V13 N17 Thursday, Dec. 7, 2006 Hamilton, Bayh and Iraq disaster ‘Grave & Deteriorating’ war of gathering infamy

By MARK CURRY and BRIAN A. HOWEY - As Americans began to come to grips with a war in Iraq it is not winning, according to the incoming secretary of defense, two Hoosier Democrats, Lee Hamilton and U.S. Sen. , were thrust into the national lens this week. The blunt and bleak assess- ment of Hamilton and former Secretary of State James A. Baker III came in the week Sen. Bayh formed his presi- dential exploratory committee. The same day those papers were filed, Bayh questioned Robert M. Gates in a Senate confirmation hearing. Gates rocked the nation when Sen. Carl Levin asked if the U.S. was “winning the war.” Gates responded, “No we are not.” Bayh asked Gates how he could be confident the president would heed his counsel. “Senator, because he asked me to take the job,” Gates replied. As the Times described the scene: Bayh waited for

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Losing another American war By BRIAN A. HOWEY INDIANAPOLIS - Evan Bayh and I were juniors in high school - he at St. Albans’ School for Boys, me at Peru High School - when Henry Kissinger said in 1973, “Peace is at hand.” We were freshmen in college when American he- licopters plucked off stragglers at the U.S. Embassy in Saigon in April 1975 “Our ship of state has hit rough when America essentially lost a war. We were still in college when Pol Pot waters. It must now chart a new perpetrated something our class of way forward.” Jonathan Livingston Seagull, this is the first day of the rest of your life, - Former Congressman Lee played to Seals & Croft “We Will Hamilton, introducing the Iraq Study Group Never Pass report on Wednesday This Way Again” passed See page 2 HOWEY Political Report Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Dec. 7, 2006 into adulthood. But here we are … this way again. Time for the ‘07 HPR 50 List p. 6 Contrary to what President Recounts: Elrod, Harris still up p. 7 Bush, Vice President Cheney and U.S. INSIDE Rep. Mike Pence have been saying, 2008: A Greggorian Chant? p. 8 we are on the verge of losing a war. Features Or as former Indiana congressman Schoeff: A global showdown p. 10 Lee Hamilton put it, America’s military adventure in Iraq is “grave and dete- Democrats aim at FSSA reforms p. 11 riorating.” Everything the Class of ‘74 Columnists: Judis, Tully p. 12 thought it had learned from Bergen- Belsen, to Tet to Cambodia and Saigon has been lost in the dust and fog of The Howey Political Report is The Howey Political Report Baghdad. PO Box 40265 published by NewsLink Inc. It Indianapolis, IN 46240-0265. I went back and reread my was founded in 1994. columns from February 2003 when I www.howeypolitics.com finally bought into President Bush’s Brian A. Howey, Publisher [email protected] war. He described Saddam’s torture Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington Indianapolis Office: 317-506-0883. chambers where the thugs used Writer Indianapolis Fax: 317-254-0535. electric shock, hot irons, dripping acid, Mark Curry, Washington Writer Washington, DC Office: 202-256-5822. mutilation with electric drills, severed Jack E. Howey, Editor Business Office: 317-254-0535. tongues and rape. “If this is not evil, then evil has no meaning,” Bush said. Subscriptions: ©2006, The Howey Political Report. I wrote: “Should I take Bush’s $350 annually HPR via e-mail; All rights reserved. Photocopying, Internet word for it? Was that just another $550 annually HPR & HPR Daily Wire. forwarding, faxing or reproducing in any politician exaggerating his case?” Call 317-254-0535. form, in whole or part, is a violation of I turned to www.amnesty. federal law. org which featured Iraq (and ) on its homepage. There I met Um idea what Saddam has done with the day if he regretted his 2002 authoriza- Haydar, a married 25-year-old mother 25,000 liters of anthrax, the 38,000 tion vote and he responded, “Saddam of three who was charged by Uday liters of botulinum, the 500 tons had no weapons of mass destruction. Hussein with prostitution in 2000. She of VX, mustard and sarin gas, and That’s why I voted like I did, I thought was taken to her home where she was 29,984 missiles capable of delivering a that leaving weapons like that in the held by two men while a third pulled chemical payload that United Nations hands of a man like him was a danger her head off with his bare hands in weapons inspectors had documented to the United States. Knowing what front of her family. I learned that while several years ago.” we know now, I would not cast the Josef Stalin killed at least 20 million In my mind, we were about same vote.” Soviet people, Saddam had liquidated to attack a “viper regime that has Now, I wonder why so many a million Iraqis, according to the New committed vicious atrocities against people I respect - the Lugars, Bayhs, York Times. Per capita, he was on par the people.” Buyers and Pences - could so readily with Uncle Joe. Now? sign off from the Powell Doctrine of Having heard the fears of I don’t trust our government’s going in with overwhelming force, to my Jewish classmate in City ability to properly assess intelligence, the Bush Doctrine that has produced a as a young child - the daughter of put it into valid context, and tell the searing, ghastly American-Iraqi calam- surviving holocaust victims - and then truth. I feel gullible for ever signing ity, with the potential to spread across watching Cambodia unfold from my off on the Bush/neo-con theory of the Middle East. None of them have dorm room at Teter Quad, that is how pre-emption. I feel drunk from our children in the war. I came to support this war. Kosovo/Serbia war and occupation My sons are 16 and 17 I wrote in 2003, “President where we didn’t lose a single guy and years old, and they are watching Bush has framed the coming Iraqi we calmed Balkan genocide. On the this war the same way 1974 grads incursion as a pre-emptive strike to day Hamilton issued his Iraq Study named Howey and Bayh were watch- ensure our national security. Perhaps Group report, 10 American soldiers ing Vietnam. It ended before we were that is starting out on the wrong were killed in Iraq. drafted or enlisted. We lost it before footing, even though we have no Sen. Bayh was asked on Tues- we graduated. HOWEY Political Report Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Dec. 7, 2006 I asked my oldest son Thomas if he would be will- 11s, but said, “I don’t know if I can trust our leaders.” I ing to fight as we gathered up for war in 2003. He told me, must tell you, Stephen is not a cynical boy. “Dad, I would if we have another Sept. 11.” This week I That is the price a middle-aged, over-reaching em- asked my youngest son, Stephen Daniel, if he would be pire pays when its government lies and then can’t execute willing to fight to save Iraq. a war we may be destined to lose, the consequences of He didn’t dismiss it out of hand, understanding the which we cannot fully fathom or appreciate as this disaster basic concept that a failed Iraq state will breed more Sept. begins to sink it. We will never pass this way again? v

