska region 6.7

6 May, 1929 South of Queen Charlotte Islands 7.0 I 8 Nov., 1929 Atlantic Ocean 7.2 I 20 Nov., 1933 Baffin Bay 7.3

1 Nov., 1935 Quebec-Ontario border 6.2 I 5 Sept., 1944 Eastern Ontario-New York 5.6 I 23 June, 1946 Vancouver Island 7.3 I 22 Aug., 1949 Off Queen Charlotte Islands 8.1 10 July, 1958 Alaska-BC border 7.9 I 24 June, 1970 South of Queen Charlotte Islands 7.4 I 20 Dec., 1976 West of Vancouver Island 6.7

28 Feb., 1979 Yukon-Alaska border 7.2 I 17 Dec., 1980 West of Vancouver Island 6.8 I 23 Dec., 1985 Mackenzie District, NWT 6.9

12 Nov., 1988 Saguenay region, Quebec 6.0 I Source: Geologic Survey of Canada (1994). 1 58 I I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards tectonic plates. Intermediate-depth (70-300 Deep earthquakes do not always surface at km) and deep (>300 km) earthquakes are the epicenter, but may be confined to the I associated mainly with areas of subduction interior of the earth. However, most (Briggs, 1989). However, shallow events earthquakes are shallow such that the seismic (< 70 km) cause the greatest damage and are waves erupt at the epicenter and propagate I the most difficult to predict (Rogers, 1994). as one of three types of waves: P, S, or L waves (Briggs, 1989; Summerfield, 1991; Mechanics of Earthquakes Smith, 1996). I Occurring less than 700 km below the earth's surface, an earthquake is the sudden P waves are the primary, movement and fracturing of rock along a compression waves, which move rapidly at i zone of weakness known as a fault. For depth. Energy is transmitted to adjacent example, the seismic process in a particles in a compression-expansion motion. convergence zone begins as a subducting That is, the particles are initially pushed I oceanic plate applies tectonic strain to a forward, then pulled back in the same continental plate. In response to this strain, direction as wave propagation away from the the elastic properties of the continental crust focus. Like sound waves, P waves vibrate I enable the margin to deform, which can be particles and can pass through all mediums seen at the surface as a shortening or bulging (Briggs, 1989; Summerfield, 1991; Smith, of the coastline. The energy from this 1996). 1 deformation is stored and builds as elastic energy in the rock. When the stress of the S waves are the secondary, shear I elastic energy exceeds the strength of the waves, which move up to 40 % more slowly rock, the fault ruptures. The sudden through the ground than P waves. Energy is movement and fracturing of rock along the transmitted by shaking particles up and I fault releases the pent-up elastic energy, down, perpendicular to the wave which propagates as seismic waves. These propagation. Unlike P waves, which can waves radiate outward in widening, pass through all mediums, S waves can only I concentric rings around the fault, much like pass through solid materials (Briggs, 1989; the rings from a rock thrown into a lake. Summerfield, 1991; Smith, 1996). The fracturing and elastic rebounding of the I rock on either side of the rupture cause the L waves are the longer, Love or ground to shake. The point of rupture, Rayleigh waves, which shake the ground where seismic waves originate, is known as horizontally at right angles to the direction of I the hypocenter, orfocus. The position wave propagation. Though the slowest directly above the hypocenter, at the earth's seismic waves, L waves can travel the surface, is the epicenter. The epicenter is the furthest, since they are not interrupted by I source point for earthquake measurements discontinuities in the earth. During an (Briggs, 1989; Smith, 1996). earthquake, L waves are also responsible for most of the damage to surface structures I Seismic Waves located more than a few kilometres beyond Elastic energy is released during an the epicenter (Smith, 1996). I earthquake as seismic waves, or shock waves. Originating at the hypocenter, shock The attenuation of a seismic wave - I waves radiate outward through the earth. the rate at which the wave dissipates or 59 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards decays — depends on the density and elastic (up to 30 m) (Smith, 1996). As these waves properties of the material through which the strike the shore, their buoyancy and drag wave passes. For instance, S waves can only forces can scour away virtually any object in travel as long as there is solid material, such their path. as rock, to pass through. Though P waves can be transmitted through any material, The threat of large tsunamis in some substrates, like unconsolidated fill, Canada is mainly on the west coast. amplify its propagation, while others, such as Furthermore, since attenuation of distant rock, dampen its movement. As well, if the earthquakes does not produce appreciable hypocenter is deep within the mantle, shock wave heights, the major concern is with waves experience discontinuities in velocity tsunamis produced locally (Viurty and at depth as they travel through the mantle- Stronach, 1989). crust boundary (called the Moho) (Briggs, 1989; Summerfield, 1991; Smith, 1996). 2.4.3 Mass Movements A wide variety of mass movements (such as During most earthquakes, several landslides, earthflows, mudflows, rockfalls, initial foreshocks occur, which are related to rock avalanches, ground ice slips, snow the fracturing of obstructions and bonds avalanches) occur throughout Canada, along the fault. This is followed by a more especially along river valleys and in severe principal shock of the main permafrost, coastal, and mountainous displacement, which can last from a few regions. Though the majority of these seconds to a few minutes. The longer the events do not significantly affect event, the more extensive the damage at the Canadian population, every year mass surface. Finally, rebounding of the rock after movements cause serious problems on the principal movement produces major transportation corridors (such as aftershocks, which can range from minor the Trans-Canada Highway). Since 1840, tremors to significant motions (Briggs, 1989; nine major events have caused a total of 262 Summerfield, 1991; Smith, 1996). deaths. The worst landslide disaster occurred in Alberta, 1903, and caused 76 2.4.2 Tsunamis fatalities. Each year, Canadians spend Tsunamis result from tectonic displacement millions of dollars to repair damage to of the ocean floor caused by large, shallow infrastructure and for landslide prevention oceanic crust earthquakes or by volcanic (Basham et al., 1995). island explosions (Smith, 1996). When the oceans are disturbed by tectonic or volcanic Mass movements are displacements activity, large volumes of water (many of the earth en masse under the forces of hundreds of cubic lcilometres) can be thrust gravity. Such activity is usually facilitated by upward by rapid, vertical sea-floor water, lack of vegetation, and the underlying displacement. Water builds up and spreads geology. Mass movements can be both rapid in all directions at speeds of 140 ms-1 or or slow. Slow mass movements (e.g. more. Tsunamis can travel great distances, solifluction and soil creep) are movements of even across the Pacific ocean. In deep ocean the earth's surface which are imperceptible waters, the wave heights are shallow (-0.5 to the human eye. They occur on all m), but as the mass of water rushes towards hillslopes, but are much more pronounced on shallower waters, the wave heights increase

60 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards steeper slopes. Although these types of such, the potential for major volcanic movements are not responsible for significant activity exists for much of western I losses of life, they can cause major amounts Canada. of property damage (Smith, 1996). The hazard posed by volcanic I Rapid mass movements are much eruptions is related to the type of extruded more costly and deadly. They can occur material. Volcanoes eject a range from almost instantaneously, move downslope molten lava to pyroclastics (i.e. ash and I extremely rapidly, and displace large particulates). Shield volcanoes, which volumes of material. These events usually extrude molten lava, are relatively gentle, involve failure of a slope along a preferred non-explosive, and rarely eject material into I failure plane (e.g. cracks, water tables, the atmosphere. The principle damage they bedding planes), where the material is cause is to infrastructure in the path of weaker. If the stress produced by the slope flowing molten lava. Since some erupt I material (e.g. it's weight) exceeds the frequently (sometimes daily events in the strength along the failure plane, the mass case of the Hawaiian Islands), advanced movement is eminent. Such events are warnings can allow for evacuation. I strongly enhanced by excess water, which increases the material's weight and decreases In contrast, composite volcanoes I its strength. Vegetation, slope angle and eject molten lava and pyroclastic material in geology also influence the stability. fragments ranging in size from fine ash to blocks the size of houses. They erupt I Serious landsliding occurs in the explosively with little warning. The most sensitive sediments of the St. Lawrence powerful can spew ash and debris for Lowlands, the clay shales of the prairie thousands of kilometres, blanketing I provinces, the ice-rich sediments of the everything with metres of hot ash and debris. permafrost regions, and the Canadian Since most buildings are not designed to Rockies and Coastal Mountains (Basham et carry such loads, collapse is likely. Ash I al., 1995). Large scale events, in excess of 5 plumes also pose a major threat to the million cubic metres, have occurred along aviation industry. If jet aircraft fly through the St. Lawrence River and in the Canadian these events, the pyroclastics can fuse to the I Rockies and Coastal mountains. turbines, causing engine failure. As well, ash plumes can combine with precipitation (e.g. 2.3.4 Volcanic Eruptions Mt. Pinatubo, Phillipines), or hot ash with I Most Canadian volcanic activity is confined snow cover (e.g. Mt. St. Helens), causing to British Columbia and the Yukon. In the massive mudflows, which inundate past 2 million years, roughly 100 volcanoes surrounding regions. I and volcanic fields have formed (Canadian National Report-IDNDR, 1994) (see Figure The volcanoes in and near western 2.18). While eruptions in Canada have not Canada are all composite in nature, and, I occurred recently, the forces that produce hence, the potential for extensive, them are still active. Since volcanic ash widespread damage exists. For example, I plumes can travel significant distances (see roughly 1200 years ago, Mt. Churchill near Figure 2.18), active volcanoes in the U.S. the Alaska-Yukon border, erupted, I (e.g. Mt. St. Helens) can affect Canada. As devastating almost 300,000 km2 of the 61 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards

4 C j n7lipr

( 3 Helens c ' ■ 0 2. VVhite River- 3. VVhite River ..,, 4. Bridge River 5. Mt. St. lielens < „ 6. Mazama 7. Glacial Peak — Volcanic Ash

7

A - 6

Figure 2.18: Distribution of Canadian volcanoes and significant ashfalls. Source: Emergency Preparedness Canada, 1996.

62 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards Yukon. The 1980 eruption of Mt. St. Helens geophysical hazards in Canada. In: Proceedings affected residents and aviators in British of a Tri-lateral Workshop on Natural Hazards. Etkin, D. (ed.). Merrickville, Canada, February Columbia, Alberta and Saskatchewan I 11-14. pp. 1-1 to 1-25. (Canadian National Report - IDNDR, 1994). Similar eruptions in either Canada or the Bone, N. (1991). The Aurora: Sun-Earth I U.S. could significantly impact the aviation Interactions. Ellis Horwood, New York, 156 p. industry and western Canadians and incur major economic costs. CEA data (1990-1994) I Canadian National Report - IDNDR ( 1994). Report to the World Conference on Natural Disaster I 2.5 Summary Reduction, Yokohama, Japan. Charlton, R. B., Kachman, B. M., Wojtiw, L. (1995). Canada is subject to a wide variety of natural Urban Hailstorms: a view from Alberta. Natural I hazards which can occur throughout the Hazards 12: 29-75. year. Summer probably represents the most vulnerable period as this is when the Church, C., Burgess, D., Doswell, C., Davies-Jones, four most devastating weather related R. (eds.), (1993). Geophysical Monograph vol I 79. The tornado: its structure, dynamics, hazards can occur: floods, drought, hail prediction, and hazards. American Geophysical I and tornadoes. Union, 637 p. The most significant hazards, based Clodman, S. and Chrisholm, W. (1994). Lightning on past and potential socio-economic effects, flash climatology in the southern Great Lakes I are earthquakes, floods, droughts, tornadoes, region. Submitted to Atmospheric-Ocean. hail, severe winter storms, and windstorms. Cotton, W. R. and Pielke, R. A. (1995). Human These seven hazards require more detailed Impacts on Weather and Climate. Cambridge I risk analyses in order to determine the University Press, Cambridge, 288 p. vulnerability of Canadian society. Even with these investigations, prediction of future Davenport, A. G. (1988). The reduction of 1 impacts will be a daunting task; without windstorm hazard through the IDNDR. Natural Hazards 1: 235-243. them, it will be well nigh impossible. Davenport, A. G. (1994). Atmospheric extremes, t insurance and construction. In: Proceedings of a References workshop on improving responses to atmospheric extremes: the role of insurance and compensation. McCulloch, J. and Etkin, D. I Ahrens, C. D. (1994). Meteorology Today, An (eds.). Toronto, Ontario, Canada, October 3-4. Introduction to Weather, Climate and the pp. 2-38 to 2-48. Environment (5th ed.). West Publishing I Company, St. Paul, MN, 592 p. Dayton, L. ( 1989). Solar storms halt stock market as computers crash. New Scientist 9: 35. Andrews, J. (1993). Flooding, Canada Water Book. Ministry of Supply and Services, Cat. No. EN I Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC) (1996). 37-96/1993E. Natural Hazards. National Atlas of Canada. Basham, P. W., Clague, J. J., Evenas, S. G., Grieve, Environment Canada (1987). Climate Atlas of I R. A. F., Heginbottom, J. A., Hickson, C. J. and Canada, map series 3: pressure, humidity, Moran, K. (1995). Overview of geological and I cloud, visibility, and days with thunderstorms, 63 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards

hail, smoke and haze, fog, freezing Klemp, J. B. (1987). Dynamics of tornadic precipitation, blowing snow, frost, snow on the thunderstorms. Annual Review of Fluid ground. Ministry of Supply and Services, Cat. 19: 369-402. Mechanics No. EN56-63/3-1986. Koshida, G. (1992). About Drought in Canada. Environment Canada (1988). Climate Atlas of Canadian Climate Program, Atmosphere Canada, map series 5, wind. Ministry of Supply Environment Services, Canada, CLI-1-92. and Services, Cat No. EN56-63/5-1988. LaDochey, S., Annett, C. H. (1983). A damage- based climatology of lightning in Manitoba. Etldn, D. A. and Maarouf, A. (1995). An overview Climatological Bulletin 17: 3-21. of atmospheric natural hazards in Canada. In: Proceedings of a Tri-lateral Workshop on Lavvford, R. G. (1992). Research implications of the Natural Hazards. Etkin, D. (ed.). Merrickville, 1988 Canadian Prairie provinces drought. Canada, Feb. 11-14. pp. 1-63 to 1-92. Natural Hazards 6: 109-129. Etkin, D. A., Brun, S. E. (unpublished). A revised risk analysis of tornadoes in Canada. Lawford, S., Prowse, T. D., Hogg, W., Warkentin, Manuscript. A. A. and Pilon., P. J. (1995). Hydrometeorological aspects of the flood Fujita, T. T. (1973). Tornadoes around the world. hazard. Atmosphere-Ocean 33: 303-328. Weatherwise 26: 58-60. Lerner, E. J. (1995). Space Weather. Discove,r Hogg, W. D. (1994). Heavy rainfall and floods. In: August 1995: 54-61. Proceedings of a workshop on improving Maybank, J., Bonsal, B., Jones, K., Lawford, R., responses to atmospheric extremes: the role of O'Brien, E. G., Ripley, E. A. and Wheaton, E. insurance and compensation. McCulloch, J. (1995). Drought as a natural disaster. and Etkin, D. (eds.). Toronto, Ontario, Canada, Atmosphere-Ocean 33: 195-222. October 3,4. pp. 3-44 to 3-50. Murty, T. S. and Stronach, J. A. (1989). State of Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC) (1996). tide and tsunami threat to the Pacific coast of Environmental Scan: Analysis of IBC's Canada. Natural Hazards 2: 83-86. External Environment (January, 1996). Toronto. Newark, M. J. (1982). Meteorological hazards. Insurance Institute (1994). Understanding the Wind Chinook 4: 42-44. Peril. Insurance Institute for Property Loss Reduction, 109 p. Newark, M. J. (1988). Tornado Hazard in Canada. In: Natural and Man-Made Hazards, El-Sabh, Janischewslcyi, W. and Chisholm, W.H. (1992). M. I. and Nurty T. S. (eds.). D. Reidel Lightening Ground Flash Density Publishing Company, p. 743-748. Measurements in Canada. 1 March, 1984 - 31 Dec, 1991. University of Toronto, Department Paul, A. (1991). Studies of long-lived hailstorms in of Electrical Engineering, Report 11179T382. Saskatchewan, Canada from crop insurance data. Natural Hazards 4: 345-352. Geological Survey of Canada (1994). Canadian Geophysical Atlas - Map 15, 5th ed. Phillips. D., (1990). The Climates of Canada. Environment Canada, Supply and Services Grazulis, T. P., Schaefer, J. T. and Abbey, R. F. Canada Publishing Centre, Catalogue No. (1993). Advances in tornado climatology, EN56-1/1990E, 176 p. hazards and risk assessments since tornado symposium II. Geophysical Monograph 79: 409- Rogers, G. C. (1994). Earthquakes in the Vancouver 426. area. Geological Survey of Canada Bulletin 481: 221-229.

64 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 2: Atmospheric, Hydrologic and Geophysical Hazards Smith, K.. (1996). Environmental Hazards, Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster. I Routledge Publishers, London, 389 p. Stewart, R E., Bachand, D., Dunkley, R. R., Giles, A. C., Lawson, B., Legal, L., Miller, S. T., I Murphy, B. P., Parker, M. N., Paruk, B. and Yau, M. K. (1995). Winter Storms over Canada. Atmospheric-Ocean 33: 223-247.

I Stocks, B. J. (1991). The extent and impact of forest fires in northern circumpolar countries. In: Global Biomass Burning, Atmospheric, Climatic I and Biospheric Implication. Levine, J. S. (ed.). pp. 197-202. I Wheaton, E. E. (1992). Prairie dust storms - a neglected hazard. Natural Hazards 5: 53-63.

Wheaton, E. E., Arthur, L. M., Chorney, B., I Shewchuk, S., Thorpe, J., Whiting, J. and Wittock, V. (1992). The Prairie drought of I 1988. Climatological Bulletin 26: 188-203. Wheaton, E. E. and Aurthur, L. M. (1992). Some Environmental and Economic Impacts of the 1988 Drought: With Emphasis on Saskatchewan I SRC Pub. No. E-2330-4-E- and Manitoba, Vol I. 89.

I Yip, T-C and Auld, H., Dues, W. (1995). Recommendations for Updating the 1995 National Building Code of Canada Wind I Pressures. Atmospheric Environment Service, Downsview. Unpublished document, 6 p. I I I I I I I 65 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA t Chapter 3: Climate Change and Atmospheric Hazards I 3.0 Climate Change and Atmospheric Hazards by David Elkin and Soren E. Brun 1 3.1 Introduction In a future altered climate, it may be changes in the frequency of hazards or extreme events, not I changes in means, that has the greatest impact. This section addresses the question "How might extreme events change due to enhanced greenhouse warming? ", by reviewing and summarising current literature on that issue. In some cases, prediction can reasonably be made I regarding the consequences of climate change, while in other cases the jury is still out.

Although the world climates have changed hazardous in their own right, in that they I quite dramatically and sometimes very represent changes from what societies have rapidly in the past as evidenced, in part, by adapted themselves to, it is generally glacial epochs (within each of these long- thought that the greatest impact of climate I term cycles there existed natural short-term change will be due to increases or decreases fluctuations in global and regional in the magnitude and frequency of extreme climatologies -e.g. the Little Ice Age and events (Downing et al., 1996; Mitchell and I Little Optimum), these changes were the Ericksen, 1992). This is especially true for result of natural climate variability due to societies that do not have the capacity to t factors such as changes in the earth's orbital adapt to potential increases in extreme parameters. events. Therefore, if increases in extreme events as a result of climate t Since the onset of the industrial change become a reality, they will revolution, humans have been steadily undoubtedly lead to a greater number of increasing the output of greenhouse gases natural disasters. The following sections t (e.g. Carbon Dioxide and Methane) mainly discuss current views regarding the through the burning of fossil fuels. As incidences of extreme events as a result of well, through deforestation, humans have climate change. 1 also altered the earth's natural ability to absorb these gases. In this way, humans NIôël: Predictiôns have caused the concentration of results of most numencal chmate mod t t half century â::< greenhouse gases to build up in the ict that over the gex.<:: . ..: ..:. ... : will lëâd:::to.: atmosphere. Since these gases readily mg in 'co, absorb infrared radiation, they retain ^n average overall WWriing o£the:éârt; I energy which would have otherwise ;lobal

Though global changes in I temperatures or precipitation can be I 66 1 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 3: Climate Change and Atmospheric Hazards 3.2 Tropical Cyclones excluded, they must effectively be "swamped" by large natural variability ", and that the use I It has been suggested that tropical cyclones of climate models to assess changes in and hurricanes might become more cyclone frequency was not at a useful frequent or intense in a warmer climate. stage. I This argument is based on the fact that sea surface temperatures (SST), the major energy supply for tropical storms, will I increase as the climate warms. However, since the mid-1970s there has been a I general decrease in the number of intense North Atlantic hurricanes (Landsea et al., 1996). The years 1995 and 1996 suggest a 3.3 Extra-Tropical Storms I return to a more active Atlantic hurricane (Mid-latitude cyclones) pattern. This more active pattern has been correlated with more favourable phases of It has commonly been argued that since I the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), polar latitudes are expected to warm more increased west African rainfall prior to and than mid or tropical latitudes, then the during the hurricane season and below decreased north-south temperature gradient normal temperatures in the equatorial eastern will result in weaker mid-latitude storms. Pacific ocean, which are used as predictors However, the effect of atmospheric of coming hurricane seasons (Gray et al., moisture complicates this issue. A warmer 1994). climate should increase the amount of latent heat release providing more energy and Broccoli and Manabe (1990) thus strengthening storms. Lambert (1995) examined tropical cyclone frequency in an hypothesised that the latent heat effect is equilibrium 2 x CO2 Global Climate Model responsible for a greater number of intense (GCM), and found a large increase in storms. It is not clear therefore, whether storms with prescribed cloudiness, but a mid-latitude cyclones will become lower frequency of storms when cloud stronger or weaker (Held, 1993). feedback is allowed. Interestingly, SST increases were larger in the cloud feedback Changes in the atmospheric case, which points to the importance of circulation pattern may well alter storm factors other than SST in cyclone tracks. Balling and Lawson (1982) found Haarsma et al. (1993), using development. a shift in winter circulation patterns over a GCM simulation, found a 50% increase North America in the early 1950s, from in the number of cyclones, with relatively predominantly zonal to meridional, a more intense ones. change that would have major impacts on storm tracks. They also noted that the Lighthill et al. (1994) concluded interior plains and north-east quarter of the through an examination of observational data U.S. appear to be most sensitive to the that "though the possibility of some minor change in circulation. Hall et al. (1994) indirect effects of global warming on tropical cyclone frequency and intensity cannot be and Carnell et al. (1996) found an

67 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA i Chapter 3: Climate Change and Atmospheric Hazards I intensification and northward shift of storm convective rainfall in a warmer climate tracks. Prediction of storm tracks in a (Mitchell and Ingram, 1990; Noda and warmer climate remains a major challenge Tokioka, 1989). Griffiths et al. (1993) I (Held, 1993). discuss the difficulties in assessing convective changes. Agee (1991) examined storm I frequencies during periods of warming and Price and Rind (1993), using GCM cooling, and found statistically significant output, suggested that a doubling of CO2 linear relationships between the two. with a 4.20C warming in global I During periods of warming, cyclone temperature would increase cloud-to- frequency increases, while during periods ground lightning strokes by 72% over I of cooling, it decreases. In the 1950 to continental regions. Etkin (1995) in an 1975 cooling period, storm frequencies empirical examination of tornado dropped by 30%, while in the 1905 to 1940 occurrence in the prairies of western I warming period, they increased by around Canada found that tornado frequency is 19%. Lambert (1995), using the Canadian greater in warmer springs and summers. Climate Centre (CCC) GCM, found a 4% This implies that the number of tornadoes I decrease in extra-tropical cyclones in the may increase there as a result of climate northern hemisphere though the frequency change. of intense cyclones increased in the north I : . .. .. Atlantic and north Pacific, particularly near v i dëé>süpgorts;:;thé;:hÿpôthesis: . ôf:;môie the Aleution and Icelandic lows (Lambert, equent and sevdre thûnderstôrms:.in the 1996). I ^uture.: : ...... I 3.5 Extreme Temperature Events

In a warmer climate, heat waves would I become more frequent, while cold waves would become less so. Evidence suggests that even small amounts of warming can I 3.4 Thunderstorms have major impacts on this hazard due to non-linearities in the system. Convective storms (severe thunderstorms I producing hail, lightning, tornadoes, heavy The frequency with which extreme rain and strong winds) remain a particularly temperature events occur has been analysed I difficult issue for GCM's because of their by Mearns et al (1984), Wigley (1988) and small scale. Intuitively, one would expect Katz and Brown (1992). Mearns et al. more frequent and more intense convective (1984) note the strong non-linear I activity since a warming surface and a relationship between changes in the mean cooling stratosphere in mid-latitudes will and changes in the probability of extremes, create greater instability in the lower which may be the principal way in which I atmosphere. A number of studies have climate change is felt. They found large suggested more frequent intense I 68 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 3: Climate Change and Atmospheric Hazards changes in the likelihood of heat waves at GQg 41-fodël§,:à17'6:coïtëdellfeetecIè Des Moines, Iowa (by a factor of 3), with relatively small changes in mean cornmoir:b6forethe middle of temperature (1.7 °C). Hennessy and Pittock :ceritury:,:and::: .e.Otd:wavtS:::lèssfrectitent: (1995) using a global warming scenario of 0.5 °C found 25% more days over 35 °C in 3.6 Floods summer and spring at Victoria, Australia, and 50-100% more in a 1.5 ° C warming Concern about increased flooding in a scenario. 2xCO2 world result from the fact that warmer atmospheres can hold more Wigley (1988) found that risk is moisture, and precipitation is expected to extremely sensitive to changes in the mean increase as a result. As well, the (assuming that the extreme events come precipitation is expected to become more from the same parent population). He convective (i.e. from thunderstorms) in found, for example, that for an event with nature (Mitchell and Ingram, 1990), and a 10% risk of occurring in 100 years, the therefore more intense over smaller areas - risk is increased to 90% if the mean were suggesting greater flooding problems. increased by 0.02 standard deviations per year (assuming a normal distribution). Gordon et al. (1992), while noting that GCMs cannot provide meaningful Katz and Brown (1992) analysed the quantitative estimates of how extreme sensitivity of extreme events to changes in rainfall events may change, note that their the mean and standard deviation (for a GCM shows a marked increase in normal distribution), and found that convective rainfall events and a mid- extreme events are more sensitive to latitude decline of non-convective events. variability than to its average, and that this The frequency of large rainfall events sensitivity becomes greater the more increased (with return periods decreasing extreme the event. This conclusion was by around a factor of two for the central also noted by Barrow and Hulme (1995). U.S. but by up to five elsewhere); while In an analysis of temperature extremes, a the frequency of light rainfall days 0.5 ° C change in the mean results in a 35% decreased for all regions, especially in mid- increase in probability of daily exceedence latitudes. These results are similar to Noda and Tolciaoka (1989) and Hansen et al. of 38°C, while the same change in standard (1988). deviation results in a 71% increase. This occurs because the sensitivity to mean This increase in variability the sensitivity to increases linearly while (resulting from more favoured deviation increases quadratically. standard convection) suggests potentially large yet unpublished, research at Recent, but as changes in the probability of extreme suggest that the University of Toronto events, as discussed by Katz and Brown increases in hot summer temperatures have (1992). In one example by Smith (1993), a historically been correlated with increases 25% increase in half hour rainfall in variance over much of Canada. intensities for Sydney changed the 1 in 100

69 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 3: Climate Change and Atmospheric Hazards year event into a 1 in 17 year event. While Vance (1991) found that drought on noting the severe limitations of estimating the northern Great Plains is not cyclical, changes to flood probabilities, Smith but rather that intervals of intense drought (1993) notes that for Australia, there is a are interspersed between longer periods consensus that the frequency of extreme when drought is rare. Oladipo (1993) floods will increase. analysed drought in northern Nigeria and found a statistically significant abrupt Rind et al. (1989), Wilson and transition towards lower precipitation in the Mitchell (1987) and Parry (1994), contrary Sahel region beginning in 1968. Some to other results, did not find evidence of GCM studies show reduced summer soil increased heavy rainfall in GCM moisture values over the mid North simulations. Lawford et al. (1995) found American continent, suggesting more no clear evidence of historical trends that frequent droughts, though Maybank et al. indicate changes to extreme flood events in (1995) indicate that the trend is not clear. Canada, though the data is suggestive that Cubash et al. (1995) found a doubling Alberta may have been experiencing more from 1% to 2% in the frequency of 3 heavy rainfall storms since the 1960s. month droughts in central North America with a doubling of CO2.

I

drouL • 3.7 Drought

The concern is that if precipitation becomes 3.8 Other Hazards more convective with an increase in heavier events, then the number of dry days will Various other hazards are tied to the more increase and drought will become more primary ones discussed above. For severe (IPCC, 1995). This could be example, wildfires are a function of exacerbated by increases in potential temperature, the precipitation regime and evapotranspiration due to higher lightning. Street (1989) depicts a longer temperatures. and more severe forest fire season in Ontario with climate warming, with a shift An interesting paper by Hughes and in timing towards later in the season for the Brown (1992) indicates that central most severe period. Storm surges and California has had fewer droughts in the storm waves result from ocean or lake period from 1850 to 1950 than at any time based storms. It is not clear how these in the last 2000 years. This suggests that hazards will evolve if the climate warms the current climate is anomalously benign, (Khandelcar and Swail, 1995) due to and that increased drought frequency in the uncertainty about storm intensities. future is not unlikely for that region.

70 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 3: Climate Change and Atmospheric Hazards 3.9 Summary storminess: Simulated changes in northern hemisphere winter due to increasing CO2. Climate Dynamics 12: 467-476. I Conclusions on how climate change will affect the frequencies and intensities of Cubash, U., Waszkewitz, J., Hegerl, G. and Perlwitz, extreme events in Canada are mixed. In a J. (1995). Regional climate changes as t warmer climate, it seems likely that the simulated in time slice experiments. MPI Report number of convective events (e.g. 153. Climate Change 31: 273-304. thunderstorms with extreme rainfall, I Downing, T. E., Olsthoorn, T. E. and Tol, R. S. J. tornadoes and hall), heat waves, floods and (1996). Climate Change and Extreme Events, drought will increase in many areas; while Altered risk, socio-economic impacts and policy the frequencies of cold waves will become responses. European Commission, Amsterdam, I The Netherlands, 309 p. rarer. The relationship between the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones Etkin, K. A. (1995). Beyond the year 2000, more I and global warming is inconclusive. Table tornadoes in western Canada? Implications from 3.1 is a summary of the current views on the historical record. Natural Hazards 12: 19- the future of extreme events as a result of 27. I climate warming. Gordon, H. B., Whetton, P. H., Piccock. A. B., Fowler, A.M. and Haylock, M. R. (1992). Simulated changes in daily rainfall intensity due t References to the enhanced greenhouse effect: Implications for extreme rainfall events. Climate Dynamics Agee, M. (1991). Trends in cyclone and anticyclone 8: 83-102 I frequency and comparison with periods of warming and cooling over the northern Gray, W., Lansea, C. W., Mielke, P. W. and Berry, K.J. (1994). Predicting Atlantic basin seasonal hemisphere. Journal of Climate 4: 263-267. cycline activity by 1 June. Weather and I Forecasting, vol. 9, pp. 103-115. Ahrens, C. D. (1994). Meteorolo^y Today, An Introduction to Weather, Climate and the Griffiths, D. J., Colquhoun, J. R., Batt, K. L. and Environment (5th ed.). West Publishing thunderstorms I Company, St. Paul, MN, 592 p. Casinadar, T. R. (1993). Severe in New South Wales: Climatology and means of assessing the impact of climate change. Balling, R. C. and Lawson, M. P. (1982). Twentieth Climatic Change 25: 369-388. I century changes in winter climatic regions. Climatic Change 4: 57-69. Haarsma, R. J., Mitchell. J. F. B. and Senior, C. A. in a GCM. Barrow, E. M. and Hulme, M. (1996). Changing (1993). Tropical disturbances t Climate Dynamics 8: 247-257. probabilities of daily temperature extremes in the UK related to future global warming and changes in climate variability. Climate Hall, N. M. J., Hoskins, B. J., Valdes, P. J. and C. A. (1994) Storm tracks in a high I Research 6: 21-3 1. Senior, resolution GCM with doubled CO2. Quarterly Broccoli, A. J. and Manabe, S. (1990). Can existing Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society I climate models be used to study anthropogenic 120: 1209-1230. changes in tropical cyclone climate. Geophysical Research Letters 17: 1917-1920. Hansen, J., Fung, I., Lacis, A., Rind, D., Lebedoff, S., Ruedy, R. and Russel, G. (1988). Global I climate changes as forecast by GISS's three- Carnell, R. E., Senior, C. A. and Mitchell, J. F. B. dimensional model. Journal of Geophysical (1996). An assessment of measure of I Research 93: 9341-9364. 71 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA t Chapter 3: Climate Change and Atmospheric Hazards I Held, I. M. (1993). Large-scale dynamics and global cyclones. Bulletin of the American warming. BAMS 74: 228-241. Meteorological Society 75: 2147-2157.

Hennessy, K. J. and Pittock, A. B. (1995). Maybank, J., Bonsal, B. Jones, K. Lawford, R., I Greenhouse warming and threshold temperature O'Brian, E. G., Ripley, E. A. and Wheaton, E. events in Victoria, Australia. International (1995). Drought as a natural disaster. Journal of Climatology 15: 591-612. Atmosphere-Ocean 33: 195-222. I Hughes, M. K and Brown, P. M. (1992). Drought Mearns, L. O., Katz, R. W. and Schneider, S. H. frequency in central California since 101 B.C. (1984). Extreme high-temperature events: Recorded in giant sequoia tree rings. Climate changes in their probabilities with changes in I Dynamics 6: 161-167. mean temperature. Journal of Climate and Applied Meteorology 23: 1601-1613. IPCC. (1995). Climate Change 1995: The Science I of Climate Change. Houghton, J. T. , Meira Mitchell, J.K. and Ericksen, N.J. (1992). Effects of Filho, L. G., Callander, B. A., Harris, N., climate change on weather-related disasters. In: Kattenberg, A. and Maskell, K. (eds.). Irving M. Mintzer (ed.): Confronting Climate I Cambridge University Press. Change Risks, Implications and Responses. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge pp. Khandekar, M. L. and Swail, V. R. (1995). Storm 141-151. waves in Canadian waters: A major marine I hazard. Atmosphere-Ocean 33: 303-328. Mitchell, J. F. B. and Ingram, W. J. (1990). On CO2 and climate. Mechanisms of changes in cloud. Katz, R. W. and Brown, B. G. (1992). Extreme Journal of Climate 5: 5-21. t events in a changing climate: Variability is more important than averages. Climatic Change 21: Noda, A. and Tokioka, T. (1989). The effect of 289-302. doubling CO2 concentration on convective and I non-convective precipitation in a general Lambert, S. J. (1995). The effect of enhanced circulation model coupled with a simple mixed greenhouse warming on winter cyclone layer ocean. Journal of the Meteorological frequencies and strengths. Journal of Climate Society. Japan 67: 95-110. I 8: 1447-1452. Oladipo, E. O. (1993). Drought in northern Nigeria: Lambert, S. J., 1996. Intense extratropical northern An indication of abrupt climatic change. t hemisphere winter cyclone events: 1899-1991. Weather and Climate 13: 34-3 9. Journal of Geophysical Research D 101: 21319- 21325. Parey, S. (1994). Simulations de trente ans 1XCOzi 2XCO2, 3XCOZ avec le modele du LMD I Landsea, C. W., Nicholls, N., Grucey, W. M. and (64X50X11) premiers resultants. EDF, Avila, L. A. (1996). Downward trends in the Direction des Etudes et Recherches, HE- . frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes during 33/94/008. t the past five decades. Geophysical Research Letters 23: 1697-1700. Price, C. and Rind, D. (1993). Lightning fires in a 2xCO2 world. In: Proceedings of the 12th t Lawford, R. G., Prowse, T. D., Hogg. W. D., Conference on Fire and Forest Meteorology. Warkentin, A. A. and Pilon, P. J. (1995). Jekyll Island, Georgia, October 26-28. pp. 77- Hydrometeorological aspects of flood hazards in 84. Canada. Atmosphere-Ocean 33: 303-328. I Rind, D., Goldberg, R., and Ruedy, R. (1989). Lighthill, J., Holland, G., Gray, W., Landsea, C., Change in climate variability in the 21st Craig, G., Evans, J., Kurihara, Y. and Guard, C. century. Climate Change 14: 5-38. I (1994). Global climate change and tropical I 72 1 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 3: Climate Change and Atmospheric Hazards Smith, D. I. (1993). Greenhouse climatic change and flood damages, the implications. Climatic I Change 25: 319-333. Street, R. B. (1989). Climate change and forest fires in Ontario. In: Proceedings, 10th Conference I on Fire and Forest Meteorology, Ottawa, Ontario. pp. 177-181. I Vance, R. E. (1991). A paleo-botanical study of holocene droughtfrequency in southern Alberta. Ph.D. Thesis, University of British I Columbia, 180 p. Wigley, T. M. L. (1988). The effect of changing climate on the frequency of absolute extreme I events. Climate Monitor 17: 44-55. Wilson, C. A. and Mitchell, J. F. B. (1987). Simulated climate and CO2 induced climate I change over western Europe. Climatic Change I 10: 11-42. I I I I I I I I I 73 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact 4.0 The Social and Economic Impact of Hydrometeorological Hazards and Disasters: a Preliminary Inventory by David Elkin

The social and economic costs to Canadians from natural hazards are substantial, not only as a result of damages when events occur, but also due to adaptation and recovery. In particular, drought, flood and hail have had significant economic impacts. Understanding the impact these hazards have had can help us can devise better policy tools to deal with them.

