VOLUME FIVE NUMBER TWO SUMMER 1988 1 F RL PROTEST PATHOLOGY The Piefermaritzburg Legacy 86) UNIVERSITY OF NATAL. ANC DATA Centre for Applied Social Sciences, Insurge, it Acts 1976-1987 INDABA DILEMMA The Economic F actor CORRUPTION COUPS Bridge Over the River Kei CINDERELLA S HOOLIN Reforming Rural Education BLICAN ENTERPRISES 4 THE D A rTT F» We're as important to the man in the street as we are to the men in Diagonal Street. Being one of the top performers on the stock exchange means a better standard of living for our shareholders, .1 ITU YE oi- But being involved in the country's economic development means the creation 3 A.PS? VttS of more wealth and an improved standard of living for every South African. O.'WMT Wr' It's an involvement that has seen us establish coal mines, stainless steel works, Mi cement, glass and other factories to Hp effectively utilise the country's vast mt resources, to generate more exports, create more jobs, and contribute significantly to the nation's growth. Involvement means responsibility — In education and training, in helping to establish more businesses, and playing a meaningful role in the community — ensuring not only the country's future, but yours too. •k •h >W RAND Mining, cemen ilding supplies, earthmoving equipment, motor vehicles, t food, packaging and textiles •IBMB i NDICATOR SOUTH AFRICA is published four times a year by the Centre for Social and Development Studies at the University of Natal, Durban. Opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the Editorial Committee and should not be taken to represent the policies of companies or organisations sponsoring or advertising in the publication. aAll material herein is copyright © INDICATOR SOUTH AFRICA or individual authors, except in the case of short extracts for review or comment. Permission to republish or reproduce any part of this pub- lication must be obtained from the publisher. Director Professor Lawrence Schiemmer Editor/Research Co-ordinator Graham Howe Production Editor Linda Ciiliers Liaison/IR Research Myrna Berkowitz Labour Research Mark Bennett Development Research Vijay Makanjee Documentary Research Deborah Quin Secretary Denise Sperring Editorial Committee Prof Lawrence Schiemmer, Prof Hermann Giliomee, Dr Valerie Moller, Indicator S A Project Team. DESIGN & LAYOUT Graphicos • REPRODUCTION Hirt & Carter (Natal) (Pty) Ltd • PRINTING Creda (Natal) (Pty) Ltd ISSN 0259-188x MEETING THE CHALLENGE OF CHANGE In the sign language of the road our highly- visible Emblem stands for moving power and product excellence. But there is another, a far less obtrusive face of Shell. One that is focussed on tomorrow's world, seeking out the problems and finding viable solutions. That is why Shell are actively involved in developing natural resources like coal and metals. Researching innovative oil and chemical products. Encouraging the development of human resources with bursaries and scholarships. Working to make tomorrow a good day for South Africa and its peoples. Go we!I.Go Shell. SWIFT ADVERTISING |PT pOII. •' M W@tSlT@t 9 Factionalism in Resistance Movements Lawrence Schiemmer 13 The Maritzburg Feuds Wyndham Hartley The Renewed Emergency: Unrest chronology Deborah Quin 16 Select Indicators of Political Conflict IPSA Data 20 fCOfcOMie WOWITOft INDABA IN FOCUS 24 The Equity Equation Jill Nattrass & Julian May 28 The Limits to Redistribution Peter Corbett 31 A Regional Debate Revisited Gerhard Mare Economic Outlook Merle Holden & Mike McGrath 34 IM^Ml M 1 T^^Ji A Purge of the Two-Armed Bandits IPSA Interview with Major-General Holomisa 39 Another One Fiew the Coup's Nest IPSA Research 41 The First 'Homeland': Self-rule, misrule or failed experiment? Vijay Makan/ee 43 Polarised Images of Post-Apartheid Agriculture Anne Vaughan 48 URBAN MSU0S Three Years of Turmoil Ken Harfshorne 53 African Matric Results 1985 — 1987 Data Base 55 Reducing the Urban/Rural Gap Monica Bot 57 The Inverted Funnel: Peri-urban schooling Adele Gordon 61 RURt & REGIONAL MONITOR Organising the President's Men Mark Bennett 67 Trade Unions Sector by Sector IPSA Directory 71 Worker Detentions: Absent without leave? Theo Heffer 74 'Band-Aid' & the Self-Managed Firm Eddie Webster 78 ERRATUM: Table of Contents The Industrial Monitor and the Rural & Regional Monitor headings have been transposed above. future. We at Johnson & Johnson prefer to take a long term view of things with an optimism borne of a sound reputation. A reputation based on superior levels of customer service and backed by personnel whose attention to product is equally uncompromising. By constantly reassessing, developing and setting higher standards, we aim to continue to provide hospitals and their allied professions with an even more comprehensive range of professional