Hamilton called the situation “grave and deteriorating.” The Iraq: From page 1 a more elaborate answer, and, realizing one was not coming, group’s co-chair said, however, that “not all options have said simply, “He asked the oth- been exhausted.” ers to take the jobs as well.” The report suggests: “By the first quarter of 2008, “He impressed me as being candid and open subject to unexpected developments in the security situa- minded, more realistic than what we’ve been seeing out tion on the ground, all combat brigades not necessary for of the administration these last six years,” Bayh said on force protection could be out of Iraq. At that time, U.S. CNN, explaining that he would vote to confirm Gates. “That combat forces in Iraq could be deployed only in units em- said, simply changing bedded with Iraqi the face at the Pen- forces, in rapid-re- tagon isn’t enough. action and special We need a new operations teams policy that depends and in training, on what’s going on in equipping, advis- the President’s mind. ing, force protec- I’m not convinced that tion and search the President quite and rescue.” yet understands what Hamilton needs to be done in outlined three Iraq.” Bayh referred important points: to the leaked memo “Our three recom- by National Security mendations are adviser Steven Hadley equally important and said, “Ultimately, and re-enforce will he listen? Hadley each other. (1) A leaked a memo with President Bush meets with Sens. John Warner, Carl Levin and Richard Lugar change in the primary mission doubts about al-Maliki. on Wednesday to discuss the Iraq Study Group. Lugar called it “an exhaus- Even (Donald) Rums- of U.S. forces. (2) tive inquiry.” (White House photo) feld was considering Prompt action by other options. Gates is the Iraqi govern- a good man, but will ment to achieve he (President Bush) listen? Only time will tell.” milestones and national reconciliation. And (3) A new and On Wednesday, it was Hamilton’s turn and he and enhanced diplomatic effort in Iraq and within the region.” Baker issued a stunning report that, when taken into con- NBC analyst Tim Russert reacted to the press con- text of the political rhetoric Americans heard in the weeks ference, saying, “I was so taken by the bluntness and how before the Nov. 7 elections, was jarring. bleak this report is.” “We no longer can afford to stay the course,” Baker President Bush responded by saying, “This report said in presenting the report at a news conference. “If gives a very tough assessment of the situation in Iraq. we do what we recommend in this report, it will certainly We will take every proposal seriously, and we will act in a improve our chances for success.” timely fashion.” He urged Congress to take the group’s pro- Hamilton echoed his colleague’s sentiments, say- posals seriously and work with the administration and find ing the Iraqi people are “suffering great hardship” and “common ground” on Iraq policy. “The country is tired of their lives must be improved. “The current approach is not pure political bickering,” Bush said. In this mornings presser working and the ability of the United States to influence with British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Bush referred to Iraq events is diminishing,” Hamilton said. “Our ship of state has as “unsettled.” When pressed, Bush said, “It’s bad in Iraq. hit rough waters. It must now chart a new way forward.” Did that help?” HOWEY Political Report Page 4 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chair- do about U.S. presence, Bayh said, “I’ll tell you exactly man Dick Lugar reacted: “I welcome the contributions of what I’d do. I’d do the opposite of what the President did a Secretary James Baker, Congressman Lee Hamilton and the month ago when he picked up the phone and called Prime entire Iraq Study Group. They have undertaken an exhaus- Minister Al-Maliki and said, ‘Don’t worry; we’re staying.’ tive inquiry into the current situation in Iraq. The recom- I’d pick up the phone and say, ‘You know what? We’re not mendations of the Iraq Study Group should be absorbed staying forever.’” and considered by policymakers who are grappling with the Bayh said the central government must assert its complexities of Iraq policy and issues involving the broader authority. “If you do, we’ll stand by you and make a go of landscape of the Middle East. I also welcome the concur- it because we want you to be successful. But if you don’t, rent activity in the Bush administration to review present there’s nothing we can do for you.” Asked if he would start policies and consider new approaches. As this process to withdaw troops, Bayh said, “I’d like them to know we’re moves forward, Congress must be a constructive partner to going to begin the process now to bring our presence in the administration. Senator Biden has indicated that begin- Iraq to a close. To show that I meant business, I would ning in January, the Foreign Relations bring out a small amount of troops ... Committee will hold a series of hearings in the next few months.” Bayh said he to continue our examination of U.S. op- would call a “Dayton-like conference” tions in Iraq. Since the summer of 2002, to “let them resolve their differences. the Foreign Relations Committee has Then I would time our departure in a held roughly 40 hearings on Iraq under way that gave them the best chance. the chairmanships of Senator Biden and If they can’t get their act together, we myself. We look forward to welcoming can’t do this for them.” administration officials, members of the Bayh criticized President Bush’s Iraq Study Group and other outside ex- statement in Amman, Jordan, last perts as we seek their views about how week that, “We’re going to stay as the United States can achieve the best long as the Iraqis want us.” Bayh said, possible outcome in Iraq.” “That is not an acceptable standard U.S. Sen. John McCain said this for our troops. It’s not the advice he’s morning, “The one thing worse than getting that matters, it’s what’s in his an exhausted Army and Marine Corps mind and I don’t think he grasps the is a defeated Army and Marine Corps.” essential truth there yet.” McCain called the ISG report a “recipe On MSNBC, Bayh was asked by for disaster” as he met with Baker and Nora O’Donnell, “Senator, let