Se Source
Year End 52 Weeks high/low (HK$) 52 high/low(HK$) 52 Weeks vol. average 3 month m) (HK$ cap. Market (m) issue in Shares 2018F 2017F 2016F 2015A 2014A 12/31 年结 e 公司报告： Company Report: 销售增 Growth Sales
th e :
the Company,the Guotai Junan las 201 对应 年的 均水平及行业平均水平，但我们相信估值是合适的，因为我们预计盈利在 和通过 上调 所提高 将透过推出 及 年 我们 我们预计销量在 豪 推动公司的增长， 2017 14.3x9.1x2017 PER, 2018 PER, 3.2x2017and PBR 2.4x 2018 PBR. We peers. its among highest industry and bottom average historical high expect abovewe as appropriate is valuation the believe we and average, is valuation 2017F current brand th a upgrade and cycles product Strong visibility. earning high with ahead, “Buy”. to rating investment Upgrade moreSUV marginwill als GL / GS Emgrand / Boyue fromeffect year full a and ahead cycle product strong prompt which units million 2016 forecast earnings our raise We 50 2017 Jan. / 10,333/20,147 GLsold Emgrand maintaining continue 2016 in introduced models Sales momentum continued in 博越 t GL 100 .
1 8 pag 投资评级为“ 对 长在 %, 1 3 年 年市净率。 - 在 4.3 吉利汽车 2018 “ 。 / 万 2016 年复合增长率为 帝豪 LYNC - e 1
line growth of 3 of growthline 42 2017 台的销售 RB m) (RMB fo 倍 月份销售动能持续，同比上升 Turnover 121,156 121,156 , / . 2017 SUV r s/ /2017/ respectively ,
4 GS/ 82,951 82,951 51,550 30,138 21,738 rough “LYNC & Co.” are key drivers behind the growth. The growth. the behind drivers key are Co.” & “LYNC rough
201 contribut 总股数 & iin U ae e t cret er rwh AP n GP and ASP growth. year current to key are SUV Vision disclaimer
% and % the 年 3
市值 收入 Co.” NEV o improvedue to
远景 2016 个月平均成交股数 ， 7
1 买入 并 ( saleslevel4Q16. of Boyue / Emgrand VisionGS / SUV/ 年市盈率 目标，促使我们修订我们的预测。我们相信未来的强劲产品周期以 2018 新能源汽车 00175HK 月分别销售
的品牌升级是增长的关键推动力。
年持续
维持 (HK$ m)
s - (m) SUV/ 27
周高 2018 ” n hog t rmu rn. andthrough its premium brand. ing International 年的盈利预测 66
。 .
2016 0
. / - 帝豪 吉利 % in % 2016 Net Profit Geely Auto 1 低 (RMB m) year CAGR of 66.1% in 2015 in 66.1% of CAGRyear 、 50% of total sales. We fo We sales. total of 50% 年分别增长 股东净利 ％，是同业中最高的。
.
10,400 10,400 9.1 to 和高端 ， ed ) 6,643 4,653 2,261 1,431 20,147 20,147 / 10,333 / 10 年第四季度 策略
Manage GL
倍 上调至
. us to revise our forecast our revise to us
的全年效应是本年度增长的关键。 raise
( 明确 201 an ‘ Extend in 2017 in Extend 产品而上升转移 000) 上调
Jan -
08rsetvl. 2018respectively. 50.1 upward shift 8 ， 70
et e ot t 21 tre o 1 of target 2017 its out set ment s 10,226 / 10,208 units respectivelyunitsin10,208 /10,226
年市盈率 TP 的销售水平。 d 并具有清晰的盈利能力 19.4%/26.1%/20.5% . 201 .
. 每股净利 8
% “ y 94 / 61 / 05 in 20.5% / 26.1% / 19.4% by % (RMB) o ul rwh o te Company, the for growth fuel to 买入 1.176 0.751 0.527 0.257 0.163 、 to 。 EPS
42 7 (
吉利在 el hs cer strategy clear a has Geely HK 00175 , K1.5 wih represents which HK$12.05, ,226 ,226 / 10,208 、 . 我们上调 up
4 ， % ” 3.2 目前 每股净利变动
in the 及 平均销售价 70.8 10.26 博越 2016 倍 recast sales growth of growth sales recast 27 201 201
目标价 . % / ( 0 (46.6)
0 105.4 帝豪 - △ productportfolio to EPS % 年推出的新车型继续 63,946.7 90,671.8 2018, which 2018, 56.5 56.5 42.5 57.9 s 7 。 yoy 8,889.4 7 / %) . We believe the believe We .
。 管理层设定了 台，占销售的 年估值高于历史平 。强大的产品周期 2.76 年市净率和
GS/ 和毛利率也将有
至 ) .
