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Contents Tariq Parvez President Advisory Board, NIOC: Former Director General Federal Investigation Agency Fiaz Khan Toru Member NIOC AB: Former Inspector General of Police Zahid Hussain ADVISORY BOARD Member NIOC AB: Eminent journalist particularly specializing in countering terrorism Fasi Zaka Member NIOC AB: Communications expert. To steer the advocacy campaign. Zubair Habib Chairman CPLC Karachi, Member NIOC AB: For community outreach. Tariq Khosa Director Muhammad Amir Rana Secretary Muhammad Ali Nekokara Deputy Director NIOC DIRECTORATE Hassan Sardar Admin & Finance Manager Minutes of the NIOC 5th Advisory Board Meeting The 5th Advisory Board Meeting of the National Initiative against Organized Crime (NIOC) Pakistan was held at Islamabad Club on Friday, 6 March 2020. The meeting was preceded by luncheon which also entailed introduction to and preliminary discussion around the issues concerning the AB meeting. Some special guests who participated included Inspector General (IG) Islamabad Police Aamir Zulfiqar, Additional Director General (ADG) FIA Ehsan Sadiq, and Deputy Inspector General (DIG) Police Shahzada Sultan, who is currently serving at the National Counter Terrorism Authority (NACTA). Mr. Tariq Parvez, President Advisory Board, could not attend the meeting due to some pressing family engagement. Mr Fiaz Toru, AB Member, was requested to chair the meeting for which he gave his kind consent. Others who attended the meeting included Zahid Hussain (Member AB), Zubair Habib (Member AB), Fasi Zaka (Member AB), Tariq Khosa (Director NIOC), Amir Rana (Secretary NIOC), Hassan Sardar (Manager Administration and Finance), and Kashif Noon (Consultant). DIG Shahzada Sultan of Nacta also participated on special request. Some highlights of the meting are as under: • The minutes of the previous [4th] Advisory Board meeting were approved in the meeting. • NIOC brochure’s printed copy was approved. It was agreed that the 1,000 printed copies would be distributed among all the relevant stakeholders including foreign missions, CSOs and think-tanks. Secretary NIOC Amir Rana was asked to manage the task. • NIOC Newsletter for February 2020 was reviewed and approved for circulation by PIPS. • NIOC website was displayed on multimedia. Most said it had been improved considerably. Participants agreed that more professional material would be added to make it purposeful. • All Advisory Board Members were asked two nominate Experts and Champions of Change among the civil society for approval by NIOC AB in next meeting on Friday, 3 April 2020. • It was reviewed that 1st International Conference on Organized Crime would be held at Islamabad Club on 13-14 April, 2020. Secretary NIOC Amir Rana will finalize the conference agenda in a few days time. It was agreed that respected journalist and human rights activist Mr IA Rehman will be invited as the Chief Guest. Guest of Honour will be the Norwegian Ambassador in Islamabad. Keynote Speakers at the Inaugural Session would be Mr Moeed Yousaf, Special Assistant to the PM on National Security, Dr Hassan Abbas, Distinguished Professor at Near East and South Asia Institute at the NDU Washington and Mr Tariq Parvez, President NIOC AB. Two sessions on terrorism financing and drug trafficking will be held on 13 April and will be chaired by National Coordinator Nacta and Federal Secretary Narcotics Control respectively. Next day, on 14th April, two sessions will be held on human trafficking and cybercrimes, under the chairmanship of Jeremy Milsom of UNODC and DG FIA Wajid Zia, respectively. Efforts would be made to invite a UK expert on organized crime through the British High Commission Islamabad. • Drug trafficking paper was approved by AB. It would be sent to GI-TOC for circulation globally. • The meeting was also informed that two researchers had been hired by NIOC. Jameel Hussain Junejo is preparing a 10-page paper on drug [abuse] situation in Karachi. Asad 5 Jamal, an eminent lawyer in Lahore, is writing an analysis paper on cybercrime laws and rules. Both papers are to be finalized by 15 March 2020. • GI-TOC Discussion on Fragility and Violence was found to be very useful by AB. Kashif Noon, Consultant, was tasked to prepare its summary for discussion during AB Meeting on 3 April and during International Conference on Organized Crime on 13-14 April, 2020. • Finally, draft of the Analysis Paper on Terror Financing was presented to AB by Consultant Kashif Noon. Very useful discussion was held and feedback and review by DIG Shahzada Sultan of Nacta was appreciated. The Consultant will finalize the Paper after final review by Director NIOC Tariq Khosa and President AB NIOC Mr Tariq Parvez. 