DOCSLIB.ORG

The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk The Cross Section of Foreign Currency Risk Premia and Consumption Growth Risk By HANNO LUSTIG AND ADRIEN VERDELHAN* Aggregate consumption growth risk explains why low interest rate currencies do not appreciate as much as the interest rate differential and why high interest rate currencies do not depreciate as much as the interest rate differential. Domestic investors earn negative excess returns on low interest rate currency portfolios and positive excess returns on high interest rate currency portfolios. Because high interest rate currencies depreciate on average when domestic consumption growth is low and low interest rate currencies appreciate under the same conditions, low interest rate currencies provide domestic investors with a hedge against domestic aggregate consumption growth risk. (JEL E21, E43, F31, G11) When the foreign interest rate is higher than rate currencies, on average, depreciate against the US interest rate, risk-neutral and rational US the dollar when US consumption growth is low, investors should expect the foreign currency to while low foreign interest rate currencies do depreciate against the dollar by the difference not. The textbook logic we use for any other between the two interest rates. This way, bor- asset can be applied to exchange rates, and it rowing at home and lending abroad, or vice works. If an asset offers low returns when the versa, produces a zero return in excess of the investor’s consumption growth is low, it is US short-term interest rate. This is known as the risky, and the investor wants to be compensated uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) condition, through a positive excess return. and it is violated in the data, except in the case To uncover the link between exchange rates of very high inflation currencies. In the data, and consumption growth, we build eight port- higher foreign interest rates almost always pre- folios of foreign currency excess returns on the dict higher excess returns for a US investor in basis of the foreign interest rates, because in- foreign currency markets. vestors know these predict excess returns. Port- We show that these excess returns compen- folios are rebalanced every period, so the first sate the US investor for taking on more US portfolio always contains the lowest interest rate consumption growth risk. High foreign interest currencies and the last portfolio always contains the highest interest rate currencies. This is the key innovation in our paper. Over the last three decades, in empirical asset * Lustig: Department of Economics, UCLA, Box 951477, Los Angeles, CA 90095, and National Bureau of pricing, the focus has shifted from explaining Economic Research (e-mail: [email protected]); Ver- individual stock returns to explaining the re- delhan: Department of Economics, Boston University, 270 turns on portfolios of stocks, sorted on variables Bay State Road, Boston, MA 02215, and Centre de recher- that we know predict returns (e.g., size and ches de la Banque de France, 29 rue Croix des petits 1 champs, Paris 75049 France (e-mail: [email protected]). The au- book-to-market ratio). This procedure elimi- thors especially thank two anonymous referees, Andy At- nates the diversifiable, stock-specific compo- keson, John Cochrane, Lars Hansen, and Anil Kashyap for nent of returns that is not of interest, thus detailed comments. We would also like to thank Ravi Ban- producing much sharper estimates of the risk- sal, Craig Burnside, Hal Cole, Virgine Coudert, Franc¸ois return trade-off in equity markets. Similarly, for Gourio, Martin Eichenbaum, John Heaton, Patrick Kehoe, Isaac Kleshchelski, Chris Lundbladd, Lee Ohanian, Fabri- currencies, by sorting these into portfolios, we zio Perri, Sergio Rebelo, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and abstract from the currency-specific component seminar participants at various institutions and conferences. The views in this paper are solely the responsibility of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views 1 See Eugene F. Fama (1976), one of the initial advo- of the Bank of France. cates of building portfolios, for a clear exposition. 89 90 THE AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW MARCH 2007 Characteristics of the eight portfolios (excess returns) 2 0 Mean −2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 10 Std 5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 0.4 0.2 0 −0.2 Sharpe ratio −0.4 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 FIGURE 1. EIGHT CURRENCY PORTFOLIOS Notes: This figure presents means, standard deviations (in percentages), and Sharpe ratios of real excess returns on eight annually rebalanced currency portfolios for a US investor. The data are annual and the sample is 1953–2002. These portfolios were constructed by sorting currencies into eight groups at time t based on the nominal interest rate differential with the home country at the end of period t Ϫ 1. Portfolio 1 contains currencies with the lowest interest rates. Portfolio 8 contains currencies with the highest interest rates. of exchange rate changes that is not related to these portfolios keep the number of covariances changes in the interest rate. This isolates the that must be estimated low, while allowing us to source of variation in excess returns that inter- continuously expand the number of countries ests us, and it creates a large average spread of studied as financial markets open up to interna- up to five hundred basis points between low and tional investors. This enables us to include data high interest rate portfolios. This spread is an from the largest possible set of countries. order of magnitude larger than the average To show that