20130909 반도체 1 레이아웃 1 Wmxetfrvtxosrw0v2fjy

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20130909 반도체 1 레이아웃 1 Wmxetfrvtxosrw0v2fjy In-Depth (Overweight) Sep. 2013 SSD =∫-(3D NAND) 9 Analyst Issue ☎ 2184-2392 [email protected] R.A. ☎ 2184-2334 Pitch [email protected] Coverage opinion Top-picks Rationale CAGR +19%, 2X Density 2X Write Speed 1/2 Power Consumption 10X Endurance C.o.n.t.e.n.t.s 03 I. Summary 04 II. Key Chart & Table 06 Ⅲ. SSD, NAND 수요 다음 장 동력 06 Ⅲ-1. NAND 수요의 차세대 killer application은 SSD 08 Ⅲ-2. SSD 시장 성장 속도를 좌우하는 것은 가격 11 Ⅳ. 3D NAND 중화 시 SSD 수요 큰 폭 장 11 Ⅳ-1. 3D NAND 대중화 시 SSD 수요의 큰 폭 성장 가능할 것으로 전망 14 Ⅳ-2. 3D NAND란 무엇인가? 22 Ⅳ-3. 3D NAND가 시장에 영향을 미치는 시기는 2015년 이후 24 Ⅴ. 컨트롤러, SSD 경쟁력을 좌우하는 또 다른 축 27 Ⅵ. SSD 시장 경쟁 구도 29 Ⅶ. 목 투자견 30 삼성전자 (005930) 32 SK하이닉스 (000660) In-Depth ◀▶ 반도 I. Summary 3D NAND는 SSD 수요 장 인 3D NAND 현으 SSD 장 화될 망다. SSD 조원가의 약 80%를 지하는 SSD 시장 현재 시장 추정치 NAND 칩 원 크 절감되 한 , 대용량화도 능할 것기 때문다. 트 SSD 2~3배까지 장할 것으로 망 시장은 2013년 110억달러서 2017년 222억달러 (CAGR +19%, 2013년~2017년) 장할 것으 망하고 있다. 3D NAND 품 현 반되 은 수 3D NAND 현과 함 SSD 장 상기 수 2~3배 수으 장할 것으 망하고 있다. V-NAND는 Planar NAND 대비 8 6 V-NAND ( 3D NAND) 장 하 3D ① 능 개선되었고 NAND 기술 고 있다. 3D NAND Planar NAND서 수으 나되어 있 트 ② 단위당 도 절감 스를 수으 적한 것다. 3D NAND 한 적 위 Planar NAND 대비 은 수 ③ 대용량화도 능 적할 수 있기 때문 원 서 우위를 다. 한 3D NAND 선 현재 적용하고 있 것보다 만 요 어 현상 및 대용량화 한 등 Planar NAND 적인 문 및 장비 서 유 수 있다 장점도 다. , 도시바/샌디크 3D NAND 기술 경쟁력 으 향후 SSD 장 장 수혜를 수 있 체를 3D NAND 기술경쟁력 우위 확보 가려낼 수 있다. 3D NAND 경쟁력 우수한 체 와 도바/샌디스크인 것으 판단된다. 2014년 상반기에 안 공장에서 V-NAND 생산을 획하고 있다. 성 2015년 후 본격적으로 V-NAND 후 도바 P-BiCS 기를 기존 2015년 하반기서 2014년 양산 될 것으로 망 으 앞당긴 것으 추정된다. 마크론과 SK하닉스 2016년 대량 능할 망다. 컨트롤러도 SSD 능을 좌우 컨트롤러 SSD 경쟁력 판단하 다른 중요 요인다. SSD 능 좌우하기 때문다. 3D 3D NAND 되어도 NAND 변경된다 하도 SSD 컨트롤러 변화 크 것으 보인다. 컨트롤러 경쟁 컨트롤러 변화 크지는 않음 력 뛰어 체 , 인텔, LSI (Sandforce)다. PC SSD 및 Enterprise SSD용 컨트롤러를 모두 체 보유하고 있다. 특히 트리플코어 를 적용해 장서 능 , 인텔, LSI 뛰어나다 를 고 있다. 인텔은 Enterprise SSD용 컨트롤러만, 도바 인텔과 반대 컨트롤러에서 경쟁력 강함 PC SSD용 컨트롤러만 보유하고 있다. SK하닉스 2012년 LAMD를 인수해 컨트롤러 경쟁력 화하고 있다. 