4.1 Introduction hazards, in terms of prevention, response and recovery. Canada is subject to a variety of natural 3. Industries (e.g. Insurance) can base their hazards, both geophysical and cost-benefit analyses on the best hydrometeorological as described in Chapter available data. 2. From time to time, these hazards have had significant social and economic impacts This paper will only inventory on Canadians, and they are sure to continue hydrometeorological events, though other to do so in the future. Three recent natural hazards are certainly important (in examples occurred in July 1996, when fact the greatest risk Canadians face in the damaging hailstorms occurred over Calgary future from a natural hazard is probably due and Winnipeg ,and severe flooding to an earthquake). The inventory upon devastated the Saguenay region of Quebec. which this paper is based is summarised, in Coincidentally, all three of these events part, in Figure 4.1, which shows the number occurred during an international conference of identified events by hazard for which cost on natural hazards being held in Toronto (we estimates could or could not be made. The shall not, however, infer any cause and effect total of known costs are provided at the end relationship, though it is also noteworthy of each bar, in 1995 dollars. Tornadoes are that during the 1990's — the International not included, since there are over 2,200 Decade of Natural Disaster Reduction - lcnown Canadian events. Events are included natural disasters world-wide increased if the information source suggested a dramatically). 'significant' impact of some sort, either meteorological, social or economic. No Understanding the historical and precise definition of significant is used. The potential costs resulting from natural hazards data collection was done primarily by and disasters are important because: undergraduate and graduate students during 1. People, if they are aware of their risks, their work terms. For some categories, such are able to make more informed as heat and cold, a number of events were personal decisions regarding the identified, though no cost estimates were purchase of insurance and other found. Further research in these categories mitigative and adaptive options. may reveal some economic information. 2. Govenunents at various levels can Some categories such as floods and storms devise better policy tools to deal with have a number of estimates, though there are

74 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact

Floods

Storms

P. Cold Co N DrOUghtS

Co Z Forest Fires

Heat

Hurricanes

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Number of Events

I No $ Estimate VVith $ Estimate I

Figure 4.1 No. of Identified Events (tornadoes not included), 1961-1996 Totals in 1995 dollars.

75 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact I still a large proportion of events with no 4.3 Natural Hazards in Context estimate. Droughts, by far, are the most costly hazard, though they rank fourth on the World-wide, people die from many causes, I list of frequency. It is worth noting that for the dominant ones being civil strife and hurricanes, only Hazel had an economic famine. Figure 4.3 shows the number of impact that was known. disasters world-wide from 1967-1991, I including numbers injured and killed. Note An historical survey of Canadian that floods are the most frequent disaster, disasters (Jones, 1991; Jones, 1995) shows though drought claims the most victims. I that 44% of them were weather or climate Most natural hazards cause relatively few related. Almost one-third of all disasters deaths directly, especially in developed occur at sea, and 80% of those are weather countries though their economic impact can I related. A listing of these disasters follows be large. The one possible exception is in Table 4.1 and Table 4.2. famine, which is often drought or flood related, thôugh some would argue that the I number of fatalities are more related to social 4.2 What Are Natural Disasters? issues than the physical hazard itself.

Natural disasters are the extreme of natural The numbers in Figure 4.3 vary hazards, and occur when social vulnerability greatly from country to country for obvious I is triggered by an extreme event. A disaster reasons. Numbers for countries that are not is said to occur when recovery is not possible at war and that are wealthy enough to using local resources. There have been support good health care systems and I numerous recent examples, including infrastructures that reduce vulnerability Hurricane Andrew, the Northridge and Kobe would be quite different from those for earthquakes and the Saguenay flood. Blaike countries which suffer from a variety of I et al. (1994) emphasises the importance of social and economic woes. Costs incurred in understanding the social roots of disasters Canada are summarised below. (while nature causes the event, man makes the disaster). The costs we incur from hazards are a function of our adaptive 4.4 Social Costs in Canada decisions. For example, if nobody lived in I trailer parks or attended schools in portables, there would be many fewer deaths from 4.4.1 Transportation tornadoes. Unsafe conditions result from a Aircraft Accidents I number of social forces which are rooted in Figure 4.4 shows aircraft and helicopter limited access to power, economic resources accidents in Canada from 1985 to 1994. The t and the nature of political and economic filled-in icons illustrate weather related systems. Figure 4.2 (adapted from Blaike et events while human-environmental al., 1994) illustrates this relationship. interactions are shown from 1991 onward by I the empty circles and squares. The values were adjusted to the number of hours flown in 1994. Note the downward trend in I weather related aircraft accidents from more than 60 in 1985 to less than 20 in 1994. I 76 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact Table 4.1 Canadian weather-related disasters (single-event) with a death toll greater than 20.

Disaster Year Deaths 1. wreck of Delight off Sable Island, N.S. 1583 85 2. fleet of ships aground in fog, Quebec City 1711 884 3. hurricane hits Grand Banks, Nfid 1775 4000 4. sloop Ontario sinks in Lake Ontario 1783 190 5. Hamilton and Scourge sink in Lake Ontario 1813 53 6. Miramichi, N.B. fire 1825 200-500 7. hurricane-force winds on Lakes Ontario and Erie 1844 200 8. hurricane hist Nfld. 1847 300 9. PEI gale sinks 70 US fishing vessels 1851 150-300 10. wreck of Hungarion off Sable Island 1860 205 11. wreck of AngIo Saxon on Cape Race, Nfld. 1863 238 12. St. Lawrence River floods (Sorel and Trois Rivieres) 1865 45 13. City of Boston disappears in storm off N.S. 1870 191 14. wreck of Atlantic if fog of Prospect, N.S. 1873 535-585 15. forest fires near Lake Huron 1881 500 16. Asia sinlcs in Georgian Bay gale 1882 126 17. Algoma sinks in Lake Superior 1885 48 18. great fire of Vancouver 1886 30-40 19. La Bourgogne/Cromartyshire collision off N.S. 1898 549 20. wreck of Valencia off Vancouver Island 1906 126 21. avalanche in Rogers Pass, BC 1910 62 22. forest fire, Porcupine, Ontario 1911 73 23. Regina tornado 1912 29 24. 34 ships sink in Great Lakes storm 1913 270 25. Southern Cross vanishes off Nfld. 1914 173 26. 4 seal ships caught in ice off Nfld. 1914 77 27. Empress oflreland/Storstad collision off Rimouski, Que. 1914 1014 28. Britannia mine avalanche, Howe Sound, BC 1915 57 29. forest fire, Cochrane/Matheson, Ontario 1916 233 30. Princess Sophia rtms aground, northern BC 1918 343 31. forest fire, Haileybury, Ontario 1922 44 32. John B. King hit by lightning 1930 30 33. 3 Great Lakes ships wrecked 1940 69 34. Truxton and Pollux aground off Nfld 1942 204 35. Hurricane Hazel 1954 83 36. TCA Northstar crash, Mt. Slesse, BC 1956 62 37. 22 fishing boats sink in storm, Escuminac, NB 1959 35 38. winter storm hits Maritimes 1964 23 39. Granduc Mt. avalanche, Stewart, BC 1965 26 40. D.J. Morrell sinks in Lake Huron 1966 28 41. crater opens in rainstorm, St. Jean-Vianney, Quebec 1971 31 42. wreck of Edmund Fitzgerald, Lake Superior 1975 29 43. PWA 737 crash, Cranbrook, BC 1978 42 44. Ocean Ranger sinks off Nfld 1982 84 45. Edmonton, Alberta tornado 1987 27 46. Air Ontario crash, Dryden, Ontario 1989 24 47. Johanna B and Capitaine Torres sink - Gulf of St. Lawrence 1989 39 48. Gold Bond Conveyor sinks off Yarmouth, N.S. 1993 33

77 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact I Table 4.2 Supplemental list: Weather-related disasters that occurred over more than a few days or possibly outside Canadian territory, or had a death toll less than 20. I

Disaster Year Deaths I

1. Two Quebec City fires 1845 23 2. loss of Franklin expedition, NWT 1847-48 129 H 3. Cape Breton hurricane sinks 1200 ships 1873 'untold' 4. great fire of Saint John, NB 1877 18-100 5. Titanic hist iceberg south of Grand Banks 1912 1513 I 6. longest Canadian summer heat wave 1936 780 7. 'Dirty Thirties' on Canadian Prairies 1930-39 ? 8. Lake St. Clair tornado 1846 16 I 9. Red River Flood, Manitoba 1950 1 10. freighter sinks in Lake Superior due to winds 1953 17 I 11. 60 hour snowstorm in Montreal with 70 cm snow 1969 15 12. Barrie, Ontario tornado 1985 12 13. trawler Hosanna sinks 400 km off Cape Race 1987 34 14. Protektor disappears 400 km east ôfNfld. 1991 33 15. Salvador Allende sinks 900 km south of Nfld. 1994 29

Vulnerability """"'"""'"-"""'-'---- ♦ DISASTER '4 ------Hazard Root Causes Social Forces Unsafe Conditions Flood Earthquake etc.

Figure 4.2 `Pressures' that Result in Disasters

78 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact I I

Flood i mmuuuoii I Accidents 0 Storm Earthquake IIIII II II Fire i------'------'- I Drought I I flfÎ^ll, i II^I ^ÎI^ I^^ ^I Cyclone I I I I! I Typhoon 113 I Epidemic M Chemical Accident Landslide ^ Civil Strife !III I IIÎ !!ICG!II!I!III;IIIIIIIIIIIIII!IIICllill I!L'l1iIIIIIIICIIIIIIIII!IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII I I I!III I I I Hurricane Volcano Displaced Persons IF Cold Wave I Insect Infestation Heat Wave Avalanche Food Shortage J Tsunami Famine Power Shortage

D 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percentage I % of Events n % Injured % Killed

I Figure 4.3 World Disasters, 1967 to 1991. As a result of 7,766 events, 3 billion people were injured and 7.5 million killed. Weather related hazards accounted for I 47% of the events, 91% of the injuries and 36% of the deaths. I Source: World Disasters Report, Int'l. Red Cross I I I 79 1

PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact

70

60

-la' 50

40 --... ,.. - o 1 _ o < 30 _ , :3 0 20 - ,- . , Heicopte s 10 1 ... :0 0 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 Year

Figure 4.4 Weather Related Aircraft Accidents. Solid icons are weather related. Cross-haired icons represent Human-Env-ironmental Interaction

Source: Transport Safety Board of Canada

80 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact Helicopter accidents have shown a much climatic factors, such as policies in the smaller trend. Workers Compensation Board. In recent I years, injuries have occurred at a rate of Raihvay Accidents between 1,500 and 2,000 per year. Costs to Significant numbers of weather related employers from these injuries can be very I railway accidents occur in Canada - over 120 large, and are worthy of further in 1990 - though there are few fatalities investigation. The largest number of injuries (Figure 4.5). The number of accidents from 1990-94 was in Quebec (56%) showed a sharp increase from 1988 to 1990, followed by Nova Scotia (15%) and Alberta for an as yet undetermined reason, with a (9%). subsequent decrease after 1991, though not I to the pre-1989 levels. 4.4.3 Time Lost at Work Figure 4.9 shows the number of hours lost at Marine Accidents work due to bad weather from 1981 to 1994, I Historically, many of Canada's worst adjusted to the number of employed disasters have been ocean based (Jones, Canadians in 1994. The curve shows a I 1995). Figure 4.6 shows the number of gradual decrease in time lost, in contrast weather related marine incidents from 1984 from what one would expect as a result of to 1993. The worst year was in 1990, as for the number of time loss injuries shown in I railway accidents, with almost 500 incidents. Figure 4.8. Further investigation is required Overall there has been a gradual decline of in order to understand this trend. debatable significance. A history of weather I related marine disasters is shown in Table 4.4.4 Extreme Heat 4.1. On average, 11 Canadians die annually from excessive heat and sun stroke (Etkin and I Ontario Road Accidents Maarouf, 1995). The number who suffer Figure 4.7 shows the 1992 statistics for heart attacks and other ailments as a result of weather-related Ontario road accidents, hot weather discomfort is unknown. I which accounts for about one-third of the However, total mortality from all causes (i.e. cases. There were 298 fatalities, over heat and non-heat related) shows significant 23,000 personal injuries and over 72,000 correlations with summer temperatures in I property damage cases. This does not Toronto and Montreal (Kalkstein and include minor incidents not reported to the Smoyer, 1993). For both cities heat waves police. The majority of the accidents early in the season are considered more I resulted from wet conditions, followed by damaging than those late in the season. ice, snow, slush and mud. Data from the t other provinces is not currently available, but Temperatures higher than 40°C have it is clear that weather related car accidents been experienced in all regions except the are of great significance. Maritimes and the Arctic. However, I prolonged heat stress is unusual outside 4.4.2 Number of Time Loss Injuries southwestern Ontario, southwestern Quebec Weather related time loss injuries result and southeastern Manitoba. Heat waves in f mainly from cold, and are shown in Figure summer are much shorter than cold waves in 4.8. Note the large increase after 1986, winter. Most hot, humid spells break within I which is likely to be a function of non- I 81 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact

140 120

-ta" 100 o 80 o <60 40 20 0 jejlt M:11:11-111jell= 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 Year

Accidents and Derailments I I Total Injuries Fatalities Figure 4.5 Railway Accidents, Weather Related Source: Transport Safety Board of Canada

82 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact I 1 I I I Cn 400 ^ 300 I U

1 Ô 200 O I Z I 100

I 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 . t Year Figure 4.6 Marine Incidents, I Weather Related I I I s I 83 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact I i I 80,000 I ^ -^--^

a) 607000 I U I %+-40,000 0 I 0 I Fatal Personal Injury Property Damage Type of Accident I Wet Loose Snow Slush I : Packed Snow I ce Mud t Figure 4.7 Weather Related Ontario Road Accidents, 1992 Source: Ontario Ministry of Transportation I I I I I 84 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact

11.1M1Wwww,

-- i1,I ii 1 19831984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Year

Cold Heat, Atmospheric and Environmental

Figure 4.8 No. of Time Loss Injuries, Population Adjusted to 1995 Source: Stats Canada PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact

I I ^ 1600 C1400 I ° 1200 ^1000 I U) 800 ^ 600 i 400 I = 200 0 I 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 Year I

Figure 4.9 Time Lost at Work Due to Bad Weather, Adjusted to no. employed in 1995 I Source: Stats Canada I I I I i t 86 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact

5 or 6 days. One memorable exception, 4.5 Economic Costs however, was Canada's worst heat wave in July, 1936. For a week and half, There are two fundamental costs associated temperatures exceeding 32°C prevailed from with natural hazards: southern Saskatchewan to the Ottawa 1. Adaptation costs - the costs related to Valley. High humidity added to the protecting ourselves from hazards (e.g. discomfort and 780 people died (Phillips, building codes or dams), and 1990). Forest fires consumed vast areas of 2. Impact, response and recovery costs - tinder-dry bush in Ontario and the Prairies. the costs that society incurs when our The heat buckled highways and softened protections fail. asphalt. Ground surface temperatures exceeded 65°C (Phillips, 1993). 4.5.1 Adaptation Costs Estimating adaptation costs is a difficult task, Extreme Heat Events (Phillips, 1990, and little research has been devoted to it. 1993): One preliminary estimation of Canadian 1. Canada's worst heat wave in July, 1936; adaptation costs is provided in Table 4.3. 780 people died and crops were blackened as a result of the extreme heat. The total shown in this table is likely 2. The highest temperature ever recorded in an underestimate. Canada was 45°C at Midale and Yellow Grass, Saskatchewan on July 5, 1937. 4.5.2 Costs due to Impacts 3. Starting on August 24, 1954, the longest Other Countries and World-wide consecutive string of hot days in Toronto Economically, natural hazards have shown (12 days) with a maximum temperature some dramatic trends. Figure 4.11 (source, at or above 30°C. Munich Re) shows impact data world-wide - 4. June 1961 was a record hot, dry month note the increase in recent decades. This on the Canadian Prairies. increase is due to (1) increases in population, 5. The 1980s was the warmest decade in (2) the migration of population towards Canada (and globally) with several more hazardous areas such as coasts, (3) extreme heat events. increases in wealth in many countries and (4) possibly an increase in the number of 4.4.5 Deaths hazardous events. Canadians occasionally die from atmospheric hazards, as shown in Figure 4.10. Note that The U.S. estimates that natural most deaths occur as a result of cold. By hazards cost them about $1 billion per week comparison, weather related fatalities due to (Hooke, B, personal communication), and car accidents in the province of Ontario some of the more significant events such as alone are much larger (see Figure 4.7). In Hurricane Andrew (which caused a number the past decade, the number of deaths from of insurance companies to go banlcrupt) and cold have shown a gradual decrease, while the Northridge earthquake have had massive those resulting from other atmospheric impacts. It is worth noting that Changnon et causes have remained fairly constant. How al. (1996), found that the 707 U.S. Statistics Canada assigns attribution of cause catastrophes in the $10-100 million range requires further investigation. from 1949-1994 have shown a continual

87 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA i Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact I I I

250 t 1---- ! ! 200 I -^-- ! i- -^- -^ --I - ^ -^--- -^ -- --r -f.. _ ^150 ii j ^! ^'^; .- ^ -I- - - Î - -I- - - - -I- - r - - -.- - r - - -^- - î î -I------r - - -^ - -- -- i I --^-^ - -;-; --=-- =3 100 --- - -^--^--- ; ^ ^ -- ï -' ------'--r-,----I -'--I--. -;--I- Î ------r----- z i -'- ` . 50 --'. -^-^--:-,^_^- -^s^---,--^ ; ------^--^--^-:--^--^- --,--^- ;-=-^_^- °- _-' 0 I 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 Year Heat -^- Cold t Exposure ---- Lightning Storms & Floods I Figure 4.10 Deaths from Natural Hazards, Population Adjusted to 1995 Source: Stats Canada I I I I 88 1 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact Table 4.3 Annual climate adaptation expenditures in Canada by economic sector. Source: I Burton, 1994. s Annual Expenditure Sector (billions $) I Transportation 1.7 Construction 4.0 Agriculture 1.3 I Forestry 0.4 Water 0.8 Household 5.3 I Emergency Preparedness 0.01 Weather Services 0.2 I Total 13.7

1 US5 billion

I ^ Economic losses > 110 55 (1995 values) ... Trend ^ 50 Insured losses I 45 (1995 values) _ Trend 40 © Munich Re 1996 '' . 35

. ..• I . ^• ^ .• .•' ♦ I ...... '^. ..

.•^`'^ ..^` I ...... 0 I 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 Figure 4.11 Economic and insured losses with trends. Source: Munich RE, 1995. I ' 89 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact increasing trend, not related to weather and average $1.4 million/year. Figure 4.16 fluctuations, but to changing populations or shows a partial inventory of costs by hazard targets. Disasters costing more than $100 from several of the companies. This data set million have not shown the temporal is very incomplete, and this figure is only increase, but correlate well with weather provided for illustration purposes. The most factors - not with population shifts. The costly hazard was 'wet snow+high wind', the Kobe earthquake in Japan set a new standard total cost of which occurred due to one in the potential costs of natural hazards, with event at Vegreville and Lloydminster, a price tag of around $100 billion (this Alberta. This two-day storm destroyed 108 number still varies quite a bit, depending steel transmission towers, 300 wood upon the source). Table 4.4 shows a U.S. transmission structures, and more than 3000 summary of recent costs due to natural wood distribution poles. In addition more hazards. than 250 miles of conductor had to be replaced. From the data provide, tornadoes 4.5.3 Economic Costs to Canada (numbering 8) come second in terms of cost, from Natural Hazards though they were all from the Ontario Hydro Forest Fires list. Undoubtedly the prairies have Forest fires can have a direct impact due to experienced damaged towers from the loss of a natural resource, though it is tornadoes, even though the information was unclear how to account for them as they are not available. now considered an essential part of the natural ecological cycle. Figure 4.12 shows 4.5.4 Federal Payments by the area of forests burned in Canada from Emergency Preparedness 1986-95. Note that 1995 was by far the Canada to the Provinces worst year with over 7 million hectares Figure 4.17 shows payments made by EPC burnt, followed by 1989. The data supports to the provinces over the period 1970-1996. an upward trend in area burnt, a statistic Audited totals are $425 million ($16 related to weather, but also to decisions million/year) while the EPC payouts come to made regarding fire fighting. All provinces $263 million ($10 million/year), in 1995 incur costs related to fire management, dollars. These numbers do not include 19 which are shown in Figure 4.13. From the events not yet settled and costs after March period 1985-1995, Ontario spent over $800 31, 1996, and therefore the prairie hail million, more than any other province. disasters and Quebec floods of July 1996 are Annual fire management costs are shown in not included. A rough estimate of federal Figure 4.14. Costs peak in 1995 at over costs due to the Quebec flood is $280 million $450 million. (Chris Tucker, personal communication).

Hydro Companies Figure 4.18 shows how these costs The provincial hydro companies were are distributed by province. Quebec has contacted in order to find impacts due to received the most support (around $134 hazards. Ontario Hydro provided the best million in 1995 dollars- which amounts to documentation, but only of the larger events, 32% of all payouts - and which may increase the cost of which are shown in Figure 4.15. to $414 million if the Saguenay floods are Annual costs range from zero to $3 million, included), Manitoba the next with $83

90 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact

Table 4.4 Weather related natural disasters in the U. S. where the cost exceeded $1 Billion US (1980-1995) — ordered by economic cost. (Source: NCDC)

Economic cost Event Date ($ billions u.s.) Lives lost Drought/Heat Wave Summer 1988 40 5,000 to 10,000 Hurricane Andrew August 1992 25 58 Drought/Heat Wave June-Sept. 1980 20 1,300 Midwest Flooding Summer 1993 15 to 20 48 Hurricane Hugo Sept. 1989 7.1 57 Texas, Louisiana, May 1995 >3 27 Mississippi Flooding California Flooding Jan-March 1995 >3 27 Southeast Ice Storm Feb. 1994 >3 9 Storm/Blizzard March 1993 >3 270 Hurricane Opal October 1995 2-3 21 Florida Freeze Dec. 1983 2 0 Hurricane Allicia Aug. 1983 2 21 Hurricane Iniki September 1992 1.8 6 Hurricane Bob August 1991 1.5 18 Hurricane Juan Oct.-Nov. 1985 1.5 63 Nor'easter 1992 December 1992 1 to 2 19 Hurricane Elena Aug.-Sept. 1985 1.3 4 California Wildfires Fall 1993 >1 4 Texas Flooding October 1994 1 19 Tropical Storm Alberta July 1994 1 32 Drought/Heat Wave Sununer 1993 1 unknown TOTAL approx. 115 7,000 to 12,000?

91 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact I I I

N I cu 87000 ------N 7 ^ 000 ------I ô 6,000 - - -- - r- - ---L ------I - --- ^ - ^ - ^ - ^ É-É% 5, 000 el ^ ^ I b - - - - _ _^ ô 4,000 ------,--,3 ,000 I I F ------; ------; ------i ----: I 86 88 90 92 94 96 Year I

Figure 4.12 Forest Fires in Canada, t Area Burned Source: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre I t I t I t 92 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS DT CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact

PEI NS 1 Nfld NB YT Man Nwr 1 Que Sask Alta BC Ont

0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1 Cost (millions $) Figure 4.13 Fire Management Costs, 1985-1995, Adjusted to 1995 $ 1 Source: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre

1 1 1 1 93 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact I I I 500 I .-^ 450 I

I I 200 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 Year 1 Figure 4.14 Fire Management Costs Adjusted to 1995 $ t Source: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre I I I I I 94 I I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact I I I I 2.5 ^ 2 I o 1.5

-^ 1 ô U 0.5

I 0 I 91 92 93 94 95 96 1 Year Figure 4.15 Weather Related Ontario Hydro Costs, Adjusted to 1995$ I Source: Ontario Hydro 1 I t t I 95 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact

thunderstorms ithgnderstoims oçk out 20 tiraeformers, Yarmouth; N.S. . . lightning

weather 1 -E5 (13 flood C15 tornado evb' 'It's ( 0' ntgri) I , I sleet

wet snow 1 'event

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 Cost (millions $)

Figure 4.16 A List of Weather Related Costs to Hydro Companies, Adjusted to 1995$. Sources: Ontario Hydro, B.C. Hydro and Power Authority, Nfld. Light and Power Co, Climatic Perspectives. Important Note - this is a very incomplete list.

96 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact I I I $300,000,000 I No. of accounts not settled in the following years: $250,000,000 -[- 1986(1), 1988(3), 1990(2), 1991(1), 1992(1), I 1993(3), 1994(1), 1995(7). {9, $200,000,000 ^ Saguenay -estimate-around- $254 million (?^------I Manitoba floods (May, 1997) around $200 million (?^ ------Ô $150,000,000 - I F7- I Q $100,000,000 t $50,000,000 - $0 1-' , M u , ^ _ _ _ _ ^ Jl 70171 73/74 76/77 79/80 82/83l 85/86 88/89 91 /92 94/95 t Year t Figure 4.17 EPC Payouts from 1975 to 1995, adjusted to 1995/96 $ t Source: Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC) I t I I I 97 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA t Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact I t I I ONT GNWT No. daims Not;Resolved:; I PEI GNWT(1),; YT(1), SASK(1), NFLD(2), NB(2) YT BC(3), ALTA(5), MAN(3), QU^E(1) I I . , ^ i NS I I SASK I NFLD BC NB I ALTA MAN I QUE I 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Payout (millions $) 1 Figure 4.18 EPC Payouts by Province from 1975 to 1995, adjusted I I to Fiscal Year 1995/96 $ Source: Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC) I I 1 I I 98 ' PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact million (20%) while Ontario has received the B.C. costs from 1990-95 were for flood least ($75,000). Clearly, natural hazards claims. In Alberta, of the $260 million (1995 point to the importance of federalism for dollar) cost from 1986-95, 89% was for some provinces. flood and 9% for drought.

Figure 4.19 shows payouts by hazard Insured Costs type. Floods have cost the most, by far, with Summaries of costs to the Insurance industry audited totals over $300 million and federal are provided by the Insurance Bureau of payouts of $150 million (73% of the total Canada. Figure 4.23 shows the cost of payout for disasters in unadjusted dollars) multiple major payouts, from 1983-1994 while storm and fire rank second and third (Source: Insurance Bureau of Canada). This with about 11% each. The Saguenay data does not include the cost of events less disaster makes floods even more prominent than about $4 million, and therefore the true in comparison. costs are much greater than those shown in this figure. Hail has resulted in the most 4.5.5 Provincial Costs payouts (over $450 million), followed by Crop Insurance tornadoes, flood, storm and wind (Figure Provinces incur costs due to crop damage 4.24). There appear to have been 9 events in from hail, flood, drought and a variety of 1995 (Alan Pang, personal communication) other hazards. Figure 4.20 shows the which include significant damage from flood, average annual provincial costs. hail, thunderstorms, wind and Hurricane Saskatchewan has incurred the greatest Hortense. Two' hailstorms in Alberta and a costs, over $130 million per year (1995 thunderstorm in Ontario each estimated to dollars). Crop losses for Manitoba run cost over $25 million in insurance payouts. around $30 million per year, and are detailed Hortense is expected to cost about $3 in Figure 4.21, which shows the costs by million. In July, 1996 hailstorms in Calgary hazard. Drought has had the most impact in and Winnipeg are estimated to cost around Manitoba, almost $400 million 1995 dollars $295 million in total (Alan Pang, personal from 1966-1994, followed by excess communication). The largest single insured moisture, hail, heat, and frost. Other hazards disaster in Canada was the Calgary hailstorm are much smaller. Costs vary greatly from of 1991, which cost around $380 million. year to year, as shown in Figure 4.22a-d. The insured costs of the Saguenay floods are The largest annual expenditure occurred in currently estimated at $350-400 million. Saskatchewan, over $550 million 1995 dollars. 4.5.6 Municipalities Very little information is readily available on Disaster Financial Assistance costs to municipalities. A few statistics All provinces also have disaster financial follow, using unadjusted dollars: assistance programs. Data on these costs is very incomplete and requires more research. Regional Municipalie of Ottawa-Carleton Of the $93 million 1995 dollars paid by the Winter 1993-94: $2.5 million due to a record Manitoba Disaster Assistance Board from number of water services freezing. 1974-95, 73% was for flood, 18% for fires, Winter 1995-96: Unknown cost due to 7% for tornadoes and the remainder for freeze/thaw cycles causing potholes. miscellaneous causes. All of the $74 million

99 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA t Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact I t I

S n owsto rm I I Hurricane I Windstorm Sleet/Ice I Fire I Storm Flood , I 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 Amount (millions $) I Audited Total E PC Payout I

Figure 4.19 EPC Payouts by Disaster Type from 1975 to 1995 (Unadjusted $) I Source: Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC) t I t I I 100 1 t PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA t Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact t I I NFLD N.S. I P.E.I. I Ua) N . B . I r- B.C C) Que. Man. I Ont. Alta. I Sask. I 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 I Amount (millions $) Figure 4.20 Provincial Crop Insurance Payments. Average Paid per Year (1995 $). I Programs began as early as 1959 in Manitoba and as late as 1974 in NB. The average annual payment is $328 million. Sources: British Columbia Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Alberta Hall and t Crop Insurance Corporation, Ontario Ministry of Agri-food and Rural Affairs, Manitoba I Crop Insurance Corporation, New Brunswick Crop Insurance 1 t t t I 101 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact I I I

Flooding t Winter Kill Excess Moisture (Sprouting) Overwinter (snow) t Adverse Weather 0 Wind I Frost Heat I Hail I Excess Moisture 1 I Drought I I 0 100 200 300 400 Cost (millions $) I Figure 4.21 Manitoba - Crop Loss by Cause, 1966 to 1994 (1995 $). Total loss = $865 million; Average loss = $30 million / year I I I I I I 102 I 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA 1 Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact

$200,000,000

$150,000,000

-r,5 $100,000,000 0 o

$50,000,000 1

$0 " ' ! 1 1959/60 1964/65 1969/70 1974/75 1979/80 1984/85 1989/90 1994/95 Year 1 Figure 4.22a Manitoba Crop Insurance Payments (1995$) 1 1 1 1 1 103 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact

$600,000,000

1 . , , _I I .I. _ I _ • ; , 1 r r • i,-. ; I , 1 , :

I, ; ; • . ' . $500,000,000 , : . , , , 1 • ; , . , : , 1 • , ' • : , , , ; : 1 - -1 I I ,': - I : • ' .• : : : ; I ' ; . • I I i 1 I $400,000,000 . . . , , ' .. . ■ ' ' r 1 - -:-- - , , , • „ . , i . , . . , . • ! 1 175 $300,000,000 . . , . . , , • ! ., , , I - T - 1 t , • I i I , . 1 1; I I! , 1

. , i $200,000,000 ! I

II ., . . . •, „ i , : ; , . , , . • • , • , , . : $100,000,000 : I , , • I ! ' ' nIgfrig . i , . . I I -I, i-: ' ; • , I • I i ! I '1 i $0 _ . , . • 1961/62 1966/67 19 t' 1 //2 1976/771 '9i31/82 1986119911/87 1/92 Year

Figure 4.22b Saskatchewan Crop Insurance Payments (1995$)

104 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact I I

I $80)000,000 I I $60,000,000 I D $40,000,000 o I U

I $20,000,000 H

I 1968/69 1972173 1976/77 1980/81 1984/85 1988/89 1992/93 Year I Figure 4.22c Quebec Crop Insurance Payments (1995$) I I I t I 105 1 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact I I I

$200,000,000 I • • ! ( .

J- •___^_ I

. . ' • ! . $150 ,000,000 I r1 ^-+-^---^-^-1---i--.----'--'----+ ï- -^- --i --i -^--^--^--I- i -, ^ ^ I; ! I ^ $100,000,000 o U I . , $50;000,000 - - I '; ; ;;; - - I

Î $0 I . I I ! . I I I I . . . I 1967/68 1972/73 1977/78 1982/83 1987/88 1992/93 I Year Figure 4.22d Ontario Crop Insurance Payments (1995$) I t I I i I 106 I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS LN CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact

1996 - $920 700 million j",600 Catary Storml 2 500 - 0 -- 400 E

- - co 200 - 0 100 - 0 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 Year

Figure 4.23 Weather Related Insurance Costs from Major Multiple Payouts (1995$). Source: Insurance Bureau of Canada

107 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact I t I I Wind t Storm I

Flooding I I Tornadoes I Hail I

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 Costs (thousands $) I Figure 4.24 Weather Related Insurance Costs from Major Multiple Payouts (1995$). Source: Insurance Bureau of Canada I t t I I 108 I I PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA I Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact Spring 1993: Deep frost from the winter can also be very large, if not so dramatic caused a soil slip at a cost of $400,000. A (drought is a slow onset disaster, as P preventative maintenance program was compared to flood which is a rapid onset established at a cost of $40,000 per year. disaster). For example, Wheaton and Arthur (1989) estimated the cost of the 1988 I City of St. Catherines drought at $1.8 billion (unadjusted), or 0.4% They have recently experienced a increased of real GDP. Other droughts of significance number of intense, high volume are: 1978/79 ($2.5 billion), 1980 ($2.5 n thunderstorms (since 1994), resulting in billion), 1984 ($1 billion), 1985 ($50 million) flooding problems. One event that flooded and 1990 ($96 million) - [Note... these cost hundreds of basements occurred during the estimates need further tracking in order to I night of June 10/11, 1996. confirm their reliability.]

City of Calgary It is likely that costs associated with I 1991 hail/rainstorm: City damage of $1.5 hazards will increase in the future, as a result million of which $1.2 million was insured. of climate change. Natural hazards and Spring 1995: Severe river flooding with disasters are expensive, but not inevitable. I damages of $350,000 to city property such With appropriate planning to reduce as parks, pathways and bridges. vulnerability, their social and economic I A city report identified the expected impact on Canadians can be reduced. damages from flooding in Calgary due to a riverine flood (Table 4.5). I 4.7 Caveats - Please Read 4.6 Summary This paper is incomplete for a number of I reasons: Understanding the cumulative costs of 1. Data on the social and economic various hazards would be an important impacts from natural hazards are I synthesis. However, there have been almost frequently not available. no studies that provide such a summary, and 2. Often the data are archived or stored in this analysis is not at a stage where it can be such a way that it was not practically or I attempted. Clearly, the importance of floods economically feasible to obtain them, has been shown and highlighted by the recent given the resources currently available I Saguenay disaster. The costs of droughts for this work.

I Table 4.5 Expected flood damage in millions $ (1993) due to a riverine flood

I Return Period (yrs) 25 50 100 Elbow River $46.3 $73.9 $93.3 J Bow River $5.6 $20.8 $38.5 I I 109 PART 2: NATURAL HAZARDS IN CANADA Chapter 4: Social and Economic Impact

There are holes in the data resulting from the Kalkstein, L.S. and Somyer, K.E. (1993). The facts that (a) not all relevant organisations impact of climate change on human health: (there are many of them) have yet been some international implications. Eperientia, 49(11), pp. 969-979. contacted, and (b) not all contacted organisations have responded. Munich Re. (1995). Annual review of natural catastrophes, 1995. Munich Re Insurance Company document, 15 p.

References Phillips, D. (1990). The climates of Canada. Supply and Services Canada, No. En56-1/1990E, 176 Blaike, P., Cannon, T., Davis, I. and Wisner, B. PP. (1994). At Risk, Natural Hazards, People 's and Disasters. Routledge Vulnerability Phillips, D. (1993). The day Niagara Falls ran dry! Publishers, London, 284 p. Canadian weather facts and trivia. Key Porter Books, Ltd., Toronto, Canada, 226 pp. Burton, I. (1994). Costs of Atmospheric Hazards. In: Proceedings of a Workshop on Improving Wheaton, E. E. and Arthur, L. M., 1989. Responses to Atmospheric Extremes: The Role Environmental and Economic Impacts of the of Insurance and Compensation. McCulloch, J. 1988 Drought, Vol. 1. SRC Publication No. E- and Etkin, D. (eds.). pp. 2-1 to 2-11. 2330-4-E-89.

