July 20131

A new hub airport for and the UK 2 A new hub airport for London and the UK Introduction 3

Greater London Authority July 2013

Published by Authority City Hall The Queen’s Walk More London London SE1 2AA

www.london.gov.uk enquiries 020 7983 4100 minicom 020 7983 4458

Copies of this report are available from www.london.gov.uk

The UK is facing a hub airport capacity across the globe. This requires the UK crisis which, if not addressed, will hinder to have a modern hub airport with future economic growth and prosperity spare capacity, as well as enabling in every region of the country. airlines to start new routes.

The ability to maintain the UK’s status Without an efficient hub, vital access as a major global trading economy to emerging markets will become depends on access to a comprehensive increasingly limited. network of flights to destinations 4 Flying the flag 5 for the UK

The importance of aviation to For UK-manufactured exports to the UK economy non-EU countries, it is more Passengers in the UK depend on than 50 per cent6. This freight is aviation for most of their international regularly carried on passenger services, connections, with almost 80 per cent particularly where time is critical. of trips abroad made by air1.

Aviation: Exports are vital to the regional • Contributes £50bn to the UK’s economies of the UK GDP each year2 • Supports more than 921,000 jobs The proportion of exports that go in the UK3 to emerging markets by region. • Generates a further £21bn in additional benefits from tourism4 30

London’s aviation connectivity plays a 25 critical role in supporting business and 20 manufacturing, not just in the South East, but all over the UK. % 15 Regien Paassen / Shutterstock.com 10 Planes move freight as well as people, Aviation is of huge strategic importance This has helped consolidate London’s serving worldwide markets and their 5 to the UK economy. Annually, London’s position as the centre of global supply chains. Air freight accounts for a 0 five primary airports handle around 135 commerce, as well as boosting tiny percentage of the UK’s international est est ales

million passengers. business across the whole country. goods movements by volume, but 25 per East W W eland W ondon 5 otland th East cent by value . th Sc er L Nor South East Nor South e & Humber est Midlands thern Ir eat W Gr Nor orkshir Y

1 ONS Travel Trends 2012 Source: Oxford Economics/ONS, 2010 2 IOD, Flying into the Future, 2012 3 IBID 4 IBID 5 Freight Transport Association briefing: Air Freight, 2013 6 IBID 6 Why a hub? 7

Why having a hub airport is vital What is a hub airport? Increased connectivity A single hub • Hub airports accommodate If we do nothing, the number of New route-by-route analysis undertaken The special dynamics of a hub airport high numbers of origin and destinations served by Heathrow for Transport for London (TfL)10 shows are vital for maximising the range of destination as well as transfer will continue to shrink. that only a single, effective four-runway flights that can be offered. Heathrow passengers, allowing airlines hub can meet the UK’s needs for global accounts for 40 per cent of all UK to fly to more destinations, A new four-runway hub will offer a connectivity. It would mean: scheduled air passenger traffic7 and more frequently dramatic improvement in connectivity, 80 per cent of direct long-haul traffic8. • They are the most efficient vital for supporting the UK’s future • A quadrupling of destinations served Without the transfer passengers way of connecting many growth and prosperity. in emerging markets such as China and Heathrow attracts, 80 per cent of different destinations South America, 50 per cent more in its long-haul routes would suffer a • They are able to support routes The connectivity offered by dispersed the US and the restoration of domestic reduction in frequency or be that local demand alone cannot expansion, for example by adding routes to nine cities across the UK lost altogether9. sustain, boosting trade, jobs single additional runways at Gatwick • The London airport system could and economic growth and Stansted, will not facilitate hub serve 20 per cent more destinations 7 UK Air Traffic Statistics, 2011 8 IBID operations and will be inadequate to with a new hub than compared with 9 Ltd, 2012 meet our economic needs. dispersed expansion, 35 per cent more in North America and 160 per cent more in South America A hub airport: the most efficient way of connecting many different destinations

Point-to-point network Hub network 28 routes needed to link 8 points Only requires 8 routes to link 9 points

