PAKISTAN

1-15 MARCH 2021

BI-WEEKLY REPORT Table of Contents

Map - Key Events p3

Summary p4

Politics & Economy p5

Civil Society p7

Security p8

Environment & Infrastructure p10

Health & Medical p11

Upcoming Events p12

Sources & Links p13

Spearfish Services & Events p14

About Spearfish p15 MAP- KEY EVENTS

3 SUMMARY

• reported, on 4 March, the current year’s highest Executive Summary: number of COVID-19 deaths in a single day as the total casualty figure surpassed 13,000. With the resurgence of cases Positive COVID-19 cases per day had a twofold increase in the last 7 days. The in Pakistan, the government have reimposed restrictions on current active cases are 582,528, indicating a sharp rise in the last two weeks. gathering and working from home (50% work in the offices). Markets and Shopping malls will remain closed on Saturdays The Pakistan Civil Aviation Authority (PCAA) has amended its country list and Sundays. concerning inbound travel to Pakistan by adding nine countries to Category C. There are now 15 countries in Category C including the UK, South Africa, Portugal, • PACAA has issued an updated travel advisory on 1 March Peru, Netherlands, Tanzania, Botswana, Columbia, Comoros, Ghana, Ireland, 2021. Kenya, Zambia, Brazil and Mozambique. This notification is truly not followed at the airport, as citizens from category C countries can entry with additional COVID-19 • Pakistani health officials reported more than 250 cases of tests at the immigration desk. dengue fever in southern provinces (Jan. 1-Feb. 13); compared Unidentified men shot and injured two policeman in the capital, poitin to a to 106 cases reported over a similar period in 2020. The most reorganization of terrorism in the country. Conversely, the army had killed five affected provinces are (180 cases), followed by terrorists, adding that the forces are active to fight the threat. (72 cases). The security situation across the country remains stable without any major • PDM plans to hold further anti-government rallies across occurrence. Militants are likely to remain focused on Balochistan and KPK Province through March. province, whereby they seek to take advantage of all opportunities to attack. Security forces will continue counterintelligence operations against the militants to • Prime Minister Imran Khan would seek a confidence vote in the curb the possibility of attacks. National Assembly in a counter move to limit the opposition’s ability to challenge legitimacy of his government An explosion on 11 March, killed at least two people and injures five others near Basheer Chowk, in . DISCLAIMER The information in this report is provided ‘as seen’ without any guarantee, express or implied, including but not limited to the implied warranties of merchantability, fitness for a particular purpose, or noninfringement. Spearfish gives no guarantee that the information contained in this report will be timely or error-free. In no event shall spearfish be liable for any damages whatsoever, including any direct, indirect, special, consequential or any other damages, 4 arising out of, or in connection with, the use of, or reliance on, information available within this report. Use of this information is at your own risk and you agree to the limitations and disclaimers provided here. POLITICS & ECONOMY

COVID-19 continues to impact national politics and The government made substantial gains in the recent senate elections but economy with the surge of a third wave. suffered a major setback as members of opposition party makes way to become the senate chairman. Political instability remains a factor of concern. Protests and demonstrations associated with political matters have PDM an umbrella alliance of 11 opposition parties plan to hold further anti- the potential to create social distress and civil unrest. government rallies across Punjab Province through March. The PDM will decide Politics in Pakistan is always unpredictable; this the future course of action after mutual consultation with all the members. PTI uncertainty is a factor of economic instability. The to review PDM movement and take important decision. Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) and other political /religious parties continue to protest government policies, The government decided not to increase petroleum prices for the next 15 days. rampant inflation and the poor economy in the country. The Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) workers staged a protest Protests and demonstrations have become a regular demonstration in front of Gujrat Press Club against the PTI government’s pattern. Most of them are anti-government in nature, with policies, such protest is very likely to continue in coming days. student issues, utility/fuel shortages, economy, unemployment and political grievances as the most The joint opposition announced, on Saturday, its decision to move a no- common grievances. confidence motion against the National Assembly speaker.

