statistical society of australia incorporated newsletter
May 2005 Number 111
Registered by Australia Post Publication No. NBH3503 issn 0314-6820
‘Truth, damned truth and statistics’
It’s not every day that we can see the head of Australia’s official statistical agency in action under the scrutiny of Australia’s political press gallery. Dennis confidently faced the blowtorch for the Australian Bureau of Statistics – and the profession – in March. His talk kicks off ABS’s centenary celebrations and gave him an opportunity to air several issues. He argued that ABS has a strong and key role in a democracy by providing impartial, relevant and comprehensive information to inform public debate and decision making. As he said, ‘I am always gratified to see public debate that uses ABS statistics without qualification or question. For the fact is, the public and Australia can have strong faith in their official statistics. The same cannot be said for many other countries where pressure and influence can impact on what is collected, how it is collected and how it is released.’ Later, he said, ‘Because of this trust [in ABS’s data], discussions can focus on what the statistics mean for policy rather than on the integrity of the statistics themselves’. The reliability of ABS statistics was raised in the questions that followed his talk because the Reserve Bank had just raised interest rates for the first time after a long period, and in doing so publicly doubted the ABS statistics that the economy was already slowing. Dennis Dennis Trewin, the Australian Statistician, addresses the National Press Club displayed a keen grasp of the issues, In this issue
Editorial ...... 4 ANZJS Discussion Paper ...... 7 ACSPRI Winter Program ...... 10 Statistics and Schooling ...... 3 Three Doors ...... 8 Conferences ...... 11 President’s Corner ...... 5 Notice – AGM ...... 9 Branch Reports ...... 13 ‘Truth, damned truth and statistics’ reiterated his confidence in the ABS data and explained, in non-technical terms, why he believed his faith was justified – maybe by the time you read this article, Possum Dreaming we will know whether the ABS view of an already slowing economy was correct! Dennis also reacted quickly and In the February and this issue photographs of Dennis Trewin, the decisively to the suggestion that Kerry Australian Statistician, have appeared with him wearing the same Packer had got the question on internet tie. There is a story behind the tie and it goes like this … the design usage inserted into the 2001 Census – of the tie is taken from the painting “Possum Dreaming”. with an emphatic ‘No!’ Another issue canvassed by Dennis The painting Janganpa Mungapunju Jukurrpa (Native Possum was that of privacy. The balance between Dreaming at Mungapunju) and Janganpa Mawurrji Jukurrpa (Native privacy and access to data is a thorny Possum Dreaming at Mawurrji) was commissioned by the Australian issue, with some researchers wishing Bureau of Statistics and hangs in the foyer of its building in for greater access to detailed data, Belconnen, Canberra. even though this has the potential for disclosure about the individual sources It is a collaborative work of 35 artists from the Warlukurlangu of the data. Artists Aboriginal Association from Yuendumu, 290 kilometres north This issue is perennial, as Dennis’s west of Alice Springs, Northern Territory. The principal artist was anecdote about Sir Roland Wilson, who Andrea Nungarrayi Martin. The eleven metre by one metre acrylic was the Commonwealth Statistician for periods in the 1930’s and 1940’s, shows: painting on canvas was completed in 2003 and hangs in the atrium of ‘Apparently the legislation for a Census ABS House, Canberra. of Wealth was hastily drawn up in the days Painting meaning: This painting concerns the creative actions of before World War II. Consequently the the Janganpa or Native Possum ancestors at two major sites west of legislation was badly drafted and mentioned that the Commissioner of Taxation could the artists’ community of Yuendumu in the Tanami Desert. The sets have access to the data – without making it of concentric circles represent the sites and ceremonial camps, the clear that he could access only the collated U-shapes are people sitting, the E-shapes are the footprints of the information. Possum Ancestors, and the wavy lines their paths of travel. Subsequently, during a tax evasion case, the Commissioner of Taxation got the idea that he could win the case by accessing the defendant’s individual Census of Wealth data. According to Wilson last week, sent them down to Sydney and data are collected efficiently and well “He ... came storming into my office one incinerated them’.”’ and are analysed and presented day and demanded this bloke’s wealth card Dennis added, ‘I can assure you that I appropriately. and I said he couldn’t have it. ‘Why?’ ‘Because will be similarly protective of data provided to Although Dennis was too modest to they are confidential and if it was used in a [the ABS], but not use the same tactics’. mention it, ABS also demonstrates its court case it could wreck our reputation.’” Dennis also argued that ABS has an leadership by its strong support for the The Commissioner of Taxation, not content statistical profession. This includes active with this reply, took the matter to Cabinet important role as a statistical leader – sponsorship of professional activities and convinced it to approve his access to both internationally (ABS is proud to such as workshops, conferences (witness, the individual’s data. Then he went back to be one of the top agencies worldwide) the recent ISI in Sydney) and the Wilson to collect the information. and within Australia. As the Australian official statistics world changes and current review of statistics at Australian “Oh, he was on the seventh heaven of universities, as well as its own training moves toward a national system where delight and he came storming along with his and development of statisticians. two Deputies, waved the Cabinet decision the ABS is only one of the providers The full text of Dennis’ televised at me and said ‘You’ve got to hand those of information, the other providers are cards over to me’. ‘I’m sorry ... I can’t’ looking for leadership, a role which the luncheon address at the National Press [said Wilson]. ‘What do you mean, I’ve ABS is keen to provide. Dennis clearly Club on the 9th of March can be found got a Cabinet decision’ [the Commissioner sees a strong and continuing place for the under the March 2005 press releases at exclaimed]. [Wilson replied,] ‘You’re about professional skills that statisticians can www.abs.gov.au. a week too late, I piled them into two trucks contribute to ensuring that comparable Michael Adena
2 SSAI’s Canberra offi ce has moved – The new postal address is: PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 SSAI Newsletter – May 2005 The telephone remains the same (02) 6249 8266 – Our new Fax (02) 6249 6558 Feature Statistics and schooling Some observations prompted by Although the emphasis on exploring Drummond (Qld), Wayne Stevens (Qld), perceptive questions and comments data through graphs was, and is, Michael Evans (Vic), and teachers such from young statisticians at ISI and by the desirable and commendable, there as James Nicholson (Belfast, UK) and release of the RSS report, April, 2005, at was very little understanding of how Maxine Pfannkuch (NZ) who now holds http://www.rss.org.uk to develop concepts of variation and a joint appointment in statistics and Although there have been, and the representational nature of data, education at the University of Auckland. remain, differences between the particularly as students moved into junior Statisticians working closely with teachers situations with statistics in schools in secondary schooling. That is, there was include Kay Lipson (Vic), Brenton Dansie the UK and in Australia, the similarities little scope to take students beyond the (SA), Gary Glonek (SA), John McColl are sufficiently strong since 1990 for the “draw, read, quote and answer questions” (Glasgow, UK), the staff at the RSS Centre key recommendations of the RSS Report stages with clean, official or non-complex for Statistical Education, and statistics on Teaching Statistics Across the 14-19 datasets. Major consequences of this staff at University of Auckland. Tasmania Curriculum to be as pertinent in Australia include: (1) a tendency to regard the has the outstanding expertise of Jane as they are in the UK. The very brief data-in-hand as the “full story”; (2) over- Watson. There needs to be better and comments below are taken from my paper emphasis on conclusive decisions based more widespread knowledge within Coherent And Purposeful Development In on graphs only, without consideration of the statistics community of the entire Statistics Across The Educational Spectrum, data variation; (3) frustration for teachers, schooling spectrum. Proceedings 2004 IASE (International students, parents and statisticians from There are also many statistician Association for Statistical Education) the resulting tedium in junior secondary parents and professionals who contribute Roundtable on Curricular Developments schooling of the repetition in graphing their time and passion in helping to in Statistics Education; from invited talks and data handling without progress in bring statistical literacy, thinking and to SSAI branches in 2003-2005; and from the development of statistical thinking. applications to schools and teachers. Data, Statistical Literacy and the New Benefits of the above bad effects are You may feel that the task is too large Syllabus, Qld May, 2005, conference for that it has provided the impetus for for small contributions to help. Not so grade 1-10 teachers. internationally-acclaimed ground- – every bit of involvement by statisticians Statistics was introduced into Australian breaking research over the past decade contributes to the longterm development school curricula in various forms before by Australians such as Jane Watson and of statistical literacy and thinking. 1990, but it was the National Statement for her co-workers on the development So are we progressing and what are Mathematics (Curriculum Corporation, of statistical thinking across schooling the current main challenges? These 1990) that prompted a strong emphasis ages; and it has prompted the Australian comments are too brief to permit full on statistics up to grade 10 in the form of statisticians involved in senior and discussion, so I will give just a few Chance and Data strands. This emphasis introductory tertiary education to also examples from Queensland where I have on statistics was, and is, because statistics turn their attention to trying to help at the much involved for more than a decade. is regarded as important, and statistical junior secondary and even late primary Because of the system of school-based, literacy a fundamental component levels. centrally-moderated assessment, and my of citizenship. No statistical society or There are no quick fixes or magic wands. membership of a state panel, I have been professional statisticians could disagree Helping to develop quality education in able to see a cross-section of student and with this. chance, data and statistics across schooling teacher work in statistics at the senior The curricula in Chance and Data can only happen through statisticians level. This is still very diverse, but the up to grade 10 levels are similar across working with teachers, educationalists influence of leading teachers and teachers Australia, with the data strands built and educational authorities on a whose tertiary study included at least around collecting, exploring and graphing longterm basis. Participating in syllabus two statistics subjects, is growing. I have data, but with the chance strands still development and writing is important been told of a number of reasons why dominated by very traditional emphases and very demanding in time and patience the situation with statistics at school is on games of chance, counting outcomes (!) but is only the first step. This is because different in NSW to other states, but and other contexts isolated from the the formats of syllabi are controlled by it is of interest to note that NSW is the real, the everyday and all notions of educational administrators. The real state most oriented to single central modelling with probability and data. At differences are made through resources examinations and least oriented to the grades 11, 12 levels, the National and other supports for implementation teacher-centred developments. The work Statement provided little coherent or of syllabi, and working with teachers required for a teacher to turn a good relevant guidance, but in the states in and teacher groups. Working with context and good data into learning and which statisticians have been extensively leading maths teachers emphasises their assessment experiences should not be included in senior syllabus committees talent and commitment to developing under-estimated. The increasing spread and support for teachers, the statistics quality statistical education. A significant and number of teachers with statistics strands at the senior levels are similar in characteristic of leading maths teachers in their tertiary study is of significant theme and emphasis. It is this longterm is their desire and capacity for learning, benefit. For example, all QUT secondary involvement “at the coalface” at the their intense interest in modern statistics education students with maths as one senior school levels that has provided, and mathematics, and their commitment of their designated teaching areas are and continues to provide, the impetus, to translate what they learn into their required to do one, and preferably two, trust and respect that enable statisticians realm of expertise – the classroom. of our first year statistics subjects. The to become involved and influential across Just a few such leading teachers difficulties and challenges of syllabus the educational spectrum. include Anthony Harradine (SA), Rob Continued page 12...
