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Royal Statistical Scandal False and misleading claims by the Royal Statistical Society Including on human poverty and UN global goals Documentary evidence Matt Berkley Draft 27 June 2019 1 "The Code also requires us to be competent. ... We must also know our limits and not go beyond what we know.... John Pullinger RSS President" https://www.statslife.org.uk/news/3338-rss-publishes-revised-code-of- conduct "If the Royal Statistical Society cannot provide reasonable evidence on inflation faced by poor people, changing needs, assets or debts from 2008 to 2018, I propose that it retract the honour and that the President makes a statement while he holds office." Matt Berkley 27 Dec 2018 2 "a recent World Bank study showed that nearly half of low-and middle- income countries had insufficient data to monitor poverty rates (2002- 2011)." Royal Statistical Society news item 2015 1 "Max Roser from Oxford points out that newspapers could have legitimately run the headline ' Number of people in extreme poverty fell by 137,000 since yesterday' every single day for the past 25 years... Careless statistical reporting could cost lives." President of the Royal Statistical Society Lecture to the Independent Press Standards Organisation April 2018 2 1 https://www.statslife.org.uk/news/2495-global-partnership-for- sustainable-development-data-launches-at-un-summit 2 https://www.statslife.org.uk/features/3790-risk-statistics-and-the-media 3 "Mistaken or malicious misinformation can change your world... When the government is wrong about you it will hurt you too but you may never know how. When you're wrong about the government, you might lose again. We live with information plenty and starvation, political lying, skillful disinformation..." Royal Statistical Society website https://www.statslife.org.uk/events/events-calendar/eventdetail/1093/- /2018-beveridge-lecture-other-truths-are-available "In carrying out research, or endorsing research carried out by other organisations, charities should ensure that the research is properly conducted using robust and objective research methods." UK Government Campaigning and political activity guidance for charities 3 3 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/speaking-out-guidance-on- campaigning-and-political-activity-by-charities-cc9/speaking-out-guidance-on- campaigning-and-political-activity-by-charities 4 "You and your co-trustees must make sure that everything your charity does helps (or is intended to help) to achieve the purposes for which it is set up, and no other purpose. This means you should: ... • be able to explain how all of the charity’s activities are intended to further or support its purposes ... Spending charity funds on the wrong purposes is a very serious matter; in some cases trustees may have to reimburse the charity personally." UK Government 4 4 https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-essential-trustee-what-you-need- to-know-cc3/the-essential-trustee-what-you-need-to-know-what-you-need-to-do 5 The Royal Statistical Society has been asked to supply evidence for one of its claims on human poverty. Do its claims meet its standards? It claimed that its "Statistics of the Year" are "really thoroughly fact-checked"; "fully fact-checked and fully trustworthy". 6 5 "Ask for Evidence is supported by...the Royal Statistical Society." 6 5 http://www.askforevidence.org/about 6 http://askforevidence.org/images/545685197365723281020000 7 Will the Royal Statistical Society confirm whether it now believes its "Statistics of the Year", including on poverty, met the criteria the Society itself set: "accurate, coherent and not misleading"? 8 9 Even the Royal Statistical Society logo refers to the fact that evidence influences decisions: 10 "a recent World Bank study showed that nearly half of low-and middle- income countries had insufficient data to monitor poverty rates (2002- 2011)." Royal Statistical Society news item 2015 https://www.statslife.org.uk/news/2495-global-partnership-for- sustainable-development-data-launches-at-un-summit "Max Roser from Oxford points out that newspapers could have legitimately run the headline ' Number of people in extreme poverty fell by 137,000 since yesterday' every single day for the past 25 years... Careless statistical reporting could cost lives." Risk, statistics and the media: David Spiegelhalter, president of the Royal Statistical Society Lecture to the Independent Press Standards Organisation April 2018 https://www.statslife.org.uk/features/3790-risk-statistics-and-the-media "In my angrier moments I feel that number abuse should be made a criminal offence. But that’s a law unlikely to be passed by politicians." David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge and president-elect of the Royal Statistical Society 2016 https://www.theguardian.com/science/2016/jul/17/politicians-dodgy- statistics-tricks-guide How is the claim below not "number abuse"? Poverty is subjective, the claim is not based on looking at changing needs or assets, and as the 11 Royal Statistical Society itself said in 2015, the data on people's economic circumstances are inadequate. 