Changnon, S.A., Changnon, D. C., Fosse, R., Hoganson, D.C., Roth Sr., R.J. and Totsch, J. (1996). Impacts and responses of the weather insurance industry to recent weather extremes. Final report to the University Corporation for

Atmospheric Research. CRR - 41, Changnon Climatologist, Mahomet, Illinois, May.

Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC) (1996). Natural Hazards. National Atlas of Canada.

Etkin, D. and Maarouf. A. (1995). An Overview of Natural Hazards in Canada. In, Proceedings of a Tri-Lateral Workshop on Natural Hazards, Merrickville, Feb. 11-14, 1995, Environment Canada, pp. 1-63 to 1-92.

Hooke, B. (personal communication). NOAA, 1995.

Insurance Bureau of Canada (1996). Environmental Scan: Analysis of IBC 's External Environment (January, 1996). Toronto.

Jones, R. L. (1991). Canadian disasters: An historical survey. Natural Hazards 5: 43-51.

Jones, R. L. (personal communication). Environment Canada, 1995.

110 I PART 3: AN APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM I OF OCCURRENCE DEFINITION I 5.0 Occurrence Definition i by Soren E. Brun and David Etkin 5.1 Introduction ...... 111 5.2 Ramifications of the Present Approach to Occurrence Definition ...... 111 5.3 Concerns About Current Occurrence Definition ...... 114 5.3.1 "Catastrophe" ...... 114 5.3.2 Time Delineation ...... 115 I 5.3.3 Reference Frame ...... 115 5.4 Defining Atmospheric Occurrences: A Proposal ...... 115 I 5.4.1 The Space-Time Proposal ...... 116 5.4.2 The Barrie-Leamington Case Study ...... 118 5.5 Summary and Recommendations ...... 119 I Reference ...... 119 I I I I D I 1 I I I PART 3: OCCURRENCE DEFINITION I Chapter 5: Occurrence Definition 5.0 Occurrence Definition I by Soren E. Brun and David Etkin 5.1 Introduction I Incorporating concepts from meteorology has the potential to make occurrence definition more consistent, and therefore less subject to dispute. This would provide benefits to both the insurance and reinsurance communities both in terms of dispute resolution and having a clearer t concept of what is covered by reinsurance treaties. Within the insurance/reinsurance industry, 5.2 Ramifications of the Present I the criteria for the definition of occurrences Approach to Occurrence are of considerable importance. Occurrence Definition definition, here, does not imply determining I the physical characteristics which define a Most current treaties between reinsurers and particular incident, as it would in the classical insurers define occurrences using a temporal sense (e.g. a tornado can be defined as a scale (e.g. the 72 hour clause). This defines I rapidly spinning column of air extending occurrences by precise periods of time. A down from the base of a thunderhead). catastrophe treaty typically states that the Rather, the term is used by the insurance reinsurance company will provide cover in I industry to determine whether a catastrophe excess of the retention limit for each and is composed of single or multiple loss every loss occurrence. "Loss occurrence" is occurrences. Such decisions, and the I then defined within the contract. An methods of making them, are crucial, for example from the London Insurance and different interpretations can have Reinsurance Market Association (LIRMA) substantially different financial ramifications I defines "loss occurrence" as all individual for the insurance and reinsurance industries. losses arising directly and indirectly out of one catastrophe. The clause limits the This section examines how scientists, I duration and extent of each individual loss and specifically meteorologists, view occurrence to the number of hours stipulated occurrences. First, the implications of the in the clause (e.g. 72). These clauses usually present system of occurrence definition from I apply only to hurricanes, typhoons, the reinsurers and insurers' point of view will windstorms, rainstorms, hailstorms and/or be stated using simple examples. Second, tornadoes. t we will point out some of the reasons why differences of opinion arise under the current Insurance companies (insurer) contractual agreements. Third, an expanded transfer some of their risk to reinsurance I method for occurrence definition will be companies (reinsurer) by buying a policy explored. Since it is relatively ("reinsurance treaty") from them. One such straightforward to define occurrences in type of reinsurance treaty is a catastrophe I cases of hydrological and geophysical treaty, which limits the insurance companies hazards, this section considers only loss in the event of a natural catastrophe atmospheric occurrences. I such as windstorm or earthquake. The I insurer will aggregate all of the individual 111 I PART 3: OCCURRENCE DEFINITION Chapter 5: Occurrence Definition losses from that catastrophic event or different occurrence definitions, two "occurrence" that they have paid under the scenarios will be presented (see Table 5.1). policies that they have issued, and the insurer retains a predetermined amount (a deductible With scenario A, assume that a $25 commonly called their "net retention"), with million incident occurred on July 31 and a the reinsurer paying the amount of loss $10 million incident occurred on August 2 — which exceeds this deductible. within 72 hours of each other. If these were deemed one loss occurrence, gross loss Depending on the type and would total $35 million. Therefore, the magnitude of the catastrophe and the way in insurer's liability, or share, would be $15 which the contract is drawn, each party is million (i.e. the net retention), and the responsible for a certain share of the insured reinsurer is responsible for the remainder up loss. A catastrophe reinsurance program to $185 million — in this case, $20 million. defines how much of the insured loss the insurer will retain (the "net retention" or If, in contrast, scenario A was deductible amount), and how much the deemed as two loss occurrences, then there reisurer will pay ("treaty limit") after the would be two gross losses (i.e. $25 and $10 amount of the net retention has been million) and two net retentions would apply. exceeded. Therefore, the insurer is responsible for the first $15 million for both occurrences. For However, depending on how the the July 31 occurrence, the insurer would catastrophe is defined (i.e. as single or cover $15 million, and the reinsurer, $10 multiple loss occurrence), the parties' million. For the August 2 occurrence, the shares of the insured loss can change insurer would incur the full insured loss (i.e. significantly. It may be more advantageous $10 million) as they did not exceed the net (i.e. paying a smaller amount of the insured retention. Hence, in total, the insurer would loss) for the insurer if a catastrophe is cover $25 million of the insured loss, and the labelled as a single loss occurrence. In other reinsurer, $10 million. cases, it may be more advantageous for the reinsurer if the catastrophe was deemed to be With scenario B, assume again that a single loss occurrence. catastrophe happened on two separate days. However, insured losses of the July 31 An example of how these issues can occurrence totalled $150 million, while on arise is as follows. Assume that an insurer August 2, the insured losses were $125 has purchased a catastrophic reinsurance million. Again, if this was deemed as one program of $185 million (treaty limit) in loss occurrence, gross losses would total excess of $15 million (insurers net $275 million. Because there was only one retention), with the standard hours clause. loss occurrence, then only one net retention In the event of a catastrophe, the reinsurer is applicable. The insurer would cover the will cover all loss occurrences in excess of loss for the first $15 million (i.e. the net $15 million (i.e. net retention) up to a retention). However, since the reinsurer is maximum of $185 million (i.e. the treaty only responsible for the losses in excess of limit). To illustrate how the insured loss is the net retention (i.e. $15 million) up to the shared between insurer and reinsurer under limit of the program coverage (i.e. $185 million), their share of the losses would be

112 I PART 3: OCCURRENCE DEFINITION I Chapter 5: Occurrence Definition I Table 5.1 Example payouts for single and multiple occurrences. I Scenario A (Low Magnitude) Scenario B (High Magnitude) Occurrence Damage Occurrence Damage

I July 31 $25M July 31 $150M t Aug 2 $10M Aug 2 $125M 1 Occurrence: Total Insured Loss $35M 1 Occurrence: Total Insured Loss $275M. I Party: Payment: Total: Party: Payment: Total: Insurer Up to Net Retention Insurer Up to Net Retention $15M +$75M I and Remaining = $15,000,000 Beyond Program $90,000,000 I Coverage Reinsurer Excess of Net $35M - $15M Reinsurer Excess of Net $185M Retention Up to = Retention Up to = I Program Coverage $20,000,000 Program Coverage $185,000,000 2 Occurrences: Two Losses, $25 and $10M 2 Occurrences: Two Losses, $30 and $245M

I Party: Payment: Total: Party: Payment: Total:

Insurer Up to Net Retention First occurrence: Insurer Up to Net Retention First occurrence: I $15M for Both Policies $15M for Both Policies

Second occurrence: Second occurrence: I $10M $15M

I $25,000,000 $30,000,000

Reinsurer Excess of Net First occurrence: Reinsurer Excess of Net First occurrence: I Retention Up to $10M Retention Up to $135M Program Coverage Program Coverage for Both Policies Second occurrence: for Both Policies Second occurrence: I $0M $110M

I $10,000,000 $245,000,000 I I 113 PART 3: OCCURRENCE DEFINITION Chapter 5: Occurrence Definition the full limit of the program coverage (i.e. existed, and to provide limits to the time $185 million) as the losses totalled $275 span of occurrences. million. The insurer is responsible for all remaining insured losses above the program coverage (i.e. an additional $75 million). 5.3 Concerns About Current This excess loss is due to insufficient Occurrence Definition coverage. Therefore, in total, the insurer would cover $90 million and the reinsurer Quandaries with occurrence definition stems would cover $185 million. from both the contract wording and how catastrophes are viewed by the insurance Conversely, if scenario B had been industry. The dilemmas with contract deemed two loss occurrences, then each wording are three-fold. would be treated separately — one of $150 1. Wordings such as "catastrophe" do not million and another of $125 million. Again, provide a physically based definition of two net retentions are applicable and the an occurrence — in fact, the word itself insurer would cover the insured losses below can imply both single and multiple the net retention for each occurrence. In this occurrences. double-occurrence scenario, neither 2. The time delineation in the hours clause occurrence exceeded the amount of program is arbitrary and has no physical coverage. Therefore, the insurance company connection with the actual duration of would cover combined losses below the net catastrophic occurrences. This may, for retentions (i.e. $30 million). The reinsurer, instance, lead to the splitting of a single on the other hand, would cover all remaining occurrence into multiple occurrences if it losses (i.e. $245 million). lasted longer than the prescribed time period (e.g. 72 hours). Therefore, with these two scenarios, 3. As discussed below, the reference frame whether the catastrophe is defined as one or in which the insurance/reinsurance two occurrences dramatically alters the industry views catastrophes may lead to shares of losses for the insurer and reinsurer. complications when determining the In scenario A (a low magnitude catastrophe), number of occurrences. it is more advantageous for the insurer if the catastrophe is defined as one occurrence, and As a result, there have been instances better for the reinsurer if it is deemed two. where disagreement has arisen regarding the In scenario B (a high magnitude number of loss occurrences. catastrophe), the reinsurer benefits if the catastrophe is defined as only one loss 5.3.1 "Catastrophe" occurrence. It is more advantageous for the The word catastrophe can imply both single insurer only if the catastrophe is deemed as and multiple occurrences. It neither defines occurrences. two the physical, spatial dimensions of actual perils nor implies (or denies) possible causal Though treaty wording can lead to links between individual perils. For example, differences of opinion regarding occurrence if insured losses were the product of a series the hours clause was originally definition, of occurrences on the same day (i.e. to rnado designed for flexibility to aid the insurer or — families or multiple hailstorms), these perils reinsurer in cases where insufficient coverage

114 PART 3: OCCURRENCE DEFINITION Chapter 5: Occurrence Definition

could be viewed as one or more occurrences. 5.3.3 Reference Frame The catastrophe could be considered as: The reference frame in which catastrophes 1. the total area damaged by the are viewed can lead to differences of occurrences (i.e. a single occurrence); or opinion. In general, there are two frames of 2. each of the damage swaths produced by reference in which to view catastrophes. In a the individual storms (i.e. multiple fixed frame (or point-scale) of reference, a occurrences). stationary observer views an object moving past it — for instance, a hitchhiker, standing If contracts included both a on the side of the road, watches cars pass physically based, spatial description of the him. In a moving frame of reference, the hazards covered and some stipulation observer is moving and watches stationary regarding linkages between perils, it could objects move past — that is, the driver of a make the definition of a loss occurrence moving car appears to be "stationary", while more robust. the hitchhiker, standing on the side of the road, appears to be in motion. 5.3.2 Time Delineation Contracts do not usually deal with time in a The 72-hours clause can link together way that unambiguously define cause and all occurrences which pass through a city effect. Cause and effect require relating during that period. For example, over any physical processes that exist in space as well given three-day period, a city may experience as time, to specific occurrences. Therefore two or more distinct cold fronts that produce the absence of spatial criteria in the contracts damaging conditions. A fixed-frame of compounds ambiguity. A result of this is reference would treat all losses stemming that multiple occurrences may arbitrarily be from these cold fronts as one occurrence, assigned to a single cause. For example, two even if they were not produced by the same storms occurring within 72 hours of each weather systems. A moving frame of other may be lumped together and deemed reference would treat them as separate one occurrence, even if spatial analysis occurrences. Depending on the frame of suggests that their link is tenuous. On the reference in which a catastrophe is other hand, one storm lasting more than 72 viewed, the definition of an occurrence hours could be deemed as multiple can have radically different conclusions. occurrences. Therefore, a time-delineating clause can deem two occurrences as a single one if they occur within the stipulated time 5.4 Defining Atmospheric period; while single occurrences can be Occurrences: A Proposal deemed as separate if they lasted longer than that stipulated. Treaties between reinsurers and insurers could be made more physically based. Such Therefore, a time-delineating clause treaties could include appropriate space-time can deem two occurrences as a single one if scales, links between occurrences, and they occur within the stipulated time period; defined reference frames. They could also while linked occurrences can be deemed as provide a standardised procedure for separate (in this case they could be one) if defining occurrences. However; although a they were differentiated by a time period physically based wording would be more greater than that stipulated.

115 PART 3: OCCURRENCE DEFINITION I Chapter 5: Occurrence Definition I quantitative and deal specifically with the This figure serves as the basis for perils themselves, there will always be a allowing treaties to deal more quantitatively certain amount of qualitative judgement. with atmospheric phenomena by considering I Therefore, the new method proposed here their temporal and spatial dimensions, the does not provide a cure-all solution. appropriate frame of reference and the physical link between occurrences. For 1 The proposed method defines instance, a cold front, or synoptic scale atmospheric occurrences through the use of occurrence, can produce tornado families. A temporal and spatial scales. It can synoptic scale specification in a contract t simultaneously address space-time scales, would provide the temporal and spatial linkages between occurrences, and dimensions of the catastrophe and implicitly references frames. The atmospheric sciences attribute the tornadoes to a common cause. I commonly define the temporal and spatial scales of atmospheric occurrences as shown 5.4.1 The Space-Time Proposal in Figure 5.1. The x-axis - a logarithmic From the plot, it can be seen that there are I time scale - represents the duration of the four general categories of atmospheric atmospheric occurrence, not the amount of motion. Most treaties could ignore the time it takes to pass through a location. The planetary scale and microscale. Planetary I y-axis - a logarithmic space scale - scales indirectly encompasses all atmospheric describes the length/diameter of a feature, motion, since large-scale circulation patterns I not the amount of areal damage. eventually determine local weather conditions and serve to link all atmospheric From this figure, atmospheric occurrences. An example would be to define I phenomena can be grouped according to the all damage caused by blizzards in Canada following scales of motion: microscale, during one winter as a single occurrence. mesoscale, synoptic scale, and planetary Microscale occurrences (e.g. microbursts, I scale. Each scale is associated with well- downbursts, dustdevils,...,etc.) are extremely established time and space dimensions. For localised and are usually linked to other instance, synoptic scale occurrences last for a mesoscale or synoptic scale occurrences. I period between hours to days and encompass Because these are localised, insuring for the regions ranging in 'size from 50 km in microscale would consider, for example, diameter to 1000 km. However, some each gust of wind in a windstorm as a I ambiguity and overlap (i.e. fuzzy boundaries) separate occurrence. Therefore, given that add uncertainty to scale delineations. the two extreme scales are not useful, one need only consider mesoscale and synoptic I Also included on this figure are a scales of motion. number of atmospheric occurrences. Each falls roughly into the four scale categories. Treaties and contracts could deal I On this plot space and time, in relation to with mesoscale and synoptic-scale atmospheric occurrences, are directly occurrences. For instance, instead of I related. That is, occurrences associated with insuring a catastrophe for a period of 72 large spatial dimensions also have the longest hours, the contract could insure synoptic durations, and vice versa. scale or mesoscale occurrences. I I 116 I M M M ^ M = M M M M M M M M M M M M M

^------T-- 10 ^ + Long Waves ,------,' Planetary Sca1e

^----!------6 ^ n'n Midlatitude Cyclones 10 - I Synoptic Scale

5 i + Hurricanes and Tropical Storms 10 + Fronts and front^ thunderstorm complexes ------^ ------n'n quall Lines ^ 4 11 ^ L ------'------0 1-11 10 - ^ ^ Mesoscale

+ Thunderstorms W 10 3 i ^ ------^ ----^ + Hailstorm -Microscale 2 10 Tn os ^ Figure 5.1: Temporal and Spatial ; Scales of Motion for Atmospheric Phenome b ^ 10 ^

` I I I -^--

Space 10 102 1 03 10 4 105 106 107 108 109 Minutes Hours Day Week Month Year /Time Duration of Occurrence (Seconds) PART 3: OCCURRENCE DEFINITION I Chapter 5: Occurrence Definition I • Mesoscale - if only a mesoscale were multiple severe thunderstorms (mesoscale included, insurance would cover only occurrences) linked by a single synoptic- losses stemming from mesoscale scale occurrence - a mid-latitude cyclone - I occurrences. If a single, isolated which passed through this region. On May thunderstorm produced both damaging 30, the warm front east of the mid-latitude hail and a tornado, then the damage cyclone swept through south-western I would be deemed as one occurrence, as Ontario producing severe thunderstorms and they are linked by a single mesoscale the Leamington hailstorm and tornado. On occurrence. If two isolated May 31, the cold front extending south-west I thunderstorms occurred - one produced from the same mid-latitude cyclone swept hail and the other a tornado, then there through the same region producing the would be two occurrences. Barrie, Orangeville and Grand Valley I • Synoptic scale - synoptic-scale wording tornadoes. would, for example, cover all damage stemming from thunderheads associated In the treaties enforced at the time, as t with a single cold front extending from a these occurrences occurred within 72 hours synoptic scale storm. If two or more of one another, reinsurers and insurers damaging cold fronts passed through a differed on whether these constituted one or I region, they would be deemed as two occurrences. Furthermore the wording individual occurrences. in the clauses was not 100% consistent I which lead to these different interpretations There are some potential pit-falls (Reiner, personal communication) with this methodology. Unlike mesoscale Arbitration resulted in contradictory I phenomena which are isolated and of short conclusions - these incidences had been durations, synoptic occurrences, such as the defined as both one occurrence and two mid-latitude cyclone, can travel the entire occurrences. I east-west distance of Canada. In a case like this all damage nation-wide stemming from If the proposed method had been one mid-latitude cyclone could be deemed as used, few disputes would have arisen. For I one occurrence. instance, on the synoptic scale, these would have been deemed one occurrence, the 5.4.2 The Barrie-Leamington tornadoes and hail were all produced by a t Case Study single synoptic scale system. They were Taking the Barrie-Leamington occurrences linked by a common cause - the mid-latitude cyclone. A mesoscale contract would have I as an example, one can see the benefits of this time-space method. On May 30, 1985, determined two occurrences since they were an FO tornado and a heavy hail storm struck produced by distinct thunderstorms not linked by a mesoscale phenomenon such as a I the town of Leamington, Ontario. The squall line. Even though a common synoptic following day (May 31), at approximately 4 p.m., an F4 tornado caused extreme amounts link existed (i.e. the mid-latitude cyclone), I of damage to the town of Barrie, Ontario the mesoscale wording would treat the Barrie tornado and Leamington hailstorm resulting in eight fatalities. The insured and tornado as separate mesoscale losses from these occurrences totalled $84 I occurrences. Unlike the current method, the million. These occurrences stemmed from space-time method would have treated these I 118 1 PART 3: OCCURRENCE DEFINITION Chapter 5: Occurrence Definition

as either one or two occurrences, but never as both one and two occurrences.

5.5 Summary and Recommendations

The space-time proposal classifies occurrences by scale (synoptic or mesoscale) and physical links, and allows for fairly straightforward determination of the number of occurrences. By malcing the definition of an occurrence more robust, less confusion would arise in classifying losses. Further research is recommended to: 1. apply the space-time method to a series of case studies, covering all types of severe weather events; and 2. develop a set of sample contracts, in order to test the implications of this method on past and future incidences.

Reference

Reiner, J. (personal communication). Co-operators General Insurance Company, 1997.

119 I PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF I PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS 6.0 Seismic Risk Models t by Dionne Gesink Law

6.1 Introduction ...... 121 I Emergency Planning Model ...... 122 Emergency Information Systems ...... 122 I Lifeline Analysis Models ...... 123 Insured Loss Estimation Models ...... 123 6.2 Generic Seismic Risk Model ...... 123 I Step 1: Insurance Inputs ...... 125 Step 2: Seismic Hazard Module ...... 125 Step 3: Vulnerability Module ...... 126 I Step 4: Financial Module and Insurance Outputs ...... 126 6.3 Insurance Inputs ...... 126 6.4 Seismic Hazard Module ...... 127 I 6.4.1 Seismicity ...... 129 6.4.2 Module Sufficiency ...... 133 Source Parameters ...... 137 t Ground Motion ...... 139 Site Parameters ...... 140 6.4.3 Module Limitations ...... 142 . Assumptions ...... 142 Sensitivities ...... 144 Uncertainty ...... 144 1 6.5 Vulnerability Module ...... --...... 145 6.6 Financial Module ...... 148 1 6.7 Review of Seismic Risk Models ...... 148 6.7.1 The Models ...... 152 Munich Re - Probable Maximum Loss Calculation Model ...... 152 I RiskManagement Solutions - IRASModel ...... 152 EQECA T - E4EHazard ...... 15 2 6.7.2 Examination of the Seismic Risk Models ...... 156 I 6.8 Summary and Recommendations ...... 156 Recommendations ...... 163 1 Referen ces ...... 163 I I H I PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models 6.0 Seismic Risk Models 1 by Dionne Gesink Law 1 6.1 Introduction The purpose of this chapter is to address the questions: What are the seismic risk models doing and how can they be critically examined? The objective of this section is to explain seismic risk I modelling in greater depth, for the purposes of model examination and assessment of model output. The steps outlined in a generic seismic risk model will be discussed in further detail by reviewing the components of the model. This includes the insurance inputs, the seismic hazard I module, the vulnerability module, and the financial outputs.

As the awareness of the threat of a risk will be crucial in preventing insolvency. I catastrophic earthquake along the south-west It is in the best interest of all insurance and coast of British Columbia motivates the reinsurance companies to use AT LEAST individual to purchase more earthquake TWO methods of risk analysis, whether they I insurance, the threat of insolvency within the be mathematical equations or sophisticated insurance and reinsurance industry also computer models. However, model users I grows. This concern has created an effort by should be aware that different methods can both government and the industry to produce different results. These determine a company's exposure to seismic discrepancies can either confuse the user, or I risk, and methods of managing that risk. draw attention to the uncertainty involved in seismic risk modelling. As risk analyses are In attempts to prevent insolvency in performed, it will become increasingly 1 the event of a catastrophic earthquake, the imperative that those individuals responsible federal Office of the Superintendent of for risk management of the exposures Financial Institutions (OSFI) has distributed understand the methods and models used, 1 a questionnaire to insurers and reinsurers and the meaning of the results produced. regarding earthquake risk assessment. From this survey, OSFI hopes to ascertain the There are several natural hazard risk I severity of the loss exposure of the industry models that can be used to assess both the as a whole, and amend the best practices Canadian exposure to a hazard, and the recommendations to include a strategy for potential insured losses in the event of a I effective risk management (Stratton, catastrophe. Some of the natural hazards personal communication). For example, which pose the greatest threat to Canadians several larger insurance and reinsurance are floods, droughts, earthquakes, hail I companies use seismic risk models to: storms, tornadoes and severe winter storms • determine their exposure to insured (reviewed in section 2.0, above). Due to the I earthquake losses, important economic and industry • develop a risk management strategy, implications of an earthquake near an urban • aid in underwriting. centre, this review of risk models will be 1 As the potential costs of a catastrophic restricted to those that analyse insured losses earthquake near an urban centre become resulting from earthquakes in Canada. I fully realised, strategies to manage seismic 121 1 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models

The purpose of this chapter is to: models. Several risk models have been 1. Provide an overview of seismic hazard; developed in Canada and the United States 2. Explain seismic risk modelling; and to be used as tools for planning, emergency 3. Provide an approach to evaluate the information systems, lifeline analyses, and various seismic risk models available to estimations of loss. the insurance industry. Emergency Planning Model Many of the available seismic risk Emergency Preparedness Canada is currently models estimate damage and losses due to developing the Natural Hazards Electronic seismic shaking, fire following, landslide, Map and Assessment Tools Information liquefaction, and tidal wave inundation. System (NHEMATIS). The primary Seismic shaking, however, will be the only purpose of NHEMATIS is to "provide portion of the model reviewed and evaluated emergency planners with a tool that supports in depth since it is responsible for most of the the definition and execution of elaborate damage associated with an earthquake. models which will assist in Future studies should review the other predicting/estimating the potential impact of modules in the seismic risk model, especially a natural hazard/disaster in a defined area of since landslides in Western Canada are not interest." (EPC, unpublished). NHEMATIS yet thoroughly understood. is intended to aid in natural hazard disaster management. It can help planners identify Historically, the Montreal-Quebec vulnerable areas, improve emergency City region has been susceptible to preparedness, and assist with pre-disaster earthquakes. More recently, geologists and mitigation (EPC, unpublished). For seismologists have begun to acknowledge a example, if a potential risk exists in an area, seismic threat fi-om two types of activity in amendments to city plans, zoning laws, and southern British Columbia. The first is a building codes can help to minimise major subduction earthquake (Guttenberg- exposure. Richter magnitude M=8+) originating along the Cascadia subduction zone, 150 km off Emergency Information Systems the coast of south-western British Columbia In the event of a major earthquake, and Washington State. The other, more monitoring the disaster in real-time will significant concern, is a moderate North require an emergency information systems American continental plate earthquake closer (EIS) such as the Early Post-Earthquake to Vancouver, or any urban area, which Damage Assessment Tool (EPEDAT), which would result in far more damage (Atwater et was developed by EQECAT for the al., 1995; Rogers, 1994). These regions are California Earthquake Authority. EPEDAT of such concern because of the high has a lag time of 15 to 30 minutes and can population density and extensive optimise the discharge of emergency urbanization. In the event of a major response and repair units, enable hospitals in earthquake the economic losses are expected high damage areas to prepare for incoming to be catastrophic, and the loss of life casualties, and begin initial estimates of total potentially devastating. Accordingly, dollar loss which can be updated regularly. government and industry have attempted to In effect, EPEDAT performs a lifeline quantify the level of risk and possible losses analysis during a catastrophe. In Canada, that could be incurred using seismic risk SoftRisk is used for floods.

122 I PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models Lifeline Analysis Models 2. Components of the generic model will Lifeline analysis involves assessing the be explained in more depth with t impact of an earthquake on emergency reference to the Vancouver and response, communication lines, surrounding area. transportation routes, and power lines. 3. A framework to examine seismic risk I Since this task has a high priority in models will be provided. California, EQECAT has developed the 4. The Munich Re, IRAS, and EQECanada LLEQE model to perform such analyses. In models will be presented using the I Canada, Munich Re and Rescan performed suggested framework. an extensive study on the economic and insured impact of a severe earthquake in the At the end of the chapter, I British Columbia lower mainland (Munich recommendations will highlight further work Re, 1990). The Munich Re economic model in this area. addressed the effect of an earthquake with I respect to structural and content damage, infrastructure damage, onsite injury and loss 6.2 Generic Seismic Risk Model I of life, and offsite damage for seismic shock, ensuing fire, landslide, and inundation. The The purpose of this section is to provide an insured losses model focused on damages overview of the process of seismic risk I due to seismic shaking and fire following. modelling. The modeller inputs insurance Assuming an earthquake of M=6.5, total information into the model, and specifies an economic losses were estimated to range earthquake magnitude and location. This t from $14.3 to 32.1 billion, while the total information is used by the seismic hazard insured loss estimation ranged from $6.67 to module to estimate shaking intensity at a 12.72 billion. sight. Shaking intensity is used in the t vulnerability module to estimate damage. Insured Loss Estimation Models Damage is used in the financial module to Several seismic risk models have been estimate insured losses. I developed for use by the insurance industry. These models include: Munich Re, Risk Some seismic risk models have been Management Solution's IRAS, EQECAT's developed to aid the insurance industry with i EQEHAZARD or EQECanada, and Risk risk management via the estimation of the Engineering's EQCanada. Though developed probable maximum loss. Probable maximum for slightly different purposes, all attempt to loss (PML) is an insurance term for the I provide additional information for risk estimated likely maximum cost that could be management strategies. incurred in the event of an earthquake of a given magnitude. I To evaluate the different seismic risk models available for insured loss estimation, Most seismic risk models are I it is imperative that the modelling process be comprised of three modules (Figure 6.1). understood. The process of seismic risk The seismic hazard module simulates actual modelling will be explained in four stages: earthquake shaking. The vulnerability I 1. A generic seismic risk model will be module relates seismic shaking to structural presented. and property damage. The financial module I .123 1 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS 1 Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models 1

1

INPUTS

1 •••••...1. i -- 1 -structure -attenuation -vulnerability -location equations functions 1 -magnitude 1 Financial Insurance Seismic Vulnerability r=„4> Inputs Hazard 1

-site to source/ PMD Plv11- PEL distance PED EAL -site conditions 1 OUTPUTS 1 Figure 6.1 Flowchart of seismic risk modelling 1 1 1 1 1 1 124 1 I PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS t Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models assigns a cost to those damages and Step 2: Seismic Hazard Module calculates the maximum potential and/or The seismic hazard module uses the location I expected losses. This process of seismic risk and magnitude of an earthquake, specified in modelling is outlined in the following steps. step 1, to estimate the probability of seismic hazard for either individual sites, or the I Step 1: Insurance Inputs insurance portfolio as a whole. Here, The information contained in an insurance seismic hazard refers to any physical company's portfolio is used as input for the phenomenon associated with an earthquake I seismic risk model. It is vital that this including ground motion, fire-following, information be as complete as possible; landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and otherwise uncertainty in the results is inundation. Most of the damage incurred by 1 inflated. This includes data on: a structure during an earthquake is the result • building location - by cresta zone or of seismic ground motion. The longer the postal code (3-6 digit); shaking, the greater the damage. The I • building construction - building type, objective of the seismic hazard module is to building age, building height; estimate the intensity of shaking at sites • building use; within the insurance company's portfolio I (EERI, 1989). • building contents; and • policy information - building value, deductibles, reinsurance, co-insurance. The module uses the earthquake I source zone to identify the earthquake The location and magnitude of the epicenter, where ground motion originates as I earthquake are also specified at this stage. seismic shock waves. The movement of the The location of the earthquake, usually seismic waves through the soil is modelled identified by its epicenter, is specified by a by attenuation equations. Ground motion I source zone (see Section 6.4). A continental attenuation at a site is a function of plate earthquake near an urban centre poses • earthquake magnitude, the greatest threat to both Canadians and the • distance from the source, and I insurance/reinsurance industry. Thus, when • site effects such as regional geology and analysing a worst-case scenario, most users soil conditions. will place the epicentre, or centre of the Ground motion itself is not sufficient to I earthquake, in the source zone closest to describe the degree of damage at a site. Vancouver. The magnitude of an event, is Rather it is the duration of strong ground usually specified using either: shaking that causes the most damage. I Therefore, the ground motion at a site, • a return period, • the Guttenberg-Richter scale (M), or usually expressed as peak ground • peak ground acceleration (PGA), acceleration, is converted to a Modified I Mercalli Index (MMI). The advantage of and these measures can be either: MMI is that it is a measure of shaking • user defined, intensity which incorporates shaking duration • based on a specific historical event, and frequency. MMI can also be used to • an average of several historical events, or quantify earthquakes that occurred before a proposed maximum magnitude event. I • seismic instrumentation was available (EERI, I 1989). 125 1 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models I Step 3: Vulnerability Module the insured value of the building. Most risk The purpose of the vulnerability module is to models calculate losses due to structural determine the extent of damage to buildings damage, damage to property and contents, I and contents at a site, or for a portfolio, in and business interruption. These estimates the event of an earthquake. This is done are presented either as a percent of the total using MMI estimates from the seismic value of the structure, or as a dollar value. I hazard module which are input into The net PML is calculated by including vulnerability functions. Vulnerability deductibles, and the appropriate layers of functions are based on the structural damage, reinsurance and co-insurance. Some models I as observed by structural engineers caused will also provide a measure of uncertainty by historic earthquakes of given shaking with the net PML estimate. intensities (IVIlVII). Most models use the I 1985 Applied Technology Council Report (ATC-13) vulnerability functions which have been modified to include damage information I from earthquakes since 1985 and from around the world. Some models also use the Stanford damage tables from California. In I Canada, building inventory information is entered into the risk model according to IBC 6.3 Insurance Inputs t classes which are based on the National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) standards. The first step is seismic risk modelling Thus, the NBCC structural information is involves insurance information. In addition t converted to ATC-13 equivalents to be used to specifying the magnitude, duration, and in the vulnerability functions. This location of an earthquake during analysis, the conversion is a potential source of error in modeller must provide information on I the calculation of PML. The size of this building location, building inventory and error is unknown, and worthy of further insurance structure. investigation. I It is the responsibility of the Damage estimates to structures are insurance company to provide portfolio presented as probable maximum damage information as input to the risk models. This I (PMD) and/or probable expected damage includes data on building location, building (PED). Often PMD is calculated at the 90th inventory, and insurance structure. The or 95th percentile. PED is usually calculated records within the portfolio can be complete I around the 50th percentile (see Section 6.5). or incomplete, site specific or aggregated. For site specific analysis, incomplete data are Step 4: Financial Module and usually handled by the model by assigning I Insurance Outputs weighted averages. This introduces Damage estimates from the vulnerability uncertainty into the analysis and elevates the potential for errors. The accuracy and I module are used in the financial module to calculate the probable maximum loss (PME) reliability of the earthquake loss estimates and probable expected loss (PEL) of an calculated by the model can only be I earthquake, based on the company's improved by increasing the rigor of the portfolio. PML is a function of PMD and insurance and database inputs. I 126 1 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models

The distance of a structure from the structure. The insurance structure includes centre of an earthquake will influence the reinsurance, coinsurance, and retrocession. degree of shaldng, and hence damage, incurred by the structure. Thus, the location of a structure is an extremely important piece 6.4 Seismic Hazard Module of information. Data on structure location can range from site specific, such as street The second step in seismic modelling address or postal code, to regionally involves seismic hazard modelling. The aggregated, such as earthquake accumulation purpose of the seismic hazard module is to assessment zones - otherwise known as predict shaking intensity at a site some cresta zones (Figure 6.2). This information distance from the earthquake source. This is is used in the seismic hazard module done using the insurance and earthquake attenuation equations to detertnine: information input in step one. • the distance from building site to earthquake source, and The effectiveness of the seismic • site conditions which can strongly hazard model rests on how well it can influence ground motion attenuation. represent reality. If seismicity is not well understood, or if the model or data used is It is also important that information incomplete, the uncertainty associated with on building class, height, and year of the seismic hazard model outputs is construction be as complete as possible exacerbated, and decisions made using the because building inventory information is results are compromised. To evaluate the used in the vulnerability module to estimate seismic hazard module several issues need to the damage resulting fi-om an earthquake. It be addressed. This includes: is assumed that the quality of materials and workmanship used during construction are to • the scientific understanding of the National Building Code of Canada standards. physical nature of seismic hazards. For Unfortunately, evidence following the 1985 example, seismicity concerns the Barrie tornado (Allen, 1986), Hurricane physical mechanics and processes of Hugo in Florida, and other like events, earthquakes, as well as its measurement. suggest that this assumption should be This includes how well seismic activity is revisited, and that stronger code enforcement understood in Canada, especially since is required. seismicity in Western Canada and Toronto are areas of debate. Insurance structure is used in the financial module to assign a cost to • the sufficiency of the seismic hazard earthquake generated losses for property module. Module sufficiency issues damages, contents damage, and business address three areas of concern: interruption. Determining gross losses 1. model representation of seismicity requires information on the value of the such as inputs, process and outputs; structure, as well as its contents, and use. 2. ground motion attenuation Calculation of net losses requires information relationships; and limitations due to regarding deductibles and the insurance the assumptions, sensitivities and uncertainties made by the module.