me ask Hamilton. “Withdraw the troops and still you, you voted for the Iraq war, do have American troops embedded with Iraq troops puts at you believe it was a mistake?” risk a large number of advisers,” he said. Bayh responded, “Saddam had no weapons of Hamilton acknowledged, “You’re absolutely right mass destruction. That’s why I voted like I did, I thought about that. Those men and women will be in a place that leaving weapons like that in the hands of a man like of danger. We will have combat forces there to protect him was a danger to the United States. Knowing what we the embedded forces. It’s a risky mission.” But Hamilton know now, I would not cast the same vote.” pushed back, saying at one point that Congress had been much too “timid” in its oversight of the war. Bayh stakes bid on national security While Bayh spent much of 2006 building a $10.7 Bayh on the talk shows million war chest and assembling a highly lauded campaign Sen. Bayh received a huge amount of national staff, he is hoping to use not only his red state political suc- exposure this week, from his Sunday appearance on ABC’s cesses and executive experience in Indiana to his advan- “This Week,” to the Gates confirmation hearing on Tuesday, tage, but as a pragmatic voice on national security. He has and appearances on CNN, MSNBC and Fox News. worked all year to cultivate and nurture that reputation. In On the war in Iraq, Bayh told ABC’s George Stepha- a speech last February he said a “tough and smart” ap- nopolous, “This problem is not going to be solved in Wash- proach to Iraq would “establish benchmarks for success, a ington, not by the national security adviser and not by the timeline for progress, accountability for results and candor president of the United States. It is going to be solved by about how we are doing.” Iraqis in Baghdad and across Iraq. If they don’t reconcile He has repeatedly criticized Republicans for be- themselves to a common future and a common country, we ing “a lot better at national security politics than national are only operating on the margins.” Asked what he would security policy,” and claimed the administration’s “stunning HOWEY Political Report Page 5 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Dec. 7, 2006 incompetence” has “undermined our security.” “I think everybody did well,” Murphy said of the “Iraq is the foremost example,” he said in a July hearing. “I don’t think [Bayh] said anything that made him speech. “They have turned it into a tragic, tragic mess.” stand out above the crowd. I thought his remarks were As a member of two key committees, Armed Services and useful and illuminating and I was glad he made them.” But Intelligence, Sen. Bayh will have an opportunity in the next asked if he thought Democrats would be Congress to help make good on his oft-repeated boast that troubled by Bayh’s initial support of the Iraq war, he said, “Democrats can do better.” In order to do that, he will first “That’s tough to say. There aren’t that many people that have to face down those from his own party who seek to are aware of the vote. Of course in the campaign they oppose him. Bayh was an early proponent for the war in would be. I think if you voted for it at this point it’s a nega- Iraq, and his October 2002 vote to authorize an invasion tive, but then you have to look at the fact we voted for disappointed even some Indiana Democratic activists who in the last election, who voted for the Iraq war supported his governorship. He continues to try and rally resolution. I don’t think it’s considered a good vote.” Democrats to his cause. In fact, a substantial majority of Americans sup- “If people don’t trust us with our lives, they’re ported the invasion of Iraq, although a Pew analysis at unlikely to trust us with anything else,” Bayh told thousands the time noted “the level of public support depends upon of Democrats during his travels through two dozen states several important contingencies: whether or not U.S. allies in the past year. Mike Glover of the Associated Press wrote and the United Nations go along with the effort; the level that during a visit to on Monday Bayh urged Demo- of potential casualties; and the nature of the evidence crats to “seek practical answers to the daily challenges fac- discovered by the U.N. weapons inspectors.” And, of the ing Americans. If not, the party’s control of Congress could top Democrats considered possible presidential material be brief.” at present, only U.S. Sen. Barack Obama can say he op- posed the war from the beginning. Still, Bayh can expect Bayh’s critical timing concerns about Iraq to dominate just about wherever he The announcement last Sunday on ABC that he goes, especially now that he’s offically a potential candidate would form an exploratory committee, timed only two days looking for cam- before the Gates hearing, has helped to substantiate Bayh’s paign funding. In security credentials. The resulting widespread media at- the past week he’s tention may also serve to bolster his standing in polls that been to Ohio, Min- consistently rank him in the bottom tier among potential nesota and . 2008 contenders. Last week the Quinnipiac University Poll- Next week he visits ing Institute released a likeability poll of 20 top American and Texas. political figures and Bayh finished 16th, below George Bush Like every other but above John Kerry. A full three-quarters of respondents presidential can- indicated they did not have enough information about Bayh didate, Indiana’s to decide if they like him or not, suggesting support for a junior senator Bayh candidacy has the potential to grow if he can mange will be asked to to get his message out to the voters. answer impor- This weekend the former governor will take his Sen. Bayh with ABC’s George Stephanopo- tant questions message directly to the people of New Hampshire, where lous in last Sunday’s “This Week.” related to Iraq in dissatisfaction with President Bush and the war in Iraq the months ahead. looms so large that for the first time in more than 100 Donors and voters years Democrats captured both state houses in the mid- will want to know why he supported the invasion, how he terms. reacted as the situation evolved and what he thinks should One Granite State voter who was very happy with be done next. He will also be judged on his ability to shape that outcome is Frank Murphy, the retired social worker legislation and policy impacting our role in that country. His who for two years served as Democratic chair for the town remarkable career has anticipated a guiding role in na- of Keene. In an interview conducted yesterday by tele- tional politics, yet he has landed in the midst of a peculiar phone, Murphy told HPR that he hasn’t decided yet wheth- American trauma, a time calling for the strongest brand of er he will attend a Bayh event planned in his hometown leadership. As Murphy said at the end of our interview, “If this Sunday. He said he may be out drumming up support you’re in contact with the senator, tell him to keep working. for the presidential candidate he endorses, former Alaskan America is in difficulty.” Sen. Mike Gravel, who will also be in town. Murphy did say Evan Bayh has a year to make the case that he that he approved of Bayh’s questioning during the Gates possesses the strength and intelligence to lead Democrats hearing. and the country through the difficult years that lay ahead. v HOWEY Political Report Page 6 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Dec. 7, 2006 Help formulate the 6. Marion County Prosecutor Carl Brizzi 7. Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson 2007 Influence List 8. U.S. Rep. Pete Visclosky 9. U.S. Rep. Mike Pence INDIANAPOLIS - Obviously, there will be major 10. U.S. Rep. Mike Sodrel changes in the 2007 HPR 50 Most Influential List. 11. U.S. Rep. John Hostettler Senate President Pro Tempore Robert Garton, 12. State Rep. Rep. B. Patrick Bauer U.S. Reps. Mike Sodrel, John Hostettler and Chris 13. Senate President Pro Tempore Robert D. Chocola were all defeated. Departing the Daniels ad- Garton ministration 14. Ways & Means Chairman Jeff Espich is Chief of 15. FSSA Director Mitch Roob Staff Harry 16. Lt. Gov. Becky Skillman Gonso. 17. Marion County Sheriff Frank Anderson The 18. U.S. Rep. Chris Chocola 2006 list 19. State Sen. Luke Kenley reflected 20. John R. Hammond III the wave 21. Bob Grand that de- 22. State Rep. Randy Borror veloped 23. Secretary of State Todd Rokita around the 24. Lee Hamilton Iraq War 25. Fort Wayne Mayor Graham Richard and con- 26. Alan B. Hubbard gressional 27. Marty Morris corruption, 28. Tom Sugar as well as the Daniels administration’s Major Moves 29. U.S. Rep. Steve Buyer program. 30. GOP Executive Director Jennifer Hallowell In 2007, there will be the Evan Bayh presiden- 31. Indiana Democratic Chairman Dan Parker tial campaign, the biennial budget in the Indiana Gen- 32. Indiana Republican Chairman Jim Kittle Jr. eral Assembly, mayoral elections, and a huge decision 33. State Sen. Vi Simpson for Indiana Democrats: who will be challenging Gov. 34. Farm Bureau President Don Villwock Mitch Daniels? 35. Chamber President Kevin Brinegar HPR has been compiling the 50 Most Influen- 36. IMA President Pat Kiely tial List since 1999. We ask our readers to suggest 37. UAW President Terry Thurman additons (or subtractions). Some of you compile your 38. Mike O’Connor own 50 list. HPR encourages this exercise in power, 39. Mike Gentry clout and accountability. Send thoughts to HPR Pub- 40. Hamilton County Republican Chairman lisher Brian A. Howey at: brianhowey@howeypoli- Charlie White tics.com. The 2007 list will be published in the Jan. 41. U.S. Rep. Mark Souder 11 edition of The Howey Political Report as well as 42. U.S. Rep. Julia Carson Brian Howey’s statewide newspaper column running 43. Baron Hill in 24 papers and reaching more than 200,000 readers 44. Vanderburgh County Sheriff Brad Ellsworth each week. 45. OMB Director Chuck Schalliol 46. Stadium Authority Chairman David Frick 2006 HPR 50 Most Influential 47. State Sen. Mike Young and State Rep. Phil 1. Gov. Mitch Daniels Hinkle 2. U.S. Sen. Richard Lugar 48. 3. U.S. Sen. Evan Bayh 49. Dan Coats 4. Commerce Secretary/IEDC Chairman Mickey 50. IACT Executive Director Matt Greller Mauer v 5. House Speaker Brian Bosma HOWEY Political Report Page 7 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Dec. 7, 2006 Reps. Harris, Elrod may have crats of “widepsread fraud” in the election. More than 2,500 ballots in Jennings County were recount count wins; Bright drops cast absentee, leading Clerk Janis Ramey to call on Secre- tary of State Todd Rokita to reform absentee ballot voting petition, but fraud is alleged that is not covered under the state’s new voter ID law. “We feel like this was important to give us a fair By BRIAN A. HOWEY sample of absentee ballots,” Bright told the Louisville INDIANAPOLIS - It’s not quite a lock, but at this Courier-Journal. “Now, we need a day or two to review writing, it looks as if Indiana Democrats will maintain con- the information and decide whether to go forward.” Bright trol of the Indiana House. Democrat Ed Mahern appears to be an 8-vote loser to State Rep. Jon Elrod in HD97. In HD31, Blackford County Commissoner Larry Hile picked up one vote in his re- count and now trails State Rep. Tim Harris by 18 votes. The Indiana Recount Commission will reconvene at 1:30 p.m. Sunday to consider the HD15 recount between State Rep. Don Lehe and Newton County Sheriff Myron State Reps. Jon Elrod and Sutton, who trails by 24 votes. Tim Harris (left top) were Democrats are talking seated and look as if they will and the recount commission will win recounts. Former Rep. consider at least four precincts Billy Bright has dropped his where hundreds of votes are in recount, but alleges fraud. question. In HD31, there are Commissioner Hile is above. 300 votes are disputed. Hile (HPR Photo by Brian A. maintains that Center Township Howey) precincts 22 and 24 should not be counted in Grant County. Ac- cording to Hile, those precincts may contest the election are not included in the Indiana that had State Rep. Dave Code, though they were cre- Cheatham winning by ated following the 2000 Census 1,600 votes. Ramey told (Marion Chronicle-Tribune). HPR last week that she Hile and Rep. Har- was expressed concern ris joined Jennings County that despite the current Clerk Janis L. Ramey to call for voter ID law, people vot- changes in the election process, ing absentee “don’t have particularly when it comes to absentee ballots. to show ID.” "Quite honestly, we felt pretty good about the way The recount in HD15 between State Rep. Don Lehe it went," Harris said. Both candidates, though, said they and Newton County Sheriff Myron Sutton is expected to felt the high number of disputed ballots shows the need for begin later this week. Lehe had a 24-vote lead. better training for poll workers. "Obviously, there were a lot Over the weekend, auditors finished reviewing of errors, or else there wouldn't be 300 some ballots that votes in Marion County’s House District 97. The board’s are being contested," Hile said. total would give an 8-vote victory to Republican Jon Elrod In HD69, former State Rep. Billy Bright withdrew over incumbent Democrat Ed Mahern, a result similar to his recount petition on Monday in HD69. But he said the the original count. Elrod had a 7-vote margin going into preliminary recount steps allowed