An Introduction to Mathematical Chaos Theory and Fractal Geometry
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Complexity” Makes a Difference: Lessons from Critical Systems Thinking and the Covid-19 Pandemic in the UK
systems Article How We Understand “Complexity” Makes a Difference: Lessons from Critical Systems Thinking and the Covid-19 Pandemic in the UK Michael C. Jackson Centre for Systems Studies, University of Hull, Hull HU6 7TS, UK; [email protected]; Tel.: +44-7527-196400 Received: 11 November 2020; Accepted: 4 December 2020; Published: 7 December 2020 Abstract: Many authors have sought to summarize what they regard as the key features of “complexity”. Some concentrate on the complexity they see as existing in the world—on “ontological complexity”. Others highlight “cognitive complexity”—the complexity they see arising from the different interpretations of the world held by observers. Others recognize the added difficulties flowing from the interactions between “ontological” and “cognitive” complexity. Using the example of the Covid-19 pandemic in the UK, and the responses to it, the purpose of this paper is to show that the way we understand complexity makes a huge difference to how we respond to crises of this type. Inadequate conceptualizations of complexity lead to poor responses that can make matters worse. Different understandings of complexity are discussed and related to strategies proposed for combatting the pandemic. It is argued that a “critical systems thinking” approach to complexity provides the most appropriate understanding of the phenomenon and, at the same time, suggests which systems methodologies are best employed by decision makers in preparing for, and responding to, such crises. Keywords: complexity; Covid-19; critical systems thinking; systems methodologies 1. Introduction No one doubts that we are, in today’s world, entangled in complexity. At the global level, economic, social, technological, health and ecological factors have become interconnected in unprecedented ways, and the consequences are immense. -
Learning from Benoit Mandelbrot
2/28/18, 7(59 AM Page 1 of 1 February 27, 2018 Learning from Benoit Mandelbrot If you've been reading some of my recent posts, you will have noted my, and the Investment Masters belief, that many of the investment theories taught in most business schools are flawed. And they can be dangerous too, the recent Financial Crisis is evidence of as much. One man who, prior to the Financial Crisis, issued a challenge to regulators including the Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, to recognise these flaws and develop more realistic risk models was Benoit Mandelbrot. Over the years I've read a lot of investment books, and the name Benoit Mandelbrot comes up from time to time. I recently finished his book 'The (Mis)Behaviour of Markets - A Fractal View of Risk, Ruin and Reward'. So who was Benoit Mandelbrot, why is he famous, and what can we learn from him? Benoit Mandelbrot was a Polish-born mathematician and polymath, a Sterling Professor of Mathematical Sciences at Yale University and IBM Fellow Emeritus (Physics) who developed a new branch of mathematics known as 'Fractal' geometry. This geometry recognises the hidden order in the seemingly disordered, the plan in the unplanned, the regular pattern in the irregularity and roughness of nature. It has been successfully applied to the natural sciences helping model weather, study river flows, analyse brainwaves and seismic tremors. A 'fractal' is defined as a rough or fragmented shape that can be split into parts, each of which is at least a close approximation of its original-self. -
Role of Nonlinear Dynamics and Chaos in Applied Sciences
v.;.;.:.:.:.;.;.^ ROLE OF NONLINEAR DYNAMICS AND CHAOS IN APPLIED SCIENCES by Quissan V. Lawande and Nirupam Maiti Theoretical Physics Oivisipn 2000 Please be aware that all of the Missing Pages in this document were originally blank pages BARC/2OOO/E/OO3 GOVERNMENT OF INDIA ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION ROLE OF NONLINEAR DYNAMICS AND CHAOS IN APPLIED SCIENCES by Quissan V. Lawande and Nirupam Maiti Theoretical Physics Division BHABHA ATOMIC RESEARCH CENTRE MUMBAI, INDIA 2000 BARC/2000/E/003 BIBLIOGRAPHIC DESCRIPTION SHEET FOR TECHNICAL REPORT (as per IS : 9400 - 1980) 01 Security classification: Unclassified • 02 Distribution: External 03 Report status: New 04 Series: BARC External • 05 Report type: Technical Report 06 Report No. : BARC/2000/E/003 07 Part No. or Volume No. : 08 Contract No.: 10 Title and subtitle: Role of nonlinear dynamics and chaos in applied sciences 11 Collation: 111 p., figs., ills. 13 Project No. : 20 Personal authors): Quissan V. Lawande; Nirupam Maiti 21 Affiliation ofauthor(s): Theoretical Physics Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai 22 Corporate authoifs): Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai - 400 085 23 Originating unit : Theoretical Physics Division, BARC, Mumbai 24 Sponsors) Name: Department of Atomic Energy Type: Government Contd...