127 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models

,a •e 'ià.-., e2

1-4

0 500 1000 km U.S.A. 1 i

Zone 1 Richmond, Fraser Delta Zone 11 British Columbia Zone 2 Rest of Greater Vancouver Zone 12 Alberta Zone 3 Victoria Zonel3 Saskatchewan Zone 4 Rest of Vancouver Earthquake Zone Zonel4 Manitoba Zone 5 Montreal Zone 15 Ontario Zone 6 Greater Montreal Zone 16 Quebec Zone 7 Surroundings of Montreal Zone 17 Maritime Provinces Zone 8 Rest of Montreal Earthquake Zone Zone 18 Newfoundland Zone 9 Quebec City and Epicentral Region Zone 19 Yukon Territory Zone 10 Rest of Quebec Earthquake Zone Zone 20 North West Territories

Figure 6.2 Cresta zonation for Canada

128 I PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models • If the seismic parameter inputs, ground Because of the absence of major historical motion attenuation equations, or seismic activity in this area (Guttenberg- I assumptions are weak, the results of the Richter magnitude, M> 7), subduction has seismic hazard module will be been considered relatively aseismic by some compromised. Model sensitivities and researchers (Campbell, unpublished). I uncertainties can also reduce the Campbell (unpublished) argues that since the integrity of the model, and hence, the Juan de Fuca plate is young, thin and confidence associated with the model smooth, subduction is occurring aseismically, I outputs. and may cease altogether within 100 years. He suggests that, at worst, the West coast • the sufficiency of the data and databases will experience a few moderate earthquakes I used in the seismic hazard module. Data (M = 5 to 7.5) over the next few centuries. sufficiency issues of data quality, Rogers (1994) and Atwater et al. (1995) I quantity, availability, objectivity, have an opposing interpretation based on resolution and completeness apply to evidence from both the Cascadia subduction both data input into the program, and zone and similar subduction zones around t data stored in databases within the the world. They note that the largest program. If seismic data are deficient, recorded earthquake (M = 9.5) occurred in again, the reliability of the results will be Chile in 1960 along a young, thin, smooth I compromised. This elevates the subducting plate, much like the Cascadia uncertainty associated with the outputs. subduction zone (Smith, 1996; Atwater et Issues of data sufficiency need to be al., 1995; Rogers, 1994). They have also I discussed along with the previous two found evidence suggesting that a major issues. Thus, this chapter will address earthquake (M = 8+) occurred along the data sufficiency inherently within the Cascadia subduction zone approximately 300 I seismicity and model sufficiency sections. years ago (Atwater et al., 1995; Rogers, The impact of data sufficiency in 1988; 1994). Current compression and model development is not well bulging of the coastline suggests that the 1 understood and requires further subducting Juan de Fuca oceanic plate is investigation. currently locked with the North American continental plate, building energy for another t 6.4.1 Seismicity catastrophic earthquake (Rogers, The fundamental properties of seismicity are unpublished). Table 6.1 summarises the generally well understood by the scientific West coast debate. Though Campbell I (unpublished.) presents interesting arguments community (see Section 2.4.1). However, conflicting assessments in a given which diminish the seismic threat on the I geographical area can still arise. For West Coast, the findings of Rogers (1988; example, the seismic activity of the Cascadia 1994), and Atwater et al. (1995) are subduction zone, 150 km off the coast of generally more widely accepted. I Vancouver and Washington, is currently under debate. Here, the Juan de Fuca, A moderate earthquake within the Gorda, and Explorer plates are being continental plate close to Vancouver, or any I subducted, or over-ridden, by the North urban area, would result in far more damage American continental plate (Figure 6.3). than a movement along the Cascadia I subduction zone. Probabilistic modelling 129 1

PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models

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Figure 6.3 Subduction along the west coast of Canada

130 M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M

Table 6.1 Evidence refuting and supporting the possibility of historic and future great earthquakes on the west coast of Canada and the northwestern United States.

Evidence Explanation by Campbell Explanation by Atwater/ Rogers Drowned trees, marshes • world-wide sea level rise due to • abrupt subsidence of shoreline (up to 2m) as consequence of great and diatoms along the BC deglaciation after isostatic earthquake coastline rebound • identical to those produced on adjacent coasts during Alaska (M=9.2) and • drowned trees common north of world's largest recorded earthquake in Chile (M=9.5) Cascadia subduction coastal section Tsunamis • evidence tenuous since Alaskan • buried marshes often have tsunami sand deposit immediately on top great earthquake hardly visible • deposits from off-shore sand sources 30 years later. • similar to those preserved in area of Chile and Alaska quakes • Japanese historical records for 6 different coastline locations of tsunami impacts on Jan. 27, 1700 without local earthquake and absence of large quake in S. America, C. America, Alaska or Kamchatka leaving Canadian- northwestern American coast as source. Estimated magnitude M=9 Underwater Landslides • landslides not addressed • massive deposits averaging 500 year intervals sampled from deep sea floor; and Liquefaction • glacial loading and unloading huge slides of unstable deposits expected during great earthquake • liquefaction features present in stratigraphy Subduction Plate Locking • Cascadia plate very young, • horizontal geodetic measurements show coastal region being shortened thin, and smooth (no perpendicular to the coast in direction of seafloor convergence and seamounts), therefore can NOT underthrusting. Such elastic deformation only occurs if upper portion of lock, hence absolutely NO subducting underthrusting oceanic plate locked to underside of overlying potential for great earthquake continental plate. At time of earthquake, elastic deformation will reverse and (>7.5M) outer coast will spring back several meters as has been observed in other • only plates older than 25-30M regions of great underthrusting earthquakes yrs produce great earthquakes • vertical geodetic measurements show coastal region bulging upward in • Plate moving at 45mm/yr thus characteristic pattern of locked subduction thrust fault. Collapse of coastal cannot be locked, nor be bulge during earthquake produces coastal subsidence recorded in buried storing energy to produce a marshes, and results in large tsunamis that inundate coastal regions. subduction fault or great • great earthquakes in Japan, Chile (M=9.5), Mexico City (M=8) have earthquake involved plates less than 20M years old, and less than 30km thick. • Juan de Fuca plate is excellent Earthquake in Chile (M=9.5), oceanic crust also devoid of seamounts. example of aseismic subduction (no quakes) Table 6.1 (continued) Evidence refuting and supporting the possibility of historic and future great earthquakes on the west coast of Canada and the northwestern United States.

Evidence Explanation by Campbell Explanation by Atwater/ Rogers Local Plate Tectonics • all major earthquakes occur • Vancouver and Victoria have ongoing small earthquake activity beneath east of hanging wall of Juan de them and in the crust nearby. Fuca and are generally at least • three source areas: continental crust earthquake, deep earthquakes in 50km deep to the hypocenter subducted Juan de Fuca plate, and very large earthquakes on subduction • mainland BC is essentially boundary -150km offshore aseismic, except for Nootka Fault at depth • Vancouver Island is crossed by subsurface Nootka Fault, and encompasses extreme north end of Juan de Fuca seismic subduction zone Earthquake Hazard • Slight to non-existent • High - in addition to subduction earthquake, hazard comes from earthquakes • there will NOT be an extremely within crust of North American plate and suduction or underthrusting Juan large subduction earthquake de Fuca plate (M=8+)on the Juan de Fuca subduction plate. • relatively modest earthquakes (M=7.5) at depths below 20km will continue for hundreds of years at worst, or may expire as the Juan de Fuca subduction ceases • no indication of any seismic occurrences on the Mainland north of the 49th parallel, those that might occur will be deep and distant from Vancouver Modeling Strategy • Deterministic - all faults known • Probabilistic - exact location of faults unknown; many faults unknown

M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models suggests that the building code design levels Ground motion attenuation describes for ground motion are more than sufficient how ground shalcing subsides with distance. to endure shaking from all seismic wave This relationship is dependent on earthquake frequencies produced by a large earthquake, source conditions, event magnitude and however, it is the dura lion of shaking that ground shaking, and site conditions. Ground makes many structures vulnerable to motion attenuation equations are based on extensive damage (Rogers, personal seismic data from pre- and post- communication). A moderate earthquake instrumentation events around the world. close to Vancouver, beneath the Strait of The validity of the attenuation results are Georgia for instance, would result in dependent on the reliability of historical disastrously large insured losses, forcing accounts, and the rigor of measures for many companies into insolvencies. In order currently active seismic areas. Thus, it is to improve risk management strategies and important that the analysis of historic events prevent insolvencies, the insurance industry be as accurate as possible. should use seismic risk models to assess their exposure. Especially since the absence of Globally, large magnitude evidence is not evidence of absence. earthquakes occur rarely (on the order of hundreds of years) and without warning, so 6.4.2 Module Sufficiency that traditionally it has been difficult to The purpose of the seismic hazard module is measure and study them. Canada has not yet to use ground motion attenuation equations had a catastrophic earthquake, and so the to estimate ground motion, or shaking, at a severity of its exposure is unclear. However, site some distance from the centre of an in efforts to minimise exposure, Canada has earthquake. Ground motion moves in six built over 100 seismic monitoring stations directions: north, south, east, west, up and for research purposes. These stations record down (Figure 6.4). Thus there are two seismic parameters including the location of horizontal axes (north/south, east/west), and each epicenter, duration, and magnitude for one vertical (up/down). In Canada, there are all earthquakes. The epicentre is the surficial very few recordings of strong ground location of the source of an earthquake, and motion, particularly horizontal, and so is found directly above the hypocentre. In accurate simulation is compromised. Since areas with enough seismograph stations, ground motion attenuation equations are the such as southwestern British Columbia, the foundation of every seismic hazard module, depth of the hypocentre is also measured. this will affect the model results. Just how The hypocentre is the actual location of the much the results are affected requires further source of an earthquake. This is usually at exploration. Accordingly, the data input, some depth beneath the earth's surface along databases, and equations used within the a rupturing fault. Larger earthquakes are model need to be as rigorous as possible for examined more thoroughly and include the model to be considered sufficient. Here measures of earthquake intensity, fault sufficient refers to the model adequately or dimensions and orientation, causal stress satisfactorily representing the Canadian West fields and so on (Rogers, personal Coast seismic situation. communication). While this level of detail will be of use in the future, current researchers and models must rely on historic seismic events for risk analysis. A major

133

PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models

P wave r Compressions

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Figure 6.4 Direction of seismic wave motion where (a) is east-west direction; (b) is up-down direction; and (c) is north-south direction. Source: Richards, 1996.

134 I PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models proportion of these events occurred before For example, measures of depth to sophisticated instrumentation became hypocentre are not always accurate, or available for measuring seismicity. It is available, for Canadian earthquakes (Rogers, extremely difficult to translate historical data personal communication). Accordingly, into current settings with any kind of distance to epicentre is used as the distance I accuracy (Rogers, personal communication). measure. Since the behaviour of a seismic Therefore there is a high degree of wave is better understood as the depth of the uncertainty inherently associated with any hypocentre increases, eliminating this E earthquake risk analysis. parameter increases uncertainty about the attenuation of a seismic wave. Generally, ground motion attenuation I at a site is a function of distance from the California data are not applicable to source (d), depth to hypocentre (R), the Cascadia subduction zone because the earthquake magnitude (M), and site two tectonic environments are very different I parameters describing regional geology and (Crouse, 1991). Therefore, accelerogram site soil conditions (Gi). As seismic waves data from other subduction zones similar to pass through the ground, they encounter the Cascadia, such as central Chile, Peru, I different mediums which either amplify or Mexico, Alaska, and southwest Japan, have dampen their movement. From Figure 6.5 it been included in the development of ground can be seen that ground motion attenuates motion attenuation functions (Heaton and exponentially with increasing distance from Hartzell, 1987; Crouse, 1991). For example, the epicentre. Crouse (1991) used peak ground I acceleration, depth of hypocentre, and The Canadian West Coast is distance to epicentre. Distance to epicentre susceptible to two types of earthquakes: was converted to centre of energy release I shallow continental, and deep subduction. distances, which is the "distance from the Shallow earthquakes close to Vancouver, recording station to a point on the fault such as in the Strait of Georgia, are analysed rupture where the energy was considered I using attenuation curves from California concentrated. For all earthquakes less than (Rogers, personal communication). M= 7.5, this point was assumed to be the California attenuation equations are based on hypocentre. For most of the larger events, I peak ground acceleration (PGA), local this point was the centroid of the fault magnitude, depth to hypocentre, and plane." It should be noted that most of the distance to epicentre (Campbell, 1989). global data were taken at stiff soil sites, and I PGA is commonly used as the ground that bedrock sites were under-represented in motion parameter because data are available the global dataset. 'Ultimately, attenuation and easily measured for all regions in for stiff soils became a function of magnitude I California. Measures of depth to hypocentre and distance (equation 1): for California tend to be overestimated because of the inaccuracy of the velocity 1n PGA = p1 + P2 In (R + C(M)) (1) I models employed routinely to locate earthquakes in one part of the state. As a where R is the distance to the centre of I consequence, they are usually presumed energy release (hypocentre), and the rest are unreliable (Campbell, 1989). Similar constants (Crouse, 1991). For these types of I problems plague observations elsewhere. attenuation equations, site PGA is converted 135 1 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models

-. ez-- PRe43Az1-trY ogre tTy "z 0 0 ri.4.MC-ricat4 D; y. o § ‘(... (pleN,R,c;) ek) • Iii

Di sTANic€ eitorm. vi:taskiquietic SoLueCe where: M = magnitude R = shortest distance from earthquake source to site. Ci = parameters describing geology and soil conditions at a site.

Figure 6.5 Ground motion attenuation with distance

Table 6.2 Table 6.3 Site PGA (g) Site bedrock MMI If medium is ... Increase MMI by... < 0.1 5 - 6 Rock 0 0.1 - 0.2 6 - 7 Stiff Soil 0.5 0.2 - 0.3 7 - 8 Soft Soil 1 0.4 - 0.8 8 - 9 Bay Mud 2 Source: Tung et al., 1994.

136 i PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models

E to site MMI using a conversion table (Table the 1995 Kobe earthquake in Japan (M=6.9) 6.2), and soil effects are accounted for by occurred along a previously unknown fault. I modifying the site MMI using a set of rules If an area is thought to have seismic potential (Table 6.3; Tung et al., 1994). Thus, site and yet little to no physical evidence exists to conditions are only assessed after the seismic support the hypothesis, source zones are E wave has been attenuated. This may be often used to identify the location of a fault. sufficient for sites near the earthquake From 1568 to 1988, 24 000 earthquakes epicentre, however, for sites further away, were recorded within Canada and those I interim site conditions amplify and dampen surrounding areas which could affect shaking. Failure to account for site Canadian territory (Anglin et al., 1990). conditions between the seismic source and Most models have defined source zones by I structural location can misrepresent drawing boxes around clusters of epicentres shaking intensity at the site. along the west coast (Figure 6.6). If the user defines an epicentre as a point within the I It is the objective of the attenuation source zone, the zone can be divided into function to determine shaking intensity at a segments of equal probability occurrence site given the original ground motion (Rauch, personal communication). If a fault I magnitude, and distance from the source. To is known to exist at a certain location, a fault better understand ground motion zone can sometimes be specified as the attenuation, each component of the source. attenuation equation can be addressed separately. This includes: the source According to Rogers (1994), the parameters, ground motion parameters and most important parameter for seismic hazard I site parameters. zonation in a subduction zone is down-dip extent. The down-dip extent is defined as I Source Parameters the length of the contact between the brittle, An earthquake is the result of elastic strain lower portion of the continental crust and the released via. rupturing along a fault line - the upper oceanic crust. It is along this zone I earthquake source. The larger the rupture, that most earthquakes occur. Since the Juan the larger the earthquake and surrounding de Fuca plate is young, this zone is thin such area affected. Seismic waves originate at the that the uncertainty of the depth of the 1 source and decay as they move radially hypocentre is restricted to 2-3 km. Thus, the outwards from it. In order to determine the depth of the hypocentre can be used to level of ground motion at a site, it is define the down-dip extent (Hyndman et al., I important to have some measure of where 1990; Rogers, 1994). the source is in relation to the site-to-source parameter. The seismic source can be Depth to hypocentre helps define the I described by several parameters including the down-dip extent of the subduction zone, and fault location, down-dip extent of the of the helps explain seismic wave motion. As the plate boundaries, depth of the hypocentre, depth to the hypocentre increases, behaviour I and location of epicentre. of seismic waves becomes more predictable. That is, it becomes increasingly difficult to I Unless seismic activity has been assess the distribution, maximum magnitude, observed along a fault, its location or and acceleration of earthquakes with shallow I existence, remains unknown. For instance, hypocentres (depth < 70 km). This presents 137 1 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models I I I I I I I 6.5 < M ;1965-1988

Q 4.5 < M 5 6.5 ;1965-1988 t O 3,0:5 M 5 4.5 ;1965-1988 I 6.5 < M ;1568-1964 I 4.5

Figure 6.6 Epicentres along the Canadian west coast. Source: Anglin et al. 1990. I 138 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models one of the greatest sources of uncertainty return period tends to decrease. The in seismic risk analysis (Rogers, 1994). recurrence period is used in a recurrence model to assign the magnitude of an event Since the movement of a seismic based on the probability of exceeding the wave attenuates with distance, most event in a given number of years (Lamarre et attenuation equations have a site-to-source al., 1992). parameter. This suggests a measure from the structure location to the hypocentre. As The Guttenberg-Richter scale is the mentioned earlier, hypocentre measurements scale most commonly used to measure a are not always available or reliable. seismic event. It describes the 'total energy However, unlike depth to hypocentre, the of the seismic waves radiating outwards epicentre, located directly above the from an earthquake as recorded by the hypocentre at the surface, is a straight amplitude of ground motion traces on forward and reliable seismic measurement. seismographs at a normalised distance of Therefore, it is usually used to measure site- 100km from the source' (Smith, 1996). to-source distance. Seismic hazard modules Since it was first developed, the Guttenberg- account for depth of hypocentre by adjusting Richter scale has been modified to include the source-to-site distance. data from modern seismic measurement devices, and local and regional conditions. Ground Motion While the local magnitude scale is acceptable Ground motion is induced by seismic energy for measuring smaller earthquakes (M 6.5), release at the source. It is usually measured the moment magnitude scale is more by magnitude, seismic shaking intensity, and appropriate for larger events (M> 6.5). The peak ground acceleration, which can be local magnitude (M4) is the logarithm of the quantified using seismographs or corrected ground motion in micrometers accelerograms. The 100 seismograph (1gm = i 0 mm). For example, an seismic stations in Canada continuously record all wave amplitude of 0.5 mm (500 gm) will seismic activity in Canada vvith magnitude have an ML of 2.7 (log (500) = 2.7), while to M> 3.5, including M = 3.5 for populated achieve ML = 8, the seismic wave amplitude areas (Rogers, personal communication). must be 100 000 min or 100 m. Each Ground motion shaking intensity is incremental increase in ML represents a 10 responsible for much of the damage to fold increase in potential ground shaldng and structures. Thus, as shaking duration 31.6 times increase in energy release increases, so does the amount of damage. (Munich Re, 1990; Smith, 1996).

Holding all other factors constant, a Earthquakes larger than ML = 6.5 are subduction earthquake will often produce poorly represented by ML because the more damage than a continental earthquake seismic waves from only a small portion of because its larger rupture surface increases the rupture zone along a fault are measured the duration of strong shaking (Rogers, by the scale. Thus it does not capture the 1994). In the various seismic risk models, total energy released during an event. the user specifies a seismic event magnitude Consequently, the magnitude of larger using either a Guttenberg-Richter scale earthquakes are measured by the magnitude, M, or a recurrence probability. Guttenberg-Richter moment magnitude (M) As the magnitude of an event increases, its

139 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models I which uses displaced surface area of the PGA does not provide a measure of duration fault, average length of movement, and the or frequency of ground motion which are rigidity of ground material. Though M> 5.5 important factors for determining damage to I accounts for approximately 1% of all structures (Ansary et al., 1995). earthquakes in the world, they are responsible for 90% of all seismic energy Some researchers believe that Arias I released (Smith, 1996). Intensity is a more objective measure of shaking intensity and ground motion The Guttenberg-Richter scale does characterisation (Arias, 1970; Kayen et al., t not include ground shaking intensity, 1994; Kayan and Mitchell, 1996). Arias duration, or frequency, which are necessary intensity is calculated by integrating the to infer potential damages. Accordingly, the entire seismogram wave form, including I M is usually converted in the seismic module amplitude and duration of ground motion. to a Modified Mercalli Index (MMI). The objective is to find the total seismic MMI provides a measure of seismic ground energy absorbed by the ground either at the I shaking intensity by assigning a numerical surface, or at some depth below. Unlike value to the human observations of felt PGA, which uses a single, high frequency, ground motion and the extent of physical point in the seismogram, Arias intensity I damage to buildings and undeveloped land. considers the full range of frequencies An experienced individual will rate the recorded for all points in the seismogram. I intensity of an earthquake from MMI = 1, Arias Intensity is also directly quantifiable not felt except by a very few under and verifiable, as opposed to MMI (Kayen et exceptionally favourable circumstances, to al., 1994; Kayen and Mitchell, 1996). I MMI = XII, total destruction (wave seen on However, Arias intensity is still relatively ground surface, lines of sight and level young, and an extensive database is still distorted, objects thrown into the air; see being developed. There is also the question I Table 6.4). of how, or even if, Arias intensity can deal with historic earthquakes. As well, Arias Though MMI is extremely subjective, Intensity is dependent on the seismic record, I it can be argued that it is no less scientific and seismograms may not always be than Guttenberg-Richter Scale measurements available, or triggered, to measure seismic since seismologists can disagree on the exact activity. Though this measure does show I rating of the magnitude of an event. In promise for the future, MMI will likely addition to providing information on the continue to be used for seismic hazard spatial damage pattern after an earthquake, modelling for some time. I MMI is applicable to pre-instrumentation earthquakes. Site Parameters Ground motion is strongly affected by site I MMI has since been modified to be conditions. As such, it is important to more objective by relating each index consider site effects in any ground motion I increment to a measure of peak ground attenuation function. For instance, seismic acceleration (see Table 6.2). PGA is the motion in shallow soils (5 10 m) is peak value of horizontal ground acceleration amplified, while in deep soils (> 10 m) it is I at a site. The advantage of PGA is that it is attenuated (Campbell, 1989). Most models objective and directly measurable. However, obtain data on the local subsoil conditions I 140 1

PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models Table 6.4 Modified Mercalli Intensity Scale

Average Average Peak Peak Acceleration Velocity (cm/s) Intensity Value and Description (g is gravity = 9.8 in/s2) I Not felt except by a very few under exceptionally favourable circumstances. II Felt only by a few persons at rest, especially on upper floors of buildings. Delicately suspended objects may swing. III Felt quite noticeably indoors, especially on upper floors of buildings, but many people do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing automobiles may rock slightly. Vibration like passing truck. Duration estimated. 1-2 IV During day felt indoors by many, outdoors by few. At night some 0.015g-0.02g awaken. Dishes, vvindows, doors disturbed; walls make crealdng sound. Sensation like heavy truck strildng building. Standing automobiles rocked noticeably. 2-5 V Felt by nearly everyone, many awakened. Some dishes, windows 0.03g-0.04g and so on broken; cracked plaster in a few places; unstable objects overturned. Disturbance of trees, poles and other tall objects sometimes noticed. Pendulum clocks may stop. 5-8 VI Felt by all, many frightened and run outdoors. Some heavy 0.06g-0.07g furniture moved; a few instances of fallen plaster and damaged chimneys. Damage slight. 8-12 VII Everybody runs outdoors. Damage negligible in buildings of good 0.10g-0.15g design and construction; slight to moderate in well-built ordinary structures; considerable in poorly built or badly designed structures; some chimneys broken. Noticed by persons driving cars. 20-30 VIII Damage slight in specially designed structures; considerable in 0.25g-0.30g ordinary substantial buildings with partial collapse; great in poorly built structures. Panel walls thrown out of frame structures. Fall of chinmeys, factory stacks, columns, walls, monuments. Heavy furniture overturned. Sand and mud ejected in small amounts. Changes in well water. Persons driving cars disturbed. 45-55 IX Damage considerable in specially designed structures; well- 0.50g-0.55g designed frame structures thrown out of plumb; damage great in substantial buildings, with partial collapse. Buildings shifted off foundations. Ground cracked conspicuously. Underground pipes broken. >60 X Some well-built wooden structures destroyed; most masonry and >0.60g frame structures destroyed with foundations; ground badly cracked. Rails bent. Landslides considerable from river banks and steep slopes. Shifted sand and mud. Water splashed, slopped over banks. XI Few, if any (masonry) structures remain standing. Bridges destroyed. Broad fissures in ground. Underground pipelines completely out of service. Earth slumps and landslips in soft ground. Rails bend greatly. XII Damage total. Waves seen on ground surface. Lines of sight and level distorted. Objects thrown into the air.

141 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models I from the Geological Survey of Canada soil constructive interference. This usually maps. Though soil type is well documented causes the collapse of the structure, such as for western Canada, soil depth and shear the Tacoma bridge collapse in Washington I velocity are not (Rogers, personal State on Puget Sound. communication). This introduces a high degree of uncertainty in the prediction of 6.4.3 Module Limitations I ground motion attenuation, and accounts for The most significant constraint on a seismic a large proportion of the error (Campbell, hazard module is related to data limitations. 1989). Canadian seismic data is limited due to both I the rarity of larger seismic occurrences, and Due to data limitations on soil the analysis of pre-instrumentation seismic characteristics, many models assume a events. To assess the sufficiency of a seismic I simplified soil depth (Figure 6.7a). hazard module as a whole, the general However, field observations suggest that the assumptions, sensitivities and sources of soil-bedrock interface undulates irregularly uncertainty must be reviewed. I causing soil depth to fluctuate dramatically a.t the local scale (Figure 6.7b). Generally, the Assumptions real spatial distribution of soil depth is not Since Canada has yet to experience a well known. Depending on the sub-surface catastrophic earthquake, one of the most site conditions, an irregular bedrock surface important assumptions is that the data I could ricochet seismic waves through the soil from California and other subduction beneath the surface so that some locations zones are representative of, and behave as focal points, while others applicable to, the situation of western I experience amplified or dampened velocities Canada. (Brooks and Vincent, personal communication). This results in highly I variable damage patterns that are very difficult to predict. I The overall structure and shear velocity of soil conditions for the Fraser slï'Cirtl..ÿ;^ftër;: River delta are generally well understood. iricrëasës : I Thus, ground motion attenuation can be modelled with some confidence. It can be Seismic hazard modelling is highly assumed that soils on the Delta are deep dependent on the occurrence of seismic t enough to dampen most ground motions events in the past. Since the ability to until the soils start to taper or pinch out. directly measure seismic activity is relatively However, in these areas, seismic wave recent, it is assumed that qualitative I amplification gains importance as it becomes descriptions of historic events are sufficiently synchronised with the motion of the accurate to enable the event to be I surrounding buildings (Rogers, personal consistently converted to a value of NM. communication). To explain, every structure As a corollary, it is assumed that 1VIIVII can has a natural frequency of vibration. As adequately quantify historic ground shaking 'I seismic wave frequency coincides with intensity. Assuming that the quality of structural frequency, the result is building construction and materials is I 142 1 1 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models I I I I I I

I I t

I Figure 6.7 Example of soil conditions in Vancouver Area I I I I I I 143 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models uniform around the world, this could be Uncertain°, feasible. However, the world is composed of Uncertainty is associated with every facet a mosaic of building practices that have been of seismic hazard modelling. Some developing through time at different rates. attempt to address or quantify uncertainty An earthquake resistant building design for should be associated with seismic hazard the Ukraine may not be sufficient by estimates, since this uncertainty may Californian standards. Accordingly, an influence decisions regarding seismic risk earthquake of equal magnitude in either area management. This includes uncertainty due may produce completely different damage to (Lamarre et al., 1992): results, and hence different measures of • seismic source delineation, MMI. For international comparison of • maximum magnitude estimation, seismic shaking intensity, MM1 is highly • recurrence periods, uncertain. However, within a given • attenuation equations, and jurisdiction, MMI provides a common • parameter measurement and estimation. forum. Seismic measurement is still limited. For example, Lamarre et al. (1992) have That is: attempted to quantify uncertainty by • not all seismic parameters are confidently applying the bootstrap method. The measurable yet, such as depth to bootstrap method is a statistical approach hypocentre, which deals with incomplete datasets. Their • not all seismically active areas are objective was to evaluate uncertainty due to: equipped with instrumentation, and • incompleteness of the earthquake • often, in areas that are equipped, the catalogue; instruments are either not triggered, or • errors in magnitude measurement and not immediately triggered, during an conversion (M to MMI); event. • mismatching of the recurrence and Since no alternative measure for historic attenuation models with reality; and events is currently available, there is no • the final seismic hazard estimates. reason to discontinue using MMI and the MMI-damage relationship in seismic risk There is also the potential for modelling (Tung et al., 1994). uncertainty to be associated with the seismic parameters themselves. This pertains to data Sensitivities sufficiency issues. For instance, depth to For many models, the most sensitive hypocentre, used in many attenuation parameter is also the most subjective - MMI. equations, is difficult to measure because of Due to the subjective nature of many of the limitations in instrumentation and modelling. seismic hazard inputs, some form of sensitivity analysis should be performed to Most models obtain Canadian seismic determine how alternative inputs for source and site condition information from important parameters will affect model the Geological Survey of Canada. Since all results and, ultimately, decisions made based models use the same soil data for Canada, all on these outputs (EERI, 1989; Lamarre et are subject to the same uncertainties al., 1992). associated with the collection, completeness, accuracy and resolution of the data. Thus, there is again an underlying commonality

144 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models

between the models. With so many The ATC-13 vulnerability functions, commonalties between the seismic hazard developed in 1985 by a group of Structural models, aside from the data limitations, Engineers from the Applied Technology discrepancies in the results are not well Council, describe the modes of failure for understood. different types of structures given earthquake shaking intensity. They also provide a measure of the likely cost of repair for a 6.5 Vulnerability Module structure given its construction type, defined by the ATC-13 classification system (Table The third step in seismic risk modelling 6.5). MMI was used as the measure of involves modelling structural vulnerability to shaking intensity because it was available for damage. The purpose of the vulnerability historic and more recent earthquakes. module is to estimate the degree of damage Additional measures of structural damage to structures and contents, as well as the were obtained from field and shake table potential cost of business interruption for a investigations. Damage and shaking given earthquake. To do this, the shaking intensity were then used to estimate intensity estimated in step two is used in structural vulnerability to failure in the event vulnerability functions. of an earthquake, with functions developed for each construction type (Figure 6.8). The In the vulnerability module, damage vulnerability curves are then used by the is estimated using vulnerability functions vulnerability models to estimate damage to a which relate ground motion to damage structure. That is, the ATC-13 construction for various structures. Since Canada has class is used to determine structural not had a serious earthquake, damage vulnerability, which along with MMI, is used information is limited, and so, the to estimate structural damage. Most vulnerability functions are based on vulnerability modules have since modified observations of historic and recent and updated the ATC-13 vulnerability earthquake damage from around the world. functions to include information from global As with the attenuation laws, it is therefore field observations and shake table necessary to have a complete understanding experiments. of how historical shaking intensities are converted to estimates of damage (see Probable Maximum Damage (PMD) Section 6.4). is the upper bound for estimating total portfolio damage. Total portfolio damage is Building inventory information, the sum of all individual cases. The PMD for including Insurance Bureau of Canada class a structure is usually calculated at the 90th, and age of structure, are converted to or 95th, percentile on the vulnerability curve Applied Technology Council Report (ATC- (Figure 6.8). This means that 13) equivalents to infer the relative 1. for an event with a 300 year return vulnerability of a structure to failure. Using period or an event that has a 1 in 300 modified ATC-13 vulnerability fimctions, the chance of occurring, and percent of structural damage is estimated 2. given that the event has happened such based on relative vulnerability of the building that the probability of exceeding damage and MI'VII shaldng intensity at the site. at the 90th percentile is 1/10 (10%),

145 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models I Table 6.5. ATC-13 Construction Classes (Sample) I Class Code Construction Type p Unknown I 1 Wood Frame 2 Light Metal 3 Unreinforced Masonry Wall I 4 URM Wall with Frame 5 RC Shear Wall with Frame D I I I I I 90th Percentile t 50th Percentile "^ <:^= Probability Density Functton (o to 100 /o) I Q)

A t I

Shaking Intensity (MMI) I Figure 6.8. Example Vulnerability Function r I 146 I PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models

there is a 1 in 3000 chance of the event functions? Failure to account for these happening and the damage estimate being assumptions could lead to severe under- exceeded at the 90th percentile on the estimation of potential damages. vulnerability curve. Many modellers will select a return period coincident with that mivil is a subjective and sensitive specified for building code standards. parameter. Since there is a non-linear relationship between shaking intensity and Calculating PMD at the 90th or 95th level of structural damage, small changes in percentile can provide the modeller with an MMI will result in large differences in unwarranted sense of confidence in the structural damage. Level of damage also damage estimates. However, events with a depends strongly on structural vulnerability. higher return period can have more Incomplete building inventory information is detrimental effects if the confidence level is usually compensated for either by calculating decreased. For example, Probable Expected a weighted average for the construction Damage (PED) is calculated at the 50th types in that area, or by querying the percentile on the vulnerability curve (Figure database for an appropriate inventory 6.8). Given an event return period of 500 distribution. However, this can result using years, or an event that has a 1 in 500 chance the wrong construction type to determine the of occurring in a year, there is a 50% vulnerability function; therefore, structural probability, or 1 in 1000 chance, of the information must be as precise and complete damage estimate being exceeded. If the PIED as possible. estimate for a 500 year return period is greater than the PMD estimate for a 300 As with the seismic hazard module, year return period, the real risk could be there is uncertainty associated with each step under-estimated (Walker, unpublished). in the vulnerability module. As the complexity of a structure increases (e.g. Three assumptions should be made multiplex buildings), the uncertainty also when the ATC-13 vulnerability functions are increases since collapse of these structures applied to estimate damage in western Canada: 1. lag period between NBCC changes and dàtâi'C'à.:d;ed.itidiliti.e.Trieà.tfi.,..èd:br:•é.d.liée.e.•:. • implementation; 2. level of NBCC enforcement; and 3. given equal magnitude earthquakes, damage will be worse in Vancouver and modelling and data analysi -- the surrounding area, than in California. This is because Vancouver's NBCC standards for earthquakes are not as rigid - as those for California. (However, this could be updated soon.) As well, much data, uncertainty i n model -• • of Vancouver is powered by natural gas potentially to. ,•:. which could have serious repercussions . . in the event of fire-following. :tàtoprâness'..m' . enahle seismic. How do these assumptions change the results produced by the vulnerability

147 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models I are not well understood (EQECAT, individual analysis, each site is considered unpublished). This can result in over- independently. For a portfolio analysis, the estimation of damage. As well, it is assumed losses are statistically aggregated. Some I that structures are built to code, and financial modules also estimate probable maintained over time, which is not always expected losses (PED), based on a worst- the case. Failure to account for the case-scenario, and expected annual losses I condition of a structure could result in an (EAL), which account for all possible under-estimation of potential damage. earthquakes that may affect a site over a Finally, the conversions from IBC class to period of time. I ATC-13 class may further introduce uncertainty into the vulnerability module. Loss estimations are directly linked There are several other sources of to the cost of repairing damage. However, I uncertainty in the vulnerability module which following a catastrophe, the high demand for require further investigation. scarce materials and labour tends to drive up the costs of repair. The cost of inflation can I be substantial and therefore should be 6.6 Financial Module considered in the calculation of PML. Some models include the cost of inflation by I The final step in seismic risk modelling adjusting coinsurance and deductibles, others involves the estimation of losses in the have built-in inflation factors and some do I financial module. The purpose of the not acknowledge the issue. As well, the final financial module is to calculate the insured PML estimate should include the cost of losses of an earthquake based on three removing debris from the site before repairs I factors: insurance structure, structural can be made. damages estimated by the vulnerability module and cost to repair the damages In addition to calculating loss I incurred. estimates, another important function of the financial module is to quantify the A majority of seismic risk models uncertainty that pervades each component of t have financial modules which estimate the seismic risk model. Since the model is a probable maximum loss (PML) for property, decision making tool, some measure of contents and business interruption. To uncertainty should be associated with the I estimate gross loss, the cost of repair is loss estimates. This can be in the form of a calculated for each insured structure using level of confidence, standard deviation, the percent damage incurred by the confidence interval, or a range of loss I structure. Next, the insured value of the estimates. structure and policy limits are considered. I The same is done for contents and business interruption. 6.7 Review of Seismic Risk Models I Net PML is calculated by considering the insurance structure. That is, the layers of This section poses some questions that reinsurance, coinsurance, and retrocession should be considered before modelling I are subtracted from the gross PML. For seismic risk. It also examines three seismic I 148 1 I PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models risk models currently available to the Second, assessment of a company's insurance industry to aid in decision making risk can be performed either at the portfolio I and seismic risk management. Some attempt level, the individual level, or both, depending to validate the results of the models has on the model used. Before beginning an already been put forth by some of the assessment, the insurance company must I modelling companies (see Jones et al., 1995). decide at what level they wish to perform their analysis. This will likely produce There are several decisions that must different PML estimates. Depending on the I be made before an appropriate seismic risk resolution of the company's input data, this model can be selected. First, and foremost, decision could already be made. That is, if the company must decide what it hopes to the company's data is aggregated according I achieve by using a seismic risk model. This to cresta zone, it is not possible to perform a can be addressed by answering a few site-specific analysis. questions concerning the modelling effort. I That is: Finally, the company must also 1. How will results from the model be decide whether to have the analysis I used to assess the risk of a company? performed as a service by the model That is, will the results be used as the provider, or to license the model for in-house final estimation of probable maximum analysis. There are advantages and I loss (PML), or will they be used to disadvantages for both of these options. improve inputs for a more Using the model as a service ensures that a comprehensive and tailored PML qualified individual with a thorough I estimation method? This will help understanding of the model performs the determine both the necessary resolution analysis. However, the disadvantage is that of the data for input, and which model the service modeller may not have a I to use for the analysis. thorough understanding of the insurance data provided, or of the insurance industry. 2. Which cost calculations should be Licensing a model both I performed? For example, if only an 1. enables that an individual with a estimate of PML is required, there is thorough understanding of the no need to use a model that also company's data and the insurance I calculates probable expected losses industry performs the risk analysis, and (PEL), expected annual losses (EAL), 2. enables the company to get a better sense or other loss calculations. of the limitations, uncertainties and I sensitivities of the program, and also 3. What factors should be included in the enables more experimentation and model calculation of cost? This tailoring of the program to the company's I includes cost of seismic shaking given needs. property damage, content damage, However, there are many startup costs I business interruption, and/or secondary associated with licensing from hardware to costs due to fire-following, landslide, learning the program. As well, it is possible liquefaction, or inundation. Addressing that the uncertainty and error could increase I this question can aid in model initially depending on the skills, or selection. experience, of the in-house modeller. If the I analysis is performed as a service, usually the 149 1 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models I insurance company must provide detailed violate the laws of physics. As well, since information regarding portfolio building the seismic risk models are used as a decision inventory, insurance structure, and making tool, their sensitivities, uncertainties, I assumptions. and limitations also need to be understood. The information provided during the Finally, there are issues of data I review of the seismic hazard module quality and quantity. The quality of data (Section 6.4) can be used as a framework for affects model results. Data quality is both other modules in the seismic risk model, affected by the data sources, collection I and for the seismic risk model as a whole. procedure, accuracy, resolution, and This method of examination has been completeness. For example, in Ontario, the summarised in Figure 6.9. soil maps produced by the Geological Survey I of Canada (GSC) differ from those produced First, the science behind the what is by the Ontario Geological Survey (OGS) being modelled should be investigated. For because of collection procedure. Given the I instance, how well is damage to structures same soil type - 70% sand and 30% silt - the understood by engineers, and then modelled GSC will describe the soil as a sandy silt, by the vulnerability module. If the scientific while the OGS will call it a silty sand. If I community does not have a good these differences occur in Ontario, it is likely understanding of the hazard, modelling will that a similar problem could exist in other I be inherently limited. provinces and with respect to other measurements. Data quantity is affected by Second, potential users should the frequency of earthquakes, and the ability I review the purpose, application and to measure them. One of the problems with approach of each model. This allows the estimating insured losses due to earthquakes user to match the needs of the company with along the West Coast of Canada is the rarity t the appropriate model. of events. This limits the quantity and availability of attenuation and damage data. Third, all models simplify reality. In addition, there are issues of subjectivity in I Therefore, it is important to examine the the collection procedure, such as the case integrity of a model. This includes how well with Modified Mercalli Intensity a hazard is modelled, or what the measurement (MMI). Finally, issues of data I components of the model are. This matching and transfer functions need to be requires looking at the entire modelling investigated since this can decrease the process from user inputs, to database inputs, accuracy and increase the uncertainty I to each module through which the data is associated with the data. For instance, manipulated, to outputs. In order to converting peak ground accelerations to determine how well the seismic risk model MMI, or IBC classes to ATC-13 classes. I simulates the damages attributable to seismic These issues are usually addressed shaking, the model components must be throughout the model review. t examined. This includes the insurance inputs, and the seismic hazard, vulnerability, The objective now is to review some and financial analysis modules. Certain of the seismic risk models available to the I assumptions make this simplification insurance industry using the proposed possible, and these assumptions must not examination scheme. There are some areas I 150 1 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models

Seismic Situation Scientific Understanding I of Seismic Hazard Seismic Physiology source conditions Attenuation Functions ground motion site conditions

Purpose The Model Applications deterministic Approach — probabilistic

Insurance Inputs Seismic Hazard Module— attenuation Model Representation of Seismic Hazard vulnerability Vulnerability Module fimctions Financial Module PML calculatins

Assumptions Sensitivity I Model Sufficiency Uncertainty Limitations sources accuracy collection procedure Quali completeness availability Quantity' accessability

Objectivity

Resolution Data Matching transfer functions

Figure 6.9 Proposed method of seismic module evaluation.