SSAI Newsletter – May 2005 SSAI’s Canberra offi ce has moved – The new postal address is: PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 3 The telephone remains the same (02) 6249 8266 – Our new Fax (02) 6249 6558 Editorial
The deadline for copy to make it into this newsletter coincided with the session of the International Statistical Institute held in Sydney. We hope that everyone who attended found it a great conference. Annual General Meetings have also recently been held in all the branches, and several of the branch reports in this newsletter list the members of the new councils. Each PO Box 5111, Branch should have a newsletter correspondent, to whom you can submit material for Braddon ACT 2612 the newsletter. Of course you can also submit material direct – the email addresses of Phone (02) 6249 8266 the Editors appear in every issue of the newsletter. Keep those contributions and photos Fax (02) 6249 6558 coming! Email: [email protected] Another deadline that has just passed is the one for the draft report of the review of Society Web Page statistics in Australian universities. The newsletter will carry information about this report as soon as it becomes available. In the meantime, keep an eye of the Society’s http://www.statsoc.org.au website, http://www.statsoc.org.au for the most up-to-date information.
Editors
Alice Richardson, School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Canberra, The CensusAtSchool PO Box 1, Belconnen ACT 2616 Email: [email protected]
Michael Adena, Covance Pty Ltd Project PO Box 5125, Braddon, ACT 2612 Email: [email protected] The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) is embarking on an exciting Phone: (02) 6274 9704 and interesting project for Australian school students – the CensusAtSchool project. CensusAtSchool is based on a similar program developed by the Correspondence Royal Statistical Society (RSS) Centre for Statistical Education in the United Kingdom, under the guidance of Professor Neville Davies. In Australia, two Please direct all editorial correspondence previous projects that focused on students (one run by the Noel Baker Centre to Alice Richardson. for School Mathematics in South Australia and one by the Office for Economic and Statistical Research in Queensland) are collaborating with the ABS on the Disclaimer CensusAtSchool project. The views of contributors to this The CensusAtSchool project aims to satisfy two important needs: to increase Newsletter should not be attributed to statistical literacy; and to promote the 2006 Census in Australian schools. the Statistical Society of Australia, Inc. Statistical literacy is an essential life skill for the information age we live in today (i.e. the ability to understand, interpret and evaluate statistical Subscriptions information and make sensible, informed decisions). Also, traditionally the The Newsletter of the Statistical Society ABS has had a program with schools as part of the lead up to each Population of Australia is supplied free to all Census. These programs have a number of objectives, including improving members of the society. Any others awareness of the Census, explaining why Australia holds a Census every wishing to subscribe to the Newsletter five years, and providing details on how a Census is run. The next Australian may do so at an annual cost of A$25.00 Population Census will be in August 2006. for an issue of four numbers. CensusAtSchool provides a unique e-learning opportunity for Australian school students to investigate questions of interest to them, through the Advertising analysis of data about themselves. It also provides the opportunity for Advertising will be carried in the Australian teachers to use this technology along with their students. Through Newsletter on any matters which the a free web site, students can participate by completing an online questionnaire Editors feel are of interest to the members that focuses on them and their interests. Students will then have the ability of the Society. For details of advertising to take samples of raw data from the population of responses received rates, etc. contact the Editors at the above Australia wide. The web site will also have a library of census and statistics addresses. related information for classroom use. In addition, classroom activities will be provided with students from Years 5 through to 10 in mind. They will focus on Printer Mathematics, as well as studies of Society and the Environment. National Capital Printing The ABS has worked closely with all state/territory education intermediaries 22 Pirie Street, Fyshwick ACT 2609 in the development of the CensusAtSchool project. The project is currently in its advance development stage, with a web site ready for release testing in July 2005. Schools will be able to register to participate in CensusAtSchool from DEADLINE FOR October 2005 onwards. NEXT ISSUE: More information about CensusAtSchool can be obtained by contacting 10 JULY 2005 Ms Soo Kong, National Education Services Unit, on 1800 623 273 or 03-9615 7360, or by emailing [email protected].
4 SSAI’s Canberra offi ce has moved – The new postal address is: PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 SSAI Newsletter – May 2005 The telephone remains the same (02) 6249 8266 – Our new Fax (02) 6249 6558 President’s Corner
SSAI Review of Statistics ISI 2005 During February the Review Team of Professors Adrian Smith, The 55th session of the David Vere-Jones and Ian James visited each Branch of SSAI International Statistical and heard submissions and contributions from a broad cross- Institute (ISI) was held section of the profession and employers of people with statistical recently in Sydney and SSAI expertise. As this newsletter goes to press we are expecting the has participated in some first draft of the team’s report. In the first instance this report of the organization for this will go to the managing team and then I expect that it will be conference as well as setting circulated for comment from members. Thank you to every up a booth amongst the one who made submissions and found time to talk to the team. exhibitors. Two excellent Special thanks go to the people in each Branch who organised sessions that I attended were the scheduling of the sessions. about careers in statistics and the future for statistical societies. Many comments were made about the high quality of many of Direct Election of Executive Officers the talks presented. At the SSAI AGM in July, Ken Russell moved that we consider The conference was also part of the celebrations to mark the the direct election of Executive officers by all SSAI members centenary of the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Congratulations instead of the current approach where a nominating committee, go the Dennis Trewin and everyone at ABS for reaching this milestone with such a high level of credibility with the Australian made up of the Executive plus Branch presidents, puts forward public, census users and amongst the statistical profession. nominations to Central Council. Doug Shaw put together a paper on the subject and this was published in the previous ANZJS Team Changes issue of this Newsletter. Comments, suggestions and thoughts Discussions are taking place with the relevant people about can still be made through the Branches or via any member of the introducing an electronic form of the ANZJS in addition to the Executive. printed version and the PDF version currently available. It is Science Meets Parliament 2005 likely that this will come on stream at the beginning of 2006 but there are other changes that affect the Journal that are For some years now, FASTS (Federation of Australian happening in the interim. Firstly, Chris Lloyd is stepping down Scientific and Technological Societies) has been holding a as Managing Editor after a replacement has been found. Chris ‘Science Meets Parliament’ session involving scientists and has done an excellent job as Editor over about four years and many parliamentarians. This year was the 6th in the series after we thank him for his efforts. A replacement will hopefully be missing 2004 because of election timing. About 250 scientists appointed by Central Council in July and nominations will be and over 50 politicians participated this year on the day when sought by the SSAI Nominating Committee that is made up members of the Danish Royal Family were visiting Parliament of the Branch Presidents plus members of the Executive. Ray House. This occasion highlighted the contrast between the Watson is also standing down as Technical Editor after earning public role of politicians and the daily workings to which widespread respect for over eight years of work in this role. the scientists contributed for the day. Groups of two or three Thank you Ray for your excellent contribution over such an scientists were allocated to at least two different politicians and extended time. Ken Russell has agreed to take on the role. sessions took place in between all of the other activities that each Neville Bartlett parliamentarian was involved with. The sessions in which I Email: [email protected] participated involved Senator Gavin Marshall from Victoria and the Honorable Sophie Panopolous, the Liberal Party Member for Indi in North Eastern Victoria (my electorate). These sessions lasted about half an hour and involved each person talking about what they did and the issues involved. At a dinner on the previous evening, I was fortunate to have discussions with Senator Lyn Allison (the Australian Democrats’ leader) and the Honorable Dick Adams (the ALP member for Lyons in Tasmania). It is quite refreshing to experience first hand just how well informed politicians are about scientific issues and the rich variety of backgrounds that they bring. I highly commend the Apology experience to anyone who wishes to participate in future ‘Science Meets Parliament’ sessions. The time and effort involved was The editors apologise that the Queensland Branch very worthwhile because of the opportunity to talk directly to a Report by Ross Darnell in the February issue was incorrectly attributed to Brenton Clarke. few parliamentarians as well as other scientists.