Geely’s new 由于产品组合 0 12.05 远景
201
市盈率 , SUV/ 5
港元 PER
is 12.1 12.1 17.2 33.0 49.3 2. - FY1 FY1 (%) Free float Maj 50%
2018 2017 7.7 Upgrade to Upgrade (x) 4 the
帝 倍 ， or shareholder shareholder or
7 7 。
Est. NAV (HK$) gearing Net 每 股净
(RMB)
4.454 3.390 2.713 2.218 1.964
Source 100.0 150.0 200.0 250.0 300.0 (50.0) B 股价表现 Stock performance 资产 50.0 自由流通比率 平均股价（港元） Avg 相对恒指变动 % HS to Rel. index 绝对变动 Abs.% 股价变动 Share Price Change in Shareprice from Revised 6 评级： Rating: PS 0.0 - Feb-16 18m TP . (%)
share price(HK$) share 大股东 :
Bloomberg
FY1 FY1
%return of %
7
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每股估值（港元）
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“ 目标价
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:
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GeelyAutomobile
Toliver Ma Toliver
3 股息率 el Hlig 42.7% Holding Geely 个月 Fbur 2017 February 9 3 M 3 26.3 28.8 Yield 8.2 (%) 2.4 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.3 Nov-16 +85225095317
HK
HK 买入 净资产收益率 Upgraded $ Page Page
$ HK$ 12.05 马守彰 10.200 Net cash 1
1 1 Y 218.2 240.0 Buy ( 5.8 年 上调 57.3 9.04 12.70
1
ROE
29.7 29.7 24.4 21.2 12.2
(%) of of
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) %
8
Compa ny Report Geely Auto 吉利汽车 (00175 HK) GTJA Research 国泰君安研究
Se ring: Inner Note: Source: Figure Source: Figur Geely for contributor Emgrand) (New sedan Emgrand existing GL Emgrand launching Association Boyue and models new brand three 2017, compared to just 11.7% in 2015. In 2016, Geely has also proven that they are also able to craft quality SUV product its transformed successful 2016, in foundation solid a built has Geely 3Q will 2Qor 2017. extend to of orders for these popular models, especially Boyue 10,226 themaintaining sales level as ifthe tax purchase cut plant. sales record to month second the was which units, 20,147 Geely as 2016, in launched models it as vehicle displacement in continued momentum Sales Company 100,000 100,000 120,000 20,000 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 Units e th
- sold sold e e
the Company the Company the enhl, te mjr oes uh s iin eis and series Vision as such models major other Meanwhile, - - las n hc Bye sneak Boyue which in 3 1 / 10.1%
: : 10,208 10,208 t
6.1% Geely Geely 102 pag launch of new cars, cars, new of launch 10.0%
Jan market, SUV crowded ever the into breaking only Not . 2015 growth 2015 Jan. Jan. e , Updates 17.6% 653 9.9%
fo Feb 8.1% ’ ’ r , , 201 s Volume Monthlys Sales units units
Guotai Junan International Guotai Junan International Guotai Junan disclaimer 10.0%
Sales bySales Model Mar vehicles in vehicles 6 14.3% 3.9% ’ ; o ; ae Jn 07 55) 2017: sales (Jan. 25.5%). s s 2.5%
0.6% 24.4% Apr uter ring: ring: uter coming int coming respectively, s
at May in
to a fairly balanced portfolio, in whi inportfolio, balanced fairly a to create not did GL Emgrand of launch the noticed, As 3Q16. of end the
37.5% Jun with 2016 growth 2016 Jan ed Jan and at the same time able to keep up with its sedan market sedan its with up keep to able time same the at and 25.5%
. 201 . 19.6% Jul effect o no h tp 0 U brand SUV 10 top the into
over 10,000 units of sales for its Em its for sales of units 10,000 over . 201 .
J
n contributed and
7 Aug an was
. .
201 . 7
Sep and the and ,
was able to to able
Oct register Others Boyrui GL Emgrand King Kong GS Emgrand SUV Vision Vision Boyue Emgrand EC7 7
. able to maintain strong sales in the 4Q16 the in sales strong maintain to able Nov opti ept te e prhs tx ae 21: .% s 06 5) for 5%) 2016: vs 7.5% (2017: rate tax purchase new the Despite 2017 2017 growth 2017
disruptions ; ing
keep up with up keep
Dec benefit mizing remained at 30% 0% - 100% 120% 20% 40% 60% 80% 20% a yoy growth of of growth yoy a ing to
of of its product portfolio product its
of Chinese New Year, NewChinese of from the low base in the first half, we believe growth momentum ch SUV sales SUV ch s Jan. Source: Source: Figure
over 20,000 units as an indication of full of indication an as units 20,000 over
Sou Figure n e. 06 o te is time first the for 2016 Dec. in the the
hal rce: rce:
100% 100% 20 Geely has not forgotten not has Geely 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
the Company the f 0% sales level sales - 0% . Emgrand. mrn sre al otne t dlvr tog sales, strong deliver to continued all series Emgrand 7 sales 17 4 Company the - 2 : 70.8 grand GS / Vision SUV and 20,000 units of sales for for sales of units 20,000 and SUV Vision / GS grand : Geely
Jan-08 S hare hare 88.3% 11.7% 2013 %. Jul-08 contributed . ’
, s
Jan-09 new by fuelled be to continued sales Strong T s Guotai Junan International Guotai Junan , GS of Sales bySales
ee r sil ag amount large still are here Guotai Junan International Guotai Junan
Jul-09 in .