151 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models I which overlap between the models, such as Risk Management Solutions - IRAS Model in the scientific understanding and data The purpose of Risk Management Solutions sufficiency of seismic hazard. These areas (RMS) IRAS model is to educate people on I need not be compared, but rather addressed risk associated with an earthquake (Figure as in the seismic hazard section (6.4). 6.11). This can be performed using both deterministic and probabilistic methods at the I 6. 7.1 The Models site-specific or portfolio levels. Losses are A preliminary examination of the Munich Re calculated primarily from damages due to Probable Maximum Loss Calculation model, less severe, but more frequent earthquake I the RMS - IRAS model, and the EQECAT - shaking, with estimates for landslide, EQEHazard model was performed using the liquefaction, and fire following. Results proposed evaluation scheme as a guideline. from the analysis are meant to: I Before comparing the models, they should be • provide information for input into the briefly reviewed. risk analysis methods of the company; • aid in underwriting and portfolio I Munich Re - Probable Maximum Loss management; Calculation Model • assess the quality of current rates; and 1 The purpose of the Munich Re model is to • evaluate incremental load risk placed on calculate the PML resulting from an a portfolio. earthquake, for a given property portfolio At this time, IRAS is the model most i (Figure 6.10). The model uses a commonly used to assess risk in Canada. probabilistic approach to calculate loss based The risk model can be provided as a service on damage from 1200 earthquakes. PML is by RMS, or licensed to the I calculated for losses due to property and insurance/reinsurance company. contents damage, and business interruption given earthquake shaking and fire following. EQECA T - EQEHazard I The model can be used to determine the The purpose of EQECAT's EQEHazard effectiveness of an underwriting strategy, model is to evaluate the risk due to an and as a decision making tool regarding earthquake by estimating catastrophic event I reinsurance protection. By using a losses for an individual risk or portfolio probabilistic approach, some measure of (Figure 6.12). A probabilistic approach is uncertainty is inherently provided with the used to estimate probable maximum loss, net I results. Though the Munich Re model has expected loss, and annual expected losses. been criticised for performing loss estimation Property, contents and business interruption by cresta zone, at the time of its development losses are calculated for earthquake shaking, I this was the only level of insurance data fault rupture, fire following, liquefaction, available. In response to improvements in landsliding, tsunami, inundation, and I insurance portfolio information, Munich Re hazardous material release. The objectives is developing 6-digit postal code site are to: facilitate policy writing for analyses capabilities for its model. The underwriters; evaluate existing books; I model is currently provided as a free service develop strategies for managing to its clients. catastrophes; determine pure premium; and test scenarios. EQECAT has had limited I activity in Canada, however, it is gaining I 152 1 I PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models I I I

I Inputs Modules Outputs

I Source Information Seismic Hazard Seismic Shaking 1200 earthquakes Intensity (M1VII) Site Conditions Module I Attenuation Equations Vulnerability Damage Estimate Building Inventory (% Structure) I Vulnerability Functions Module

I PML Portfolio PML Curve Policy Information (% loss; figure x.x) I Insurance Structure Calculation 1 I Figure 6.10 The Munich RE PML calculation model. I I I I I 153 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS t Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models t t

Inputs Module Outputs I Property Location I User Type of Analysis ground motion - deterministic 1 at a site (PGA) - probabilistic Hazard Module I landslide Seismic source liquefaction Geotechnical I Hazard I Damage to: Building Inventory - property - class, height, age - contents - configuration, ... Vulnerability - B.I. Module Vulnerability Loss due to: Curves - fault rupture I - landslide Shaking - liquefaction Intensity

Insured Value: - property Financial Loss - contents Financial Estimates: - B.I. Module - individual analysis - portfolio analysis Structure: I - deductibles - limits - reinsurance ... I I Figure 6.11 IRAS earthquake model flowchart. Source: Risk Management Solutions, unpublished. I I I 154 I PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models

EStart_D

1 Input source zone information

Input local soil conditions

ç Calculate Mits/f1 at each postal code \

Input building informatioh

t Calculate damage factor \ ,/

Calculate dollar loss and output data D

w (Stop

Figure 6.12 EQE Hazard loss estimation method. Source: Jones et al., 1995.

155 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models I attention. Due to its complex nature, accelerations (PGA) and NIlVII. As well, the EQEHazard has been offered as a service. RMS and EQECAT attenuation equations However, EQECAT hopes to have the differ. The RMS attenuation equation is a I model ready for licensing by 1997. function of site to source distance and peak ground acceleration. Site conditions are 6. 7.2 Examination of the Seismic accounted for in a separate step. In contrast, I Risk Models EQECAT uses a logic tree approach to Table 6.6 reviews the preliminary results of weight the average of three attenuation the proposed examination scheme for the equations which are functions of rupture I Munich Re, RMS, and EQECAT models. length, site to source distance, PGA, shaking The models are compared generally. The duration, and site conditions. Each model purpose and applications of each model is uses modified vulnerability functions to I revisited, followed by a brief review of the estimate damages, and each model calculates approaches used to estimate seismic risk and loss in a different way. I losses, that is, deterministic vs. probabilistic modelling. The primary and secondary Model integrity is examined by consequences of an earthquake accounted reviewing the major assumptions, t for by the models are assessed based on the sensitivities, uncertainties and limitations of modules within the seismic risk models. For the three models (Table 6.8). Since the example, the Munich Re model investigates models often use the same data and scientific t the cost of earthquake shaking and fire principles, many of the uncertainties and following. The RMS model uses earthquake limitations are shared. The differences shaking and fire loss, and also includes between the models tend to occur in how t landslide and liquefaction losses. In addition unknowns are treated, the assumptions made to these modules, the EQECAT model and the sensitivities of the seismic includes loss estimates due to inundation, parameters. t fault rupture, and hazardous materials release. 6.8 Summary and t Representation of seismic hazard is Recommendations explored by reviewing the components of the model: the insurance inputs, seismic hazard, The different seismic risk models available to I vulnerability, and loss calculations (Table the insurance industry all have a similar 6.7). Insurance inputs are nearly identical structure. First, each requires insurance I for all three models, except that the Munich input data including building inventory, Re model currently uses cresta zone to insurance structure, and seismic event specify building location. The seismic hazard parameters. Next, each has a seismic hazard I modules differ in their treatment of ground module which uses the seismic event data motion, attenuation, and site conditions. For and building location in attenuation functions example, the Munich Re model uses to estimate seismic shaking at a site. Each I Guttenberg-Richter magnitude, then model then uses a vulnerability module to Modified Mercalli Intensity (MNII) to estimate the extent of damage at the site measure ground motion while the RMS and based on the site seismic shaking. Finally, I EQECAT models use peak ground each model has a financial module that I 156 M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M

Table 6.6 Preliminary review of seismic risk models

Earthquake Loss Estimation Model Munich RE Earthquake PML Model Risk Management Solutions - IRAS EQECAT - EQEHazard Purpose • calculation of the PML resulting • educate people in the insurance • catastrophic event loss estimation for from earthquake for a given industry of the risk associated with a an individual risk or portfolio property portfolio or individual risks natural catastrophe • evaluation of risk due to earthquakes • individual risk or portfolio anal sis Applications • reinsurance protection decision • provide information for input into the • facilitate policy writing for making tool risk analysis methods of the company underwriters • determine effectiveness of • underwriting aid • evaluate existing books underwriting strategy • portfolio management • estimate PML • assess quality of current rates • develop catastrophe management • evaluate incremental load risk places strategy on portfolio. • determine pure premium • scenario testing Approach • probabilistic: probability of loss • probabilistic - loss over time, Currently for the US model (not yet occurrence (not event reoccurrence) exceeding probability implemented for Canada): • deterministic - scenario, maximum • probabilistic credible, bounded max., user defined • logic tree approach to weighted earthquakes average of three attenuation • model less severe but more frequent equations earthquake Modules • earthquake shaking: • seismic hazard: • earthquake shaking: • seismic hazards (including • shaking • hazards model, vulnerability liquifaction) • landslide functions, computational models • vulnerability • liquefaction Other hazards in the US model, not • financial • vulnerability currently available for the Canadian • fire following (model takes on • fire loss model: deterministic approach, not • financial • fault rupture probability of occurrence) • fire following • liquefaction • landsliding • tsunami • inundation • hazardous material release Table 6.7 Components of the seismic risk models

Seismic Risk Model Munich RE Earthquake PML Model Risk Management Solutions - IRAS EQECAT - EQEHazard Insurance Inputs Building Inventory Building Inventory Building Inventory • longitude/latitude • building location - 3 or 6 digit • building location - 6 digit postal • building location - 3 or 6 digit postal postal code. Cresta zone code (converted to cresta zones or code. Cresta zone capabilities capabilities lat/long by program) or GPS for • construction class • construction class - IBC converted remote sites • year of construction to ATC-13 within model • building construction - type, age, • building exterior, cladding, frame, • year of construction material of construction, IBC height, ornamentation, occupancy,... • building exterior, cladding, frame, structural codes • building contents height, ornamentation, occupancy, • year built, building code design Policy Data and Insurance Structure effects • deductible, limits, reinsurance treaties • building contents Insurance Information Policy Data and Insurance Structure • insured value, deductible, • deductible, limits occurrence layers, reinsurance structure, site and policy limits, facultative and treaties Seismic Hazard • line and area sources • select line source or area source - 31 • updated seismic hazard model Module • seismic shaking measure (MMI, possible zones, 24 in area of from Geological Survey of PGA) Vancouver Island Canada (GSC) • site conditions: soil type • seismic shaking measure (PGA, • multiple models - H (historic) and • liquefaction and landslide potential MMI) R (regional) models • attenuation = F(distance, soil, source • site conditions: soil type • line faults and area sources type) • liquefaction and landslide potential • quantify event: location of fault, • attenuation = F (distance, soil type of fault, maximum PGA) magnitude, rupture length, duration, ground motion (PGA) • site soil conditions from database • attenuation = F(distance, rupture length, PGA, duration, site conditions)_

M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ M

Seismic Risk Model Munich RE Earthquake PML Model Risk Management Solutions - IRAS EQECAT - EQEHazard Earthquakes • analysis of specific earthquake ' • analysis of specific earthquake • comprehensive model with scenarios, or probabilistic analyses scenarios, or probabilistic analyses representation of sources in • maximum magnitudes defined using using all regional sources. eastern and western Canada historical events and geological • maximum magnitudes defined using • specification of earthquake characteristics of source historical events and geological Magnitudes • source model integrates work of GSC characteristics of source • building code specified return period • user specified • historical • deterministic (scenario) or probabilistic analyses Vulnerability • IBC class converted to ATC-13 • IBC class converted to ATC-13 • IBC codes converted to ATC-13 Module classification classification classification • modified ATC-13 vulnerability • modified ATC-13 vulnerability • modified ATC-13 vulnerability functions based on input from functions functions which include field Canadian consultants observation and shake table experiments • world's largest database of earthquake damage effects • damage is calculated for each individual property and summed to calculate the damage factor for a portfolio

Table 6.7 continued on next page... Q Table 6.7 (continued) Components of the seismic risk models

Seismic Risk Model Munich RE Earthquake PML Model Risk Management Solutions - IRAS EQECAT - EQEHazard Financial Outputs • Catastrophe PML calculation in % as • Average Annual Loss - pure • Calculates loss to buildings, a function of probability of loss premium, loss cost before expenses contents, business interruption occurrence and other loads • Effects of post-event inflation • Damage amounts for buildings, • PML (%) calculation given 250 may be included, at user's option contents, business interruption and year event and excedence • PML and PMD are calculated for property of every description for probability curve. Return period is worst case scenarios using the given part subdivided into personal adjustable. damage factor at the 90th commercial business • Post-event inflation can be percentile of the vulnerability • Post-event inflation may be accounted accounted for using a user-defined probability distribution, or can be for by adjusting co-insurance and scaling factor user specified deductibles • Individual loss detail • NEL and NED are calculated at • Insurance layer and reinsurance the 50th percentile rn structure loss • Loss and damage both include 0 limits and deductibles • Expected Annual Loss calculated Measure of • disclaimer • variance, confidence intervals and • confidence interval associated Uncertainty probability distributions with outputs; calculates means, standard deviations, and/or probability distributions • full loss exceedance curve generated from probabilistic analysis Validation efforts • actual event calibration • currently underway at UBC • Northridge Earthquake (Jones et • review/input from Canadian al, 1995) consultants • peer reviewed • hazard verified against Geological Survey of Canada (GSC) model for various locations

^ M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M Table 6.8 Integrity of seismic risk models

Model Sufficiency Munich RE Earthquake PML Model IRAS EQECAT Canada Unknowns • averages used as substitute • weighted average of potential attributes • some possibility of PML based on regional inventory characteristics underestimation due to averaging • increases uncertainty in loss estimate according to importance of information and level of uncertainty in unknown data • places property at geometric or occupancy weighted centroid of postal code for unknown locations • distributes exposure over likely classes, or distribution of inventory — if building class ).0 is unlcnown Assumptions • within area source, earthquake has • within source area, earthquake has equal • structures built to code equal probability of occurring along probability of occurring along any • lag between building code ON any segment; rate of occurrence of segment; rate of occurrence of events • uniform probability of 0 events within source divided equally within source divided equally among occurrence of earthquakes among segments segments anywhere along or within • vulnerability curves vary based on • structures built to code faults or area sources year of construction to reflect • lag between building code amendment and 0 building code changes implementation Ch Vulnerability functions are presently under a review, however currently: pt • vulnerability of structures in BC higher er than that in California, but lower than the 6: Sei east coast • since building code requirements same for smi

eastern and western Canada, same c vulnerability functions applied to both Ri sk

areas M

• see treatment of unknovvn data table figure odel 5.6 s Table 6.8 continued on next page... Table 6.8 (continued) Integrity of seismic risk models

Model Sufficiency Munich RE Earthquake PML Model IRAS EQECAT Canada Sensitivities • MMI • exposure data have significant impact • quality of input data on loss estimate • MMI in fire loss model Common • randomness of occurrence and magnitude of events Uncertainties • as resolution of data decreases, uncertainty increases • uncertainty due to unknowns: increases with increasing unknowns • quality of exposure data • analysis of historic or pre-instrumentation events • ground motion attenuation functions • source uncertainty: location of faults, depth to hypocenter, distance from epicenter • ground motion measurement: MMI • site uncertainty: soil information, soil amplification effects • building data: assessments, square footage, material, date of construction • building performance, damage factor, vulnerability functions, damage curves of ATC-13 • increasing uncertainty with increasing complexity of structure • landslide, liquefaction (not currently addressed in EQE Canadian model) • ensuing fire components Common • limited by quality of data input, accuracy and completeness of exposure data Limitations • resolution of analvsis • aggregation and averaging of information general lack of Canadian seismic damage data

M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M I PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models calculates the potential insured losses given 6. This analysis should be repeated for the extent of property and content damage, Wind Models. t business interruption, and insurance structure. References The seismic risk models differ in their purposes, applications, secondary Allen, D. E. (1986). Tornado damage in the effects considered, attenuation and Barrie/Orangeville Area, Ontario, May, 1985. I vulnerability functions, assumptions, National Research Council, Ottawa. sensitivities, and other more minor functions. Anglin, F. M., Wetmiller, R. J., Homer, R. B., They will also differ in services and support Rogers, G. C. and Drysdale, J. A. (1990). I provided, and operation costs. Seismicity Map ofCanada. Geological Survey of Canada. Canadian Geophysical Atlas, Map 15. The purpose of this section has been Scale: 1:10 000 000. I to explain the process of seismic risk Ansary, M. A., Yamazaki, F., Katayama, T. (1995). modelling, and to provide a method by which Statistical analysis of peaks and directivity of I to examine the models currently available for earthquake ground motion. Earthquake risk management. In addition to this, other Engineering and Structural Dynamics 24: 1527- questions should be considered, this time 1539. regarding the company producing the model. I Arias, A. (1970). A measure of earthquake This includes how often databases are intensity. In: Seismic Design for Nuclear Power updated, what kind of support is offered by Plants. Hansen, R. J. (ed.). MIT Press, I the company, how credible the company is, Cambridge. and what time and space costs will be incurred. Atwater, B. F., Nelson, A. R., Clague, J. L., Carver, I G. A., Yamaguchi, D. K., Bobrowsky, P. T., Recommendations Bourgeois, J., Darienzo, M. E., Grant, W. C., Hemphill-Haley, E., Kelsey, H. M., Jacobi, G. 1. Watch National Geographic's C., Nishenko, S. P., Palmer, S. P., Peterson, C. I documentary on natural hazards: Born D. and Reinhart, M. (1995). Summary of of Fire coastal geologic evidence for past great 2. This analysis should also be performed earthquakes at the cascadia subduction zone. I for Eastern Canada. Earthquake Spectra 11: 1-18. 3. A similar examination of the Brooks, G. and Vincent, S. (personal vulnerability and financial modules communication). Geological Survey of Canada, I should be undertaken. The seismic 1996. hazard portion of the risk models should be studied in greater detail. Campbell, D. D. (unpublished). Seismicity of t Cascadia Subducting Plate. Manuscript. March 4. Landslide, liquefaction, inundation, 19, 1996. and fire following modules were not I addressed in this document and need to Campbell, K. W. (1989). The dependence of peak be evaluated in a similar manner. horizontal acceleration on magnitude, distance, 5. Other risk models, such as Risk and site effects for small magnitude earthquakes in California and eastern North America. Engineers' EQCanada, should also be I Bulletin of the Seismological Society ofAmerica I reviewed. 79: 1311-1339. 163 1 PART 4: COMPUTER MODELS OF PROBABLE MAXIMUM LOSS I Chapter 6: Seismic Risk Models I Crouse, C. B. (1991). Ground motion attenuation Munich Reinsurance Company of Canada (Munich for earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction Re). (1990). The calculation of the probable zone. Earthquake Spectra 7: 201-236. maximum loss (PML) resulting from earthquake. Munich Re Insurance Company document. I EERI Committee on Seismic Risk. (1989). The basics of seismic risk analysis. Earthquake Rauch, E. (personal communication). Munich Re, Spectra 5: 675-702. 1996. I Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC). Risk Management Solutions (RMS). (unpublished). (unpublished). NHEMATIS Progress Report. IRAS Canada Earthquake Model. 1995. 1996. I Rogers, G. C. ( 1994). Earthquakes in the Vancouver EQECAT, Inc. (unpublished). CAT Loss Modelling area. In: Geology and Geological Hazards of Methodology. 1995. the Vancouver Region, Southwestern British Columbia, Monger, J. W. H. (ed.). Geological Heaton, T.H. and Hartzell, S.H. (1987). EQ hazards Survey of Canada, Bulletin 481: 221-229. on the cascadia subduction zone. Science 236: 162-168. Rogers, G. C. (1988). An assessment of the megathrust potential of the Cascadia subduction Hyndman, R. D., Yorath, C. J., Clowes, R. M., zone. Canadian Journal of Earth Science 25: Davis, E. E. (1990). The northern cascadia 844-852. I subduction zone at Vancouver Island: seismic structure and tectonic history. Canadian Rogers, G. C. (personal communication). Geological Journal ofEarth Science 27: 313-329. Survey of Canada, August 19, 1996. I Jones, N. P., Thorvaldsdottir, S., Liu, A., Narayan, Rogers, G. C. (unpublished). Response to P., and Warthen, T. (1995). Evaluation of a loss "Seismicity of Cascadia Subducting Plate" by D. I estimation procedure based on data from the D. Campbell. 1996. Loma Prieta earthquake. Earthquake Spectra 11: 37-61. Smith, K. (1996). Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster. I Kayen, R E. and Mitchell, J. K. (1996). Arias Routledge Publishers, New York. Chapter 6. intensity approach for assessing liquefaction potential of the ground during earthquakes. In Tung, A. T. Y., Wong, F. S., Dong, W. (1994). I preparation. Prediction of the spatial distribution of the modified mercalli intensity using neural Kayen, R. E., Mitchell, J. K. and Holzer, T. L. networks. Earthquake Engineering and (1994). Ground motion characteristics and their Structural Dynamics 23: 49-62. I relation to soil liquefaction at the Wildlife Liquefaction Array, Imperial Valley, California. Walker, G. R. (unpublished). Catastrophe Loss In: Proceedings from the Fifth U.S Japan Modelling. Getting the Most out of the Results. I Workshop on Earthquake Resistant Design of Technical Services Bulletin. Alexander Howden Lifeline Facilities and Countermeasures Against Canada Limited, 1996. Soil Liquefaction, O'Rourke, T. D. and Hamada, M. (eds.). pp. 267-283. H

Lamarre, M., Townshend, B. and Shah, H. C. (1992). Application of the bootstrap method to I quantify uncertainty in seismic hazard estimates. Bulletin of the Seismological Society ofAmerica 82: 104-119. I I 164 I PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS by Lindsay Wallace

Introduction 165

7.0 Mitigating Natural Hazards and Their Effects 7.1 Introduction 167 7.2 Physical Mitigation 167 7.2.1 Federal Government 168 Agriculture and Agrifoods Canada (AGAFC) 168 Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) 168 Environment Canada 168 National Research Council (NRC) 168 Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) 168 7.2.2 Joint Federal-Provincial Program 168 7.2.3 Provincial Governments 169 7.2.4 Municipal Governments 169 7.2.5 Public Institutions 170 7.2.6 Insurance Industry 170 7.2.7 Individual Homeowners 171 7.3 Financial Mitigation 171 7.3.1 Federal Regulators 171 7.3.2 Provincial Regulators 171 7.3.3 Insurance Industry 172 7.4 Summary 173 References 173

8.0 Preparing for an Emergency 8.1 Introduction 174 8.2 Emergency Planning 174 8.2.1 Federal Government 174 Emergency Preparedness Canada (ERG) 174 Agriculture and Agri-food Canada (AGAFC) 174 Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) 175 Canadian Heritage 175 Environment Canada 175 Fisheries and Oceans 175 Foreign Affairs and International Trade 175 Health Canada 175 Indian and Northern Affairs Canada aNAC) 176 Industry Canada 176 Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) 176 Public Works and Government Services Canada (PWGSC) 176 Solicitor General Canada 176 Transport Canada 177 I

Treasury Board of Canada ...... 177 8.2.2 Joint Federal-Provincial Initiatives ...... 177 I Joint Emergency Preparedness Program (JEPP) ...... 177 CANA TEX 2 ...... 177 8.2.3 Provincial Governments ...... 178 I British Columbia ...... 178 Alberta ...... 179 Saskatchewan ...... ---...... ----•--...... 179 I Ontario ...... 179 Newfoundland...... 180 8.2.4 Municipal Responsibilities ...... 180 I Regina ...... 180 Vancouver ...... 18 0 I 8.2.5 Business and the Insurance Industry ...... 182 Claims Emergency Response Plans (CERPs) ...... 182 Emergency Preparednessfor Industry and Commerce Council (EPICC)...... 182 I Planning for Resumption of Business ...... 183 8.2.6 Individuals ...... 183 8.3 Warnings and Monitoring ...... 183 I 8.3.1 Federal Government ...... 183 Environment Canada ...... - - - ...... 183 Natural Resources Canada ...... 183 I Other Departments and Agencies ...... 184 8.3.2 Provincial Government ...... I ...... 184 British Columbia ...... 184 I Alberta ...... 184 Ontario ...... 185 8.4 Summary ...... 185 I References ...... 185 I 9.0 Disaster Response and Relief 9.1 Introduction ...... 187 Federal Government ...... 187 I 9.2 Responding to National Emergencies ...... 188 Agriculture and Agri food Canada (AGAFQ ...... 188 188 i Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) ...... Environment Canada ...... 188 Finance ...... 188 I Fisheries and Oceans ...... 188 Health Canada ...... 189 Human Resources Development Canada (HRD) ...... 189 I Industry Canada ...... 189 Justice ...... 189 National Defence/Canadian Forces ...... 189 I Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) ...... 190 Public Works and Government Services Canadà'(PWGSC) ...... 190 Solicitor General ...... 190 I Transport Canada ...... 190 1 Treasury Board ...... 191 N Federal Involvement in Provincial Emergencies ...... 191 9.3 Provincial Governments ...... 191 9.3.1 British Columbia ...... 192 Provincial Emergency Program (PEP) ...... 192 Agriculture, Fisheries and Food ...... 192 A ttorney General ...... 192 I Environment, Lands and Parks ...... 193 Forests ...... 193 Government Services ...... 193 I Health ..:...... 193 Municipal Affairs ...... 193 Social Services ...... 193 I 194 Transportation and Highways ...... British Columbia Ferry Corporation ...... 194 I British Columbia Hydro And Power Authority ...... 194 British Columbia Rail Limited ...... 194 Other Government Co.rnorations ...... 194 I 9.3.2 Other Provinces ...... 194 9.4 Municipalities ...... 195 Edmonton ...... 195 I 9.5 Voluntary Agencies ...... --...... 196 9.6 Business and the Insurance Industry ...... 196 9.7 Individuals ...... 196 t 9.8 Co-ordination ...... 197 9.9 Summary ...... 197 I References ...... 197 10.0 Recovery I 10.1 Introduction ...... 199 10.2 Federal Government ...... 199 10.3 Federal-Provincial Programs ...... 201 I ...... 201 10.4 Provincial Governments Alberta ...... -...... 201 t Saskatchewan ...... 201 10.5 Municipalities ...... 202 10.6 Business and the Insurance Industry ...... 202 H 10.7 Crop Insurance ...... 202 10.7.1 The Federal Government ...... 202 10.7.2 The Provincial Governments ...... 204 i Saskat chewan ...... 204 O_uebec ...... 204 Nova Scotia ...... 205 Newfoundland ...... 206 10.8 Summary ...... 206 I References ...... - .- - - ...... 206 I PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS

PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL IIAZARDS by Lindsay Wallace Introduction

Chapters 7-10 examine how Canadian society manages the total risk for natural hazards. Canada has developed a patchwork of publicly funded programs and private market services, encompassing four main types of response activities: mitigation (Chapter 7), preparation for an emergency (Chapter 8), response to a disaster (Chapter 9), and recovey (Chapter 10).

These activities are performed in its financial impact would be quite what we term the "human response cycle" widespread due to this underfunded liability (FEMA, 1996). Mitigation and preparation (LBC, 1994a). Private and public occur prior to a disaster, while response and responsibilities for all lcinds of mitigation are recovery are initiated by it. Ideally, also outlined in this chapter. mitigation and preparation should address flaws in earlier response and recovery Preparing for an emergency (Chapter endeavours. Assessing previous efforts 8) is the process of planning for and warning increases the ability to cope with natural people about natural hazards. While it is a hazards and minimize their effects. Outside form of mitigation, we are considering it as this response cycle, a variety of factors distinct. Activities include emergency determine the socioeconomic impact of planning, ensuring adequate response, and natural hazards on Canadian society; these providing effective warning. As such, may be geographical, demographic, emergency planning is inherently linked to economic, financial, and even psychological. emergency response efforts.

Mitigation of natural hazards After a disaster strikes, emergency (Chapter 7) is the means by which people response efforts (Chapter 9) are initiated. strive in advance to reduce the effects of These activities include government and natural hazards. Most effort focuses on private responses to emergency medical reducing the physical effects of a hazard and needs and fires, evacuation, and include changes in land use and in establishment of shelters and feeding stations enforcement of building codes. This chapter — in other words, ensuring the safety of the also looks at mitigation of hazards and of population. Secondary activities include financial impact. Ideally, the best form of restoring essential services, such as mitigation is the total elimination of the electricity, telecommunications links, and hazard, which is not technically feasible. water services, as well as private efforts such Recent experiments to seed storm clouds as sending adjusters to deal with insurance have not always met with success. As for claims. financial impact, an example is the current underfunded liability faced by the property Finally, efforts at disaster recovery and casualty insurance industry as a result of (Chapter 10) occur after peoples' immediate earthquake exposure. Were a large needs have been addressed. They include earthquake to hit the lower B.C. mainland, private- and public-sector payouts from

165 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL ® AZARDS I I insurance schemes and financing arrangements. They also encompass public and private rebuilding. Ideally, rebuilding I should occur with mitigation in mind so that over time the impact of disasters will be reduced. These activities are explored in I Chapter 10.

These four chapters are intended to I provide the reader with an overview of the types of programs and services provided by private and public agencies. It is by no I means a complete list. Given that most provinces and municipalities have similar departmental structures, to list all programs I and services would make for a monotonous paper. Moreover, time constraints made such a task impossible. We chose examples primarily on the basis of availability of data. Consequently, many examples are from British Columbia, where information on emergency measures is widespread. Furthermore, much of that province's I emergency preparedness focuses on earthquake threat, as reflected in the examples drawn from this region. We do not I in any way intend, however, to minimize the hazardousness of other communities and provinces in Canada. .1

I I I 1

166 I t PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS I Chapter 7: Mitigating Natural Hazards and Their Effects 7.0 Mitigating Natural Hazards and Their Effects I by Lindsay Wallace 7.1 Introduction I Individuals and society use a range of techniques to mitigate the effects of hazards and reduce vulnerability to them. While the division between mitigating a hazard and preparing for an emergency is somewhat arbitrary, we consider as mitigation any activity that reduces the effects I of the hazard. In this chapter we examine both physical andfinancial mitigation. First, we consider various bodies'responsibility for mitigating the physical effects of hazards. Second, we explore efforts to mitigate the potentialfinancial effects of the insurance industry's underfunded I liability.