6 Afghanistan: Taliban’s Actions Will Help Decide Future of IS-K Brian M. Perkins As the United States and the Taliban are set to begin a partial truce as part of long-running attempts to strike a peace deal, Afghanistan’s other preeminent militant group, Islamic State Khorosan (IS-K), remains ambitious and still commands an estimated force of around 2,500 fighters (Benar News, February 7). Despite suffering significant losses in its primary base of Nangarhar in late 2019, a large number of fighters managed to escape through Kunar Province or the Spin Ghar mountains and into Pakistan and are looking to regroup. The successful operations conducted by Afghan forces in Nangarhar in 2019 significantly disrupted the group but also illuminated the breadth of IS-K’s appeal and recruitment efforts. Among those captured were fighters from Azerbaijan, Canada, France, India, Maldives, Pakistan, Tajikistan, Turkey and Uzbekistan (The Hindu, February 11). There has yet to be a large-scale operation against regrouped IS-K fighters in Kunar, and the group is also still present in the north and west in Faryab and Herat Provinces (Tolo News, December 24, 2019). The Taliban was reportedly also involved in the operations against IS- K and had also ramped up operations against the group elsewhere in late 2019. IS-K is no longer the imposing force it was in years past, but it retains a significant core of fighters and is still capable of recruiting new members, including those from outside of Afghanistan. The questions now are whether the Afghan government can, or will, conduct sustained operations against the group and what implications the tentative truce/peace deal with the Taliban will have on IS-K. The Taliban, as a whole, has been a staunch opponent of IS-K since its arrival in Afghanistan. An increase in attempts to weaken the group have coincided with progress toward peace negotiations, a fact which indicates that the Taliban, too, is concerned about the potential for a peace deal further empowering IS-K. A deal could allow the group to act as a significant spoiler by drawing a large number of disillusioned Taliban members that are against, or do not benefit from, a peace deal. The Taliban has continued these attempts and most recently, on February 8, released a video depicting IS-K fighters surrendering to its members in Kunar (Jihadology, February 8). 7 An IS-K resurgence will largely hinge on the Taliban’s actions in the coming months and year. First, the Taliban’s efforts against IS-K have been critical to keeping the group in check, and there are questions as to whether the Afghan forces’ operations in Nangarhar would have been as successful if not for IS-K suffering previous losses at the hands of the Taliban. The Taliban could empower IS-K again if it resumes fighting on the same scale seen in 2019, drawing significant focus and resources away from the fight against IS-K. At the same time, progress toward a peace deal in the absence of significant gains against IS-K could leave the group in a powerful enough position to continue recruitment and the ability to draw in disenfranchised Taliban members at a particularly fragile time. Either way, the Taliban will play a critical role in what the future holds for IS-K. Pakistan’s presence in grey list negative for banks: Moody’s ISLAMABAD: Moody’s Investor Service — a New York-based rating agency — on Thursday said that Pakistan’s inability to comply with the global standards on anti-money laundering and terror financing was a credit negative for its leading banks. “Pakistan’s continued presence on list of jurisdictions under increased monitoring — commonly known as grey list of the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) is credit negative for its banks,” it said. On Feb 21, the FATF – an inter-governmental body tasked with setting global framework requirements around anti-money-laundering, counter terror financing and other related threats to the international financial system -- announced that the country would remain on its list of jurisdictions under increased monitoring, along with 17 other countries, after failing to complete a June 2018 action plan by the assigned deadlines. Pakistan, which has been presenting its progress to the FATF every four months since the agreement of the action plan, will remain on the list until at least June, when the next evaluation will take place. The announcement is credit negative for Pakistani banks because it raises questions about potential additional restrictions relating to banks’ foreign-currency 8 clearing services, as well as their foreign operations. Banks’ profitability risks being constrained as a result of increased compliance and operational costs. The FATF has warned that it will urge member countries to increase their attention when conducting business transactions with Pakistan if the country’s government, regulatory body and other stakeholders of the financial system fail to complete the action plan, which emphasises combating terror financing, by June. Should they fail to do so, international financial institutions could curtail their interactions with Pakistani banks and other financial companies, including terminating correspondent banking relationships. This in turn would further constrain banks’ ability to generate business and result in higher compliance costs.

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