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This is a PDF of the Word file described below - Future Developments in the Music Market from April 1995. The original Word 2.0 file is hard to read on modern (later than 2003?) versions of Word. For this PDF version, I have used the correct illustration for Fig 17.6. The Word file and a number of other items, such as a May 1996 update are in a file FDMM.ZIP which you can find at: http://www.firstpr.com.au/musicmar/mmed.html#fdmm If you are really interested in this field, please take a look at the zip file. Please also see: http://www.firstpr.com.au/musicmar/ for a later, shorter, paper Music Marketing in the Age of Electronic Delivery. This includes discussions of the limitations of the 1995 draft, such as: 1 - Not anticipating decent quality music could be achieved with such high rates of compression as 10:1, as is done with MP3. 2 - Thinking that ADSL deployment and global high speed data connections would be done primarily for Video On Demand, with Internet access being a secondary function. (Funny now that Internet access is now ubiquitous in the developed world, and that a lot of the bandwidth is spent on YouTube videos and now, ca. 2011 with actual Video on Demand services finally emerging!) I have Corel Draw and .eps versions of these diagrams, if anyone is interested. In 2011, I am not actively involved in this field, but have been talking with Liz Guiffre of Macquarie University, who is working on a PhD concerning, amongst other things, the challenges posed to the music industry by Internet communications etc. Her forthcoming thesis concerns broader patterns of challenges to existing methods of communication and how the various industries adapt. Denizens of later days - if you can’t find her work, please email me at [email protected] and I will forward your message to her. 1 Future Developments in the Music Market FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS IN THE MUSIC MARKET Discussing the Australian Music Industry 1995 to 2010 Draft for the Contemporary Music Summit in Canberra 27 April 1995 Robin Whittle 11 April 1995 Revised copyright notice 4 May 1995 This file is in the Microsoft Word for Windows 2.0 format. This means you should be able to import it into later Word versions for Mac and Windows. Let me know if you have any trouble. Virtually all the text is meant to be in the TrueType style "Arial". This is the BTCE standard. I am not sure what the best equivalent in the Mac, PostScript world is - any different font may slightly change the formatting and pagination of the document. This document is intended to be printed on A4 paper. This is fdmm.doc - the full final file including .eps , with the formatting set to ragged right - which I prefer. (The printed version is justified right.) If for some reason you reformat this for different sized paper and want to generate a new table of contents, turn on View Annotations and look at the annotations at the three TOCs. To print on US letter paper, it would probably be easier to change the scaling of your printer driver. Other versions may be: fdmm_ng.doc As above but without the .eps graphics pictures. fdmm.zip Compressed versions of the above. Use PKUNZIP on an IBM fdmm_ng.zip PC to de-compress them. (Or stuffit on the Mac). fdmm_eps.zip Compressed graphics files in .eps format - import them into various programs and print them on PostScript, and perhaps other, printers. fdmm_gif.zip Compressed graphics files in .gif format - import them into various programs and print them on virtually any kind of printer. The printed version contains a few pasted in diagrams, which I do not have electronic versions of. They are not crucial. Robin Whittle 4 May 1995 ii Copyright Commonwealth of Australia 1995 (Not Robin Whittle as in the printed version!) This work is copyright. This electronic version is being given to particular people to stimulate discussion and to generate feedback to the author. This is not intended for widespread distribution. Publication in whole or in part is (as far as I am aware) contrary to the requirements of the BTCE. If you do want to use some of this material, please check with me, or Jen St Clair at the BTCE. 100 copies of this paper were printed by the Bureau of Transport and Communication Economics for the Contemporary Music Summit, as a step towards producing a final BTCE Occasional Paper. 