the excess returns on these spread for any two given countries. As one portfolios are due to currency risk, we start from would expect from the empirical literature on the US investor’s Euler equation and use con- UIP, US investors earn on average negative sumption-based pricing factors. We test the excess returns on low interest rate currencies of model on annual data for the periods 1953–2002 minus 2.3 percent and large, positive excess and 1971–2002. returns on high interest rate currencies of up to Consumption-based models explain up to 80 3 percent. The relation is almost monotonic, as percent of the variation in currency excess re- shown in Figure 1. These returns are large even turns across these eight currency portfolios. Are when measured per unit of risk. The Sharpe the parameter estimates reasonable? Our results ratio (defined as the ratio of the average excess are not consistent with what most economists return to its standard deviation) on the high view as plausible values of risk aversion, but interest rate portfolio is close to 40 percent, only they are consistent with the evidence from other slightly lower than the Sharpe ratio on US eq- assets. The estimated coefficient of risk aver- uity, while the same ratio is minus 40 percent sion is around 100, and the estimated price of for the lowest interest rate portfolio. In addition, US consumption growth risk is about 2 percent VOL. 97 NO. 1 LUSTIG AND VERDELHAN: CURRENCY RISK PREMIA 91 per annum for nondurables and 4.5 percent for I. Foreign Currency Excess Returns durables. Consumption-based models can ex- plain the risk premia in currency markets only if This section first defines the excess returns on we are willing to entertain high levels of risk foreign T-Bill investments and details the con- aversion, as is the case in other asset markets. In struction and characteristics of the currency fact, currency risk seems to be priced much like portfolios. We then turn to the US investor’s equity risk. If we estimate the model on US Euler equation and show how consumption risk domestic bond portfolios (sorted by maturity) can explain the average excess returns on these and stock portfolios (sorted by book-to-market currency portfolios. and size) in addition to the currency portfolios, the risk aversion estimate does not change. Our A. Why Build Portfolios of Currencies? currency portfolios really allow for an “out-of- sample” test of consumption-based models, be- We focus on a US investor who invests in cause the low interest rate currency portfolios foreign T-Bills or equivalent instruments. These have negative average excess returns, unlike bills are claims to a unit of foreign currency one i most of the test assets in the empirical asset period from today in all states of the world. Rtϩ1 pricing literature, and the returns on the cur- denotes the risky dollar return from buying a rency portfolios are not strongly correlated with foreign T-Bill in country i, selling it after one bond and stock returns. period, and converting the proceeds back into i ϭ i,£ i i i Consumption-based models can explain the dollars: Rtϩ1 Rt (Etϩ1/Et), where Et is the cross-section of currency excess returns if and exchange rate in dollar per unit of foreign cur- i,£ only if high interest rate currencies typically rency, and Rt is the risk-free one-period return 3 depreciate when real US consumption growth is in units of foreign currency i. We use Pt to low, while low interest rate currencies appreci- denote the dollar price of the US consumption i,e ϭ i Ϫ $ ate. This is exactly the pattern we find in the basket. Finally, Rtϩ1 (Rtϩ1 Rt )(Pt/Ptϩ1)is data. We can restate this result in standard fi- the real excess return from investing in foreign $ nance language using the consumption growth T-Bills, and Rt is the nominal risk-free rate in beta of a currency. The consumption growth US currency. Below, we use lowercase symbols beta of a currency measures the sensitivity of to denote the log of a variable.
Load more

Recommended publications
  • Revised Standards for Minimum Capital Requirements for Market Risk by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (“The Committee”)
    A revised version of this standard was published in January 2019. https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d457.pdf Basel Committee on Banking Supervision STANDARDS Minimum capital requirements for market risk January 2016 A revised version of this standard was published in January 2019. https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d457.pdf This publication is available on the BIS website (www.bis.org). © Bank for International Settlements 2015. All rights reserved. Brief excerpts may be reproduced or translated provided the source is stated. ISBN 978-92-9197-399-6 (print) ISBN 978-92-9197-416-0 (online) A revised version of this standard was published in January 2019. https://www.bis.org/bcbs/publ/d457.pdf Minimum capital requirements for Market Risk Contents Preamble ............................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Minimum capital requirements for market risk ..................................................................................................................... 5 A. The boundary between the trading book and banking book and the scope of application of the minimum capital requirements for market risk ........................................................................................................... 5 1. Scope of application and methods of measuring market risk ...................................................................... 5 2. Definition of the trading book ..................................................................................................................................