Domestic sales sales Domestic
Export and SalesDomestic
n o te key the of One Geely / 4Q16. Flagship SUV model Boyue sold Boyue model SUV Flagship 4Q16.
Jan-10 84.9% 15.1% Vision SUV 2014
Jul-10 nearly 40% of company sales in Jan. in companysales of 40% nearly
Sedan Jan-11 ’ s growth seems to be to seems growth s and Vehicle Type its shares in the sedan market bymarket sedan the in shares its Jul-11 has Geely that notice could We .
88.3% 11.7% , continue 2015 Jan-12
as as
SUV /
Jul-12 Export Sales Export Emgrand
compiled . rvr i 21 ws the was 2016 in drivers
Jan-13 .
cannibalization operation
Jul-13 d
69.4% 30.6%
2016 Jan-14 the be to s GL
Jul-14
y hn Auto China by f undelivered of
Jan-15 sold sold
unstoppable s YTD 2017 s Page Page
, launching 60.3% 39.7% Jul-15 from Baoji Baoji from
strongest
Jan-16 10,333
as the the as 2
Jul-16 small of of
8 Jan-17
/
Company Report Geely Auto 吉利汽车 (00175 HK) 9 February 2017
Se Source: Figure Source: New Emgrand Borui Boyue GSPHEV Emgrand 02 Co. & LYNC 01 Co. & LYNC Borui PHEV SUV Emgrand Emgrand HEV Emgrand Mini Emgrand EV Emgrand Model Table and Mini 2018, itdown slow to faceliftof A series or roll out F sedan of terms EV Emgrand new be will whichbe pure 35%electric. HEVto in NEV by65% PHEVand achieving or 90% sales of 2020, Ayear to future features. systems road and vehicles other with communicate and phones names. was between distinctive and sedans and crossovers as such be will which Architecture vehicles reported, widely As Germany. through forward leap A Future uel uel cons e PHE
th , King Kong Companydraws the
revealed
align e
- . including including a sedan and a mid the Com the Company the 1 - las V in in either
PHEV 5 : Geely Geely
. : average t In terms of of terms In umption will decrease to 4.9L/100km and 1.5L/100km
expect Outlook ing LYNC 01 &Co. pag from
”
pany
, ( available in 4Q17 in available e with Geely with
“ strongly s and judging by the configuration and configuration the by judging and s CMA fo ’
are also expected. s New Models New s EV or PHEV versions. the original Geely brand with a strong sense of of sense strong a with brand Geely original the , Geely will continue to build build to continue Geelywill , paceitsforbrand existing r . Int Guotai Junan ,
new energynew vehicles Geely and Volvoand Geely disclaimer would be would s ”
) platform jointly developed developed jointly platform ) and new models underway models newand an
emphasis 2017 2017 2017 2017 4Q17 4Q17 4Q17 3Q17 2Q17 2H16 1Q17 1H17 date Launch ’ electric version, it is expected expected is it version, electric s closer to
latest design latest e brand new
released,
ernational.
in Current Current in Year and are also are e
s - the
size
models connectivity and smart smart and connectivity will hit will
level of of level and For its SUV, electrification for Emgrand GS will
d “ s .
YC Co. & LYNC
SUV. In order to and should launch in 1H17. Facelift 1H17. in launch should and in the pipeline the in hc are which
s we are expecting more expecting are we , and will be sold both domestically and globally.and Fro domestically both sold be will and ,
. the international market as market international the
Awill carsnew brand series of on other In In terms of
Facelift Facelift Facelift New New New New New New New (Panda) New generation Facelift upgrade of Mode its Emgrand sedan which a HEV and PHEV version are waiting in the wings the in waiting are version PHEV and HEV a which itsEmgrand sedan
with .
Despite Despite
established brand international comply comply with manufactu appearance Volvo. The first car to be launched will be a compact SUV named named SUV compact a be will launched be to car first Volvo.The
” . . that h long The We We
a
technology
new and generation facelift, Panda will be rebranded as Emgrand that pure electric and plug and electric pure
believe Source: Source: Figure
, e udr hs rn ae ae o the on based are brand this under red
the new brand has drawn much attention, Geely has no plan plan no has Geely attention, much drawn has brand new the luxury respectively stricter , the design is highly comparable highly is design the ,
NEV a t ,
atd e brand new waited
the Company the - the u enhanc hus 6 .