30 copies were printed subsequently for other interested people. This is an author's draft, _not_ a BTCE document. The BTCE's project officer for Future Developments in the Music Market is Jen St Clair - ph -- ---- ----. First Principles Research and Expression Robin Whittle (old address) Australia email [email protected] or [email protected] WWW http://www.ozemail.com.au/~firstpr Note 2011: My website is http://www.firstpr.com.au and email address is [email protected]. The BTCE no longer exists and they never actually published this work, apart from the 100 copies of this draft, as mentioned above. Theoretically it is still copyright by the Commonwealth, but I doubt anyone cares. I have made it available at my site since 1999 or so. iii Future Developments in the Music Market FOREWORD (Revised 4 May 1995) This paper examines the impact of technological change on different aspects of the music industry, primarily musical production, distribution and marketing. It is an author's draft which explains technology and speculates on future scenarios. This paper is the result of research which was initially intended to be part of the Communications Futures Project - a major research project by the Bureau of Transport and Communication Economics (BTCE). The first aim of printing and circulating this draft is to stimulate discussion, especially for the Contemporary Music Industry Summit in Canberra on 27 April. The second aim is to gain feedback from industry to contribute to a final version which the BTCE plans to publish as an Occasional Paper. BTCE Occasional Papers are widely available through the Australian Government Publishing Service. Please contact me with your feedback at the address shown on the previous page before the end of May. I would like to thank Chris Cheah and Jen St Clair, who initiated and supported this project at the BTCE, and the people who have given me information, critical feedback and support. While the economic importance of the Australian music industry is undoubted, and the technical and social aspects of the communications revolution are fascinating and momentous, it is the music which most motivates me to explore the prospects for this industry. While it is described in this paper as a product, music is really a gift - and I cannot express in writing how wonderful and diverse my music listening (and occasional music making) experiences have been. I am optimistic for the prospects of the Australian music industry and I hope this paper contributes to its vibrancy. Robin Whittle 11 April 1995 iv CONTENTS Comment [RW1]: Page: 4 Tricks for the TOC dept. To Foreword iii update each of the three TOCs Table of tables xi - contents, tables and figures - select View Field Codes, Table of figures xii highlight the field code and press F9. When View Field CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION 1 Codes is turned off, the TOC will appear. However : The BTCE Communications Futures Project 1 Assumed knowledge 2 1 - There is some kind of glitch in the Toc 7 and Toc 8 styles. Approach and structure of the paper 2 The styles seem to be OK, but Issues which are not addressed in this paper 4 when the TOCs for tables and Economic size and structure of the industry - the MIAC report 5 figures are created, an extra tab stop is inserted just past 2". Income flows - copyright and licences 13 This upsets the position of the Breakdown of revenue from a CD sale 14 page number on lines which Recorded music volume and revenues 18 are longer than one line. The solution is to get rid of this tab Other characteristics of the industry 19 stop either manually for all the Bottlenecks in distribution and promotion 19 lines, or by reseting the offending lines to their style. The role of commercial radio 22 Commercial radio's musical preferences 23 2 - For readability, I want to put New diffusion systems for a wider range of music 25 page breaks in the contents TOC. This makes it longer, Today's proliferation of music and musical styles 26 placing the tables and figures New methods of diffusion 27 TOCs at a higher page number Structural changes to the industry 27 than they were when the contents TOC is generated. This could be fixed by fixing the CHAPTER 2 HISTORICAL BACKGROUND 29 page number for the tables TOC, but for now I will just edit To the 1940s 29 the page numbers in the Tape and vinyl - from the 1950s 31 contents TOC for these two Digitisation - the 1980s 32 TOCs. CDs of the near future 33 CHAPTER 3 DIGITISATION, COMPRESSION AND QUALITY 35 CD quality 35 Compression of digital audio 36 Lossless compression 36 Lossy compression 38 CHAPTER 4 STORAGE TECHNOLOGIES 45 DAT 45 DCC 46 Mini Disc - a Magneto-Optical Disc 46 Magnetic hard-disks 48 CD-Rs - write once CDs 49 New CD data formats 51 The International Standard Recording Code 55 New CD physical formats 56 635 nm red light discs 57 Market prospects for red light discs 58 Hi-resolution red light music discs 59 Audio books and spoken word 60 Red light discs - conclusion 61 425 nm blue light discs 63 Market prospects for blue light discs 64 CD and CD-R data capacities and availability 65 v Future Developments in the Music Market Magneto-Optical vs.