products, serviced by our own specialized divisions: Critikon. Ethicon. AndSurgikos. Look out for Johnson & Johnson. You'll discover a company setting new f PROFESSIONAL PRODUCTS PROFESSIONELE PRODUKTE P.O. Box273 New Road, Halfway standards. Now. And in the future. Halfway House 1685 House. Tel 805-2110 Helping the hands that heal. astmsa smim C jk Indicator Project South Africa (IPSA) is an companies and foundations in South Africa and abroad, I applied research and publication unit which now who consider it part of their social responsibility pro- (] falls under the auspices of the Centre for Social gramme to support the independent investigation and •cH and Development Studies (CSDS) at the Uni- analysis of issues in all areas of South African society. A versity of Natal. The newly renamed centre is the result of broad spectrum of individuals and institutes in the public a merger between the Centre for Applied Social Sciences and private sectors also subscribe to the Indicator S/l joui - (which formerly encompassed Indicator SA) and the Deve- nal and information service. Interested subscribers should lopment Studies Unit. The new association of units should contact the liaison officer directly at the IPSA offices. further expand research interests and expertise within the Indicator S/l draws on university-based research findings university community, thereby enriching the scope of our and commissions reports from prominent academics and publication. practitioners in the field, besides maintaining a project re- Indicator 5/1 was established in 1982 in response to the evi- search team which monitors issues, undertakes special dent need to develop statistical indicators and monitor key studies and makes regular contributions. The main thrust developments in South African society during a critical of the IPSA information service is to provide objective, phase of flux and change. The project aims to contribute practical, policy-directed research. We strive to quantify to informed debate among key decision makers through published commentary and findings, through providing providing a data analysis, trend diagnosis and policy hard data, survey results and comparative research. prognosis service. To promote these objectives, IPSA pub- Simultaneously, IPSA initiates debate on controversial lishes a quarterly journal divided into five 'monitors' - issues by inviting a wide range of partisan perspectives, in- namely political, economic, rural and regional, urban, and cluding government, labour, community, corporate industrial - as well as producing occasional focuses on the executives, and spokespeople representing other key par- major issues of the day. ticipants in the change process. Financially, the Project relies on donor subscriptions from 'Indicator South Africa, an authoritative academic journal that attempts to come to terms with the facts behind what are otherwise emotive political issues.' Business Day, January 1987 'The Project has again confirmed its ability to tackle major problems of the country, presenting the full scope of opinion.' The Daily News, October 1987 'The government cannot argue with facts and Indicator SA has a habit of producing disturbing statistics.' The Natal Mercury, May 1987 'Indicator SA, that most valuable barometer of social trends.' Sunday Times, September 1986 'That absolutely indispensable publication... We need better research, the kind of research published inter alia in Indicator SA.' Cape Times, August 1984 'The latest Indicator SA publication... a timely and penetrating assessment of the government's local and regional reform programme.' The Natal Mercury, January 1986 The staff of Indicator S/l express their great sadness at the recent loss of Professor Jill Nattrass, one of the founder members of our Project. Her many important contributions to the journal, along with her editorial input and interest, will be greatly missed. With the compliments of CARES • FOR ME • FOR YOU • FOR HEALTH • FOR MOTHERS • FOR HOUSEWIVES • FOR BABIES • FOR CHILDREN • FOR SCHOOLS • FOR GOLFERS • FOR RUNNERS • FOR HYGIENE • FOR COMMUNICATION ® FOR EVERYBODY • FOR PARENTS • FOR DRIVERS • FOR TAXIS • FOR WORKERS • FOR STUDENTS • FOR BUSINESSMEN • FOR BUSINESSWOMEN •FOR HOSPITALS • FOR NURSES • FOR PATIENTS • FOR CYCLISTS • FOR MINERS • FOR PLUMBERS • FOR PEOPLE « FOR GRANDPARENTS • FOR FARMERS » FOR THE COUNTRY AND THE FUTURE • FOR TEACHERS • FOR DOERS • FOR FRIENDS • FOR JIVERS • FOR SHOPPERS • FOR HOUSEHOLDERS • FOR RELIGION • FOR T.V.ADDICTS • FOR COOKS • FOR HOMES • FOR DOG OWNERS • FOR THE YOUNG • FOR THE OLD FOR EVERYONE AND EVERYTHING FACTIONALISM in RESISTANCE MOVEMENTS By Prof Lawrence Schiemmer, Director, Centre for Policy Studies, VV/Ys Graduate School of Business South Africa ii not a gentle