(ii) -l- 30 Date of submission: January 2000 31 Publication/Issue date: February 2000 40 Publisher/Distributor: Head, Library and Information Services Division, Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai 42 Form of distribution: Hard copy 50 Language of text: English 51 Language of summary: English 52 No. of references: 40 refs. 53 Gives data on: Abstract: Nonlinear dynamics manifests itself in a number of phenomena in both laboratory and day to day dealings. -
Annotated List of References Tobias Keip, I7801986 Presentation Method: Poster
Personal Inquiry – Annotated list of references Tobias Keip, i7801986 Presentation Method: Poster Poster Section 1: What is Chaos? In this section I am introducing the topic. I am describing different types of chaos and how individual perception affects our sense for chaos or chaotic systems. I am also going to define the terminology. I support my ideas with a lot of examples, like chaos in our daily life, then I am going to do a transition to simple mathematical chaotic systems. Larry Bradley. (2010). Chaos and Fractals. Available: www.stsci.edu/~lbradley/seminar/. Last accessed 13 May 2010. This website delivered me with a very good introduction into the topic as there are a lot of books and interesting web-pages in the “References”-Sektion. Gleick, James. Chaos: Making a New Science. Penguin Books, 1987. The book gave me a very general introduction into the topic. Harald Lesch. (2003-2007). alpha-Centauri . Available: www.br-online.de/br- alpha/alpha-centauri/alpha-centauri-harald-lesch-videothek-ID1207836664586.xml. Last accessed 13. May 2010. A web-page with German video-documentations delivered a lot of vivid examples about chaos for my poster. Poster Section 2: Laplace's Demon and the Butterfly Effect In this part I describe the idea of the so called Laplace's Demon and the theory of cause-and-effect chains. I work with a lot of examples, especially the famous weather forecast example. Also too I introduce the mathematical concept of a dynamic system. Jeremy S. Heyl (August 11, 2008). The Double Pendulum Fractal. British Columbia, Canada. -
Chaos Theory and Its Application to Education: Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Case*
Educational Sciences: Theory & Practice • 14(2) • 510-518 ©2014 Educational Consultancy and Research Center www.edam.com.tr/estp DOI: 10.12738/estp.2014.2.1928 Chaos Theory and its Application to Education: Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Case* Vesile AKMANSOYa Sadık KARTALb Burdur Provincial Education Department Mehmet Akif Ersoy University Abstract Discussions have arisen regarding the application of the new paradigms of chaos theory to social sciences as compared to physical sciences. This study examines what role chaos theory has within the education process and what effect it has by describing the views of university faculty regarding chaos and education. The partici- pants in this study consisted of 30 faculty members with teaching experience in the Faculty of Education, the Faculty of Science and Literature, and the School of Veterinary Sciences at Mehmet Akif Ersoy University in Burdur, Turkey. The sample for this study included voluntary participants. As part of the study, the acquired qualitative data has been tested using both the descriptive analysis method and content analysis. Themes have been organized under each discourse question after checking and defining the processes. To test the data, fre- quency and percentage, statistical techniques were used. The views of the attendees were stated verbatim in the Turkish version, then translated into English by the researchers. The findings of this study indicate the presence of a “butterfly effect” within educational organizations, whereby a small failure in the education process causes a bigger failure later on. Key Words Chaos, Chaos and Education, Chaos in Social Sciences, Chaos Theory. The term chaos continues to become more and that can be called “united science,” characterized by more prominent within the various fields of its interdisciplinary approach (Yeşilorman, 2006). -