him to view absentee the recount. But hundreds of votes -- even entire precincts ballots from Jennings County, where 25 percent of the vote -- have been disputed in that race. v was cast via that method. Bright has accused the Demo- HOWEY Political Report Page 8 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Dec. 7, 2006 would be my guess,” he said. “I could make him look no Dems: A Gregg-orian chant? further to be candid. That’s Bart’s decision.” As he turned more serious, Gregg said Demo- By DAVE KITCHELL crats have to strike a balance with the ticket for governor. Logansport Pharos-Tribune Although he did not say it, that balance with Peterson at LOGANSPORT - At the end of the front row in the the top could include a candidate like Gregg who comes Logansport City Council chambers, a svelte figure with a from rural Indiana yet has one of the most recognizable clean-shaven head in a business suite sat smiling last week names in Indiana politics. Gregg said Democrats have to as Indianapolis attorneys reminisced about one of their do a good job of slating candidates with a pro-gun, pro-life own, Frank McHale. and pro-death penalty background. He said the example of Like McHale, a former national Democratic Party Sen. of winning as an indepen- official known for bringing President Harry Truman to dent is a good lesson for Indiana Democrats to remember. Indiana on a whistle-stop tour in 1948, that figure has Gregg said far right and left some notoriety in the party factions pulled support away represented by a donkey. John from Lieberman, who lost the Gregg, the former speaker of Democratic Primary, but won the Indiana House, is not the another term last month. man he once was, figuratively Democrats such as Ells- and literally. He is 75 pounds worth, who succeeds John lighter than he was when he Hostetler, have signed no-tax served as the mustachioed increase pledges. “I think the speaker of the House. He has Democratic Party is doing a survived cancer. His oratory in little bit better than the Repub- Indianapolis has moved from lican Party of moving back to the chamber behind the statue the middle,” he said. of Oliver P. Morton at the State Gregg has been a familiar House to radio studios where face at Jefferson-Jackson Day he has a show every Saturday dinners in the past year. He morning on WIBC. estimated he has made 35 to Gregg, who works with 40 political appearances. He’s McHale’s old law firm, Bingham done it in part because Demo- McHale, may some day reap- Former House Speaker John Gregg with Rex Early at a crats have few recognizable pear on the political scene as a Vincennes University event in 2005. (HPR Photo by Brian A. statewide names. Other than candidate. He had been men- Howey) himself and former Secretary tioned as a possible candidate of State Joe Hogsett, there are for the seat Brad Ellsworth just few with the exception of Reps. won in southern Indiana. Julia Carson and Pete Visclosky, he said. During his visit to Logansport for the presentation At 52, Gregg has a political resume, but no of a portrait of Frank McHale to the community, Gregg did clear sign that he has a political future that involves an not rule out being a candidate for lieutenant governor in election. “When I ran, I said I’d never run for anything 2008. But much of that decision is predicated on another again. My daughter told me when you leave office volun- decision, one Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson alone can tarily, people assume you’re running for something,” he make. “I would say our best candidate would be Bart Peter- said. “Everybody just segues that to ‘you’re running.’ It’s a son, the mayor of Indianapolis,” Gregg said when asked lot of fun and with the party faithful out there, there is a lot about candidates the Democrats could field to run against of concern over Gov. Daniels. We’ve just got to see Mitch Daniels in 2008. how that plays out.” “He’s got name recognition in central Indiana In Indianapolis, Peterson ally Mike O’Connor of where 40 percent of the voters live and see the Indianapo- Bose Associates said Tuesday the balance with any party lis Star every day. He can raise money. He’s had success in ticket will have to be more than geographic to appeal to Indianapolis dealing with some really major issues. I think voters. He acknowledged there are many question marks Bart would be the one who could best do it.” that have to be answered before the party begins lining up When asked if there were any potential candi- behind a 2008 ticket. “I guess what I think my sense of this dates for lieutenant governor in Sanborn, the Knox County is a lot of what happens next hinges on what and when community where he lives, Gregg smiled. “There would be Bart Peterson makes a decision. It’s sort of based on the good candidates probably in northern Knox County, that basis of everybody being in a hold pattern until he makes HOWEY Political Report Page 9 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Dec. 7, 2006

a decision,” O’Connor said. consolidate city and township fire departments. Democrats Peterson faces a run for a third term next year. If made serious inroads in three formerly GOP stronghold he wins in November, he would face a potential primary townships, providing policy openings for future fire consoli- race for governor the following May. But Peterson is not the dations. only name being talked about when conversations about As for speculation on other potential candidates, 2008 roll around. State Sen. Richard Young of Milltown, the O’Connor was skeptical that U.S. Rep.-Elect Baron Hill minority leader, is a possible, along with Evansville Mayor would be interested. “I have talked with him and Baron is Jonathan Weinzapfel. Then there is the Kathy Davis factor. really focused on becoming the best congressman he can The Harvard-educated first female lieutenant governor in be.” Indiana history could still be in the mix. There are wild O’Connor noted that former Lt. Gov. Kathy Davis cards to consider. Former Rep. Lee Hamilton is probably has “stayed active” and has been “doing some fundraising.” a better fit for Washington than Indianapolis, but retiring Purdue President Martin Jischke also has been mentioned. National Journal’s take Jischke’s commitment to Purdue ends next year. Lou Jacobson of the National Journal rates Indiana O’Connor sees many strengths for a Gregg candi- as the fourth most likely state where the governorship can dacy. “I love John Gregg. I think John is a mile-a-minute change hands. He rates Louisiana guy. John Gregg would cer- Gov. Kathleen Blanco, indicted tainly be a very active candidate Kentucky Gov. Ernie Fletcher, and and would be very entertaining an open seat as at the