12 Matt Berkley @mattberkley Mar 13 Replying to @mattberkley @sanjaygreddy and 28 others Is anyone willing to defend Professor Spiegelhalter's claim? If not: 1. Why is it on a Royal Statistical Society website? 2. Why is it on a press regulator's website? 3. What has the Society done to rectify wrong impressions among journalists and the public? Is the Society not going against its own declaration? "Above all a true data revolution that puts useful and useable information into the hands of everyone who needs it, especially the poor and the marginalised, must be pursued." Royal Statistical Society and other organisations World Statistics Day statement October 2015 "Complex statistics have their place, but if there is no clear explanation, they are not helpful to the public and potentially quite damaging." Liberty Vittert Royal Statistical Society "Statistical Ambassador" Judging panel member for Royal Statistical Society "Statistics of the Year" 2018 https://theconversation.com/the-problem-with-official-statistics-and-three- ways-to-make-them-better-103448 13 "For more than a hundred years official statistics of low income and poverty have been a matter of heated debate and controversy." https://www.taylorfrancis.com/books/e/9780203993477/chapters/10.432 4/9780203993477-10 14 15 "when you find errors that are likely to mislead, then point them out!" https://www.rss.org.uk/RSS/Publications/Journals/Books_for_Review/RS S/Publications/Journals_sub/Books_for_Review.aspx 16 "Constitutional Authority The Royal Statistical Society is a professional and learned society which, through its members, has an obligation in the public interest to provide the best possible statistical service and advice. In general, the public has no ready means of judging the quality of professional service except from the reputation of the provider. Thus it is essential that the highest standards are maintained by all Fellows whenever they are acting professionally and whatever their level of qualification. Professional membership of the Society is an assurance of ability and integrity. The constitutional authority for the Royal Statistical Society Code of Conduct derives firstly from Bye-Laws 24(f) and 8 of the Society and, secondly, formal adoption by Council. RULES OF PROFESSIONAL CONDUCT As an aid to understanding, these rules have been grouped into the principal duties and obligations which all Fellows should endeavour to fulfil in pursuing their professional lives. The Public Interest 1. Fellows should always be aware of their overriding responsibility to the public good; including public health, safety and environment. a. A Fellow’s obligations to employers, clients and the profession can never override this; and Fellows should seek to avoid situations and not enter into undertakings which compromise this responsibility. b. Fellows shall ensure that within their chosen fields they have appropriate knowledge ... https://www.rss.org.uk/Images/PDF/about/2017/RegulationsUpdatedMarch2017.pdf 17 "As a charity, we advocate the key role of statistics and data in society, and we work to ensure that policy formulation and decision making are informed by evidence for the public good. Everything we do is guided by our Strategic Plan 2018-22 , which has six goals at its heart: Statistics and the public interest . For statistics to be used effectively in the public interest, so that policy formulation and decision-making are informed by evidence of the good of society." https://www.rss.org.uk/RSS/About/RSS/About_the_RSS/About_top.aspx "...trustees must not allow the charity to be used as a vehicle for the expression of the political views of any individual trustee or staff member... "a charity can campaign using emotive or controversial material...Such material must be factually accurate and have a legitimate evidence base" "In carrying out research, or endorsing research carried out by other organisations, charities should ensure that the research is properly conducted using robust and objective research methods." UK Government: Campaigning and political activity guidance for charities https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/speaking-out-guidance-on- campaigning-and-political-activity-by-charities-cc9/speaking-out-guidance-on- campaigning-and-political-activity-by-charities 18 "Make decisions to manage risks of detriment or harm to your charity’s beneficiaries or to the public in general that might result from carrying out the purpose This means identifying risks of harm, minimising the risks and making sure that any harm that might arise is a minor consequence of carrying out the purpose." https://www.gov.uk/guidance/public-benefit-rules-for-charities 19 Notes The Royal Statistical Society has an institutional problem. That is clear, I suggest, from the evidence in this document. But also, there is a wider cultural problem, in addition to institutional problems in other organisations. It is astonishing to me that the basic mistakes in what the Society has claimed about its "Statistics of the Year" have not been widely challenged.
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