International Journal of Creative Research and Studies Volume-2 Issue-10, October-2018

INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CREATIVE RESEARCH AND STUDIES www.ijcrs.org ISSN-0249-4655

A POLITICAL ECONOMY ANALYSIS OF INCONCLUSIVE ELECTION IN

UHEMBE AHAR CLEMENT DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE, FEDERAL UNIVERSITY LAFIA PMB 146, LAFIA NASARAWA STATE, NIGERIA

Abstract This paper is an attempt to proffer a political economy reflection on the new phenomenon of inconclusive election in Nigeria. The paper argues that inconclusive election in Nigeria ought to have been a political instrument to strengthen the electoral process and make it robust and steady the polity but it appears to have exacerbated the weak electoral process. By way of Marxist political economy analysis, the paper posit that the new dangerous phenomenon have provided financial burden and security problems to the three tires of the Nigerian government; Federal, State and local Government. The paper investigates the cost and causes of inconclusive election and its sadism which is becoming legendary. The paper postulates that the serious signal of inconclusive election in Nigeria has the spectra of actually reversing the democratic being of the past 19yrs if care is not taken. We have to just nip it in the bud and do everything possible. The objective of the paper is to recommend that, for a free, fair and credible election, the independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) must not only produce guidelines and regulations to protect sanity of the votes but must be seen to be unbiased.

Keywords: Inconclusive election, run off, re run off, bye election INEC

www.ijcrs.org Page | 102

International Journal of Creative Research and Studies ISSN-0249-4655

Introduction The subject matter under investigation is the discourse of the political economy analysis of Hydra monster called inconclusive election. Professor a professor of History and International studies in the PUNCH newspaper of August 20, 2016 avert that he and his commission would not be able to guarantee conclusive election in 2019, lay credence to the concept of inconclusive election gain prominence hence the need to do an X lay of the subject matter through the lens of Marxist political economy application. The problem associated with inconclusive election is enormous ranging from financial burden, security, awareness and mass education.

The aim and objectives of this analysis is to highlight on the possible dangers that have arises from inconclusive elections like combating the concept of inconclusive election to substitute for real election especially in a situation where one contender is not sure of winning at the first balloting. This person might result to promoting acts that are capable of providing grounds for inconclusive election. This culture or phenomenon if allowed to continue may become a major danger to democracy. We are not unmindful of key contenders arising from the growth in democratic participatory theory with increased new value attached to the dividend of democracy. This new consciousness can activates mass voters participation that will reduced the margin of winners and create a plat form arising from any disruption in the pulling units thereby rendering election or such a unit inconclusive.

This paper therefore seeks to address these dynamics associated with inconclusive elections in Nigeria. The lens and instruments are therefore the Marxist political economy which probe the in depth issues and rejects the superficial analysis with the view to arriving at it historical dialectics analysis. The paper has provided tables of selected cases of inconclusive election as evidence in the growth of this hydro monster phenomenon.

Conceptual Frame of Reference Election is a formal decision- making process by which a population chooses an individual to hold public office. It has also been described as a celebration of democracy whereby the electorates are given the opportunity to elect leaders who will take charge of governance within a given period of time.

Indeed, because it is a process and not an event, election management bodies worldwide deploy human and material resources in a bid to enhance free, fair and credible process; this, perhaps, underscores why the electoral cycle stipulates pre-election, election and post-election activities.

In recent times in Nigeria, however, the process has assumed a new but dangerous dimension, with its history becoming replete with inconclusive polls.

For the purpose of clarity, better understanding and conceptual operationalization, it is germane to consider the basic concepts that will be often used in the subject matter of inconclusive election.

Elections According to INEC, an election can be defined as a process where people vote for preferred candidates or political parties as representative in government.

General Election General election means election held in the federation which may be at all levels and at regular intervals to select officers to serve after the expiration of the full terms of the predecessors.

Bye election A bye election is an election to replace a member of any of our legislative houses following a vacancy occasioned by death. www.ijcrs.org Page | 103

International Journal of Creative Research and Studies Volume-2 Issue-10, October-2018

A run-off election A run-off election is an election conducted when the first election falls to produce a clear winner for the position of president or governor. This can happen when the candidate with the highest votes does not have the require vote spread in the affected state/federation.