    [Show full text]
  • Update on the Insurance Industry's Use of Derivatives and Exposure Trends
    2/11/2021 Update on the Insurance Industry's Use of Derivatives and Exposure Trends The NAIC’s Capital Markets Bureau monitors developments in the capital markets globally and analyzes their potential impact on the investment portfolios of US insurance companies. A list of archived Capital Markets Bureau Special Reports is available via the index Update on the Insurance Industry's Use of Derivatives and Exposure Trends The NAIC Capital Markets Bureau published several special reports in the past few years concerning derivatives, providing insight into exposure trends, credit default swaps, hedging, changing reporting requirements, and market developments resulting from enactment of the federal Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act (Dodd-Frank) and other global initiatives. This report reviews U.S. insurers' derivatives holdings and exposure trends as of year-end 2015. Key Points: Derivatives activity in the U.S. insurance industry leveled off in 2015. The total notional value of derivative positions was virtually unchanged over year-end 2014, at $2 trillion. An overwhelming 94% of total industry notional value pertains to hedging, virtually unchanged since year-end 2010, when the Capital Markets Bureau began analyzing the data. Out of that 94%, 49% pertained to interest rate hedges, same as a year earlier, while 24% pertained to equity risk. Life insurers accounted for approximately 95% of total notional value, compared to 94% at year-end 2014. Property/casualty (P/C) insurers accounted for 5%, down from 6% a year earlier. Derivatives exposure in the health and fraternal segments was minimal, and title insurers reported no exposure.
    [Show full text]
  • Nber Working Paper Series Common Risk Factors In
    NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES COMMON RISK FACTORS IN CURRENCY MARKETS Hanno Lustig Nikolai Roussanov Adrien Verdelhan Working Paper 14082 http://www.nber.org/papers/w14082 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 June 2008 The authors thank Andy Atkeson, Alessandro Beber, Frederico Belo, Michael Brennan, Alain Chaboud, John Cochrane, Pierre Collin-Dufresne, Magnus Dahlquist, Kent Daniel, Darrell Duffie, Xavier Gabaix, John Heaton, Urban Jermann, Don Keim, Leonid Kogan, Olivier Jeanne, Karen Lewis, Fang Li, Francis Longstaff, Pascal Maenhout, Rob Martin, Anna Pavlova, Monika Piazzesi, Richard Roll, Geert Rouwenhorst, Clemens Sialm, Rob Stambaugh, Rene Stulz, Jessica Wachter, Amir Yaron, Hongjun Yan, Moto Yogo and seminar participants at many institutions and conferences for helpful comments. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2008 by Hanno Lustig, Nikolai Roussanov, and Adrien Verdelhan. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets Hanno Lustig, Nikolai Roussanov, and Adrien Verdelhan NBER Working Paper No. 14082 June 2008 JEL No. F31,G12,G15 ABSTRACT Currency excess returns are highly predictable and strongly counter-cyclical. The average excess returns on low interest rate currencies are 4.8 percent per annum smaller than those on high interest rate currencies after accounting for transaction costs.
    [Show full text]
  • Identify, Quantify, and Manage FX Risk
    Identify, Quantify, and Manage FX Risk A Guide for Microfinance Practitioners Identifying Risk Exposure Although hard currency loans may appear to be a relatively cost-effective and an easy source of funding to MFIs operating in local currency, they also create foreign exchange exposure by creating a currency mismatch. Currency mismatches occur when an MFI holds assets (such as microloans) denominated in the local currency of the MFI's country of operation but has hard currency loans, usually U.S. dollars (USD) or euros (EUR), financing its balance sheet. Currency mismatch creates a situation where an unexpected depreciation of the currency can dramatically increase the cost of debt service relative to revenues. Ultimately, this can: • leave the MFI with a loss of earnings and of capital, • render the MFI less creditworthy and force it to hold higher levels of capital relative to its loan portfolio, • reduce ROE, • limit the MFI’s ability to raise new funding. Currency risk is typically aggravated when additional risks are added: • Interest rate risk: When borrowing in foreign/hard currency is indexed to a reference rate (such as LIBOR for the Dollar and EURIBOR for the Euro) resulting in exposure to movements in interest rates as well as foreign exchange rates. • Convertibility risk: The risk that the national government will not sell foreign currency to borrowers or others with obligations denominated in hard currency. • Transfer risk: The risk that the national government will not allow foreign currency to leave the country regardless of its source. • Credit Risk: MFIs in many cases seek to avoid currency mismatch by on-lending to their micro-entrepreneur clients in hard currency so as to match the assets and liabilities on their balance sheets.