The Life and Science of Richard Feynman, by James Gleick
16. Genius: The Life and Science of Richard Feynman, by James Gleick From the author of the national bestseller Chaos comes an outstanding biography of one of the most dazzling and flamboyant scientists of the 20th century that "not only paints a highly attractive portrait of Feynman but also . makes for a stimulating adventure in the annals of science" 15. “Surely You’re Joking, Mr Feynman!” by Richard Feynman and Ralph Leighton Richard Feynman, winner of the Nobel Prize in physics, thrived on outrageous adventures. Here he recounts in his inimitable voice his experience trading ideas on atomic physics with Einstein and Bohr and ideas on gambling with Nick the Greek; cracking the uncrackable safes guarding the most deeply held nuclear secrets; accompanying a ballet on his bongo drums; painting a naked female toreador. In short, here is Feynman's life in all its eccentric―a combustible mixture of high intelligence, unlimited curiosity, and raging chutzpah. 14. D Day – Through German Eyes, The Hidden Story of June 6th 1944, by Holger Eckhertz Almost all accounts of D Day are told from the Allied perspective, with the emphasis on how German resistance was overcome on June 6th 1944. But what was it like to be a German soldier in the bunkers and gun emplacements of the Normandy coast, facing the onslaught of the mightiest seaborne invasion in history? What motivated the German defenders, what were their thought processes - and how did they fight from one strong point to another, among the dunes and fields, on that first cataclysmic day? What were their experiences on facing the tanks, the flamethrowers and the devastating air superiority of the Allies? This book sheds fascinating light on these questions, bringing together statements made by German survivors after the war, when time had allowed them to reflect on their state of mind, their actions and their choices of June 6th. -
The Edge of Chaos – an Alternative to the Random Walk Hypothesis
THE EDGE OF CHAOS – AN ALTERNATIVE TO THE RANDOM WALK HYPOTHESIS CIARÁN DORNAN O‟FATHAIGH Junior Sophister The Random Walk Hypothesis claims that stock price movements are random and cannot be predicted from past events. A random system may be unpredictable but an unpredictable system need not be random. The alternative is that it could be described by chaos theory and although seem random, not actually be so. Chaos theory can describe the overall order of a non-linear system; it is not about the absence of order but the search for it. In this essay Ciarán Doran O’Fathaigh explains these ideas in greater detail and also looks at empirical work that has concluded in a rejection of the Random Walk Hypothesis. Introduction This essay intends to put forward an alternative to the Random Walk Hypothesis. This alternative will be that systems that appear to be random are in fact chaotic. Firstly, both the Random Walk Hypothesis and Chaos Theory will be outlined. Following that, some empirical cases will be examined where Chaos Theory is applicable, including real exchange rates with the US Dollar, a chaotic attractor for the S&P 500 and the returns on T-bills. The Random Walk Hypothesis The Random Walk Hypothesis states that stock market prices evolve according to a random walk and that endeavours to predict future movements will be fruitless. There is both a narrow version and a broad version of the Random Walk Hypothesis. Narrow Version: The narrow version of the Random Walk Hypothesis asserts that the movements of a stock or the market as a whole cannot be predicted from past behaviour (Wallich, 1968). -
Strategies and Rubrics for Teaching Chaos and Complex Systems Theories As Elaborating, Self-Organizing, and Fractionating Evolutionary Systems Lynn S