Re run election A re run election is an election conducted when the first one was marred by malpractices or when correct procedures are not followed.

An Inconclusive election An inconclusive election is an election where the total number of registered votes in unites where the results are cancelled or where the election are post pond, are sufficient to cause a change in the outcome of the election in the affected constituency.

Historical Dialectic of Inconclusive Election in Nigeria The Independent National Electoral Commission stated that inconclusive election is not new in Nigeria electoral history. Dr. Oluwole Osazeuzzi, made the declaration at a CSO Expert Group meeting on electoral Reform organized by the commission in conjuction with the Independent Service Delivery Monitoring Group Abuja (2018). He cited instances of election that were inconclusive in the past such as the 1979 Unity Party of Nigeria that lead to the challenge of that presidential election between late chief Obafemi Awolowo and Alhaji .

Osaze uzzi (2018) argues that if the commission doesn’t take decision of declaring flawed election inconclusive it would mean a reward or an encouragement of violence and malpractices, claiming that doing otherwise will amount to a breach of the constitution, the Electoral Act and the fundamentals of Nigeria’s democratic ethos.

The constitution and the Act provides that where there is over voting, section 53 of the Electoral Act requires INEC to declare the result null and void, make no return on the election result and fix another date to conduct the election where the number of registered voters will make a difference to the outcome of the election. Sub section 26(2) of the Electoral ACT states that, ‘‘there shall be no return for the election until pulling has taken place in the area or areas affected’’ while sub section 4 of section 26 stipulates a provision that a declaration might be made if the result in the affected area would not affect the overall outcome of the election. Sub section 5 of the section grants focus to any of the candidate to challenge INEC’s decision in this regard.

Election is a formal decision making process by which a population chooses an individual to hold public office. It has also being described as a celebration of democracy whereby the electorates are given the opportunity to elect leaders who will take charge of governance within a given period of time. This important instrument needs to be handled with greater care than it is current being done in Nigeria under the umbrella of INEC.

Amina (2018) averred that: ‘‘ faced with circumstances and around with the legal provision, INEC in an attempt to be fair to all, and to move away from the established syndrome of ‘‘announce the result at any cost and leave it to the courts’’ usually involves the relevant sections to declare election inconclusive pending determination of the winner through supplementary elections’’ however, as the 2018 gubernatorial inconclusive election was announced, hopes of many Nigerians in the different political parties were dashed.

Political analysis opines that cases of inconclusive elections in the country are rampant in recent times. The observed that inconclusive elections occurred recently in governorship election in Taraba, Imo, Kogi, Bayelsa, www.ijcrs.org Page | 104

International Journal of Creative Research and Studies ISSN-0249-4655

Plateau, Akwa Ibom, Rivers and in the FCT Area council election. While critics attribute the development to incompetence on the part of Independence National Electoral Commission (INEC), perspective stake holders insist that INEC has become more meticulous and compliant with the provision of the electoral Act.

This observation notwithstanding, analysts note that elections in recent times have become keener with the introduction of some values and checks mechanism to the country’s electoral system. According to them, each vote now counts more than ever which in most cases necessitates a second round of balloting.

What has become more disturbing is the statement credited to a professor of History and International studies Yakubu Mohammed who is the chairman of Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) in 2016 when he alluded to the fact that he cannot guarantee a conclusive election in 2019. This elusion is noxious and obnoxious platitude to justify the possibility of inconclusive election which will if allow to continue produce a tragedy of the common in which all citizens belief that general election means election held in the federation which may be at all levels and at regular intervals to select officers to serve after the expiration of the full terms of the predecessors denied.

The table below provided a graphic analysis of the subject matter under discussion.

Table 1: Records of Inclusive Elections in Selected States S/n State Candidate Party Votes Year Margin Circumstances The nature of Cancelled election votes 1 Imo Okorocha APGA 385, 671 2015 79, 529 Election do Gubernatorial 144,715 Ihedoha PDP 306, 142 not take place in some wards 2 Anambra Dora Akunyili APGA 66, 273 2011 697 Election do Gubernatorial Nil Chris Ngige ACN 65, 576 not take place in the ward 3 Kogi Abubakar Audu APC 240, 867 2015 41, 353 Margin was Gubernatorial 49, 953 Wada Idris PDP 199, 514 less than cancellation 4 Bayelsa Dickson PDP 105, 710 2013 79, 754 Contraption in Gubernatorial 49, 953 Sylva APC 72, 594 Southern Ijaw where Sylva the entire 120 votes 5 Anambra Obiano APGA 174, 710 2013 79, 754 Election do Gubernatorial 113, 113 Tony Nwoye PDP 94, 956 not take place in some wards Source: Author’s Compilation, 2018.