: in this brand this in s earl
Cars manufactured under this brand will be priced in in priced be will brand this under manufactured Cars Sedan Sedan SUV PHEV Crossover SUV Compact in plug Hybrid SUV in plug Hybrid Hybrid Sedan electric Pure Types Vehicle fuel requirementconsumption
Emgrand Emgrand Mini launch of the new brand new the of launch in y the
be . In addition, Borui and King Kong sedan will also
s as 2018 as
. on Borui, Boyue, new Emgrand (or Xin Dihao) Xin (or Emgrand new Boyue, Borui, on current year current roll
ing
ed - s
in hybrid version hybrid in
,
s in
be be introduced . Going forward, Going . etrs uh as such features out from its manufacturing line in 2017 /from its in line out manufacturing uch asuch Toyota which vehicles can be vehiclescan which
was , especially its Emgrand series Emgrand its especially ,
eeld n Oct in revealed m the launch event, only event, launch the m raises
in to s and
1.4T 1.8T/2.4L 1. n.a. 1.5T 2.0T1.5T / n.a. 1.3T n.a. n.a. 1.0L n.a. Displacement
the the forms of will be be will s other some of the top brand top the of some
In In p 8T / 2.0L / 8T , safety and auto pilot pilot auto and safety
Geely has a Geely a has strategy
Honda Geely
“ rior year rior opc Modular Compact
types of vehicles of types .
roll
connected with with connected Berlin, in 2016
’s .
ed
The brand is The is brand
brand name brand Page Page either either
s out i out , a b a , 3
n the n of of HEV “ rand “ 01 01 . 8
In
” ” . ,
Company Report Geely Auto 吉利汽车 (00175 HK) 9 February 2017
Se Source: 3 EPS Netprofit margin Operating margin Grossprofit margin Shareholders'profit Grossprofit Salesrevenue (RMB mn) BlendedASP Salesvolume (units) Table Source: Basics (RMB)EPS NetIncome (Loss) GrossProfit Margin Revenue Financials(RMB mn) SalesVolume Vehiclesales (Units) Table provide portfolio of shift upward the believe weefficiency, operating reaping thus 2017, early in auto parts translate Margin: GP selling moreas expensive cars ASP Blended will be to able achieve and its target. current Geely that think we vehicles, displacement small for subsidy tax in reduction think we models popular for potential sales unleash through up ramp the full year effect from new models launched in 2016 such as Boyue Sales the following keyon assumptions We forecast shareholders Earnings
yoy yoy yoy yoy yoy e th e - - - yearCAGR 2 the Compa the 3 Company the v las
: : olume:
a margin. better
s that Key operating and financialsKey and operating Summary assumptionsin key of changes t
,
to 1) greater operating leverage as more fixed costfixed more leverage as operating greater 1) to pag and
-
We We
the the Forecast RMB/unit e : ny fo raisedalso o We 3) 3) capacity Geely announced has its targetsales of
r Int Guotai Junan , Int Guotai Junan ,
management
have have the Company the disclaimer
further upgraded our forecast on GP on forecast our upgraded further
s
is ’
benefits
profit
better
’s ernational. ernational.
765,851 , ’
s 51,550
such that NEV more ur ur 19.5% 2016F target is conservative based on the numb the on based conservative is target 0.527 4 :
Baoji and Jinzhong plant Jinzhong and Baoji ,653 to increase forecast
utilized as both Baoji and Jin from economies economies from
417,851
- - - -
52,024 21,738
18.2% 46.3% 31.3% 24.3% 24.0% 1,090,579 - - 1,431 3,963 0.4% 7.8% 6.6% 9.2% 2014 New .
82,951 on 20.2% 2017F B 0.751 6,643
ased on past experience of upward of experience past on ased
ASP
105.
8
as we Geely think
1,385,106 s %, of of
121,156 and SUVand 10,400 20.9% 2018F scales as well as scales 1 million 1 million 42.8 1.176 510,097 s 30,138 59,083 18.2% 58.0% 38.1% 38.6% 13.6% 22.1%
- % and 2,261 5,471 , i.e. , and 1.7% 7.5% 9.3% s are s
2015 margin due to the significant increase in sales volume sales in increase significant the to due margin
s
zhong plant
will units in 2017
extra boost from technical upgrades in existing plants existing in upgrades technical from boost extra
more sales of of sales more
to be shared be to 704,077 56
46,795
dominate 18.5% 2016F and
0.442 3,898
. is as the lesser the as 5
% in 2016 moving its product portfolio to
Emgrand GL / GS. er of models to models of er
s
just started in and4Q16 will .
is the is 765,851
the 105.8% We strongly believe We 10,071 51,550 Old 67,311 , 18.4% 19.5% 84.1% 71.0% 19.0% 50.1% 2016F 953,717 11.3%
4,653 2) stronger2) 9.0% 75,747 SUV 18.8% 2017F
revision 0.596 5,267 future -
2018
least affecte least new plant set up cost up set plant new
s
and the launch of of launch the and
, sales proportion
respectively.