Strategies and Rubrics for Teaching Chaos and Complex Systems Theories as Elaborating, Self-Organizing, and Fractionating Evolutionary Systems Lynn S. Fichter1,2, E.J. Pyle1,3, S.J. Whitmeyer1,4 ABSTRACT To say Earth systems are complex, is not the same as saying they are a complex system. A complex system, in the technical sense, is a group of ―agents‖ (individual interacting units, like birds in a flock, sand grains in a ripple, or individual units of friction along a fault zone), existing far from equilibrium, interacting through positive and negative feedbacks, forming interdependent, dynamic, evolutionary networks, that possess universality properties common to all complex systems (bifurcations, sensitive dependence, fractal organization, and avalanche behaviour that follows power- law distributions.) Chaos/complex systems theory behaviors are explicit, with their own assumptions, approaches, cognitive tools, and models that must be taught as deliberately and systematically as the equilibrium principles normally taught to students. We present a learning progression of concept building from chaos theory, through a variety of complex systems, and ending with how such systems result in increases in complexity, diversity, order, and/or interconnectedness with time—that is, evolve. Quantitative and qualitative course-end assessment data indicate that students who have gone through the rubrics are receptive to the ideas, and willing to continue to learn about, apply, and be influenced by them. The reliability/validity is strongly supported by open, written student comments. INTRODUCTION divided into fractions through the addition of sufficient Two interrelated subjects are poised for rapid energy because of differences in the size, weight, valence, development in the Earth sciences. -
Mild Vs. Wild Randomness: Focusing on Those Risks That Matter
with empirical sense1. Granted, it has been Mild vs. Wild Randomness: tinkered with using such methods as Focusing on those Risks that complementary “jumps”, stress testing, regime Matter switching or the elaborate methods known as GARCH, but while they represent a good effort, Benoit Mandelbrot & Nassim Nicholas Taleb they fail to remediate the bell curve’s irremediable flaws. Forthcoming in, The Known, the Unknown and the The problem is that measures of uncertainty Unknowable in Financial Institutions Frank using the bell curve simply disregard the possibility Diebold, Neil Doherty, and Richard Herring, of sharp jumps or discontinuities. Therefore they editors, Princeton: Princeton University Press. have no meaning or consequence. Using them is like focusing on the grass and missing out on the (gigantic) trees. Conventional studies of uncertainty, whether in statistics, economics, finance or social science, In fact, while the occasional and unpredictable have largely stayed close to the so-called “bell large deviations are rare, they cannot be dismissed curve”, a symmetrical graph that represents a as “outliers” because, cumulatively, their impact in probability distribution. Used to great effect to the long term is so dramatic. describe errors in astronomical measurement by The good news, especially for practitioners, is the 19th-century mathematician Carl Friedrich that the fractal model is both intuitively and Gauss, the bell curve, or Gaussian model, has computationally simpler than the Gaussian. It too since pervaded our business and scientific culture, has been around since the sixties, which makes us and terms like sigma, variance, standard deviation, wonder why it was not implemented before. correlation, R-square and Sharpe ratio are all The traditional Gaussian way of looking at the directly linked to it. -
Bézier Curves Are Attractors of Iterated Function Systems
New York Journal of Mathematics New York J. Math. 13 (2007) 107–115. All B´ezier curves are attractors of iterated function systems Chand T. John Abstract. The fields of computer aided geometric design and fractal geom- etry have evolved independently of each other over the past several decades. However, the existence of so-called smooth fractals, i.e., smooth curves or sur- faces that have a self-similar nature, is now well-known. Here we describe the self-affine nature of quadratic B´ezier curves in detail and discuss how these self-affine properties can be extended to other types of polynomial and ra- tional curves. We also show how these properties can be used to control shape changes in complex fractal shapes by performing simple perturbations to smooth curves. Contents 1. Introduction 107 2. Quadratic B´ezier curves 108 3. Iterated function systems 109 4. An IFS with a QBC attractor 110 5. All QBCs are attractors of IFSs 111 6. Controlling fractals with B´ezier curves 112 7. Conclusion and future work 114 References 114 1. Introduction In the late 1950s, advancements in hardware technology made it possible to effi- ciently manufacture curved 3D shapes out of blocks of wood or steel. It soon became apparent that the bottleneck in mass production of curved 3D shapes was the lack of adequate software for designing these shapes. B´ezier curves were first introduced in the 1960s independently by two engineers in separate French automotive compa- nies: first by Paul de Casteljau at Citro¨en, and then by Pierre B´ezier at R´enault. -