Pakistan Future Senators sworn in on Friday, 12 March Pakistan Democratic movement (PDM) will meet under the chairmanship of and ruling government party, PTI have won chairman and PDM Fazul Rehman, to decide the future strategy to oust PTI- led government. deputy chairman seats in the senate. He stated that workers will not arrive in for a short stay rather will sit and protest against the government till their demands are met. Pakistani PM Khan wins vote of confidence amid opposition boycott. Clashes were reported during the voting process.

5 POLITICS & ECONOMY

MACRO- ECONOMIC OUTLOOK. The China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has been an economic game changer for both China and Pakistan. The economy should rebound in FY 2021 as the impact of the pandemic gradually fades and domestic demand recovers. Moreover, structural The 14th summit of the 10-member Economic Cooperation Organisation reforms should boost investment, while foreign demand is expected to pick (ECO) was held virtually on Thursday, 4 March, to deliberate prospects of up in tandem with the global economic recovery. Nonetheless, mounting enhancing regional cooperation in the aftermath of the COVID-19 debt, uncertainty over the evolution of the virus and geopolitical tensions pandemic. represent an obstacle. Focus Economics panelists project growth of 1.5% in FY 2021, which is down 0.1 percentage points from last month’s estimate, and 4.0% in FY 2022.

Pakistan’s economy suffered in 2020. The GDP growth rate for fiscal year 2019–20 was –0.4 per cent — the first time it fell negative in seven decades. Per capita income fell from US$1625 to US$1325. COVID-19 closures and lockdowns to limit the spread of the virus are also contributing to growing unemployment and poverty.

The tertiary sector contributes to 53.1% of the GDP and employs more than one-third of the workforce (35%). The IT sector is growing rapidly, contributing around 1% of GDP and accounting for 3.5% of exports. Remittances from working abroad represent a considerable GDP per capita in Pakistan is expected to reach 1130.00 USD by the end financial income for the country. of 2020, according to Trading Economics global macro models and Production shortfalls push cotton price to 11-year high, as it traded at analysts' expectations. In the long-term, GDP per capita is projected to Rs12,000/maund, while its spot rate moved up to Rs11,700/maund. Prices trend around 1190.00 USD in 2021 and 1250.00 USD in 2022, according to also remained higher in the international market. our econometric models.

6 CIVIL SOCIETY

During the review period, protests/demonstrations by civil The Women's March is an annually-held social/political demonstration, organized in various Society/political parties were stage Islamabad (08) (27) cities of Pakistan including Lahore, Hyderabad, , Karachi, Islamabad and Peshawar Karachi (16) Quetta (00) Peshawar (09) and Gilgit Baltistan/AJK to observe International Women's Day. Thousands of women marched across Pakistan last (15) Monday. Although considered peaceful, clashes. The 2021 organizers invited the government to “sit and Talk” with them as their demands put forth a year earlier have • Around 25-30 Electronic Print media employees staged a still not been met. protest in front of Karachi Press Club, Saddar Town against forced termination from employment and late hearing of their Other points to note include: petition in the supreme court. • Since the international development agencies continue to support and empower the Civil • Approximately 500 activists of Qaumi Watan Political Party Society Organizations in enhancing development outcomes. staged a peaceful demonstration at Aman Chowk to protest • The role of Civil Societies has been recognized by intellectuals and International consumer goods price increases. development organizations. • Farmers demonstrated as the revenue department team • Many of the methods developed for creating and maintaining a strong civil society have visited their lands for the mega Ravi Riverfront Urban been pioneered in Pakistan Development Project. A land revenue department employee • Pakistan has experienced a significant increase in the number of demonstrations was attacked while others took cover in a near-by rest house throughout the country protesting various political, social, economic and other issues. at Kala Khatai Road. • Civil society is an emerging arena for social and political change in Pakistan.