SSAI Newsletter – May 2005 SSAI’s Canberra offi ce has moved – The new postal address is: PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 5 The telephone remains the same (02) 6249 8266 – Our new Fax (02) 6249 6558 Hosted By Scientific Program
The Statistical Society of Australia (SSAI) and The New A stimulating and cutting edge Scientific Program is being Zealand Statistical Association (NZSA). developed to cover a wide range of topics relevant to all statisticians. The program will provide practical knowledge Contact Details and insights from prominent international and Australasian ASC/NZSA 2006 Conference Managers speakers and will address the latest developments in GPO Box 128, Sydney NSW 2001 statistical research, education and practice. Phone: +61 2 9265 0700 Fax: +61 2 9267 5443 Email: [email protected] Workshops Expression of Interest Technical workshops that are of particular interest to practitioners will be included in the Conference Program. If you are interested in attending the Conference, The Scientific Program Committee is seeking potential please register your interest workshop presenters. If you are interested in contributing on-line www.statsnz2006.com please contact David Scott at [email protected].
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6 SSAI’s Canberra offi ce has moved – The new postal address is: PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 SSAI Newsletter – May 2005 The telephone remains the same (02) 6249 8266 – Our new Fax (02) 6249 6558 ANZJS Discussion Paper – May 2005
The purpose of this note is to raise several options for ANZJS so that these can be discussed by members of NZSA and SSAI before any decisions are taken at Society meetings that will take place early in July.
Background In a typical year ANZJS is made of 4 issues of 128 pages but during 2004 it was agreed by NZSA and SSAI to use financial reserves to reduce a substantial backlog of papers. It was felt that such a situation was undesirable and that action needed to be taken. Consequently, three issues during 2004 were extended to 192 pages. At A$75 per page for 3 x 64 pages this comes to a total of A$14,400 that is shared between the two societies. We now find ourselves in the position Option A not believe that the current submissions where we still have a substantial backlog Do nothing about bumper issues but warrant this step. of accepted papers (35 papers that equate ask the editorial panel to increase the to about 3 issues) and we are debating standard so that the problem will steadily Option D what, if anything, we should do about dissolve (albeit fairly slowly) over the One way to reduce the demand on it. An optimal backlog would be 1.5 to next year or so. financial reserves is to introduce page 2 issues. charges. Many Journals do this nowadays The options below are indicative of the Option B and the idea has some advantages. The broad range of options that are possible Run some more bumper issues of 192 funds raised can be used to pay for and members of both societies are invited pages to reduce the backlog and once bumper issues in the short term and lessen to give this matter some thought and again fund this from the financial reserves the financial load on Society members in the longer term. Variations include to contribute suggestions about which of both Societies. The costs would be offering authors so many free pages options are considered to be desirable similar to those quoted above for 2004. before page charges apply and to allow or undesirable. Many variants and Do members feel that this is a suitable use of financial reserves. members of the Societies advantages over combinations are also possible and one non-members. should not consider the list below to be Option C the only ones available. Option E Increase the size of the ANZJS on a Chris Lloyd reports that there has not regular basis and have Blackwell revise Extend Option D to the extreme and been a noticeable increase in standard of the quoted cost. This would be cheaper make page charges the main source papers that are currently being submitted than running ad hoc bumper issues of funding for the production and so that the problem does not appear to but would need a consistently higher distribution of the Journal. This option be caused by an consistent increase in rate of acceptance of papers of suitable has been included after hearing about the volume of high quality submissions. quality. The Editor reports that he does PLOS (Public Library of Science) Journals that are fully funded via page charges but published with completely open access. Year Papers Submitted Papers Accepted The PLOS has several electronic-only Journals available (see http://www.plos. org/ for more details). 2002 119 40 Comments 2003 141 37 Any thoughts, suggestions or concerns that you have can be sent to the ANZJS 2004 114 25 Editors, anyone on the NZSA or SSAI Executives or Branch Representatives. 2005 119 (projected) 20 ? Neville Bartlett and Murray Jorgensen SSAI and NZSA Presidents
SSAI Newsletter – May 2005 SSAI’s Canberra offi ce has moved – The new postal address is: PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 7 The telephone remains the same (02) 6249 8266 – Our new Fax (02) 6249 6558 Three Doors
Three Doors with Borek Puza But q is actually a random variable No. 3 when presented with a choice, and (Edition 2) with prior f(q) = 1/2, q = 0, 1/2 because No. 3 was in fact opened. Without Welcome to the second edition of (corresponding to your host being M1 thinking it through one may be tempted Three Doors, a regular feature of the SSAI and M2, respectively). Therefore (1) must to say that the required probability is the be rewritten as P(AH|q) = (1 + q)/9, Newsletter which focusses on interesting straight average (1)(1/2) + (2/3)(1/2) = and so the unconditional probability of questions, paradoxes, conundrums, etc. 5/6. However, this is the unconditional known events is in fact in the field of probability and statistics. expectation E(p) rather than the required In the last edition we described The P(AH) = P(q = 0)P(AH|q = 0) + P(q = conditional expectation E(p|AH) at (3). Monty Hall Three Doors Problem and 1/2)P(AH|q = 1/2) Failure to condition on AH here amounts posed an extension of it called The Two = (1/2)(1 + 0)/9 + (1/2)(1 + (1/2))/9 = to not realizing that the known events Monties Puzzle. Unfortunately, none of (1/2)(1/9) + (1/2)(3/18) = 5/36. the solutions proffered (before 22 March) in the game tell us something about the Hence by Bayes’ rule the posterior were correct and so no prize will be host’s strategy. probability of M1 being your host is awarded this time. We now repeat the A similar error occurs in Morgan et al. P(q = 0|AH) = P(q = 0)P(AH|q = 0) / puzzle, solve it, and discuss a commonly (1991; page 286). There it is stated that made error. The next puzzle will then be P(AH) = (1/2)(1/9) / (5/36) = 2/5. “the noninformative prior” (presumably presented. (2) f(q) = 1, 0 < q < 1) makes the required Now, if q = 0 then p = 1, and if q = 1/2 probability equal to the integral of 1/(1 The Two Monties Puzzle then p = 2/3 (by the formula p = 1/(1 + + q) from 0 to 1, which is 0.693. However, Suppose you’re on a game show and given q), which was derived in the Appendix a choice of three doors. Behind one is a car; of the last edition). Hence the posterior this is wrong, and it is shown in Puza et behind the others are goats. You pick door No. probabilities of p being 1 and 2/3 are al. (2005) that the correct probability is 1, and the host, who knows what’s behind 2/5 and 3/5, respectively. It follows that 2/3. This error in Morgan et al. poignantly them, opens No. 3, which has a goat. He the posterior probability of the car being reinforces the sentiment in the abstract of then asks if you want to pick No. 2. Find the behind door No. 2 is that article (page 284), where the authors probability that the car is behind No. 2 under P(2|AH) = E{P(2|AH,q)|AH} = E(p|AH) write: “The solution and failed attempts the following assumptions: = (1)(2/5) + (2/3)(3/5) = 4/5. at solution [of The Monty Hall Three (a) the car was hidden randomly; (b) you (3) Doors Problem] are rich in their lessons in were definitely going to pick a door randomly; thinking about conditional probability.” (c) the host was definitely going to open a Illustration via a mental goat door (other than the door picked by you) experiment The Sample Size Puzzle and offer the option to switch; (d) the host To see this result another way, consider is one of two (called M1 and M2) who take Consider a random sample of n values from 18000 hypothetical games on subsequent turns at staging the show on alternate nights; the normal distribution with mean k and days. Exactly 9000 of these games will (e) whenever presented with a choice of two variance 1. Suppose that n had previously be hosted by M1 and 9000 by M2. About doors to open, M1 opens the door with the been obtained by flipping a coin and taking n 3000 of the 9000 games hosted by M2 will lowest number, and M2 decides by flipping a have the car behind No. 1; and of these as 1 if tails came up and as 2 if heads came up. coin; and (f) you randomly chose a night on 3000, about 1000 will have the player Also suppose that k is assigned an improper which to play and have no extra information choose No. 1. Then, in about 500 of these flat prior distribution over the whole real line, regarding the host’s identity. 1000 games the host will open No. 2, and independently of n. We now observe that in the other 500-odd the host will open Solution to The Two Monties the total of the n values is 1.000. Find the No. 3. Puzzle probability that n = 1. By considering a tree diagram with As in the last edition, let “1” and “2” For your chance to win a fabulous all such branches, we find that the total denote the car being behind doors No. 1 mystery prize, send your solution (sooner number of games wherein the player and 2, respectively; let A be the event that rather than later) to
8 SSAI’s Canberra offi ce has moved – The new postal address is: PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 SSAI Newsletter – May 2005 The telephone remains the same (02) 6249 8266 – Our new Fax (02) 6249 6558 NOTICE The Annual General Meetings of The Statistical Society Of Australia Inc and The Australian Statistical Publishing Association Inc. will be held on Tuesday 5 July 2005 at 5.30pm at University House, Australian National University, Canberra
SSAI Annual General ASPAI Annual General Meeting — Agenda Meeting — Agenda
1. Apologies and Proxies 1. Apologies and Proxies Proxies must be given in writing as per form inserted Proxies must be given in writing as per form inserted in the May 2005 issue of SSAI Newsletter. Proxy with May 2005 issue of SSAI Newsletter. Proxy forms forms must be received by the SSAI Executive Officer must be received by the SSAI Executive Officer for for passing to the Secretary no later than 24 hours passing to the Secretary no later than 24 hours before before the time of the meeting. the time of the meeting. 2. Confirmation of the Minutes – Minutes of the meetings 2. Confirmation of the minutes – Minutes of the meetings as circulated as circulated 3. Matters arising 3. Matters arising 4. Reports 4. Presentation of the Annual Report by the Editor of the 4.1 President Australian and New Zealand Journal of Statistics 4.2 Treasurer 5. Presentation of the Annual Report by the Newsletter Editors 4.3 Branches 6. Treasurer’s Report 4.4 Sections 7. Appointment of signatories 5. Accreditation 7. Other business 5.1 Report from Accreditation Committee 8. Time and place of next meeting. 6. Conferences 6.1 ASC 2004/IBC2004 and ISI2005 6.2 ASC 2006 (joint with NZSA, in Auckland) 6.3 ASC 2008 7. Election of Section Chairs Dinner Notice Nominations for Section Chairs should be received at the SSAI office no later than 28 June 2005. Following the Annual General Meetings the Canberra Nomination Forms have been inserted in each copy Branch will host a presentation by Professor Raymond of the May issue of SSAI Newsletter. All nominations J Carroll of Texas A&M University on Semiparametric methods for gene-environment case-control studies require a seconder and a statement from the nominee when gene and environment are independent in that she or he is prepared to stand. population. An abstract provided by Professor Carroll 8. Appointment of signatories appears on page 11. 10. Other business A buffet dinner will follow Professor Carroll’s 11. Time and place of next meeting. presentation. A booking and payment slip for the dinner is included on the insert to this Newsletter with the proxy and Section Chair nomination forms.