same time. I’ve known more vulnerable. Here’s Jacobson’s John personally for a long time. assessment on Indiana: Daniels He’s got a good grasp of the is in the doghouse for his lease of issues. John’s probably in the state toll roads, his closure of local same boat as everyone else. motor vehicles offices and for wad- He’s playing the wait-and-see ing into the question of time zones. game of what Bart Peterson “Hoosiers are just very resistant does.” to change, and Gov. Daniels is a Meanwhile, as Repub- change agent,” said one Indiana licans prepare their chants of political observer. “Four more years” for Daniels, Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel kicks off his re- But some say that Daniels the question more Democrats could replicate the success of Cali- have to be thinking is whether election campaign earlier this week. (Evansville Courier & Press Photo) fornia Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger there will be a Gregg-orian chant (R), who looked like a loser just a at their Jefferson-Jackson Day year before his easy re-election bid Dinners in 2008. this year. Daniels’ policies are designed to boost the rust belt state’s long-term growth prospects, and by November Peterson decision in January 2008, many of his initiatives may have created a sizable O’Connor told HPR on Tuesday that Mayor Peterson number of jobs, said Brian Howey, who publishes the is expected to make his political decisions known in Janu- Howey Political Report, a newsletter based in Indianap- ary. olis. O’Connor said that Peterson will assume the presi- Moreover, the Democrats lack an obvious challeng- dency of the National League of Cities on Saturday. er, though Indianapolis Mayor Bart Peterson could clear the Whether Peterson would seek a third term, field if he got in. Other possible Democrats include former O’Connor’s stock answer has been and continues to be that House Speaker John Gregg, State Sen. Vi Simpson, Senate he is “doing everything that needs to be done with regards Minority Leader Richard Young, former Lt. Gov. Kathy Davis of ‘07.” But, he added, “I don’t have a firm answer.” and Evansville Mayor Jonathan Weinzapfel. Peterson has been mum on several key public “With a Democratic House and a Republican Sen- policy aspects, such as whether he would support or op- ate, gridlock is very possible,” said one Indiana . pose Gov. Mitch Daniels’ Commerce Connector outer loop “This is probably good for the governor — he can blast from Pendleton to the Indianapolis International Airport. Democrats for standing in the way of progress, while he Some have expressed concern about that highway suck- also enjoys the benefits of them protecting him from him- ing economic vitality out of the capital city. Peterson is also self.” v watching the recount involving Warren Township Trustee Tom Marendt, one of the major obstacles in his drive to HOWEY Political Report Page 10 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Dec. 7, 2006

looks skeptically at trade agreements because he believes A Hoosier focal point for that the United States has failed to enforce trade rules. Hill, who has patched up his relations with organized labor, the globalization debate wants to include strong labor and environmental provisions Daniels touts foreign direct investment; in future pacts. Congressional Democrats question impact “I believe I was overzealous with a lot of these trade deals that were made,” he told reporters in Washing- By MARK SCHOEFF JR. ton in November. “I’m not going to just be an automatic WASHINGTON - Indiana may become a focal point vote (for trade). There are too many people who are being of tension about globalization. On one side are political left out. We’ve got to be engaged, but we have to do a bet- leaders who seek to take advantage of a flat world. On the ter job of putting this together.” other are those concerned about Hoosiers who have been Hill’s new Democratic colleagues in the Indiana flattened by global competition. delegation--Brad Ellsworth (8th CD) and Joe Donnelly (2nd Gov. Mitch Daniels stakes much of his economic CD)-- share his trade misgivings. “I’m okay with fair trade,” development strategy on Indiana’s ability to secure foreign Ellsworth said in Washington in November. “We’ve direct investment. One of his major achievements was got to keep as many good-paying jobs here in America as landing a new $550 million Honda manufacturing facility we can.” near Greensburg earlier this year. Donnelly, who represents a district that is home The plant is projected to pro- to many blue-collar manufacturing jobs duce 200,000 vehicles annually and in South Bend, Elkhart and Kokomo, employ 2000 people. Indiana pledged blames an uneven global playing field in more than $140 million in tax breaks part for the woes that have beset Delphi and infrastructure improvements to Corp. “Our district has been hurt very help attract Honda. badly by unfair trade,” Donnelly said “New investment can go any- while where, and it’s a big win when Honda in Washington last month. “What I be- picks Indiana, when Toyota picks Indi- lieve in is fair trade.” ana, when Rolls Royce picks Indiana, Another Hoosier Democrat who when British Petroleum picks Indiana,” has weighed in on the trade debate is Daniels said during a November media Sen. Evan Bayh. Bayh, who attended availability in Washington. several union rallies with Donnelly to When an international consor- stoke turnout, is a proponent of ex- tium chose to pay $3.8 billion to lease Gov. Daniels with Honda CEO Kondo in panding trade adjustment assistance for the Indiana Toll Road, however, Daniels Greensburg last summer. (Photo courtesy workers and companies. faced stiff resistance. of Gov. Daniels) But Bayh also was sharply criti- He contends that it is misguid- cized by Washington Post columnist ed to turn away foreign investment. Sebastian Mallaby in October for writing “It would be very ironic at a time when we are winning as to colleagues to urge them to support the continuation of we have not in recent memory if we were to say, ‘You’re a steel tariff that Bayh argues shields domestic producers foreign. You’re alien. Take your dollars and jobs with you.’ against dumping by foreign firms. That’s a formula for poverty,” he said. “We can’t put up “This is not a policy that protects workers, as a wall. We shouldn’t tell people we want the world to go Bayh’s letter pretended,” Mallaby wrote. “It’s a sell-out to away. We need to get out in the world and win. I think we a self-serving lobby. Bayh stands out because centrists are.” like him have traditionally been pro-trade and because his sights are set on the White House. Presidential aspirants are supposed to champion the national interest, not special Democratic trade misgivings interests.” But the who now represents the area where Honda is locating its plant has reservations about another aspect of trade--the agreements that the Helping those left behind U.S. establishes with other countries. Despite the seeming divergence between enthusi- Baron Hill, who regained the 9th CD seat by de- astic globalization advocates like Daniels and Sen. Richard feating Republican Rep. Mike Sodrel, used to be an ardent Lugar and skeptical Hoosier Democrats may be bridged in free trader. He was among the first Democrats in 2000 the new Congress. to endorse normal trading relations with China. Now, he “We move forward on trade, but we do it in HOWEY Political Report Page 11 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Dec. 7, 2006

