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Bangladesh Sociological Society Bangladesh e-Journal of Sociology Volume 8, Number 2. July 2011 Note from the Editor 3 Estimation of Population and Food Grain Production Dayal Talukder and 4 In Bangladesh by 2020: A Simple Moving Average Love Chile Approach to a Time Series Analysis Women Empowerment or Autonomy: A Comparative Md. Morshedul Haque, 17 View in Bangladesh Context Towfiqua Mahfuza Islam Md. Ismail Tareque and Md. Golam Mostofa Socio-economic Characteristics and English M. Obaidul Hamid 31 Language Achievement in Rural Bangladesh Parental Socio-Economic Status as Correlate of O.S. Elgbeleye and 51 Child Labour in Ile-Ife, Nigeria M.O. Olasupo Managing Bullying Problems in Nigerian Secondary Oyaziwo Aluede 60 Schools: Some Interventions for Implementation Implications of the Ranking of Community Participation Steve Metiboba and 69 Strategies in Health Development by Selected Rural Olufemi Adewole Communities in O-Kun Yoruba, Kogi State, Nigeria Issues, Problems and Policies in Agricultural Credit: Olatomide W. Olowa and 87 A Review of Agricultural Credit in Nigeria Omowumi A. Olowa Conceptualising Northeast India: A Discursive Thongkholal Haokip 109 Analysis on Diversity ISSN 1819-8465 The Official Journal of Bangladesh Sociological Society Committed to the advancement of sociological research and publication. Bangladesh e-Journal of Sociology Volume 8, Number 2. July 2011 2 Bangladesh e-Journal of Sociology (Biannual e-Journal of the Bangladesh Sociological Society) Editor Nazrul Islam Independent University, Bangladesh Associate Editor Managing Editor Book Review Editor S. Aminul Islam M. Imdadul Haque A.I.Mahbub Uddin Ahmed University of Dhaka University of Dhaka University of Dhaka Web Master Faridul Islam, University of Dhaka Emails: [email protected] [email protected] Published on the Internet URL: http://www.bangladeshsociology.org Published by Bangladesh Sociological Society From School of Liberal Arts and Social Sciences Independent University, Bangladesh (IUB) Phone: 88-02-840-1645, Ext. 247. Email: [email protected] Bangladesh e-Journal of Sociology Volume 8, Number 2. July 2011 3 Note from the Editor Major objectives of the journal, when launched, were to facilitate the growth of sociology in Bangladesh and to encourage publications by the Bangladeshi sociologists. So far, both these objectives have failed to meet our expectations. Contributions from the Bangladeshi sociologists have been few and far in between. During the initial years of the Journal, Bangladeshi sociologists, mainly from the University of Dhaka, contributed research articles for publications. But the numbers soon declined. The Journal flourished largely because of the articles sent by international scholars, primarily from Nigeria, to the extent that it almost read like the Nigerian journal of sociology, instead of being the Bangladeshi journal. The reasons for this lack of contribution from Bangladesh are disconcerting, forcing on us a pessimistic view of the future of sociology in the country. In general, scholarship in Bangladesh is on the decline. It is particularly true of sociology in an alarming way. Because of a switch to Bengali as the medium of instruction after the independence of the country, there has been a serious drain on the knowledge of English in the population while among the university students, especially the sociology students, it has acted as a barrier to any serious scholarship, since most books still available in any subject are in English. This, after their graduation, translates into near complete lack of research and publication, irrespective of whether they become teachers or choose other professions. So that, other than the few still working seniors, no new sociologists are publishing. Also, the universities in Bangladesh are almost completely teaching universities with very little or no scope for research, particularly true for the social sciences. With no support from the institutions, the researcher is forced either to convert the few “consultancy” projects s/he may be engaged in into academic research or to spend personal funds to do research. Under such conditions research and publication dwindle and become occasional and personal enterprises. These general problems are compounded by the fact that there is little or no real or even perceived benefits accruing from research and publication since promotion or career advancement at the university has become almost totally dependent on the membership of the “faculty group” associated with the party occupying state power. Thus, “belonging” to the right group can ensure anything up to the Vice Chancellor’s job and beyond into the highest level of state bureaucracy. Hence, one is perceived to be better placed in one’s career by active