be 1,216,6 of sales target sales of
115,955 bargaining In particular, we believe capacity
roll 19.5% 2018F 0.976 8,632 1,090,579 ed d among self among d 41
16,795 82,951 76,062
that 66.6% 10.0% 20.2% 42.8% 66.8% 60 13.0% 42.4% 2017F out this year.the Despite this out
6,643
8.0%
.9%
1.0 ppt1.0 the the 19.4% 19.4% 10.2% 2016F
Our forecast is based power for powerfor it 8.8% s . ’
s achievable achievable s due to
be s
in 2015 and 2016, and 2015 in
higher end higher end as well “
LYNC & Co. & LYNC in 2017. Beside 2017. in
Changes fully operat
- owned brand owned 1.4 ppt1.4
26.1% 26.1% 14.4% 2017F
9.5% Page Page purchasing
1,385,106
, 121,156
4 10,400 25,371 87,471 ppt1.4
which 66.1% 10.6% 20.9% 56.5% 51.1% 46.1% 15.0% 27.0% 2018F 2 2 1 2018F
” ional of of 8.6% 0 0 4.5 3 ,
. . . will will 5 5 8 8 % % % %
s s
Company Report Geely Auto 吉利汽车 (00175 HK) 9 February 2017
Se Source: Figure which high bottom 2017 distinctive successful been has brand Chinese through upgrade brand a and cycles product Strong Upgrade Valuation Source: Figure 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 100,000 100,000 4 6 8 10,000 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 80,000 90,000 e th F valuation is above historical average and industry average, and we believe the valuation is appropriate as we expect we as appropriate is valuation the believe we and average, industry and average historical above is valuation F e (X) Feb 06 - represen the Company the Bloomberg - - las
Jun 06 9 7 : Geely of PERBand :
Oct 06 t investment rating investment
Geely’s ASP Profit Gross Margin and Blended ASP Blended pag Feb 07 from 18.2% 52,024 - 2014
PE (historical high) PE (historical PE (2017F) PE band Jun 07 line line growth of 3
e Oct 07 , Guotai Junan International. , Guotai Junan fo Feb 08 t s brand existing the r ,
Jun 08
14.3 Guotai Junan International Guotai Junan disclaimer Oct 08 18.2% 59,083
Feb 09 2015
Jun 09 - x Oct 09 RMB/unit Feb 10 201 Jun 10
2016F 19.5% 67,311
7 Oct 10 - year CAGR of
PE
Feb 11 to
Jun 11 R Oct 11 “ Buy
Feb 12 , and 9.1 2017F Jun 12 20.2% 76,062
Oct 12 in PE (Historical low) PE (Historical PE (2018F) mean) PE (historical ” Gross profit margin profit Gross .
x
Feb 13 with plans to break into developed market such as such market developed into break to plans with
with TP of HK$ of TP with 20 Jun 13 breaking Oct 13 1 66.1 2018F Feb 14 20.9% 87,471 8
Jun 14 Oct 14 PER, Feb 15 % in 201
Jun 15 into Oct 15 16.5% 17.0% 17.5% 18.0% 18.5% 19.0% 19.5% 20.0% 20.5% 21.0% 21.5% Feb 16 3.2 the the
Jun 16 “ x YC Co. & LYNC 5
Oct 16 1 20 - Feb 17 2.0 2018, which is premium 1 7 5
. PBR Source: Source: Figure
Geely has a clear strategy ahead, with high earning visibility.earning high with ahead, strategy clear a has Geely Source: Source: Figure 1,000,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 1,600,000 Units 200,000 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000
and market, we remain optimistic as the new brand is brand new the as optimistic remain we market, ”
the Company the 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 - r ky rvr bhn te rwh Althou growth. the behind drivers key are 8 Bloomberg - - : Forecasts Sales of Geely 10 2.4 the (X) Feb 06 :Geely of PBRBand Jun 06 1.3% x
Oct 06 highest among its peers. 201 2011
PB(historical high) PB(historical PB(2017F) PB band Feb 07 14.7% , Guotai
Jun 07 , Guotai Ju 8 Oct 07 Sales 2012 Feb 08 PBR. Jun 08 13.7% Junan International. Junan Oct 08 2013
Feb 09 - nan International nan 24.0% Jun 09
Oct 09 the 2014
Feb 10 22.1% Sales growth (LHS) Sales growth
Jun 10 Oct 10 U
2015 . S
Feb 11 50.1% .
Jun 11
and Europe. T Europe. and
Oct 11 2016F .