Hundreds of Polio workers protested outside the World Health Organization (WHO) office in Islamabad's Chak Shahzad area (4 March). The demonstration began after talks failed with WHO officials to reinstate around 850 contract workers whose employment ended after their contracts expired on 28 Feb. Organizers said they would continue the action until officials address their demand.

7 SECURITY

Pakistan continues to face multiple sources of internal and external During the review period security forces conducted successful intelligence- conflict. While incidences of domestic terrorism have reduced, in part based operation in north/South Waziristan (KPK), arresting members of banned due to measures taken by the state. outfit; the proactive action by security forces is likely to continue to retain writ of the government and ensure law & order in the area. During the review period the security situation remains calm. However, political and civil unrest, kidnapping and crime represent Terrorism is a key threat, especially in parts of (NMD) and potential security risks. The operations conducted by the Security Balochistan (costal belt). Counter insurgency operations are in place across the Forces continue to reduce the frequency of and capability of militant affected locations eliminating and restraining militant activities in both the attacks. There is the risk of separatists staging assaults or provinces. Government installation, building, markets , religious places, security improvised explosive device attacks against government installations, forces , NGO workers, and infrastructure and likely militant's target of interest. security forces/Convoy/check posts, electric pylons, and bridges in Balochistan and Sindh. Religiously-motivated/Separatist violence has a significant impact on the security of Balochistan Province specially in CEPC routes. Forces are likely to Both foreign visitors and domestic nationals face the threat of continue their operations and militants are expected to blowback with more kidnapping across Pakistan, which is particularly high in KPK and attacks. Balochistan. Abductions can be politically or financially motivated and have created a nexus between terrorist and organised criminal Blasphemy allegations and ensuing violence: There is a significantly different groups. The threat of kidnap is higher in the areas bordering response from the public, press, and government when it comes to violence . linked to accusations of blasphemy levelled at a member of an Islamic sect or a Kidnap-related events were reported in different parts of Pakistan minority faith. Accusations, which are often falsified, routinely expand into (Balochistan/Karachi) during the monitoring period, highlighting the violence targeting an entire community. This is an organised criminal practice in widespread threat posed by the crime. Militants and anti-Separatist Pakistan. However, blasphemy attacks do not elicit the same kind of security groups remain as sources of insecurity in KPK and Balochistan response as a militant attack or regular criminal activity. regions.

8 SECURITY

During the review period, police in several targeted raids apprehended 1,222 Cases of sexual assault were reported during the review period; reported alleged criminals involved in different criminal activities in Karachi, Interior separately in (01), (1), (1), (1) and Sindh, Punjab, KPK and Balochistan Provinces. (1)

Incidences of street crimes were recorded in Karachi (34), Punjab (258), Firing incidents: One policeman was killed and two others injured including Islamabad (16) and Balochistan (21), KPK (09) and GB/AJK (1); highlighting a sub-inspector in a firing incident on a police party on patrol in the federal the widespread nature of the risks and the failing control capacity of the capital Islamabad. In another incident a SHO (Station House Officer) was existing security arrangement. The incidents engendered reactions by shot dead when he was coming out of his home in the area of Rawalpindi various residents further putting pressure on the government. Crime is at by armed men. rampant in Karachi city where burglaries are frequent in Lahore city. During the review period, total IED (34) attacks were reported Karachi (01), • Clashes/IED in KPK Balochistan (02) and KPK (02), Armed attack (22) were reported in KPK and • 06 March, North Waziristan, IED: A Petrol Station under-construction Balochistan. was partially damaged by an IED detonated by unknown perpetrators in the Natural area of Mir Ali Tehsil. An intelligence-based operation in Hangu, KPK on 2 March apprehended • 06 March, North Waziristan, ARMED CLASH: Eight known TTP terrorists those responsible for killing a renown religious prayer leader along with his including three commanders were killed and a soldier wounded in son and a student in Islamabad. They were killed outside of their home. clashes between HG SF and terrorists during two IBOs in the Ditta Khel Police found out to be some personal enmity among the families. area. • 06 March, South Waziristan, ARMED CLASH: Two known TTP terrorists INCIDENTS GRAPH: were killed in an armed clash with HG SF in the Shaktoe area. Islamabad Sindh Punjab Balochistan KPK • 07 March, Bannu, ARREST. Police arrested two known TTP terrorists in a Arrest 239 791 13 167 12 Hazard/Warning 10 18 23 14 15 targeted raid in the Bakka Khel area. Crime 16 34 258 21 09 • 11 March, Karachi IED Blast: An explosion near Basheer Chowk in Terrorism 0 0 0 12 05 northeast Karachi killed at least two people and wounded about five Demo 08 16 27 0 09 others. Threat Alert 0 1 0 0 0

