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How Long Do People Stick to a Diet Resolution? a Digital Epidemiological Estimation of Weight Loss Diet Persistence

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How Long Do People Stick to a Diet Resolution? a Digital Epidemiological Estimation of Weight Loss Diet Persistence Public Health Nutrition: page 1 of 12 doi:10.1017/S1368980020001597 How long do people stick to a diet resolution? A digital epidemiological estimation of weight loss diet persistence S Towers1,*,SCole1,EIboi1,CMontalvo1,MGNavas-Zuloaga1, JAM Pringle1, D Saha1,MThakur1,JVelazquez-Molina1,AMurillo2 ,CCastillo-Chavez1,2 and JC Norcross3 1Simon A. Levin Mathematical, Computational and Modeling Sciences Center, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, USA: 2Applied Mathematics Division and Data Science Initiative, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, USA: 3Department of Physchology, University of Scranton, Scranton, PA 18510, USA Submitted 5 September 2019: Final revision received 2 March 2020: Accepted 27 April 2020 Abstract Objective: To use Internet search data to compare duration of compliance for various diets. Design: Using a passive surveillance digital epidemiological approach, we esti- mated the average duration of diet compliance by examining monthly Internet searches for recipes related to popular diets. We fit a mathematical model to these data to estimate the time spent on a diet by new January dieters (NJD) and to estimate the percentage of dieters dropping out during the American winter holiday season between Thanksgiving and the end of December. Setting: Internet searches in the USA for recipes related to popular diets over a 15-year period from 2004 to 2019. Participants: Individuals in the USA performing Internet searches for recipes related to popular diets. Results: All diets exhibited significant seasonality in recipe-related Internet searches, with sharp spikes every January followed by a decline in the number of searches and a further decline in the winter holiday season. The Paleo diet had the longest average compliance times among NJD (5.32 ± 0.68 weeks) and the lowest dropout during the winter holiday season (only 14 ± 3 % dropping out in December). The South Beach diet had the shortest compliance time among ± NJD (3.12 0.64 weeks) and the highest dropout during the holiday season Keywords ± (33 7 % dropping out in December). Diet persistence Conclusions: The current study is the first of its kind to use passive surveillance data Passive surveillance to compare the duration of adherence with different diets and underscores the Digital epidemiology potential usefulness of digital epidemiological approaches to understanding health Comparison of diets behaviours. New Year’s resolutions According to the Centers for Disease Control and dieting has become prevalent in the American society. Prevention, obesity is a rising epidemic that poses serious At any given time, between 15 and 35 % of Americans are health challenges in the USA(1,2). In 2015, an estimated trying to lose weight(5), and Americans spend an estimated 93·3 million (39·8 %) US adults aged ≥20 years and $US 33 billion each year on weight loss products(6). 13·7 million children aged ≤19 years (18·5 %) were obese(3). The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey in By 2030, a projected 115 million adults will be obese in the 2013–2016 found that changing eating habits was listed by USA(4). Obesity poses many risks to health, including type 2 adults as one of the most popular means of attempting to lose diabetes, hypertension, stroke, coronary artery disease, weight(7). several forms of cancer and cognitive dysfunction(1). The advent of the New Year is a key time when 40–45 % Obesity is also associated with decreases in both human of Americans resolve to make changes to their lifestyle, and economic productivity, and in 2010, an estimated $US including health behaviours like stopping smoking, getting 147 billion was invested in the prevention, diagnosis and more exercise and dieting(8,9). Unfortunately, among the treatment for obesity in the USA(3). With the rise of obesity, tens of millions of Americans who resolve to lose weight *Corresponding author: Email [email protected] © The Author(s), 2020 2 S Towers et al. at the beginning of each year, few – certainly less than are typically associated with obesity. While their analysis half – will succeed(5,8,9). But virtually unstudied in the noted seasonality in diet-related Internet searches, it did research literature are the types of diets that are easier not quantify the dropout rates of NJD, nor did it compare for such resolvers to adhere to over time. Holidays associ- different diets. ated with large meals, such as Thanksgiving, Christmas In our study, we fit a mathematical model to the time and Hanukkah, may also be associated with poor weight series of Internet search trends for multiple diet recipes. loss diet compliance, yet this is also virtually unstudied The model captures both long-term trends in the popularity in the literature. Indeed, the entire US winter holiday of particular diets over time and also short-term temporal season between American Thanksgiving and the end of dynamics of the influx of NJD and the