A variety of techniques are available Public support becomes strong only after a I to mitigate the effect of natural hazards on disaster (Petak and Anderson, 1982). Fiscal buildings and other structures. One can, for constraints and lack of public support may example, reinforce existing buildings, ensure well hinder development of new measures. I that new construction meets standards, and To increase public support and encourage prevent development in hazard-prone areas individuals to attempt mitigation requires such as floodplains. Specific mitigation financial incentives and public education. J techniques vary by hazard; most fall within Both insurance and tax incentives can the jurisdiction of local and municipal encourage or compel policy holders and governments. taxpayers to increase their own activities in I this direction. Public education can also A brief note about one natural hazard motivate people to act. Responsibility for I that humans think they can physically mitigation lies with municipal and local mitigate - hail. The Alberta Severe Weather governments, with provincial and federal Management Society, composed of governments providing back-up research. I representatives from the insurance industry, government, and academe, has been experimenting with seeding of clouds to try 7.2 Physical Mitigation I to mitigate the impact of hail storms on the prairies. This program is similar to one Responsibility in Canada for mitigating the operating in North Dakota. As shown above physical effects of hazards is spread among I in Chapter 2, injection of silver iodide into seven groups - the federal government storm clouds can render the resulting hail (research), joint federal-provincial smaller and thus less damaging. arrangements (on reducing flood damage), I the provinces (flood mitigation and setting One impediment to increased construction standards), municipal mitigation of natural hazards in Canada is authorities (flood mitigation and enforcing I lack of incentive, particularly in areas where building standards), public institutions the last major disaster occurred long ago or (research), the insurance industry (promoting I where the probability of a disaster is low. mitigation), and individual homeowners Given current fiscal constraints, increased (private mitigation efforts). spending on mitigation seems unlikely. I I 167 ^') C1 . 1 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS I Chapter 7: Mitigating Natural Hazards and Their Effects I 7 2.1 Federal Government National Research Council (NRC) The federal government conducts research The NRC conducts research into seismic on natural-hazards mitigation through five evaluation through the Institute for Research I departments and agencies. A number of in Construction (IRC). IRC research differs departments conduct. research and educate from that of the Geological Survey in that it citizens about mitigation, and others could focuses on the impact of seismic events on I potentially play a role. (Emergency buildings. This research is used in the setting Preparedness Canada, the primary federal of construction standards under the National agency planning for hazards - see Chapters 8 Building Code of Canada (NBCC), which and 9 - does not have an explicit mandate has, since 1941, contained provisions on for disaster mitigation. Its U.S. counterpart, seismic loading based on national seismic the Federal Emergency Management Agency zoning maps. A new building code is being I (FEMA), does, however, and views planned for the west coast for the year 2000. promotion of mitigation as essential. Seismic-loading standards are established to . Furthermore, Revenue Canada could prevent structural collapse during a major 1 potentially make mitigative retrofits to earthquake and thereby protect human life. homes tax deductible.) The provisions will not, however, prevent serious damage to structures (IBC, 1994a). I Agriculture and Agrifoods Canada (AGAFC) Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) t AGAFC is responsible for the farm sector in Natural Resources Canada is one of several Canada. It conducts research on crop strains science-based government departments. It that can withstand long periods of drought. ensures sustainable development of natural r It also investigates drought-sensitive farming resources. One of its branches, the techniques. Geological Survey of Canada, conducts research into seismicity and earthquake t Canadian Mortgage and Housing exposure, which is widely used in zoning Corporation (CMHC) maps (IBC, 1994a). Another branch, the The CMHC is a crown corporation that Canadian Forest Service, conducts research t provides mortgage insurance and conducts into techniques for wildfire mitigation. research on housing matters. Like the NRC, it conducts some limited research into 7.2.2 Joint Federal-Provincial I disaster-proof construction. Program The joint federal-provincial Flood Damage I Environment Canada Reduction Program (FDRP) is a major Environment Canada's goal is to make mitigative tool used by both levels of sustainable development a reality through government. Flooding destroys more I protection, conservation, and restoration of property in Canada than any other natural the natural environment. It is responsible for hazard (Newton et al., 1996). Established in conducting research into flooding and 1975, the FDRP promotes use of non- I represents Ottawa on federal-provincial structural means of flood control through steering committees established under the mapping and designation of areas as flood- Flood Damage Reduction Program (see prone. The purpose of the program is I Section 7.2.2). Environment Canada also threefold. First, it seeks to reduce loss of life conducts research on atmospheric hazards. I 168 I PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 7: Mitigating Natural Hazards and Their Effects

and minimise human suffering due to Ottawa River Regulation Planning Board is flooding. Second, it attempts to reduce the responsible for ensuring integrated financial burden of disaster losses. Third, it management of the principal reservoirs of the seeks to reduce the need for expensive, river's basin. The board's goal is to reduce structural flood-control projects (Newton et flood damage along the river, on its al., 1996). tributaries, and in the Montreal area. It also administers and co-ordinates inflow The program is administered under forecasting, flow routing, and optimisation terms of a series of federal-provincial models to reduce flood damage while agreements. Each province has a steering affecting users of the basin as little as committee composed of representatives from possible. the provincial ministry of environment or natural resources and from Environment In Ontario, the Ministry of Natural Canada. These committees oversee FDRP Resources also involves itself in flood mapping. For each area designated as flood- mitigation. Its Conservation Authorities prone, neither level of government will build, Section encourages conservation and wise approve, or finance development or provide use of water and related resources by financial disaster assistance for any providing advice and grants to regional development built after such designation. conservation authorities to support such Provincial authorities encourage resource-management projects as watershed municipalities to zone land on the basis of planning, flood prevention, and flood-control flood risk. For more than 20 years, the works, including dams. The Aquatic FDRP has worked with 900 communities, at Ecosystems Branch leads in development of a cost of approximately $40 million (Newton policies and programs related to aquatic et al., 1996). ecosystems, including flood-tisk management, watershed planning, flood- 7.2.3 Provincial Governments damage reduction, and dam safety Provincial governments set standards and (Government of Ontario, 1996). advise municipal governments in matters of mitigation and are also active in flood 7.2.4 Municipal Governments mitigation. Several provide standards for Most mitigative activities are municipal, building construction. In Saskatchewan, for including land-use planning and management instance, the Ministry of Municipal Services and building-code enforcement. sets standards for construction. Municipalities must abide by provincial Saskatchewan, like many other provinces, building codes and may create by-laws to recommends that municipalities adopt the extend or enhance their requirements (MC, National Building Code of Canada 1994a). For example, Calgary's Planning and (Government of Saskatchewan, 1995). The Building Department is responsible for land provincial government may also advise use and building permits; it also enforces municipalities on how best to enforce these conditions of approval (City of Calgary, standards. 1996). Most municipalities in Canada have similar departments. The Ministries of Environment in Ontario and Quebec are active in flood Vancouver, because of its earthquake mitigation along the Ottawa River. The risk, has undertaken a variety of mitigation

169 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 7: Mitigating Natural Hazards and Their E ffects

efforts. First, it has applied NBCC hazards group, and UBC's seismic guidelines to its building stock, identifying researchers. 15,000 structures with potential problems and more than 1000 requiring further 7.2.6 Insurance Industry evaluation (BC, 1994a). The Insurance Aside from its activities in the Alberta Severe Bureau of Canada (IBC) feels that the city Weather Management Society, the insurance has been particularly slow in implementing industry in Canada has not been very active retrofitting of problematic buildings (IBC, in mitigating physical impact, though it is 1994a). The Vancouver School Board beginning to strengthen its role. The assessed its building stock and found that Insurance Bureau of Canada (LBC) has half of its schools required seismic undertaken a three-year project to study upgrading. In the past three years, the board earthquake-mitigation techniques. The has spent $11 million to upgrade two of its insurance industry has not yet offered schools at greatest risk (IBC, 1994a). financial incentives to individuals to Second, an $11-million project to upgrade implement mitigation techniques in homes the city's older bridges seismically is nearing and businesses. completion (City of Vancouver, 1996). In the United States, where the costs Metropolitan Toronto (Metro) was of natural hazards have been much greater, particularly active in mitigation activities insurers have been promoting mitigation following the devastating Hurricane Hazel in through two programs. First, the Insurance 1954. As a result of the flooding caused by Institute for Property Loss Reduction the hurricane, Metro bought all marginal (IIPLR), a non-profit organisation, was floodplain land and rezoned it as public established by 300 firms that write more than parkland (Environment Canada, 1996). It half of U.S. property insurance premiums. has been suggested that newly developed 'PLR's mission is to conduct research and to shoreland in Metro's neighbouring disseminate pertinent information to the municipalities is vulnerable to flooding . public. It has been working with city and during a period of high water levels in the state officials in Los Angeles to set up a Great Lakes (Grima, pers. comm.). program to assist residents in retrofitting homes to make them more resistant to 7.2.5 Public Institutions damage from earthquakes (Covaleslci, 1995). Other publicly funded institutions such as universities and public utilities conduct Second, the U.S. Insurance Services research on natural-hazard mitigation. For Office (ISO) rates the effectiveness of local example, B.C. Hydro is a world leader in enforcement of building codes. Its Building landslide mitigation. The Disaster Research Code Effectiveness Grading Schedule allows Unit at the University of Manitoba, the insurers to vary premiums, depending on Disaster Preparedness Resource Centre at local enforcement (Covaleski, 1995). In the University of British Columbia (UBC), Florida, an estimated 25 to 30 % of losses and the Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel from Hurricane Andrew could have been Laboratory at the University of Western avoided, had codes been enforced; the state Ontario conduct research in hazard now forces municipalities to pay a surcharge mitigation. So do Ontario Hydro, an expert for not participating in the ISO's building- in flooding, Carleton University's natural- code-rating program.

170 I PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS I Chapter 7.• Mitigating Natural Hazards and Their Effects 7.2. 7 Individual Homeowners with the solvency and stability of companies Individual homeowners can protect their registered under federal statute. Its mission I property through structural and non- is to regulate financial institutions and structural modifications. Structural pension plans under federal jurisdiction in measures include anchoring the foundation, order to contribute to public confidence in I strengthening the foundation, bracing walls the Canadian financial system. The OSFI's and posts (for homes built on hillsides), Property and Casualty Insurance Division bracing the garage if there are rooms above supervises and regulates all federally I it, and bracing or replacing the chimney. incorporated and registered property-and- Non-structural measures include shutting off casualty insurance companies. It also utilities, bracing the water heater, reviewing conducts examinations of Manitoba- and I safe or dangerous rooms in the house, Newfoundland-based, provincially registered replacing cupboard latches, and securing companies. I heavy furniture, mirrors, and picture frames (Palm, 1990). The insurance industry and/or In 1994-95 there were 231 federally government could use financial incentives to registered and supervised companies in that t encourage or compel such measures. field, of which 98 were incorporated in Canada. The division reviews companies' operation results, analyses financial ratios I 7.3 Financial Mitigation derived from information obtained, and discusses its findings with companies' Individuals and businesses can purchase officials. It also carries out on-site I insurance to protect themselves from the examinations and oversees winding-up of financial consequences of natural disasters. companies in liquidation. Insurance provides protection from low- 1 probability, high-consequence events. Research into the size of the However, should an earthquake hit the lower industry's underfunded liability is currently B.C. mainland, several large insurance under way. OSFI is conducting a survey of t companies would probably be unable to meet all property-and-casualty reinsurance their policy holders' claims and would be companies in Canada. It hopes to determine forced into bankruptcy. how firms calculate their earthquake I exposure, using the risk models described in Lessening the effect of this Chapter 6. Results are expected in late underfunded liability and its consequences, 1996/early 1997. OSFI will release I guidelines on the best method for calculating discussed in Chapter 6, is the responsibility of three groups - federal regulators, earthquake exposure sometime in 1997. I provincial regulators, and the insurance industry itself. 7 3.2 Provincial Regulators Provincial superintendents of insurance I 7.3.1 Federal Regulators supervise insurers operating under provincial Federal and provincial governments regulate charters. However, they also help supervise the property-and-casualty insurance business. terms and conditions of insurance contracts I The federal Office of the Superintendent of and licensing of companies, agents, brokers, I Financial Institutions (OSFI) deals primarily and adjusters (IBC, 1994a). They also seek 171 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL RAAZARDS I Chapter 7: Mitigating Natural Hazards and Their Effects I to ensure public confidence in the insurance PACICC operates through after-the- industry by monitoring its activity. fact assessment. It does not collect any premium in advance of any payout and does I In British Columbia, the Financial not have reserves for meeting future Institutions Commission, or FICO, regulates liabilities. In the event of a payout, current provincially registered insurance companies. PACICC by-laws provide for an assessment I The legislation that FICO administers levied on all licensed insurers in the province provides rules and guidelines intended to of the insolvent insurer, in accordance with ensure that financial institutions operate their share of total gross premiums written in I prudently and that consumers receive the province. This levy can be at most sufficient information for making decisions. 0.75% of the insurer's gross premium (IBC, FICO has the authority to deal with breaches 1994b). t of standards (Government of British Columbia, 1995). However, many in the industry feel that if a catastrophe such as an earthquake in 1, As of 31 March 1994, there were 190 British Columbia occurred, PACICC would property-and-casualty or general insurance be unable to meet incurred losses. companies in British Columbia. More than Consequently, the industry, through the IBC, I 90 % are federally incorporated or has proposed changes to the federal Income registered. All insurance companies Tax Act and other federal regulations to help I authorized to conduct business in the reduce potential losses from a devastating province must belong to the Property and earthquake. First, the industry seeks to add Casualty Insurance Compensation earthquake-related risks to the additional LI Corporation (PACICC - see below). FICO policy reserves permitted under Regulation reviews annual submissions and conducts 1400f to the act. The industry would not on-site examinations of companies have to pay taxes on premium income during I incorporated in British Columbia. years when no earthquake occurred. Second, IBC recommends adding a provision 7.3.3 Insurance Industry to the act that segregates investments t The Property and Casualty Insurance relating to earthquake reserves and to allow Compensation Corporation (PACICC) is an the income on those investments to accrue industry-operated mechanism for protecting untaxed. Third, it seeks to work with the I policy holders against isolated insolvencies B.C. and Quebec governments to provide an caused by "normal" insurance risks (IBC, interim credit facility until the industry was 1994a). PACICC was formed in 1988 as a able to build up sufficient reserves - I non-profit organization. The maximum approximately 24 years (IBC, 1994a). Were possible recovery from PACICC is 70% of an earthquake to strike and the facility be I unearned premiums ($1,000 limit) and called on, funds would be repaid from future $250,000 in respect of all claims that arise premiums over a mutually agreeable period. from each policy issued by the insolvent Through these efforts, the industry hopes I insurer (IBC, 1994a)'. that it can build reserves adequate to prevent widespread insolvency following an earthquake. ' At the April 3rd 1997 annual meeting, PACICC set I up a pre-funded Compensation Fund to accumulate $30 million over a 3-year period beginning in 1998. I 172 I PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS I Chapter 7: Mitigating Natural Hazards and Their Effects The IBC is also recommending that Covaleski, J. (1995). Mitigation catastrophe losses. governments dedicate a portion of Best's Review (December): 42-97. expenditures to preventing earthquake I Environment Canada. (1996). Main Estimates, Part losses, including setting up tax incentives to 111. Department of Finance, Ottawa. encourage individuals to act (IBC, 1994a). I Insurance companies are also asking the B.C. Federal Emergency Planning Agency (FEMA). government to remove the requirement that (1996). Internet Home Page, fire following earthquakes be covered under (http://www,fema.gov/homepage.html). I normal homeowner's policies (Ross, pers. Government of British Columbia. (1995). Canada- comm.). Such action would allow insurers British Columbia Agreement Respecting to price earthquake risk efficiently. Over Floodplain Mapping, Annual Report 1993-1994. I time, it could also reduce underfunded Government of British Columbia, Victoria. liability. Government of Ontario. (1996). Internet Home I Page, (http://www.gov.on.ca). 7.4 Summary Government of Saskatchewan. (1996). Saskatchewan Emergency Planning. I Government of Saskatchewan, Regina. To summarize, physical mitigation is

performed by all levels of government. Grima, L. (personal communication). University of I Involvement of local governments is crucial Toronto, 1996. to reducing the physical impact of natural hazards. Provincial governments can ensure Insurance Bureau of Canada. (1994a). Canadian I that this occurs. Moral suasion has caused Earthquake Exposure and the General Insurance Industry: A Proposal for Action. some individuals to take preventive action in IBC, Toronto. October. their homes and businesses, but financial I incentives could increase these efforts. Insurance Bureau of Canada. (1994b). Canadian The property-and-casualty insurance industry Earthquake Exposure and the General faces a large, underfunded liability because Insurance Industry, Part II: Financial Impact I of its earthquake exposure. Whether or not Analysis. 1BC, Toronto. February. the federal government will respond Newton, J., Myers, M. F. and Monday, J. (1996). A positively to its request for reduced taxes Comparative Assessment of Flood Damage I while it builds a reserve remains to be seen. Reduction Initiatives in Canada and the Unites The insurance industry also awaits the States - Preliminary Research Design. response of the B.C. government to its Prepared for the Environmental Adaptation I Research Group, Environment Canada. request for separate policies for fire following earthquakes. Palm, R. (1990). Natural Hazards: An Integrative I Framework for Research and Planning. John Hopkins University Press, Baltimore. References Petak, W.J. and Atkinson, A.A. (1982). Natural t Hazard Risk Assessment and Public Policy: City of Calgary. (1996). Internet Home Page, Anticipating the Unexpected. Springer-Verlag, I (http://www.gov.calgary.ab.ca). New York. City of Vancouver. (1996). Internet Home Page, Ross, A. (personal communication). SOREMA, I (http://www.city.vancouver.bc.ca). 1996. 173 1 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 8: Preparing for an Emergency 8.0 Preparing for an Emergency by Lindsay Wallace

8.1 Introduction After mitigation, the second phase in the human-response cycle is emergency preparedness — development and practice of emergency plans to respond to natural hazards and monitoring of the geophysical and atmospheric environment to allow for timely hazard warnings. Responsibility for these activities rests with various agencies, as laid out in legislation, regulations, and by-laws, as well as by custom and practice. This chapter examines emergency planning in detail and then briefly summarises federal and provincial duties concerning hazard warnings and environmental monitoring.

8.2 Emergency Planning Emergency Preparedness College (CEPC) at Arnprior, Ontario. During a time of crisis, such as a severe 3. It promotes the awareness of emergency natural disaster, having a response plan can preparedness through the SAFE increase the effectiveness of response efforts. GUARD program Testing emergency plans is also an effective 4. EPC finances the Joint Emergency way to strengthen emergency preparedness Preparedness Program (JEPP), which and to uncover weaknesses in current provides funds for provincial capabilities and plans. This section describes preparation for emergencies (see Section emergency planning by the federal 8.2.2). government, joint federal-provincial bodies, provincial governments, municipalities, The Emergency Preparedness Act business and the insurance industry, and requires each federal minister to plan and individuals. prepare for emergencies related to his or her normal area of responsibility, and helps 8.2.1 Federal Government departments to develop and maintain Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC) appropriate arrangements (EPC, 1994). EPC, which is part of the Department of Consequently, every minister must provide National Defence, coordinates federal services and expertise to other governments emergency planning and preparedness, which and federal departments (EPC, 1995). involves at least the 14 departments listed below. It has four areas of responsibility: Agriculture and Agri-food Canada 1. It monitors potential and actual (AGAFC) emergencies from the Government AGAFC oversees the agricultural sector of Emergency Operations Co-ordination Canada. It develops and maintains civil Centre in Ottawa. The centre operates emergency plans for dealing with the around the clock and monitors national agricultural effects of droughts, floods, and and international media as well as other natural disasters. weather services. 2. It trains emergency planners from all levels of government at the Canadian

174 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 8: Preparing for an Emergency

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and for regulating activities in inland and (CMHC) ocean waters. The Canadian Coast Guard CMHC is responsible for developing plans to falls under its jurisdiction. DFO is required provide emergency shelter for refugees, to develop and maintain civil-emergency evacuees, or homeless victims of disasters. plans for: It does so in collaboration with Health • ice-breaking in navigable waters in Canada and the relevant provincial response to emergency situations; authorities. CMFIC must also plan for • provision of hydrographic and temporary emergency lodging in available oceanographic information, including vacant housing under its control. navigational charts, sailing directions; monitoring of currents, tides, and water Canadian Heritage levels, and related model simulations and Canadian Heritage maintains Canada's predictions. national parks, national historic sites, and other areas of historical significance to the Foreign Affairs and International Trade country. It is responsible for developing The Department of Foreign Affairs and plans for responding to emergencies in or on International Trade (DFAIT) deals with national parks, historic canals, national political and trade relations with other historic sites, and other properties and countries. It is responsible for the Canada— facilities over which it has jurisdiction. United States Agreement on Emergency Planning, signed in 1986, which outlines 10 Environment Canada principles of cooperation intended to make Environment Canada has a mandate to possible bilateral arrangements in civil develop and maintain civil emergency plans emergency planning to deal with emergencies for: along the border. • conducting observations and forecasts of the weather system; Health Canada • recommending alterations to the volume Health Canada has a mandate to develop and of water in national and international maintain civil emergency plans for: waterways, to accommodate unusual • establishing, procuring, and maintaining water flows, and to alleviate ice jams; national stockpiles of medical and health • ensuring equitable apportionment of supplies, including reception-centre kits, available water-supply. to be used in an emergency; • allocating these supplies as required for Environment Canada also promotes use in emergencies; awareness of tornado threats through Project • providing advice on emergency health Tornado — a one-day seminar to aid standards for food, water, drugs and municipalities in developing emergency plans pharmaceuticals, and exposure to in response to tornado threats (Cutler, hazardous environments (radiological, 1994). chemical, or biological); • providing advice and assistance to Fisheries and Oceans provincial authorities responsible for The Department of Fisheries and Oceans delivery of emergency health and social (DFO) is responsible for Canada's fisheries services.

175 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 8: Preparing for an Emergency

Indian and Northern Affairs Canada (INAG Telecommunications Committee I INAC fulfils Canada's fiduciary (NETC); responsibilities to First Nations peoples and • develop at Canadian Emergency t has jurisdiction over Yukon and Northwest Preparedness College courses on Territories. It is required to develop and managing emergency maintain plans for lessening the effects of telecommunications. I emergencies on Indian and First Nations reserves. These plans must include Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) arrangements for temporary community Natural Resources Canada oversees I evacuations and for assistance by provincial development of Canada's geological and territorial emergency services. The resources. Through the Geological Survey department also coordinates federal of Canada, NRCan can offer seismological assistance and response to emergencies information and advice to help other occurring in Yukon and Northwest agencies understand the occurrence and Territories. It does so in support of First intensity of earthquakes, eruptions, I Nations reserves and in response to requests subsidence, tsunamis, and electromagnetic from territorial authorities. storms. I The department has been devolving Public Works and Government Services powers to First Nations communities, Canada (PWGSC) I including those for emergency preparedness. PWGSC maintains infrastructure - for Through its First Nations Emergency example, buildings owned by the federal Preparedness Initiative, it helps communities government. It has a mandate to plan federal I to plan emergency measures and provides response to emergencies involving or expert managers to help deal with affecting government properties or facilities. emergencies on reserve lands (Government It is also responsible for planning for of New Brunswick, 1996). assistance to provinces requesting emergency response support, through such means as Industry Canada acquisition of engineering and construction Industry Canada provides government resources or services, particularly from, support to business. In telecommunications, outside the affected province. it has a mandate to • develop telecommunication contingency Solicitor General Canada plans; The Solicitor General, in conjunction with • develop an emergency broadcast system the RCMP, CSIS, and the Canadian (EBS) in collaboration with provincial Correctional Services, must develop and and territorial governments and the maintain civil emergency plans for use and I telecommunications industry (currently operation of correctional facilities. It is also focused on development of an All responsible for planning for the safety and Channel Alert system in collaboration welfare of prisoners during an emergency. I with Environment Canada); As the department responsible for the • chairs 10 Regional Emergency RCMP, it also plans for assistance by the Telecommunications Committees RCMP to federal departments, provinces, I (RETCs) and a National Emergency and municipalities in the maintenance of public order. I 176 1 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 8: Preparing for an Emergency

Transport Canada program is financed at an annual rate of Transport Canadas responsibilities include almost $6 million. federally regulated ports, harbours, and airports. It is responsible for emergency JEPP was conceived to encourage plans in five areas: federal and provincial/territorial governments • coordinating civil transportation to enhance capability to meet emergencies of resources and services; all types. It also seeks to ensure reasonably • responding to emergencies in or on uniform emergency services across the federally regulated ports and harbours; country. Projects funded must be receiving • air search-and-rescue emergency plans resources from federal, provincial, and and search-and-rescue volunteer training; territorial governments. The federal • federal response to emergencies contribution is negotiated in each case and involving civil aircraft and federally depends on the nature of the project, the regulated civil airports; number of other projects under • provision or augmentation of essential air consideration, and the amount of funding and marine transport services and available (EPC, 1991). operations in the north under emergency conditions. In Newfoundland, the federal government recently provided $269,320 Treasury Board of Canada through JEPP for a variety of projects The Treasury Board Secretariat administers (Government of Newfoundland, 1996). One and finances government services; it is included purchase of a mobile training and responsible for expediting allocation of emergency-response vehicle for the supplementary funds to cover departmental Newfoundland and Labrador Emergency emergency responses. It must also plan for Measures Organization (EMO). The vehicle temporarily amending its own procedures, can also be used as a back-up during regulations, or authorities to avoid delay in emergencies. provision of federal resources, services or assistance. In Saskatchewan, the provincial government co-ordinates delivery of the 8.2.2 Joint Federal-Provincial JEPP program with Emergency Preparedness Initiatives Canada. In 1994, Saskatchewan received federal grants of over $91,700 to assist Joint Emergency Preparedness Program municipalities acquire emergency (JEPP) preparedness equipment. The federal EPC runs the Joint Emergency Preparedness government also gave $131,800 to provide Program (JEPP), whereby Ottawa funds training and consultative services for projects that improve national emergency municipalities (Government of preparedness. The federal government Saskatchewan, 1995). shares costs of projects with provinces, which in turn provide funds to local CANA TEX 2 governments. Eligible projects include EPC also assists provinces in development of emergency planning, emergency disaster exercises. The CANATEX 2 preparedness training, and acquisition of national exercise was a joint federal- emergency equipment (EPC, 1995). The provincial test of the National Earthquake

177 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS I Chapter 8: Preparing for an Emergency I Support Plan, the British Columbia earthquakes and other hazards. Operating Earthquake Response Plan, and the Alberta out of the Ministry of the Attorney General, Support Plan (EPC, 1995). PEP has developed comprehensive I responses, including the Earthquake 8.2.3 Provincial Governments Response Plan, the Flood Plan, and the All provinces have some form of emergency- Tsunami Warning Plan. It also helps preparedness organisation whose size and municipalities to develop emergency plans scope depend on the size and vulnerability of (Government of British Columbia, 1994). the province. Most natural- hazard PEP is mandated to perform five activities: I emergencies occur at the provincial level to prepare and maintain a study of (EPC, 1995) and do not require federal hazard, risk, and vulnerability that involvement. Provincial emergency- identifies potential emergencies and I measures organisations prepare plans for disasters that could affect all or any part response activities and encourage and/or of British Columbia; mandate local communities to do the same. to assess the potential impact on people I Each of the provinces and territories has or property of these emergencies and legislation covering emergency management, disasters; t including local responsibilities as well. to recommend to the Attorney General Quebec, Alberta, and British Columbia strategies for emergency prevention, compel all towns and municipalities to write preparedness, response, and recovery; 1 an emergency plan and test it regularly. to help other ministers develop and Ontario encourages municipalities to have an implement multi-ministry or multi-agency emergency plan (EPC, 1995). This section emergency plans and procedures; 1 describes emergency planning in British 0 to help local authorities develop Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Ontario, emergency-management organisations and Newfoundland. and emergency programs (Government of British Columbia, 1996). The focus of a province's emergency- measures organizations depends on the most PEP also has responsibility for t significant threat to the well-being of secondary preparedness: residents. For example, Emergency o providing training and training exercise Measures Ontario considers a nuclear programs for individuals or organisations I accident the worst possible hazard. concerned with emergency planning and Therefore planning for such an accident is its operations; main concern. Worse case scenario planning providing advice and assistance to induces the development of systems that will business and industry in relation to allow the province to cope with a less severe emergency preparedness, response, and I disaster. Ontario is currently rewriting its recovery; response plan for a nuclear accident 0 assisting in co-ordination of emergency (Government of Ontario, 1996). plans between local authorities and provincial crown corporations, and British Columbia government agencies (Government of British Columbia is highly vulnerable to an British Columbia, 1996). I earthquake threat. The Provincial Emergency Program (PEP) plans for I 178 1 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 8: Preparing for an Emergency

An Inter-Agency Emergency of emergency preparedness includes 12 Preparedness Council chaired by PEP co- resource centres that will act as assembly ordinates inter-ministerial emergency areas for emergency organisations. These planning. It recommends measures for facilities also have telecommunication emergency preparedness to each minister and capabilities that can connect resource helps him or her to co-ordinate emergency personnel to municipal centres (Government plans and procedures with those of all other of Saskatchewan, 1996). ministers and with the government's overall strategies for emergency preparedness. The Community Preparedness Section of SEP seeks to ensure that Alberta communities have prepared emergency plans. In Alberta, there is a Disaster and SEP sees local planning as crucial and offers Emergency Programs Division in the education, training, and advisory services Ministry of Transportation and Utilities. It (Government of Saskatchewan, 1996). It has developed National Emergency also encourages municipalities to establish Arrangements, the Model School Disaster emergency-measures organizations. Plan, the Health Care Facility Evacuation Plan, a Government Emergency Operations Ontario Plan, and even a support plan for a Emergency Measures Ontario (EMO) Catastrophic British Columbia Earthquake. develops emergency plans for the province A number of projects are currently under and encourages municipalities to do the way, including: same. It offers emergency-preparedness • establishing an emergency public- training, technical advice, and public warning system; education. It is located within the Ministry • developing a line-load control program of the Solicitor General and has three to prevent overloading of the telephone branches. Provincial Preparedness manages system during an emergency; the Provincial Emergency Plan, co-ordinates • identifying significant resources and inter-ministry/agency preparedness and facilities in the province; responses, and operates the Provincial • developing a planning guide for disaster Operations Centre, where ministers would recovery for government departments meet during an emergency to co-ordinate (Government of Alberta, 1995). responses. Community Preparedness helps municipalities and First Nations to develop Saskatchewan community emergency plans and exercises. Saskatchewan Emergency Planning (SEP) is Training and Administration conducts part of the Ministry of Municipal training courses on emergency preparedness Government and is mandated to prepare (Government of Ontario, 1996). government and private organisations to limit the effects of a disaster (Government of Co-ordination among responsible Saskatchewan, 1996). SEP prepares officials in Ontario is constant. Emergency contingency plans for natural disasters. Measures Ontario, for example, sends daily Government departments prepare their own situation reports about current emergencies contingency plans and take part in provincial to 10 other provincial ministries and emergency planning. Saskatchewan's system Emergency Preparedness Canada. Other agencies involved include the Emergency

179 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS I Chapter 8: Preparing for an Emergency 1 Health Services Branch of the Ministry of any disaster or emergency. These plans co- Health. It ensures provision of ambulance ordinate the efforts of all rescue, emergency- services across the province by licensing medical, police, environmental-protection, I private, municipal, volunteer, and hospital- fire-suppression, disaster-relief, and other based ambulance services (Government of personnel so as to make the response Ontario, 1996). efficient and appropriate, while minimising I loss of life, injury, and family or social Newfoundland disruption (City of Regina, 1996). The Emergency Measures Division of the 1 Ministry of Municipal and Provincial Affairs Vancouver has four specific responsibilities. First, it The type of emergency planning required by must direct emergency planning for the a community depends on its most threatening I provincial government and its agencies. hazard - in Vancouver, earthquake, and the Second, it must advise and assist municipal devastating fires that could follow. The governments in emergency planning and Munich Re study of the impact of an I third, it does likewise for industry. Fourth,it earthquake in the lower B.C. mainland provides training for provincial government suggested that Vancouver upgrade its staff, municipal officials, volunteers, and the firefighting capabilities (Munich Re, 1992). I public. In response to this and other assessments, the city has improved its emergency planning I 8.2.4 Municipal Responsibilities and strengthened its ability to respond. The Just as all mitigation efforts are local, so new programs are designed to strengthen the emergency planning falls within local city's infrastructure, inform residents, and I jurisdiction. Mayors and other heads of local train employees to deal with emergencies. governments are responsible for emergency plans and their regular testing (EPC, 1995). The city is building a new regional I This section discusses some activities emergency-operations and -communications undertaken by Regina and Vancouver. centre (RECC). The facility, designed to withstand an earthquake of magnitude 8.5 on Regina the Richter scale, will support police- and Regina is an example of a medium-sized fire-dispatch operations, the regional 9-1-1 Canadian city that is vulnerable to a number system, the city's emergency-response centre, t of hazards, including hail storms, tornadoes, a regional office for the Provincial and flooding. Its emergency preparedness Emergency Program, and an emergency coordination centre. Housed in the same I illustrates the types of activities performed at the municipal level. In Saskatchewan, building will be representatives from B.C. community authorities are legally responsible Ambulance Service, B.C. Hydro, B.C. I for emergency preparedness. Consequently, Telephone, B.C. Transit, Canadian National municipal plans are submitted to SEP for (on behalf of five railways), local port review. Sometimes, these plans include authorities, the provincial government, the t protective services for adjacent areas or RCMP, Vancouver Hospital (on behalf of mutual-aid agreements with neighbouring regional hospitals), and offices of all communities (Government of Saskatchewan, communities in the Greater Vancouver I 1996). Regina's emergency planning co- Regional District: Burnaby, Delta, Langley ordinator has plans in place to respond to City and district, New Westminster, Surrey,

180 1 I PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS 1 Chapter 8: Preparing for an Emergency Vancouver, and White Rock. North Shore sanitation supplies for these first, critical municipalities and B.C. Gas may also three days. The program will provide 1 participate. Though B.C. Ambulance training and information enabling residents to dispatch for the southern part of the city and assemble a personal survival kit designed for the Ministry of Transportation and Highways their family, including information on food, I (MOTH) will not be involved, development water, and sanitation systems. This program of the site will provide for their is being run by Vancouver Fire Services accommodation in the future (City of (City of Vancouver, 1996). I Vancouver, 1996). Additionally, Vancouver has The aim of the facility is four-fold. increased its knowledge of emergency I First, it will provide more rapid preparedness. More than 3,500 civic implementation of mutual aid when required. employees have received basic training in Second, it ensures communication emergency preparedness. Specialized 1 capabilities after a major earthquake. Third, courses for staff in key response roles are it will provide for better coordination of available through the Provincial Justice I first-response emergency agencies through Academy. sharing of information and technologies, including radio systems. Fourth, it will Area municipalities and the Provincial I provide large economies of scale by allowing Emergency Program have established a joint all agencies and jurisdictions to use state-of- emergency-liaison committee, made up of the-art technologies at a fraction of the cost senior municipal and provincial I (City of Vancouver, 1996). representatives, which is developing strategies and protocols to ensure that Vancouver is also launching a emergency planning is coordinated between I "neighbour helping neighbour" program to municipalities and provincial ministries (City offer training to communities in skills needed of Vancouver, 1996). to cope immediately following a disaster. I Past events in California, Mexico and City departments, in conjunction with recently in Kobe, Japan, have shown that local hospitals, are undertaking a pre-design 80 % of all life-saving rescues were study on the feasibility of several reservoirs I accomplished by civilian groups acting to store drinking water. Were Vancouver to without the assistance of trained emergency be hit by an earthquake, many if not all water responders (City of Vancouver, 1996). The mains would be destroyed. If approved, t Neighbourhood Emergency Response Team construction of the first reservoir would (NERT) program will provide limited occur during 1997-98. training in damage assessment, firefighting, I first aid, and light urban search and rescue. The city of Vancouver is also NERTs are based on the premise that improving its response capabilities for an t affected areas of the city may have to rely on emergency. Ensuring that emergency their own resources for the first seventy-two organizations can respond to a disaster is an hours after a disaster. The primary goal of important element in emergency planning t the program will be to encourage citizens and the city has addressed three areas of towards self-sufficiency, with stored weakness. First, as noted above, I emergency food, water, medicine, and Vancouver's water-distribution mains are 181 1 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 8: Preparing for an Emergency vulnerable to disruption following an 8.2.5 Business and the Insurance earthquake. The mains are constructed from Industry cast iron, and the principal line bringing Claims. Emergency Response Plans (CERPs) water from the Capilano watershed across CERPs are the emergency plans (one for Burrard Inlet passes over an alluvial fan each province) set up by the property-and- (Munich Re, 1992). Consequently, damage casualty insurance industry to respond to to it would affect provision of water for claims resulting from all major natural consumption and firefighting. In response, disasters where multiple payments are the city has implemented a $40-million expected. The activities of insurers as project to develop saltwater pumping outlined in this series of ten provincial plans stations to provide water for firefighting, in have been coordinated with emergency- the event of such a disruption. The pumping response officials, and their effectiveness has stations are designed to withstand an been tested in several mock disasters, earthquake up to 8.5 on the Richter scale; including the recent federal CANATEX 2 using fuel tanks they would be able to exercise discussed in section 8.2.2 (IB C, operate for up to five days without 1994). The plans allow for a coordinated refuelling. Each station is equipped with a response by the insurance industry to its back-up generator, emergency food and customers following a disaster. Personnel water for operators, and other equipment are shared among the various companies, as allowing them to operate completely self- assigned at the time by a provincial claims contained for many days, if required (City of committee, and the plans allow employees Vancouver, 1996). closest to the disaster to determine the appropriate level of response. The Insurance Second, a three-year project to Bureau of Canada (IBC) registers qualified develop a specialized, multi-disciplinary, claims personnel in each member company heavy urban search-and-rescue team began in who could be evacuated to the emergency if 1995. The team, which includes fire, police, necessary. Officers handle claims on a engineering, and ambulance personnel, "worst-comes-first" basis. would use specialized training and equipment to extricate victims from collapsed buildings Emergency Preparednessfor Industty and (City of Vancouver, 1996). Commerce Council (EPICC) EPICC is a non-profit business group formed Third, the city continues to develop a in 1991 to help B.C. businesses and crown volunteer-based emergency social-services corporations to recover from all types of program to coordinate provision of food, disasters. Members sponsor research, emergency shelter, clothing, and basic seminars, and distribution of information medical services to disaster victims. It hopes concerning pre-emergency planning to the to have these services in place within the wider business community. A recent survey next few years (City of Vancouver, 1996). conducted by EPICC found that 60 government departments, crown corporations, and private enterprises spent close to $2 million on earthquake response and recovery plans (IBC, 1994d).

