WORKING PAPER Southeast Asia’S Regression from Democracy and Its Implications

WORKING PAPER Southeast Asia’s Regression From Democracy and Its Implications Joshua Kurlantzick May 2014 This publication has been made possible by the generous support of the Open Society Foundations and the Starr Foundation. 1 The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher dedicated to being a resource for its members, government officials, business executives, journalists, educators and students, civic and religious leaders, and other interested citizens in order to help them better understand the world and the foreign policy choices facing the United States and other countries. Founded in 1921, CFR carries out its mission by maintaining a diverse membership, with special programs to promote interest and develop expertise in the next generation of foreign policy leaders; convening meetings at its headquarters in New York and in Washington, DC, and other cities where senior government officials, members of Congress, global leaders, and prominent thinkers come together with CFR members to discuss and debate major international issues; supporting a Studies Program that fosters independent research, enabling CFR scholars to produce articles, reports, and books and hold roundtables that analyze foreign policy issues and make concrete policy recommendations; publishing Foreign Affairs, the preeminent journal on international affairs and U.S. foreign policy; sponsoring Independent Task Forces that produce reports with both findings and policy prescriptions on the most important foreign policy topics; and providing up-to-date information and analysis about world events and American foreign policy on its website, CFR.org. The Council on Foreign Relations takes no institutional positions on policy issues and has no affiliation with the U.S. government. All views expressed in its publications and on its website are the sole responsibilities of the author or authors. For further information about CFR or this paper, please write to the Council on Foreign Relations, 58 East 68th Street, New York, NY 10065, or call Communications at 212.434.9888. Visit CFR’s website, www.cfr.org. Copyright © 2014 by the Council on Foreign Relations® Inc. All rights reserved. This paper may not be reproduced in whole or in part, in any form beyond the reproduction permitted by Sections 107 and 108 of the U.S. Copyright Law Act (17 U.S.C. Sections 107 and 108) and excerpts by reviewers for the public press, without express written permission from the Council on Foreign Relations. 2 Introduction Between the late 1980s and the late 2000s, many countries in Southeast Asia were viewed, by global democracy analysts and Southeast Asians themselves, as leading examples of democratization in the developing world. By the late 2000s, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Singapore all were ranked as “free” or “partly free” by the monitoring organization Freedom House, while Cambodia and, perhaps most surprisingly, Myanmar had both taken sizable steps toward democracy as well. Yet since the late 2000s, Southeast Asia’s democratization has stalled and, in some of the region’s most economically and strategically important nations, gone into reverse. Over the past ten years, Thailand has undergone a rapid and severe regression from democracy and is now ruled by a junta. Malaysia’s democratic institutions and culture have regressed as well, with the long-ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition cracking down on dissent and trying to destroy what had been an emerging, and increasingly stable, two-party system. Singapore’s transition toward contested politics has stalled. In Cambodia and Myanmar, hopes for dramatic democratic change have fizzled. Only the Philippines and Indonesia have stayed on track, but even in these two countries democratic consolidation is threatened by the persistence of graft, public distrust of democratic institutions, and continued meddling in politics by militaries. Southeast Asia’s rollback from democracy reflects a worrying global retrenchment toward anti- democratic political change. The implications of this regression from democracy are significant. On a human level, the regression from democracy means that, compared to a decade ago, more of the world’s people are living today under authoritarian or hybrid, semi-authoritarian regimes. People living under authoritarian rule are more likely to have shorter and less healthy lives, as shown by indicators of human development. An increasingly authoritarian and unstable Southeast Asia is also a poor partner for the United States. Southeast Asia contains U.S. treaty allies Thailand and the Philippines, increasingly critical U.S. partners Singapore and Vietnam, and potentially valuable strategic partners like Indonesia, Malaysia, and Myanmar. Southeast Asia has become one of the largest engines of global growth, and the United States and several Southeast Asian nations are attempting to complete the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), which would be the largest free trade area in history in terms of gross domestic product (GDP). Regression from democracy will endanger all of this cooperation. History shows that the United States works most effectively around the world with other democracies, as demonstrated in organizations like the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The United States’ partnerships with the more democratic nations in Southeast Asia follow this trend—these relationships tend to be more stable than U.S. relationships with more brittle and autocratic Southeast Asian regimes. Stronger democratic governments, including those in Southeast Asia, also usually can deliver the kind of long- term economic liberalization critical to foreign investment, since these economic reforms are not just implemented by fiat. If this democratic rollback continues, it is likely to seriously endanger American 3 security cooperation in East Asia, undermine the region’s growth and economic interdependence, and cause serious political unrest, even insurgencies, in many Southeast Asian nations. 4 Southeast Asia’s Democratization and Reversal SOUTHEAST ASIA’S ROCKY HISTORY OF DEMOCRACY In August 1967, when the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), the main regional organization, was founded, the first members—Thailand, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Brunei—all were authoritarian states of some form. The international environment did not create pressure for democratization in the region; the Vietnam War was raging, and the priority of major powers such as the United States and the Soviet Union was securing Asian allies and fighting the Cold War, not pressing for democratization. The situation changed little throughout the 1970s and 1980s; brief experiments with democracy in Thailand and the Philippines succumbed to new versions of authoritarian rule. Fear of external threats from China and Vietnam brought the countries together into ASEAN, which was founded with a limited charter that did not include a mandate to promote democracy and human rights. Meanwhile, under development-oriented authoritarian regimes led by longtime rulers such as Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew, Malaysia’s Mahathir Mohamad, Indonesia’s Suharto, and the Thai military and bureaucratic elite, several Southeast Asian nations posted some of the highest growth rates in the world between the 1960s and 1990s, with Thailand growing faster than any other nation in the world between the mid-1980s and mid-1990s. These civilian authoritarians and military rulers, though maintaining tight control over the broadcast media, dissent, and politics, generally allowed economic technocrats, foreign advisers, and central banks to set economic policies, many of which proved to be highly effective. This growth helped reduce popular pressure for political liberalization, though Southeast Asian governments did not shy away from using repression, if necessary, to maintain political dominance. In 1973, for example, after pro-democracy activists launched street protests in Bangkok that ultimately attracted some five hundred thousand people, Thai army troops massed in the streets and opened fire on demonstrators, killing at least seventy-seven people, although the true figure was probably much higher. In the late 1980s and 1990s, several factors that had entrenched authoritarian rule in Southeast Asia began to change, paving the way for democracy. The end of the Cold War and the integration of Laos, Cambodia, and Vietnam into ASEAN made it harder for Southeast Asian autocrats like Suharto or the Thai military to justify repression in the name of forestalling communism. After the end of its civil war, Cambodia held relatively free national elections in 1993, though the candidate clearly defeated, Hun Sen, refused to cede power and used his military strength to force the victor, Prince Norodom Ranariddh, into a power-sharing agreement. The end of the Cold War also allowed ASEAN to assume a broader mandate. Though the organization still operated by consensus, in the late 1990s and early 2000s it developed a charter affirming its commitment to upholding human rights, and some member-states like the Philippines pushed ASEAN to become more involved in promoting political reform throughout the region. 5 ASEAN’s new charter, adopted by the whole organization in 2007, committed the organization to establishing a body to monitor human rights and a dispute-resolution mechanism that could potentially be used to help solve ASEAN members’ internal political conflicts.

Load more