involvement, often full time, in “party politics” instead of than “wasting” time in research and publication. In this, rather, anti-academic atmosphere growth of any discipline is thwarted. Sociologists in all public universities in Bangladesh, unfortunately, have, more often than not, been at the forefront of such anti-academic pursuits bringing down the discipline to its current demise. It is very heartening, therefore, that the current issue is able to report three research papers on Bangladesh and by Bangladeshi scholars (one in joint collaboration). They are all young scholars and are extremely talented as is demonstrated by their papers. One of them actually takes up the English learning situation itself. We hope, very earnestly, that such contributions from Bangladeshi scholars will continue and the Journal will eventually be able to build up a “Sociology of Bangladesh”, its avowed objective. The Nigerian contributions remain strong as ever and cover a wide range of topics, some moving into areas like, ‘bullying in schools’ and ‘agricultural credits’, not covered by the Journal earlier. ‘Child labour’ and ‘community health situation’ are also covered in this issue. “Northeast India” is again analysed, this time in terms of the very validity of the concept. We hope the readers will find this enlarged issue as rich as the previous ones. Bangladesh e-Journal of Sociology Volume 8, Number 2. July 2011 4 Estimation of Population and Food Grain Production in Bangladesh by 2020: A Simple Moving Average Approach to a Time Series Analysis Dayal Talukder* and Love Chile† Abstract The study used a time series dataset for a period of 23 years to estimate and analyse the size of population, food grain production and requirements for next ten years in Bangladesh with a view to providing policy makers and government with information for policy formulation and analysis. Using a simple moving average (SMA) method, a five-year average technique is applied for smoothing observed data series to generate a linear trend for the estimation of projected values of population, food grain requirements, net food grain production and food grain balance. The results indicate that the growth of population over next ten years will be very similar to the observed period. Increase in domestic food grain production shows a higher trend than food grain requirements leading to a food grain surplus over the same period. However, the size of population is growing too large to accommodate in a small country with a very low per capita income. The growing population will put enormous pressure on available resources thereby making future development unsustainable. The study suggests that the government should formulate policies to significantly reduce population growth. Introduction Appropriate policy formulation, planning and programme implementation are keys to socio- economic development of a country. Accurate projection of data plays an important role in providing policy makers with information and analysis that are required for policy formulation, planning, programme design and implementation for maintaining a sustainable socio-economic development in future. Projections of population and food grain production are intended to be useful for farmers, governments, agribusiness industries and policy makers. This sort of projection is crucial for developing countries like Bangladesh with a large size of population, small size of land area, low per capita income, high level of poverty, persistent food shortage, prolonged dependency on foreign aid, and low productivity in food grain sector. Since its independence in 1971, Bangladesh has been considering high population growth as a number one problem for the economy. Although it strived to reduce population growth; the size of population became almost double over last three decade from 72 million in 1972 to 140 million in 2005 with an average increase by over 2 million per year (MoA 2007: Table 101). This enormous size of population living in a land of 145567 sq kilometre (with a density of over 1000 people per sq km) has posed a serious challenge for future development of the economy in following ways: putting huge pressure on environment and available resources; limiting agricultural growth and * Institute of Public Policy, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand, corresponding author, email: [email protected] or [email protected] † Institute of Public Policy, Auckland University of Technology, Auckland, New Zealand, email: [email protected] Bangladesh e-Journal of Sociology Volume 8, Number 2. July 2011 5 food grain production through reducing arable land for housing and non-agricultural purposes; raising requirement for food grain; and raising the number of poor population thus slowing down
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