Towards a Theory of Social Fractal Discourse: Some Tentative Ideas
Page 1 of 16 ANZAM 2012 Towards a Theory of Social Fractal Discourse: Some Tentative Ideas Dr James Latham Faculty of Business and Enterprise, Swinburne University of Technology, Victoria, Australia Email: [email protected] Amanda Muhleisen PhD Candidate, Faculty of Business and Enterprise, Swinburne University of Technology, Victoria, Australia Email: [email protected] Prof Robert Jones Faculty of Business and Enterprise, Swinburne University of Technology, Victoria, Australia Email: [email protected] ANZAM 2012 Page 2 of 16 ABSTRACT The development of chaos theory and fractal geometry has made significant contribution to our understanding of the natural world. As students of organization, chaos theory provides an opportunity to broaden our thinking beyond the linear and predictable with its presumed stability, in order to embrace chaos rather than stability as the ‘default’ state for organization. This demands we think in new ways about organizational theory and practice. It also creates a schism in the fabric of our knowledge - a divide to be bridged. By taking the scientific concept of fractals and applying it to a social theory of discourse, this paper hopes to emerge some tentative ideas around developing a theory of social fractal discourse. Keywords: chaos theory, instability, organizing as process, critical discourse analysis, complexity The aim of this paper is to outline a number of tentative ideas around the development of a theory of social fractal discourse. It will focus on qualities and features of fractal and chaotic systems. Drawing on ideas from chaos and complexity theory, we will argue that discourse can be fractal. While there is some difference in theoretical constructs within the complexity literature, we will use the terms fractal and chaos interchangeably throughout this paper. -
A Brief History of Stephen Hawking's Blockbuster
COMMENT BOOKS & ARTS IAN BERRY/MAGNUM PHOTOS IAN BERRY/MAGNUM Stephen Hawking and colleagues at the University of Cambridge in the 1980s, before the publication of A Brief History of Time. PUBLISHING A brief history of Stephen Hawking’s blockbuster Elizabeth Leane surveys the extraordinary influence of the physicist’s first foray into popular-science publishing. owards the end of The Theory of rarely reach the million mark, and are usu- History of Time is not, as is sometimes Everything, the 2014 film about ally much lower. So this is an astounding claimed, unprecedented. There were Stephen Hawking, scenes depict the achievement for a science book aimed at nineteenth-century science blockbusters Treception of his popular science classic, A the non-scientist, and especially for one such as mathematician Mary Somerville’s Brief History of Time (1988). The camera that grapples with the some of the biggest 1834 On the Connexion of the Physical zooms in on a large display of the book in questions in physics — the Big Bang, black Sciences (see R. Holmes Nature 514, 432– a shop window; fans crowd the physicist- holes, a ‘theory of everything’ and the nature 433; 2014). And in 1930, physicist James author, hoping that he will autograph their of time. As Hawking entertainingly related Jeans’ The Mysterious Universe achieved a copies. Future events are outlined in the in a 2013 essay in The Wall Street Journal, comparable reception to Hawking’s book film’s closing titles: the first relates not to he rewrote A Brief History repeatedly at (in Britain, at least); the jacket of the 1937 the ongoing impact of Hawking’s scientific the behest of his editor, Peter Guzzardi at Pelican edition promotes it as “the famous achievements or the challenges of living Bantam, to make it more understandable to book which upset tradition by making with motor neuron disease, but to the sales a lay readership.