W
Feb 12 42.4%
Jun 12 e
Oct 12 set 2017F 27.0%
PB(historical low) PB(historical PB (2018F) mean) PB (historical Feb 13
Jun 13 TP Oct 13 2018F
Feb 14 at gh no other no gh 0.0% - - - 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%
Page Page Jun 14 30.0% 20.0% 10.0%
h Oct 14 HK$ Feb 15 current e
5 Jun 15 12
more
of of Oct 15
Feb 16 . 8 0
Jun 16 5
Oct 16 , Feb 17
Company Report Geely Auto 吉利汽车 (00175 HK) 9 February 2017
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KRW JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY JPY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY CNY HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD HKD Currency INR USD SEK EUR EUR EUR EUR EUR USD USD USD
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139,000.00 139,000.00 Last price 1,492.00 1,272.00 4,458.00 4,392.00 1,549.00 3,574.00 6,385.00 1,132.50 467.10 468. 145.65 117.30 14.77 15.27 29.63 14.15 19.92 15.70 12.53 15.89 25.18 12.35 14.36 12.22 46.20 12.30 10.20 35.10 83.37 95.73 66.79 83.30 67.63 27.31 12.34 11.64 11.30 3.40 6.92 6.23 8.22 2.56 8.63 8.60 75
166.4 503.7 13.5 14.2 29.3 17.3 22.4 10.7 90.9 10.1 10.5 13.0 13.8 13.2 20.9 20.1 13.8 12.2 41.3 69.9 15.5 19.8 14.1 27.4 24.7 48.7 20.5 51.5 15.6 16.3 36.7 20.5 14.8 31.3 10.6 11.5 11.5 11.9 11.2 11.7 15A n.a. 6.5 5.8 8.9 9.9 8.2 7.4 6.2 9.2 8.8 6.7 7.9 8.6 8.9 8.6
24.2 18.9 38.6 21.8 30.1 14.1 15.3 31.4 23.1 10.0 21.9 15.3 17.9 10.8 16.8 10.4 14.8 18.1 62.4 17.3 10.6 10.5 17.0 15.6 15.0 20.4 13.7 39.1 11.3 11.3 11.8 11.0 16F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.6 8.8 9.7 7.1 5.4 5.8 7.0 7.5 8.1 9.0 7.0 6.1 9.7 9.7 8.3 5.8 8.6 8.5 7.5 PE
141.5 19.6 15.4 22.7 17.5 56.5 10.7 21.8 12.0 12.6 21.6 18.6 20.2 12.5 12.3 18.3 10.3 24.1 26.4 16.3 37.7 19.1 15.4 13.4 10.7 15.7 10.9 14.8 18.2 10.4 17.9 11.3 11.0 11.0 11.8 11.9 11.6 11.4 17F n.a. 6.4 7.9 8.2 8.5 7.0 5.4 5.8 6.2 7.8 8.3 6.7 7.6 6.1 9.1 7.9 6.6
17.5 13.0 17.3 16.2 47.1 10.0 16.3 10.6 18.5 17.0 17.1 10.8 10.4 10.0 12.1 10.7 14.5 16.6 18.4 10.1 12.7 14.9 10.5 12.9 15.5 15.5 11.2 11.7 18F n.a. n.a. 6.5 7.5 7.7 7.9 6.9 5.2 9.0 7.7 9.7 5.9 6.0 7.9 8.0 6.0 7.2 5.7 9.6 9.9 8.5 6.7 9.3 7.0 6.0 9.3 9.9
50.0 15A n.a. 1.7 2.5 1.1 0.9 1.9 1.3 3.1 1.8 2 1.6 1.4 0.4 0.9 1.4 1.0 3 0.7 1.8 2.1 1.6 0.9 1.5 2.9 1.4 1.5 1.0 1.3 1.9 1.0 2.5 1.5 1.5 0.8 2.4 2.0 0.5 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.3 1.4 3.0 1.2 1.7 1.0 1.6 1.1 2.5 5.8 3.4 1.6 3.0 3.9 .8 .8 .0
16F n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.2 1.8 1.2 1.4 1.7 1.5 2.3 2.5 2.0 1.8 1.6 0.8 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.2 0.7 1.6 2.4 3.4 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.2 2.6 0.7 2.7 1.2 1.2 0.8 3.4 1.6 0.6 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.3 3.1 PB
17F n.a. n.a. n.a. 2.0 1.8 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.3 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.4 0.8 1.4 1.2 1.4 2.0 0.7 1.4 2.1 2.8 0.6 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.1 2.3 0.7 2.4 1.1 1.1 0.7 3.4 1.4 0.5 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.8 2. 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.9 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.8 3