마크론은 체 컨트롤러를 보유하고 있 다. SSD 시장경쟁력은 현재 SSD 장서 , 인텔 경쟁 우위 두드러진다. PC SSD 및 Enterprise SSD , 인텔 우위 두드러짐 시장서 각각 두각 나타내고 있 도바와 Fusion-io 2중 도를 루고 있고, 마크론, 샌디스크 그 뒤를 잇고 있다. 그 외 다수 군소 체 립해 있다. 와 인텔은 NAND 칩 달 내재화되어 있고 컨트롤러 경쟁력 한 체 공통점 고 있다. 결론1. 수혜 <론> 1. 3D NAND 현, 그리고 른 SSD 장 장 수혜 예상 된다. V-NAND 기술력 및 경쟁력 NAND 칩 체 중 장 앞서있고, 컨트 롤러 기술 한 뛰어나다. 특히 V-NAND를 기반으 한 SSD 으 Enterprise SSD 장 경쟁력 화할 략 수립해 놓고 있어 향후 Enterprise SSD 장 내 경쟁력 화 예상된다. SK하닉스도 SSD 컨트롤러 사 인수 등 통해 SSD 경쟁력 화 중인 것으 보인다. 결론2. 증착 및 식각 장비 업체 수혜 2. 3D NAND서 1) 장비 중요 축소되 한 , 2) 증착 및 식각 공정 도 및 스텝수 크 증한다. 국내 반도체 장비체 중 테스 (095610), 원익 IPS (030530), 국제 엘렉트릭 (053740)등 3D NAND 설비투 확대 른 수혜 능할 망다. 3 Page In-Depth ◀▶ 반도 II. Key Chart & Table Fig. 01 SSD는 NAND 수요 차세대 killer application Fig. 02 SSD 능은 HDD 대비 뛰어나 CAGR 43% YV 53313 +JE#Ht1/#eq, ('13~'17) 66' +'' 호출시간 314#pv 818;13#pv 49313 VVG SPS#+PS6# 㒖㘒, SSD VVG⠂#Ḫ㎯#∷ᑮಪ#㞒◖#Ἂᨮ Preloh#Skrqh XVE 55% ⸆∶ I/O 성능 ⸆Ꭺ 9333#LR2v VVG⠂#∷ᑮಪ#KGGᶞᎎ#48᳚#Ἂᨮ 733#LR2v 45313 Wdeohw#SF Rwkhu Mobile Idloxuh#udwh 안정성 Idloxuh#udwh Fdugv phone 41% 318( VVGಪ#743᳚#ሼ⟶ 58( ;313 58#zdwwv전력소모 948#zdwwv Tablet PC 7313 48% 4(CPU 사용 :( 3 53#pvI/O 시간 733833#pv 백업시간 5338 533: 533< 5344 9#krxuv 5357#krxuv 5346H 5348H 534:H VVGಪ#68᳚#Ἂᨮ Source: Gartner, KTB Source: , KTB Fig. 03 SSD 격은 HDD 격 대비 높은 것 단점 Fig. 04 3D NAND Net die수는 Planar NAND 대비 많아 <13 +'2JE, ;3 VVG KGG +᳚, 713 +᳚, ;13 VVG2KGG +❚⸿, :13 8715 93 613 913 813 513 6314 73 713 5;17 613 4:15 413 4716 4417 53 513 <1; :19 914 71; 413 313 Sodqdu#QDQG 6G#QDQG# 6G#QDQG 313 3 533; 533< 5343 5344 5345 5346 5347 5348 5349 534: +54qp#POF,# +6[qp#POF, +6[qp#WOF, Source: Industry Data, KTB Source: Industry data, KTB Fig. 05 V-NAND 특은 Planar NAND 대비 뛰어나 Fig. 06 SSD 비교 (Planar NAND vs. V- NAND) 20nm Planar NAND 3Xnm V-NAND Less 2X Density #Exloglqj#57#od|huv#surylghv#wzlfh#wkh#ghqvlw| Real Estate Sodqdu#QDQG#VVG Y0QDQG#VVG Rqh#wlph#surjudpplqj#shhu#Zrug#Olqh +;Fk/#;glhv2fk, +;Fk/#7glhv2fk, 2X Write Speed Gxh#wr#qr#lqwhuihuhqfh#ehwzhhq#Z2Ov 