MALAWI DROUGHT 2015-2016 POST-DISASTER NEEDS ASSESSMENT (PDNA) MALAWI DROUGHT 2015–2016 Table of Contents
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MALAWI DROUGHT 2015-2016 POST-DISASTER NEEDS ASSESSMENT (PDNA) MALAWI DROUGHT 2015–2016 Table of Contents I. Foreword vi II. Foreword vii III. Acknowledgements viii IV. List of Figures x V. List of Tables xii VI. List of Acronyms xiv VII. Executive Summary xvii 1 Introduction 1 2 Country Profile 3 3 The 2015-2016 Drought 5 3.1 Overview 5 3.2 Rainfall Analysis 6 3.3 Humanitarian Consequences of the Drought 8 3.4 Immediate Response 9 4 Undertaking the PDNA – Approach and Methodology 11 5 Sector Analysis 17 5.1 Agriculture 17 5.2 Food Security 20 5.3 Water 21 5.3.1 Irrigation 21 5.3.2 Water Resources 23 5.3.3 Water Supply and Sanitation (WASH) 24 5.4 Social Protection 25 5.5 Health 26 5.6 Nutrition 28 5.7 Education 30 5.8 Environment 31 5.9 Industry and Commerce 33 5.10 Transport 34 5.11 Energy 34 6 Macroeconomic Analysis 37 6.1 Economic Context 37 6.2 Impact of the Drought on the Macroeconomic Indicators 39 6.2.1 Effect on Gross Domestic Product 39 6.2.2 Effects on Inflation 40 6.2.3 Effects on the External Position 41 6.2.4 Effects on the Fiscal Position 41 7 Human and Social Impact Analysis & Gender Recommendations 43 7.1 Introduction 43 7.2 Methodology 44 7.3 Socio-economic Impact 45 7.3.1 Impact on Livelihoods & Food Security 45 7.3.2 Coping Strategies and Livelihood Adaptations 47 7.4 Social Relations and Cohesion 49 7.5 Community Needs for Drought Management 50 7.6 Gender Analysis and Mainstreaming Recommendations 50 7.6.1 Gender Analysis 50 7.6.2 Gender Mainstreaming Recommendations 51 8 Drought Recovery Strategy 55 8.1 Guiding Principles for Recovery 56 8.2 Strategic Pillars of Recovery 57 8.2.1 Increasing Productivity in Agriculture & Irrigation Development 58 8.2.2 Improving Food Security, Nutrition and Health Services 58 8.2.3 Enhancing People’s Capacity to Withstand Risk and Building Resilience 58 8.2.4 Strengthening Water Resources Management and Enhancing Water Supply 59 8.2.5 Strengthening Disaster Risk Reduction and Drought Resilience 59 8.2.6 Integration of Gender Concerns into All Recovery Interventions 59 9 Disaster Risk Reduction, Risk Financing and Drought Resilience 61 9.1 Mainstreaming and Adequate Resourcing of the DRR Agenda 61 MALAWI PDNA | iv 9.2 Performance of the DRR System & Lessons Learnt from the Drought Event 62 9.3 DRR Strategy for Facilitating Resilient and Sustainable Drought Recovery 64 9.4 Disaster Risk Financing 65 9.4.1 Overview of International Risk Financing Options 65 9.4.2 Current State of Risk Financing in Malawi 67 9.4.3 Suggestions for Moving Forward on Risk Financing 68 10 The Way Forward 71 10.1 Key Stakeholders 71 10.2 Institutional Framework 71 10.3 Geographical Coverage and Timeline 72 10.4 Next Steps in Follow-up to the PDNA 72 Annex I: Drought Recovery Action Plan 73 Annex II: Detailed Sector Reports 81 Agriculture 83 Food Security 97 Irrigation 103 Water Resources 115 Water Supply and Sanitation 121 Social Protection 127 Health 137 Nutrition 147 Education 157 Environment 163 Industry and Commerce 171 Transport 177 Energy 181 Disaster Risk Reduction, Risk Financing and Drought Resilience 187 Annex III - Methodology to Calculate Impact of Drought on GDP 216 MALAWI PDNA | v I | Foreword Government of Malawi The dramatic increase in the frequency, intensity and impact of natural disasters in recent decades has been well documented. But few could have predicted what has befallen Malawi in the last two years. A once-in-500-years flood in 2015, which impacted more than 1.1 million people, has now been followed by a devastating drought that is expected to leave at least 6.5 million people food insecure during the 2016/17 season. The Government of Malawi (GoM) has taken immediate steps to provide emergency relief to millions of its citizens in collaboration with its domestic and international partners. And with an eye toward building future resilience, the GoM also asked the World Bank, United Nations and European Union to support a comprehensive Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) to assess the impact of the drought and identify a multi-sectoral recovery strategy aimed at building long-term resilience to future risks. As you will read in this report, the drought has caused damages and losses across a number of sectors totaling US$ 365.9 million and requiring recovery interventions estimated at US$ 500.2 million. Just over half of the total recovery needs are associated with the food security sector. As Malawi knows all too well from recent experience, natural hazards cannot be prevented. However, their impacts can be minimized through a multi-sectoral approach to strengthening resilience to these types of shocks. We look forward to working with our international partners to leverage the findings of the