    [Show full text]
  • Foreign Exchange Risk Mitigation for Power and Water Projects in Developing Countries
    ENERGY AND MINING SECTOR BOARD DISCUSSION PAPER PAPER NO.9 DECEMBER 2003 Foreign Exchange Risk Mitigation for Power and Water Projects in Developing Countries Tomoko Matsukawa, Robert Sheppard and Joseph Wright THE WORLD BANK GROUP The Energy and Mining Sector Board AUTHORS DISCLAIMERS Tomoko Matsukawa ([email protected]) is Senior Financial Officer of the Project Finance and Guarantees unit The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in of the World Bank. She has worked on various power and this paper are entirely those of the authors and should not be water projects, structuring public-private risk-sharing schemes attributed in any manner to the World Bank, to its affiliated and implementing World Bank guarantee transactions. Prior organizations, or to members of its Board of Executive Directors to joining the World Bank she worked at Morgan Stanley, or the countries they represent. Citicorp and the Chase Manhattan Bank; she holds MBA from Stanford Graduate School of Business. The material in this work is copyrighted. No part of this work may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means, Robert Shepard ([email protected]) is a an independent electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or consultant working on ways to improve access to capital inclusion in any information storage and retrieval system, without markets for developing country infrastructure projects. the prior written permission of the World Bank. The World Bank He was previously responsible for project finance capital encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant markets at Banc of America Securities and is a member of permission promptly.
    [Show full text]
  • Speculation and Risk in Foreign Exchange Markets
    Chapter 7 Speculation and Risk in the Foreign Exchange Market © 2018 Cambridge University Press 7-1 7.1 Speculating in the Foreign Exchange Market • Uncovered foreign money market investments • Kevin Anthony, a portfolio manager, is considering several ways to invest $10M for 1 year • The data are as follows: • USD interest rate: 8.0% p.a.; GBP interest rate: 12.0% p.a.; Spot: $1.60/£ • Remember that if Kevin invests in the USD-denominated asset at 8%, after 1 year he will have × 1.08 = $10. • What if Kevin invests his $10M in the pound money market, but decides not to hedge the foreign$10 exchange risk?8 © 2018 Cambridge University Press 7-2 7.1 Speculating in the Foreign Exchange Market • As before, we can calculate his dollar return in three steps: • Convert dollars into pounds in the spot market • The $10M will buy /($1.60/£) = £6. at the current spot exchange rate • This is Kevin’s pound principal. $10 25 • Calculate pound-denominated interest plus principal • Kevin can invest his pound principal at 12% yielding a return in 1 year of £6. × 1.12 = £7 • Sell the pound principal plus interest at the spot exchange rate in 1 year 25 • 1 = × ( + 1, $/£) ( + 1) = ( + 1) × ( / ) – (1 + 0.08) • £7 £7 $10 © 2018 Cambridge University Press 7-3 Return and Excess Return in Foreign Market • We can use the previous calculation to deduce a formula for calculating the return in the foreign market, 1 rt( +=1) ×+( 1it( ,£)) × St( + 1) St( ) • The return on the British investment is uncertain because of exchange rate uncertainty.
