at the Crossroads SUSTAINING GROWTH AND REDUCING POVERTY ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution This page intentionallyleft blank ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution at the Crossroads SUSTAINING GROWTH AND REDUCING POVERTY EDITED BY Tim Callen Patricia Reynolds Christopher Towe INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution 2001 International M netary Fund © o Production: IMF Graphics Section Cover design: Lai Oy Louie Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data India at the crossroads p. em. ISBN 1-55775-992-8 (alk. paper) 1. India--Economic policy--1980. 2. India--Economic conditions--1947- 3. Fiscal policy--India. 4. Sustainable development--India. HC435.2 .1484 2001 330.954--dc21 00-054132 Price: $2 7.00 Address orders ro: External Relations Department, Publication Services International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C. 20431 Telephone: (202) 623-7430; Te lefax: (202) 623-7201 E-mail:
[email protected] Internet: http:l/www.imf.org ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Contents Page Foreword . vii Acknowledgments . ix Overview 1. Christopher Towe 1 PART I. Preserving External Stability India and the Asia Crisis 2. Christopher To we . 11 3. Assessing India's External Position Tim Callen and Paul Cashin . 28 PART II. Fiscal Challenges 4. Tax Smoothing, Financial Repression, and Fiscal Deficits in India Paul Cashin, Nilss Olekalns, and Rama Sahay . 53 5. Fiscal Adjustment and Growth Prospects in India Patricia Reynolds . 75 PART III. Monetary and Financial Sector Policies Modeling and Forecasting Inflation in India 6. Callen . 105 Tim The Unit Trust of India and the Indian Mutual Fund 7. Industry Anna Ilyina . 122 ©International Monetary Fund.