10 Aviation, June 2013 8 A new hub airport for London and the UK 9

Why the UK needs a new Only a new hub airport will be able Demand for flights is set to double hub airport to sustain the flights the economy Passenger demand is forecast to more Heathrow is 98.5 per cent full11 and needs, while mitigating the impact on than double by 205013, and the number is already losing passengers to rival the wider population. Without this, the of destinations participating in the airports with more capacity, for instance UK risks being left behind. global economy is growing rapidly. Amsterdam Schiphol, Frankfurt, Paris Charles de Gaulle and Dubai. Delays Heathrow’s passengers regularly (DfT) forecasts for growth at The UK economy is suffering as a result experience delays, with 60 per cent Heathrow if capacity is unconstrained 2011–2050 – research from Frontier Economics of arriving aircraft held in stacks while suggests that more than £1bn of waiting for a landing slot. Since 1991, trade is being lost every year because scheduled flight times from Amsterdam 200 of insufficient flight connections to Schiphol and Paris Charles de Gaulle 180 emerging economies alone. into Heathrow have increased from 60 to 90 minutes12 to account for this. 160 Heathrow’s route network already lags 140 behind those of its rivals, and the situation will only get worse. 120 100

Heathrow lacks the runway capacity to compete with its European rivals 80 Current Destinations 60 Current max Future max runway served 40 Airport Runways flights/hour flights/hour use (%) (June 2011) Passengers per annum (MPPA) Passengers Heathrow 2 87 87 98.5 192 20 Amsterdam 6 110 120 70 277 0 Paris (CDG) 4 114 120 (2015) 73.5 257 2011 2014 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2032 2035 2038 2041 2044 2050 Frankfurt 4 83 120 (2015) 74.5 291 Unconstrained demand at Heathrow Current throughput at Heathrow

Source: DfT UK aviation forecast, 2013

11 CAA Passenger Survey Data, 2011 12 A New Airport for London: Part 1 – The Case 13 DfT UK Air Passenger Demand and CO2 for New Capacity, Mayor of London, 2011 Forecasts, 2009 10 A new hub airport for London and the UK Economic benefits 11 for the UK

Why the hub must serve London A new hub airport for the airport is damaging the economic whole of the UK prospects of areas like Merseyside, A new hub airport will serve the the South West and . economic interests of the UK by providing access to world markets A new airport will ensure that the from across the country. Heathrow UK’s entrepreneurs and manufacturers has failed the regions and the lack can trade with the rest of the world, of connectivity to the country’s main regardless of where they are based.

Routes between Scottish cities such as Inverness and the UK’s The frequency of flights hub would be secured between Newcastle and on a long-term basis. London could increase if the Capital had a world-class hub

Cambridge’s hi-tech industries could could benefit develop new business Stuart Monk / Shutterstock.com from the UK increasing opportunities in fast- trade with new and growing cities that are emerging nations London is the only UK region with About one third of London’s not currently served the level of local demand that, when population was born overseas and direct from the UK combined with transfer passengers, many others have roots outside the could make frequent connections to UK. There are significant economic Stafford could be at the heart of a Tunbridge Wells new UK logistics and distribution hundreds of destinations across the benefits associated with people could benefit network connected to the hub from high-skill world viable. visiting friends and relatives in the airport by high-speed rail employment UK. This market, much of which is opportunities Rail services from Cardiff London and the South East have very long-haul, is heavily concentrated could access a new hub high concentrations of business that in the Capital. in around two hours, Businesses in Guildford could a similar time to have developed in response to the benefit from direct connections to Heathrow currently region’s aviation connectivity. many more global destinations 12 A new hub airport for London and the UK 13