SSAI Newsletter – May 2005 SSAI’s Canberra offi ce has moved – The new postal address is: PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 9 The telephone remains the same (02) 6249 8266 – Our new Fax (02) 6249 6558 Asymptotics and Nonparametrics Workshop
The School of Mathematics and Statistics at the University of Sydney held a two day workshop in March to mark the 65th birthday of Professor John Robinson who has been on staff at the university since 1964. The meeting was generously supported by the Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute. 30 people participated in the meeting including a number of John’s current and former students. The speakers included Brenton Clarke, Peter Hall, Bingyi Jing, Andrzej Kozek, Spiro Penev, Marc Raimondo, Elvezio Ronchetti, Bob Staudte, Steve Stern, Michael Stewart, Qiying Wang, Alan Welsh, and Wang Zhou. John gave the final paper of the workshop. His talk was entitled Empirical saddlepoint approximations in samples from a finite population. John made it clear that although he had reached 65 he was having too much fun teaching and doing research to consider retirement. Neville Weber
ACSPRI SHORT COURSES IN RESEARCH METHODS 2005 ACSPRI WINTER PROGRAM UNIVERSITY OF QUEENSLAND, 27 JUNE - 1 JULY 2005
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10 SSAI’s Canberra offi ce has moved – The new postal address is: PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 SSAI Newsletter – May 2005 The telephone remains the same (02) 6249 8266 – Our new Fax (02) 6249 6558 Presentation by Society Secretaries Professor Raymond J. Carroll Central Council President: Dr N Bartlett Secretary: Dr D Shaw Email: [email protected] Tuesday 5 July 2005, University House, Canberra, following the SSAI and ASPAI Annual General Meetings, commencing at 5.30 pm. New South Wales President: Mr Alun Pope Semiparametric methods for gene-environment case-control studies when Secretary: Dr Neville Weber gene and environment are independent in the population. Email: [email protected] Canberra Abstract President: Dr Brent Henderson Secretary: Dr Ray Lindsay I will consider case-control studies of gene and environment interactions using Email: [email protected] prospective logistic regression models. After a brief tour of the relevant facts concerning Victoria retrospective studies, I will consider a particular case that arises often in case-control President: Dr Brian Phillips studies when one covariate is a genotype/haplotype, and the other convariates are Secretary: Dr Ann Maharaj environmental variables. In many such cases it is reasonable to assume that genotype Email: [email protected]. and environment are independent in the population, possibly conditional on covariates edu.au to account for population stratification. In such as case, I will develop a simple, easily South Australia computed semiparametric likelihood approach for this problem, showing that it President: Ms Margaret Swincer leads to much more efficient estimates of gene-environment interaction parameters Secretary: Ms Janine Jones Email: [email protected] and gene-main effect parameters than the standard approach. In addition, if the probability of disease is known in the population, we show additional efficiency gains Western Australia President: Dr Aloke Phatak for estimating gene-environment interactions, in contrast to the standard approach in Secretary: Ms Jodie Thompson case-control studies. Multiple extensions are discussed, including to missing genotype Email: [email protected] data, haplotype data, and family-based studies. Application to an important data set is Queensland discussed as a mean of illustrating some of the subtleties of the proposed approach. President: Professor John Eccleston Raymond J. Carroll Secretary: Ms Helen Johnson Email: [email protected] Distinguished Professor Department of Statistics 3143 TAMU Section Chairs Texas A&M University Statistics in the Medical Sciences College Station TX 77843-3143 Mr Peter Howley http://stat.tamu.edu/~carroll [email protected] [email protected] Statistics in the Biological Sciences Dr Simon Barry Email: [email protected] Conferences Survey and Management Dr Robert Clark Recent Advances in Biometrics, Bioinformatics and Markov Chain Monte Carlo Email: [email protected] 7-8 July 2005, Sydney Statistical Education [email protected] Dr Michael Martin [email protected] 20th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling 10-15 July 2005, Sydney Statistical Computing Associate Professor Kuldeep Kumar [email protected] Email: [email protected] Stochastic Modelling of Complex Systems (SMOCS-05) Industrial Statistics 10-16 July 2005 Daydream Island, Queensland Dr Aloke Phatak www.conferences.unimelb.edu.au/smocs05 Email: [email protected] NZSA Conference, 4-6 July 2005, Dunedin, New Zealand Young Statisticians http://www.maths.otago.ac.nz/nzsa2005/home.php Ms Anna Munday Email: [email protected] 2005 Joint Statistical meetings, 7-11 August 2005, Minneapolis, USA Bayesian http://www.amstat.org/meetings/jsm/2005 Professor Kerrie Mengersen Mathematics/Statistics in Finance, 8-12 August 2005, Kruger National Park, Email: [email protected] South Africa Further contact details for http://www.mif.up.ac.za Society Secretaries and ISI2007, Lisbon, Portugal Section Chairs can be obtained http://www.ine.pt by contacting the Society on (02) 6249 8266
SSAI Newsletter – May 2005 SSAI’s Canberra offi ce has moved – The new postal address is: PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 11 The telephone remains the same (02) 6249 8266 – Our new Fax (02) 6249 6558 Feature
Continued from page 3... The ABS’s National production are increasing with the tendency of educational authorities to now cover grades 1-12 with a single Education Services Unit committee, but an example of the benefits of my longterm involvement and gaining In 1990 the Australian Bureau ABS datasets to explore statistical trust and respect of teachers is the just- of Statistics (ABS) established the techniques. Other resources use completed resource paper About Data National Education Services Unit statistics to focus on issues such as for grades 1-10 in Queensland. The large (NESU). The role of the Unit has water, Indigenous Australians and challenge of Chance is mentioned above. evolved over time to the current aim Australian communities. These The other major challenge finds tertiary of encouraging the development of resources include a range of Excel teachers of introductory statistics or statistical literacy in students and datasets, specifically selected by mathematics across disciplines “in the teachers, and promoting access, teachers for the classroom, reference same boat” as teachers of mathematics understanding and greater use of material on statistical concepts and and statistics in senior secondary ABS statistics in the school sector. research techniques, and links to free schooling: the lack of understanding or Statistical literacy is the ability to data on the ABS web site. There are commitment in middle schooling to the understand, interpret and evaluate also special on-line school publications quantitative foundations necessary for statistical information, and to such as ‘Statistics – A Powerful Edge’ progress in senior school and tertiary appreciate its value in helping us and ‘Measuring Australia’s Economy’, study. interpret the world around us and to as well as flagship publications like ‘Australian Social Trends’, ‘Measures And so we come to the relationships make sensible, informed decisions in of Australia’s Progress’ and the ‘Year between mathematics and statistics, a the workplace, the community, or as Book Australia’ that are relevant to topic that still seems to produce more individuals. Statistical understanding the curriculum. Lesson plans built hot air than genuine illumination. There is becoming more important in around these publications are also appears to have been little research on everyday life as we are continually provided to assist teachers to make the relationship, but emerging research and increasingly faced with data we use of ABS data in the classroom and is providing evidence of the strong need to understand. It is also critical enhance learning. association between statistical reasoning to government decision-making, and and mathematical capabilities and business management and industrial Teacher conferences and student background. Statistics, like physics activities, which are increasingly seminars and expos are the focus and engineering, is not a branch of dependent on the transformation of of NESU’s promotional activities. mathematics, but would not exist without masses of data into timely, actionable The NESU exhibits and gives talks mathematical thinking and foundations. and trustworthy information. School to raise awareness of the education Important practical points include: (i) education should prepare students to resources available on the web site. like mathematical thinking, statistical make high quality decisions based on The NESU also publishes articles in thinking requires coherent, steadily sound evidence in all aspects of their the education media and assists text progressive development in which its lives, and statistical literacy is critical book publishers to include up-to- power of transferability is manifest; (ii) as to this. date and relevant ABS data in their evidenced in English A levels and recent The ABS, through the NESU, publications. Scottish subjects, emphasis on formal endeavours to ensure that school The 2001 census provided an statistical procedures in schooling can be children develop a sufficient opportunity to distribute ‘A Tale of detrimental to development. The term understanding and appreciation Two Worlds’, an interactive CD-ROM “mathematics teachers” has meaning of how data can be acquired and where students explore two worlds, only in secondary schooling, and mostly used. It also aims to evoke in school one with data and one without. at senior level, and it is these teachers students a sufficient interest and This highly successful and engaging who are most interested in statistics as enthusiasm for statistics that they product was designed especially a discipline in itself that can be applied consider pursuing tertiary studies in for schools. To promote the 2006 across all applications and contexts. It this field. census and support statistical is of interest that UK teachers of other The NESU provides a variety of education in Australian schools, the disciplines were against the proposal that resources free through the ABS web ABS is extending the internationally they should be given the responsibility site to support teachers in introducing successful CensusAtSchool project and lose time from their subjects to statistics into the classroom. From to Australian teachers and students. include elements of statistics. the ABS web site, teachers can use CensusAtSchool is an engaging e- So what were the two questions from the STATPAK catalogue to select ABS learning opportunity for young young statisticians that prompted this publications which are relevant to Australians enabling them to work brief article? Why have statisticians declared Australian curricula and offered to with real data about themselves. open season on mathematics teachers – they’re schools at a 30% discount. There is More information about ABS’s our best allies. And Why are statisticians also a range of curriculum related initiatives to help students can be behaving like sheep in wanting to do what student activities which have proved obtained by contacting Ms Soo Kong, every discipline wants – introduce their own very popular that can be integrated National Education Services Unit, on subject at senior level. It doesn’t do any good into the classroom in a range of ways. 1800 623 273 or 03-9615 7360, or by and just messes things up. The maths activities use a range of emailing [email protected] Helen Macgillivray
12 SSAI’s Canberra offi ce has moved – The new postal address is: PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 SSAI Newsletter – May 2005 The telephone remains the same (02) 6249 8266 – Our new Fax (02) 6249 6558 Branch Reports