These few cases presented above are very good examples of inconclusive elections in Nigeria and in most cases, The issues boarder on stake holders and electoral process, political parties, the candidates and the security agents. Elections are about preference aggregations. They are about recruiting leaders on the basis that a leader is capable of commanding the majority of the votes in a constituency.

There must be a mental shift among the Nigerian politicians to be gracious in defeat to accept that they can indeed lose an election but the body (INEC) saddled with the responsibility must remain absolutely unbiased.

A summary of the technology used from 1999 to 2017 are shown in the Table 2 below.

www.ijcrs.org Page | 105

International Journal of Creative Research and Studies Volume-2 Issue-10, October-2018

Table 2: List of various technologies deployed by INEC from 1999 to 2016 for registration of voters, accreditation, voting, collation and transmission of results

S/N Year Voter Registration Days For Data Captured D- Accreditation/ Result Registration Base Voting Collation 1 1999 Pen/Sheets and 14 Days Basic details. no picture NIL NIL NIL Typewritters or finger prints

2 2003 Optical Magnetic 10 Days Basic details and finger YES NIL NIL Recognition prints only Form(OmrForm) *AutomatedFingerPrints Identification System (Afis) 3 2007 *Direct Data Capture 4 Months Basic details, YES Electronic Excel Sheet/E- Machine (Ddcm) photograph, and finger Voters’ Register mail * (Afis) prints (EVR) 4 2011 *Direct Data Capture 21 Days Basic details, YES Electronic Excel Sheet/E- Machine (Ddcm) photograph, and finger Voters’ Register mail * Afis prints (EVR) 5 2015 *Direct DataCapture Continuous Basic details, YES *EVR Election Machine (Ddcm) Voters photograph, and finger *INEC Voters Transparency *ImprovedAfis/Business Registration prints Authentication Administration Rule. (CVR) System And Collation (IVAS)/Smart (e-TRAC) Card Reader (SCR) 6 2016 *Improved Continuous Basic details, YES *EVR *Electronic- *Business Rule. Voters photograph, and finger *IVAS Collation Registration prints Support (E- (CVR) Collation) * e-TRAC Source: Independent National Electoral Commission

However the table has shown incidence of electoral malpractice such as result sheet mutilation, ballot stuffing, manipulation, over voting, alteration of result and hijacking of ballot boxes which has reduced drastically. The introduction of electronic voter register (EVR), automatic finger print indication system (AFIS) and smart card reader (SCR) have all contributed to reduce the incidences of multiple registration and multiple voting to the barest minimum.

CONCLUSION About nine months after Professor Mahmud Yakubu mounted the saddle at the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), conduct of elections is becoming a nightmare. In every state where executive or legislative elections have been conducted by the new team at the commission, the outcome has been inconclusive. This is leading many Nigerians to ask if the INEC as composed now has the technical capacity and will to build on the foundation laid by the Professor Attahiru Jega-led commission.

www.ijcrs.org Page | 106

International Journal of Creative Research and Studies ISSN-0249-4655

Under Jega, the number of litigations following general and bye-elections dropped to all-time low. The confidence of the electorate in the ballot box improved and there was hope that the country was on the way to attaining the international standard in election management.

The 2011 and 2015 elections proved that the former national chairman of the commission was, indeed, a man of integrity; a political scientist who knew his onions. The outcome of the last general elections would stand as the ultimate proof of Professor Jega’s competence and integrity. For the first time, an incumbent President lost to the opposition party’s candidate. It won him accolades and called the attention of the international community to a rare development in the country.