Expanding Heathrow is Expansion would also have dire not the answer consequences for the hundreds of Competitors offer better connectivity to thousands of people living nearby. emerging global economies, especially in Asia. For example, Heathrow serves The history of Heathrow’s development only three destinations in mainland can be characterised as ‘just one more’ China. In contrast, Frankfurt serves four – a third runway would invariably lead and Amsterdam serves six. to calls for a fourth. The problem with the alternatives airlines need to be able to transport them A number of alternatives have been and their baggage quickly from one gate In recent years Heathrow has stopped Noisy neighbours proposed for solving the UK’s hub airport to another. This proposal would present direct flights to several UK cities and More than 766,000 people suffer capacity crisis, but none can match the considerable engineering and security now only flies to eight regional UK considerable noise disturbance from benefits of a new modern hub. challenges and still be less attractive destinations. Meanwhile, direct flights Heathrow14, which amounts to 28 than changing planes in a single location. to Amsterdam are available from per cent of those impacted by airport Expanding Gatwick and Stansted: 21 UK airports outside London. No noise in Europe15. The piecemeal addition of runways will High-speed rail: Rail will never be a wonder Schiphol increasingly boasts not achieve the connectivity benefits of total replacement for air travel, even of being the UK’s main hub airport. Studies have shown a significant the critical mass of flights in one location. on high-density, short-haul routes such relationship between night-time aircraft Heathrow will continue to serve as an as from London to . High- No room to expand noise exposure and increased risk of imperfect, capacity-constrained hub. speed rail could complement a hub Limited Heathrow expansion wouldn’t hypertension and cardiovascular disease, Gatwick and Stansted will stay focused airport by expanding its catchment area solve the capacity problem. A third as well as direct impacts of aircraft noise on no-frills short-haul and leisure routes for originating passengers, providing runway at Heathrow wouldn’t even be a on reading comprehension and recognition and will struggle to attract more than more connections and delivering viable ‘stop gap’ and, because it would memory. A five decibel increase in a handful of the long-haul frequencies extra capacity to the hub. Currently, a need to follow a similar planning process exposure to school-age children was that cannot be accommodated at maximum of 10 per cent of Heathrow’s to a new hub airport, it could not be seen to correspond to a two-month Heathrow. But without being able to air services could feasibly be provided opened much sooner. delay in reading age among UK pupils16. draw on significant transfer traffic - by a rail alternative. and with Heathrow full - emerging destinations such as Lima (Peru), Pune Regional airports: Growth at (India) and Tianjin (China) will remain regional airports would not replace unserved from London. the need for a fully functioning London 14 CAA Insight Note 2: Aviation Policy for hub. Regional airports can support the Environment, 2011 Linking existing airports to create routes to no more than a handful of 15 IBID ‘’: The so-called ‘virtual hub’ long-haul destinations. 16 The Effect of Nocturnal Aircraft Noise on Health: A Review of Recent Evidence, Barts model has not been achieved anywhere and the London School of Medicine, 2011 in the world. To attract passengers, 14 The Mayor’s 15 assessment criteria

To decide the best locations for a new Sufficient new road and rail capacity Applying the criteria the other five options include doing airport, TfL produced a set of criteria is integral to any airport option, and TfL has assessed the potential for 16 nothing or are versions of dispersed that has been used to compare and achieving a high public transport options across the South East. Eleven capacity - such as adding additional assess a number of potential sites in access mode share is crucial are at single sites (see map below), single runways at Gatwick and Stansted. the South East. These criteria were • Environmental: the impact of developed in conjunction with a peer aviation on local communities and review panel of independent experts17 the natural environment must be and were published in March following minimised if any expansion of a public consultation. aviation is to be sustainable • Deliverability: any new aviation The criteria are as follows: capacity must be capable of • Economic: a new airport must being delivered. This must take support regional and national into account likely planning and economic objectives, and maximise construction issues, the commercial the economic and social benefits and economic case and the ability to for the UK secure funding and finance • Airport infrastructure: facilities must meet the needs of airlines, In May 2013 the passengers and freight, and be published its own set of sift criteria to competitive with the best airports assess proposals to address the long- in the world term capacity options. These are very • Airspace: safety is paramount, so similar to those adopted by TfL on any increase in aviation capacity behalf of the Mayor. must comply with current and future airspace regulations • Surface access: passengers, staff and freight must be able to access a new airport quickly and efficiently.

17 Details of the Peer Review Group can be found at www.newairportforlondon.com 16 A new hub airport for London and the UK A new hub airport 17 for London

