Doctoral Education in South Africa Policy, Discourse and Data Nico Cloete, Johann Mouton and Charles Sheppard AFRICAN MINDS First published in 2015 by African Minds African Minds 4 Eccleston Place, Somerset West, 7130, Cape Town, South Africa [email protected] www.africanminds.org.za cc 2015 Nico Cloete, Johann Mouton and Charles Sheppard All contents of this document, unless specified otherwise, are licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ISBNs 978-1-928331-00-1 Print 978-1-928331-07-0 e-Book Produced by COMPRESS.dsl | www.compressdsl.com Contents List of figures and tables iv Preface vii About the authors xi List of frequently used acronyms xii Chapter 1 The demand for a doctorate: Global, African and South African contexts 1 Chapter 2 The demand to increase doctorates 27 Chapter 3 The demand for improved efficiency 59 Chapter 4 The demand for transformation 81 Chapter 5 Improve the quality of doctoral education 101 Chapter 6 Multiple paths to success 125 Chapter 7 Incremental change and a paradigm shift 173 Chapter 8 Policy choices and implications 195 Appendices Appendix 1 Data sources and methodology 215 Appendix 2 Responses to the presentation of preliminary findings from the Study on the Doctorate in South Africa (May 2014) 225 Appendix 3 Current trends in PhD studies: A review of articles published on the University World News website (2013) 246 Appendix 4 Government steering of doctoral production 261 Appendix 5 Additional data on the doctorate in South Africa 265 Appendix 6 Scenarios that will produce doctoral graduates by 2030 270 References 272 List of figures and tables Chapter 1 Figure 1.1 The rise of the doctorate: Percentage growth in doctoral output (1998–2006) 4 Figure 1.2 Doctoral enrolments at eight sub-Saharan African universities (2001, 2007, 2011) 11 Figure 1.3 Doctoral graduates at eight sub-Saharan African universities (2001, 2007, 2011) 12 Figure 1.4 Masters graduates at eight sub-Saharan African universities (2001, 2007, 2011) 12 Figure 1.5 Discourses on doctorate production in South Africa 24 Chapter 2 Figure 2.1 Growth in PhD graduates in South Africa (1920–2012) 28 Figure 2.2 Average annual growth rate of PhD graduates (1920–2012) 29 Figure 2.3 Masters and doctoral headcount enrolments (1996–2012) 39 Figure 2.4 Student enrolments (1996 and 2012) 41 Figure 2.5 Average shares of the doctoral enrolments in the various fields of study (1996–2012) 42 Figure 2.6 The distribution of doctoral enrolments by institution type (1996–2012) 43 Figure 2.7 Distribution of doctoral enrolments across major fields of study and institution categories (1996 compared to 2012) 45 Figure 2.8 Average shares of the doctoral graduates in the various fields of study (1996–2012) 49 Figure 2.9 Percentage distribution of doctoral graduates per institution type and field of study with SET subdivided further (2012) 52 Table 2.1 PhD enrolments per institutional type (1996–2012) 44 Table 2.2 ‘Top 5’ factors influencing students’ choice of their current degree programmes 46 Table 2.3 Total number of doctoral graduates per institution (2012) 48 Table 2.4 Distribution of doctoral graduates per institutional type and field of study (1996–2012) 50 Table 2.5 Comparison of PhD production in South Africa with a number of selected OECD countries (2000 and 2011) 53 Chapter 3 Figure 3.1 Comparison of doctoral enrolments and graduates (1996–2012) 62 iv Figure 3.2 Percentages of new doctoral intakes who graduated after five and six years respectively (2003–2007) 64 Figure 3.3 Progress of 2006 intake of new doctoral students after seven years by bands of performance 65 Figure 3.4 Progress of 2006 intake of new doctoral students after seven years by fields of study 66 Figure 3.5 Dropout and completion rates of the 2006 new entering doctoral cohort 66 Figure 3.6 Progress of 2006 intake of new doctoral students at universities after seven years 67 Figure 3.7 Progress of 2006 intake of new doctoral students at comprehensive universities after seven years 68 Figure 3.8 Progress of 2006 intake of new doctoral students at universities of technology after seven years 68 Table 3.1 Number of PhDs and staff with doctorates by university (2011–2013) 78 Chapter 4 Figure 4.1 Doctoral enrolments by race (1996–2012) 87 Figure 4.2 Percentage of doctoral enrolments by race (1996–2012) 88 Figure 4.3 Doctoral graduates by race (1996–2012) 89 Figure 4.4 Percentage of doctoral graduates by race (1996–2012) 89 Figure 4.5 Percentage of doctoral enrolments by gender (1996–2012) 90 Figure 4.6 Graduates by gender (1996–2012) 90 Figure 4.7 PhD enrolments by nationality: Foreign vs South African (2000–2012) 92 Figure 4.8 PhD enrolments by nationality: Rest of Africa, international and South African (2000, 2004, 2008, 2012) 92 Figure 4.9 Disaggregation of doctoral enrolments by nationality (2012) 93 Figure 4.10 Proportion of PhD graduates by nationality: Foreign vs South African (2000, 2004, 2008, 2012) 