18F n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.8 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.2 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.3 0.7 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.9 0.7 1.2 1.7 2.2 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.9 2.1 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.7 3.0 1.2 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.6 1.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.0 0.9 1.7 1.7 1.5 2.1 2.4
ROE(%)
16F (1.4) 10.2 24.5 17.4 21.2 15.6 13.6 15.6 17.1 10.7 20.5 17.6 24.3 12.1 13.5 13.3 14.6 13.0 19.9 15.8 15.5 13.6 20.2 21.6 12.9 10.9 14.1 22.6 10.3 10.2 12.1 16.8 13.3 17.0 25.9 11.5 11.7 11.3 11.2 11.9 n.a. n.a. n.a. 5.6 7.9 4.0 7.9 3.6 7.9 6.5 6.7 8.6 5.8 8.1 6.9
D/Y(%)
16F n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.1 2.1 1.5 2.4 5.0 6.6 0.1 2.7 2.6 2.9 1.5 2.1 4.2 3.5 1.3 7.1 4.4 1.0 1.2 2.9 3.3 3.0 3.7 3.2 1.7 4.4 3.0 3.9 3.2 5.2 4.2 1.6 2.6 0.0 5.2 3.3 3.1 2.6 2.2 1.9 0.8 3.3 2.6 2.3 2.5 3.3 4.4 3.0 2.9 3.1 1.7 5.8
EV/EBITDA
Page Page 16F 16.8 16.5 10.8 23.9 10.2 18.6 13.3 14.6 10.4 12.4 11.0
n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 6.8 4.9 7.4 6.2 9.1 5.4 4.6 4.2 1.3 6.6 7.1 7.2 8.2 4.2 6.5 8.8 2.7 7.1 3.4 2.3 2.3 1.6 3.0 8.4 9.7 7.0 6.1 7.4 5.7 4.8 6.3 4.1 7.9 8.4 7.8 8.9 3.5 7.4 6
of of
8
Company Report Geely Auto 吉利汽车 (00175 HK) 9 February 2017
Se Company, Source: the International Guotai Junan Financial Cash at the end ofthe endyear at Cash the year of beginning at Cash the adjustment Other flow of cash Net change financing forCash flow Others paid Dividend Interest paid shares of Issuance notes senior of Issuance bankofLT loan Net change forCash investing flow Others JV and Asso. in Net investments Interest income deposit ofpledged Net change assets of intangible Net change lease ofprepaid land Net change PPE in Net investments operation forCash flow Items operating other of Change taxes paid Income gain/(losses) Exchange of associates of Share results working capital in Changes Interest income cost Finance amortization and Depreciation EBT m) (RMB Dec endYear (RMB) share per Dividend (RMB) Diluted EPS (RMB) EPS Basic Company of the holders Equity Non year Profit the for taxIncome EBT Share net costs, Finance Other income JV and of Asso. of Share results profit Operating expenses Administration expenses Distribution profit Gross Cost sales of Turnover m) (RMB Dec endYear
e -
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Cash Flow Statement Cash Flow Income Statement Income
(17,776)
(1,468) (1,343) (1,772) (1,250) 21,738 2014A 2014A
2,033 1,943 0.025 0.163 0.163 1,431 1,449 1,943 1,055 3,963 7,203 5,478 1,737 1,172 1,814 (320) (2 (212) (749) (497) (960) (494)
(12) (48) (32) (58) (60) (24) 721 648 874 940 74) (0) 58 58 34 81 19 32 0 0
s
(24,668)
(4,534) (1,660) (1,338) (2,176) (1,568) 30,138 2015A 2015A 9,167 7,203 1,944 7,409 3,470 1,143 2,875 0.038 0.257 0.257 2,261 2,289 2,875 1,066 1,727 5,471 (692) (893) (720) (423) (150) (586) (931) (174) (28) (97) (62) (75) 457 103 150
(6) 20 97 32 28
8 2 0 7 .