9 ENVIRONMENT & INFRASTRUCTURE

Roads: With the start of the spring season fog density on motorways and Natural Catastrophe: Pakistan is subject to seismic activity. Earthquakes can Grand trunk roads are reduced, and shall not hinder intra province travels. occur without warning and a large-scale disaster could quickly overwhelm response capabilities. Road traffic accidents have become common in Urban and rural area due • 07 March, Mirpur, HAZARD/WARNINGS: An earthquake of 4.7 magnitudes to reckless driving, negligence of traffic rules and road conditions. Non- was observed in Mirpur City and its surroundings. However, no loss was availability of double roads is a significant contributory factor to RTA. reported. During the reporting period, 77 People were killed and 191 injured. The risk is high in Punjab and Balochistan due to prevailing fog, traffic Environmental issues in Pakistan include air pollution, water pollution, noise violations, over speeding… pollution, climate change, pesticide misuse, soil erosion, natural disasters, desertification, and flooding. According to the latest global environment Railway accident: Train accidents are common. Successive performance index (EPI) ranking Pakistan is in the list of countries which suffer governments have paid little attention to improving the poorly maintained from poor air quality. The climatic changes and global warming are most alarming signal system and ageing tracks. issues risking millions of lives across country. The major reasons of these • A trail derailed between the Rohri and Sangi stations in southern environmental issues are carbon emission, increasing populations, and Sindh province, killing one and injuring other 40 people. This caused deforestation. a temporary suspension of railway traffic in both directions. Last month, at least 18 people, including women and children, were killed Pakistan is faced with serious challenges of environmental pollution, land when a passenger train collided with a bus at a crossing in southern degradation, water,and air pollution. Freshwater/Industrial pollution is mostly Pakistan. unchecked and may get worse unless economic activity is underpinned with sustainable development. Weather Updates: The Meteorological department warned that several areas are to receive snow and rainfall in the coming weeks, including The overall air quality index average ( AQI) in Pakistan is 156. Kashmir, GB, Dir, Swat, Lahore. Heavy rainfall may trigger landslides in KP, GB, and Kashmir.

10 HEALTH & MEDICAL CV19 spread has led to stress on critical facilities. As a result, the federal has gradually improved over time. Currently, 92% of the rural population and government is supporting the federating units with extra resources to hospitals in 100% of the urban population have access to health services. Such improvement has been a direct major cities across the country, to allow an increased patient load. Federal Minister result of Pakistan meeting the MDGs. Despite measures to increase the quality of healthcare facilities, Asad Umar has confirmed that the third wave of Covid-19 has started in Pakistan and most of the population prefers to consult private doctors and practitioners. attributed the rising number of cases to the virus' UK strain. Following is the list of top 15 health issues in Pakistan: After the country reported an alarming rise in coronavirus cases, the National 1 – Malaria. The majority of people living in slums suffer from Malaria. ... Command and Operation Centre (NCOC) on Monday has decided to revisit its "school 2 – Tuberculosis. ... opening modalities.“ They were expected to reopen from March 15. However, a 3 – Dengue Fever. ... decision on this has not been announced yet. 4 – Cancer. ... 5 – Ischemic Heart Disease. ... The health care delivery system in Pakistan consists of public and private sectors. ... 6 – Stroke. . The state provides healthcare through a three-tiered healthcare delivery system and a 7 – . ... range of public health interventions. 8 – Hepatitis – Top 15 health issues in Pakistan.