    [Show full text]
  • Foreign Exchange Risk Management
    GUIDANCE NOTE FOR DEPOSIT TAKERS (Class 1(1) and Class 1(2)) Foreign Exchange Risk Management March 2017 STATUS OF GUIDANCE The Isle of Man Financial Services Authority (“the Authority”) issues guidance for various purposes including to illustrate best practice, to assist licenceholders to comply with legislation and to provide examples or illustrations. Guidance is, by its nature, not law, however it is persuasive. Where a person follows guidance this would tend to indicate compliance with the legislative provisions, and vice versa. Version 1.1 Isle of Man Financial Services Authority Contents Part 1 – Deposit takers incorporated in the Isle of Man ..........................................3 1. Rationale for Foreign Exchange Risk Management ................................................... 3 2. Overview of the Authority’s Approach to Foreign Exchange Risk Management ...... 5 3. Foreign Exchange Risk Management Policy............................................................... 5 4. Procedures and Systems ............................................................................................ 6 5. Calculation of the Net Open Position ........................................................................ 7 6. Valuation .................................................................................................................... 8 Part 2 – Deposit takers operating in or from the Isle of Man which are incorporated outside the Isle of Man (“branches”) ..................................................................... 9
    [Show full text]
  • Financial Stability Effects of Foreign-Exchange Risk Migration
    Financial Stability Effects of Foreign-Exchange Risk Migration∗ Puriya Abbassi Falk Br¨auning Deutsche Bundesbank Federal Reserve Bank of Boston November 7, 2019 Abstract Firms trade derivatives with banks to mitigate the adverse impact of exchange-rate fluctuations. We study how the related migration of foreign exchange (FX) risk is managed by banks and affects both credit supply and real economic variables. For iden- tification, we exploit the Brexit referendum in June 2016 as a quasi-natural experiment in combination with detailed micro-level FX derivatives data and the credit register in Germany. We show that, prior to the referendum, the corporate sector substantially increased the usage of derivatives, and banks on the other side of the trade did not fully intermediate that FX risk, but retained a large proportion of it in their own books. As a result, the depreciation of the British pound in the aftermath of the referendum poses a shock to the capital base of affected banks. We show that loss-facing banks in response cut back credit to firms, including to those without FX exposure to begin with. These results are stronger for less capitalized banks. Firms with ex-ante exposure to loss-facing banks experience a 32 percent larger reduction in credit than industry peers, and a stronger reduction in cash holdings and investment of about 8 and 2 percent, respectively. Our results show how a bank's uninsured derivatives book can take one corporation's FX risk and turn it into another corporation's financing risk. Keywords: Foreign Exchange Risk, Financial Intermediation, Risk Migration, Finan- cial Stability JEL Classification: D53, D61, F31, G15, G21, G32 ∗We thank participants at the Boston Macro-Finance Junior Meeting and the Federal Reserve System Banking Conference.
    [Show full text]
  • Over-The-Counter Derivatives
    Overview Over-the-Counter Derivatives GuyLaine Charles, Charles Law PLLC Reproduced with permission. Published May 2020. Copyright © 2020 The Bureau of National Affairs, Inc. 800.372.1033. For further use, please visit: http://bna.com/copyright-permission-request/ Over-the-Counter Derivatives Contributed by GuyLaine Charles of Charles Law PLLC Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives are financial products often maligned for being too complicated, opaque and risky. However, at their simplest form, OTC derivatives are quite straightforward and can be divided into three categories: forwards, options and swaps. Forwards A forward is a contract in which parties agree on the trade date, for the physical delivery of an agreed upon quantity of an underlying asset, for a specific price, at a future date. There are differing views as to when exactly forwards contracts first started being used, but it is accepted that forward contracts have been around for thousands of years. Throughout the years, forward contracts have allowed parties to protect themselves against the volatility of markets. For example, a manufacturer that requires sugar for the production of its goods may enter into a forward contract with a sugar supplier in which the manufacturer will agree that in three months the sugar supplier will provide the manufacturer with a specific quantity of sugar (X) in exchange for a specific amount of money (Y), all of which is negotiated today. Many factors can affect the price of sugar either positively or negatively – global supply, global demand, government subsidies etc., however, whether the price of sugar increases or decreases, the manufacturer knows that, unless its counterparty defaults, in three months it will be able to purchase X amount of sugar for $Y.