The key findings of this work are: in and around the Thames Estuary Where to build a new hub airport A new hub airport would re-establish • A single four-runway airport could present a significant biodiversity Following the assessment of the 16 London as the world’s best-connected facilitate optimal hub operations, and habitats challenge, but there is options outlined on page 15, TfL has city. It would feature: and provide the necessary precedent for how mitigation and identified three strong locations for a conditions for airlines to put on provision of alternative habitats new hub airport, all situated east of • State-of-the-art facilities enabling the routes that will meet the UK’s might be achieved the Capital. These are: Stansted, Inner seamless transfers and a smooth economic needs. Options which • Development of any option will Estuary or Outer Estuary. arrival and departure experience involve dispersing new capacity require significant, multi-billion • Spare capacity to maximise across multiple sites will not be pound investment in both the The Mayor will submit detailed resilience to delays and disruption able to do this airport and surface access links technical assessments on each of these • Fast and efficient surface access • All of the options (with the exception options to the Airports Commission to London and further afield of doing nothing) would require a A report detailing the full assessment on 19 July explaining why he believes wholesale reconfiguration of airspace of each location against TfL’s criteria they offer the most potential. The across the South East will be published alongside the assessments will be published on • Road and rail links offering the Mayor’s submissions to the www.newairportforlondon.com right capacity and connectivity Airports Commission on 19 July. to support a new airport can be achieved at all locations, although Visit www.newairportforlondon.com locations further away from London to read or download the report. perform less well on grounds of Stansted higher costs and longer journey times to the UK’s main economic and population centres • Options involving the expansion at Heathrow perform very badly on environmental grounds, particularly noise and air quality impacts. Options Inner Estuary Outer Estuary 18 A new hub airport for London and the UK 19

The Mayor’s proposal for a be served by an extension to the new hub airport at Stansted proposed 2 scheme. • The site would be on agricultural Enhancements to the M25 and Crossrail land to the northeast of the existing M11 would be necessary Crossrail 2 Extension and Local Rail Connections airport. The current terminal • The hub could also be connected building and runway could be by the proposed route of the retained. This would mean existing (HS2) line allowing operations could continue during through-services from the Midlands Harlow the construction of a new hub and Northern as well as to • It would be compatible with the transport hub y

Government objectives to deliver in west London Valle

ee thousands of jobs and growth • It could be quicker to get to than L across London, Essex, and the Heathrow for a number of key Cambridge to Peterborough locations including important Link to Proposed HS2 Link to Existing HS1 Riverside business corridor. Investment in London centres and areas of growth West London Central infrastructure could also support and regeneration such as Canary

much-needed housing growth Wharf and the Lea Valley, as well as Gateway • The number of people affected by other major cities across the UK noise could be less than five per cent Heathrow

of those who would be affected by an South airport of a similar size at Heathrow West • A new high-speed rail line could transport passengers from central London to the airport in less than half an hour, and the airport could 20 A new hub airport for London and the UK 21

The Mayor’s proposal for a in infrastructure could also support the high-speed rail line to northern to the Old Oak Common transport new hub airport in the inner much-needed housing growth Europe would also be possible. hub in west London Thames Estuary • The number of people affected by • Enhancements to the M25 would • It could be quicker to get to than • It would be located on agricultural noise could be less than five per cent be necessary, but the highway Heathrow for a number of vital land next to the Thames Estuary in of those who would be affected by an connections could be compatible locations, including important the northeast corner of the Isle of airport of a similar size at Heathrow with the Government’s current London centres and areas of growth Grain. Some of the site would be on • A new high-speed rail line could aspirations for a new lower and regeneration such as Canary reclaimed land transport passengers from central Thames crossing Wharf and Stratford, as well as other • It would be compatible with London to the airport in less than • It could also be connected by the major cities across the country Government objectives to deliver half an hour and the airport could proposed HS2 route, allowing • There would be impacts on a thousands of jobs and growth across be served by an extension to through-services from the Midlands number of habitats and designated London, Essex and Kent. Investment Crossrail from Abbey Wood. A link to and as well as areas, but there is a precedent for successful mitigation and provision of alternative habitats

Link to Proposed HS2 Link to Existing HS1 Proposed Location of Thames Crossing London Gateway Port