93 Figure 4.11 PhD graduates by nationality (2000, 2004, 2008, 2012) 94 Figure 4.12 Average annual growth rates by nationality and gender (2000–2012) 95 Figure 4.13 Doctoral graduates by nationality (2012) 95 Figure 4.14 South African doctoral graduates by race (2012) 95 Figure 4.15 African doctoral enrolments by nationality and gender (2000 and 2012) 96 Figure 4.16 African doctoral graduates by nationality and gender (2000 and 2012) 96 Table 4.1 Doctoral graduates by race and gender (1971–1979) 85 Table 4.2 Doctoral graduates by race and gender (1986–1995) 85 Table 4.3 African doctoral enrolments and graduates from South Africa and the rest of Africa by gender (2000–2012) 97 Table 4.4 African and white doctoral graduates 1996 and 2012 compared to 30-to-49-year-old age cohort 98 v DOCTORAL EDUCATION IN SOUTH AFRICA Chapter 5 Figure5.1 Responses on supervisor guidance (2000) 110 Figure 5.2 Selection methods of PhD students supervised, by scientific field (2000) 111 Figure 5.3 Perceived importance of specified criteria for the selection of PhD students (2000) 112 Figure 5.4 Percentage of academic staff with doctorates (1996–2012) 113 Figure 5.5 Extent of agreement with statement ‘I sometimes have to supervise PhD work that lies outside my area of expertise’, by scientific field (2011) 117 Figure 5.6 Extent of agreement with statement ‘I lack sufficient time to give each PhD student the attention that he/she deserves’, by scientific field (2011) 117 Figure 5.7 Assessment of the quality of supervision by students (% rated as ‘excellent’ or ‘good’) (2000) 118 Figure 5.8 How doctoral studies prepared students for the world of work (2009) 121 Table 5.1 Academic staff with doctoral degrees and ratios of academic staff to doctoral students and graduates (1996–2012) 115 Table 5.2 Academic staff with doctoral degrees and ratios of academic staff to doctoral graduates by institutional type (2012) 115 Chapter 6 Table 6.1 Departments selected to explore the quantitative report on the HEMIS data 127 Chapter 8 Figure 8.1 2030 scenarios: Current (2%) average annual growth rate in student enrolments 201 Figure 8.2 2030 scenarios: High (4%) average annual growth rate in academic capacity 201 Table 8.1 Indicators for performance in doctoral production (2012) 209 Appendix 5 Table A1 PhD enrolments per institution type and broad field of study (1996 and 2012) 266 Table A2 PhD graduates per institutional type and broad field of study (1996 and 2012) 267 Table A3 PhDs by race and gender (1996–2012) 268 Table A4 Countries of origin of the 2012 international graduates 269 vi DOCTORAL EDUCATION IN SOUTH AFRICA Preface This book draws on a large number of studies conducted by the Centre for Higher Education Trust (CHET) and the Centre for Research on Evaluation, Science and Technology (CREST) over the past decade. In addition to these historical studies, primary research was also undertaken specifically to produce the evidence base for the statistical data referred to in the book. The historical studies focused on a range of issues that affect the growth, efficiency, quality and transformation of the doctorate in South Africa, doctoral supervision, and doctoral tracer studies as well as drawing on studies from the rest of Africa and the world. Although CREST’s first study on postgraduate studies dates back to 2001 when it did a case study of doctoral graduates at Stellenbosch University, its first major investigation into the state of the doctorate in South Africa began in 2008 when it was commissioned by the Academy of Science of South Africa to conduct five studies on the doctorate: (1) a study on systemic blockages in postgraduate education and training; (2) a statistical profile of doctoral students in South Africa; (3) an employer study; (4) a study on doctoral attrition; and (5) a destination study of doctoral students. These five studies would eventually be integrated into a consensus report (‘The PhD: An evidence-based study on how to meet the demands for high-level skills in an emerging economy’) which was published in 2010 (ASSAf 2010). The CREST reports were the result of a team effort of CREST staff but special mention should be made of the inputs of Nelius Boshoff, Lynn Lorenzen and Rein Treptow. At about the same time, a series of dialogue sessions and roundtable discussions were organised by CHET with the participation of the Council on Higher Education (CHE) and a number of researchers working on higher education policy issues. These dialogues resulted in two funded projects that became intertwined to form CHET’s first major study on the doctorate in South Africa: (1) ‘The successful cultivation of social science and humanities doctoral scholarship in South Africa’ supported by the Ford Foundation (2009–2011) and (2) ‘Toward national and regional policy dialogues for higher education experts and policy-makers in South Africa’ funded by Carnegie Corporation of New York (2009–2013).