    [Show full text]
  • Foreign Exchange Risk and Financial Performance: the Case of Turkey
    DOI: 10.18825/irem.37893 Volume 4, Number 2, 2016, 1-15. FOREIGN EXCHANGE RISK AND FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE: THE CASE OF TURKEY Deniz Parlak* Hüseyin İlhan† Abstract The purpose of this study is to investigate the magnitude of foreign exchange open positions of manufacturing and service sector companies, to determine the effect of open positions on companies’ financial performance and to find out the factors that contribute to the firms’ tendency of keeping short foreign exchange position. The analysis conducted on 30 firms for the period spanning from the third quarter of 2012 to the second quarter of 2015 showed that operating profitability of the firms with short foreign exchange position was lower than operating profitability of firms with long foreign exchange position. The performed ANOVA test indicated that companies with short foreign exchange positions were able to increase their overall profitability to the same level as companies with long foreign exchange positions in periods when local currency was overvalued, but exposed to serious losses in periods of local currency devaluation. Applied regression analysis revealed that companies which had short foreign exchange position in the present period had higher liquidity and asset efficiency and lower overall profitability than companies with long foreign exchange position in the previous period. Keywords: Short FX Position, Hedging, Financial Performance, Relative Purchasing Power Parity JEL Code: G1 I. INTRODUCTION Many studies have documented that macroeconomic factors do not always conform to fundamental values. These imbalances have important strategy implications for companies which are * Doğuş University, Department of Management, [email protected] † [email protected] Date of submission: 24.06.2016 Date of acceptance: 27.09.2016 D.
    [Show full text]
  • The Increasing Importance of Currency Risk in Real Estate
    SUMMER 2018 The Increasing Importance of Currency Risk in Real Estate 50 PREA Quarterly, SummerSpring 2018 2018 PREA Quarterly Summer 2018.indd 50 7/25/18 1:03 PM 193462_Quarterly_Summer 2018_T.indd 50 7/25/18 3:09 PM QuarterlyQ For many people, an early window into the world of real estate investing comes through the board game Monopoly, played somewhat reluctantly at family gatherings. Amid the inevitable tears, tantrums, and arguments about rules, kids and adults learn the value of real estate as an income-generating investment and the importance of properly managing cash flow. However, with only a single in-game currency, the all-powerful and highly coveted Monopoly Dollar, the game does not help people de- velop any appreciation for the potential complexity that currency can bring to the world of property investing. (Given how rancor- ous the game can be, this is probably a good thing!) Unsurpris- ingly, real life is more complicated, and for the in- creasingly large group of global real estate investors, currency risk is an important consideration. Bryan Reid MSCI PREA Quarterly, Summer 2018 51 PREA Quarterly Summer 2018.indd 51 7/25/18 1:03 PM 193462_Quarterly_Summer 2018_T.indd 51 7/25/18 3:09 PM SUMMER 2018 Historically, as a tangible asset class, real estate (i.e., fully hedged without currency impact) has been has had a strong home bias. MSCI surveyed a large 7.4%, and the standard deviation of the annual total group of institutional investors in late 2013 and returns was 5.8% (Exhibit 1).1 Calculating the index found that, on average, 83% of real estate was do- in other currencies shows just how different the un- mestically invested.
    [Show full text]
  • FX Risk Premia from the Bond Markets
    FX Risk Premia from the Bond Markets Mi Wu∗ This Draft: November 20, 2017 Abstract This paper proposes a two-country term structure model of joint behavior of bond markets and foreign exchange (FX) markets. With information extracted from local bond markets of G10 currency countries, the model is able to repro- duce the uncovered interest parity (UIP) puzzle as observed in the FX market. Bond market risk factors explain up to 50% of the variations in exchange rate movements at a one-year horizon and over 90% for some countries at a five-year horizon. For currency excess returns, the model-implied time-varying risk pre- mia deliver higher explanatory power than the interest rate differentials. These findings quantify how closely the FX market and the bond markets are inte- grated. The empirical findings also reveal heterogeneity between investment- and funding-currency countries in terms of the risk exposure to the transitory shocks of the bond markets. ∗PhD Candidate, 4-339 Simon Business School, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY, USA 14620. Email: [email protected]; Tel: +1 415-279-6090. I am grateful to my advisor and committee members, Prof. Robert Ready, Prof. Ron Kaniel, and Prof. Robert Novy-Marx, for their invaluable advice. I also thank Prof. Olga Itenberg, Prof. John Long, Prof. Yan Bai, Prof. Andreas Stathopoulos, Prof. Jerry Warner, Dr. Leon Cui and all seminar participants at Simon Business School and University of Sydney Business School for helpful discussions and comments. All remaining errors are mine. 1 1 Introduction In theory, currency trades over any length horizon can be conducted through the bond markets.
    [Show full text]