Pakistan crossed another grim milestone on Monday as the national COVID-19 death Pakistani health officials reported more than 250 cases of dengue fever in southern provinces, toll crossed the 13,573-mark amid calls for procuring vaccines for the general public. Pakistan, Jan. 1-Feb. 13, compared to 106 cases reported over a similar period in 2020. The most affected provinces are Sindh (180 cases), followed by Balochistan (72 cases). This represents the Pakistan has raised the issue of fake COVID-19 vaccines at a UN forum and urged the most recent data available as of March 1. international community to work together to prevent the production and distribution of such products by criminal elements. Pakistan can improve the healthcare by control , increase literacy rate, increase health budget, control corruption in public health projects, regionalization of Healthcare services, and Status of COVID 19 cases in Pakistan. (1-15 March) promote , proper check on quackery and exchange of human resource. ZONE CONFIRMED CASES ACTIVE CASES DEATHS RECOVERI ES A common misconception is that healthcare services in the public sector are free of charge to ICT 48,081 3,403 526 44,152 Pakistani citizens. This is not the case, as 78% of the population continues to pay for healthcare out of SI N DH 261,411 4,240 4,458 252,713 their own pockets PUNJAB 186,659 10,195 5,769 170,695 Pfizer vaccine 97% effective against symptomatic coronavirus infection. KPK 76,104 3,290 2,159 70,655 BALOCHISTAN 19,220 137 202 18,881 GILGIT BALTISTAN 4,961 2 103 4,856 AJK 11,017 771 320 9,926

11 UPCOMING EVENTS

Significant Dates and Forecast for February 2021: Significant Dates and Forecast for 2021:

• PDM protest of anti-government rallies are anticipated in coming days. • International Conferences in Pakistan in 2021. (https://conferencealert.com/pakistan.php) • PDM to set out on long March towards Islamabad on Friday 26 March. • Kashmir Solidarity Day in Pakistan in 2021 • TLP (Tehreek Labaik Pakistan) scheduled protest of TLP on 16 Feb 2021 has been postponed to 20 April, in case of inaction by the Government on • 23 March - World Meteorological Day. the French blasphemy issue. • 23 March Yaum-e-Pakistan or Pakistan Resolution Day, also Republic Day. • Pakistan will host World Environment Day in June 2021 in partnership with the UN Environment Programme (UNEP). • Eid-ul-Fitr Holiday 13 May-16 May 2021

• Pakistan: Transport workers plan strike across Khyber Pakhtunkhwa • Eid al-Adha Holiday 20 July- 22 July 2021 Province Tuesday, 16 March. • Independence Day 14 August 2021

• Ashura Holiday 18 August

• Chelum 28 September 2021

• Quaid-e-Azam Day 25 December 2021

12 SOURCES & LINKS

• https://covid.gov.pk/ • UNDSS Pakistan • https://www.focus-economics.com/countries/pakistan • https://www.garda.com/crisis24/news-alerts/418626/pakistan-opposition-parties-to-continue-holding-rallies-in-multiple- locationsthrough-january-update-2 • https://profit.pakistantoday.com.pk/2021/01/11/dense-fog-disrupts-road-traffic-across-country/ • https://conferencealert.com/pakistan.php • https://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/pakistan/2021 • https://www.timeanddate.com/holidays/pakistan/2021 • https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2020/3/8/pakistans-womens-march-shaking-patriarchy-to-its-core • https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2020/3/8/pakistans-womens-march-shaking-patriarchy-to-its-core • https://www.newswire.com.pk/2021/03/04/eco/

13 SPEARFISH SERVICES & EVENTS

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