Nber Working Paper Series Common Risk Factors In
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES COMMON RISK FACTORS IN CURRENCY MARKETS Hanno Lustig Nikolai Roussanov Adrien Verdelhan Working Paper 14082 http://www.nber.org/papers/w14082 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 June 2008 The authors thank Andy Atkeson, Alessandro Beber, Frederico Belo, Michael Brennan, Alain Chaboud, John Cochrane, Pierre Collin-Dufresne, Magnus Dahlquist, Kent Daniel, Darrell Duffie, Xavier Gabaix, John Heaton, Urban Jermann, Don Keim, Leonid Kogan, Olivier Jeanne, Karen Lewis, Fang Li, Francis Longstaff, Pascal Maenhout, Rob Martin, Anna Pavlova, Monika Piazzesi, Richard Roll, Geert Rouwenhorst, Clemens Sialm, Rob Stambaugh, Rene Stulz, Jessica Wachter, Amir Yaron, Hongjun Yan, Moto Yogo and seminar participants at many institutions and conferences for helpful comments. The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Bureau of Economic Research. NBER working papers are circulated for discussion and comment purposes. They have not been peer- reviewed or been subject to the review by the NBER Board of Directors that accompanies official NBER publications. © 2008 by Hanno Lustig, Nikolai Roussanov, and Adrien Verdelhan. All rights reserved. Short sections of text, not to exceed two paragraphs, may be quoted without explicit permission provided that full credit, including © notice, is given to the source. Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets Hanno Lustig, Nikolai Roussanov, and Adrien Verdelhan NBER Working Paper No. 14082 June 2008 JEL No. F31,G12,G15 ABSTRACT Currency excess returns are highly predictable and strongly counter-cyclical. The average excess returns on low interest rate currencies are 4.8 percent per annum smaller than those on high interest rate currencies after accounting for transaction costs.
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