PDNA and the resulting support for the recovery strategy contained in this report to help Malawi take important steps toward breaking the cycle of food insecurity. Saulos Klausse Chilima, PhD Vice President of the Republic of Malawi and Minister Responsible for Disaster Management Affairs MALAWI PDNA | vi II | Foreword World Bank, United Nations and European Union The projections of the Malawi Vulnerability Assessment Committee released in June 2016 are overwhelming. A minimum of 6.5 million Malawians – 39 percent of the population – will not have enough food in the 2016-17 consumption period because of the ongoing drought provoked by an unusually strong El Niño effect. When the Government of Malawi asked the World Bank, United Nations and European Union to support a comprehensive assessment of the drought, we immediately joined a team of dozens of Government staff across 17 sectors working on the Post-Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA). In fewer than three weeks, the PDNA team sifted through data, travelled to some of the most impacted areas to discuss recovery strategies at district and community level, and validated findings using innovative remote sensing technology. What emerges is a PDNA that goes beyond determining the damages, losses and resulting needs; it aims for a multi-sectoral, phased recovery strategy focused on strengthening resilience to future disasters. It is our hope that the recommendations in this PDNA can inform efforts by the Government of Malawi and its many partners to break the cycle of disasters and the food insecurity that too often results. Amakobe Sande Laura Kullenberg UN Resident Coordinator a.i. World Bank Country Manager Lluis Navarro Head of Cooperation, EU Delegation MALAWI PDNA | vii III | Acknowledgements The Malawi Drought Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) was made possible through an intensive collaborative effort led by the Government of Malawi and supported by the World Bank, the United Nations and the European Union. The PDNA was prepared under the overall leadership of the Ministry of Finance, Economic Planning and Development (MoFEPD) and the Dept. of Disaster Management Affairs (DoDMA). Nearly 100 national and international experts collaborated intensively to complete the PDNA, including the following sector ministries, departments and agencies: Ministry of Agriculture, Irrigation and Water Development; Ministry of Education, Science and Technology; MoFEPD; Ministry of Health; Ministry of Industry, Trade and Tourism; Ministry of Lands, Housing and Urban Development; Ministry of Transport and Public Works; Dept. of Climate Change and Meteorological Services; DoDMA; Dept. of Energy Affairs; Dept. of Engineering Services; Dept. of Environmental Affairs; Dept. of Fisheries; Dept. of Irrigation; Dept. of Livestock Development; Dept. of Nutrition, HIV & AIDS; Dept. of Surveys; Dept. of Water Resources; Dept. of Water Supply; Local Development Fund; National Aquaculture Centre; National Spatial Data Centre; National Statistics Office; Poverty Reduction and Social Protection Division Support for the assessment was provided by a team of technical experts from the World Bank and the United Nations System —UNDP, UNICEF, UN Women, WFP, FAO and WHO—in addition to other partners including the European Union, Catholic Education Commission, Malawi Red Cross Society, OXFAM and World Vision International. The Government of Malawi would like to acknowledge the financial support of the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery. This PDNA was undertaken with strategic guidance from Bella Bird, Laura Kullenberg, Idrissa Dia and Christoph Pusch (World Bank), Mia Seppo (United Nations) and Lluis Navarro (European Union). The core technical team for this assessment consisted of Chiara Mellucci (UNDP), Ayaz Parvez, Francis Samson Nkoka, Veronique Morin, Atishay Abbhi, Alexander Agosti, Diane Baik, Allen Baumgardner- Zuzik, Carl Dingel, Ivan Drabek, Boyenge Isasi Dieng, Matilda Mtambo, Tamara Mwafongo, Chamwisangah Msachi and Chalida Chararnsuk (World Bank). Courage Services Inc. provided remote sensing and mapping support. The following team members contributed towards the drafting of the sector annexes and provided valuable inputs pertaining to various sectors and cross cutting issues: Agriculture: Time Hapana Fatch, Blessings Botha, and Valens Mwumvaneza (World Bank), Samuel Khosa, Tasira Mwaupighu, Enock Matale, Precious Chitsulo (Ministry of Agriculture), William Ngwira, Gift Kamwamba (Dept. of Livestock Development), Hassib Sainan (Fisheries Research Issues), Mary Khozomba (OXFAM), Dickxie Kampani (MFERP), Luis Amaya Ortiz (FAO) Water: Josses Mugabi, (World Bank), Chisomo Kumbuyo, Eshiperancar Kampini, and James Chikungu (Dept. of Irrigation), Aaron Mapsere (Dept. of Water Supply), Gertrude Makuti (Dept. of Sanitation), Laison Mseu, Patrick