SOUTH AUSTRALIA Ryan’s research interests lie in the area The survey was conducted in 2004 of nonparametric statistics and his talk across 63 locations in Australia which focused on a fully nonparametric test for were selected using a clustered sampling Spatial Statistics in Petroleum one-way layouts. approach. A random sample of students Reservoir Evaluation The talk began with a review of the was then selected from these locations Professor Henning Omre is from the one-way layout. When interest lies in for face-to-face interviews. It was Norwegian University of Science and testing for a difference in location between important to consider cultural issues Technology and is currently visiting groups, the F-test or the Kruskal-Wallis when conducting the survey and thus, the University of Adelaide. During the test may be used, provided the shape Indigenous Australians were involved October 2004 meeting of the SA branch, of the distribution is assumed to be the at each stage. In particular, Indigenous he introduced the audience to the role of same for each group. A problem arises protocol managers were used in each spatial statistics in petroleum reservoir when the location may be the same for location and their role included contacting evaluation. each group but the spread may differ students and organising an interpreter when necessary. Henning began the talk by introducing between groups or when the shape of some key ideas in spatial statistics. the distributions differ. These situations A major problem encountered during Spatial statistics may be thought of as require a different test which can detect the survey was the low response rate. multivariate statistics in very high these differences, if they are present. In The quality of contact information for dimensions. There are three types of this case, if observations from a single the randomly selected students was general random fields which may be group are drawn from an unspecified poor and many could not be contacted. used to represent spatial phenomena. distribution, the null hypothesis of Females, older people and those who Continuous random fields may be used interest is that the distribution is the same had completed their training at the time to model geological horizons for example. for each group and the alternative is of the interview were over-represented Objects in space, such as stars in the sky, that at least one distribution is different. in the survey data. Since response bias may be modelled by an event random This can be used to test for differences in was likely to be a major problem, the data field. Mosaic random fields are useful spread and shape, as well as differences were weighted during the final analysis for modelling phenomena such as land in location. stage. use. Spatial statistics is challenging due In order to test the null hypothesis that The high level of interest in this topic to symmetries which must be modelled. all distributions are the same, r sample was reflected by the many questions Another challenge is that spatial quantiles may first be calculated. In each asked at the end of the talk. A full report observations are never independently and group, the number of observations below on the findings of this survey will be identically distributed, as observations the first quantile, between the first and available in July 2005. will always be correlated. This challenge second quantile etc. can be determined. Lisa Yelland is also relevant in time series analysis. In A contingency table may then be formed the spatial setting however, observations and one option is to use a chi-squared have no order, unlike in time series test. An alternative is to assume that WESTERN analysis where observations have a clear among the k different groups there order in time. are G different distributions. Since G AUSTRALIA Following the discovery of oil in is unknown, this is a model selection Norway several decades ago, there problem and the Bayesian Information March 2005 Criterion (BIC) may be used to choose has been much need for statisticians to The WA Branch kicked off the New Year between competing models. perform spatial statistical analysis of with its first meeting of the year in March petroleum reservoirs. The data comes Ryan used two examples to illustrate 2005. The speaker was Jo-Anne Morgan, form logs in wells, seismic surveys how the different available tests an actuary from PricewaterhouseCoopers and observed production history. The compared. He concluded with some (PwC). A mathematics graduate of problem is then to use this data and suggestions for future research in the area, UWA, Jo-Anne is currently an Associate work backwards to obtain the spatial including the problem of determining an Director in the Retirement Incomes and phenomenon of interest which involves optimal number of quantiles to consider Asset Consulting Division of PwC, and Bayesian inversion. Computational and extending the test for use in the two- she is also an Adjunct Associate Professor power is of key importance in this setting, way layout case. at Curtin University and lectures since many iterations are involved in * * * in the actuarial science program. Her spatial analysis and the recent increase Sandra Pattison from the National talk, entitled Today’s Actuaries, aimed to in computational power has led to much Centre for Vocational Education Research demystify just what it is that modern work being done in the field of spatial (NCVER) spoke at the March meeting actuaries do. statistics in general. of the SA branch about a new survey Most of us still have an image of for Indigenous Australians undertaking actuaries poring over life insurance tables, A fully nonparametric test for Vocational Education and Training. but Jo-Anne’s talk dispelled that outdated one-way layouts The aim of the survey was to measure view. Indeed, actuaries have training The final speaker for 2004 was Dr the benefits of training for Indigenous and skills that are very similar to those Ryan Elmore. After completing his PhD Australians and determine what that statisticians require, for example, in Statistics at the Pennsylvania State encourages them to begin and continue technical training in statistics and risk University in 2003, he came to Australia their training. The focus of the talk was analysis, knowledge about industry and to work as an ARC Research Associate on the challenges in developing and business, and the ability to communicate at the Australian National University. running this survey. technical issues effectively to non-
SSAI Newsletter – May 2005 SSAI’s Canberra offi ce has moved – The new postal address is: PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 13 The telephone remains the same (02) 6249 8266 – Our new Fax (02) 6249 6558 Branch Reports Continued specialist audiences. These days, they of CSIRO Mathematical and Information such as incorporating prior knowledge are as likely to be assisting enterprises Sciences. Hyperspectral imaging is an and satisfying additional constraints with financial, banking, and investment extension of conventional spectroscopy such as positivity of the estimated pure decisions as they are to be computing in which infrared spectra are measured components. mortality tables, and they have also on a regular grid over a “scene”. The Some of the members had additional branched out into non-traditional areas scene could be a large geographical area, ideas on how some of the problems such as assessing the impacts of climate which would be scanned by an airborne discussed above could be overcome, changes and energy shortages. For hyperspectral instrument, or it could be a and after the meeting, the discussion example, the list of actuarial services that section of a pharmaceutical tablet or piece continued at Terraza in Nedlands. PwC offers is too long to list here, but it of organ tissue, which might be imaged includes accident compensation, business in a hyperspectral microscope. In all of Aloke Phatak planning and systems benchmarking, risk these examples, the objective of unmixing Young Statisticians Workshop management, company valuation, data the hyperspectral image is the same: to mining, dynamic financial modelling, determine which pure components are The 2005 Western Australian Young retirement incomes and asset consulting, present, and in what proportion they Statisticians Workshop will be held on and a host of others. are present in each pixel. In the case Wednesday, 13th July 2005 at Tompkins Jo-Anne described in detail some of of an image of a pain-killing tablet, for Park, Alfred Cove, WA. the complex dynamic financial models example, unmixing allows us to map the The workshop is a full-day program that are used to assist businesses with spatial distribution of its ingredients over aided at “Young Statisticians” their forward planning. For the most the surface of the tablet. – recent graduates, graduate students, part, these models are proprietary, and As hyperspectral imaging technology undergraduates contemplating a career companies using them aim to answer is developed and refined, it is being used in statistics and those who are new to a questions such as: in large and diverse range of applications, career in statistics. from airborne exploration to quality • What could our financial position, The day will involve several guest control of pharmaceutical products to earnings performance or cash flows speakers from varying backgrounds detection of the spectral signature of be in the next 2–5 years? who will be sharing their experiences as cancerous cells. In the manufacture of statisticians. The workshop is aimed at • What could affect them, and by how pharmaceutical tablets, for example, it is developing, maintaining and improving much? essential that all ingredients, especially contact and support amongst young • Are there clusters of risks that we are the active pharmaceutical ingredient, statisticians. not recognizing? be evenly dispersed throughout the Inquiries regarding the workshop • Are there effective means of managing tablet. The problem of mapping the can be directed to: April Rutkay, email: the risks? spatial distribution of the ingredients over a planar surface of a tablet – or [email protected] phone: (08) 9386 3304. As Jo-Anne pointed out, actuaries chemical mapping – can be solved have always had a very strong sense using hyperspectral imaging, and Aloke of their profession, and entry is highly showed an example of the unmixing of NEW SOUTH WALES regulated. The profession dates back an image of a small section of a pain- to at least 1693 when the astronomer The Annual General Meeting of the killing tablet. Edmund Halley used a mortality table NSW Branch was held on 17 March, 2005 to work out how much money someone The model underlying spectral in the Arcade Room at the University of of a given age should pay to purchase a unmixing is straightforward: we assume NSW. The incoming council for 2005 is: life-annuity. In Australia, the Actuarial that in each pixel the observed spectrum President: Alun Pope Society of New South Wales was formed is a linear combination of the spectra of Immediate Past President: John Rayner in 1897, an event which led many years the pure components present in the scene Treasurer: Shelton Peiris later to the formation of the Actuarial plus some noise. The weights are given by Secretary: Neville Weber Society of Australasia (now The Institute the proportions of the pure components Membership Secretary: Jos Beunen present in that pixel. Because the weights of Actuaries of Australia). Continuing councilors: Caro Badcock, are non-negative and sum to one, this Frankie Chan, Petra Graham, Chris After Jo-Anne’s talk many of us leads naturally to a convex geometry Howden, Fred Osman, Scott Sisson. The wondered if the history of the actuarial model, and hence unmixing amounts to profession could provide some useful fitting an M–dimensional simplex in a President thanked retiring councilor lessons for statisticians. After all, though subspace of dimensionality M – 1. As Ian Nivison-Smith for his contributions many people with similar training could Aloke discussed, however, this is often during his time on council. carry out the work of actuaries, they easier said than done! First, the linear After the presentation of the Annual would not be entitled to call themselves mixing model is only an approximate one; Reports the President invited Professor actuaries. We mulled over these, and other, second, it is sometimes the case that few, William Dunsmuir from the University of questions over a couple of glasses of wine if any, pixels contain a large proportion NSW to deliver the 2005 H.O. Lancaster and dinner at Terraza in Nedlands. of a subset of the pure components; and lecture. William’s lecture was entitled third, there is a considerable amount “Modelling Dependence in Time Series April 2005 of pre-processing of the spectra that of Counts”. He motivated his talk by Hyperspectral imaging, and in must be done before the simplex can providing many examples of count particular, the unmixing of hyperspectral be fitted. Aloke outlined one approach time series including data on asthma images, was the topic of April’s talk given to simplex fitting, and then went on to attacks in NSW and blood alcohol studies by the WA Branch President, Aloke Phatak discuss extensions that are required, from Minnesota and gave a review of