Riverside West London Central Gateway

Heathrow

South West

Medway 22 A new hub airport for London and the UK 23

The Mayor’s proposal for a • Building an airport in this location speed rail line to northern Europe the Old Oak Common transport new hub airport in the outer would mean that no areas of would also be possible hub in west London Thames Estuary population would be affected by • Enhancements to the M25 would • Journey times from central London • It would be built on a man-made excessive noise. This is the only be necessary, but the highway would be similar to those for island in a shallow part of the option that would have a connections could be compatible Heathrow and quicker for a number Thames Estuary zero-noise footprint with the Government’s current of key locations in east London, • It would be compatible with • A new high-speed rail line could aspirations for a new lower including important growth and Government objectives to deliver transport passengers from central Thames crossing regeneration centres such as Canary thousands of jobs and growth across London to the airport in just over • It could also be connected to the Wharf and Stratford, as well as other London, Essex and Kent. Investment half an hour, and the airport could proposed HS2 route, allowing major cities across the UK in infrastructure could also support be served by an extension to the through-services from the Midlands • It presents a significant biodiversity much-needed housing growth Crossrail line. A link to the high- and northern England as well as to and habitats challenge, but there is a precedent for successful mitigation and provision of alternative habitats

Link to Existing HS1 Link to Proposed HS2 London Gateway Port Proposed Location of Riverside West London Central Gateway

Heathrow

South West

Medway 24 A new hub airport for London and the UK 25

The economic impacts of a In the local area surrounding the hub The future of Heathrow By 2050 London’s population will new hub airport airport up to 134,000 extra jobs will With a new hub airport located east have topped 10 million. A significant be created generating more than of London, the existing airport at reduction in the size of Heathrow’s The Costs £16bn worth of benefits each year by Heathrow would need to relocate. operations would give rise to a Upon opening in 2029, a new hub 2050. Up to an additional 138,000 fantastic opportunity to deliver airport with capacity to handle 90 catalytic jobs would be created in a While some workers at Heathrow desperately needed new homes and million passengers per annum would corridor running from the airport to would relocate to take up jobs at jobs for hundreds of thousands of cost approximately £20bn. central London and in surrounding the new airport, many others would people on a site that is of a similar development zones which offer a range find new work on a newly developed scale to an entire London borough. This would then be expanded in order of unique locations for investment. Heathrow site. This process would be to meet projected demand for 180 properly planned over a timeframe of West London is one of the most million passengers by 2050 at an The construction of the airport and approximately 15 years. dynamic, economically vibrant and additional cost of around £10bn. The the road and rail links would generate accessible areas of the Capital. It has road and rail links needed to serve the up to 30,000 new construction jobs the potential to attract thousands of airport and maximise beneficial impacts worth about £1.6bn a year in local jobs in firms large and small, in many would cost approximately £20bn. economic benefits. different sectors.

The Rewards Analyis undertaken for TfL18 shows connectivity benefits to UK businesses resulting in new opportunities and productivity improvements of £7bn a year – half a per cent increase in the UK’s annual output.

At a national level a new hub airport would support more than 375,000 jobs by 2050 and result in a cumulative increase of up to £742bn on the value of goods and services produced in the UK.

18 Ramboll and Oxford Economics, July 2013 Other formats and languages 26 A new hub airport for London and the UK For a large print, Braille, disc, sign language video or audio-tape version 27 of this document, please contact us at the address below:

Public Liaison Unit Greater London Authority Telephone 020 7983 4100 City Hall Minicom 020 7983 4458 Next steps over the next two years to ensure The Queen’s Walk www.london.gov.uk In December 2013 the Airports that the right decisions and More London Commission will deliver an recommendations are made based London SE1 2AA interim report setting out which on robust, credible evidence. locations will be taken forward for You will need to supply your name, your postal address and state the further development. Their final For further information on the Mayor’s format and title of the publication you require. recommendation to the Government Aviation Programme, please visit will be made in the summer of 2015. www.newairportforlondon.com or If you would like a summary of this document in your language, please contact [email protected] phone the number or contact us at the address above. The Mayor is calling on the Commission’s work to inform a National Policy Have your say Chinese Hindi Statement. The necessary powers – most To find out more about the Airports likely delivered through a Hybrid Bill Commission and to submit your views, – could be in place by 2020, at which visit the Airports Commission section point construction could begin. A new at www.gov.uk/government Vietnamese Bengali hub airport could be open by 2029.

The Mayor and TfL will continue to support the work of the Airports Commission and the Government Greek Urdu

Who What When Mayor of London Publication of further analysis on the Mayor’s Autumn 2013 Turkish Arabic preferred locations for a new hub

Airports Commission Interim report December 2013

Airports Commission Final report Summer 2015 Punjabi Gujarati 28 A new hub airport for London and the UK