(41,480)
(2,269) (1,701) (1,340) (1,165) (1,322) (1,165) (3,133) (2,320) 51,550 10,071 11,153 2016F 2016F 4,523 1,524 5,850 0.078 0.527 0.527 4,653 4,685 5,850 1,184 4,618 9,167 1,995 (321) (149) (121) (259) (281) (10) (12) (10) (97) (61) (12) 943 121 (0) (3) 34 97 57 12 32 0 0
(66,156)
(7,361) (2,737) (4,422) (1,661) (1,661) (5,931) (3,733) 15,104 11,153 11,845 16,795 82,951 2017F 2017F 3,930 3,754 1,670 8,341 0.140 0.751 0.751 6,643 6,681 8,341 1,135 7,132 (653) (132) (118) (555) (558) (67) (27) (61) 404 118 132 (0) (4) (4) 22 37 22 4 0 4 0 0
(10,117) (95,785) 121,156
(2,596) (8,257) (5,452) (3,998) (5,3 (2,596) (1,783) 10,400 10,443 13,039 11,662 25,371 14,821 15,104 10,764 13,039 2018F 2018F 0.222 1.176 1.176 1,236 2,527 (291) (939) (996) (855) (113) (145) (160) (61) (69) (57) 145 160 06) (0) (4) 43 57 57 8 0 0 0 0 8
Non liabilities tax Deferred notes Senior Current liabilities Other liabilities borrowing Bank payables Trade Non Others assets tax Deferred payment lease Prepaid land JV and associates Interest in assets Intangible PPE Current assets Others payment lease Prepaid land receivables other andTrade Inventories deposit Pledged Ca m) (RMB Dec endYear Days payable Days Days receivable Inventory turnover Efficiency Cu ratio Quick Cash ratio ratio Interest cover (%) ratio Gearing solvency and Liquidity (%) BPS (%) EPS (%) growth Revenue growth (%) Sales volume Growth ROA (%) ROE (%) (%) Net profit margin (%) EBIT Margin (%) EBITDAR ( profit margin Gross Profitability BPS(RMB) equity and Total liabilities Non Share Net assets
sh rrent ratio rrent - - -
current liabil current asse current controlling interest controlling
holders' equity holders'
ities
ts
%)
R Balance Sheet Balance net cash atios Analysis atios
17,845 17,017 11,977 25,303 16,385 37,280 17,288 17,466 2014A 2014A 1,969 1,820 1,131 4,208 5,861 1,620 7,203 1.964 84.1 13.3 18.2 (47) (24) (24) 149 137 692 691 340 262 178 1.4 1.3 0.4 7.6 3.8 8.5 6.6 9.3 34 52 19 29 47 13
net cash
20,449 20,114 16,945 25,348 14,836 42,292 19,524 19,740 2015A 2015A 2,104 1,929 1,538 1,994 5,260 8,034 1,226 9,167 506.0 2.218
13.0 57.9 38.6 22.1 12.2 13.6 18.2
175 335 275 189 216 1.2 1.2 0.4 5.3 7.5 9.8 24 94 41 37 41 21 0
net cash
33,458 33,057 18,294 41,587 28,037 11,153 5 23,896 24,144 2016F 2016F 2,278 1,929 1,481 1,172 6,961 8,489 2,290 493.1 105.4 2.713 9,881 22.3 71.0 50.1 21.2 11.5 14.4 19.5 350 402 164 291 199 248 1.2 1.2 0.3 7.8 9.0 26 26 38 44 23 0
net cash
57,312 56,830 24,540 12,101 65,566 46,919 15,104 90,106 29,981 30,266
2017F 2017F 2,528 1,929 1,547 9,699 3,427 3.390 25.4 42.5 60.9 42.4 24.4 10.1 12.1 20.2 n.a. 599 482 264 900 Page Page 314 206 285 1.1 1.1 0.3 7.4 8.0 29 29 40 47 24 0
net cash 123,992
7 81,363 80,784 32,962 13,697 16,109 91,030 71,956 14,821 39,384 39,712 2018F 2018F
4.454 2,917 1,929 1,660 1,045 4,127 of of 31.2 56.5 46.1 27.0 29.7 10.8 12.9 20.9 n.a. 308 217 328 988 579 419 1.1 1.1 0.2 8 8.6 29 31 32 43 51 8 .4 .4 0
Company Report Geely Auto 吉利汽车 (00175 HK) 9 February 2017
Se Website:www.gtja.com.hk Tel.:(852) 2509 27/F.,Low Block, GrandMillennium Plaza, 181 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong. 201 © regulati or subjectGuotai law Junan and groupits applicablecompanies any to r to contrary be would use or availability publication, distribution, such where jurisdiction any in Research This Report isnot directed at,or intended distributionfor to orby,use any unpredic andwhere necessary consult their own inherently financial advisers prior to any investment decision. with conditions economic and political future shouldInvestorscontain. uncertainty may so the situation, mutable of assumptions the from derived forecasts and estimates here dataand information the ofcompleteness and accuracy the guarantee not Thoughbest effort has been ensuremade to the accuracy of the information and data containedin this ResearchReport, Guotai becontrary to opinions orinvestment decisions madeby assetthe managementand in reportthis professionalopinionsexpressedcompanies.in otherdealersAnyandexecutivesGuotai Junan of persons,group of Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed o orinvest proprietarily). research reports, includi Limited Kong) (Hong d Report Research This DISCLAIMER (6) (5) (4) (3) (2) (1) DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS Horizon: Time to6 18 months TheBenchmark: Hong KongHang Seng Index Sector Horizon: Time to6 18 months TheBenchmark: Hong KongHang Seng Index Company e Underperform Neutral Outperform Rating Sell Reduce Neutral Accumulate Buy Rating
th Report. There isnoofficer of the issuer mentionedin thisResearch Report associated with Guotai Junana employed not havecompanies group its and Junan Guotai Report. companies group its and Junan Guotai withinprecedingthe 12 months. Guotai Junan and its group companies morethan1% (02886 Limited Company for Except The Analystsand their associates The Analystsand their associates 7 e
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8
Company Report Geely Auto 吉利汽车 (00175 HK) 9 February 2017