182 I PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS I Chapter 8: Preparing for an Emergency Planning for Resumption of Business impending disasters, except for tsunamis, Planning for resumption of business has which are a B.C. provincial responsibility; in t become a major business in North America, general, the provinces and municipalities particularly along the west coast. Many disseminate information provided to them by organizations help businesses to prepare federal agencies. t emergency plans to mitigate the effects of natural disasters and to minimize "downtime" 8.3.1 Federal Government following a disaster. For example, the The federal government is the primary t Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce has provider of environmental monitoring and developed a wide range of emergency plans emergency warning in the country. enabling it to resume operations soon after a Environment Canada and Natural Resources t disaster. The planning process involved Canada are responsible for ensuring that identifying key units and establishing a centre their provincial and municipal counterparts for business-resumption operations for them. are warned of upcoming hazards in a timely 1 manner. 8.2. 6 Individuals I When a disaster strikes, it is important for Environment Canada individuals to have their own emergency Environment Canada is the primary plan. While there is no legal requirement to meteorological agency in Canada. It issues I do so, it is a prudent activity. A variety of timely forecasts and warnings to enable organisations provide information and Canadians to protect themselves from severe support to help people prepare for weather (Environment Canada, 1996). It I emergencies. Preparation can include setting issues and delivers scheduled public forecasts up family emergency plans, purchasing home for nearly 200 regions and severe-weather survival kits, ensuring a weeks supply of warnings when required. Meteorologists in i food and water is stored following the 17 Eco-Action Offices across Canada emergency, and obtaining training in first aid. forecast significant weather, including severe I events (Environment Canada, 1996). 8.3 Warnings and Monitoring The department has also, with r Industry Canada, developed the weather- I Emergency planning must include provision radio and weather-copy networks. These of timely warnings for the public about networks (which use radio and wire services, t upcoming hazards. In particular, weather respectively) can get warnings to hazards, floods, tsunamis, and wildfires are approximately 95 % of the Canadian relatively slow and predictable, allowing time population. An all-channel-alert (ACA) I for warnings. Earthquakes, other system, using crawler warning messages at geophysical hazards, and some severe the bottom of television screens, is currently storms, however, often strike with no in the pilot stage and, if successful, should be t warning. installed at cable stations across Canada in late 1997 (Environment Canada, 1996). In Canada, the federal government is t chiefly responsible for monitoring the Natural Resources Canada environment and warning citizens about The Geological Survey of Canada's Canadian I National Seismograph Network operates 183

1 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 8: Preparing for an Emergency nearly 100 seismographs across the country. federal departments of the upcoming These instruments detect more than 1000 tsunami. earthquakes each year, most of which measure less than a magnitude of 3 on the 8.3.2 Provincial Government Richter scale and are not felt by humans. Provincial duties in warning of natural The purpose of this monitoring is to alert hazards are primarily the broadcast of flood essential government agencies of seismic warnings through the ministry of natural activity so as to help protect the lives of resources or the ministry of the environment Canadians. which monitor water levels in rivers. If a province receives a warning from Natural The Canadian Forest Service Resources Canada about a threat of forest provides national monitoring and forecasting fire, it then informs the public. Warnings are reports on conditions related to fire — issued on a variety of media, depending on weather, behaviour, severity - and on fire- the severity of the hazard. Described below management criteria and indicators are some of the agencies that issue natural- throughout the country. Using the Canadian hazard warnings, specifically in British forest-fire behaviour prediction (1,13P) Columbia, Alberta, and Ontario. system, the Forest Service offers quantitative estimates of fire-spread rate, fuel British Columbia consumption, fire intensity, and fire In British Columbia, the Water Resources description. The system also gives estimates Branch of the Ministry of Environment, of the size of the fire area (Natural Lands and Parks monitors water flow. Staff Resources Canada, 1996). from both the Hydrology Branch in Victoria and regional water-management offices Other Departments and Agencies gather and assess information about Responsibility for warnings about tsunamis snowpack and river flow. The Provincial generally lie with the B.C. government. Emergency Program issues tsunami warnings However, federal agencies rebroadcast to federal departments, the RCMP, Canadian warnings in their areas of jurisdiction. Forces, provincial emergency-preparedness Through the Canadian Coast Guard Service, co-ordinators, radio and television stations, the Department of Fisheries and Oceans is and provincial ministries and agencies responsible for rebroadcasting tsunami (Government of British Columbia, 1996). warnings received by the British Columbia

Provincial Emergency Plan to all vessels Alberta • operating in affected areas along the B.C. Alberta Environmental Protection issues coast (Government of British Columbia, warnings about forest fire and flood. The 1995). Similarly, on receiving a tsunami Forecasting Section of its Water Sciences warning, the Vancouver Flight Service Branch disseminates high-streamflow and Station of Transport Canada rebroadcasts flood advisories, while its Forest Protection this message to alert all float aircraft division provides a variety of services, operating in affected areas (Government of including a twenty-four-hour fire-reporting British Columbia, 1995), while CBC radio hotline, fire-hazard maps, and weather rebroadcasts these warnings to the public. updates. Emergency Preparedness Canada alerts other

184 PART 5: RESPONS113ILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 8: Preparing for an Emergency

Ontario References The Ministry of Natural Resources issues flood warnings and fights forest fires. One City of Vancouver. (1996). Internet Home Page, of its main objectives is to protect human (http://www.city.vancouver.bc.ca ). life, the resource base, and property from forest fires, floods, and erosion (Government Cuiter, N. (1994). Environment Canada, Weather and climate services. In: Proceedings of a of Ontario, 1996). Workshop on Improving Responses to Atmospheric Extremes: The Role of Insurance and Compensation. McCulloch, J. and EtIcin, D. 8.4 Summary (eds.). Toronto, October 3-4. Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC). (1995). Activities to prepare for emergencies include Summary of Federal Emergency Preparedness writing and testing emergency plans, in Canada. EPC, Ottawa. strengthening response capabilities, and providing timely warnings when possible. Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC). (1994). Such activities fall within the mandates of all Canada 's Emergency Preparedness and Response System. EPC, Ottawa. levels of government; individuals and businesses can also participate. The federal Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC). (1991). Emergency Preparedness Act requires all Joint Emergency Preparedness Programme departments to prepare and plan for future (JEPP). EPC, Ottawa. emergencies, but provincial authorities can Environment Canada. (1996). Main Estimates, Part manage most natural disasters. III. Department of Finance, Ottawa. Consequently, all provinces have agencies Government of Alberta. (1995). Internet Home for emergency planning and preparedness. Page, (http://www.gov.ab.ca). Municipal governments, particularly for highly vulnerable cities such as Vancouver, Government of British Columbia. (1996). FICO also have programs. While there is no legal Internet Home Page, (http://wvvw.fic.gov.bc.ca). requirement to do so, it is wise for Government of British Columbia. (1995). British individuals and businesses to prepare Columbia Tsunami Warning Plan. Government emergency plans. of British Columbia, Victoria. June.

Natural-hazard warnings are Government of British Columbia. (1994). provided by both federal and provincial Emergency Program Management Regulation. Government of British Columbia, Victoria. agencies, depending on the type of hazard. December. Atmospheric hazards are monitored by Environment Canada, and earthquake Government of New Brunswick. (1996). Internet hazards by Natural Resources Canada. Home Page, (http://www.gov.nb.ca). Flood warnings issue from provincial Government of Newfoundland. (1996). Internet agencies that monitor water levels. In Home Page, British Columbia, the provincial government (http://www.gov.ntca/welcome.htm). provides tsunami warnings to the public and relevant federal agencies. Government of Ontario. (1996). Internet Home Page, (http://www.gov.on.ca).

185 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 8: Preparing for an Emergency I Government of Saskatchewan. (1996). Saskatchewan Emergency Planning. Government of Saskatchewan, Regina. I Government of Saskatchewan. ( 1995). Saskatchewan Municipal Government, Annual Report 1994-1995. Government of I Saskatchewan, Regina. Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC). (1994). I Canadian Earthquake Exposure and the General Insurance Industry: A Proposal for Action. IBC, Toronto. October. I Munich Reinsurance Company (Munich Re). (1992). A Study of the Economic Impact of a Severe Earthquake in Lower Mainland B.C. Munich I Re, Toronto.

Natural Resources Canada. (1996). Main Estimates, Part Ill. Department of Finance, Ottawa. I I t t t I I I t I I 186 I I PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS I Chapter 9: Disaster Response and Relief 9.0 Disaster Response and Relief I by Lindsay Wallace 9.1 Introduction I Response activities - the third phase in the human-response cycle -should begin as soon as a disaster is detected. Those involved can mobilise and position emergency equipment; ensure that individuals are out of danger; provide food, water, shelter, and medical equipment; and bring damaged services and systems back into service. This chapter describes emergency responses maintained by the federal government, provincial governments, municipalities, voluntary agencies, business and the insurance industry, and individuals. There follows a 1 section on co-ordination of all these responses and a summary. I 9.2 Federal Government capacity or authority of a province to deal with it. A national emergency would also be Responding to National Emergencies declared if such a situation seriously I Federal response to a natural disaster threatened the ability of the government of depends on the size of the disaster. In the Canada to preserve the sovereignty, security, most dire emergencies, the federal and territorial integrity of the country and t government would implement the could not be effectively dealt with under any Emergencies Act (the former War Measures other law of Canada (EPC, 1995). Act), which gives it exceptional powers for I limited periods. These powers would be The act specifies four types of required if and only if all other legislation is national emergencies that could justify its found too limited to meet the demands invocation: I placed on the federal government. The act 1. public-welfare emergencies, such as outlines the means whereby a national severe natural disasters or major emergency may be declared and the accidents affecting public welfare, that I regulations and orders that may be are beyond the capacity or authority of a authorised to deal with it. The act also province to manage; I specifies the consultation that must occur 2. public-order emergencies that constitute with provincial authorities in order for the threats to the security of Canada and are act to be invoked (EPC, 1995). The act beyond provincial authority or capacity; I includes safeguards and constraints on 3. international emergencies, such as government actions in declaring and acting in actions that threaten Canada's a national emergency. It also contains sovereignty, security, or territorial I provisions for compensating persons or integrity; organisations that suffer loss as a result of 4. war, including real or imminent armed invocation of the act (EPC, 1995). conflict against Canada or its allies (EPC, t The act defines a national emergency as an 1995). urgent and critical situation of a temporary For the purposes of this study, only the first nature that seriously endangers the lives, type of national emergency - related to t health, or safety of Canadians and is of such public welfare - is of interest. I proportions or nature as to exceed the 1 187 PART 5: RESPONSISILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS I Chapter 9: Disaster Response and Relief I If a national emergency were Environment Canada declared, each federal department and Environment Canada has two agency would have certain responsibilities. responsibilities: I For a public-welfare emergency, EPC would to place under the federal government's co-ordinate and manage many activities. It control all meteorological, limnological, would help to execute the responsibilities of and hydrological resources, facilities, and I the fifteen departments and agencies listed services in Canada, except those below. operated by the Canadian Forces; . to provide increased meteorological, I Agriculture and Agri-food Canada limnological, and hydrological support to (AGAFC) the Canadian Forces if required. Once a national emergency is declared, t AGAFC has five areas of responsibility: Finance • control and regulation of agricultural The Department of Finance pays for t production, processing, and storage; proposed emergency measures. It does so • equitable allocation and distribution of through imposition of emergency taxes, food and agricultural products to the financial moratoria, and other fiscal t population; measures. • domestic distribution of seed, feed, fertiliser, pesticides, and farm equipment Fisheries and Oceans I to agriculture producers; The Department of Fisheries and Oceans • provision of financing, seed, water, and (DFO) is responsible for: equipment to farmers; • controlling all catching, landing, t • pricing and allocation of strategic and transporting, and processing of fish in critical food and agri cultural materials. collaboration with Agriculture and Agri- Food Canada; t Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation o protecting Canadian fishing vessels, in (CMHC) collaboration with the Department of CMHC has three duties: National Defence, and ensuring their safe I • control and regulation of existing real havening in collaboration with the property required for residential Department of Transport; o i purposes, including inventory, allocation, requisitioning, procuring, or requisitioning, appropriation, and appropriating such vessels, gear, procurement of buildings for residential facilities, and resources as might be I use; necessary to sustain the catching, • control and regulation of the rent, lease, landing, or processing of fish; or sale of property used for residential determining the extent of damage to I purposes; fishing fleets, landing facilities, and fish- • co-ordination and implementation of processing plants and establishing the programs to construct, renovate, repair, priority for their repair, replacement, or I or convert urgently required housing and reactivation; related facilities. . co-ordinating and managing requests from other federal departments for use of I I 188 1 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 9: Disaster Response and Relief

systems, craft, facilities, and services Industry Canada under its control. Industry Canada would have two main areas of responsibility. First, it would control and Health Canada co-ordinate industrial production of goods Health Canada is responsible for: and services not controlled by any other • co-ordinating and ensuring provision of department. It would do so in collaboration emergency medical, nursing, hospital, with the departments of Public Works and and public health services; Government Services, National Defence, and • in collaboration with provincial Natural Resources. All activities, from authorities, co-ordinating and ensuring extraction of raw materials to allocation and provision of emergency social services, distribution of final output, would be including emergency feeding, clothing, controlled. Second, Industry Canada would lodging, registration and inquiry, and direct, control, and regulate essential civil personal services; telecommunications resources, facilities, and • controlling and allocating human services. resources in health care in conjunction with the Department of Human Justice Resources Development; The Department of Justice drafts laws and • receiving and treating Canadian Forces administers areas of the justice system that casualties that exceed the capacity of the fall within federal jurisdiction, such as the Canadian Forces medical facilities. criminal code. In a national emergency, it is responsible for rapid development and Human Resources Development Canada processing of orders and regulations (HRD) pursuant to the Emergencies Act, including BRD is the federal agency responsible for declaring the national emergency. It is welfare and employment services in Canada. charged with determining whether measures As such, during a national emergency is taken pursuant to the act comply with the responsible for: Charter of Rights and Freedoms and the • establishment of a register of human principles of administrative and resources that would be used to identify constitutional law. It provides advice to useful persons in emergencies according cabinet and to principal ministers and to their skills; departments directly involved in the • control, regulation, allocation, and emergency response and provides legal movement of the civilian labour force, advice on measures to ensure the continuity excluding members of the RCMP, of constitutional government during a regular members of the Canadian Forces, national emergency. professional health workers, Human Resources personnel and such other National Defence/Canadian Forces persons; The Department of National Defence (DND) supports the preparations for civil emergency • regulation and control of emergency conditions of work, rates of planned by other federal departments and provincial and territorial authorities remuneration, occupational health and assist that request help. In a national emergency, it safety, and labour/management relations. would mobilise troops and deploy them into the affected area. Personnel provide a

189 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 9: Disaster Response and Relief I variety of services, including manpower and Public Works and Government Services civil protection. Canada (PWGSC) PWGSC has five areas of responsibility: I In June 1996, DND set up a Disaster co-ordinating acquisition and provision Assistance Response Team (DART). This of supplies and equipment through team is capable of responding rapidly to a extraordinary regulatory and funding I request for humanitarian assistance or powers; disaster relief in Canada or abroad. DART is . developing and implementing measures composed of approximately one hundred to regulate industrial production, through I Canadian Forces (CF) personnel, including provision of advice and assistance to an engineering platoon, a medical platoon, an Industry Canada; infantry platoon, a logistics platoon, and a . controlling and regulating use of t communications detachment. DART can engineering and construction resources; address the four most critical needs of - . providing support to other federal emergency situations: medical care, potable I departments or provincial governments in water, engineering capabilities, and good acquiring non-residential communications. A CF CC-130 Hercules accommodation; I aircraft would move DART to a site near the . identifying contingency accommodation emergency (Department of National suitable for temporary use by emergency Defence, 1996). government agents. I Despite DART, some questions have Solicitor General been raised - because of the closing of the The Solicitor General is responsible for I CF base in Chilliwack - about the ability of enforcement of extraordinary internal the Canadian Forces to respond to a security regulations, as required, in catastrophic earthquake in British Columbia accordance with available emergency I (Howard, 1996). Troops would have to powers. arrive from Edmonton, twelve hours away, which delay could seriously increase Transport Canada I fatalities. Furthermore, several bridges Transport Canada has two areas of might collapse, making Burrard Inlet and/or responsibility. The first is co-ordinating and False Creek unnavigable and preventing a managing civil transportation equipment and I naval response from the Canadian Forces. facilities, including civil airports, ports, harbours, terminals, and canals. It is also Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) I responsible for controlling, regulating, and NRCan would control and regulate directing operation of all modes or systems production, generation, processing, of transport, other than those systems, craft, I transmission, storage, sale, domestic facilities, and services operated by or under distribution, export, and import of energy. It control of the Canadian Forces, the Royal would do so in collaboration with the Canadian Mounted Police, the Department I National Energy Board. of Fisheries and Oceans, and Aboriginal peoples. Second, Transport is charged with provision, co-ordination, and insurance of I civil aircraft and ships in support of national I 190 1 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 9: Disaster Response and Relief and multinational reinforcement, evacuation, case, there would be federal-provincial logistics, or other movements or operations. consultations between the designated leading organisations and the departments and Treasury Board agencies most directly involved to ensure The Treasury Board Secretariat is smooth operation of response efforts (EPC, responsible for the effective administration of 1995). federal departments; therefore it formulates and implements government-wide financial When Ottawa is asked or compelled orders and regulations based on emergency to intervene in a provincial emergency, the legislative authority. cabinet will assign a federal department to co-ordinate the collective federal effort — Invocation of the Emergencies Act usually the department whose normal does not, however, in any way reduce or responsibilities are linked to the type of impede provincial authority to act on their emergency. For example, Environment own territory. For example, in the case of a Canada would be the "lead" department in catastrophic earthquake in British Columbia, the event of a hazardous waste spill. The the B.C. government retains overall preceding section indicates the type of responsibility for management of the crisis, responsibilities exercised by each including emergency arrangements with all of department. its own ministries, agencies, and municipalities. Within the rest of the country Emergency Preparedness Canada the federal government would provide the monitors potential and actual emergencies B.C. government with a reference point for across the country twenty-four hours a day its emergency support requirements (EPC, from the Government Emergency Operations 1995). Fortunately, the Emergencies Act has Centre in Ottawa. The centre helps the not yet been tested. federal government to intervene effectively and quickly in provincial emergencies, should Federal Involvement in Provincial it be asked or compelled to do so. When Emergencies federal response is required, EPC takes the Most disasters fall within provincial leading role for a short period until a federal jurisdiction. If a province or territory is department is chosen. unable to cope with an emergency, it can formally request federal aid. The federal Emergency Preparedness Act considers an 9.3 Provincial Governments emergency to be in provincial jurisdiction if a single province is affected and that province As noted above, most national disasters has sufficient capabilities to deal with them occur in areas of provincial jurisdiction. (EPC, 1995). Consequently, most provinces have an emergency-measures organisation to co- Ottawa must intervene in a provincial ordinate activities in an emergency for which emergency if the emergency directly involves federal help was not required. Such a body federal property, employees, statutory takes the lead only in situations where local authority, or responsibilities. It would also authorities are unable to cope. This section automatically intervene if aspects of the describes disaster response in British national interest were affected. In such a

191 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 9: Disaster Response and Relief

Columbia as an illustration of provinces' Provincial Emergency Program (PEP) I ability to respond to natural disasters. Within the Ministry of the Attorney General, the Provincial Emergency Program (PEP) 9.3.1 British Columbia maintains a twenty-four-hour-a-day I British Columbia has an extensive capability to direct requests for emergency emergency-response system. The provincial assistance to appropriate municipal, I government is responsible for operating provincial, federal, or private agencies. It emergency responses in unorganised areas, would also serve as the point of contact for where there is no local government. Local requests for emergency assistance from and I governments are responsible for providing to the government of Canada. It would also initial response to most emergencies organise and administer registered volunteers occurring within their boundaries and temporary workers as requested or I (Government of British Columbia, 1992). detailed in emergency response plans. It They may request assistance from other would also co-ordinate emergency responses municipalities, private-sector agencies, the by supporting ministries as requested or I provincial government, or the local offices of detailed in emergency response plans the federal government. They themselves, (Government of British Columbia, 1994). I however, retain responsibility for overall direction and control of response operations. Agriculture, Fisheries and Food In such situations, the province provides The mandate of Agriculture, Fisheries and I support, advice, expertise, or such other Food is to advise farmers, aquaculturists, and assistance as may be requested - similar to fishers on how to protect crops, livestock, Ottawa's supporting role during a provincial and provincially managed fish and marine I crisis. plant stocks. It must also coordinate emergency evacuation and care of poultry Under two circumstances, the and livestock and inspect and regulate food I province takes over emergency responses in quality. Most important, it would identify areas not under its jurisdiction - if a food and potable water for use during the catastrophe event has rendered local emergency and assist the Ministry of Health I government incapable of responding, or if in inspection and regulation of food. the emergency is such that local government cannot provide adequate direction and Attorney General I control and has requested provincial The B.C. Ministry of the Attorney General assistance (Government of British Columbia, has several areas of emergency responsibility. 1992). It would advise local governments and I provincial ministries and government In a provincial disaster, each B.C. corporations on legal matters relating to I ministry and government corporation has a emergency orders, regulations, declarations, number of responsibilities. In this section we and contractual arrangements. It also look at the role of nine ministries and six prepares and implements orders relating to I government corporations, all of which law enforcement and internal security would, in an emergency, act under the through the local police force. It provides supervision of the Provincial Emergency advice to local authorities regarding I Program. maintenance of law and order and would reinforce local police services. It also I 192 1 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 9: Disaster Response and Relief

arranges for security control of emergency • co-ordination of ambulance services and areas, including traffic and crowd control. triage, treatment, transportation, and Search and rescue for missing persons on care of casualties; land and in inland waters is within its • arrangements for continuity of care for purview. The ministry also provides persons evacuated from hospitals or coroners' services, including temporary other health institutions and for medically morgues, identification of the dead, and dependent persons from other care registration of deaths (Government of British facilities; Columbia, 1994). • provision of standard medical units — emergency hospitals, advanced-treatment Environment, Lands and Parks centres, casualty-collection units, and Environment, Lands and Parks provides blood-donor packs; forecasts, bulletins, and assessment. It also • inspection and monitoring of potable and provides technical services and planning staff safe water and food, with the assistance at government operation centres in the case of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food; of floods and conservation officers to act as • provision of debriefing for stress brought special constables to reinforce police forces on by a critical incident and provision of in maintaining law and order and directing counselling services; traffic. Dam-inspection services are another • provision of support and supervision for area of responsibility (Government of British physically challenged or medically Columbia, 1994). disabled persons affected by an emergency. Forests The Ministry of Forests is responsible for Municipal Affairs dealing with wildfire in the province. In an This ministry co-ordinates fire fighting emergency it provides personnel, equipment, through the office of the fire commissioner. supplies, telecommunications equipment, The importance of this activity, were an aviation support, and weather information. earthquake to strike, has been discussed in Chapters 7 and 8. Government Services The Ministry of Government Services has Social Services three areas of responsibility — providing This ministry would provide six services: government aircraft and vehicles; arranging • food, clothing, and shelter in private or for leasing or purchase of emergency congregated facilities; supplies and equipment; and through the — • assisting in locating and reuniting of government communications office — co- families; ordinating the government's emergency • caring for children not accompanied by a information services. guardian or custodian and for the mentally challenged; Health • financial assistance or assistance in kind; The Ministry of Health would be charged • with seven areas of responsibility: clothing, food, shelter, registration, and information as required by emergency • provision of public health measures, workers; including epidemic control and immunisation;

193 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 9: Disaster Response and Relief I • assistance to local authorities in planning Other Government Corporations and operating emergency social services The British Columbia Systems Corporation - feeding, clothing, lodging, registration provides technical advice and assistance on I and inquiry, and personal services acquisition of telecommunications equipment (Government of British Columbia, 1992). systems and computers. I Transportation and Highways B.C. Transit co-ordinates public This ministry is charged with ensuring that transportation, including school= and highways are clear of debris. It co-ordinates privately owned buses. I and arranges for transportation, engineering, and construction resources required by the B.C. Buildings Corporation provides provincial government (Government of priority allocation of government buildings I British Columbia, 1994). for operational accommodation, storage, or other emergency requirements. It would British Columbia Ferry Corporation arrange for emergency rental or leasing of I The B.C. Ferry Corp. arranges for priority private buildings or other infrastructure and loading for transport of emergency assess damage to government buildings. personnel, equipment, and supplies. If I necessary, it would also provide ferries to 9.3.2 Other Provinces serve as reception centres, hospitals, Other provinces have similar arrangements I response centres, or other emergency for responding to emergencies. Their facilities. ministries have mandates that parallel those of their B.C. counterparts. I British Columbia Hydro And Power Authority One notable^ exception, however, B.C. Hydro co-ordinates restoration of occurs in Quebec, where civil-security I electric facilities, taking into account response may take place at the regional as domestic, commercial, industrial, and well as municipal and provincial levels. government requirements. It would interrupt Provincial administrative regions correspond I hydro services when they pose a threat to life to regional health and social service boards, or property. And it would conduct safety as well as regional directorates of measures for its dams, including initiating government departments. The Regional I warnings in the event of dam failures. Civil Security Directorate plans for civil security through a directorate composed of British Columbia Rail Limited representatives from the ministries of I B.C. Rail is compelled to provide priority Agriculture, Environment, Fisheries and movement of emergency personnel, Food, Municipal Affairs, Natural Resources, I equipment, and supplies. At railway crashes Social Services and Health, and Transport, and derailments it helps Transport Canada as well as the provincial police and the with rescue operations, removal of debris, Treasury Board. During a disaster, the I and clean-up of hazardous material. Other directorate may form an organisation to responsibilities include providing rail cars for mobilise representatives of these departments emergency facilities and providing and agencies to support municipalities I specialised equipment. emergency responses (Government of Québec, 1994). I 194 1 I PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS I Chapter 9: Disaster Response and Relief 9.4 Municipalities Medical Services (EMS) offers ambulance teams divided into Advanced Life Support U Municipal emergency-response organisations (ALS) and Basic Life Support (BLS) are the first to be activated. Local responses systems. ALS consists of ambulances staffed include use of fire, ambulance, and police with two paramedics; BLS ambulances have I services and implementation of municipal two emergency medical technicians emergency plans. (EMT-A). The branch also offers trained air medical escorts for patients being transferred H The primary activity is between hospitals (City of Edmonton, 1996). implementation of municipal emergency plans. British Columbia requires local When dispatched to the scene of a I authorities to prepare plans respecting medical emergency, EMS personnel assess preparation for, response to, and recovery injury/illness and provide medical treatment. from emergencies and disasters (Government If ALS care is required to stabilize the of British Columbia, 1994). Ontario does patient's condition, paramedics communicate not require plans but encourages and assists with an emergency-department physician via municipalities in doing so. their two-way radio for orders to administer medication or advanced procedures. The B.C. municipalities may implement patient is then transported to the appropriate I their plans without a declaration of an hospital, where EMS staff provide a verbal emergency, which invokes extraordinary and written report to the receiving physician powers of response, such as restrictions on (City of Edmonton, 1996). I travel or forced evacuations. A mayor or a regional chair can declare a local emergency Edmonton also has a 9-1-1 for all or any part of the jurisdiction's area emergency-response number that links the I and must immediately advise the provincial caller to the Emergency Response attorney general and the public in the area. Communications Centre (ERCC). All A state of local emergency is valid for seven information received by the dispatcher is I days and may be extended with the approval keyed into a computer, which determines of the attorney general or the lieutenant- which fire and/or ambulance unit(s) should governor-in-council for periods of not more respond and from which station. After the I than seven days each. unit(s) have been dispatched, the dispatcher provides instruction to the caller if there is a Edmonton person who requires medical attention before I In order for emergency plans to be effective, personnel arrive at the scene (City of response capabilities must be strong. Edmonton, 1996). I Edmonton, for example, provides a number of emergency response services through Many other Canadian municipalities different branches of the municipal have response capabilities similar to I government. The Fire/Rescue Branch Edmonton's. As discussed in Chapter 8, provides firefighting and rescue services, Vancouver has recently strengthened its including the fire medical responder (FMR), abiliy to respond to an emergency by setting which helps firefighters with patient up saltwater pumping stations, a heavy urban assessment and medical care. Emergency search-and- rescue team, and a regional I emergency-operations centre. 195 1 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS I Chapter 9: Disaster Response and Relief

9.5 Voluntary Agencies 9.6 Business and the I Insurance Industry In the event of an emergency, at least three P national voluntary agencies would assist: the Businesses that have developed an St John's Ambulance, the Canadian Red emergency-response plan would implement it Cross, and the Salvation Army. in time of emergency so as to protect their U The St John's Ambulance is a national, assets and minimise the amount of time that voluntary, not-for-profit agency founded in their business activities are interrupted. In Canada over 110 years ago. Its mission is to the United States, some businesses have I enable Canadians to improve their health, supported local emergency response by safety, and quality of life by providing providing food to evacuees (Tucker, training and community service. Its work in personal communication, 1996). There is no I an emergency would be carried out by "The formal agreement for such provision, which Brigade" - uniformed volunteers who tends to occur on an ad hoc basis. provide first aid at public events and deliver I community health care. The brigade also As noted in Chapter 8, the insurance provides back-up services for emergencies industry has developed a series of Claims I and disaster relief. It currently has 12,100 Emergency Response Plans (CERPs) which uniformed volunteers, including over 2,000 allow for sharing of personnel among youths. insurance companies in the face of a disaster. I Teams of registered insurance personnel in The Canadian Red Cross Society is a the area would assist individual policy volunteer-based, humanitarian organisation holders to file their claims as quickly as I founded in 1896. It provides disaster possible. Sharing personnel minimises the assistance to victims of emergencies in amount of time required for a claim to clear. Canada as part of local emergency-response I plans. It also provides help through partnership agreements with federal, 9.7 Individuals provincial, and municipal governments I (Canadian Red Cross Society, 1996). According to Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC), individuals should be In Newfoundland, emergency I prepared to do what is reasonably possible to communications will be provided if necessary protect life and property in the event of an to the provincial government by the Society emergency (EPC, 1995). In order to I of Newfoundland Radio Amateurs minimise the response required, individuals (SONRA). SONRA is prepared to provide should take the time to protect themselves by ham radio equipment and an operator implementing mitigation measures and anywhere in the province to assist the establishing emergency plans for the home. province's Emergency Measures During a disaster, many private citizens Organization. volunteer in the clean-up efforts. I I I 196 t PART 5: RESPONSIBDLITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 9: Disaster Response and Relief

9.8 Co-ordination disasters. All governments have assigned responsibilities internally. Which level of One of the most important aspects of government leads emergency response disaster relief is efficient co-ordination within depends on the severity of the disaster. Non- and among levels of government and private governmental organizations also support relief agencies. For example, when an emergency responses. Succinct emergency emergency under provincial jurisdiction is planning by governments, businesses, and mainly of local or regional concern, the individuals can help ensure effective disaster regional director of EPC acts as primary response. contact between federal and provincial governments to co-ordinate federal assistance. This usually occurs during severe References weather, floods, and forest fires. Canadian Red Cross Society. (1996). Within provinces co-ordination is essential. For example, Saskatchewan City of Edmonton. (1996). Internet Home Page, Emergency Planning (SEP) receives support (http://www.gov.edmonton.ab.cakity/). from ambulance operators, civil air search Department of National Defence. (1996). Main and rescue, fire departments, municipal Estimates, part III. Department of Finance, police, the RCMP, and the Red Cross. SEP Ottawa. seeks to co-ordinate response efforts with these organisations (Government of Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC). (1995). A Summary of Federal Emergency Preparedness 1996). Saskatchewan, in Canada. EPC, Ottawa.

In the case of wildfires, where Government of Alberta. (1995). Internet Home resources often need to be shared among Page, (http://www.gov.ab.ca ). provinces, the Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre coordinates the Mutual Aid Government of British Columbia. (1994). Emergency Program Management Regulation. Resource Sharing Agreement. This Government of British Columbia, Victoria. document provides for effective and efficient December. use of firefighting expertise and resources where they are needed and is often used by Government of British Columbia. (1992). provinces to share firefighting personnel Provincial Governments Emergency Management: A Strate,' for Response. (Government of Alberta, 1996). For Government of British Columbia, Victoria. example, in 1996 Alberta sent over 300 August. firefighters and support staff to Ontario and Quebec. Government of Quebec. (1994). Civil Security in Ouebec, Basic Manual. Government of Quebec, Sainte-Foy.

9.9 Summary Government of Saskatchewan. (1996). Saskatchewan Emergency Planning. Effective federal, provincial, and municipal Government of Saskatchewan, Regina. capabilities to respond to emergencies are vital to minimizing casualties from natural

197 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS t Chapter 9: Disaster Response and Relief I Howard, R(1996). B.C. disaster-relief plans need work. Globe and Mail, Metro edition, August 6. p. A4. I Tucker. C. (personal communication). Emergency Preparedness Canada, 1996. I I I i I I I I I I I I I I 198 I PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 10: Recovery

10.0 Recovery by Lindsay Wallace

10.1 Introduction The fourth and final stage of response to a disaster is recover), from the physical and financial effects. Rebuilding can take months, if not years. It also requires that individuals receive the means to begin recovering, in the form of financial assistance and/or payouts from insurance. Costs of natural disasters may be borne by individuals, insurance companies, reinsurers, private businesses, and government. A study in Alberta of the distribution of compensation payments found that 11% of all recovery costs for three events originated in the provincial government's disaster-assistance program. Insurance companies paid over 66%, with the remainder coming from other sources such as business funds, personal funds, and bank loans (Wolsley, 1994). In this chapter we examine the recovery responsibilities — particularly vis-à-vis financial assistance — of the federal government, joint federal-provincial plans, the provincial governments, municipalities, and business and the insurance industiy, and the final section examines crop insurance.

