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7 Jul 2021 CMB International Securities | Equity Research | Company Initiation Yidu Tech (2158 HK) BUY (Initiation) China largest healthcare big data specialist Target Price HK$43.41 Up/Downside +16.2% Current Price HK$37.35 INITIATE AT BUY. Yidu Tech is the largest healthcare big data specialist in China with 5% market share. It analyzed 1.7bn healthcare records from 400mn patients and developed a suite of big data analytics solutions for the healthcare industry. China Software & IT Services We expect Yidu Tech revenue to grow at 47% CAGR in FY21-24E, reaching RMB2.8bn as China increasing big data solution adoption in healthcare industry Marley Ngan (market growing at 40% CAGR). (852) 3916 3719 [email protected] Largest healthcare big data solution provider in China. Yidu Tech, Stock Data founded in 2014 and listed on HKEx in Jan 2021, ranked no.1 in terms of Mkt Cap (HK$ mn) 34,557 revenue in China with 5% market share in 2019, according to EY. Yidu Tech Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn) 63.85 built proprietary data intelligence infrastructure, YiduCore, through analyzing 52w High/Low (HK$) 69.80/ 32.30 Total Issued Shares (mn) 925 1.7bn healthcare records from over 400mn patients upon authorization. Based Source: Bloomberg on this “medical brain”, Yidu Tech developed a suite of big data analytics- driven solutions for the healthcare industry. Shareholding Structure Ms. Gong Yingying 44.99% China healthcare big data solutions market growing at 40% CAGR. China Sunshine Insurance 10.38% is still in an early stage to adopt big data solutions in healthcare industry (7.2% GIC 6.49% penetration in 2019). China healthcare big data solutions market is expected Source: HKEx to grow from RMB10.5bn in 2019 to RMB57.7bn in 2024 (40.5% CAGR) and Share Performance life science solutions should deliver the stronger growth at 52.8% CAGR. The Absolute Relative entry barrier is high with hurdles including hospital coverage, follow-up data 1-mth -4.0% -1.3% accumulation and advanced technology capabilities. 3-mth 2.0% 4.9% 6-mth NA NA Yidu Tech to deliver 46% revenue CAGR in FY21-24E. Yidu Tech has 3 Source: Bloomberg business segments namely 1) big data platform for hospitals and regulators 12-mth Price Performance (46% of FY21 revenue), 2) life science solutions for pharmaceutical, biotech (HK$) and medical device companies (21%) and 3) health management platform 70.0 2158 HK HSI (rebased) 60.0 (for patients and insurance companies (29%). We expect Yidu Tech revenue 50.0 to grow from RMB867mn in FY21 to RMB2,772mn in FY24E (47% CAGR), 40.0 30.0 mainly driven by increasing no. of active customers, especially in life science 20.0 sector (80% FY21-24E revenue CAGR) where big data solutions create 10.0 0.0 highest value that shorten drug/ medical device development cycle. Jan-21 Apr-21 Source: Bloomberg Initiate at BUY. We initiate at BUY with target price of HK$43.41. Our SOTP valuation implied 20x FY23E P/S, in-line with life-science solution peers Auditor: PwC average. Downside risks include tightening regulations in data privacy, lower than expected adoption and intensifying competition. Earnings Summary (YE 31 Mar) FY20A FY21A FY22E FY23E FY24E Revenue (RMB mn) 558 867 1,303 1,938 2,772 YoY growth (%) 447% 55% 50% 49% 43% Operating profit (RMB mn) (590) (443) (598) (798) (1,016) YoY growth (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Net income (RMB) (1,510) (3,700) (589) (790) (1,010) Please cast your valuable vote EPS (RMB) (2.15) (4.00) (0.64) (0.85) (1.09) for CMBIS research team in the YoY growth (%) 58% 86% -84% 34% 28% 2021 Asiamoney Brokers Poll: P/S 59.6 38.4 25.6 17.2 12.0 ROE (%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. https://euromoney.com/brokers Net gearing (%) -101% net cash net cash net cash net cash Source: Company data, Bloomberg, CMBIS estimates PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 1 MORE REPORTS FROM BLOOMBERG: RESP CMBR <GO> OR http://www.cmbi.com.hk 7 Jul 2021 Contents Investment Thesis .................................................................................... 3 China healthcare big data solutions demand to grow at 40% CAGR................... 3 Proprietary data-intelligent infrastructure – YiduCore .......................................... 3 Stable growth in big data platform and solutions .................................................. 3 Life sciences solutions create high value-add to customers ............................... 3 New revenue stream from health management platform ...................................... 3 Initiate at BUY ............................................................................................................ 3 Focus Charts ............................................................................................ 4 Company Overview .................................................................................. 5 Industry landscape .................................................................................. 6 China’s healthcare industry accelerating digitalization investment .................... 6 China healthcare big data solutions demand to grow at 40% CAGR................... 7 Competitive landscape ............................................................................................. 8 Core data-intelligence infrastructure – YiduCore ............................... 10 Proprietary data-intelligence infrastructure .........................................................10 Data arrangements and security ............................................................................10 Big data platform and solutions ........................................................... 11 Stable growth in big data platform and solutions ................................................11 Solutions for hospitals ............................................................................................12 Solutions for regulators ..........................................................................................13 Part of big data solution pricing is recurring .......................................................14 Life sciences solutions.......................................................................... 15 Strong value add to customers, reflected in higher retention rate ....................15 Analytics-driven clinical development ..................................................................16 Real-world Evidence (RWE)-based research ........................................................17 Evidence-based digital commercialization ...........................................................18 Health management platform and solutions ....................................... 19 Emerging revenue stream ......................................................................................19 Insurance technology and disease management solutions ...............................20 Financial analysis .................................................................................. 22 Revenue to grow at 47% CAGR in FY21-24E ........................................................22 Gross margin to decrease on mix change ............................................................23 Opex ratio declining ................................................................................................24 Working capital improving but free cash flow to remain negative.....................25 Valuation ................................................................................................. 27 Initiate at BUY with target price of HK$43.41 ........................................................27 Company profile ..................................................................................... 29 Management background .......................................................................................29 Shareholding structure ...........................................................................................30 Investment risks ......................................................................................................30 Financial Summary ................................................................................ 31 PLEASE READ THE ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES ON LAST PAGE 2 7 Jul 2021 Investment Thesis China healthcare big data solutions demand to grow at 40% CAGR China healthcare big data solutions market size is expected to grow from RMB10.5bn in 2019 to RMB57.7bn in 2024 (40.5% CAGR) with penetration rate rise from 7.2% to 16.2%, according to EY estimates. We identified 3 types of providers that Yidu Tech is competing against: traditional IT companies, traditional CROs and healthcare big data solution specialists. We think LinkDoc is the closest peers and Yidu Tech prevails in hospital coverage (500 for Yidu Tech vs. 330 for LinkDoc) and the number of healthcare records collected (400mn for Yidu Tech vs. 2.5mn for LinkDoc). Also, LinkDoc is relatively niche and specializes in oncology while Yidu Tech disease registries cover over 50 disease areas. Proprietary data-intelligent infrastructure – YiduCore YiduCore is the proprietary data intelligence infrastructure built by Yidu Cloud. It is built through processing and analyzing 1.7bn healthcare records from 400mn patients upon authorization. Based on this “medical brain” YiduCloud developed a suite of data-analytics healthcare solutions for the healthcare industry. Stable growth in big data platform and solutions YiduCloud launched big data platform and solutions in 2015. The platform aggregates raw data and process them into structured and standardized