14 SSAI’s Canberra offi ce has moved – The new postal address is: PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 SSAI Newsletter – May 2005 The telephone remains the same (02) 6249 8266 – Our new Fax (02) 6249 6558 Branch Reports Continued the current situation with regard to the and cattle is a significant factor in the His advice to statisticians could, he said, analysis of such data. He focussed on spread of the disease. A long-term case- perhaps best be expressed by adapting the the class of models which is an extension control study has been designed to advice given to applied mathematicians of generalized linear models where, examine the effect of culling the badger by Lord Rayleigh: in applying our conditional on a time series of state population, thus providing policy discipline to the world we must neither variables, the observation time series makers with the information they need to seek nor evade complications ! has an exponential family distribution. decide whether this unpopular method That statistics does have its lighter He compared the parameter driven of control ought to be adopted. The study moments became evident later over dependence and observation driven has had to seek input from the fields of dinner. At a neighbouring table in the dependence approaches and highlighted agricultural science (farm management restaurant was a group of town planners opportunities for future theoretical and practices), pathogenesis (the mechanism who in the course of the evening began computational research. of disease transmission) and genetics (the taking wagers amongst themselves on the Neville Weber possibly different distribution of variants occupation of those sitting at our table. of the disease in cattle and badgers). The When informed that we were statisticians, From Public Policy to Particle trial commenced in 1998 and, though the jubilant winners magnanimously Physics scheduled to run until 2007, has made decided to donate their takings to our This was the intriguing title of an a surprising preliminary finding: the table ! address given by Professor Sir David Cox reactive culling of badgers, i.e. culling Jos Beunen who generously agreed to fit a meeting in response to the discovery of diseased of the NSW Branch into a crowded ISI cattle, appears to have a harmful effect on 2005 schedule. As perhaps can only be the control of the disease. CANBERRA done by a statistician of his prominence From elementary particle physics and experience, Sir David took us from came an example of the detection of Overview of developments in a definition of statistics to the challenges rare events. According to current theory, statistical curriculum by Helen facing the discipline today via some the event (beta-beta neutrino-free decay) MacGillivray fascinating examples which illustrate is impossible, but if it were to occur it the importance of statistics in the public At the monthly meeting of the should be seen at a well-defined particle arena. Canberra Branch of the SSAI on Tuesday energy. The statistical analysis of the Statistics, said Sir David, is the study of 22 February 2005 – hosted as usual data involved modelling the energy by the Centre for Mathematics and its systems in which variation is not always spectrum of observed decays by fitting systematic. The stages of this study Applications (CMA) at the Australian a product of Poisson distributions to the National University (ANU) in Canberra include the design of experiments, the rates of various component events using measurement of data and the analysis – Professor Helen MacGillivray of Bayesian parameter determination. Here, and interpretation of results, the overall the School of Mathematical Sciences, the complexity of the statistical analysis aim being to provide accurate and timely Queensland University of Technology, of the data made it difficult to accept information to guide action and public gave a talk titled “An overview of recent the conclusion that a rate significantly policy. and current developments in statistics different from random noise had been curriculum across educational levels”. That proper statistical analysis of data observed. What would a different method Helen was introduced by Professor Alan is needed if conclusions are to be reliable of analysis have concluded? was illustrated by the example of hospital Welsh (CMA) who listed some of her “league tables”. Such tables are published Sir David concluded by making some many contributions to the statistical on a regular basis by health authorities in general observations which the statistics profession, in particular her deep the U.K. and rank hospitals in the order community would do well to keep in involvement with educational issues in of increasing percentage of readmission mind: both the UK and Australia. Professor of patients. However, if one examines • Analysis of data must be integrated Terry O’Neill (School of Finance and the variation of the number of patients with information from the discipline Applied Statistics, ANU) also noted that, readmitted with the total volume of from which the data come as well as being a past president, Helen is the first female honorary life member of patients, it appears that the percentage • The trend to specialisation and SSAI, a distinction awarded at the joint readmitted is essentially constant across fragmentation of the discipline is statistical meetings in Cairns last July. all the hospitals in the study. Thus, league making it more difficult to see the tables are more the result of random unity of the subject and to maintain Helen began by acknowledging her variation than an indication of hospital that “cross-fertilisation” which is so first experiences as a statistics tutor, at quality. conducive to progress the ANU in 1972. Much has changed The design of statistical trials is since then, at national, international and • At a time when analyses are often frequently a multi-disciplinary effort. local levels. The National Statement on too elaborate and field-specific, there This point was compellingly made by the Mathematics for Australian Schools in is still a need for general techniques example of a study currently underway 1990 led to a major reorganisation of in the U.K. into the spread of bovine implemented in good software that is mathematics across all school levels, tuberculosis. This disease, which is broadly applicable including the introduction of Chance similar to, though not the same as, the • The younger generation of applied and Data strands for Years 1 to 10, and human and avian forms, occurs in both statisticians needs guidance on the more applied emphasis in statistics in cattle and badgers. The key question is strategy of analysis and especially in Years 11 and 12 in all states except NSW. whether transmission between badgers the use of software packages. Helen has become increasingly involved
SSAI Newsletter – May 2005 SSAI’s Canberra offi ce has moved – The new postal address is: PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 15 The telephone remains the same (02) 6249 8266 – Our new Fax (02) 6249 6558 Branch Reports Continued in statistics and mathematics education two candidates – Dr Brent Henderson forum immediately following the over the years whilst being instrumental of the CSIRO and Dr Borek Puza of 55th International Statistics Institute in several advisory and developmental the Australian National University conference. The two invited speakers, roles. For example, she is currently Chair (ANU) – the former was elected with 20 Dr Ralf Münnich from University of of the Senior Mathematics Committee of votes to 15. The AGM was immediately Tübingen and Professor Seppo Laaksonen the Queensland Studies Authority. She followed by a talk by Dr Ann Cowling from University of Helsinki and Statistics was recently asked to re-write the Data – Previous President and Head of the Finland, in Australia to attend the ISI, strand of the P-10 (Pre-School to Year Statistical Consulting Unit at the ANU spoke over two days on initiatives to 10) syllabus, in collaboration with the – titled “Sankhya: Statistics and Indian prepare the European statistical system Maths Project Team of the Queensland Philosophy”. The evening ended with a for the enlarged union. The first session Studies Authority. Some of Helen’s sumptuous barbecue. at ABS House concentrated on the recommendations were to focus more on Ann, who has some familiarity with deliverables from the “Data Quality in the practicalities of real data that students yoga and had been to India recently, Complex Surveys” – DACSEIS – project can own (rather than lots of “clean began her talk by quoting an invocation which wound up a year ago with little datasets”, which tend to generate in Sanskrit whose translation reads: “May recommendations to National Statistics boredom), to avoid unnecessary jargon, we be nurtured together...” Sankhya (or Institutes (NSIs) contributing to European and to develop concepts and awareness more properly Sankhyā) is also known level policy statistics. The focus of this of variation. Helen’s recommendations as the Indian Journal of Statistics and project was on accuracy, nonresponse were followed but not all completely to publishes research articles in the broad and sampling errors. The centrepiece of her satisfaction. areas of Applied Statistics, Mathematical DACSEIS was a large scale collaborative Helen also spoke of changes that Statistics and Probability. It ranks slightly simulation study based on live official have occurred at tertiary level before above the ANZJS but not as high as the data from the German Mikrozensus discussing some of the conventions and Scandinavian Journal of Statistics. (supplying labour force survey series data) that tested candidate methods for workshops at the international level, The word “sankhya” (or “samkhya” variance estimation, and treatment of including ICOTS6 (The 6th International as it is sometimes spelt) has several missing data. The project aim was for Conference on the Teaching of Statistics), different meanings. In Sanskrit the usual standardised and harmonised variance held in Cape Town, South Africa, in 2002, meaning is “number” or “enumeration”, estimation methods delivered in R-code and The IASE (International Association but the original meaning was “means with a Practice manual. For this to be for Statistical Education) Roundtable of valid knowledge”, including for acceptable to NSIs the investigations on Curricular Development in Statistics example “reliable authority” but not needed to be convincing, indeed Education, held in Lund, Sweden, in “verbal testimony”. The word refers to needed to break ground in the scale 2004. The latter meeting, which was one of six schools of Indian philosophy and sophistication of testing procedures. attended by approximately 26 invited and is associated with the spiritual path. The DACSEIS team drew together NSI persons from 10 countries, demonstrated Some of its other meanings are “insight” and academic methodologists with the commonalities in challenges facing and “investigative understanding”, and fruitful collaboration on data access statistics curricula around the globe. these can be found in the Rig Veda, the and theoretical fronts respectively. Ralf One of the major themes of Helen’s Bhagavad Gita (500 BCE - 500 CE) and illustrated his talk on variance estimation talk was the acute need within schools for the oldest Upanishads (c. 1500 - 800 using DACSEIS live test data from the sustained professional development BCE). The root of the word is “khya”, Saarland, population 1m, sufficiently of teachers in the field of statistics. This meaning “to perceive”, “to view”, “to small for the simulations to be feasible need has been enounced strongly by be known”, or “to make well-known”, but with realistic spread. Advanced teachers themselves, with a complaint from which come the meanings “to add survey estimation methods tested that the occasional half-day workshop up”, “to calculate” and “to estimate”. included Taylor linearisation, Särndal- is not enough. Another theme was the In the 1933 editorial to Volume 1, Lundstrom 2-phase calibration, GREG, general lack of community awareness Prasanta C. Mahalanobis wrote: “The Maximum Likelihood Raking, Delete- of the generic skills that come from history of the word Sankhyā shows the d-Jacknife, Bootstrap Rao-Sitter Raking, mathematics and statistics. There is a call intimate connection which has existed multiple imputation (Rubin-Rässler). here for statisticians to become involved, for more than 3000 years in the Indian New methods showed impressive both in helping to develop school syllabi mind between ‘adequate knowledge’ improvements in reduced variance and in mustering the resources for the and ‘number.’ As we interpret it, the bias from established resampling (Jack- ongoing training of teachers in statistics fundamental aim of statistics is to give knife) and linearisation methods, but not and statistical thinking. determinate and adequate knowledge of always practical. The best performing in reality with the help of numbers and Borek Puza terms of bias (Rao-Sitter) was far too slow numerical analysis. The ancient Indian to be recommended in practice. Results word Sankhyā embodies the same idea, Canberra Branch AGM and talk were sensitive to quality of auxiliary and this is why we have chosen this on Sankhya by Ann Cowling information and nature of stratification. name for the Indian Journal of Statistics”. The 2005 Annual General Meeting of While all methods addressed estimate the Canberra Branch of SSAI was held Borek Puza bias, and most gave acceptably low bias on Tuesday 29 March. This AGM was in the variance when the target was the first in the history of the Branch Statistical Methods in numerous; in rare populations care was at which an election needed to be held Government forum needed. Multiple Imputation proved for the position of President (a two-year Canberra Branch organized a superior where nonresponse rate was term). After short policy speeches by the “Statistical Methods in Government” high but was not distinguished from
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have severely hampered development. VICTORIA By treating matching as a problem in missing data it is possible both to draw on the advances in missing data techniques A Special Workshop on and to emphasise the protective aspects Improving Survey Data Quality that this approach stresses. The typology Data quality is arguably the most presented broke down this approach critical issue in social surveys. The into manageable problems: pooling Victorian Branch was fortunate in (population level); merging several files securing Denise Lievesley, Director of together – identifying mother-daughter Statistics, UNESCO, to present a full-day (and grandmother-granddaughter) files; workshop on this topic on October 25. Justine Gibbings and Ralf Munnich joining two or more files with different The list of Denise’s credentials would coverage (as developed most completely hold even Gilbert and Sullivan in awe: other methods at lower levels. The project by Statistics Netherlands); matching at apart from her demanding UNESCO allowed investigation into good practice two or more levels (matched employer- role, she is currently President-Elect of with MI on official datasets, which is employee or enterprise-client files, now the International Statistical Institute (ISI), finally within reach of processing capacity. in active development by NSIs including a fellow of University College London, DACSEIS reports can be accessed on Australia and internationally). Various an honorary Professor at the University http://www.dacseis.de/ efforts could be drawn on – the European of Durham, a visiting Professor at City Development of techniques for Community Household Panel requiring University and a visiting Professor at imputing missing items in official surveys cross national harmonization, and INRS in Montreal; and formerly she has has been hampered by external pressures, between register and questionnaire based been head of the sampling branch of lack of adequate time and capacity to test sources (examined in an earlier methods the British Government Social Survey and disjointedness between theoretical project CHINTEX); the International Division, Director of the ISI (1989 to 1991), work and practise. It has typically Wage Flexibility Project. Measurement Director of the UK Data Archive (1991 resulted in defending the method for errors attract attention (most severe in to 1999), President of the International dealing with missing data adopted by the case of panel studies) and problems Association of Official Statistics (1995 to an office and since reinforced. DACSEIS after editing. The attraction of non-exact 1997) and President of the Royal Statistical recommendations could draw on an matching was in providing protection Society (1999 to 2001). unusual collaboration between practising against microdata disclosure and in and theoretical methodologists, and extending survey analytical capacity. adequate investigation resources, to Susanne Rässler – associated with deliver an imputation method ‘trained’ DACSEIS – had reported on fresh results to the survey to which it is applied. in statistical matching/data fusion earlier As Professor Laaksonen explained, in the week in Sydney. preceding the imputation task itself By contrast Ralf’s paper on the are steps to select training data and knowledge economy indicators project auxiliary variables; constructing the launched last year by the European imputation model; and choosing criteria Commission tackles how to build reliable for selection. Calculating the component indicators out of faulty data spread of estimate uncertainty due to imputation across numerous collection systems. follows. Within this framework the This picks up the vogue of indicator relative qualities of current or historical development from 20 years ago, but methods can be discussed and sensible with now immediate cross national recommendations made free of confusion policy application. Out of this joint work Two of the most enthusiastic workshop in terminology. novel methods of graphical analysis and participants Helen Bartley and Kym The second day of the forum held at the representation are emerging. We were Butler. Photo: Brian Phillips Department of Family and Community fortunate in having an early insight into Services addressed more specific topics, the outcomes from this important study. Forty-two eager participants benefited drawn from current innovations in Stephen Horn from Denise’s extensive experience. the European statistical system (but Topics covered included the definition attracting attention elsewhere), data of ‘data quality’, a survey of errors and linkage – vital to efforts at developing how they arise, ways of reducing non- purely administrative censuses and at response, the principles of random reducing respondent load in household sampling and the problems of asking surveys – and composite indicators used sensitive questions. Denise conducted to develop union-level economic policy. the workshop in a highly interactive way, Data linkage was the subject of talks in encouraging questions at any stage and health statistics and census context in peppering her answers with pertinent ABS drawing on United States Bureau real examples. The workshop was not of the Census experience at this time, intended for novices. It transpired that making Professor Laaksonen’s synopsis the registrants were quite heterogeneous, topical. While the advantages of linking Seppo Laaksonen, Ken Brewer and ranging from academics who knew the seem obvious, legal and methods barriers Stephen Horn. theory but had little real experience to
SSAI Newsletter – May 2005 SSAI’s Canberra offi ce has moved – The new postal address is: PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 17 The telephone remains the same (02) 6249 8266 – Our new Fax (02) 6249 6558 Branch Reports Continued
His topic was credit rating modelling in the Ukraine. Most credit rating models are created in developed countries, and are based on direct financial information, such as registered properties, bank statements and official salary level. In developing countries this type of data may not represent the real ability of a client to repay a loan, or may simply be unavailable. Circumstantial variables such as a lifestyle, length of work in a particular area and personality traits are widely used in insurance, but much less so in lending services. The aim of the project undertaken by Oleg and his colleagues is to determine a suitable and extensive list of variables related to banking credit risk in developing countries, using information provided by one of the Ukrainian banks. Denise Lievesley and Cliff Da Costa (RMIT) discuss some finer points of Survey Data Quality. Photo: Brian Phillips others with considerable experience and the organisers thank the ABS (and in conducting surveys but little formal Bruce Fraser in particular) for offering to training. It was a difficult hydra to host the workshop. The organisers can slay, but Denise was able to provide all only hope that the participants found the attendees with insightful advice. workshop instructions and materials to be equally satisfactory. In a workshop on improving Data Quality, it was imperative that other Instead of accepting a presenter’s aspects of the meeting should also be of fee, Denise requested that the Victorian high quality. The food was sumptuous Branch sponsor some Young Statisticians Tracey McPhail and plentiful. The workshop location, to attend the ISI in Sydney in April Photo: Brian Phillips Training Room 1 in the Australian Bureau 2005. The Branch advertised the ‘Denise of Statistics (ABS) Offices in Melbourne, Lievesley Awards’ in early November. The The second speaker was Tracey successful candidates were Tristan Barnett commanded thought-gazumping views McPhail, who told us how she became (Swinburne University, Student Award), a statistician. While studying Health of Telstra Dome and The Docklands. Martin Donadio (Australian Bureau of Science at university she came across The chairs were comfortable and the Statistics), Derchieh Hung (University of subjects such as epidemiology, molecular acoustics excellent. It was a top venue, Melbourne Statistical Consulting Centre) biology and genetics that inspired her and Natalie Karavarsamis (Department interest in statistics and medical sciences of Primary Industry). We thank all research. In the workforce she eventually applicants for their interest and the time found herself at the Alfred Hospital in they spent preparing applications. Denise the Infectious Diseases Department. Here has many friends in Australia, and her two mentors provided her with positive generous act bears witness to why. Thank guidance. In some significant HIV projects you, Denise, for making the long trip she was given responsibility for database from Montreal to present the workshop, management, statistical analysis and and for your commitment to the future reporting at various levels. She saw that Tristan Barnett Martin Donadio of statistics. there was an opportunity for running a business catering for services of this type, Kay Lipson and Geoff Laslett and, by the end of the job, had drafted a business plan. Some work experiences of Young Statisticians in Victoria Tracey then moved to the Victorian Cancer Council, where she worked on The September meeting of the Victorian a national and international study that Branch was given over to the Victorian was investigating the effects of mobile Young Statisticians Group. Three phone use on the development of brain volunteers presented talks about their tumours. Her duties included recruiting experiences as young statisticians. patients and matching them with a Derchieh Hung Natalie Karavarsamis The first speaker was Oleg Petrenko, random sample of controls, coordinating The four Denise Lievesley Award whose interest in statistics was stimulated a team of interviewers and liaising with winners by work experience in market research. network providers and a neuroradiologist.