10.2 Federal Government Under the DFAA, the federal government on request provides financial Federal responsibilities for disaster recovery assistance in accordance with a formula generally lie in two areas. First, Ottawa based on provincial/territorial population. provides financial assistance to provinces Generally, payments are made to restore affected by natural disasters. The provinces public works to their pre-disaster condition in turn pass the money along to communities and to facilitate restoration of basic, through disaster financial-assistance plans of essential, personal property of private their own. Second, the federal government citizens, farmsteads, and small businesses. funds insurance schemes designed to protect Ottawa makes a contribution only when farmers from financial hardships caused by provincial expenditures exceed $1 per capita crop losses induced by natural hazards (see of population. Ottawa covers half of the section 10.6). This section discusses the next $2 per capita and three-quarters of the roles of federal agencies in implementing next $2 per capita beyond that. Finally, if financial assistance. provincial expenditures exceed this amount, the federal government pays 90% of the Emergency Preparedness Canada remainder. (EPC), aside fi-om its duties discussed in Chapters 7-9, is also responsible for the This formula means that in the event Disaster Financial Assistance Arrangement of a large natural disaster, particularly in a (DFAA), whereby provinces can claim province with a small population, Ottawa financial assistance from Ottawa for meeting pays the larger part of the costs incurred. the costs of major disasters. Since 1970, The EPC's regional director represents the DFAA's average annual expenditure has been federal government and makes arrangements about $9 million (Peters, 1994). for damage assessment, detailed interpretation of the guidelines, general surveillance of private damage claims, and

199 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS I Chapter 10: Recovery development of joint federal-provincial teams furnishings (including appliances), clothing, I to review claims for agricultural and public- and small businesses (including farms) when sector damage. Since its inception in 1970, an individual's livelihood has been destroyed. I the DFAA has paid more than $210 million Individuals receive the provincial minimum in post-disaster assistance to the provinces wage for their clean-up efforts. Assistance (EPC, 1995). for reconstruction of buildings will be given i only once, unless action to avoid recurrence Floods are a recurring natural hazard was not feasible (EPC, 1988). and a frequent cause of property damage in I Canada. The Federal Flood Damage Costs not paid for include anything Reduction program, discussed in Chapter 7, that could be covered by insurance, vehicles, is a federal-provincial program to map loss of income, normal operating expenses, I floodplains and delineate areas of high flood and restoration of property owned by large risk with a view to minimising property businesses. For the provinces, costs of damage. Once such areas are designated, no fighting forest fires are not covered. I assistance is provided under the DFAA, unless a flood is much larger than the flood There are many situations when mitigated for (EPC, 1988). government assistance to a large business or I industry whose continued operation is vital After a disaster, the province to the economy of a community may be requests assistance from the federal minister requested. Such assistance will be made only I of defence. Federal-provincial assessment on an ad hoc basis (EPC, 1988). and appraisal teams review and assess t public-sector damage, and insurance In the event of a catastrophic appraisers, private-sector damage. earthquake, it has been estimated that federal Together, these requests form the basis of assistance to cover losses to roads, bridges, i the overall damage estimates (EPC, 1988). hospitals, schools, and other infrastructure could amount to 90% of all uninsurable Ottawa reimburses only eligible costs losses beyond the first $15 billion, or I that meet the criteria in the federal approximately $12 billion in the worst-case guidelines. Eligible costs in the immediate scenario (IBC, 1994d). This figure does not post-disaster period include rescue, include compensation to policy holders I transportation, emergency health care, food whose insurance companies have become and shelter, removal of hazardous material, insolvent. containment of the disaster area, security, I and communication. Post-disaster public- Occasionally, other departments are sector costs may include clearing of debris required to provide expertise to EPC to help and wreckage, establishment of protective administer the DFAA. Agriculture and I health and sanitation facilities, and repair to Agri-food Canada advise and assist pre-disaster condition of roads, dikes, provinces and municipalities in determining government and public buildings, and utilities damage estimates of farms and agricultural I (EPC, 1988). lands. They also advise EPC re estimation of agricultural damage and verification of I For individuals, eligible costs include claims for disaster financial assistance. The restoration and replacement of property, Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation I 200 1 I PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS 1 Chapter 10: Recovery provides expert advice and assistance to deliver crop insurance, usually through provincial and municipal authorities agriculture ministries or crop-insurance I concerning assessment of residential damage. boards or commissions (see section 10.7). It also helps EPC verify claims made under As noted above, each province has some the DFAA. mechanism for transferring federal DFAA I funds to municipal agencies or individuals. This section briefly discusses the programs in 10.3 Federal-Provincial Programs place in Saskatchewan and Alberta as an I illustration of the types of provincial Two other insurance programs are run programs currently in place. jointly by Ottawa and the provincial 1 governments, with financial participation by Alberta individual producers. The Gross Revenue Alberta's disaster arrangements provide Insurance Plan (GRIP) builds on crop financial assistance following disasters that 1 insurance by offering producers revenue damage a large portion of the province. The protection to complement the yield guidelines are similar to the federal I protection offered by the Crop Insurance guidelines. Over the past ten years, the Program. Through GRIP, producers receive province has experienced eleven natural a revenue guarantee for each crop, based on disasters, including the 1987 tornado in the I a percentage of their past production and a Edmonton-Strathcona County area for 15-year, indexed, moving average price. which it paid $40.2 million to claimants GRIP premiums are shared 33.33% by (Wolsley, 1994). Program costs during that I producers, 41.67% by Ottawa, and 25% by time have been approximately $228 million. the provincial government. The prairie provinces have left GRIP (Agriculture Saskatchewan 1 Canada, 1996). In Saskatchewan, the Emergency Planning Branch of Saskatchewan's Ministry of The Net Income Stabilization Municipal Government, also known as I Account (NISA), another tripartite program, Saskatchewan Emergency Planning (SEP), helps producers with financial management administers the Provincial Disaster and planning by encouraging them to set Assistance Program. The program provides I aside money in good years for withdrawal in financial assistance to eligible claimants bad times (Agriculture Canada, 1996). located in an area that has been declared eligible for assistance as a result of t substantial loss or damage to uninsurable 10.4 Provincial Governments property caused by a natural disaster. A substantial loss is interpreted to mean I approximately $1 million in the case of local Provincial responsibilities for disaster government property; with private property, recovery parallel those of the federal total damage in the area must exceed government. First, provinces transfer I $25,000, or at least one individual must incur funding received through the DFAA to the $5,000 damage to uninsured property municipal governments, through a municipal (Government of Saskatchewan, 1995). I affairs ministry or the province's emergency- I measures organization. Second, provinces 201 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 10: Recovery

The program covers only uninsured 10.6 Business and the damage, so it does not compete with Insurance Industry insurance companies. It provides assistance only for restoring essential services and Business owners make claims to either their property to their pre-disaster condition. The insurance company or the province, municipal council must pass a resolution depending on the nature of the hazard. requesting that its area be designated eligible Similarly, individuals are responsible for for assistance. When SEP receives this making claims either to their insurance resolution, it reviews the circumstances. If it company or to the province, depending on so designates the area, it sends application their circumstances. forms to municipal offices for distribution to eligible claimants. Once the municipality has The insurance industry receives collected the claims application forms, claims made by policy holders and pays out government-appointed adjusters inspect and compensation depending on individual assess the damage (Government of policies. Insurance companies also make Saskatchewan, 1995). claims to reinsurance companies for losses resulting from natural catastrophes and other There is no maximum amount of reinsured losses. Reinsurance companies coverage for damage to a local government's evaluate and pay the claims of insurance property, but there is a maximum deductible companies depending on reinsurance of $1 million. Other eligible claimants are contracts (policies). The problem of defining subject to the following deductibles: $500 natural-hazard events has caused arbitrations plus 30% of the eligible costs in excess of between reinsurers and insurers (see Chapter $500 or $1,000 plus 30% of the eligible 4). costs in excess of $1,000 in the case of livestock, feed, farm-soil erosion, or a small- business claim (Government of 10.7 Crop Insurance Saskatchewan, 1995). 10.7.1 The Federal Government The federal government offers assistance as 10.5 Municipalities well through the crop-insurance and income- stabilisation schemes run by Agriculture and Municipalities directly cover the costs of few Agrifood Canada (AGAFC). The goal of as they usually disaster-recovery activities this department is a healthy farm sector that aid, and they are not, of receive financial is financially secure and environmentally involved in crop insurance. They are course, sustainable and produces safe, high-quality responsible for submitting claims to food (Agriculture Canada, 1996c). AGAFC, governments' disaster financial provincial in collaboration with provincial agriculture the funds to rebuild authorities and using ministries, finances crop-insurance programs They are also damaged infrastructure. that seek to provide reasonable coverage for ensuring that their residents responsible for all agricultural commodities in all provinces. access to government claim forms. have However, crop insurance is part of an overall income-stabilisation package. AGAFC also

202 I PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS I Chapter 10: Recovery acts as federal reinsurer for provincial crop early July 1996, federal, provincial, and insurance. territorial ministers of agriculture endorsed I the committee's recommendations The Crop Insurance Program (Saskatchewan Agriculture, 1996). provides production-risk protection to I producers by minimising the economic Federal crop reinsurance takes on effects of crop losses caused by natural part of the provinces' contingent liability hazards, such as drought, flood, hail, frost, when indemnities exceed accumulated I excessive moisture, and insects. Ottawa is a reserves because of severe crop losses. Five partner in ten provincial crop-insurance provinces have reinsurance agreements with programs. It pays into the programs when the federal government: Alberta, 1 provincial insurance schemes meet the terms Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Nova Scotia, and and conditions of bilateral Crop Insurance New Brunswick (Agriculture Canada, Agreements: premium rates must be 1996a). Each province contributes a I actuarially sound, the provincial schemes maximum of 15% of total premiums in that must be self-sustaining, and estimates of province for the year to the federal fund, I probable crop yields must reflect actual depending on the balance in the reinsurance yields produced. fund. Before a reinsurance payment is triggered from the fund, crop-insurance I Crop insurance costs the federal and indemnities must first be paid from a provincial governments and producers an province's accumulated insurance-premium estimated $437 million per annum reserves. If these reserves are insufficient to I (Agriculture Canada, 1996b). Producers pay cover all indemnities, then reinsurance funds 50% of premium costs, with federal and make up a portion of the shortfall. The provincial governments splitting the balance. province is responsible for any shortfall up to I Direct administration costs were $68 million 2.5% of the program's total liability, with the in 1994-95, split between the two levels of remaining shortfall funded 75% by the government. The 1995 federal budget stated federal reinsurance fund and 25% by the I that approximately 20% of the federal province. contribution to administrative fees would be recovered from individual producers on a The committee also reviewed the I user-pay basis. Costs of the program are reinsurance program. One discussion that expected to rise in 1996-97 because of the resulted concerned the program's structure. higher insured values resulting from There may be an opportunity for private- I unseasonably high commodity prices sector involvement. Producers generally (Agriculture Canada, 1996a). feel, however, that private schemes might lead to unacceptable fluctuations in I Federal crop insurance was reviewed premiums because of reinsurers' need to in 1995-96 by a committee composed of cover risk margins, administrative costs, and I federal and provincial representatives as well profit (Agriculture Canada, 1996c). as farmers. The body suggested that federal Moreover, some private reinsurers have leverage in crop insurance is likely to suggested that the industry might be I become more limited and they made a variety unwilling to act as a reinsurer because of the of recommendations as to how this could be federal-provincial division of responsibilities. I handled (Agriculture Canada, 1996b). In Private reinsurers that have contracts with 203 1 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 10: Recovety the federal government would be unable to operators with protection against crop losses influence administration of the program, on insurable crops caused by uncontrollable which is handled by the provinces (Ellis, natural causes. Over the past five years, personal communication, 1996). approximately 47,000 Saskatchewan producers have enrolled each year. 10.7.2 The Provincial Governments Coverage is available in low-, high-, and Each province has companion programs to market-price options. Coverage options for federal crop insurance. The Crop Insurance each insurable crop are available at 50, 60, Review of 1996 found that there was no 70, 75, or 80% of the producer's long-term national consensus on crop insurance, with individual yield. Crop insurance offers a provinces preferring different approaches to guarantee of production and quality. If the managing production risk (Agriculture grade of harvested production falls below the Canada, 1996c). designated grade for a crop, compensation is adjusted accordingly. The volume of crop insurance written and paid out differs widely from province to In 1995 Saskatchewan's Farm province because of the varying size of the Support Review Committee recommended agricultural sector, differing participation two-tiered crop insurance. The federal, rates, and the exclusion of beef, dairy, and provincial, and territorial ministers of poultry producers. The structure of crop- agriculture endorsed this type of program in insurance organisations also varies. British 1996. The national committee also thought Columbia, Newfoundland, and Prince a two-tiered model acceptable. Such a Edward Island administer their programs scheme offers basic coverage to producers at through departments that mirror Agriculture low cost and additional coverage at higher and Agri-foods Canada. Alberta, rates. Saskatchewan will change to a two- Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Quebec use tiered model for the 1997 crop year crown corporations. In Ontario, Nova (Government of Saskatchewan, 1996; Scotia, and New Brunswick, boards or Agriculture Canada, 1996b). commissions tied to provincial departments of agriculture operate the programs Quebec (Agriculture Canada, 1996b). The Quebec Agricultural Insurance Board (Régie d'Assurance Agricole) administers The 1996 review found little interest crop insurance in Quebec. Its mission is to in a single national program. Given the ensure the financial stability of farm differences in crops and clients across the businesses by compensating for significant country, a national scheme would not losses in income resulting from low prices or necessarily be the best means of delivery uncontrollable natural phenomena (Agriculture Canada, 1996b). Several (Government of Quebec, 1996). specific programs are discussed below — those in Saskatchewan, Quebec, Nova The objective of the programs Scotia, and Newfoundland. sanctioned by the Crop Insurance Act is to compensate for losses in yield of eligible Saskatchewan crops resulting from damage caused by In Saskatchewan, the Saskatchewan Crop uncontrollable natural elements. Individual Insurance Corporation (SCIC) provides farm risks covered include wild animals and birds,

204 I PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS I Chapter 10: Recovery floods, excessive wind, rain, humidity and of agriculture and marketing. The heat, frost, hail, uncontrollable insects and commission makes available programs that I diseases, snow, hurricanes, and drought. assist farmers in years of reduced yields, Compensation is paid to the farmer when lower revenue, and losses from insurable damage during the season affects more than perils. The Crop Insurance Program was I 20% of total insurable yield. To calculate first made available in 1969. Its main payment, the unit price listed on the objective is to pay out-of-pocket expenses certificate is multiplied by the difference for crop losses. Expenses such as seed, I between 80% of total insurable yield and fertiliser, and spray are paid so that the actual yield. Salvage value and non-incurred farmer can continue farming. The expenses, if any, are subtracted from commission administers eleven Crop I payments. The board determines a probable Insurance plans, a Dairy Livestock Insurance yield for farms based on 15% moisture and program, and the Gross Revenue Insurance expressed in kilograms per hectare of Plan (GRIP), covering grains and oilseeds. I Canada-pedigreed grade 1 and 2 seeds. The Nova Scotia Crop and Livestock Total insurable yield is calculated by Insurance Act and the Crop Insurance I multiplying yield by insurable area Agreement between Nova Scotia and (Government of Quebec, 1996). Canada govern these activities. The two governments each contribute half of I Participation is voluntary. Producers administrative costs for Crop Insurance and may reapply annually, provided they meet GRIP, and the province covers eligibility criteria. The insured value administrative expenses for other programs I stipulated in the policy is a function of administered by the commission expected yield per insurable unit and a unit (Government of Nova Scotia, 1996). price usually based on production cost. I Assessment rates are based on the actuarial Crop Insurance plans deal with principles used in the insurance sector. The Blueberries, Corn, Forage Peas and Beans, financial position of each insurance fund and Potatoes, Soybeans, Spring Grain, I the historical loss index of the programs play Strawberries, Tobacco, Tree Fruit, and a key role in setting assessment rates. Winter Grain. Each insured crop is guaranteed a specific yield based on the past I To be eligible, farmers must cultivate yield records of each insured. When no a minimum of four hectares of a given crop historical records are available, a benchmark, and use Canada-pedigreed grade seeds either a provincial or an industry average, is I (foundation or registered). Pedigreed seed is used. When harvest yield is less than not common in Canada, but using it, as guaranteed yield, because of insurable perils, I opposed to the previous year's seed, a claim payment is made. Crop insurance is increases the genetic strength of the plants designed to protect against crop losses and perhaps minimizes drought damage resulting from unavoidable natural hazards I (Ellis, personal communication). beyond the control of the producer. It is not intended to cover losses resulting from Nova Scotia negligence, misconduct, or poor farming I The Nova Scotia Crop and Livestock practices. The insurable perils are drought, Insurance Commission administers crop frost, wind, excess moisture, insects, disease, I insurance under the direction of the minister wildlife, winter injury, adverse weather, and 205 1 PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS Chapter 10: Recovety pollination failure (Government of Nova communication). There have been various Scotia, 1996). discussions about creating producer-owned and -operated mutual insurance plans. Crop insurance plans offer the option Under such schemes, the provincial and of either 70% or 80% coverage. In the event federal governments would decide each year of crop damage, the grower submits a notice how much money they were prepared to of crop damage and a Crop Insurance allocate to crop insurance. Producers would representative inspects the damage. Claims pay the full cost of administration as part of are adjusted according to the time of the year their premiums, and costs would be when the loss occurs. The liability of the controlled because farmers themselves would commission is the sum of all claim stages have a greater stake in a program's integrity. payable or the total dollar coverage of the It was suggested that this area merits further crop, whichever is less (Government of Nova study (Agriculture Canada, 1996b). Scotia, 1996)

Newfoundland 10.8 Summary In Newfoundland, the crop-insurance program provides production-risk insurance The federal and provincial governments for turnips, cabbages, potatoes, and carrots. provide financial assistance to municipalities, The feasibility of extending insurance to individuals, and occasionally businesses that other crops is reviewed periodically. The have suffered financial losses as a result of program guarantees a producer a minimum natural disasters. They make payouts yield, based on individual production history through the Disaster Financial Assistance and specified coverage levels. Compensation Arrangements, and insurance companies pay for yield losses is currently based on the claims to policy holders for eligible losses direct (cash) costs of production for the and in turn make claims on reinsurance particular crop. The minimum acreage that companies. Federal and provincial can be insured is one acre, and all of the governments and individual producers acreage of a particular crop must be insured participate in a variety of programs of crop if coverage is requested. The program is insurance. operated by the Newfoundland Crop Insurance Agency, under the Crop Insurance Act. The Canada/Newfoundland Crop References Insurance Agreement establishes the cost- sharing rates — 25% for Ottawa, 35% for Agriculture Canada. (1996a). Crop Insurance: Newfoundland, and 40% for the individual Advice on Organisation and Administration. A producer. Administration costs are shared report prepared for Agriculture and Agri-Food equally by the federal and provincial Canada as part of the 1995-96 crop insurance governments (Government of review. Sussex Circle, March. Newfoundland, 1996). Agriculture Canada. (1996b). Main Estimates, part III. Department of Finance, Ottawa. Canadian producers have experimented with buying futures and self- Agriculture Canada. (1996c). Report of the Review insurance as means of managing risk, but of National Production Risk Management these activities are limited (Ellis, personal

206 I PART 5: RESPONSIBILITY FOR NATURAL HAZARDS I Chapter 10: Recovery Policy for Crops. Crop Insurance Review Steering Conunittee, June.

I Ellis, J. M. (personal communication). Agriculture Canada, 1996. I Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC). (1995). A Summary of Federal Emergency Preparedness I in Canada. EPC, Ottawa. Emergency Preparedness Canada (EPC). (1989). Disaster Financial Assistance: Manual to assist in the interpretation offederal guidelines. EPC, I Ottawa.

Government of Newfoundland. (1996). Internet I Home Page, (http://www.gov.nf.ca/welcome.htm). I Government of Nova Scotia. (1996). Internet Home Page, (http://www.gov.ns.ca).

Government of Quebec. (1996). Internet Home I Page, (http://www.gov.pq.ca).

Government of Saskatchewan. (1996). Internet I Home Page, (http://www.gov.sk.ca/default.html).

Government of Saskatchewan. (1995). I Saskatchewan Municipal Government, Annual Report 1994-1995. Government of I Saskatchewan, Regina. Insurance Bureau of Canada (IBC). (1994). Insurance Bureau of Canada Position Paper: A I Statement of Principles Regarding Insurance and Natural Hazards. IBC, Toronto, February.

Peters, D. (1994). Emergency Preparedness Canada. I In: Proceedings of a Workshop on Improving Responses to Atmospheric Extremes: The Role oflnsurance and Compensation. McCulloch, J. and Etkin, D. (eds.). Toronto, October 3-4. pp. 5-2 to 5-5.

Wolsley, R. (1994). In: Proceedings of a Workshop I on Improving Responses to Atmospheric Extremes: The Role ofInsurance and Compensation. McCulloch, J. and Etkin, D. I (eds.). Toronto, October 3-4. pp. 5-19 to 5-21. I I 207 0 I I PART 6: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS I 11.0 Summary and Conclusions 11.1 Vulnerability to Natural Hazards in Canada ...... 209 I 11.2 Scientific Support for Managing Natural Hazard Exposure ...... 210 11.3 Validation of Computer Models of "Probable Maximum Loss" ...... 210 I 11.4 The Changing Patchwork of Responsibility for Natural Hazards in Canada...... 211 I I 0 I I I I I I 1 I I I PART 6: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 1 Chapter 11: Summary and Conclusions 1 11.0 Summary and Conclusions 11.1 Vulnerability to Natural Conclusions on how climate change I Hazards in Canada will affect the frequencies and intensities of extreme events is mixed. In a warmer Geographical, political, economic, climate, it seems likely that the number of I demographic, insurance, construction, and convective events (e.g. thunderstorms with psychological factors all affect both the extreme rainfall, tornadoes and hail), heat absolute cost of natural hazards to Canadians waves, floods and drought will increase; 1 and the division of cost between and within while the frequencies of cold waves will public and private entities. However, we can become rarer. The relationship between the analyse the various hazards to which frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones Canadians are exposed, in terms of their and global warming is inconclusive. Table impacts, their physical causes and their 3.1 is a summary of the current views on frequency of occurrence. For example, the future of extreme events as a result of i although these hazards occur throughout the climate warming. year, summer probably represents the most I vulnerable period when we regularly suffer The social and economic costs to the four most devastating hazards: floods, Canadians from natural hazards are drought, hail and tornadoes. To these must substantial, not only as a result of damages I be added the significant potential damage when events occur, but also due to from earthquakes, severe winter storms and adaptation and recovery. In particular, windstorms. Together these seven hazards drought, flood and hail have had significant i require more detailed risk analyses in order economic impacts, which we must to determine the vulnerability of Canadian understand in order to devise better policy I society. tools to deal with them. As climate changes due to human However, there have been almost no impact, it may be changes in the frequency of studies that provide such a summary, and 1 hazards or extreme events that has the this analysis is not at a stage where it can be greatest impact rather than the increase in attempted. Clearly, the importance of floods the mean surface level temperature referred has been shown and highlighted by the I to as "global warming". It is the increase in Saguenay disaster. The costs of droughts the variance, rather than the increase in the can also be very large, if not so dramatic i mean, that poses the most immediate danger. (drought is a slow onset disaster, as For example we must address the question compared to flood which is a "fast onset" "How might extreme events change due to disaster). For example, Wheaton and I enhanced greenhouse warming?", by Arthur (1989) estimated the cost of the 1988 reviewing and summarising current literature drought at $1.8 billion (unadjusted), or 0.4% on that issue. In some cases, prediction can of real GDP. Other droughts of significance t reasonably be made regarding the are: 1978/79 ($2.5 billion), 1980 ($2.5 consequences of climate change, while in billion), 1984 ($1 billion), 1985 ($50 million) I other cases opinion is divided. and 1990 ($96 million). _ 209 1 PART 6: SUMIVIARY AND CONCLUSIONS Chapter 11: Summary and Conclusions

It is likely that costs associated with 11.3 Validation of Computer hazards will increase in the future, as a result Models of "Probable of climate change. However, although Maximum natural hazards and disasters are expensive, Loss" they are not inevitable; with appropriate How useful are seismic risk models, planning to reduce vulnerability, their social for example, how can they be critically and economic impact on Canadians can be reduced. examined? In this study we have examined seismic risk modelling in greater depth, for the purposes of model examination and assessment of model output. The steps 11.2 Scientific Support for outlined in a generic seismic risk model Managing Natural Hazard include the insurance inputs, the seismic Exposure hazard module, the vulnerability module, and the financial outputs. Incorporating concepts from meteorology has the potential to make occurrence The different seismic risk models definition more consistent, and therefore less available to the insurance industry have a subject to dispute. This would provide similar structure. Each requires insurance benefits to the insurance and reinsurance input data including building inventory, communities both in terms of dispute insurance structure, and seismic event resolution and in having a clearer concept of parameters. Each has a seismic hazard what is covered by reinsurance treaties. If module which uses the seismic event data contracts included both a physically based, and building location in attenuation functions spatial description of the hazards covered to estimate seismic shaking at a site. Each and some stipulation regarding linkages model then uses a vulnerability module to between perils, it could make the definition estimate the extent of damage at the site of a loss occurrence more dependable. based on the site seismic shaking. Finally, each model has a financial module that The space-time proposal classifies calculates the potential insured losses given occurrences by scale (synoptic or mesoscale) the extent of property and content damage, and physical links, and allows for fairly business interruption, and insurance straightforward determination of the number structure. of occurrences. By malcing the definition of an occurrence in this way, less confusion will However, the seismic risk models arise in classifying losses. Further research is differ in their purposes, applications, recommended to: secondary effects considered, attenuation 1. apply the space-time method to a series and vulnerability functions, assumptions, of case studies, covering all types of sensitivities, and other more minor functions. severe weather events; and The products also differ in services and 2. develop a set of sample contracts, in support provided, and operation costs. order to test the implications of this method on past and future incidences. Other questions should also be considered, such as how often are databases updated?, what kind of support is offered by

210 PART 6: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Chapter 11: Summary and Conclusions the modelling company?, how credible is the earthquake exposure. Whether or not the modelling company? federal government will respond positively to its request for reduced taxes while it builds a Further recommendations: reserve remains to be seen. The insurance 1. A similar analysis should also be industry also awaits the response of the B.C. performed for Eastern Canada. government to its request for separate 2. A sitnilar examination of the vulnerability policies for "fire following" earthquakes. and financial modules should be undertaken. The seismic hazard portion After mitigation, the second phase in of the risk models should be studied in the human-response cycle is emergency greater detail. preparedness — development and practice of 3. Landslide, liquefaction, inundation, and emergency plans to respond to natural "fire following" modules were not hazards and monitoring of the geophysical addressed in this document and need to and atmospheric environment to allow for be evaluated in a similar manner. timely hazard warnings. Responsibility for 4. Other risk models, such as Risk these activities rests with various agencies, Engineers' EQCanada, should also be as laid out in legislation, regulations, and reviewed. by-laws, as well as by custom and practice. 5. This analysis should be repeated for Wind Models. Activities to prepare for emergencies include writing and testing emergency plans, strengthening response capabilities, and 11.4 The Changing Patchwork of providing timely warnings when possible. Responsibility for Natural Such activities fall within the mandates of all levels of government; individuals and Hazards in Canada businesses can also participate. The federal Emergency Preparedness Act requires all a patchwork of Canada has developed departments to prepare and plan for future private market publicly funded programs and emergencies, but provincial authorities can four main types of services, encompassing manage most natural disasters. response activities: mitigation (Chapter 7), Consequently, all provinces have agencies emergency (Chapter 8), preparation for an for emergency planning and preparedness. disaster (Chapter 9), and response to a Municipal governments, particularly for recovery (Chapter 10). highly vulnerable cities such as Vancouver, also have programs. While there is no legal Physical mitigation is performed by requirement to do so, it is wise for of all levels of government. Involvement individuals and businesses to prepare to reducing the local govertunents is crucial emergency plans. Natural-hazard warnings physical impact of natural hazards. are provided by both federal and provincial Provincial governments can ensure that this agencies, depending on the type of hazard. occurs. Some individuals have taken Atmospheric hazards are monitored by homes and preventive action in their Environment Canada, and earthquake financial incentives could businesses, but hazards by Natural Resources Canada. efforts. The property and increase these Flood warnings issue from provincial faces a large, casualty insurance industry agencies that monitor water levels. In its underfunded liability because of British Columbia, the provincial government

211 PART 6: SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS Chapter 11: Summary and Conclusions I provides tsunami warnings to the public and The federal and provincial relevant federal agencies. governments provide financial assistance to municipalities, individuals, and (occasionally) I Response activities - the third phase businesses that have suffered financial losses in the human-response cycle - should begin as a result of natural disasters. They make as soon as a disaster is detected. Those payouts through the Disaster Financial I involved can mobilise and position Assistance Arrangements, and insurance emergency equipment; ensure that companies pay claims to policy holders for individuals are out of danger; provide food, eligible losses and in turn make claims on 1 water, shelter, and medical equipment; and reinsurance companies. Federal and bring damaged services and systems back provincial governments and individual into service. producers participate in programs of crop I insurance. Effective federal, provincial, and municipal capabilities to respond to This study has focused on out-of- I emergencies are vital to minimizing pocket costs such as claims even though casualties from natural disasters. All broader definitions for disasters would governments have assigned responsibilities include fixed costs such as in-house legal and I internally. Which level of government leads executive time spent, as well as external legal emergency response depends on the severity costs, and the avoidance of the loss of I of the disaster. Non-governmental goodwill (measured by lost revenue - an organizations also support emergency opportunity cost) that would follow disputes. responses. Succinct emergency planning by Consideration of these overhead, related out- I governments, businesses, and individuals can of-pocket, and opportunity costs are now help ensure effective disaster response. causing significant changes in management thinking in other industries. I The fourth and final stage of response to a disaster is recovery from the The Canadian patchwork of physical and financial effects. Rebuilding responsibility has evolved in response to a I takes months, sometimes years. It also myriad of local circumstances and higher requires that individuals receive the means to level consultations. At no time has an begin recovering, in the form of financial overall assessment been made of I assistance and/or payouts from insurance. responsibility for natural hazards in Canada - Costs of natural disasters are shared by and perhaps no such assessment is necessary. individuals, insurance companies, reinsurers, What is needed is for each of the responsible 1 private businesses, and government. A study parties to understand the full extent of their in Alberta of the distribution of liability, especially in the event of a major compensation payments found that 11% of urban earthquake and the probability of the I all recovery costs for three events originated increasing frequency of extreme weather in the provincial government's disaster- events in response to climate change. I assistance program. Insurance companies paid over 66%, with the remainder coming from other sources such as business funds, 1 personal funds, and bank loans. I 212 I I APPENDIX A

I APPENDIX A

Participants of the Round Table on the Insurance Industry, Natural Hazards and Environmental Risks

I June, 1997

Mark W. Baker Leonard Brooks I Faculty of Management Supervisor, Disaster Planning - Special Projects State Farm Insurance Companies 105 St. George St. 1845 Clements Road University of Toronto I Pickering, Ontario L1W 3R8 Toronto, Ontario tel: 905-837-5817 tel: 416-978-4457 fax: 905-837-5822 fax: 416-978-5433 I email: [email protected]

I Alison Beder-Solway Srrren Erik Brun Environmental Specialist, Risk Services Ph.D. candidate, Sedgwick Limited Department of Geography I P.O. Box 439 100 St. George St. Toronto-Dominion Centre University of Toronto Toronto, Ontario M5K 1M3 Toronto, Ontario M5S lAl I tel: 416-361-6700 x 268 tel: 416-978-3375 fax: 416-361-6763 fax: 416-978-6729 t email: [email protected] email: [email protected]

Tony Reuvers Ian Burton t General Manager, Environmental Risk Environmental Adaptation Research Group Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Environment Canada Commerce Court, West Tower, 6th Floor 4905 Dufferin St. t Toronto, Ontario M5L 1A2 Downsview, Ontario M3H 5T4 tel: 416-980-4888 tel: 416-739-4314 fax: 416-980-2907 fax: 416-739-4297 I email: [email protected] email: [email protected]

t John Bland Elaine Collier Director, Mathematical Finance Program Vice-President, Department of Mathematics Underwriting Management Services t 100 St. George St. Insurers' Advisory Organization Inc. University of Toronto 18 King St. East, Suite 800 Toronto, Ontario M5S 3G3 Toronto, Ontario M5C IC4 tel: 416-978-4031 tel: 416-601-4518 I 416-368-0333 fax: 416-978-4107 fax: I email: [email protected]

213 1 APPENDIX A I I Alan G. Davenport A.P. (Lino) Grima Director, Professor, Department of Geography Boundary Layer Wind Tunnel Laboratory and Institute for Environmental Studies I Faculty of Engineering Science 33 Willcocks St., Suite 1016 University of Western Ontario University of Toronto London, Ontario N6A 5B9 Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E8 519-661-3338 tel: 416-978-3486 I tel: fax: 519-661-3339 fax: 416-978-3884 email: [email protected] email: [email protected] I

Mona El-Haddad Egon E. Gutzeit Assistant to the Director Senior Vice-President, Technical Insurances & I Institute for Environmental Studies Reinsurance Underwriting Services 33 Willcocks St., Suite 1016 Munich Reinsurance Co. University of Toronto 390 Bay St., 22nd Floor I Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E8 Toronto, Ontario M5H 2Y2 tel: 416-978-6526 tel: 416-359-2135 fax: 416-978-3884 fax: 416-366-4330 I email: [email protected] I David Etkin T. Neil Hamilton Environmental Adaptation Research Group Flood Safety Planner, Public Safety Section Institute for Environmental Studies Water Management Branch, I 33 Willcocks St., Suite 1016 Ministry of Environment, Lands and Parks University of Toronto 765 Broughton St., 2nd floor Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E8 Victoria, British Columbia V8V 1X4 I tel: 416-978-6310 tel: 250-387-3427 fax: 416-978-3884 fax: 250-387-1898 email: [email protected] email: [email protected] I

Dionne Gesink Law Henry Hengeveld I Environmental Consultant, Science Advisor on Climate Change Cushman-Ball Environmental Ltd., Atmospheric Environment Service 2 Eugenie St. East, Environment Canada I Windsor, Ontario N8X 2X8 4905 Dufferin St. tel: 519-966-4139 Downsview, Ontario M3H 5T4 fax: 519-966-6894 tel: 416-739-4323 I èmail: [email protected] fax: 416-739-4882 email: [email protected] I I I 214 I APPENDU( A

Rudolph Henkel Raimo Kallio Director, Insurance - Risk Management Head and Chief Engineer Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce Hydrotecluiical Section, Water Issues Branch 25 King St. West, Commerce Court N, 6th Floor Ecosystems and Environmental Resources Toronto Ontario M5L 1A2 Directorate, tel: 416-980-5446 Environmental Conservation Service, fax: 416-980-3890 Environment Canada 351 St. Joseph Blvd., 4th floor Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0H3 tel: 819-997-2074 fax: 819-994-0237 email: [email protected]

Mike Hewson Eric Khan Policy Advisor, M.B.A. Candidate, Faculty of Management & Policy, Program & International Affairs Institute for Environmental Studies Directorate, Environment Canada, Joseph L. Rotman Centre for Management North Tower, 4th Floor, 10 Wellington St. 105 St. George St., Suite 212 Hull, Quebec KlA 0H3 University of Toronto tel: 819-997-8856 Toronto, Ontario M5S 2E8 fax: 819-994-8854 tel: 416-978-4343 email: [email protected] fax: 416-978-5433 email: [email protected]

Paul Hunt Paul Kovacs Senior Vice President Vice-President, Policy Development Swiss Reinsurance Company Canada Insurance Bureau of Canada 99 Yorlcville Avenue 181 University Avenue, 13th Floor Toronto, Ontario M5R 3K5 Toronto, Ontario M5H 3M7 tel: 416-972-5854 tel: 416-362-2031 fax: 416-972-6111 fax: 416-361-5952

Greg Jenish Sonia Labatt Project Officer, Canadian Institute for Associate Faculty Member Environmental Law and Policy Institute for Environmental Studies 517 College St., Suite 400 33 Willcocks St. Toronto, Ontario M6G 4A2 University of Toronto tel: 416-923-3529 Toronto, Ontario fax: 416-923-5949 tel: 416-487-9197 email: [email protected] fax: 416-487-0720 email: [email protected]

215 APPENDIX A

Claude Lefrancois Peter Pauly Program Coordinator, Professor, Faculty of Management Canadian Global Change Program 105 St. George St. The Royal Society of Canada University of Toronto 225 Metcalfe, #308 Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A1 Ottawa, Ontario K2P 1P9 tel: 416-978-5518 tel: 613-991-5641 fax: 416-978-5813 fax: 613-991-6996 email: [email protected] email: [email protected]

John McKernan Janice L. Reiner Vice President, Environmental Group Vice President, Reinsurance & Risk Management Dale Intermediaries Ltd. Co-operators General Insurance Company 145 Wellington Street West Priory Square Toronto, Ontario M5J 1H8 Guelph, Ontario NIH 6P8 tel: 416-591-1715 x 586 tel: 519-767-3025 fax: 416-591-8923 fax: 519-837-0231

John Newton Angus Ross Principal, John Newton Associates President, SOREMA Management Inc. 262 Robert St. 70 York St., Suite 1520 Toronto, Ontario M5S 2K8 Toronto, Ontario M5J IS9 tel: 416-929-3621 tel: 416-364-3048 fax: 416-929-3621 fax: 416-364-1788 email: [email protected] email: [email protected]

Steve Osselton Wendy Saulesleja Senior Vice President, Risk Services Underwriter, Environmental Risks Sedgwick Limited Commerce & Industry Insurance P.O. Box 439 Company of Canada Toronto-Dominion Centre 145 Wellington St. West Toronto, Ontario M5K 1M3 Toronto, Ontario M5J 1H8 tel: 416-361-6781 tel: 416-596-3002 fax: 416-361-6763 fax: 416-596-3584 email: [email protected]

Man W. Pang Andreas Schwartze Vice-President, Treaty Nac,ora Insurance Brokers Ltd. BEP International Holding Inc. 5935 Airport Road, 10th Floor 145 Wellington St. West, Suite 500 Mississauga, Ontario Toronto, Ontario M5J 1H8 L4V 1X3 tel: 416-593-1800 tel: 416-798-7005 fax: 416-593-1787 fax: 905-672-5280 email: [email protected] email: [email protected]

216 I APPENDIX A

I Steve Scott Fred Wardle Department of Geology President, Copp Clark Professional 22 Russell St. 200 Adelaide St. W., 3rd floor I University of Toronto Toronto, Ontario M5H 1W7 Toronto, Ontario M5S lAl tel: 416-597-1616 x 224 tel: 416-978-5424 fax: 416-597-1617 t fax: 416-978-3938 email: [email protected] email: [email protected]

Roger Street Rodney R. White Director, Director, Institute for Environmental Studies I Environmental Adaptation Research Group 33 Willcocks St., Suite 1016 Environment Canada University of Toronto 4905 Dufferin St. Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E8 t Downsview, Ontario M3H 5T4 tel: 416-978-6526 tel: 416-739-4271 fax: 416-978-3884 fax: 416-739-4297 email: [email protected] t email: [email protected] t Chris Tucker Sue White Senior Scientific Advisor Manager, Emergency Preparedness Canada Association of Canadian Insurers 122 Bank St., Jackson Bldg, 2nd Floor 181 University Avenue, 13th floor t Toronto, Ontario M5H 3M7 Ottawa, Ontario KIA 1X4 tel: 613-991-7071 tel: 416-362-9729 fax: 613-996-0995 fax: 416-361-5952 I email: [email protected] 1 [email protected] Jean-Serge Vincent Judith Wilson Director, Terrain Sciences Division Manager, t Geological Survey of Canada Environmental Database & Networking Initiative Earth Sciences Sector, Institute for Environmental Studies Natural Resources Canada 33 Willcocks St., Suite 1016 t Room 363, 601 Booth St. University of Toronto Ottawa, Ontario K 1 A OE8 Toronto, Ontario M5S 3E8 tel: 613-995-4938 tel: 416-978-5564 I fax: 613-992-0190 fax: 416-978-3884 email: [email protected] email: [email protected] (to Sept 1, 97) I [email protected] (from Sept 1, 97) I I

217 1 I I ll jïiiiiijiui i ûi^iÿ^ GF Coping with natural haza I 85 in Canada : scientific, C671 government and insurarn 1997 industry perspectives: a I studv written for the Roo• DATE DUE I I I I I I I I

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