conjunction with policies that help workers adjust to the Congress to seek ways to help those who are left behind. insecurities, to the variability, that comes with freer trade,” “We’ve become so simple minded about it that we call it said Lori Kletzer, professor of economics at the University of protectionist,” she said. Santa Cruz. Kletzer said Americans As the Bush admin- would embrace a balanced istration seeks renewal this approach. “Constituents un- summer of trade promotion derstand there are benefits authority (TPA), Democrats to trade but also costs,” she may demand an increase in said. assistance to workers who Daniels will continue to suffer trade-related job highlight the gains of global losses. The promotion rule engagement--and be the allows Congress only to vote chief salesman for Indiana up or down on a trade pact, Congressmen-elect Joe Donnelly, Brad Ellsworth and Baron Hill in the world marketplace. not amend it. differ with Gov. Daniels on trade issues. (HPR Photo by Brian A. “Every day that I’m in this Congressional failure Howey) job, that’s what we’re going to approve TPA would “send to do,” he said. “Every one a bad signal to the world,” of those (foreign) dollars is Kletzer said. But she emphasized that it’s legitimate for going to hire a Hoosier.” v

Two ways to look at Indiana

"It's about explaining the vagaries of Indiana to outsiders who can't comprehend that all change is considered bad by Hoosiers," - Ed Feigenbaum Indiana Legislative Insight

"Change is good in this business," - Brian A. Howey The Howey Political Report Political Report Online

HOWEYWeekly Briefing on Indiana Politics HOWEY Political Report Page 12 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Dec. 7, 2006

John B. Judis, The New Republic- It’s a , Nebraska, Florida, and Montana, where there is not mistake to put too much stock in what presidential can- a powerful labor movement or a plethora of pro-Democratic didates say--whether it is Franklin Roosevelt promising in organizations, and in , where many of the credit 1932 to balance the budget or George H.W. Bush pledg- companies are based, Democrats often look to the credit ing in 1988 not to raise taxes. It’s often more important card companies for campaign contributions. And the com- to look at what they actually do. A case in point may be panies and their executives often oblige.The bankruptcy bill Indiana Senator Evan Bayh, who has already signaled his was their payoff. v intention to run for the presidency in 2008. He served as chairman of the Democratic Leadership Council; helped Matthew Tully, Indianapolis Star - The found the New Democrat Coalition in the Senate, a caucus Indiana Democratic Party demonstrated once again this of self-described moderates; and serves as an honorary week why it is barely worth listening to. For years now, chair of another centrist group, the . But, in the the state party organization has stood for little more than last two years, Bayh, with his eye on the trashing Gov. Mitch Daniels. Rather than adding Democratic primary electorate, has been even a shred of meaningful discussion to the taking decidedly liberal stands. Bayh voted day’s debates, the party relies on talking points against the confirmation of Supreme Court to scare, exaggerate and divide. The Democrats Justices John Roberts and Samuel Alito Jr. showed as much Wednesday, sending a point- What to think? One gauge of Bayh’s convic- less and mean-spirited news release minutes tion and character might be what he did on after Daniels announced his plan to privatize March 13, 2001. That day, the Senate was welfare services. “Greed is not a moral value,” debating so-called “Bankruptcy Reform,” a read the headline of the release, which made bill promoted by the credit card companies sure to highlight that word, “greed,” because it that made it much harder for consumers to escape debt fits into the party’s longstanding effort to portray Daniels as by declaring bankruptcy. Congress had passed a version a mean, corporate rich guy. The governor, the cliched news of the bill in 2000, but Bill Clinton had vetoed it. Now, with release added, is “helping his buddies make money” and George W. Bush backing the bill and Republicans in control doesn’t care about “our neediest citizens.” The release of both houses, it was heading toward a vote. Some Sen- ignored previous welfare privatization steps taken by ate Democrats tried to introduce amendments that would Democrats and once again made clear the party will add a benefit consumers. Diane Feinstein of California and Chris dose of partisanship to any debate it can. Believe me, there Dodd of Connecticut proposed amendments that would are valid reasons to criticize Daniels. I spent a recent col- protect minors--particularly college students--against inor- umn, for instance, condemning his questionable suburban dinate pressure from credit card companies. In 2001, Nellie toll road plan, and rarely has a politician sold his policies Mae, the college loan agency, found, 83 percent of under- so poorly or responded to fair criticism with more “I’m the graduates had at least one credit card (up from 67 percent smartest guy in the room” prickliness. And, yes, party orga- in 1998), and 47 percent of these had four or more cards. nizations exist for one reason: to score political points. But More than one fifth left school with debts between $3,000 after a long year of nasty campaign sniping, by both sides, and $7,000--and were therefore less able to pay back couldn’t the Democrats play nice for just a few weeks? their college loans. Feinstein offered a very mild amend- Couldn’t they try to be a serious player in policy debates? ment to the bankruptcy bill. It capped the debt limit on Apparently not. Day after day, the Indiana Democratic credit cards for minors at $2,500. Dodd’s amendment was Party lobs knee-jerk personal attacks at Daniels. Demo- somewhat