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Currently, at Monash Medical School, statistical theme of interest to a general education is 0.5% of this; US$7 billion is Tracey is engaged in a systematic review audience. estimated as needed to get all children of laparoscopic band surgery which is This year the Belz Lecture, held into school – the amount spent annually used for morbidly obese people. She has according to recent tradition on the on cosmetics in the USA or on ice-cream also taken on several projects for the fourth Tuesday in October, attracted a in Europe; US$1.45 billion, the price of Young Statisticians: a newsletter about large audience of about 60 people. The one ballistic submarine, would double the resources and opportunities; a network drawcard was Professor Denise Lievesley, education budgets of 18 poor countries. list of statisticians and their fields of Director of the UNESCO Institute for Can these problems be solved by Statistics. She is perhaps the world’s most expertise; and ways of promoting a throwing technology at them? History travelled statistician, and certainly the positive image of statistics to allay proclaims not, because the infrastructure, one under most diplomatic pressure, equipment and training are not available. people’s fear of the topic. because she answers not only to the Can they be solved by encouraging Director-General of UNESCO, but to all developing countries to adopt the 190 UNESCO Ambassadors as well! principles of the market economy? This strategy has fallen out of favour, to be replaced by one involving partnership, equity and coordinated aid. It is on this last point that the international statistician can help. Aid dispensed without good Tristan Barnett data on where to spend it can be aid Photo: Brian Phillips misused, particularly when money is tight. But the role of data is wider. Cross- The third speaker was Tristan Barnett, national data provides the global picture a PhD student in Sports Statistics at that on the one hand mobilises resources, Swinburne University. He described a engages donors and keeps governments model-based method of predicting the accountable, and on the other provides probability of a player winning a tennis benchmarks, acts as a catalyst for debate match against his opponent, based on the and helps countries learn from each data from a partially completed match other. In this context high-quality data and the statistics of previous encounters is paramount, and Professor Lievesley published by the Association of Tennis argued that this is best achieved by Professionals. He illustrated how the The 2004 Belz Lecturer working in partnership with countries, probability changed point by point in Professor Denise Lievesley rather than by the imposition of external a match between Andy Roddick and standards and methodologies. Younes El Aynaoui at the 2003 Australian Professor Lievesley began by pointing Professor Lievesley believes that the Open. Roddick eventually won the out that there are many challenges facing profession can only accomplish these ‘historic encounter’ after a long fifth set: statisticians in the international context. In noble objectives if it adopts some recently 4-6, 7-6 (5), 4-6, 6-4, 21-19. particular, high-quality data are needed formulated ‘principles of international to ensure that international development The meeting was an interesting statistics’ (to be debated at the forthcoming strategies are pro-poor and pro-equity. innovation. The talks attracted many UN Statistics Commission to be held in The role of the UNESCO Institute for questions, and those who attended clearly March 2005 in New York). International Statistics is to manage the collection and enjoyed the presentations. Future joint statisticians should, as a body, act collation of data pertaining to education, meetings between the Victorian Branch impartially, maintain professional ethical science and technology, culture and and the Young Statisticians are planned. and technical standards and respect the communication from all over the globe. confidentiality of sources of data while Derchieh Hung These data have enabled definitive making them accessible. At the individual statements to be made concerning the level statisticians should be aware of The role of an international scale of the problems we face, such as the professional ethical responsibilities, statistician 103.5 million children who have no access maintain membership of professional The annual Belz Lecture was to schooling and the 800 million people bodies, respect the ideas and values of inaugurated in 1969 to honour Professor who are illiterate. These challenges must one’s counterparts and devote resources Maurice Belz, the Foundation Professor of be seen within the context of broad global to building mutual trust. Statistics at the University of Melbourne, predicaments: half the world’s population In summary, the international for his work in establishing and advancing have to manage on less than $2 a day; the statistician faces some serious challenges. the science of Statistics in Australia. It has world’s population will grow from six to Statistics can benefit society, but may be become the premier event of the Victorian eight billion by 2025; and over 36 million used to maintain the status quo or even Branch Calendar, and in recent years it people live with AIDS. for oppression. The statistician needs to has taken on the additional status of a These problems may seem walk a tightrope that allows for open University of Melbourne Public Lecture. insurmountable, but Professor Lievesley accountability while respecting national Accordingly each year the Victorian was able to put them into a disquieting sovereignty. The push for globalisation Branch Council seeks a high profile context: since 1945, US$8 trillion has been is changing the way aid is delivered. Lecturer who can present a thought- spent on nuclear weapons – the estimated The international statistician can only provoking and memorable address on a international public expenditure on function by acting openly, and adopting
SSAI Newsletter – May 2005 SSAI’s Canberra offi ce has moved – The new postal address is: PO Box 5111, Braddon ACT 2612 19 The telephone remains the same (02) 6249 8266 – Our new Fax (02) 6249 6558 Branch Reports Continued ethical frameworks, codes of practice and the convex curvilinear class, and the At the AGM new officers were elected: codes of conduct. convex polygon-curvilinear class. The set President – Professor John A. Eccleston Maurice Belz was himself an of possible classes is based on a priori of University of Queensland knowledge of the topological properties international statistician. He was Secretary – Helen Johnson from of shape, discernible properties of the elected as a member of the International Queensland University of Technology. Statistical Institute in 1948, acted as a figure and unique features of the figure. consultant to international companies, The Les innovation is to recognize that Following the AGM Professor Kerrie and was President of the France-Australia each different shape class requires a Mengersen of Queensland University Association of Victoria for 27 years. A different sequence of processing methods of Technology spoke on “Assessing fellow francophile, he would have found for optimal results. The researchers have the combined impact of smoking and much in common with the 2004 Belz labelled this type of artificial intelligence asbestos on health”. Lecturer. ‘visual reasoning’. Pattern recognition Kerrie discussed methods to obtain a within their system uses Hidden Markov Geoff Laslett better understanding of the interactive Models or Bayesian networks. The effects of multiple environmental and speakers illustrated their method of visual Shape Understanding System: industrial exposures on health for inference on several statistical problems, the application of statistical individual, corporate and public health including curve identification, regression, methods in designing a system decision-making. Several studies, cluster analysis and discriminant with visual thinking capabilities providing published data on smoking analysis. and asbestos were presented. Data in The November meeting was addressed Eddy Torr this area of exposure to risks are usually by Magdelena Les and Dr Zbigniew available on individual exposures, and Les from the Queen Jadwiga Research QUEENSLAND sometimes on the combined exposures. Institute of Understanding. Since 1996 Using these studies, meta-analysis models they have been publishing conference March 2005 were built to examine the type and degree reports and papers on a novel concept, their shape understanding system (SUS), The AGM and branch meeting was of combined effect. The presentation in journals such as Computers and Graphics, held on Tuesday, 29th March, 2005 at described methods for undertaking the International Journal of Shape Modelling Queensland University of Technology. meta-analysis for assessing whether the and the International Journal of Pattern Bronwyn Harch welcomed all members combined effect of smoking and asbestos Recognition and Artificial Intelligence. and a member Miranda Mortlock was exposure is additive or multiplicative. If robots, for example, are to interact presented with her AStat Certificate. The results obtained showed them to be consistently with their environment, they Miranda works at the Office of Economic somewhere in between the additive and will need a robust method of recognizing and Statistical Research which is an office multiplicative. and processing shapes. The authors claim, of Queensland Treasury. Miranda Mortlock however, that image processing methods applied in visual systems often yield unsatisfactory results, mainly because a specific image processing method is applied to a broad range of shapes. SUS is an attempt to provide a better system. It recognizes that shape understanding is inherently complex, and this observation serves as a starting point for the new system. A novel feature of SUS is its reliance on selected classes of shapes, for example the convex class, the concave class, the ‘thin’ class, the convex polygon class, MASA
Model Assisted Statistics and Applications An International Journal ISSN: 1574-1699
www.iospress.com Editor-in-Chief: Sarjinder Singh Managing Editor: Stephen Horn Treasurer: Sylvia R. Valdes Miranda Mortlock receives her AStat certificate from Bronwyn Harch.
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