3HUIRUPDQFH 3RZHU 22% 20% 27% 45% Faster Faster Lower Lower 1/2 Power Consumption Ehfdxvh#ri#425#uhdg2zulwh#fxuuhqw Higher Performance Low Power #Xqltxh#fkdujh#wuds#od|hu#vxssruwv Consumption Planar NAND based SSD V-NAND based SSD Planar NAND based SSD V-NAND based SSD 10X Endurance Normalized(a.u) Vhtxhqwldo Udqgrp Dyhudjh Shdn 43[#f|fohv#ri#surjudp#dqg#hudvh Zulwh+PE2v, Zulwh+LRSV, Srzhu+pZ, Srzhu+pZ, Source: , KTB Source: , KTB 4 Page In-Depth ◀▶ 반도 3D NAND는 평면 구조 셀을 수직으로 쌓아 올린 구조적 Planar NAND에서 3D NAND로 환에 따라 증착 및 Fig. 07 특을 지니고 있음 Fig. 08 식각 공정 난도 및 텝수 크게 증 PLANAR 3D NAND CD Definition and Scaling (<15nm) CD Definition and Scaling (~50nm) Olwkrjudsk| 1 Hwfk#dqg#Ghsrvlwlrq#Jurzv ETCH ETCH (+30 to +40%) Orzhu#dvshfw#udwlrv 2 Kljk#dvshfw#udwlrv DEPOSITION DEPOSITION (+50 to +60%) Vlqjoh#od|hu 3 Pxowl0od|hu#vwdfnv Source: , KTB Source: AMAT, KTB Fig. 09 NAND 업체별 3D NAND 양산 로드맵 Fig. 10 SSD 컨트롤러 업체별 경쟁력 3ODQDU1$1' '1$1' 9HQGRU QPQP<QP=QP 6DPVXQJ VWDFNVVWDFNVVWDFNVVWDFNV QP<QP=QP 7RVKLED VWDFNVVWDFNVVWDFNV QP;QP<QP=QP 0LFURQ VWDFNVVWDFNV OVL Lqwho QP;QP<QP=QP RF] Rwkhu 6.+\QL[ " Pduyhoo Wrvkled Mplfurq VdqGlvn VN#K|ql{ VWDFNVVWDFNV Vdpvxqj Source: Intuitive Cognition Consulting, KTB Source: IT brand, KTB Fig. 11 SSD 제조 업체별 supply chain Fig. 12 업체별 PC SSD vs. Enterprise SSD M/S (2012년) Company Controller NAND Interface Vdpvxqj Fdswlyh Fdswlyh VDWD/#SFLh Wrvkled Fdswlyh/#OVL/#PUYO Fdswlyh VDWD/#SFLh 53( Intel Lqwho OVL/#PUYO Fdswlyh VDWD Plf urq PUYO Fdswlyh VDWD VdqGlvn Fdswlyh/#OVL/#PUYO Fdswlyh VDWD/#SFLh Fusion-IO PC SSD RF]#Whfkqrorj|#Jurxs Fdswlyh/#OVL WVE/#PX VDWD 48(( Olwh0Rq PUYO WVE VDWD Nlqjvwrq#Gljlwdo OVL/#Mplfurq WVE/#PX VDWD Fruvdlu OVL/#ODPG PX VDWD 43( Samsung Dsdfhu OVL/#Mplfurq/#Sklvrq WVE/#PX VDWD/#SDWD/#LGH VNK|ql{ OVL/#Fdslwyh Fdswlyh VDWD Google 8(( Lqwho Fdswlyh/#OVL/#PUYO Fdswlyh VDWD WD/Intel Hqwhusulvh#VVG#Pdunhw#Vkduh Ixvlrq0lr [lolq{ PX/#WVE/#Vdpvxqj SFLh STEC Vdpvxqj Fdswlyh Fdswlyh VDWD/#VDV/#dqg#qrz#SFLh