tougher. Companies could only sign up minors cratic Party staffers, who are actually a likeable and bright if their parents co-signed the credit card agreement or if crew, have such disdain for Daniels that he could propose the minors could prove financial independence or agreed a third weekend day and they’d say he was creating 24 to take a financial management course. Both amendments more hours for his “corporate cronies” to count their cash. lost--Feinstein’s by 55 to 42 and Dodd’s by 58 to 41. The Continuing its attack this week, the party slammed Daniels great majority of Democrats voted for these amendments, for recently saying, “If we’re going to have real economic but not Bayh. He joined the credit card companies and progress . . . we’re going to have to have America’s stron- the Republicans in opposing both. Why did he do it? Bayh gest, most vibrant private sector making profits.” Yes, the didn’t say during the debate, and he didn’t issue a state- Democrats actually took time to criticize Daniels for dar- ment afterwards. The fact is that they were minor votes ing to hope U.S. companies make a profit. Show of hands: and probably ones that Bayh expected the greater public How many people don’t want their own employers -- or the (but not the credit companies) to ignore. And there is an companies in their 401(k) plans -- to make a profit? The obvious explanation for why Bayh would take the credit Democratic Party has become a boy-who-cried-wolf organi- card companies’ side. In states like Indiana, , Ar- zation, screaming about everything Daniels does. v HOWEY Political Report Page 13 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, Dec. 7, 2006 Tribune urges Obama includes some proposals the governor Hoosier soldiers to run for president could order administratively, others that would require a change in state question Iraq pullout CHICAGO - An editorial in the FORT WAYNE - Local soldiers law by the Legislature, and still oth- Chicago Tribune argued that Illinois say they eventually want troops out ers that would need both. Entitled Sen. Barack Obama (D) should run for of Iraq, but that pulling them out “PROBE” or “Program Results: An Out- president in 2008. The Tribune related, too fast won’t work (Fort Wayne come-Based Evaluation,” the efficiency “When a leader evokes the enthu- Journal Gazette). Their remarks report was ordered by the Legislature siasm that were in reaction to a bluntly worded almost two years ago. It was posted Obama does, Washington report released Wednes- Tuesday on the Web site of the state he should day that, among other suggestions, Office of Management and Budget, or recognize urges a drastic realignment of troops OMB. One of its dozens of recommen- that he has in Iraq. The announcement came as dations already has become reality: something Fort Wayne resident Army Sgt. An- About 70 state government employees special to thony Garcia was training at Hunter who handle printing, copying and mail offer, not Army Airfield near Savannah, Ga., to services for the Department of Admin- in 2012 or be deployed overseas. The 22-year- istration and other agencies were noti- 2016, but old Snider High School graduate said fied Tuesday that their jobs are being right now. ... No one else has shown he supports the idea of pulling troops eliminated. They can be offered jobs a comparable talent for appealing to out of Iraq but only at the right time. with a private vendor, or, in a process the centrist instincts of the American “It’s good we finally have a timeline to called “competitive sourcing,” groups people -- instincts that often go un- get out of the Middle East, but I don’t of employees can bid against a private satisfied as each party labors to rally know if we should be leaving if they’re vendor for the contract to provide the its most uncompromising factions. His not prepared to take care of them- same services, the notification said. magnetic style and optimism would selves,” he said by phone from Sa- State Sen. Lindel Hume, D-Princeton, draw many disenchanted Americans vannah. “I think we should be out of said some of the recommendations back into the political process. He and there, but to do it just because some may make sense and the Legislature the nation have little to lose and much people aren’t happy is stupid.” Garcia ought to look at them. But some n to gain from his candidacy.” will deploy in February and expects to such as consolidating National Guard be gone for about a year. “How are armories n could face strong public you going to hand over the country?” Bayh to travel to opposition, he predicted. asked Army Reserve Sgt. Zack Hakey, New Hampshire 21. “Are you going to say, ‘Tough luck, MANCHESTER, N.H. – The 28 counties miss have a good time?’ ” Manchester (NH) Union Leader notes, Indiana Sen. Evan Bayh, the self-pro- tax reporting deadline INDIANAPOLIS -Nearly a third claimed “David” among Goliaths, will Legislators warn Lake of Indiana’s counties – including Allen try to get a sliver of the spotlight this – missed a deadline to supply prop- County about tax breaks weekend with a reception for his All- CROWN POINT - Lake County erty information to the state, which America PAC in Manchester on Sat- legislators are warning of layoffs of could delay next year’s property tax urday, then Sunday receptions at the teachers, police, firefighters and other bills (Fort Wayne Journal Gazette). To homes of Sens. Molly Kelly and Peter public servants if the state fails to encourage compliance, the state has Burling.” withdraw tax breaks promised to area threatened to withhold tax revenues landlords and businesses (Times of from the tardy counties. In northeast Northwest Indiana). Lake County Report targets more state Indiana, Steuben, Noble and Kosciusko legislators are warning of layoffs of counties also received the letters jobs; 70 get pink slips teachers, police, firefighters and other about missing the deadline. Melissa WOODBURN - Possibly priva- public servants if the state fails to Henson, commissioner of the Depart- tizing license branches, consolidating withdraw tax breaks promised to area ment of Local Government Finance, National Guard armories and state landlords and businesses. “Its just sent a letter last week to 28 county police posts and eliminating some devastating, said Rep. Chet Dobis, D- assessors saying she was concerned programs were among the sweeping Merrillville, the senior member of the that the information has not been recommendations in a report Gov. Northwest Indiana legislative delega- submitted from each of the counties Mitch Daniels’ administration issued tion. v this week (Corbin, Evansville Cou- despite the fact it was due in the sum- rier & Press). The 56-page report mer.