drop out of those December is typically associated with many energy-dense dieters as the year progresses. Using this model, we quan- foods, either as part of meals or exchanged as gifts (such as tify, for the first time, the average time spent by NJD on vari- cookies, chocolates and cakes), and this can represent ous diets before dropout, and how this varies from diet to challenges to dieters(9,10). It is unknown which diets might diet. Using the model, we also examined dieting dropout be easier for dieters to follow when temptation abounds. during the US winter holiday season, which begins in late Many weight loss diets have been formulated over the November and lasts to the end of December. years by clinics (such as the Mayo Clinic), by companies (such as Weight Watchers) and as popular culture diets (such as the Paleo or Keto diets). The relative popularity Methods and materials of these disparate diets over time is difficult to judge (including their relative popularity among New Year’s res- Data olution dieters), and determination of how long the average In 2019, US News & World Report evaluated forty-one person adheres to the diets is also extraordinarily difficult. popular diets and ranked them based on the opinion of Clinical studies of diets suffer from researcher allegiance a panel of health experts as to their ease, nutrition and effects and high dropout rates(11). The experimental design efficacy(19). The best weight loss diets (in descending of such studies (such as having volunteers regularly come order of ranking) were Weight Watchers, Volumetrics, to a clinic to get weighed, or for consultation(12))isa Flexitarian, Jenny Craig, Vegan, Engine 2, Ornish, Raw likely source of bias in reported outcomes compared with Food, HMR Program, Mayo Clinic, SlimFast, DASH, Keto, those achieved by people who begin diets on their own Nutrisystem, Optavia, Vegetarian, Atkins, Biggest Loser, without the supervision of a healthcare professional(11). Eco-Atkins, Mediterranean, Nutritarian, South Beach, Asian, Survey-based studies (e.g., Williamson et al.(13)) can also Spark Solution, TLC, Flat Belly, Nordic, Zone, Macrobiotic, be biased, since respondents may lie about whether they MIND, Dukan, The Fast, Paleo, Anti-Inflammatory, Super- are sticking to a diet(14,15). charged Hormone, Abs, Fertility, Glycemic-Index, Whole30, In the current study, we examined long-term trends in Alkaline and Body Reset diets. The expert panel of nutrition- the popularity of several diets along with short-term ists and health experts did not conduct studies to quantita- dynamics of the drop out of new January dieters (NJD), tively compare the efficacy of the diets, but rather based using time series data on Internet searches in the USA their rankings on their opinions of how easy the diets would for recipes associated with those diets. We also examined likely be to adhere to and how likely they would promote the fraction of dieters who appear to drop out during the long-term weight loss. American winter holiday season. The analysis is predicated Monthly trends in the number of Google searches in the on the assumption that people actively dieting on a particu- USA for recipes related to the above diets were obtained lar plan would want to find recipes associated with from Google Trends application programme interface that diet. (http://www.google.com/trends, accessed August 2019). Our analysis uses the principles of ‘digital epidemiology’, Unless otherwise stated, the time series were examined which is a rapidly emerging paradigm that utilises the between January 2004 and July 2019. Because searches increasing availability of real-time digital data, such as for Mediterranean, Nordic and Asian recipes could be Internet search trends or social media data, to track temporal related to a search for ethnic or regional recipes rather than and geospatial patterns in behaviours, including the spread weight loss diets, we excluded those search terms. In addi- of disease or health problems in populations(16).With90% tion, we excluded search terms related to Vegetarian, of Americans accessing the Internet(17), digital data sources Vegan, Macrobiotic, Raw Food and Fertility recipes, can provide information about disease, health and behaviour because those diets may be associated less with weight in populations that are difficult to trace using traditional loss and potentially more with lifestyle or philosophical surveillance methods(15,16). commitments. For the remaining thirty-three diets, we Such methods have been applied in the past to diets. examined Google search trends for the keywords Markey & Markey(18) found that geospatial patterns in ‘<diet name> Recipes’. We also examined search activity Internet searches related to diets were positively associated for recipes for more generic diets by examining the with geospatial patterns in negative health outcomes that keywords ‘Low Carb Recipes’ and ‘Low Fat Recipes’. The Estimation of weight loss diet persistence 3 keyword search terms were chosen under the supposition in order to obtain reasonable estimates of both long- and that people searching for recipes related to a particular diet short-term trends, approximately 5 years of data related were on that diet.
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