SanDisk Jrrjoh [lolq{ WVE SFLh/#VDWD Smart Zhvwhuq#Gljlwdo#+Zlwk#Lqwho, Fdswlyh Lqwho VDV/#IF Enterprise SSD OZC QhwDss [lolq{ Vdpvxqj SFLh Lite-On MicronM Toshiba VWHF Fdswlyh VWE VDWD/#VDV/#IF/#SFLh VdqGlvn Fdswlyh Fdswlyh VDWD/#VDV/#SFLh 8( 43( 48(48( 53( 58( 63( 68( Vpduw#Vwrudjh Fdswlyh WVE VDWD/#VDV RF]#Whfkqrorj|#Jurxs Lqglolq{/#OVL/#PUYO WVE/#PX VDWD/#VDV/#SFLh SF#VVG#Pdunhw#Vkduh Source: Gartner, KTB Source: Gartner, KTB 5 Page In-Depth ◀▶ 반도 Ⅲ. SSD, NAND 수요 다음 장 동력 Ⅲ-1. NAND 수요 차세대 killer application은 SSD SSD는 NAND 수요 장 견인할 세대 killer application은 SSD 것으 망한다. 장사 기관인 NAND 수요 차세대 장 동력 트 SSD향 NAND 수요 CAGR (2013년~2017년)은 +54% 같은 기안 WW SSD향 NAND 수요 장률은CAGR NAND 수요 장률인 +43%를 크게 상회할 것으 망하고 있다. 체 NAND +55% ‘13년~( ’17년) 수요서 SSD향 NAND 지하는 수요 비중은 2013년 29%서 2017년 41%까지 증가할 것으 추정된다. NAND Killer application NAND 수요 디털카메라 및 MP3 수요 확과 함 2005년부 본격적으 개화되기 :DSC, MP3 → 휴대폰 → SSD 작했다. 2008년에 탑재량 높은 스마트폰 현과 함 휴대폰이 NAND 수요 killer application으 등극했다. 그러나 스마트폰 장 숙과 함 휴대폰향 NAND 수요 장은 2012년부 둔화되기 작했다. 러한 NAND 수요 장 공백을 SSD 메워줄 망다. 2013년부 SSD GB당 원 소비 심리적 저항선으 인식되어 온 1달러 하 하락해 SSD 수요 장 도 빨라질 것으 예상된다. Fig. 13 Application별 NAND 수요 망 Fig. 14 Application별 NAND 수요 비중 망 CAGR 43% 93( Fdugv SPS#+PS6# 㒖㘒, 53313 +JE#Ht1/#eq, ('13~'17) Preloh#Skrqh Wdeohw#SF 83( VVG XVE Rwkhu 49313 VVG SPS#+PS6# 㒖㘒, SSD 73( Preloh#Skrqh XVE 55% 45313 Wdeohw#SF Rwkhu Mobile 63( Fdugv phone 41% ;313 53( Tablet PC 7313 48% 43( 3( 3 5338 533: 533< 5344 5338 5339 533: 533; 533< 5343 5344 5345 5346H 5348H 534:H 5346H 5347H 5348H 5349H 534:H Source: Gartner, KTB Source: Gartner, SK, KTB Fig. 15 NAND 연간 bit growth 망 Fig. 16 SSD $/GB 추 및 망 583( QDQG#e2j 7313 +XVG, 671: 533( 6313 483( 5313 433( :1; 4313 83( 61< 615 515 415 31< 31: 318 317 316 3( 313 5339 533; 5343 5345 533: 533; 533< 5343 5344 5345 5347H 5349H 5346H 5347H 5348H 5349H 534:H Source: Gartner, KTB Source: Gartner, KTB 6 Page In-Depth ◀▶ 반도 SSD 시장 장률 2013년 SSD 장 규모 110.4억달러 (+55% YoY) 추정된다.
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