The ascendancy of Professor Yakubu was greeted by many with expectation that he would build on the Jega foundation. He is not unknown to the public service and came in also as a political scientist. However, the performance of the commission under him in recent times has called to question the basis for the initial euphoria. In all elections conducted so far in Kogi, Bayelsa, Rivers, Osun and the Federal Capital Territory, the commission has been scored low by all stakeholders. None was concluded as scheduled; nor could they thus be considered successful.

Whereas the commission under Professor Jega showed incontrovertible zeal to improve on the electoral process and could boast that new features such as the card reader, permanent voter card and a rare will to succeed were introduced, not much could be said for the Yakubu team yet. Under the last leadership, the rate of litigation dropped drastically. At the time Jega mounted the saddle, Nigerians were about losing confidence in the ballot box and thus on the verge of seeking alternative means of accessing political power. But, a trend for the better had started by the time the former Bayero University, Kano vice-chancellor bowed out last year.

Professor Yakubu who was given the task of improving on the Jega standard does not appear to know exactly the public expectation of him. In Kogi State, the logjam that trailed the November 2015 governorship election is linked to the indecisiveness of the commission. Had a winner been declared after the election, there would have been no need for a supplementary poll and the late Prince Abubakar Audu’s running mate, James Faleke, would have succeeded his principal. In Bayelsa, the result of the governorship poll that pitched incumbent Governor Seriake Dickson against the All Progressives Congress’s former state helmsman Timipre Sylva is still being examined by the judiciary, owing largely to inability of the commission to deliver the election on the same day. The Rivers State legislative elections caused a stir as only 10 of the 21 state constituencies had their results declared. In others, owing to widespread violence and malpractices, the polls were declared inconclusive and postponed indefinitely.

We have keenly followed the litany of excuses by the commission following its inability to deliver clean polls in the Federal Capital Territory where the level of enlightenment is high. In the elections conducted on April 9 in the six area councils, only two had the vacancies filled. It is unacceptable that all the commission could deliver are reasons why it has failed in meeting with the standard passed on to it. Nigerians want free and credible elections whose results are made public as scheduled. We are not oblivious of the roles played by other agencies of government in managing the process and the terrible conduct of some politicians and political parties, but, the buck stops at INEC’s desk. It has the duty of engaging all critical stakeholders before elections and based on its judgement go ahead on a fair assessment of the political climate.

Professor Yakubu and his men should wake up to the reality of the moment; Nigerians may be patient and resilient, but they are not infinitely docile as some of those in authority think.

www.ijcrs.org Page | 107

International Journal of Creative Research and Studies Volume-2 Issue-10, October-2018

References 1. Saminu, Ibrahim (2016). INEC and monster of inconclusive elections. http://www.thepointng.com/inec-and- monster-of-inconclusive-elections/ 2. Baregu, M. (2009). Democratic is not enough: the legitimacy crisis and the resurgence of Military Coups in Africa. “Paper presented at EISA‟s Fourth Annual Symposium, Johannesburg, 17-18 November. 3. Aniedi, Ikoiwak (2016). Inconclusive elections are signs of progress. http://punchng.com/inconclusive- elections-are-signs-of-progress-ikoiwak-rivers-state-rec/ 4. Ahmed AM, Usman M (2015) The Impact of Technology on Nigeria’s Democratic Development: An Analysis of the Card Reading Machine. Int J Multidisciplinary Res Modern Edu 1: 2. 5. Jega AM (2012) Report on the 2011 General Elections. Independent National Electoral Commission. 6. Kroeker KL (2010) Engineering the web`s third decade. Association for Computing Machinery 53: 16-18. 7. Ejikemejombo N (2015) Information and Communication Technology and Administration of 2015 General Election in Nigeria. Mediterranean J Social Sci MCSER 8. Esan AO, Ayeni TB (2017) E-voting in Nigeria: Barriers to full implementation. . 9. The Carter Center National Democratic Institute for International Affairs (1999) Special report series- Observing the 1998-99 Nigeria Elections. 10. Agbu O (2016) Unbridled Election Rigging and the Use of Technology: The Smart Card Reader as the ‘Joker’ in Nigeria’s 2015 Presidential Election. Research and Studies Department, Nigerian Institute of International Affairs. 11. Nwafor C (2016) Technology Gaps, Communication & New Direction for Elections in Nigeria; Paper presented At the Situation Room’s Stakeholders’ Forum.

www.ijcrs.org Page | 108